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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s over-blown anti-Brussels rhetoric might boost her support but there’s a danger it might not

Theresa May accuses EU of meddling in UK general election https://t.co/x1MgS5b3TD

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    A pound shop Richard Nixon.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Second!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    May's damaged her 'strong and stable' brand. Now seen as slightly unhinged.

    @paulwaugh. We used to joke one day May wd end a No.10 spch with 'I have to tell you now that no such undertaking has been received..'
    Used to. #mayday
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    LordA a fan of May?

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/859809876691869696

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    The EU are forced to deny that they are trying to influence an election. If there was an admission that they were doing so, the shit would hit the fan in seconds. May has behaved like Lyndon Johnson not Richard Nixon, forcing her opponents to deny something through gritted teeth which she knows is untrue.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.

    We started a trade war with Germany so the Tories can win Chester at this election...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    Almost all the Tory gains since 2015 have come from UKIP, in electoral terms playing tough with the EU until the elections are over has few risks for May, especially as Tory Remainers are likely to stick with nurse for fear of Corbyn
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.

    We started a trade war with Germany so the Tories can win Chester at this election...
    Just like Jim Hacker and the Euro sausage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pound shop Richard Nixon.

    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.

    We started a trade war with Germany so the Tories can win Chester at this election...
    You'll both still be voting Conservative still though. And that is precisely why the landslide will be Uuuge.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pound shop Richard Nixon.

    Surely you mean pound shop Hillary Clinton?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.

    We started a trade war with Germany so the Tories can win Chester at this election...
    Just like Jim Hacker and the Euro sausage.
    Handbaging the EU should be a rite of passage for any PM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just like Jim Hacker and the Euro sausage.

    Except that was a fantas... Oh, wait, never mind.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I don't see much downside for her. After all, the other side are being unreasonable. If they back off, that's a win for her and for the country. If they don't, well, it helps ensure that the blame for failure is directed where it belongs, which is the headbangers in Brussels who want failure.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    You'll both still be voting Conservative still though.

    Not me
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pound shop Richard Nixon.

    Surely you mean pound shop Hillary Clinton?
    Hillary never enthused her base like May
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Prof Curtice:

    But while progressives have talked, those on the other side of the fence, who back Brexit, have walked. Without prompting, many a Ukip supporter seems to have decided that the best way of realising their vision of Brexit is to back May’s Conservatives. As a result, stopping the prime minister in her tracks has got that bit harder.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/03/regressive-alliance-stopping-tories-harder-ukip-brexit-conservatives
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Of course, if our EU friends want to improve the atmosphere, they have a very simple means to do so. They just need to let it be known that they too don't recognise the figures of €50bn to €100bn which have appeared in the press, and that they expect the final figure to be sensible when compared with the UK's annual membership cost.

    Sensible to you = Zero ?

    What if the UK have indeed signed commitments of whatever billions ? Are you saying UK should renege ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pound shop Richard Nixon.

    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.

    We started a trade war with Germany so the Tories can win Chester at this election...
    You'll both still be voting Conservative still though. And that is precisely why the landslide will be Uuuge.
    I'm voting Labour in Manchester Central. We can't lose Lucy Powell.

  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited May 2017
    dr_spyn - but Brussels did replace the governments in Greece, Italy and Spain less than ten years ago.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,883
    FPT
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Gallowgate, interesting to hear your thoughts (as a federalist).

    I am definitely not one of those. At the moment, a bit on the fence about whether May was wise to say what she did. However, I do think there's a lack of critical thinking from some in the media, when the EU leaks a spun version of events, lets rumours fly of their Danegeld demand rising from 60 to 100bn, and comes out with things like "Brexit cannot be a success".

    Hmm.

    Certainly. Prior to the referendum and for many years prior, I wanted ultimately that we would fully integrate. That meant the Euro, Schengen and to take a lead role in the EU like Germany. That doesn't mean I didn't think the EU needed reform, but that ultimately that the federalism vision was a good one.

    However, since the referendum, I've come to terms with the fact that this isn't Britain's destiny and that Europe (the continent) needs to make the best of it.

    I don't like the scornful and spiteful rhetoric coming from certain people within the EU establishment. I also don't like the rhetoric coming from people from the 'liberal elite' that our nation is nothing and that we should just bend over and take our punishment. European countries should be our allies, and we should be theirs. We should reach a mutually beneficial deal and be done with it.

    I'm a member of the Lib Dems, have been a Labour member in the past and have never ever voted Conservative, but May's pragmatism as someone who (allegedly) voted to remain to try and make the best of the situation is very endearing. I think it will win her a lot of votes. She isn't talking our nation down, unlike some people.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    FPT:
    I'm not sure if protocol permits me to speculate... but Theresa May’s ‘don’t mess with the Empire’ speech followed a half hour audience with Her Majesty the Queen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Curtice:

    But while progressives have talked, those on the other side of the fence, who back Brexit, have walked. Without prompting, many a Ukip supporter seems to have decided that the best way of realising their vision of Brexit is to back May’s Conservatives. As a result, stopping the prime minister in her tracks has got that bit harder.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/03/regressive-alliance-stopping-tories-harder-ukip-brexit-conservatives

    Ugh, a "regressive alliance". My opinion of Curtice went down a notch (what is the rank below psephological god?). And anyway, we prefer the term "Evil Empire"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    the blame for failure is directed where it belongs, which is the headbangers in Brussels who want failure.

    It seems nobody wants failure more than TMay

    @mattholehouse: Lancaster House speech. "Every stray word and every hyped up media report is going to make it harder." https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/859811108533784576/photo/1


    THEY ARE INTERFERING IN OUR ELECTION !!!!!!!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    Having seen her today, she needs help ! Seriously.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Has anyone come up with a decent theory what Juncker's handler thought he'd accomplish in leaking the dinner? Currying favour with Mutti? Is he looking for a role in German politics post EU?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Scott_P said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    the blame for failure is directed where it belongs, which is the headbangers in Brussels who want failure.

    It seems nobody wants failure more than TMay

    @mattholehouse: Lancaster House speech. "Every stray word and every hyped up media report is going to make it harder." https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/859811108533784576/photo/1


    THEY ARE INTERFERING IN OUR ELECTION !!!!!!!
    Well the response was after that stay word. They may now think twice before doing it again. They probably won't, but who knows.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Eviening all. - The PM’s speech was a shot across the bow to those meddling on the other side of the channel, it will appeal to those that already dislike the EU, beyond that, I doubt it will change a single vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,257
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.

    We started a trade war with Germany so the Tories can win Chester at this election...
    There will inevitably be a trade war of some form, there is next to zero chance of a free trade deal for at least 7 years or so if not more, it is just a question of whether some areas will be tariff free or how high they go. If May is shrewd she will start to turn Brexit into a battle between Merkel and Juncker's diktat and German domination and the outer EU, that way she can stir up anti Merkel feeling in Italy next year and in Greece
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited May 2017
    Who would have thought it? The Cameroons weren't really Conservatives after all..

    Why didn't anyone see the signs?! :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    surbiton said:

    Having seen her today, she needs help ! Seriously.

    I thought it wasn't PC to make jokes about mental illness these days?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    surbiton said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Of course, if our EU friends want to improve the atmosphere, they have a very simple means to do so. They just need to let it be known that they too don't recognise the figures of €50bn to €100bn which have appeared in the press, and that they expect the final figure to be sensible when compared with the UK's annual membership cost.

    Sensible to you = Zero ?

    What if the UK have indeed signed commitments of whatever billions ? Are you saying UK should renege ?
    Given our annual net contribution is around £13 billion - why would £26 billion become £50 or £100?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit

    So we are prepared to separate families ! Like North Korea.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,295
    SimonStClare said:

    Eviening all. - The PM’s speech was a shot across the bow to those meddling on the other side of the channel, it will appeal to those that already dislike the EU, beyond that, I doubt it will change a single vote.

    After all where exactly can any remain voting Tory supporter go?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    surbiton said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit

    So we are prepared to separate families ! Like North Korea.

    They chose to separate when only one came to the UK.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Corbyn accuses May of wrapping the Conservative Party in the Union Jack.

    This is the Conservative Party logo:

    image
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Corbyn accuses May of wrapping the Conservative Party in the Union Jack.

    This is the Conservative Party logo:

    image

    She'll be singing the National Anthem next
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    eek said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Eviening all. - The PM’s speech was a shot across the bow to those meddling on the other side of the channel, it will appeal to those that already dislike the EU, beyond that, I doubt it will change a single vote.

    After all where exactly can any remain voting Tory supporter go?
    Grindr
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Curtice:

    But while progressives have talked, those on the other side of the fence, who back Brexit, have walked. Without prompting, many a Ukip supporter seems to have decided that the best way of realising their vision of Brexit is to back May’s Conservatives. As a result, stopping the prime minister in her tracks has got that bit harder.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/03/regressive-alliance-stopping-tories-harder-ukip-brexit-conservatives

    Ugh, a "regressive alliance". My opinion of Curtice went down a notch (what is the rank below psephological god?). And anyway, we prefer the term "Evil Empire"
    Did he write that or did the Guardian? I believe headlines are often written by a paper without the article authors knowledge.

    EDIT: The word regressive does not appear in the article body at all.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    eek said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Eviening all. - The PM’s speech was a shot across the bow to those meddling on the other side of the channel, it will appeal to those that already dislike the EU, beyond that, I doubt it will change a single vote.

    After all where exactly can any remain voting Tory supporter go?
    Liberal Democrat ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    edited May 2017
    I eagerly anticipate the thread condemning the EU's 'Brit-bashing' by circulating £100bn exit bill rumours, leaking private matters, and warning that our country cannot be allowed to succeed.

    Not sure whether it was wise of May to speak in the way she did, but I do agree with Mr. (Tim) T on the previous thread about the importance of not being bullied.

    And the final point in the article cannot be disagreed with. May has clearly driven the agenda.

    Mr. D, quite. It is a silly term.

    Mr. Gallowgate, cheers for that thoughtful post.

    Corbyn does make things rather simpler. If Labour were led by a leader who wasn't off his rocker, it'd be a more complicated political picture. But then, May wouldn't've called an election.

    Mr. Glenn, has she?

    I know opinions are divided on what she said, but has anyone who was previously pro-May criticised it? Has anyone who was previously anti-May condemned it?

    Edited extra bit: anti-May praised* it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    RobD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Curtice:

    But while progressives have talked, those on the other side of the fence, who back Brexit, have walked. Without prompting, many a Ukip supporter seems to have decided that the best way of realising their vision of Brexit is to back May’s Conservatives. As a result, stopping the prime minister in her tracks has got that bit harder.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/03/regressive-alliance-stopping-tories-harder-ukip-brexit-conservatives

    Ugh, a "regressive alliance". My opinion of Curtice went down a notch (what is the rank below psephological god?). And anyway, we prefer the term "Evil Empire"
    I think that's the headline writer's mistake - it's not a term in Curtice' article
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Corbyn accuses May of wrapping the Conservative Party in the Union Jack.

    This is the Conservative Party logo:

    image

    Trees are May, not green.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,295
    Gallowgate said:

    FPT

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Gallowgate, interesting to hear your thoughts (as a federalist).

    I am definitely not one of those. At the moment, a bit on the fence about whether May was wise to say what she did. However, I do think there's a lack of critical thinking from some in the media, when the EU leaks a spun version of events, lets rumours fly of their Danegeld demand rising from 60 to 100bn, and comes out with things like "Brexit cannot be a success".

    Hmm.

    Certainly. Prior to the referendum and for many years prior, I wanted ultimately that we would fully integrate. That meant the Euro, Schengen and to take a lead role in the EU like Germany. That doesn't mean I didn't think the EU needed reform, but that ultimately that the federalism vision was a good one.

    However, since the referendum, I've come to terms with the fact that this isn't Britain's destiny and that Europe (the continent) needs to make the best of it.

    I don't like the scornful and spiteful rhetoric coming from certain people within the EU establishment. I also don't like the rhetoric coming from people from the 'liberal elite' that our nation is nothing and that we should just bend over and take our punishment. European countries should be our allies, and we should be theirs. We should reach a mutually beneficial deal and be done with it.

    I'm a member of the Lib Dems, have been a Labour member in the past and have never ever voted Conservative, but May's pragmatism as someone who (allegedly) voted to remain to try and make the best of the situation is very endearing. I think it will win her a lot of votes. She isn't talking our nation down, unlike some people.
    The conclusion I came to during the referendum was that it was better all round for the UK to leave to allow the rest of the EU to integrate without us on the sidelines holding them back....

    Nothing I have seen since has changed my opinion that we are both better off with the UK outside the EU (although I understand the problems that gives Ireland)...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    How batshit crazy does Tezza's statement need to be to make Corbyn's response look sober and sensible?

    @faisalislam: Corbyn re May saying he is the risk: "The risk to this country is a Govt that sets up megaphone diplomacy ahead of serious negotiations"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A pound shop Richard Nixon.

    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's good short term tactics with an election coming up but a terrible long term strategy.

    We started a trade war with Germany so the Tories can win Chester at this election...
    You'll both still be voting Conservative still though. And that is precisely why the landslide will be Uuuge.
    I'm voting Labour in Manchester Central. We can't lose Lucy Powell.

    Always knew you were a lefty socialist Traitor Pig-Dog! :lol:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    May's message is clear - if you are not for her you are against the UK. It will be extremely effective. Some more thoughtful Tories might wonder whether it is a healthy message from someone who claims to want to bring the country together, but it seems that there are not many of them around currently.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    It's spin, to get her electoral advantage. Obviously the EU side is spinning too. Falsely claiming the EU is perverting the election goes way beyond the line, I think, particularly with the implied comparisons with Putin. Mind you, she probably wasn't happy to be described as being on a different galaxy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited May 2017
    eek said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Eviening all. - The PM’s speech was a shot across the bow to those meddling on the other side of the channel, it will appeal to those that already dislike the EU, beyond that, I doubt it will change a single vote.

    After all where exactly can any remain voting Tory supporter go?
    I'm staying inside the tent, pissing in.

    I'll have been a member of the Tory Party for twenty years this Saturday.

    If things go well tonight, I'll be helping to try and elect a Leaver as Tory MP in Don Valley over the next few weeks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    williamglenn said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    Corbyn accuses May of wrapping the Conservative Party in the Union Jack.

    This is the Conservative Party logo:

    image

    Trees are May, not green.
    I keep getting handed your coat for some reason? :D
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    surbiton said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/may-expected-to-challenge-right-of-eu-citizens-to-bring-family-to-britain-non-european-spouses-brexit

    So we are prepared to separate families ! Like North Korea.

    No, like Britain - it just applies to EU citizens rules applied to British ones and was in the 2015 Conservtive manifesto.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2017
    surbiton said:

    Sensible to you = Zero ?

    What if the UK have indeed signed commitments of whatever billions ? Are you saying UK should renege ?

    Of course we shouldn't renege. We have legal obligations to pay our dues until we leave. There might be some small further obligations, but clearly it is impossible to imagine that these could be anything more than a year or maybe at a push two years' worth of our annual bill. And there is a strong case, as the Lords report concluded, for thinking that it might well be zero. If there's no trade deal, zero should be our position; it would be bonkers to pay up megabucks for nothing. If relations have broken down to the extent that we are regarded as no more partners of the EU than Vietnam or Columbia are, why would we want to pay anything more than Vietnam or Columbia pay?

    That's the worst case for both side. A 'sensible' amount, which the EU should be seeking, would be an agreement by us to pay a proportion of our existing net costs for a transitional period. Amount and timing to be negotiated, but off the top of my head something like 50% in the first year after Brexit, dropping over three years to zero, might be reasonable. In addition we would of course contribute to any specific programmes we sign back into, such as Europol. In return for this, we'd expect a comprehensive trade deal.

    That is the basis of a possible deal, although obviously there's room to haggle over the percentages and duration. The EU need to decide what they want, that or €0bn and massive trade disruption. I don't know which they'll go for, but, realistically, that's what they can have.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    Weak and Wobbly.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    surbiton said:

    Having seen her today, she needs help ! Seriously.

    I have been watching The Crown on Netflix .The Queen asked Churchill if he was fit enough to carry on in the early fifties.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    So we are going to something about EU trafficked women being forced into marriage as an immigration scam.

    Every so often there is a report of EU immigrants being held in slave conditions - a few months ago there was a police raid on a hand wash garage a few miles away from me. But I have never heard of any european government expressing any concerns about their people at all.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I don't see much downside for her. After all, the other side are being unreasonable. If they back off, that's a win for her and for the country. If they don't, well, it helps ensure that the blame for failure is directed where it belongs, which is the headbangers in Brussels who want failure.

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure. They are loving it. Her problems begin once this election is won. Fighting them on the beaches and never surrendering is all well and good in abstract. It gets a bit more serious when it happens. How long will people tolerate reductions in living standards for the sake of a few billion quid just so that wealthy Brexiteers can indulge their Churchill fantasies?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    IanB2 said:

    Weak and Wobbly.

    But that's enough about Corbyn and Abbott!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    FF43 said:

    It's spin, to get her electoral advantage. Obviously the EU side is spinning too. Falsely claiming the EU is perverting the election goes way beyond the line, I think, particularly with the implied comparisons with Putin. Mind you, she probably wasn't happy to be described as being on a different galaxy.

    The Junker leak and the UK media’s reaction provided all the ammunition TMay needed.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    CarlottaVance said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Of course, if our EU friends want to improve the atmosphere, they have a very simple means to do so. They just need to let it be known that they too don't recognise the figures of €50bn to €100bn which have appeared in the press, and that they expect the final figure to be sensible when compared with the UK's annual membership cost.

    Sensible to you = Zero ?

    What if the UK have indeed signed commitments of whatever billions ? Are you saying UK should renege ?
    Given our annual net contribution is around £13 billion - why would £26 billion become £50 or £100?
    Carlotta, the annual NET contribution is indeed net as it says. But the EU gross budget runs into hundreds of billions. In 2014 [ I think ], the EU finalised their budget, partly at Britain's insistence, that it should run until 2020. All 28 countries signed the budget.

    We would be in a strong position not to pay on any spend after 2020. But legally I am not sure how we can not pay until 2020 unless we want to sour relations with the EU countries.

    Remember one thing: if the UK does not pay [ we do not know the actual figure, at the moment it is all hot air ], the other 27 will have to pick up the tab. No one will be happy.

    If our strategy is divide and rule, then the chances of Latvia siding with us, after they have been told they would have to pick up €3bn, say, of the spend, is most unlikely.

    I hope I have made it as clear as possible.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Judging by the people who are reacting badly to May's speech, I infer it was a great success.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,295
    FF43 said:

    It's spin, to get her electoral advantage. Obviously the EU side is spinning too. Falsely claiming the EU is perverting the election goes way beyond the line, I think, particularly with the implied comparisons with Putin. Mind you, she probably wasn't happy to be described as being on a different galaxy.

    What is talking about a private meeting if not trying to influence things?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,064
    I don't think it's hard to come to a conclusion about T may's extraordinary speech.

    1. She's a second rate politician

    2. She's prepared to put short term electoral advantage (if that's what it is) at the expense of a good deal.

    If it's 2. then it confirms 1.

    Corbyn for all his faults is looking more honourable by the minute.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I don't see much downside for her. After all, the other side are being unreasonable. If they back off, that's a win for her and for the country. If they don't, well, it helps ensure that the blame for failure is directed where it belongs, which is the headbangers in Brussels who want failure.

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure. They are loving it. Her problems begin once this election is won. Fighting them on the beaches and never surrendering is all well and good in abstract. It gets a bit more serious when it happens. How long will people tolerate reductions in living standards for the sake of a few billion quid just so that wealthy Brexiteers can indulge their Churchill fantasies?

    She's pitching to Junker? Could have fooled me. :smiley:
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited May 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I don't see much downside for her. After all, the other side are being unreasonable. If they back off, that's a win for her and for the country. If they don't, well, it helps ensure that the blame for failure is directed where it belongs, which is the headbangers in Brussels who want failure.

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure. They are loving it. Her problems begin once this election is won. Fighting them on the beaches and never surrendering is all well and good in abstract. It gets a bit more serious when it happens. How long will people tolerate reductions in living standards for the sake of a few billion quid just so that wealthy Brexiteers can indulge their Churchill fantasies?

    The spirit of the plucky ne'er do well Remainers in Richmond Park and Kensington will be too much for those wealthy Leave voters from Thurrock and Hartlepool in the end..

    Eton Rifles, Eton Rifles!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Eviening all. - The PM’s speech was a shot across the bow to those meddling on the other side of the channel, it will appeal to those that already dislike the EU, beyond that, I doubt it will change a single vote.

    After all where exactly can any remain voting Tory supporter go?
    I'm staying inside the tent, pissing in.

    I'll have been a member of the Tory Party for twenty years this Saturday.

    If things go well tonight, I'll be helping to try and elect a Leaver as Tory MP in Don Valley over the next few weeks.
    Good on you, sir!
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    edited May 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    surbiton said:

    Sensible to you = Zero ?

    What if the UK have indeed signed commitments of whatever billions ? Are you saying UK should renege ?

    Of course we shouldn't renege. We have legal obligations to pay our dues until we leave. There might be some small further obligations, but clearly it is impossible to imagine that these could be anything more than a year or maybe at a push two years' worth of our annual bill. And there is a strong case, as the Lords report concluded, for thinking that it might well be zero. If there's no trade deal, zero should be our position; it would be bonkers to pay up megabucks for nothing. If relations have broken down to the extent that we are regarded as no more partners of the EU than Vietnam or Columbia are, why would we want to pay anything more than Vietnam or Columbia pay?

    That's the worst case for both side. A 'sensible' amount, which the EU should be seeking, would be an agreement by us to pay a proportion of our existing net costs for a transitional period. Amount and timing to be negotiated, but off the top of my head something like 50% in the first year after Brexit, dropping over three years to zero, might be reasonable. In addition we would of course contribute to any specific programmes we sign back into, such as Europol. In return for this, we'd expect a comprehensive trade deal.

    That is the basis of a possible deal, although obviously there's room to haggle over the percentages and duration. The EU need to decide what they want, that or €0bn and massive trade disruption. I don't know which they'll go for, but, realistically, that's what they can have.
    When the dust settles, and there will be plenty of it, we'll have Theresa May rocking up to the 22nd June Council of Ministers with a stonking majority in her back pocket and a smile on her face. Deal or no deal, girl and boys?
    And the deal will be along Richard's lines above. They'll call it cherry picking, we'll call it compromise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Scott_P said:

    How batshit crazy does Tezza's statement need to be to make Corbyn's response look sober and sensible?

    @faisalislam: Corbyn re May saying he is the risk: "The risk to this country is a Govt that sets up megaphone diplomacy ahead of serious negotiations"

    So it is okay for the Commission to use megaphone diplomacy, but not the UK?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SouthamObserver said:

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure.

    No she's not. She's pitching to those who want a deal but are worried that the EU are being unreasonable.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Judging by the people who are reacting badly to May's speech, I infer it was a great success.

    The PM’s plan to get Diane Abbott off the front pages has been a startling success…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    How batshit crazy does Tezza's statement need to be to make Corbyn's response look sober and sensible?

    @faisalislam: Corbyn re May saying he is the risk: "The risk to this country is a Govt that sets up megaphone diplomacy ahead of serious negotiations"

    So it is okay for the Commission to use megaphone diplomacy, but not the UK?
    They get to "cherry pick" too. Haven't you been paying attention?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited May 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure.

    No she's not. She's pitching to those who want a deal but are worried that the EU are being unreasonable.
    That's me, it annoys me that the EU is apparently allowed to make endless demands and leak how stupid they think we are and that's cool, but I still she overdid it. Unnecessarily to boot. But I don't think there will be that much impact for or against her, and people are seriously overreacting, given she had most of the votes of those who will be buoyed by her language, and the people getting vapors about it are seriously overdoing it.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    surbiton said:

    Sensible to you = Zero ?

    What if the UK have indeed signed commitments of whatever billions ? Are you saying UK should renege ?

    Of course we shouldn't renege. We have legal obligations to pay our dues until we leave. There might be some small further obligations, but clearly it is impossible to imagine that these could be anything more than a year or maybe at a push two years' worth of our annual bill. And there is a strong case, as the Lords report concluded, for thinking that it might well be zero. If there's no trade deal, zero should be our position; it would be bonkers to pay up megabucks for nothing. If relations have broken down to the extent that we are regarded as no more partners of the EU than Vietnam or Columbia are, why would we want to pay anything more than Vietnam or Columbia pay?

    That's the worst case for both side. A 'sensible' amount, which the EU should be seeking, would be an agreement by us to pay a proportion of our existing net costs for a transitional period. Amount and timing to be negotiated, but off the top of my head something like 50% in the first year after Brexit, dropping over three years to zero, might be reasonable. In addition we would of course contribute to any specific programmes we sign back into, such as Europol. In return for this, we'd expect a comprehensive trade deal.

    That is the basis of a possible deal, although obviously there's room to haggle over the percentages and duration. The EU need to decide what they want, that or €0bn and massive trade disruption. I don't know which they'll go for, but, realistically, that's what they can have.
    I think the chances of a comprehensive trade deal have disappeared. We always overestimated our importance to the EU as a market. Yes we import something like €600bn a year [ or something like that ] but even under WTO, it will not suddenly become zero. In any event, many of the imports have to be kept going for our supply chain. [ for a few years , at least ].

    I cannot read May very well. But hard brexiters can now look forward to their beloved Empire II.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,295
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Weak and Wobbly.

    But that's enough about Corbyn and Abbott!
    A read that as Abbott and Costello at first glance...
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    May warned about the dangers of leaking and running commentaries. She kept to her word, but as soon as Juncker et al started to play silly buggers, she shut them down. Not a stray word, not a leak, straight out with it, on the steps of No10. Got the message?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    So it is okay for the Commission to use megaphone diplomacy, but not the UK?

    When the Minister for Brexit said on live TV "megaphone diplomacy is not helpful" I think it's fair to assume that the PM engaging in megaphone diplomacy is "not helpful"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Curtice:

    But while progressives have talked, those on the other side of the fence, who back Brexit, have walked. Without prompting, many a Ukip supporter seems to have decided that the best way of realising their vision of Brexit is to back May’s Conservatives. As a result, stopping the prime minister in her tracks has got that bit harder.


    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/03/regressive-alliance-stopping-tories-harder-ukip-brexit-conservatives

    "Before the election announcement nearly two-thirds (64%) of those who voted Ukip in 2015 told ICM that they would vote for the party again. Around a quarter (26%) said they would vote Conservative. Very few of those who backed the party in 2015 said they would vote Labour (6%) or the Liberal Democrats (2%). Now, however, only half of those who voted Ukip two years ago say they would do so again. The proportions who say they would vote Labour or Liberal Democrat have barely changed. But as many as two-fifths (41%) say they will vote Conservative."

    2% of UKIP voters going to the LibDems. 41% of UKIP voters going to the Tories. That - coupled with extremely high retention rates of 2015 Tories - is why the LibDems are making no headway in this election.

    Selling LibDem seats looks to be the no-brainer in this election.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    Roger said:

    I don't think it's hard to come to a conclusion about T may's extraordinary speech.

    1. She's a second rate politician

    2. She's prepared to put short term electoral advantage (if that's what it is) at the expense of a good deal.

    If it's 2. then it confirms 1.

    Corbyn for all his faults is looking more honourable by the minute.

    When the public realise that they have been duped, probably some time in 2018/19, the backlash is going to be something to behold!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    surbiton said:

    I think the chances of a comprehensive trade deal have disappeared. I cannot read May very well. But hard brexiters can now look forward to their beloved Empire II.

    If they've disappeared, it's entirely because the EU don't want to do a deal.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,064
    As slippery as an eel. Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid

    Time for those who had given up on Corbyn to think again.

    I think she might have inadvertently made a contest of what was previously a forgone conclusion.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. D, quite. There is a double standard applied.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure.

    No she's not. She's pitching to those who want a deal but are worried that the EU are being unreasonable.

    Yeah, right. let's see the headlines in the Mail , the Express, the Telegraph and the Sun tomorrow. She has made clear that anyone who opposes her is an enemy of the UK.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    eek said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Weak and Wobbly.

    But that's enough about Corbyn and Abbott!
    A read that as Abbott and Costello at first glance...
    You could laugh out loud at Abbot and Costello.

    Oh.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    She has gone full Trump

    @davidschneider: Those of a different opinion are "extremists", Brussels is trying to rig the election. She's that close to saying Make Britain Great Again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Roger said:

    I don't think it's hard to come to a conclusion about T may's extraordinary speech.

    1. She's a second rate politician

    2. She's prepared to put short term electoral advantage (if that's what it is) at the expense of a good deal.

    If it's 2. then it confirms 1.

    Corbyn for all his faults is looking more honourable by the minute.

    No he isn't. TMay might well be second rate, and putting electoral advantage over a good deal - although frankly it seems we and the EU have both resigned ourselves to that - but she is still provably qualified for the job, she might make poor decisions for the country, but they will be among an expected range of options. Corbyn is simply not up to any aspect of it, and his honourableness, which in any case is questionable, would not be enough to over come that.

    TMay is the Clinton to Corbyn's Trump to that respect.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    SouthamObserver said:

    May's message is clear - if you are not for her you are against the UK. It will be extremely effective. Some more thoughtful Tories might wonder whether it is a healthy message from someone who claims to want to bring the country together, but it seems that there are not many of them around currently.

    Yes, there has been a 'them vs us' tone that isn't particularly helpful.

    Meanwhile, the Republican attitude to the notion of universal healthcare is a wonder to behold.

  • eekeek Posts: 31,295
    surbiton said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    surbiton said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Of course, if our EU friends want to improve the atmosphere, they have a very simple means to do so. They just need to let it be known that they too don't recognise the figures of €50bn to €100bn which have appeared in the press, and that they expect the final figure to be sensible when compared with the UK's annual membership cost.

    Sensible to you = Zero ?

    What if the UK have indeed signed commitments of whatever billions ? Are you saying UK should renege ?
    Given our annual net contribution is around £13 billion - why would £26 billion become £50 or £100?
    Carlotta, the annual NET contribution is indeed net as it says. But the EU gross budget runs into hundreds of billions. In 2014 [ I think ], the EU finalised their budget, partly at Britain's insistence, that it should run until 2020. All 28 countries signed the budget.

    We would be in a strong position not to pay on any spend after 2020. But legally I am not sure how we can not pay until 2020 unless we want to sour relations with the EU countries.

    Remember one thing: if the UK does not pay [ we do not know the actual figure, at the moment it is all hot air ], the other 27 will have to pick up the tab. No one will be happy.

    If our strategy is divide and rule, then the chances of Latvia siding with us, after they have been told they would have to pick up €3bn, say, of the spend, is most unlikely.

    I hope I have made it as clear as possible.
    Legally I suspect we don't have to pay beyond March 29 2019, morally we should pay until the end of the 2020 budget...

    That doesn't however mean we can't get (try to get) something for it....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure.

    No she's not. She's pitching to those who want a deal but are worried that the EU are being unreasonable.
    That's me, it annoys me that the EU is apparently allowed to make endless demands and leak how stupid they think we are and that's cool, but I still she overdid it. Unnecessarily to boot. But I don't think there will be that much impact for or against her, and people are seriously overreacting, given she had most of the votes of those who will be buoyed by her language, and the people getting vapors about it are seriously overdoing it.
    If you take away the bellicosity of her rhetoric, her biggest tactical error is openly trying to set the EU27 against Brussels. It will just increase the doubts about the UK's trustworthiness and make the EU think that our real strategic objective is to break it up.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    SouthamObserver said:

    Yeah, right. let's see the headlines in the Mail , the Express, the Telegraph and the Sun tomorrow. She has made clear that anyone who opposes her is an enemy of the UK.

    Yes, she's proving rather a formidable politician.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    edited May 2017
    Baskerville said:

    May warned about the dangers of leaking and running commentaries. She kept to her word, but as soon as Juncker et al started to play silly buggers, she shut them down. Not a stray word, not a leak, straight out with it, on the steps of No10. Got the message?

    Yeah Remoaners have been chortling about the obviously partisan leaks all week, and now May has slapped Juncker down it's apparently May who has overstepped the mark not the leakers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Ms. Apocalypse, the likes of Juncker saying 'Brexit cannot be a success' is also Us versus Them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Yeah, right. let's see the headlines in the Mail , the Express, the Telegraph and the Sun tomorrow. She has made clear that anyone who opposes her is an enemy of the UK.

    Yes, she's proving rather a formidable politician.
    That's a necessary precondition to achieving a truly spectacular failure. See the previous incumbent for details. May looks like beating him on both counts.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Theresa May is unhinged. Perhaps dangerously so.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Roger said:

    I don't think it's hard to come to a conclusion about T may's extraordinary speech.

    1. She's a second rate politician

    2. She's prepared to put short term electoral advantage (if that's what it is) at the expense of a good deal.

    If it's 2. then it confirms 1.

    Corbyn for all his faults is looking more honourable by the minute.

    I forget, is she a bitch on heat, a pure bitch, or now, a dumb bitch? You and your fellow travellers are the experts.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I don't see much downside for her. After all, the other side are being unreasonable. If they back off, that's a win for her and for the country. If they don't, well, it helps ensure that the blame for failure is directed where it belongs, which is the headbangers in Brussels who want failure.

    May is pitching to the head-bangers here who want failure. They are loving it. Her problems begin once this election is won. Fighting them on the beaches and never surrendering is all well and good in abstract. It gets a bit more serious when it happens. How long will people tolerate reductions in living standards for the sake of a few billion quid just so that wealthy Brexiteers can indulge their Churchill fantasies?

    The spirit of the plucky ne'er do well Remainers in Richmond Park and Kensington will be too much for those wealthy Leave voters from Thurrock and Hartlepool in the end..

    Eton Rifles, Eton Rifles!

    Of course, Eton Rifles is all about the posh boys always winning. The good people of Richmond Park and Kensington will be fine. It's Leave voters in Thurrock and Hartlepool that have most to lose in the case of a rock hard Brexit - the one they were told would never, ever happen. Wealthy Brexiteers seem to expect that a bit of Cod Churchill and a few digs at Johnny Foreigner will see them through. I am not so sure. Hopefully, we won't get to find out.

  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Yeah, right. let's see the headlines in the Mail , the Express, the Telegraph and the Sun tomorrow. She has made clear that anyone who opposes her is an enemy of the UK.

    Yes, she's proving rather a formidable politician.
    Remember when May was "weak", "indecisive", "invisible" and the like?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SouthamObserver said:

    May's message is clear - if you are not for her you are against the UK. It will be extremely effective. Some more thoughtful Tories might wonder whether it is a healthy message from someone who claims to want to bring the country together, but it seems that there are not many of them around currently.

    I am sure they are some like Francis Pym from the 80s who will speak out eventually.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    The_Apocalypse said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    May's message is clear - if you are not for her you are against the UK. It will be extremely effective. Some more thoughtful Tories might wonder whether it is a healthy message from someone who claims to want to bring the country together, but it seems that there are not many of them around currently.

    Yes, there has been a 'them vs us' tone that isn't particularly helpful.

    That's just what the other side want you to think!

    In all seriousness, particularly around election time, partisan idiots rule the roost and even sensible politicians go a bit batty and pander to the worst of each of their sides. The extent of May's rhetoric was unnecessary, but the thinking behind it is as old as elections, and at the moment the best hope we can have is people will calm the fuck down in a few months.

    But the principle facts haven't changed. I have a vote in the locals tomorrow, and since two parties haven't bothered even leafleting me, I'm not voting for them, leaving the LDs and Labour, and no Labour candidate will get my vote so long as Corbyn is who the party tells me should be Prime Minister, that he embodies where they want the party to go. Officially, that is what the party tells me.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,064
    IanB2 said:

    Roger said:

    I don't think it's hard to come to a conclusion about T may's extraordinary speech.

    1. She's a second rate politician

    2. She's prepared to put short term electoral advantage (if that's what it is) at the expense of a good deal.

    If it's 2. then it confirms 1.

    Corbyn for all his faults is looking more honourable by the minute.

    When the public realise that they have been duped, probably some time in 2018/19, the backlash is going to be something to behold!
    I think she's been popping those pills that Trump's been taking.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    surbiton said:

    I think the chances of a comprehensive trade deal have disappeared. I cannot read May very well. But hard brexiters can now look forward to their beloved Empire II.

    If they've disappeared, it's entirely because the EU don't want to do a deal.
    But we were told by Leavers [ you were NOT one of them; remember you were a Cameroon ] that the EU desperately needed our markets.

    Both statements cannot be correct.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    The dogmatists in Brussels started off in charge of the EU position. After all, it’s their full time job. But, as time goes by and practicalities are considered, they find themselves at risk of being reined in by more pragmatic voices in the national capitals, who have taken longer to organise themselves – not least because they have other things to occupy their time.

    It’s no great surprise, then, that Juncker, dogmatist in chief, is now leaking stories that paint himself as simply a reasonable guy, trying to be practical in the face of outrageous demands from London. He appears to be trying to reassure a German audience that he isn’t putting the ideology of Eurofederalism ahead of the real life interests of the EU’s residents – even though this has always been the EU project’s nature, as the unemployed 23.5 per cent of Greeks can attest.

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/junckers-leak-wasnt-us-part-internal-eu-battle/
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