politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much
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The EU couldn't care less who leads Britain, though it is obviously very heavy odds on to be May.
It is about as relevant to their position as exactly who the President of Mexico is to Trump.0 -
What do you think the purpose of the leak, Alastair ?AlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
It is interesting that a report this morning states that Theresa May spoke to Donald Tusk some time ago over this subject and suggested it could be resolved by the end of June but the EU refused to consider it before agreement on exit costs, but did not want this to get out as it would anger citizens across the EU as the EU themselves were using the citizens themselves as bargaining chips and not the UKfoxinsoxuk said:
I don't think the Europeans care whether May has a bigger majority or not. They have never suggested the Brexit vote is reversed. It is irrelevant to them. What they see is a pig-headed refusal by May to realise that complex negotiations are not simple even for a WTO Hard Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
The European consensual style of coalition politics is very different to our oppositional adversarial style. Euro-politicians are constantly negotiating with political opponents, while ours are constantly rubbishing the opposition. To a consensual politician, May's position looks like a refusal to negotiate seriously.
I think Juncker is right on the issue. I do not think that the rights of EU citizens in the UK will be clear by the end of June0 -
Not least because the EU has refused to engage on the topic since last year......foxinsoxuk said:
I do not think that the rights of EU citizens in the UK will be clear by the end of JuneBig_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
Largely to communicate with a German audience of opinion formers about the difficulties ahead. I've no doubt that the leak was self-serving and partial. If the talks fail, as looks likely, the aim is to be able to say that it was doomed from the start.Nigelb said:
What do you think the purpose of the leak, Alastair ?AlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
I'd love to vote for someone who might defeat Mrs May. Her narcississism is statrting to grate as much as William Hague's accent used to. 'Could I live with this voice for the next five years' has now been replaced by 'does Mrs May realise she part of a political party not an absolute monarch'.
She's unbelievably lucky to be facing Jeremy.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Dr. Foxinsox, sorry to hear that. It's also disheartening to see that there appear to be some decisions of dubious quality being received by EU citizens who have been here a long time and are applying for leave to remain indefinitely, with solid grounds for doing so.
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The problem is that the EU is trying to negotiate the mechanisms of a (hard) Brexit, while our own politicians want to retain some privileges of membership that are not on offer, ie soft Brexit.CarlottaVance said:
As opposed to 'Leavers who said the EU would not negotiate in good faith'?AlastairMeeks said:
Can I therefore include you as the inaugural member of "Leavers who are prepared to admit that exit negotiations are proving much harder than we expected"?kle4 said:It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing.
Exhibit 1 Brexit cannot be a success
It is not a matter of good faith, it is a fundamental mismatch of goals. The EU is trying to negotiate process and our government has not decided what it wants. Soft Brexit has never been on the table.-1 -
And there's more......
Britain is accused of having 'no idea how Brussels works' as EU sources warn 'Brexit will fail' in yet another bitter attack on Theresa May's plans
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4464888/Britain-no-idea-Brussels-works-say-EU-sources.html#ixzz4fu2OLK1v0 -
A friend built a sound business teaching medical English to Portuguese nurses. That's gone down the bed pan sluice of course.foxinsoxuk said:
A number of our Iberian nurses have decided the same. I suspect more will follow. Brexit is a lose-lose arrangement.Bromptonaut said:
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.
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Missing words round from 1997 submitted by John McDonnell.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/omeka-net/29208/archive/files/dd9aef3153eb43ed1f43ac5dd6d5bb13.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAI3ATG3OSQLO5HGKA&Expires=1493751897&Signature=TusVvg7yCnzrvjWg259qXtNCxU4=
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Yes yes, we all know the apocalypse is coming and all that. Surely the more critical point at this stage, if one believes that, is how much things can be mitigated. There's bad, and then there's bad.foxinsoxuk said:
A number of our Iberian nurses have decided the same. I suspect more will follow. Brexit is a lose-lose arrangement.Bromptonaut said:
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sicst not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.
If a fire takes hold in the kitchen it might well be impossible to make a success of the House, as it were, but that doesn't mean sitting back and letting the entire house burn down has the same effect as putting the fire out.
If every single thing we ask for is indeed unreasonable, as the eu claims, and in the absence of a LD majority government on June 9th, then whether we wanted no Brexit or soft Brexit or any other variation is pointless now, and preparations for no deal should begin immediately.0 -
I do have great respect for your views but on Brexit you do seem to want to reduce it to them and us.AlastairMeeks said:
I've now given the question the three seconds thought it merits.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is a simple question and I do not understand why you cannot give an answerAlastairMeeks said:
I haven't really given the question any thought either way. It is pointless to do so.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Still no answer. I assume that you agree that this has been good for TMAlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
The cultist Leavers will rally behind Theresa May and foam wildly about drunken Eurocrats leaking (forgetting how excited they were when Michael Gove planted a story on the Sun's front page about the Queen's views on Brexit).
Remainers will have all their own default prejudices confirmed about the idiocy of the UK's negotiating stance.
The general public will see foreigners being rude in foreign about the British government's approach and will have a spasm of insular loyalty.
It will all be forgotten about by Friday.
You can correct me if I have misinterpreted your comments but you do seem to agree that this has enhanced TM in the eyes of the ordinary voter in the street0 -
Morning all.
Ah, Friday’s ‘big psephological debate’ a Knickerbocker glory of cherry picking while those that should know better, attempt to compare apples with pairs. Good luck with that…
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Unless they're incredibly silly they'll remember the negative impact Obama had with his referendum intervention. And he was popular in the UK. Not something many Eurocrats can claim.AlastairMeeks said:
Do you think, given current polling, the EU is going to waste much time trying to influence the outcome of the present election?CarlottaVance said:
The EU are indifferent to any leverage they have over elected politicians in their negotiations?AlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
It's a view.....0 -
Miss Vance, given we've been in the EU and its forerunner for four decades, if we have no idea how it works then perhaps it's not surprising we want to leave it.0
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Wait until Boris spells it out about the BMWs and prosecco...CarlottaVance said:And there's more......
Britain is accused of having 'no idea how Brussels works' as EU sources warn 'Brexit will fail' in yet another bitter attack on Theresa May's plans
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4464888/Britain-no-idea-Brussels-works-say-EU-sources.html#ixzz4fu2OLK1v0 -
Since the BBC couldn't find a single programme they had produced that actually put the case for Brexit this is not really a surprise.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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The wish is father to the thought.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..0 -
If there is a pattern in UK politics it's the higher you rise,the harder you fall. May should enjoy her day in the sun. What follows could well be brutal.Roger said:I'd love to vote for someone who might defeat Mrs May. Her narcississism is statrting to grate as much as William Hague's accent used to. 'Could I live with this voice for the next five years' has now been replaced by 'does Mrs May realise she part of a political party not an absolute monarch'.
She's unbelievably lucky to be facing Jeremy.0 -
Guaranteed to add to the Gaiety of the Nation........and jolly useful for confusing Johnny Foreigner too......and the rest of us.....williamglenn said:
Wait until Boris spells it out about the BMWs and prosecco...CarlottaVance said:And there's more......
Britain is accused of having 'no idea how Brussels works' as EU sources warn 'Brexit will fail' in yet another bitter attack on Theresa May's plans
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4464888/Britain-no-idea-Brussels-works-say-EU-sources.html#ixzz4fu2OLK1v0 -
Perhaps the Lib Dems could produce (another) dodgy bar chart to show us how well they are doing.0
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Hearty Brexit celebrations in Hartlipool
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3443568/ukip-fight-hartlepool-paul-nuttall-campaign/0 -
Maybe so, but by your logic there's nothing the eu wants to agree with us, the hard Brexit option, so there's nothing to negotiate, so what's the point of discussing mechanisms for 2 years when you're saying nothing we can offer will lead to a change in their position? Negotiation is about compromise and you're saying they are not going to offer anything.foxinsoxuk said:
The problem is that the EU is trying to negotiate the mechanisms of a (hard) Brexit, while our own politicians want to retain some privileges of membership that are not on offer, ie soft Brexit.CarlottaVance said:
As opposed to 'Leavers who said the EU would not negotiate in good faith'?AlastairMeeks said:
Can I therefore include you as the inaugural member of "Leavers who are prepared to admit that exit negotiations are proving much harder than we expected"?kle4 said:It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing.
Exhibit 1 Brexit cannot be a success
It is not a matter of good faith, it is a fundamental mismatch of goals. The EU is trying to negotiate process and our government has not decided what it wants. Soft Brexit has never been on the table.
We want to get things from the negotiations. Since we keep being told we cannot get anything, and we are selfish, rude idiots for daring to suggest anything, much better all around if the farce is called to a close and everyone just runs out the clock.
Otherwise he picture you paint is the going 'this is how you're leaving and that's that', us going 'how about this?', then them going 'this is how you're leaving and that's that'. And it's all 'negotiation in good faith'. You've just said they're goal, in effect, includes not negotiating any point of substance. And yer still were the only ones being obstructive.0 -
Poshos aghastwilliamglenn said:
Wait until Boris spells it out about the BMWs and prosecco...CarlottaVance said:And there's more......
Britain is accused of having 'no idea how Brussels works' as EU sources warn 'Brexit will fail' in yet another bitter attack on Theresa May's plans
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4464888/Britain-no-idea-Brussels-works-say-EU-sources.html#ixzz4fu2OLK1v
Beer drinkers notice no difference0 -
What does ‘no deal’ mean. Customs posts at Dover, tariffs on everything?kle4 said:
Yes yes, we all know the apocalypse is coming and all that. Surely the more critical point at this stage, if one believes that, is how much things can be mitigated. There's bad, and then there's bad.foxinsoxuk said:
A number of our Iberian nurses have decided the same. I suspect more will follow. Brexit is a lose-lose arrangement.Bromptonaut said:
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sicst not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.
If a fire takes hold in the kitchen it might well be impossible to make a success of the House, as it were, but that doesn't mean sitting back and letting the entire house burn down has the same effect as putting the fire out.
If every single thing we ask for is indeed unreasonable, as the eu claims, and in the absence of a LD majority government on June 9th, then whether we wanted no Brexit or soft Brexit or any other variation is pointless now, and preparations for no deal should begin immediately.
Actually, if it put a bar on recruiting non-British footballers .......0 -
It's good to see the levels of delusion we've suffered for months are beginning to be challenged by levels of butthurtness among our Brexiteer Community. As many of us have warned all along this is going to be bloody painful. And May is exactly the wrong person to be trying to secure benefit for us. Humility is what is needed, not swagger and arrogance.kle4 said:
Yes yes, we all know the apocalypse is coming and all that. Surely the more critical point at this stage, if one believes that, is how much things can be mitigated. There's bad, and then there's bad.foxinsoxuk said:
A number of our Iberian nurses have decided the same. I suspect more will follow. Brexit is a lose-lose arrangement.Bromptonaut said:
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Snipfoxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.
If a fire takes hold in the kitchen it might well be impossible to make a success of the House, as it were, but that doesn't mean sitting back and letting the entire house burn down has the same effect as putting the fire out.
If every single thing we ask for is indeed unreasonable, as the eu claims, and in the absence of a LD majority government on June 9th, then whether we wanted no Brexit or soft Brexit or any other variation is pointless now, and preparations for no deal should begin immediately.0 -
Dr Fox,
Sorry to hear about the nurses - I assume they are French citizens, otherwise Brexiit is irrelevant.
Yup, the EU is looking after its own interests, so there's no advantage in playing nice. There'll be no "As you're a mate, I'll let you off the other £5."
Mrs May is very lucky to be opposing Jezza, and she's very lucky to be opposing Juncker in a head-to-head. She's no much cop as a negotiator or politician, but what did Napoleon say about his generals?0 -
I WOULD have voted Libs in the locals - but for their position on Brexit. I might have voted for them at the election but for same reason don't think I can.CarlottaVance said:So those two general elections cannot be seen, as Anthony Wells of YouGov is trying to argue, as relevant precedents for GE2017.
Wells also argues, perfectly reasonably in my view:
However, don’t just assume that the projected overall shares of the vote at this week’s votes are going to be repeated in next month’s election: people vote differently for different reasons at different sorts of election.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/why-local-elections-are-not-useful-indicators-nati/
Voters in locals aren't voting about Brexit. Voters in the GE aren't voting about potholes & bin collections.0 -
Consider yourself corrected. There will be an anti-EU spasm. But it is never good for a politician to be labelled delusional, no matter how unpopular the person doing the labelling.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I do have great respect for your views but on Brexit you do seem to want to reduce it to them and us.AlastairMeeks said:
I've now given the question the three seconds thought it merits.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is a simple question and I do not understand why you cannot give an answerAlastairMeeks said:
I haven't really given the question any thought either way. It is pointless to do so.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Still no answer. I assume that you agree that this has been good for TMAlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
The cultist Leavers will rally behind Theresa May and foam wildly about drunken Eurocrats leaking (forgetting how excited they were when Michael Gove planted a story on the Sun's front page about the Queen's views on Brexit).
Remainers will have all their own default prejudices confirmed about the idiocy of the UK's negotiating stance.
The general public will see foreigners being rude in foreign about the British government's approach and will have a spasm of insular loyalty.
It will all be forgotten about by Friday.
You can correct me if I have misinterpreted your comments but you do seem to agree that this has enhanced TM in the eyes of the ordinary voter in the street0 -
That incident was dreadful and if one outcome of this election is the end of UKIP that would be a reason to celebrateRoger said:Hearty Brexit celebrations in Hartlipool
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3443568/ukip-fight-hartlepool-paul-nuttall-campaign/0 -
Given most of the seats up are county council elections and London and cities like Liverpool are not up for election I would expect the LDs to do a bit better than they will at the general election and Labour a bit worse while as some voters might vote LD locally but Tory nationally I would also expect the Tory voteshare to be below what they will get in June even if they cone top as expected. That was the case in 1983 and 19870
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foxinsoxuk
'I don't think the Europeans care whether May has a bigger majority or not. '
So whether May has a large majority or is subject to a handful of MP's or the Remain majority in the House of Lords blocking her negotiations at random is of no significance to the EU, you really believe that ?0 -
In general, I think the EU have played their hand skilfully so far, but the leaked report of the meeting was a mistake. Interesting insight into the thinking at No 10, though, once you strip away the spin. Mrs May was presumably serious in suggesting the opt out followed by selective opt-in approach that they used previously for the EU justice and home affairs treaty. This shows a complete misunderstanding of the situation Britain is in relative to the EU following Brexit. ie that Brexit really is Brexit. The leak also confirms a very unfocused approach to Brexit.Nigelb said:
What do you think the purpose of the leak, Alastair ?AlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
Time for me to head to the shop to get a new irony meter. My old one just broke.AlastairMeeks said:
You're drinking deep from the Kool Aid this morning.CarlottaVance said:
As opposed to 'Leavers who said the EU would not negotiate in good faith'?AlastairMeeks said:
Can I therefore include you as the inaugural member of "Leavers who are prepared to admit that exit negotiations are proving much harder than we expected"?kle4 said:It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing.
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The local/national differential will favour the Tories in June, but the higher turnout won't.HYUFD said:Given most of the seats up are county council elections and London and cities like Liverpool are not up for election I would expect the LDs to do a bit better than they will at the general election and Labour a bit worse while as some voters might vote LD locally but Tory nationally I would also expect the Tory voteshare to be below what they will get in June even if they cone top as expected. That was the case in 1983 and 1987
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That isn't a real world answer.Scott_P said:
Yeswalterw said:So whether May has a large majority or is subject to a handful of MP's or the Remain majority in the House of Lords blocking her negotiations at random is of no significance to the EU, you really believe that ?
That is her problem, not theirs.0 -
Up to a point, but a football team spirit has developed in most of the main EU leaders (certainly Merkel and Macron) so they've come to identify with the EU side in the negotiations more than you might expect.david_herdson said:
There's a fallacy in that argument, which is the concept of an 'EU politician'. While some - Tusk, Juncker, Barnier - are genuine EU politicians, most of those who are the key players (Merkel, Macron presumably and the other 25 heads of government/state) are national politicians with their own domestic audiences and pressures. Their interests and needs from the Brexit process are rather different from those whose sole goal is creating and strengthening the EU.IanB2 said:Any sensible EU politician isn't going to want May to come out of the GE with her and the country's bad decision and positioning vindicated in any way; that is just natural and to be expected. The question is how clever they can be in seeking to exercise any influence over things here, given that it is usually extremely difficult for any outside party to impact on a domestic election.
There are a lot of shades of opnion in Britain, of course, from some hard Brexit enthusiasts ("only with hard Brexit will we be truly free") to some hard Remainers (who would like a negotiating outcome to be so bad that it makes us all think again). Most people are eyeing the process uneasily with feelings somewhere in between.0 -
Delusion on cue! No, the EU does NOT need us as much as we need them. It would like to keep us in the fold as far as possible, but it knows that Britain will still buy Euro stuff, perhaps slightly less, whether we have a deal or not. It looks on us sadly, it doesn't want to punish us but will not offer us cake and let us eat it - the kind of preferential and sectorally segmented deals May is after.SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
And over the following 20 years, we will lose out on investment. Everyone won't up sticks at once but at each investment round a reason will be found why Bratislava, Frankfurt, Dublin or Amsterdam is a better candidate for channelling the cash.
A once great nation will slide further into decline.
0 -
Everyone sensible knew there'd be pain and admitted it from the beginning, only fools thought there would be no pain.The assessment was whether a good deal for the uk would in the longer term make up for that pain. It's in no ones interest for it not to be, but short term thinking, fear of domestic and organisational consequences, is currently meaning that is tough.Monksfield said:
It's good to see the levels of delusion we've suffered for months are beginning to be challenged by levels of butthurtness among our Brexiteer Community. As many of us have warned all along this is going to be bloody painful. And May is exactly the wrong person to be trying to secure benefit for us. Humility is what is needed, not swagger and arrogance.kle4 said:
Yes yes, we all know the apocalypse is coming and all that. Surely the more critical point at this stage, if one believes that, is how much things can be mitigated. There's bad, and then there's bad.foxinsoxuk said:
A number of our Iberian nurses have decided the same. I suspect more will follow. Brexit is a lose-lose arrangement.Bromptonaut said:
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Snipfoxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.
If a fire takes hold in the kitchen it might well be impossible to make a success.0 -
This article could have been written about yesterday's thread on PB (continued this morning). It imagines a speech the PM will eventually give...
The prime minister is seated behind her desk in Downing Street. A Union Jack is visible in the corner of the room. Mrs May tells the British people that, despite the unstinting efforts of her government, the UK and the EU have been unable to reach an agreement. She has to warn her fellow countrymen that difficult times lie ahead. There will be severe disruption to trade and travel for an extended period of time. There is likely to be a serious recession. Britain had made a democratic decision to leave the EU. But the EU has proved unwilling to accept that decision and negotiate a fair deal. Instead, it is determined to punish the UK.
Now comes the Churchillian riff. Lowering the timbre of her voice and staring straight into the camera, Mrs May says that some European politicians seem to believe that they can humiliate Britain and bend the country to their will. Clearly, they have no knowledge of the history or nature of the British people. A country that has defeated Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon and the Spanish Armada has no reason to fear the bureaucrats of Brussels, or the governments of Malta and Slovakia. A quick reference to Shakespeare and the “sceptred isle” and an appeal for national unity, and the speech would be over.
https://www.ft.com/content/8f169d1e-2bfd-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c0 -
I doubt it makes much difference indeed a very high turnout means Leave voters are coming outIanB2 said:
The local/national differential will favour the Tories in June, but the higher turnout won't.HYUFD said:Given most of the seats up are county council elections and London and cities like Liverpool are not up for election I would expect the LDs to do a bit better than they will at the general election and Labour a bit worse while as some voters might vote LD locally but Tory nationally I would also expect the Tory voteshare to be below what they will get in June even if they cone top as expected. That was the case in 1983 and 1987
0 -
I dont know exactly what it means, but since we're told the eu won't bend on anything making negotiation pointless, we can spend 2 years identifying what it means and preparing as best we can. Rather than waste time asking for what we consider a mutually beneficial deal, when they've already said no, it's hard Brexit.OldKingCole said:
What does ‘no deal’ mean. Customs posts at Dover, tariffs on everything?kle4 said:
Yes yes, we all know the apocalypse is coming and all that. Surely the more critical point at this stage, if one believes that, is how much things can be mitigated. There's bad, and then there's bad.foxinsoxuk said:
A number of our Iberian nurses have decided the same. I suspect more will follow. Brexit is a lose-lose arrangement.Bromptonaut said:
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven'ty're now near 100%.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.
If a fire takes hold in the kitchen it might well be impossible to make a success of the House, as it were, but that doesn't mean sitting back and letting the entire house burn down has the same effect as putting the fire out.
If every single thing we ask for is indeed unreasonable, as the eu claims, and in the absence of a LD majority government on June 9th, then whether we wanted no Brexit or soft Brexit or any other variation is pointless now, and preparations for no deal should begin immediately.
Actually, if it put a bar on recruiting non-British footballers .......0 -
Almost as true as the 350 million a week lieScott_P said:This article could have been written about yesterday's thread on PB (continued this morning). It imagines a speech the PM will eventually give...
The prime minister is seated behind her desk in Downing Street. A Union Jack is visible in the corner of the room. Mrs May tells the British people that, despite the unstinting efforts of her government, the UK and the EU have been unable to reach an agreement. She has to warn her fellow countrymen that difficult times lie ahead. There will be severe disruption to trade and travel for an extended period of time. There is likely to be a serious recession. Britain had made a democratic decision to leave the EU. But the EU has proved unwilling to accept that decision and negotiate a fair deal. Instead, it is determined to punish the UK.
Now comes the Churchillian riff. Lowering the timbre of her voice and staring straight into the camera, Mrs May says that some European politicians seem to believe that they can humiliate Britain and bend the country to their will. Clearly, they have no knowledge of the history or nature of the British people. A country that has defeated Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon and the Spanish Armada has no reason to fear the bureaucrats of Brussels, or the governments of Malta and Slovakia. A quick reference to Shakespeare and the “sceptred isle” and an appeal for national unity, and the speech would be over.
https://www.ft.com/content/8f169d1e-2bfd-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c0 -
Labour already leads with Remain voters but May has a huge lead with Leave voters so that only follows if significant numbers of Leave voters start to turnJonathan said:
If there is a pattern in UK politics it's the higher you rise,the harder you fall. May should enjoy her day in the sun. What follows could well be brutal.Roger said:I'd love to vote for someone who might defeat Mrs May. Her narcississism is statrting to grate as much as William Hague's accent used to. 'Could I live with this voice for the next five years' has now been replaced by 'does Mrs May realise she part of a political party not an absolute monarch'.
She's unbelievably lucky to be facing Jeremy.0 -
It could well be true.TMay was always going to blame any lack of success on the eu's intransigence. Since as you keep pointing out they won't do a deal no matter what then, in effect, then she will actually have more of a case.Scott_P said:This article could have been written about yesterday's thread on PB (continued this morning). It imagines a speech the PM will eventually give...
The prime minister is seated behind her desk in Downing Street. A Union Jack is visible in the corner of the room. Mrs May tells the British people that, despite the unstinting efforts of her government, the UK and the EU have been unable to reach an agreement. She has to warn her fellow countrymen that difficult times lie ahead. There will be severe disruption to trade and travel for an extended period of time. There is likely to be a serious recession. Britain had made a democratic decision to leave the EU. But the EU has proved unwilling to accept that decision and negotiate a fair deal. Instead, it is determined to punish the UK.
Now comes the Churchillian riff. Lowering the timbre of her voice and staring straight into the camera, Mrs May says that some European politicians seem to believe that they can humiliate Britain and bend the country to their will. Clearly, they have no knowledge of the history or nature of the British people. A country that has defeated Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon and the Spanish Armada has no reason to fear the bureaucrats of Brussels, or the governments of Malta and Slovakia. A quick reference to Shakespeare and the “sceptred isle” and an appeal for national unity, and the speech would be over.
https://www.ft.com/content/8f169d1e-2bfd-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c0 -
The presenter on Radio 5 has just said the fact that the EU seem to be persuing their own interests will harden many in Britain's resolve that they've made the right decision even those who were previous Remainers.
Depressing.0 -
Alastair Meeks
'Consider yourself corrected. There will be an anti-EU spasm. But it is never good for a politician to be labelled delusional, no matter how unpopular the person doing the labelling.'
The reason for this spat is that Junckers Brexit bill is circa £50 billion and Theresa said it would be nil (see HOL on this subject). Junckers did not like this response so his backroom team decided to leak the details of a confidential meeting in an effort to embarass TM.
This ploy rebounded on him and it has enhanced TM in the eyes of the public.
If there is a lesson in all this it is that TM needs to deal direct with Tusk of the Council and ignore Junckers0 -
Any of our doughty canvassers seen anything like this:
https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/858956560567078913
Or is this going to be one of the urban myths of GE2017?0 -
Hear, hear.RobD said:
To be frank, they should mind their own business!IanB2 said:Any sensible EU politician isn't going to want May to come out of the GE with her and the country's bad decision and positioning vindicated in any way; that is just natural and to be expected. The question is how clever they can be in seeking to exercise any influence over things here, given that it is usually extremely difficult for any outside party to impact on a domestic election.
0 -
Money for candidates from crowdfund:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/more-united-progressive-centrist-election-candidates_uk_5907940ce4b0bb2d08705a2a?393i
Good to see, purely from point of view of my own betting, cash for Munt in Wells.0 -
What makes you think most people are in between? Anyone who raises in the public sphere the possibility of less than super hard Brexit freedom / disaster is mocked by those who say we're about to eat sh*t and have to take it, and those who vilify it as giving in to the eu.NickPalmer said:
Up to a point, but a football team spirit has developed in most of the main EU leaders (certainly Merkel and Macron) so they've come to identify with the EU side in the negotiations more than you might expect.david_herdson said:
There's a fallacy in that argument, which is the concept of an 'EU politician'. While some - Tusk, Juncker, Barnier - are genuine EU politicians, most of those who are the key players (Merkel, Macron presumably and the other 25 heads of government/state) are national politicians with their own domestic audiences and pressures. Their interests and needs from the Brexit process are rather different from those whose sole goal is creating and strengthening the EU.IanB2 said:Any sensible EU politician isn't going to want May to come out of the GE with her and the country's bad decision and positioning vindicated in any way; that is just natural and to be expected. The question is how clever they can be in seeking to exercise any influence over things here, given that it is usually extremely difficult for any outside party to impact on a domestic election.
There are a lot of shades of opnion in Britain, of course, from some hard Brexit enthusiasts ("only with hard Brexit will we be truly free") to some hard Remainers (who would like a negotiating outcome to be so bad that it makes us all think again). Most people are eyeing the process uneasily with feelings somewhere in between.
No one in authority here or in the eu appears prepared to compromise. You've made the point that deal making is what the eu is all about, so what's your take when we are repeatedly told here that the uk cannot get anything because the eu have decided their approach?0 -
Some of us do. And one of the cases has pretty much no strength. I can be pretty sure there is absolutely no chance of proving 'guilty mind', just none. Absolutely none.Sean_F said:
We have no idea how strong the case is against any of them.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..
0 -
Jack Dromey and progressive don't belong in the same paragraph imorottenborough said:Money for candidates from crowdfund:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/more-united-progressive-centrist-election-candidates_uk_5907940ce4b0bb2d08705a2a?393i
Good to see, purely from point of view of my own betting, cash for Munt in Wells.0 -
Vastly reduced. She is now a spent force and heading for the ignominy which she so richly deserves. She is also quite personally unpleasant being the manifestion in the flesh of a peculiarly repellent stripe of ignorant bourgeois nationalism and social conservatism.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
Actually the biggest difference between a low turnout and a high turnout is the age mix.HYUFD said:
I doubt it makes much difference indeed a very high turnout means Leave voters are coming outIanB2 said:
The local/national differential will favour the Tories in June, but the higher turnout won't.HYUFD said:Given most of the seats up are county council elections and London and cities like Liverpool are not up for election I would expect the LDs to do a bit better than they will at the general election and Labour a bit worse while as some voters might vote LD locally but Tory nationally I would also expect the Tory voteshare to be below what they will get in June even if they cone top as expected. That was the case in 1983 and 1987
Young people don't tend to vote in local elections.0 -
This is the third or fourth photo of a similar homemade sign I've seen on twitter. Are they real is the question.CarlottaVance said:Any of our doughty canvassers seen anything like this:
https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/858956560567078913
Or is this going to be one of the urban myths of GE2017?0 -
I think that is inevitableRoger said:The presenter on Radio 5 has just said the fact that the EU seem to be persuing their own interests will harden many in Britain's resolve that they've made the right decision even those who were previous Remainers.
Depressing.0 -
No idea how the selection process is handled.IanB2 said:
Jack Dromey and progressive don't belong in the same paragraph imorottenborough said:Money for candidates from crowdfund:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/more-united-progressive-centrist-election-candidates_uk_5907940ce4b0bb2d08705a2a?393i
Good to see, purely from point of view of my own betting, cash for Munt in Wells.0 -
That only makes sense if they genuinely don't care if there's a deal or not - or if they think that HMG will have to take whatever deal they offer.Scott_P said:
Yeswalterw said:So whether May has a large majority or is subject to a handful of MP's or the Remain majority in the House of Lords blocking her negotiations at random is of no significance to the EU, you really believe that ?
That is her problem, not theirs.
And they call May deluded.0 -
Good morning all. Just popping in on my way to Germany for the rest of the week.
Anyway, I know I'm not neutral, but I am sure that Labour has had by far the better campaign so far. Plenty of policy ideas, many of which ought to resonate with plenty of voters. Meanwhile the Tories just repeating their "Strong and Stable" jingle, and are now being ridiculed as a result.
Of course, that doesn't mean that anyone is listening to Labour, or that 1001 great policies will make up for the fact that people see Jezza and just think "No fecking way".
Ah well.0 -
It's an e-ballot of everyone who has made a donation.rottenborough said:
No idea how the selection process is handled.IanB2 said:
Jack Dromey and progressive don't belong in the same paragraph imorottenborough said:Money for candidates from crowdfund:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/more-united-progressive-centrist-election-candidates_uk_5907940ce4b0bb2d08705a2a?393i
Good to see, purely from point of view of my own betting, cash for Munt in Wells.0 -
Sad responseDura_Ace said:
Vastly reduced. She is now a spent force and heading for the ignominy which she so richly deserves. She is also quite personally unpleasant being the manifestion in the flesh of a peculiarly repellent stripe of ignorant bourgeois nationalism and social conservatism.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
Mr. kle4, we're in the pre-election phase in the UK, France and Germany. Swaggering and so forth is expected now.
If it persists and a willingness to compromise doesn't appear after the elections are done, that will be a different situation.0 -
Kinnock and Mandelson were widely believed to have had the better campaign in 1987. Much good it did them.SandyRentool said:Good morning all. Just popping in on my way to Germany for the rest of the week.
Anyway, I know I'm not neutral, but I am sure that Labour has had by far the better campaign so far. Plenty of policy ideas, many of which ought to resonate with plenty of voters. Meanwhile the Tories just repeating their "Strong and Stable" jingle, and are now being ridiculed as a result.
Of course, that doesn't mean that anyone is listening to Labour, or that 1001 great policies will make up for the fact that people see Jezza and just think "No fecking way".
Ah well.0 -
Sadly the ridicule amongst those of us paying attention probably just increases the chances of those who are not actually noticing.SandyRentool said:Good morning all. Just popping in on my way to Germany for the rest of the week.
Anyway, I know I'm not neutral, but I am sure that Labour has had by far the better campaign so far. Plenty of policy ideas, many of which ought to resonate with plenty of voters. Meanwhile the Tories just repeating their "Strong and Stable" jingle, and are now being ridiculed as a result.
Of course, that doesn't mean that anyone is listening to Labour, or that 1001 great policies will make up for the fact that people see Jezza and just think "No fecking way".
Ah well.0 -
Fake Diet News ....SimonStClare said:Morning all.
Ah, Friday’s ‘big psephological debate’ a Knickerbocker glory of cherry picking while those that should know better, attempt to compare apples with pairs. Good luck with that…0 -
Au contraire mon brave, that nice Mrs May seems to have some backbone and may well end up telling them to swivel. A MUCH better outcome than us staying for a while longer inside a undemocratic bureaucracy that is unwaveringly headed towards becoming a superstate we can't be part of. I think we're headed for No Deal at all. Diamond Brexit. It's not armageddon.Dura_Ace said:
Vastly reduced. She is now a spent force and heading for the ignominy which she so richly deserves. She is also quite personally unpleasant being the manifestion in the flesh of a peculiarly repellent stripe of ignorant bourgeois nationalism and social conservatism.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
0 -
I dont know why that would be surprising. No one likes being told they made the wrong choice, the eu is the same, that's why it says nice words then doubles down on past behaviour. Heck, even here we saw remainers furious at the a50 case for 'delaying' things and the like, even as sone leavers thought it led to necessary debate and parliamentary approval.Roger said:The presenter on Radio 5 has just said the fact that the EU seem to be persuing their own interests will harden many in Britain's resolve that they've made the right decision even those who were previous Remainers.
Depressing.
The issue is if people believe the eu is being punitive. That was always going to be claimed. By saying '60 billion, a list of demands and no, you are offending us by asking for x' the eu is helping make that case. The last week is what has convinced me neither side wants a deal, they want no deal but which they can blame on the other. The leaks make no sense otherwise.0 -
-
What precise form of compromise are you looking for?Morris_Dancer said:If it persists and a willingness to compromise doesn't appear after the elections are done, that will be a different situation.
0 -
They vote at the same percentage rate roughly as general elections in locals it is non voters who voted for Brexit May would want to come out for herIanB2 said:
Actually the biggest difference between a low turnout and a high turnout is the age mix.HYUFD said:
I doubt it makes much difference indeed a very high turnout means Leave voters are coming outIanB2 said:
The local/national differential will favour the Tories in June, but the higher turnout won't.HYUFD said:Given most of the seats up are county council elections and London and cities like Liverpool are not up for election I would expect the LDs to do a bit better than they will at the general election and Labour a bit worse while as some voters might vote LD locally but Tory nationally I would also expect the Tory voteshare to be below what they will get in June even if they cone top as expected. That was the case in 1983 and 1987
Young people don't tend to vote in local elections.0 -
We're told on here the stance would be the same regardless. I believe them now, therefore the eu wants no deal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, we're in the pre-election phase in the UK, France and Germany. Swaggering and so forth is expected now.
If it persists and a willingness to compromise doesn't appear after the elections are done, that will be a different situation.0 -
When do you expect this to show up in the polls?Dura_Ace said:
Vastly reduced. She is now a spent force and heading for the ignominy which she so richly deserves. She is also quite personally unpleasant being the manifestion in the flesh of a peculiarly repellent stripe of ignorant bourgeois nationalism and social conservatism.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
Round here I’ve seen ONE Labour sign..... generic Vote Labour ......and seen or heard of no canvassers or similar. There was a brief discussion on the community Facebook page eaerly last week which ended up with a ‘not-voting’, a couple of Labour and a couple of Greens.rottenborough said:
This is the third or fourth photo of a similar homemade sign I've seen on twitter. Are they real is the question.CarlottaVance said:Any of our doughty canvassers seen anything like this:
https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/858956560567078913
Or is this going to be one of the urban myths of GE2017?
Otherwise, to date, nothing’s happening.0 -
Roger said:
The presenter on Radio 5 has just said the fact that the EU seem to be persuing their own interests will harden many in Britain's resolve that they've made the right decision even those who were previous Remainers.
Depressing.
Possibly. But also very predictable. Which makes one wonder whether the EU has already given up before it started....0 -
Mr. Glenn, as I've said (although not for a little while) excepting the customs union, which we must leave, I'm open to a pretty wide spectrum of deals. I wouldn't mind if freedom of movement were replaced by freedom to work (ie guaranteed job offer).
The only new thing I've heard which is unacceptable is the possibility of having EU citizens here governed by EU rather than UK law.
Mr. W, I wrote a blog last week about cheating diets in medieval England [and people say my blog is niche!]:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/holy-days-and-lots-of-fish.html0 -
They've had the better of it, in parts. Keep it up and they might no suffer too badly, if lucky.SandyRentool said:Good morning all. Just popping in on my way to Germany for the rest of the week.
Anyway, I know I'm not neutral, but I am sure that Labour has had by far the better campaign so far. Plenty of policy ideas, many of which ought to resonate with plenty of voters. Meanwhile the Tories just repeating their "Strong and Stable" jingle, and are now being ridiculed as a result.
Of course, that doesn't mean that anyone is listening to Labour, or that 1001 great policies will make up for the fact that people see Jezza and just think "No fecking way".
Ah well.0 -
What you're coming to appreciate is that the EU's 'no deal is better than a bad deal' bluff is 100 times stronger than the UK's.kle4 said:
We're told on here the stance would be the same regardless. I believe them now, therefore the eu wants no deal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, we're in the pre-election phase in the UK, France and Germany. Swaggering and so forth is expected now.
If it persists and a willingness to compromise doesn't appear after the elections are done, that will be a different situation.0 -
If even the BBC is admitting it...!Roger said:The presenter on Radio 5 has just said the fact that the EU seem to be persuing their own interests will harden many in Britain's resolve that they've made the right decision even those who were previous Remainers.
Depressing.
Unforced error from the EU.0 -
Are you coming to appreciate that that is still not a good thing for them or us? And do nothing to be happy about. It means they are prioritising short term gain. Surely you would have thought the eu would take a nobler and longer term approach, as we should?williamglenn said:
What you're coming to appreciate is that the EU's 'no deal is better than a bad deal' bluff is 100 times stronger than the UK's.kle4 said:
We're told on here the stance would be the same regardless. I believe them now, therefore the eu wants no deal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, we're in the pre-election phase in the UK, France and Germany. Swaggering and so forth is expected now.
If it persists and a willingness to compromise doesn't appear after the elections are done, that will be a different situation.0 -
The comments on this thread simply serve to show the scale of the Brexit problem.
Sharp divide between those who won't have any criticism of the UK and believe the EU are deliberately setting out to be the enemy and those who think the UK is ill-prepared and unrealistic about what can be achieved.
We will find out who is right eventually. But in the meantime, the tone of the side who are anti-EU is much more aggressive. Why do you need to be so rude to people who don't agree with you, guys? Is it so that you don't have to think too hard about how to defend your position?0 -
Do you expect/accept a transition agreement which would be governed by the current arrangements during which time the long term future agreement will be negotiated or do you think it's 'unreasonable' of the EU not to aim to have everything done and dusted by 2019?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, as I've said (although not for a little while) excepting the customs union, which we must leave, I'm open to a pretty wide spectrum of deals. I wouldn't mind if freedom of movement were replaced by freedom to work (ie guaranteed job offer).
The only new thing I've heard which is unacceptable is the possibility of having EU citizens here governed by EU rather than UK law.0 -
But only one side leaked.......kle4 said:
The last week is what has convinced me neither side wants a deal, they want no deal but which they can blame on the other. The leaks make no sense otherwise.Roger said:The presenter on Radio 5 has just said the fact that the EU seem to be persuing their own interests will harden many in Britain's resolve that they've made the right decision even those who were previous Remainers.
Depressing.0 -
Still no leaflets for the locals from 2 of the parties standing for me. So with labour not deserving my vote while led by Corbyn and McDonnell, it looks like the lds, sigh. Three separate leaflet drops, at least they're trying.0
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A huge "Please Vote Independent" sign has popped up on my way in to town. However, it doesn't actually name the Independent candidate.OldKingCole said:
Round here I’ve seen ONE Labour sign..... generic Vote Labour ......and seen or heard of no canvassers or similar. There was a brief discussion on the community Facebook page eaerly last week which ended up with a ‘not-voting’, a couple of Labour and a couple of Greens.rottenborough said:
This is the third or fourth photo of a similar homemade sign I've seen on twitter. Are they real is the question.CarlottaVance said:Any of our doughty canvassers seen anything like this:
https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/858956560567078913
Or is this going to be one of the urban myths of GE2017?
Otherwise, to date, nothing’s happening.0 -
It is a good point but the tone from both sides needs dialing down - both are as bad as each otherMrsB said:The comments on this thread simply serve to show the scale of the Brexit problem.
Sharp divide between those who won't have any criticism of the UK and believe the EU are deliberately setting out to be the enemy and those who think the UK is ill-prepared and unrealistic about what can be achieved.
We will find out who is right eventually. But in the meantime, the tone of the side who are anti-EU is much more aggressive. Why do you need to be so rude to people who don't agree with you, guys? Is it so that you don't have to think too hard about how to defend your position?0 -
Where is your evidence that Labour and the Lib Dems committed idential offences? Until we see the scale of the charges we won't know what offences are involved.ydoethur said:
I can see all sorts of problems setting up a trial. How do you find a neutral jury? Who would the judge be? What criteria need to be used to find them guilty? Is it a simple case of the letter of the law, or if the returns were filed in the wrong place by mistake and made no actual difference do you let them off with a slap on the wrist? What sentence would be passed given Labour and the Liberal Democrats were only fined for identical offences?RobD said:
That's true, although the bar is definitely higher.Sean_F said:
We have no idea how strong the case is against any of them.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..
It seems likely that in most cases the CPS will think of the difficulties and decide not to bother. It may depend on whether there is something really bad in among it that they feel is deliberate, malicious and unambiguously criminal.0 -
Mr. Glenn, depends on the nature of the agreement.
Given we're already excluded from certain meetings, being half-out yet paying full fees would not go down well. I have no problem with a transition agreement in itself, though.
Mrs B, motes and beams: "Why do you need to be so rude to people who don't agree with you, guys? Is it so that you don't have to think too hard about how to defend your position?"
In one sentence you condemn those of an opinion that differs from your own for being rude to people whose opinion differs, in the next you're rude about them...0 -
I don't think we're quite told that. We're told that the EU has decided on its negotiating platform, and have rubbished the British one as unrealistic. Meanwhile May has asked for the moon and said we're ready to leave without a deal if we don't get it. All of this on both sides is quite normal in a tough negotiation. We don't have a basis to judge how it will all turn out, but I predict a deal in the end, after many crises, midnight talks, breakdowns, and all the rest of the Hollywood stuff that accompanies such things. But we probably need to get UK elections out of the way first.kle4 said:
No one in authority here or in the eu appears prepared to compromise. You've made the point that deal making is what the eu is all about, so what's your take when we are repeatedly told here that the uk cannot get anything because the eu have decided their approach?
I'm reminded of a Swedish national trade union-employer negotiation many years ago, which normally goes on all night until a deal is reached at 6am. On this occasion, it was revealed years later that a deal was actually reached early the previous evening. Both sides agreed that it wouldn't look good to settle too easily, so they played cards all night and emerged at 6 to announce the "bitterly fought" agreement. I don't think the current procewss is as cynical as that, but there's undoubtedly some playing to the gallery.0 -
The EU is taking a long term approach. They understand that Brexit is technically difficult and have drawn up a sequenced plan that takes all of this into account and would allow us to move into new arrangements 5 years from now.kle4 said:
Are you coming to appreciate that that is still not a good thing for them or us? And do nothing to be happy about. It means they are prioritising short term gain. Surely you would have thought the eu would take a nobler and longer term approach, as we should?williamglenn said:
What you're coming to appreciate is that the EU's 'no deal is better than a bad deal' bluff is 100 times stronger than the UK's.kle4 said:
We're told on here the stance would be the same regardless. I believe them now, therefore the eu wants no deal.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, we're in the pre-election phase in the UK, France and Germany. Swaggering and so forth is expected now.
If it persists and a willingness to compromise doesn't appear after the elections are done, that will be a different situation.
If anything, perhaps the purpose of the leak was to try to bring the UK back down to earth and stop pretending that by bluffing, we can somehow force them to turn complex issues into simple ones.0 -
Further update from BF on their election date markets:
Due to the risk of prematurely settling this market, we are very sorry though our Exchange Team have decided to wait a bit longer.
As there is still a chance, however remote, that the election doesn't take place on June 8th we shall not be settling this market as of yet.0 -
Morning all. Lovelyy weekend with my partner hiding from politics for a bit! Back to the pit face to look for bargain odds. I'd hoped the slightly better Labour showing in the polls might have translated to opportunity but don't really see it yet. Am seeing increased polarisation though between those convinced Corbyn is surging against the odds and those convinced labour are in for a shellacking.
I'm of the second mind myself still, the sort of people that champion corbynism are the most likely to stay home imo. Indeed I think there will be a number of talkers down of the Tories who are secret May boosters in the booth.0 -
No. The EU are being completely rational. Either the BBC are employing a supid presenter or she's right and the British public really do believe that their arrogance is justified.ThreeQuidder said:
If even the BBC is admitting it...!Roger said:The presenter on Radio 5 has just said the fact that the EU seem to be persuing their own interests will harden many in Britain's resolve that they've made the right decision even those who were previous Remainers.
Depressing.
Unforced error from the EU.0
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