politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for a big psephological debate on Friday on how much you can read in to the locals
The timing of the 2017 General Election has created an almost unique situation. This is the first time in the modern era when a general election has been called before the May local elections and the campaign period covered those elections.
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I am indeed excited. Less excited about the lack of coverage or overnight counts.0
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second like Labour0
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So those two general elections cannot be seen, as Anthony Wells of YouGov is trying to argue, as relevant precedents for GE2017.
Wells also argues, perfectly reasonably in my view:
However, don’t just assume that the projected overall shares of the vote at this week’s votes are going to be repeated in next month’s election: people vote differently for different reasons at different sorts of election.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/why-local-elections-are-not-useful-indicators-nati/
Voters in locals aren't voting about Brexit. Voters in the GE aren't voting about potholes & bin collections.0 -
The answer is that we'll know on June 9th. But we've never had a situation like this before where the local took place AFTER the general election had been called. In 1983 and 1987 Mrs. Thatcher still had a year to go.CarlottaVance said:So those two general elections cannot be seen, as Anthony Wells of YouGov is trying to argue, as relevant precedents for GE2017.
Wells also argues, perfectly reasonably in my view:
However, don’t just assume that the projected overall shares of the vote at this week’s votes are going to be repeated in next month’s election: people vote differently for different reasons at different sorts of election.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/why-local-elections-are-not-useful-indicators-nati/
Voters in locals aren't voting about Brexit. Voters in the GE aren't voting about potholes & bin collections.0 -
For starters, there wont be the same effort to GOTV> and the %ages ought to be well down on GE %agesMikeSmithson said:
The answer is that we'll know on June 9th. But we've never had a situation like this before where the local took place AFTER the general election had been called. In 1983 and 1987 Mrs. Thatcher still had a year to go.CarlottaVance said:So those two general elections cannot be seen, as Anthony Wells of YouGov is trying to argue, as relevant precedents for GE2017.
Wells also argues, perfectly reasonably in my view:
However, don’t just assume that the projected overall shares of the vote at this week’s votes are going to be repeated in next month’s election: people vote differently for different reasons at different sorts of election.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/why-local-elections-are-not-useful-indicators-nati/
Voters in locals aren't voting about Brexit. Voters in the GE aren't voting about potholes & bin collections.0 -
Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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How many muppets will think they are voting in the General this Thursday? Or, perhaps, not voting.....0
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What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....0 -
That is the standard leaver statement but wonder what the odds are that no deal is achieved. This is an opportunity for a betting market. So far almost one year on from the vote Tm has got absolutely nowhere. Yet we are to believe in under 2 years it will all be sorted. At what point does the credibility run out?SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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I was a remainer, but I am a realist.hamiltonace said:
That is the standard leaver statement but wonder what the odds are that no deal is achieved. This is an opportunity for a betting market. So far almost one year on from the vote Tm has got absolutely nowhere. Yet we are to believe in under 2 years it will all be sorted. At what point does the credibility run out?SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Its significance is to confirm - if any confirmation was needed - that the EU will leak selectively to bolster its own case. Meanwhile the Telegraph is leading with:
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
Expect a deafening silence.....0 -
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce. It is not in the EU's interest to treat the UK sympathetically, pour encourager les autres. It has to keep its eyes focussed on ever closer union. The UK, or what is left of it in the future, will become a pariah state.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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It is clearly a dry run for the GE, and national factors will dominate local ones more than is usual for a set of local elections.
Turnout is lower than a GE, but then so was turnout in the last locals (both 2013 and 2016) so gains and losses will tell us something.
Whilst the vote shares obviously cannot be read straight across, whether or not the Tories are gaining significant vote share (and if so whether this is concentrating in areas like the Midlands and Wales as expected), the extent of Labour collapse (or resilience), the level of LibDem gains (and any regional pattern), the extent of SNP dominance, and whether UKIP achieves anything at all, are all factors to watch and with relevance to expectations for June 8.
Also worth nothing that, despite the vote shares not reading across, there will doubtless be parties tallying up the totals across the county wards within their constituency and seeking to use this data to establish the credibility of their challenge where it is useful.0 -
The turnout will be up on ordinary local elections. I doubt I have met a single elector who totally separates out the local position from the national.0
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It isn't a vote on Corbyn or May, it is local stuff.
Very difficult to assess in this unusual circumstance. They are often a free kick at the incumbent government. That may or may not be the case this year.0 -
Wow! A democratic referendum makes the UK 'the guilty party in a divorce'.daodao said:
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Says it all really.0 -
I am not gloating. The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK, but less unpalatable than being ruled from Germany as a province of a Federal European Union. I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....0 -
"The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK "daodao said:
I am not gloating. The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK, but less unpalatable than being ruled from Germany as a province of a Federal European Union. I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
You may have as low an opinion of politicians as I have but I doubt even Mrs May - a third rate politician # - is going to knowingly sign a disastrous deal..
# as opposed to Corbyn whom I will charitably call fifth rate, or Farron who is seventh rate..0 -
The results of the Locals will be a better pointer to the forthcoming GE results than those of the last GE.IanB2 said:It is clearly a dry run for the GE, and national factors will dominate local ones more than is usual for a set of local elections.
Turnout is lower than a GE, but then so was turnout in the last locals (both 2013 and 2016) so gains and losses will tell us something.
Whilst the vote shares obviously cannot be read straight across, whether or not the Tories are gaining significant vote share (and if so whether this is concentrating in areas like the Midlands and Wales as expected), the extent of Labour collapse (or resilience), the level of LibDem gains (and any regional pattern), the extent of SNP dominance, and whether UKIP achieves anything at all, are all factors to watch and with relevance to expectations for June 8.
Also worth nothing that, despite the vote shares not reading across, there will doubtless be parties tallying up the totals across the county wards within their constituency and seeking to use this data to establish the credibility of their challenge where it is useful.0 -
Junker- he is merely Merkel's voice.daodao said:
I am not gloating. The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK, but less unpalatable than being ruled from Germany as a province of a Federal European Union. I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
That statement is a damming indictment of the functioning of the EU. It states it is undemocratic, ruled from Germany and autocratic.
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Brexit cannot be a successdaodao said:
I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
Juncker.0 -
No deal, which is the alternative, may also be financially disastrous for the UK.madasafish said:
"The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK "daodao said:
I am not gloating. The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK, but less unpalatable than being ruled from Germany as a province of a Federal European Union. I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
You may have as low an opinion of politicians as I have but I doubt even Mrs May - a third rate politician # - is going to knowingly sign a disastrous deal..
# as opposed to Corbyn whom I will charitably call fifth rate, or Farron who is seventh rate..0 -
Unless not signing is, despite the less than credible claims to the contrary, actually worse.madasafish said:
"The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK "daodao said:
I am not gloating. The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK, but less unpalatable than being ruled from Germany as a province of a Federal European Union. I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
You may have as low an opinion of politicians as I have but I doubt even Mrs May - a third rate politician # - is going to knowingly sign a disastrous deal..
# as opposed to Corbyn whom I will charitably call fifth rate, or Farron who is seventh rate..0 -
It simply says that you seek to remind us that a bad decision is nevertheless still a decision and the OP reminds us that it is still bad.CarlottaVance said:
Wow! A democratic referendum makes the UK 'the guilty party in a divorce'.daodao said:
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Says it all really.0 -
Which is why I voted leave. However, I don't have any realistic expectation of a deal or decent relationship between the UK (or what is eventually left of it) and the EU post Brexit.philiph said:
Junker- he is merely Merkel's voice.daodao said:
I am not gloating. The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK, but less unpalatable than being ruled from Germany as a province of a Federal European Union. I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
That statement is a damming indictment of the functioning of the EU. It states it is undemocratic, ruled from Germany and autocratic.0 -
Oh dear -I see project fear and derision is up early this morning "pariah state" ? Really!daodao said:
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce. It is not in the EU's interest to treat the UK sympathetically, pour encourager les autres. It has to keep its eyes focussed on ever closer union. The UK, or what is left of it in the future, will become a pariah state.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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The Remoaners are having sleeping nights. Maybe after their Last Great Hope, Tim Farron, came out - as a Eurosceptic....?felix said:
Oh dear -I see project fear and derision is up early this morning "pariah state" ? Really!daodao said:
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce. It is not in the EU's interest to treat the UK sympathetically, pour encourager les autres. It has to keep its eyes focussed on ever closer union. The UK, or what is left of it in the future, will become a pariah state.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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Sounds to me like we are right to leave. Who wants to stay in a political union with people who think like that?daodao said:
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce. It is not in the EU's interest to treat the UK sympathetically, pour encourager les autres. It has to keep its eyes focussed on ever closer union. The UK, or what is left of it in the future, will become a pariah state.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a successdaodao said:
I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
Juncker.0 -
All wishful thinking on your part.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
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Any sensible EU politician isn't going to want May to come out of the GE with her and the country's bad decision and positioning vindicated in any way; that is just natural and to be expected. The question is how clever they can be in seeking to exercise any influence over things here, given that it is usually extremely difficult for any outside party to impact on a domestic election.0
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Little will change, we didn't have a decent relationship with the EU from the start of EU membership, but on balance I thought we were better off IN from future generations point of view.daodao said:
Which is why I voted leave. However, I don't have any realistic expectation of a deal or decent relationship between the UK (or what is eventually left of it) and the EU post Brexit.philiph said:
Junker- he is merely Merkel's voice.daodao said:
I am not gloating. The outcome may be financially disastrous for the UK, but less unpalatable than being ruled from Germany as a province of a Federal European Union. I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
That statement is a damming indictment of the functioning of the EU. It states it is undemocratic, ruled from Germany and autocratic.
Now we are leaving, lets get on with it (an quit the whining about it).0 -
And therefore any UK elector will want the opposite. By highlighting this there is an equivalence to the infamous Guardian letters years ago. Unintended consequences and all that.IanB2 said:Any sensible EU politician isn't going to want May to come out of the GE with her and the country's bad decision and positioning vindicated in any way; that is just natural and to be expected. The question is how clever they can be in seeking to exercise any influence over things here, given that it is usually extremely difficult for any outside party to impact on a domestic election.
0 -
The Sun getting on its high horse about the ethics of leaked conversations is one of the funnier items in the newspapers this morning.0
-
Surely Juncker is right. Agreement on the status of migrants was perhaps possible by the end of June when May got in contact in early April. Not particularly likely, but possible. May then decided to squander 2 of those 3 months on a needless election. The period now to negotiate agreement on status now has to be done in 3 weeks to meet that deadline, even not allowing for reshuffles etc. Juncker is right to be astonished that she still thinks it possible.CarlottaVance said:SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Its significance is to confirm - if any confirmation was needed - that the EU will leak selectively to bolster its own case. Meanwhile the Telegraph is leading with:
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
Expect a deafening silence.....0 -
The local election results will be far more interesting in Scotland and Wales than in England simply because of their universality. All Scottish and Welsh Councillors are up for election and the only difference between this and the GE is likely to be the level of turnout. Applying the usual criteria of propensity to vote (age, social class etc) this would normally favour the Tories somewhat.
For UKIP it is going to confirm their continuing disintegration, especially in Wales (in Scotland they barely trouble the scorers already). This is unlikely to give them much of a boost going into the General and may well encourage the already strong tendency of their former voters to vote Tory.
For Labour the loss of 150 or so Councillors in Scotland and a similar number in Wales is going to be a truly dreadful backdrop to the GE. If they lose a similar number in England, as seems likely, there may well be something like panic, especially if they less well in the Mayoral elections than expected.
In Scotland the vote will ultimately be about Indyref2, everything always is. This might drag out some otherwise reluctant SNP supporters to vote. It will certainly drag out some Unionists. The Unionists are a clear majority in Scotland but suffer from their vote being divided amongst 3 parties. I think Unionists will use the locals to work out which candidate is the Unionist to support in the general.0 -
Odd how for some desperate Remainers, Herr Juncker is now a reliable statesman of quality when only days ago he was an embarrassing piss-pot.
No doubt, if it's revealed that Jezza wants another referendum, he will suddenly be a Churchillian figure - the Abraham Lincoln of our time.
Is the referendum still a sore point in London? Up here, it seems to be history. The prevailing view from the great majority is let's get on with it and have it done - from both sides.0 -
Even Remain voters think the EU is out to punish us:
Thinking about the forthcoming negootiations with the European Union, what attitude do you think other European countries will end up taking?
They will probably negotiate constructively to find
a deal that works for both Britain and the EU: 33
They will probably obstruct a good deal to punish
Britain and discourage other countries from leaving: 490 -
its not a needless election, in your mind maybe, but it isn't, its very necessary,foxinsoxuk said:
Surely Juncker is right. Agreement on the status of migrants was perhaps possible by the end of June when May got in contact in early April. Not particularly likely, but possible. May then decided to squander 2 of those 3 months on a needless election. The period now to negotiate agreement on status now has to be done in 3 weeks to meet that deadline, even not allowing for reshuffles etc. Juncker is right to be astonished that she still thinks it possible.CarlottaVance said:SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Its significance is to confirm - if any confirmation was needed - that the EU will leak selectively to bolster its own case. Meanwhile the Telegraph is leading with:
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
Expect a deafening silence.....0 -
“Serafin warned everyone present that it was very important not to give the impression that the EU was blocking an early agreement on citizens’ rights.”foxinsoxuk said:
May then decided to squander 2 of those 3 months on a needless election.CarlottaVance said:SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Its significance is to confirm - if any confirmation was needed - that the EU will leak selectively to bolster its own case. Meanwhile the Telegraph is leading with:
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
Expect a deafening silence.....0 -
Even after the election was announced the EU side were aiming for of a deal by the autumn:foxinsoxuk said:
Surely Juncker is right. Agreement on the status of migrants was perhaps possible by the end of June when May got in contact in early April. Not particularly likely, but possible. May then decided to squander 2 of those 3 months on a needless election. The period now to negotiate agreement on status now has to be done in 3 weeks to meet that deadline, even not allowing for reshuffles etc. Juncker is right to be astonished that she still thinks it possible.CarlottaVance said:SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Its significance is to confirm - if any confirmation was needed - that the EU will leak selectively to bolster its own case. Meanwhile the Telegraph is leading with:
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
Expect a deafening silence.....
http://www.politico.eu/article/merkel-eu-aims-to-end-phase-1-of-brexit-talks-by-fall/0 -
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a successdaodao said:
I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
Juncker.0 -
To be frank, they should mind their own business!IanB2 said:Any sensible EU politician isn't going to want May to come out of the GE with her and the country's bad decision and positioning vindicated in any way; that is just natural and to be expected. The question is how clever they can be in seeking to exercise any influence over things here, given that it is usually extremely difficult for any outside party to impact on a domestic election.
0 -
Why is the election necessary? To get the Tories off the hook of the election expenses scandal from GE2015?SquareRoot said:
its not a needless election, in your mind maybe, but it isn't, its very necessary,foxinsoxuk said:
Surely Juncker is right. Agreement on the status of migrants was perhaps possible by the end of June when May got in contact in early April. Not particularly likely, but possible. May then decided to squander 2 of those 3 months on a needless election. The period now to negotiate agreement on status now has to be done in 3 weeks to meet that deadline, even not allowing for reshuffles etc. Juncker is right to be astonished that she still thinks it possible.CarlottaVance said:SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Its significance is to confirm - if any confirmation was needed - that the EU will leak selectively to bolster its own case. Meanwhile the Telegraph is leading with:
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
Expect a deafening silence.....
I hope that the Tory majority is unchanged post June 8th.0 -
Nice try. It means that its more important for the EU to see Britain fail than to reach a mutually beneficial agreement - as voters have already rumbled. Including Remain voters. and Lib Dems.....foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a successdaodao said:
I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
Juncker.
0 -
I agree.CarlottaVance said:
It means that its more important for the EU to see Britain fail than to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a successdaodao said:
I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
Juncker.0 -
Can be, or can be allowed to be?foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a successdaodao said:
I just think that the UK government has unrealistic expectations of reaching a reasonable deal with the EU. Don't blame Herr Juncker - he is merely Merkel's voice.CarlottaVance said:
What The Sun Says:daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
What was almost as repugnant yesterday was the shameful glee of diehard Remainers as they gullibly swallowed Juncker’s every last syllable, desperate for their prejudices to be confirmed. They are willing him on, willing Brussels on, hoping their own Prime Minister falls flat on her face.
Why? Because it is more important to them to be proved “right”, to assert what they see as their intellectual and moral superiority over 17.4million Brexit voters, than it is for Britain to emerge with a decent deal and prosper thereafter.
Ultimately they hope we are humiliated so totally that we give up on Brexit.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3458648/jean-claude-junckers-leak-of-his-talk-with-theresa-may-is-treacherous-and-one-sided/
I can't for the life of me think who they could possibly mean.....
Juncker.0 -
So that the A50 period can be extended if necessary to get ratification of the deal without impinging on the next election campaign, of course.daodao said:
Why is the election necessary?SquareRoot said:
its not a needless election, in your mind maybe, but it isn't, its very necessary,foxinsoxuk said:
Surely Juncker is right. Agreement on the status of migrants was perhaps possible by the end of June when May got in contact in early April. Not particularly likely, but possible. May then decided to squander 2 of those 3 months on a needless election. The period now to negotiate agreement on status now has to be done in 3 weeks to meet that deadline, even not allowing for reshuffles etc. Juncker is right to be astonished that she still thinks it possible.CarlottaVance said:SquareRoot said:
We only have one side to say it was disastrous, plus those who want to believe it to be so. In the round its insignificant. A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Its significance is to confirm - if any confirmation was needed - that the EU will leak selectively to bolster its own case. Meanwhile the Telegraph is leading with:
Revealed: How EU has been secretly plotting to block Theresa May over EU migrants for weeks
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/01/revealed-eu-has-secretly-plotting-block-theresa-may-eu-migrants/
Expect a deafening silence.....
0 -
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
Of course, given that he's a drunk and Barnier may charitably be described as less than aware of his surroundings, it's possible that they really are confused about what was said. And we should always consider the possibility that even Juncker is right at times (there was a moment in 1992, apparently, when he got the winner of the Euro cup) while Theresa May is quite capable of lying when it suits her purpose.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.0 -
Has June always been a propitious GE month for the Govt of the day?0
-
-
If everything in Scotland is always about Indyref2 it seems increasingly, despite Mike's best efforts, that everything on here is about Brexit. It gets a little tedious.0
-
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..0 -
It means that its more important for the EU to see Britain fail than to reach a mutually beneficial agreement."
Of course. They are generally unelected politicians, protected from the folly of their actions by large salaries and pensions. Of far more importance is their standing and reputation and commitment to the European dream.
Juncker remains an unelected piss pot, but in his own mind, he's a genius with world-wide acclaim, even if he wakes with a hangover in the morning.0 -
We've been secretly having it off with parliamentary democracy.CarlottaVance said:
Wow! A democratic referendum makes the UK 'the guilty party in a divorce'.daodao said:
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Says it all really.0 -
The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
We had a brief discussion about diets yesterday. But that was in between all the discussion about Brexit.kle4 said:
No kidding. People are getting unhinged as well.DavidL said:If everything in Scotland is always about Indyref2 it seems increasingly, despite Mike's best efforts, that everything on here is about Brexit. It gets a little tedious.
0 -
I think the CPS will think they will struggle to persuade a jury that individual candidates set out to deceive - there may well be a case for the central party organisation to answer, but its individual MPs in the firing line, or not.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..
TBH reads a bit like 'whistling to keep spirits up'.......0 -
I think the EU want to make sure we've screwed ourselves!Luckyguy1983 said:
We've been secretly having it off with parliamentary democracy.CarlottaVance said:
Wow! A democratic referendum makes the UK 'the guilty party in a divorce'.daodao said:
Rubbish. The UK is not merely a 3rd country, but the guilty party in a divorce.SquareRoot said:
A deal will be done because the EU needs the UK as much as the UK needs the EU, if not more on the EU side.daodao said:Brexit difficulties, as exemplified by the disastrous meeting between the PM and the president of the EU commission over dinner last week, are currently dominating the news headlines, including on the BBC. The likelihood of car crash Brexit, as is to be expected in an acrimonious divorce, could have a major influence on the local elections as well as the GE. If the UK government seems to be incompetent in its approach to negotiations with the EU, will the Tories suffer in the real polls, both local and general?
Says it all really.
Which leads to a word they probably applied to is a lot recently...and by coincidence we are now all using about them
0 -
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
Of course, given that he's a drunk and Barnier may charitably be described as less than aware of his surroundings, it's possible that they really are confused about what was said. And we should always consider the possibility that even Juncker is right at times (there was a moment in 1992, apparently, when he got the winner of the Euro cup) while Theresa May is quite capable of lying when it suits her purpose.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.0 -
Yes, the CPS and Electoral Commission are looking at two different things. The Commission are more focussed on the party organisation side of things.CarlottaVance said:
I think the CPS will think they will struggle to persuade a jury that individual candidates set out to deceive - there may well be a case for the central party organisation to answer, but its individual MPs in the firing line, or not.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..
TBH reads a bit like 'whistling to keep spirits up'.......0 -
@iainmartin1
This is the end for May. Voters famously like Juncker coming to dinner leaking the lot and then arranging for the Germans to patronise us.
She'd might as well give up now.....0 -
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
Probably shouldn't be using such phrases if they are open to such different interpretations.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
Of course, given that he's a drunk and Barnier may charitably be described as less than aware of his surroundings, it's possible that they really are confused about what was said. And we should always consider the possibility that even Juncker is right at times (there was a moment in 1992, apparently, when he got the winner of the Euro cup) while Theresa May is quite capable of lying when it suits her purpose.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.0 -
Not when dealing with the carnival of mad paranoiacs that comprise the hardened Leavers, no.RobD said:
Probably shouldn't be using such phrases if they are open to such different interpretations.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
Of course, given that he's a drunk and Barnier may charitably be described as less than aware of his surroundings, it's possible that they really are confused about what was said. And we should always consider the possibility that even Juncker is right at times (there was a moment in 1992, apparently, when he got the winner of the Euro cup) while Theresa May is quite capable of lying when it suits her purpose.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.0 -
The question for us is, do we want the deal the EU are offering, subject to further negotiation? My guess is we will because we have to agree something by 29 March 2019, there won't be anything else on the table and it gives us certain things we want.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
Of course, given that he's a drunk and Barnier may charitably be described as less than aware of his surroundings, it's possible that they really are confused about what was said. And we should always consider the possibility that even Juncker is right at times (there was a moment in 1992, apparently, when he got the winner of the Euro cup) while Theresa May is quite capable of lying when it suits her purpose.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
There's a lot of nonsense going around - not all, or even mostly, on the EU side.0 -
We have no idea how strong the case is against any of them.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..0 -
The EU are indifferent to any leverage they have over elected politicians in their negotiations?AlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
It's a view.....0 -
I thought it was a legitimate criticismAlastairMeeks said:
Not when dealing with the carnival of mad paranoiacs that comprise the hardened Leavers, no.RobD said:
Probably shouldn't be using such phrases if they are open to such different interpretations. 0 -
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
As I said, I haven't read the published transcript but I thought it was a German translation? That's why I put (sic) next to original. As you will know, translations of translations raise very difficult problems.foxinsoxuk said:I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.
It's either extremely careless wording or a threat. I would say, even rating him as low as I do, the latter. It's ironic if it was taken as a threat when he didn't mean it, given that's exactly the way he's been treating May.0 -
Sorry! Quite a major development however. On topic, the locals will get very little interest and may not be a good indicator.DavidL said:If everything in Scotland is always about Indyref2 it seems increasingly, despite Mike's best efforts, that everything on here is about Brexit. It gets a little tedious.
0 -
Do you think, given current polling, the EU is going to waste much time trying to influence the outcome of the present election?CarlottaVance said:
The EU are indifferent to any leverage they have over elected politicians in their negotiations?AlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
It's a view.....0 -
That's true, although the bar is definitely higher.Sean_F said:
We have no idea how strong the case is against any of them.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..0 -
It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing. Both of us.0
-
There's a fallacy in that argument, which is the concept of an 'EU politician'. While some - Tusk, Juncker, Barnier - are genuine EU politicians, most of those who are the key players (Merkel, Macron presumably and the other 25 heads of government/state) are national politicians with their own domestic audiences and pressures. Their interests and needs from the Brexit process are rather different from those whose sole goal is creating and strengthening the EU.IanB2 said:Any sensible EU politician isn't going to want May to come out of the GE with her and the country's bad decision and positioning vindicated in any way; that is just natural and to be expected. The question is how clever they can be in seeking to exercise any influence over things here, given that it is usually extremely difficult for any outside party to impact on a domestic election.
0 -
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
YesAlastairMeeks said:
Do you think, given current polling, the EU is going to waste much time trying to influence the outcome of the present election?CarlottaVance said:
The EU are indifferent to any leverage they have over elected politicians in their negotiations?AlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
It's a view.....0 -
Can I therefore include you as the inaugural member of "Leavers who are prepared to admit that exit negotiations are proving much harder than we expected"?kle4 said:It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing.
0 -
Interesting piece on Le pens chances,
Summary - she's trying, she's throwing everything she can at it, but she still really needs both to get very lucky and for Macron to mess up, to have a good shot.
http://www.politico.eu/article/how-marine-le-pen-could-win-french-elections-2017-emmanuel-macron/0 -
Still no answer. I assume that you agree that this has been good for TMAlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
Then there's no point trying to reason with you. The EU can read opinion polls as well as the rest of us and will be fully aware that for most voters Jeremy Corbyn isn't an option.Big_G_NorthWales said:
YesAlastairMeeks said:
Do you think, given current polling, the EU is going to waste much time trying to influence the outcome of the present election?CarlottaVance said:
The EU are indifferent to any leverage they have over elected politicians in their negotiations?AlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
It's a view.....0 -
I haven't really given the question any thought either way. It is pointless to do so.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Still no answer. I assume that you agree that this has been good for TMAlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
I can see all sorts of problems setting up a trial. How do you find a neutral jury? Who would the judge be? What criteria need to be used to find them guilty? Is it a simple case of the letter of the law, or if the returns were filed in the wrong place by mistake and made no actual difference do you let them off with a slap on the wrist? What sentence would be passed given Labour and the Liberal Democrats were only fined for identical offences?RobD said:
That's true, although the bar is definitely higher.Sean_F said:
We have no idea how strong the case is against any of them.RobD said:
"Except no, we already know that there is a very strong case against many if not all of the thirty plus. "CarlottaVance said:
Is this true? I thought the bar for a criminal conviction in a case like this was very high?
Edit: Largest scandal in British political history? Hmmm..
It seems likely that in most cases the CPS will think of the difficulties and decide not to bother. It may depend on whether there is something really bad in among it that they feel is deliberate, malicious and unambiguously criminal.0 -
To be honest it is a simple question and I do not understand why you cannot give an answerAlastairMeeks said:
I haven't really given the question any thought either way. It is pointless to do so.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Still no answer. I assume that you agree that this has been good for TMAlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
MAY Day isn’t what it used to be for Scottish Labour. In times past, thirsty supporters would have spent the workers’ holiday at a miners’ gala. These days it’s all hands to the patisserie. Reduced to one MP, the party has circled the wagons round Ian Murray in Edinburgh South.
It’s been a strange journey for the People’s Party, from Red Clydeside to Cerise Morningside.
But Mr Murray embraced it yesterday, ignoring the siren call of a pasty-lined Greggs to campaign with his neighbour Alistair Darling at a “Bruntsfield Boulangerie” two doors down.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15258309.Sketch__Labour_unity_flakier_than_the_pastry_in_Edinburgh_South/?ref=twtrec0 -
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
Of course, given that he's a drunk and Barnier may charitably be described as less than aware of his surroundings, it's possible that they really are confused about what was said. And we should always consider the possibility that even Juncker is right at times (there was a moment in 1992, apparently, when he got the winner of the Euro cup) while Theresa May is quite capable of lying when it suits her purpose.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.0 -
Mr Meeks,
"I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more."
I tend to disagree. Although I regard you as one of the more perspicacious of the posters, you do lose judgement when it comes to Brexit.
On the basis of "all's fair in love and war", I think that weakening the position of the opposition will give you an edge in any negotiation. They already have an edge as their negotiators tend to be unelected so don't need to worry about PR.
At the moment it's a phoney propaganda war, they are circling for position. I'm not sure Juncker is the right man to spearhead an assault, though.0 -
I never thought they would be easy, so if you could categorise as distinct from those who thought it would be without cost or effort, sure. It was always going to be very tough, and you'll find I always said that, but it is clear it's not going to work - fundamentally we are both not interested in dealing because no one wants to take a political hit.AlastairMeeks said:
Can I therefore include you as the inaugural member of "Leavers who are prepared to admit that exit negotiations are proving much harder than we expected"?kle4 said:It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing.
My mistake was thinking rational heads might prevail after initial wailing, giving negotiations a chance.
0 -
I don't think the Europeans care whether May has a bigger majority or not. They have never suggested the Brexit vote is reversed. It is irrelevant to them. What they see is a pig-headed refusal by May to realise that complex negotiations are not simple even for a WTO Hard Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
The European consensual style of coalition politics is very different to our oppositional adversarial style. Euro-politicians are constantly negotiating with political opponents, while ours are constantly rubbishing the opposition. To a consensual politician, May's position looks like a refusal to negotiate seriously.
I think Juncker is right on the issue. I do not think that the rights of EU citizens in the UK will be clear by the end of June0 -
A handy if unintentional consequence?AlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.0 -
As opposed to 'Leavers who said the EU would not negotiate in good faith'?AlastairMeeks said:
Can I therefore include you as the inaugural member of "Leavers who are prepared to admit that exit negotiations are proving much harder than we expected"?kle4 said:It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing.
Exhibit 1 Brexit cannot be a success0 -
I've now given the question the three seconds thought it merits.Big_G_NorthWales said:
To be honest it is a simple question and I do not understand why you cannot give an answerAlastairMeeks said:
I haven't really given the question any thought either way. It is pointless to do so.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Still no answer. I assume that you agree that this has been good for TMAlastairMeeks said:
Because I think it a pointless question. Whatever the leak was designed to achieve, its impact either way on Theresa May's short term popularity was not among the aims.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that but you have avoided my questionAlastairMeeks said:
I very much doubt the EU side cares what it does to Theresa May's popularity or what the British public thinks. That's not their concern any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:The way the EU have handled this is cack - handed. I believe that they are so out of touch with the character of the British that they genuinely believe that by saying the talks could collapse will create a mad panic and suddenly everyone with have remorse and prevent TM getting a reasonable majority.
The problem is that they have been shown to be devious and untrustworthy while TM has risen above the fray and emerged strengthened.
I would be interested to know from those pro EU on this forum if they feel this has enhanced or reduced TM popularity.
The cultist Leavers will rally behind Theresa May and foam wildly about drunken Eurocrats leaking (forgetting how excited they were when Michael Gove planted a story on the Sun's front page about the Queen's views on Brexit).
Remainers will have all their own default prejudices confirmed about the idiocy of the UK's negotiating stance.
The general public will see foreigners being rude in foreign about the British government's approach and will have a spasm of insular loyalty.
It will all be forgotten about by Friday.0 -
Thank you .... and away you go to toil to ensure Mike Smithson and I may enjoy our free bus pass ....ydoethur said:0 -
You're drinking deep from the Kool Aid this morning. That Telegraph article has less in it than a can of Diet Coke caffeine free.CarlottaVance said:
As opposed to 'Leavers who said the EU would not negotiate in good faith'?AlastairMeeks said:
Can I therefore include you as the inaugural member of "Leavers who are prepared to admit that exit negotiations are proving much harder than we expected"?kle4 said:It is very obvious no one is prepared to dial back aggressive rhetoric, and are priotising blame shifting over deal making. As such they might as well all announce right now no deal will be done so they can spend the next 2 years preparing.
0 -
A number of our Iberian nurses have decided the same. I suspect more will follow. Brexit is a lose-lose arrangement.Bromptonaut said:
For our French employee, who's decided to return to France partly because of the unwelcome atmosphere post-Brexit (including being abused in public for speaking French) it's already a failure.foxinsoxuk said:
I believe the statement "Brexit cannot be a success" was made in English at the ill fated dinner. I don't think that it was translated to German then back again in the leaks.ydoethur said:
Now there I disagree. I haven't seen the original (sic) German transcript but to play semantics, I think there is a definite subtext to his comment. If he said 'will not' then he is expressing an opinion. Fine, he's entitled to do that, and he's probably right. If however he did say 'cannot' or worse still, 'must not' he's stating a policy and negotiating position, moreover stating it as a threat.foxinsoxuk said:
"Brexit cannot be a success" simply means that no deal can be as good as the existing terms of our relationship with the EU. It is simply a restatement of "Brexit means Brexit",philiph said:
That statement is worrying as it places a blockage on goodwill and intent during real negotiations. If it is a considered and discussed position as opposed to an off the cuff remark, then the EU are idiots.CarlottaVance said:
Brexit cannot be a success
Juncker.
What it looks like to me is that the EU are providing themselves with alibis to blame the British when the talks (which they clearly have no intention of allowing to come to fruition) break down, so the British people will blame their politicians and come back to the EU.
As a strategy, it seems about as sensible as the time Burnside ordered his men to cross a waist-deep river on a narrow plank bridge defended by machine guns. But unfortunately the very low quality of European politicians right now means they are dumb enough to think it might work.
I would therefore disagree further with Juncker - the chances of no deal were 50% before his idiocy, they're now near 100%.
If "success" means "a better arrangement" then to a europhile it is impossible for it to be a success.
I suspect a Europhobe would interpret the meaning of success differently. "Success" is a subjective value judgement in any walk of life.0
