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Hmmmmmm... Not sure your talking about John The Loony here?malcolmg said:
Afternoon Gin, not a great place today , the loonies are out in force and they are on something dodgy. Can only suffer it in small doses.GIN1138 said:
Afternoon Malc!malcolmg said:
Impossible he is a cretinTheScreamingEagles said:
This morning I did a betting thread, and you moaned and bitched like a whore.saddened said:
Are you in with a shout?TheScreamingEagles said:May's mediocrities are being foisted on associations in safe seats
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/30/tory-grassroots-fury-selection-stitch-up-no10-allies-parachuted/
Trolling appears to be de rigueur now.
Perhaps you might offer something a bit more substantive in your contributions.
Nevermind... Only five weeks to go - It'll fly by!
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51% of Scots now oppose a second independence referendum in the next 5 years with just 42% in favour and if the SNP fall back that would confirm itTheuniondivvie said:
But then she'd be ignoring the will of the people.HYUFD said:
They don't want them as they have other things to focus on but if the SNP voteshare did fall by 7% to 43% or so I expect Sturgeon would have to start to tone down the indyref2 rhetoricTheuniondivvie said:
That must be why Mummy May & Rape Clause Ruth are so desperate to have one then.HYUFD said:
If Yes lose another referendum, especially if there is a swing to No, it would kill off independence for a generation or moreydoethur said:
Just to prove how utterly ridiculous those figures are, the Liberal Democrats would lose Orkney...CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 2
...to the Conservatives.
@Alistair thanks for the further info about the Greens poised to pull out of Moray and Stirling. That is in itself a strategy that carries risks though. If the greens stand down candidates where they have a substantial vote - and then their voters don't turn out - there will be the unfortunate side-effect of depressing the vote in favour of another referendum.
Green + SNP = 50% has to be the target if Nicola's referendum is to materialise.
Although come to think of it, since it would almost certainly be another 'no' vote but demographics are on their side, there may be method in the madness!
What's that, Skip?
Now is not the time?
Divisive?
We don't know what Brexit will look like?
A distraction from our delicate Brexit negotiations?
'SNP election success would entitle them to new independence vote, poll finds
A majority of voters north of the border believe the SNP would have the right to hold a second independence referendum if the party wins more than half of the Scottish seats in the General Election, a poll has found.'
https://tinyurl.com/m2lkf4b
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8579950837523783680 -
These kind of guys you mean?Schards said:
I think the tory vote would benefit greatly from May having some mouth frothing nationalist or socialist getting into her face and abusing her in the street in a way that it would not have benefitted Cameron,malcolmg said:
You would have thought given she has not met any public so far that she might have brought this up some time ago. Obviously just party propaganda to try and deflect from fact that she is hiding from the public.TheScreamingEagles said:Gordon Brown used to shout and scream at his staff didn't he as well?
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/858630839298555904
https://twitter.com/MartynMcL/status/5132602835117260800 -
I don't think anybody believed the numbers from that subsample. Is there anyone who is predicting any SLAB gains?malcolmg said:
LOL Bulldog Ruth will be FM, I may as well join the fantasists, aliens will be living here by July.justin124 said:
On those figures Labour could also win 5/6 seats back from the SNP!calum said:
17 SCON !CarlottaVance said:
YouGov subsample - so for entertainment purposes only.....SimonStClare said:
Interesting - Presumably a subsidiary subsample question of <<1K ?</p>CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 20 -
These figures are also interesting 'The survey found 41% favour independence for Scotland inside the EU while 10% support Scottish independence outside the EU.
Some 48% said they would prefer Scotland to remain inside the UK but outside the EU, the Sunday Times Scotland said.'
http://home.bt.com/news/uk-news/snp-election-success-would-entitle-them-to-new-independence-vote-poll-finds-11364176905595#.WQYCRROKgdc.twitter
So about a fifth of SNP voters now back Brexit and Sturgeon cannot win a majority for independence without them0 -
I presume that is May meeting a member of the Scottish public ?Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing from the complete absence of reposts & fawning tributes to this beauty that even the PB Yoons found it too much for their gag reflex.
https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/8585826815668019210 -
A swing of 9% to the Tories in Labour-held seats, as implied by ICM, would give the Tories 410-420 seats.0
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Did they talk about the gays?Ishmael_Z said:0 -
Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
Carshalton, it should be noted, voted Leave in the referendum, and UKIP got 15% of the vote in 2015.another_richard said:
The Conservatives are fortunate that most of their London targets require a small swing:Sean_F said:
Which would back up the view that Labour will do worst where it hurts them most, like the Conservatives did in 1997. A pro-Labour swing in places like Kensington doesn't help them at all, whereas a big swing in Leave areas puts seats like Ashfield in play.another_richard said:
Labour majorities of up to 15% if its the same as the previous ICM.Sean_F said:
We'd need to know which marginal seats.GIN1138 said:
Wonder how an 11% Con lead in the marginals compare's with the Con lead in 2015?RobD said:
From the Gold Standard, no lessGIN1138 said:This ICM poll doesn't seem to have had much attention
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3446681/jeremy-corbyn-is-heading-for-a-rout-in-junes-general-election-as-he-lags-behind-theresa-may/
Con 19% Lead.
Also says Conservatoives have an 11% lead in marginals - How would that compare with 2015?
A swing of 9% from 2015.
Ealing Acton 0.3%
Brentford 0.5%
Ilford N 0.7%
Hampstead 1.1%
Enfield N 1.2%
Carshalton 1.7% (from LibDems)
Harrow W 2.5%
Westminster N 2.6%
Tooting 2.7%
Eltham 3.2%
...
big gap
...
Hammersmith 6.9%
Dagenham 8.6%
So even a London swing of under half that of the national swing is still very profitable for the Conservatives.
I would reckon this should be an odds on Conservative gain (indeed, I'd want to get at least 3-1 to bet on the LibDems).
(Twickenham, on the other hand, voted heavily for Remain, and UKIP lost their deposit.)
I'd reckon the LibDems are more likely to gain Twickenham than hold C&W.0 -
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.
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Way too anecdotal given the current polls. More likely that the level of Labour presence/activity was making voters excessively polite - but dishonest - on the doorstep, than that this area has somehow completely bucked the national trend.SquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
Speaking Of Pisa tests I can come back to my new boring section of why Wales needs to change;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38208738
Fucking last, improving but still dead last in the UK, with a gap between the Welsh and Scotland who are the next up. And this is the primary reason for Wales having such economicsand social problems, low education levels mean firms don't set up there and the and brightest leave. Then they have an intake of the elderly who want to live in the scenic areas.0 -
Not necessarily so. Labour polled over 22% in last year's Holyrood elections.Pulpstar said:
Labour on 25 ?CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 2
Laughable.0 -
Con GAIN Nottingham council.NickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
This is canvassing for County elections presumably. I suspect the Labour vote wont collapse as much as polling suggests for the locals, as people are aware they are not partaking in the referendum on Corbyn that has been organized for 8th June.IanB2 said:
Way too anecdotal given the current polls. More likely that the level of Labour presence/activity was making voters excessively polite - but dishonest - on the doorstep, than that this area has somehow completely bucked the national trend.SquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
Subset Alert: YouGov London subset gives Labour 45, Con 30, LD 15, UKIP 6.0
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Which one? I think I live in the county now, previously I lived in the City which is solid Labour.nunu said:
Con GAIN Nottingham council.NickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
Nottinghamshire. This is County stuff, not City.nunu said:
Con GAIN Nottingham council.NickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
As useful as his canvass reports from 2015 I suspectSquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
It will be Nottinghamshire County Council.0
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Why have Scotland's relative test scores come down so much since 2006?HaroldO said:Speaking Of Pisa tests I can come back to my new boring section of why Wales needs to change;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38208738
Fucking last, improving but still dead last in the UK, with a gap between the Welsh and Scotland who are the next up. And this is the primary reason for Wales having such economicsand social problems, low education levels mean firms don't set up there and the and brightest leave. Then they have an intake of the elderly who want to live in the scenic areas.0 -
Tick tock.Charles said:
As useful as his canvass reports from 2015 I suspectSquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
It may not collapse, but there will likely be a big swing from Lab to Con., compared to 2013.rottenborough said:
This is canvassing for County elections presumably. I suspect the Labour vote wont collapse as much as polling suggests for the locals, as people are aware they are not partaking in the referendum on Corbyn that has been organized for 8th June.IanB2 said:
Way too anecdotal given the current polls. More likely that the level of Labour presence/activity was making voters excessively polite - but dishonest - on the doorstep, than that this area has somehow completely bucked the national trend.SquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
I think this is from Yougov [ subset ].SNP actually 38Pulpstar said:
Labour on 25 ?CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 2
Laughable.0 -
Indeed.rcs1000 said:
Carshalton, it should be noted, voted Leave in the referendum, and UKIP got 15% of the vote in 2015.another_richard said:
The Conservatives are fortunate that most of their London targets require a small swing:Sean_F said:
Which would back up the view that Labour will do worst where it hurts them most, like the Conservatives did in 1997. A pro-Labour swing in places like Kensington doesn't help them at all, whereas a big swing in Leave areas puts seats like Ashfield in play.another_richard said:
Labour majorities of up to 15% if its the same as the previous ICM.Sean_F said:
We'd need to know which marginal seats.GIN1138 said:
Wonder how an 11% Con lead in the marginals compare's with the Con lead in 2015?RobD said:
From the Gold Standard, no lessGIN1138 said:This ICM poll doesn't seem to have had much attention
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3446681/jeremy-corbyn-is-heading-for-a-rout-in-junes-general-election-as-he-lags-behind-theresa-may/
Con 19% Lead.
Also says Conservatoives have an 11% lead in marginals - How would that compare with 2015?
A swing of 9% from 2015.
Ealing Acton 0.3%
Brentford 0.5%
Ilford N 0.7%
Hampstead 1.1%
Enfield N 1.2%
Carshalton 1.7% (from LibDems)
Harrow W 2.5%
Westminster N 2.6%
Tooting 2.7%
Eltham 3.2%
...
big gap
...
Hammersmith 6.9%
Dagenham 8.6%
So even a London swing of under half that of the national swing is still very profitable for the Conservatives.
I would reckon this should be an odds on Conservative gain (indeed, I'd want to get at least 3-1 to bet on the LibDems).
(Twickenham, on the other hand, voted heavily for Remain, and UKIP lost their deposit.)
I'd reckon the LibDems are more likely to gain Twickenham than hold C&W.
The 9/5 on a Conservative gain in Carshalton is good value.
The Labour vote in Carshalton is also very different to that in Richmond and Twickenham.
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Notts County Council is one to watch on local election night.0
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Just back from walking the dogs around the back field. Grass is long with both lots of rain and sun, and temperatures mostly in the 70s and 80s (20s C), hopefully will be able to hay in about two weeks.
Long and short, our tiny Irish Jack Russell disappears completely in the grass so I only know where he is by the grass moving. But he somehow managed to flush out an equally hidden wild turkey.
I always knew wild turkeys roosted at night, but I had no idea how well they fly. Rather like a large goose. Perhaps the two German Shepherds racing after it were an incentive ...0 -
It's odd isn't it? I only know anything about English education and that is out of date knowledge now.MTimT said:
Why have Scotland's relative test scores come down so much since 2006?HaroldO said:Speaking Of Pisa tests I can come back to my new boring section of why Wales needs to change;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38208738
Fucking last, improving but still dead last in the UK, with a gap between the Welsh and Scotland who are the next up. And this is the primary reason for Wales having such economicsand social problems, low education levels mean firms don't set up there and the and brightest leave. Then they have an intake of the elderly who want to live in the scenic areas.0 -
Which wont worry the Conservatives as its in Rushcliffe constituency.SquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.
Now if there's lower than average swings to the Conservatives in their safe constituencies then there must be higher than average swings elsewhere.0 -
Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.
https://twitter.com/thebeatcroft/status/858606757802803200
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Notts - current position:
Lab: 34
Tories: 21
LibDem: 8
Indie: 4
(Few indie types around Mansfield).0 -
The polling evidence is limited, but is pointing this way (eg Kensington)another_richard said:
Which wont worry the Conservatives as its in Rushcliffe constituency.SquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.
Now if there's lower than average swings to the Conservatives in their safe constituencies then there must be higher than average swings elsewhere.0 -
Yes, that's right, it is.ThreeQuidder said:
Isn't this exactly what various countries already have, eg Oz and NZ?SeanT said:I've had me a policy idea for post-Brexit migration from the EU. Forget this visa-by-sector nonsense ("you can be a waiter but not a driver" etc etc).
Instead: offer all 18-30 year old EU citizens a blanket visa. You can come in for two years and do any job you like. But you won't get any benefits. Up to you.
If, at the end of the two years, you have landed yourself a job where we need people, a more highly skilled job, then congrats, you are welcome to stay.
What's not to like? We keep the keen young Europeans coming, but we don't give them benefits, Pret will still find all its staff; it is also a warm and friendly offer to the EU, showing that we would like to remain close allies, and have a genuinely special relationship.
Instead of taking the existing scheme and reducing it from its current worldwide potential to catering just for the EU - we should be looking to extend it globally.
Turning our eyes away from the wider world and looking only at the white EU bloc is a racist approach.0 -
oh...........rottenborough said:
Nottinghamshire. This is County stuff, not City.nunu said:
Con GAIN Nottingham council.NickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
I think Ken Clarke can rest easy.JohnO said:
Tick tock.Charles said:
As useful as his canvass reports from 2015 I suspectSquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
the county. I was only teasing anyway.....LOL.HaroldO said:
Which one? I think I live in the county now, previously I lived in the City which is solid Labour.nunu said:
Con GAIN Nottingham council.NickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
SNP actually on 36%.surbiton said:
I think this is from Yougov [ subset ].SNP actually 38Pulpstar said:
Labour on 25 ?CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 2
Laughable.0 -
Oooh she's nice.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.0 -
Heh, fair enough. I used to be a little in touch with local politics but not any more so have no idea what is going on. I always vote so I will be doing so on the day, god knows who for.nunu said:
the county. I was only teasing anyway.....LOL.HaroldO said:
Which one? I think I live in the county now, previously I lived in the City which is solid Labour.nunu said:
Con GAIN Nottingham council.NickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.0 -
That's a 15 point swing in under a week. YouGov have been struggling to meet quota in London and have been significantly upweighting small samples- so I suspect the London numbers might not be enormously reliable - that's not to say that "this one" is wrong - it could have been earlier ones.surbiton said:Subset Alert: YouGov London subset gives Labour 45, Con 30, LD 15, UKIP 6.
0 -
Let me just correct you there in line with the current leadership outlook and approach.NickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.
'Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Momentum Regional Peoples Committee (aka Victory for Julius Malema Branch) in Nottingham may see us home'0 -
Yougov gives the Tories a 14% lead in England - compared with 9.5% in 2015. That represents a 2.25% swing from Lab to Con which if universal would lead to 15 gains from Labour.0
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Not surprisingly you found the Scottish subsets perfectly good, the one you put up in here.CarlottaVance said:
That's a 15 point swing in under a week. YouGov have been struggling to meet quota in London and have been significantly upweighting small samples- so I suspect the London numbers might not be enormously reliable - that's not to say that "this one" is wrong - it could have been earlier ones.surbiton said:Subset Alert: YouGov London subset gives Labour 45, Con 30, LD 15, UKIP 6.
0 -
GeoffM said:
Oooh she's nice.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.0 -
Sorry ! I need to go to Specsavers.justin124 said:
SNP actually on 36%.surbiton said:
I think this is from Yougov [ subset ].SNP actually 38Pulpstar said:
Labour on 25 ?CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 2
Laughable.0 -
By the way, when pollsters give "England only" figures; are these weighted ? I know the subsets are not.0
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Just been out for the day in South Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire and, unlike Cambridge, there were no Labour signs out, several Lib Dem ones, and lots of blue ones. In fact, one house in Buckden had eight Conservative posters in its windows, a large banner on the fence, and a smaller one on another fence (oddly, one window had several in, whilst another window had none).
A bit of overkill, methinks.0 -
The faith in UNS on this site goes beyond all reason.0
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Miriam Brett is a strong candidate - if anyone can unseat the nonentity that is Carmichael, she'd be the sort to manage it. Worth watching.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.
https://twitter.com/thebeatcroft/status/8586067578028032000 -
Oh, and congrats to Bottas in the vroom vroom. Told you the boy was good! 0
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Indeed - and several of them could expect a first time incumbency bonus in the same way that Tory MPs resisted the pro-Labour swing in 2015.surbiton said:
Again according to UNS, 6 of them from London !!!!!!!!!!!!justin124 said:Yougov gives the Tories a 14% lead in England - compared with 9.5% in 2015. That represents a 2.25% swing from Lab to Con which if universal would lead to 15 gains from Labour.
0 -
A question to those who are more clued up on politics in Scotland.
When the next referendum on Independence takes place, will it be a joint ticket of "leaving UK" + "Joining EU"?
Or will it be - get independence first, and then later on have another referendum on whether Scotland should apply to join the EU or not?0 -
It is probably the ward candidate's family.JosiasJessop said:Just been out for the day in South Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire and, unlike Cambridge, there were no Labour signs out, several Lib Dem ones, and lots of blue ones. In fact, one house in Buckden had eight Conservative posters in its windows, a large banner on the fence, and a smaller one on another fence (oddly, one window had several in, whilst another window had none).
A bit of overkill, methinks.0 -
Mr. Jessop, bit annoyed with myself for not backing that, but there we are. At least someone (Mr. B?) did.
Post-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/russia-post-race-analysis.html0 -
That was my guess - the posters are probably there so no-on can look in and disturb the baby-eating.Pulpstar said:
It is probably the ward candidate's family.JosiasJessop said:Just been out for the day in South Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire and, unlike Cambridge, there were no Labour signs out, several Lib Dem ones, and lots of blue ones. In fact, one house in Buckden had eight Conservative posters in its windows, a large banner on the fence, and a smaller one on another fence (oddly, one window had several in, whilst another window had none).
A bit of overkill, methinks.0 -
What about East Lothian and Dumbarton ?kle4 said:
I don't think anybody believed the numbers from that subsample. Is there anyone who is predicting any SLAB gains?malcolmg said:
LOL Bulldog Ruth will be FM, I may as well join the fantasists, aliens will be living here by July.justin124 said:
On those figures Labour could also win 5/6 seats back from the SNP!calum said:
17 SCON !CarlottaVance said:
YouGov subsample - so for entertainment purposes only.....SimonStClare said:
Interesting - Presumably a subsidiary subsample question of <<1K ?</p>CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 20 -
Are people still insisting LD will win Bermondsey ? They can have Vauxhall instead.justin124 said:
Indeed - and several of them could expect a first time incumbency bonus in the same way that Tory MPs resisted the pro-Labour swing in 2015.surbiton said:
Again according to UNS, 6 of them from London !!!!!!!!!!!!justin124 said:Yougov gives the Tories a 14% lead in England - compared with 9.5% in 2015. That represents a 2.25% swing from Lab to Con which if universal would lead to 15 gains from Labour.
0 -
Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
-1 -
Which I also described as for entertainment purposes only. You really need to let go of your bitterness and hate - it can't be doing you any good.surbiton said:
Not surprisingly you found the Scottish subsets perfectly good, the one you put up in here.CarlottaVance said:
That's a 15 point swing in under a week. YouGov have been struggling to meet quota in London and have been significantly upweighting small samples- so I suspect the London numbers might not be enormously reliable - that's not to say that "this one" is wrong - it could have been earlier ones.surbiton said:Subset Alert: YouGov London subset gives Labour 45, Con 30, LD 15, UKIP 6.
0 -
I see Tim Farron's reticence on "theological" matters has evaporated.
The Lib Dems are buying advertising space on Google to promote a page entitled "Tim Farron: 'I do not think gay sex is a sin'", incorporating a rather selective version of his voting record on LGBT issues.0 -
If the SNP underperform expectations on Thursday , I could see their vote continue to slide to the advantage of all the pro-Union parties.0
-
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/30/hard-brexiteers-theresa-may-brexit-negotiations
"Conservatives who want the prime minister to have a stronger hand in the Brexit negotiations must realise that she may use it against them"0 -
Thanks I think many were not aware of that on here.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
0 -
I disagree. Very plain.GeoffM said:
Oooh she's nice.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.0 -
Well that was a good day. Watched the Tour de Yorkshire sweep by, went to the canalside festival and then had a couple of pints. Nice to leave politics behind for the day.
Now back to watching the gurning, stooping, lack of interpersonal skills PM taking people for fools.0 -
With politicians, the bar tends to be set fairly low.MonikerDiCanio said:
I disagree. Very plain.GeoffM said:
Oooh she's nice.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.0 -
Had you down as more of a Nissan mansurbiton said:
Are people still insisting LD will win Bermondsey ? They can have Vauxhall instead.justin124 said:
Indeed - and several of them could expect a first time incumbency bonus in the same way that Tory MPs resisted the pro-Labour swing in 2015.surbiton said:
Again according to UNS, 6 of them from London !!!!!!!!!!!!justin124 said:Yougov gives the Tories a 14% lead in England - compared with 9.5% in 2015. That represents a 2.25% swing from Lab to Con which if universal would lead to 15 gains from Labour.
0 -
Is that wise? It sounds like "when did you stop beating your wife" territoryChris said:I see Tim Farron's reticence on "theological" matters has evaporated.
The Lib Dems are buying advertising space on Google to promote a page entitled "Tim Farron: 'I do not think gay sex is a sin'", incorporating a rather selective version of his voting record on LGBT issues.0 -
BMW, mate. Nothing but BMW.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Had you down as more of a Nissan mansurbiton said:
Are people still insisting LD will win Bermondsey ? They can have Vauxhall instead.justin124 said:
Indeed - and several of them could expect a first time incumbency bonus in the same way that Tory MPs resisted the pro-Labour swing in 2015.surbiton said:
Again according to UNS, 6 of them from London !!!!!!!!!!!!justin124 said:Yougov gives the Tories a 14% lead in England - compared with 9.5% in 2015. That represents a 2.25% swing from Lab to Con which if universal would lead to 15 gains from Labour.
0 -
They should make posters with the slogan 'Sinning here', and a campaign with the theme 'it's not a sin to vote Lib Dem', targeted at Corbynites.Charles said:
Is that wise? It sounds like "when did you stop beating your wife" territoryChris said:I see Tim Farron's reticence on "theological" matters has evaporated.
The Lib Dems are buying advertising space on Google to promote a page entitled "Tim Farron: 'I do not think gay sex is a sin'", incorporating a rather selective version of his voting record on LGBT issues.0 -
If it was separate from England, Wales would be the 5th. poorest EU country. Eastern Europe was part of the Soviet empire 25 years ago but some of the eastern countries have now overtaken Wales. They certainly have in terms of broadband speed!!HaroldO said:Speaking Of Pisa tests I can come back to my new boring section of why Wales needs to change;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38208738
Fucking last, improving but still dead last in the UK, with a gap between the Welsh and Scotland who are the next up. And this is the primary reason for Wales having such economicsand social problems, low education levels mean firms don't set up there and the and brightest leave. Then they have an intake of the elderly who want to live in the scenic areas.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/good_for_business/?doc=522170 -
Okay; nothing to set the world on fire - but I wouldn't crawl over her to get to Sturgeon.MonikerDiCanio said:
I disagree. Very plain.GeoffM said:
Oooh she's nice.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.0 -
Shetland born? You have just lost the Orkney vote.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.
https://twitter.com/thebeatcroft/status/858606757802803200
Only outsiders with no allegiance to either island group do well here.
0 -
For example, compromise on the "divorce bill". With her current majority she would not be able to do that.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/30/hard-brexiteers-theresa-may-brexit-negotiations
"Conservatives who want the prime minister to have a stronger hand in the Brexit negotiations must realise that she may use it against them"
Incidentally, she needs a stronger hand to contain her right wing loonies rather than against the EU.
Why should the EU give a tuppence regarding her majority. They already know the referendum result.0 -
No idea. You think they're achievable?surbiton said:
What about East Lothian and Dumbarton ?kle4 said:
I don't think anybody believed the numbers from that subsample. Is there anyone who is predicting any SLAB gains?malcolmg said:
LOL Bulldog Ruth will be FM, I may as well join the fantasists, aliens will be living here by July.justin124 said:
On those figures Labour could also win 5/6 seats back from the SNP!calum said:
17 SCON !CarlottaVance said:
YouGov subsample - so for entertainment purposes only.....SimonStClare said:
Interesting - Presumably a subsidiary subsample question of <<1K ?</p>CarlottaVance said:SCOTTISH TORY SURGE KLAXON
Con: 32
Lab: 25
SNP: 36
LibD: 5
Grn: 2
Well, not many to lose there at least.surbiton said:
It's a starting point, perhaps.IanB2 said:The faith in UNS on this site goes beyond all reason.
0 -
I thought the islanders were equivocal towards the Scottish mainland, having once been part of Norway. Anyway, I went to put a bit of money on the L.Dems there and the odds had shortened from 1.5->1.44.SandyRentool said:
With politicians, the bar tends to be set fairly low.MonikerDiCanio said:
I disagree. Very plain.GeoffM said:
Oooh she's nice.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.0 -
You stick to kissy kissy with Big Al then.MonikerDiCanio said:
I disagree. Very plain.GeoffM said:
Oooh she's nice.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.
https://twitter.com/MrMalky/status/8568307580062720000 -
You didn't appreciate my 'omage to Sion Simon?Yorkcity said:
Thanks I think many were not aware of that on here.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
0 -
Seems that the 28.2% Stop Brexit Alliance is completely unaware of the Lib Dems or their key policy.0
-
Enda Kenny has got the EU Council to agree that if there was reunification of Ireland, the NI part will be in the EU automatically. Agreed, Scotland will not be in the same situation.Disraeli said:A question to those who are more clued up on politics in Scotland.
When the next referendum on Independence takes place, will it be a joint ticket of "leaving UK" + "Joining EU"?
Or will it be - get independence first, and then later on have another referendum on whether Scotland should apply to join the EU or not?
The EU could somehow bend the rules using East Germany and Czech /Slovakia as basis.
Still not the same, I agree.0 -
I think it's a quote from this well-known article:Yorkcity said:
Thanks I think many were not aware of that on here.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
-
It's nice to see that article taken out and dusted down for renewed public ridicule.Andy_JS said:
I think it's a quote from this well-known article:Yorkcity said:
Thanks I think many were not aware of that on here.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
That's what 20 years of socialist (Labour party Variety) will do to your economy!rural_voter said:
If it was separate from England, Wales would be the 5th. poorest EU country. Eastern Europe was part of the Soviet empire 25 years ago but some of the eastern countries have now overtaken Wales. They certainly have in terms of broadband speed!!HaroldO said:Speaking Of Pisa tests I can come back to my new boring section of why Wales needs to change;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-38208738
Fucking last, improving but still dead last in the UK, with a gap between the Welsh and Scotland who are the next up. And this is the primary reason for Wales having such economicsand social problems, low education levels mean firms don't set up there and the and brightest leave. Then they have an intake of the elderly who want to live in the scenic areas.
http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/good_for_business/?doc=522170 -
Well, I've had worse days. Haven't seen Spurs dominate Arsenal like that for years. A huge gap in class. Cost me a bit, mind. But who gives a toss about that? If Arsenal finish 4th I still come out ahead.0
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No, I don't have enough info from the canvass to say that - we didn't this time canvass houses previously don't know or anti or wouldn't say, and as noted the lack of a UKIP candidate will help the Tories. What seemed to be apparent was that the Labour vote from 2015 was largely unchanged, and quite motivated (likewise the Greens, irritatingly). I don't think there was any politeness involved short of Oscar-scale acting - e.g. people don't normally put up posters if they're really going to vote differently.SquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituency
But there is more of a UKIP vote than a LibDem vote, so I'd expect a net swing to the Tories there (assuming their vote is solid too), possibly balanced by better Labour ground game in Greater Nottingham. Too hard to call because of boundary changes.
Yes, it's Notts County Council. I've also canvassed another Labour seat, Beeston South - this felt reasonably secure, though it's where I'll be spending Thursday as it's the only Labour County seat in my old patch.
0 -
Spurs and Arsenal are some kind of code for Tory and Labour, right?SouthamObserver said:Well, I've had worse days. Haven't seen Spurs dominate Arsenal like that for years. A huge gap in class. Cost me a bit, mind. But who gives a toss about that? If Arsenal finish 4th I still come out ahead.
0 -
That turned out well for them.Andy_JS said:
I think it's a quote from this well-known article:Yorkcity said:
Thanks I think many were not aware of that on here.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
Someone should write a Brexiteer version:GeoffM said:
It's nice to see that article taken out and dusted down for renewed public ridicule.Andy_JS said:
I think it's a quote from this well-known article:Yorkcity said:
Thanks I think many were not aware of that on here.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
'Shortly there will be a negotiation, in which Theresa May will triumph over all of Europe'0 -
You mean 'soon to be West Midlands Mayor' Sion Simon?Sunil_Prasannan said:
You didn't appreciate my 'omage to Sion Simon?Yorkcity said:
Thanks I think many were not aware of that on here.Sunil_Prasannan said:Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservative Party will increase its majority.
Side note, I love it when politicians at lower levels try to deflect from what's happening at the national level, particularly a leader issue, because a) You can bet they won't be consistent about it, and will condemn their opponents for something that may be more relevant nationally than locally, and b) You can also bet they would never say the same thing if their leader or a national issue would be seen as an asset.0 -
Really? How curious.No_Offence_Alan said:
Shetland born? You have just lost the Orkney vote.Theuniondivvie said:Anyone fancying a punt against Carmichael in O&S might take into account the SNP candidate adopted, Miriam Brett; young, smart, presentable, Shetland born, untainted, might be the sort to turn the tables.
Tom Morton, BBC broadcaster & formerly very strong No supporter & now Yes has been positive about her.
https://twitter.com/thebeatcroft/status/858606757802803200
Only outsiders with no allegiance to either island group do well here.
Scanning wikipedia I see the MP elected in a by-electioin in 1921 was born there, but he only lasted a year (and had been unopposed).
Much praise to to Basil Neven-Spence - but for his 15 year stretch looks like the place has been some flavor of liberal since 1837. So well done the SNP for getting close, and if they take it, quite the achievement.
Lots of Dundas's and Honyman's among the early MPs - I presume family connections.0 -
Door to door tends to meet with politeness in most parts. Everyone was civil to me yesterday.IanB2 said:
Way too anecdotal given the current polls. More likely that the level of Labour presence/activity was making voters excessively polite - but dishonest - on the doorstep, than that this area has somehow completely bucked the national trend.SquareRoot said:
So what you are saying is that there is no swing in this constituencyNickPalmer said:Anecdotally from super-marginal Notts, West Bridgford North, which is a new division overlapping a former division which Labour won from the Tories by 9 votes last time: 20 of us out this afternoon on the third canvass, focusing on Labour, LibDem and uncontacted this time. It's a middle-class but not university-linked area - typically youngish couples starting to move up the ladder.
The Laboujr vote seemed to have been correctly identified and was rock-solid - too few uncontacted to have a clear impression from those. People said the Tory effort there seemed slight - one leaflet received vs three from Labour, and a small Tory canvass team. Loads of Labour posters, none for other candidates. Green vote seemed very solid too, but LibDems crumbling to Labour and UKIP presumably to Tories - no UKIP candidate at all. Some Labour unhappiness over our not being anti-Brexit enough, but after a grumble those voters all said yeah, they'd vote for us anyway. Hard to call without seeing the non-Labour vote, but the strength of the Labour machine in Nottingham may see us home.
The benefit of public presence is several fold, and important for democracy, but perhaps its significance for the politicians themselves is underestimated. The Mrs Duffy incident, and Gordons response fortold a lot that has gone on in the last 7 years. Similarly Tony Blair being given a dressing down at the hospital entrance in 2001. Ed Milibands response to the overspending question in the debates in 2015 was another unscripted turning point.
I think Theresa May is insulting the public by her hermetically sealed campaign and robotic mantras, but even more importantly she is losing out on learning from the Great British Public at one of the few times that the average Joe pays attention to politics. She could learn something. Ditto Jezza. I think Tim is an aficionado of doorstep politics.0 -
Tories are ChelseaIanB2 said:
Spurs and Arsenal are some kind of code for Tory and Labour, right?SouthamObserver said:Well, I've had worse days. Haven't seen Spurs dominate Arsenal like that for years. A huge gap in class. Cost me a bit, mind. But who gives a toss about that? If Arsenal finish 4th I still come out ahead.
In election year the colour of the govt is always the colour of the winning football team0
