politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the questio
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Interview of Tony Blair by Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer today. He makes some good points well. But I get the feeling of being in a different world now.0
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They are fishing in separate parts of the same pond. That works quite well in FPTP.chestnut said:If the LibDems get 15% then Labour will be on 25.
They are fishing in the same pond for under 50% of the vote along with Plaid, the SNP and the Greens.0 -
More heat than light this morning here. Nature's way of telling you to go out.0
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Labour are in government in Wales and are deeply unpopular. You should not assume a national swing or swing back will apply there. This election could easily be about two things in Wales: (1) Brexit, as outside the Valleys the EU is not loved and (2) sending a loud raspberry to Carwyn Jones. In both cases the Conservatives are likely to benefit. Any genuine socialists have Plaid to switch to. If anything a 9-point deficit to Labour may prove optimistic.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.0 -
Shush. Survey thinks Corbyn's past will be popular, remember....Sandpit said:
...at a time when they were trying to assassinate the Cabinet in Brighton, targeting children at McDonalds in Warrington, working men enjoying a pint in Birmingham and shoppers in Manchester.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
The IRA, Hamas, Iran and Chavez - they're going to be a massive vote winner....
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That’s nonsense, I think the average person in the UK can distinguish between the head of state, or her representatives having to receive unsavoury characters and a back bench MP choosing to associate with them.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.0 -
Incidentally, if any Tory strategists are listening, I'd suggest soft pedalling on Corbyn's friends - but pedalling enough so he has to explain his history and defend his anti-patriotic positions. Preferably whilst getting a bit angry.0
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I will be extremely surprised if the Tories lose any seats in Gloucestershire. The only potentially vulnerable one is Cheltenham and I think the Labour vote will collapse there while dividing equally between Tories, Liberal Democrats and stay at home.Sean_F said:I agree. I expect the Tories to do very well in Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, Wales, and parts of Scotland; relatively poorly in Surrey, Hampshire, Oxfordshire, Goucestershire.
Thornbury may be more vulnerable, but it seems to be ageing faster than expected. I'd guess a narrow Tory hold.0 -
Wow, that's a surprise, but good for the sport if Honda can get their act together and get their engines competitive and reliable.Morris_Dancer said:F1: seems Sauber will have Honda engines next year.
Edited extra bit: https://twitter.com/HondaRacingF1/status/8585783211599872000 -
Neither Commons nor Lords held up Brexit plans, A50 passed both quickly and easily.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
Any delay was due to poor organisation by the government, in particular in futile appeals against a very reasonable court ruling.
May wants a large majority because of internal party enemies, not the opposite benches.0 -
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.midwinter said:
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation.Sean_F said:
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.0 -
Even if the Conservatives were level-pegging in Wales, that would be a historic shift.ydoethur said:
Labour are in government in Wales and are deeply unpopular. You should not assume a national swing or swing back will apply there. This election could easily be about two things in Wales: (1) Brexit, as outside the Valleys the EU is not loved and (2) sending a loud raspberry to Carwyn Jones. In both cases the Conservatives are likely to benefit. Any genuine socialists have Plaid to switch to. If anything a 9-point deficit to Labour may prove optimistic.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.0 -
Gordon Brown could do a good speech at times to raise the faithfull.ydoethur said:
Labour are in government in Wales and are deeply unpopular. You should not assume a national swing or swing back will apply there. This election could easily be about two things in Wales: (1) Brexit, as outside the Valleys the EU is not loved and (2) sending a loud raspberry to Carwyn Jones. In both cases the Conservatives are likely to benefit. Any genuine socialists have Plaid to switch to. If anything a 9-point deficit to Labour may prove optimistic.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.0 -
I've already been out and done a 10K run with an extra four-mile walk at the end. I'm in a zen-like state of tiredness for this conversation.Jonathan said:More heat than light this morning here. Nature's way of telling you to go out.
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Mr. Sandpit, there have been murmurings about it for a while now, so I'm not that surprised. Plus, Honda throw a lot of money at McLaren, and I imagine the deal will be better financially for Sauber than their current arrangement with Ferrari.0
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I don't think she had much choice given how the Fixed Term Parliment Act works.Icarus said:I think Teresa May has made a big mistake in going for a long campaign.
In the next 6 weeks she will have to say something - people (well journalists) are already getting fed up with the 'Vote for me, a strong leader" theme.
Just repeating platitudes isn't going to work. The demand for real policies on Brexit and the economy (stupid!) will increase. Today's announcement on pensions is meaningless - there are almost no defined benefit schemes left except for government employees.0 -
Mr. Jessop, that's a lot of exercise, especially for a Sunday morning.
Was it 10 kilometres, or miles? That does make quite a bit difference (think it'd be 6.4 miles. My exercise bike uses kilometres, but I translate that into miles).0 -
Candidate selections have been rushed by all parties, so blame May for her surprise election if the next parliament is of poor quality.JosiasJessop said:
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.midwinter said:
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation.Sean_F said:
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.0 -
The Ultras are still on board...CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
https://twitter.com/johnfriary/status/8585848988017295370 -
I agree also. UNS doesn't really work; it's attraction is its simplicity and ease of use, compared to actually trying to model what is going on in 650 very different locations.Patrick said:
I agree with this. Labour's vote is going to be very inefficiently distributed.ydoethur said:
One possibility it might be worth bearing in mind is that Labour could well be hoovering up all the votes in London, Manchester, Bristol, West Yorkshire and Newcastle along with parts of Birmingham, while haemorrhaging them in marginal and semi-marginal seats elsewhere. That would be entirely in accord with Corbyn's core vote strategy.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
One result of this election, with likely startling results from Scotland and Wales, as well as diametrically opposed results in London and the North, could be the final discrediting of UNS as a model.
UNS was designed for a very different world of just two large and geographically-based parties with relatively small changes of opinion from government to opposition each time.0 -
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course. Both women have similar qualities: an ordinariness that people can relate to, a strong control tendency, an apparent lack of humour. Neither has much vision. I would say Ms Sturgeon is more aggressive however.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
Mrs May will be fine for the election and the coming parliament however.0 -
The current Sauber/Ferrari deal I didn't understand, they'll be seriously uncompetitive in the second half of the season, as everyone else develops their engines power units. Honda have put serious money into the project, they've really got to make it work now, else they're half a billion dollars in the hole and have nothing but bad publicity to show for all their troubles.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, there have been murmurings about it for a while now, so I'm not that surprised. Plus, Honda throw a lot of money at McLaren, and I imagine the deal will be better financially for Sauber than their current arrangement with Ferrari.
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1. There is literally no way that the UK can accept a foreign court acting as a guarantor of the rights of some of its residents. There can be a deal, for instance, guaranteeing they have equivalent rights but not extraterritorial judicial oversightsurbiton said:[snip]
But to get to that position, there have to be compromises which she has to make where she will lose the support of a good many Tory MPs. As many as 50, maybe even 70 depending on the profile of the new MPs, many of whom will be coming from Leave areas.
1. Rights of EU citizens and vice versa for Brits in EU: Controversy will be about jurisdiction. If "special arrangements" are to be made, there will be trouble ! However, this one will pass because Labour , Liberals and the SNP will support. So Tory rebels can sulk in the corner.
2. The wrongly titled "divorce bill". This is actually about future liabilities UK have already signed up for. These are fulfilment of contracts. One thing I know having dealt with Germans for over 30 years, is that they are very legalistic as is the EU itself. I am sure compromises can be made but we are talking about €30-40 bn. The rebellion will be bigger. If she does not get that big majority, she will be stuck.
3. The Ireland border: Everyone says it is going to be easy. But this one is the Game of Thorns and not so much about Thrones. No customs union and no border are not compatible. Otherwise, there will have to controls between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland. I cannot begin to think what the Unionist reaction will be on both sides of the Irish Sea. Gibraltar will just be a rock on the continent compared to this. Michael Howard might even launch the armada !
She needs a big majority, or else !
2. They will meet their future liabilities. The issue is the EU padding the bill with future expenditure beyond the current billing period. The lease break on the EMA is particularly irritating because it is the EU choosing to relocate (I am sure the UK would be fine for it to stay here)
3. There will be a work around0 -
The ORB data tables are of interest . They seem to be the only pollster to include NI in its figures .
For 2015 voters
Lib Dems lose 14 voters to Conservative but gain 30 from them
Lib Dems lose 13 voters to Labour but gain 29 from them
Lib Dems lose 0 voters to UKIP or SNP but gain 1 each
UKIP lose 91 voters to Con and 19 to Labour but gain 6 and 10 respectively0 -
That's nonsense. All parties should have plans in place in case of an election. If they haven't it's their own fault. The only variables are mps who stand down. I don't know if there are more this time than usualfoxinsoxuk said:
Candidate selections have been rushed by all parties, so blame May for her surprise election if the next parliament is of poor quality.JosiasJessop said:
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.midwinter said:
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation.Sean_F said:
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.0 -
On trade there will almost certainly (continue to) be European jurisdiction since we will almost certainly continue to follow European trade and standards rulings when we are outside the EU.Charles said:
1. There is literally no way that the UK can accept a foreign court acting as a guarantor of the rights of some of its residents. There can be a deal, for instance, guaranteeing they have equivalent rights but not extraterritorial judicial oversightsurbiton said:[snip]
But to get to that position, there have to be compromises which she has to make where she will lose the support of a good many Tory MPs. As many as 50, maybe even 70 depending on the profile of the new MPs, many of whom will be coming from Leave areas.
1. Rights of EU citizens and vice versa for Brits in EU: Controversy will be about jurisdiction. If "special arrangements" are to be made, there will be trouble ! However, this one will pass because Labour , Liberals and the SNP will support. So Tory rebels can sulk in the corner.
2. The wrongly titled "divorce bill". This is actually about future liabilities UK have already signed up for. These are fulfilment of contracts. One thing I know having dealt with Germans for over 30 years, is that they are very legalistic as is the EU itself. I am sure compromises can be made but we are talking about €30-40 bn. The rebellion will be bigger. If she does not get that big majority, she will be stuck.
3. The Ireland border: Everyone says it is going to be easy. But this one is the Game of Thorns and not so much about Thrones. No customs union and no border are not compatible. Otherwise, there will have to controls between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland. I cannot begin to think what the Unionist reaction will be on both sides of the Irish Sea. Gibraltar will just be a rock on the continent compared to this. Michael Howard might even launch the armada !
She needs a big majority, or else !
2. They will meet their future liabilities. The issue is the EU padding the bill with future expenditure beyond the current billing period. The lease break on the EMA is particularly irritating because it is the EU choosing to relocate (I am sure the UK would be fine for it to stay here)
3. There will be a work around
0 -
91 or 19 ?MarkSenior said:The ORB data tables are of interest . They seem to be the only pollster to include NI in its figures .
For 2015 voters
Lib Dems lose 14 voters to Conservative but gain 30 from them
Lib Dems lose 13 voters to Labour but gain 29 from them
Lib Dems lose 0 voters to UKIP or SNP but gain 1 each
UKIP lose 91 voters to Con and 19 to Labour but gain 6 and 10 respectively0 -
91surbiton said:
91 or 19 ?MarkSenior said:The ORB data tables are of interest . They seem to be the only pollster to include NI in its figures .
For 2015 voters
Lib Dems lose 14 voters to Conservative but gain 30 from them
Lib Dems lose 13 voters to Labour but gain 29 from them
Lib Dems lose 0 voters to UKIP or SNP but gain 1 each
UKIP lose 91 voters to Con and 19 to Labour but gain 6 and 10 respectively0 -
The queen isn't standing in the election - any attempt to involve her in the mud sling would work against those who do it.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.0 -
I see the fantasies continueSandpit said:
Robertson and/or Salmond losing would be up there with Balls and Reckless from a couple of years ago for champagne and popcorn moments of election night.ydoethur said:
Under those circumstances Robertson would almost certainly lose his seat too along with a significant number of other SNP MPs (which would of course be a tragic loss to national life in Scotland). Meanwhile, on the assumption that 22% of the vote has to go somewhere, it would presumably go to the Liberal Democrats.surbiton said:
If that were to happen, it will not be Farron but some SNP bloke , probably , Angus Robertson.ydoethur said:The only way Corbyn will resign instantly is if he loses his own seat. Even then, he might cite Henderson as a precedent (who stayed on as official leader for a year after 1931 while Lansbury was named Party Chairman) and try to cling on.
However, if things are so bad Labour lose Islington North, it will really, really not matter who the Labour leader is.
Would be amusing to see what Prime Minister May and Leader of the Opposition Farron said in that situation though.
The chances of this happening would seem to me to be remote. They are not nearly as remote as they should be.0 -
6.22 miles. So I did 10 miles in total before 08.00. I'm trying to walk or run 2,000 miles this year, and I should be there by the end of June.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, that's a lot of exercise, especially for a Sunday morning.
Was it 10 kilometres, or miles? That does make quite a bit difference (think it'd be 6.4 miles. My exercise bike uses kilometres, but I translate that into miles).
(End bragging).0 -
It's inevitable. Mr Gravity is bound to come calling.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
It is revealing however that no one argues 'Sturgeon's only highly rated 'coz her opponents are rubbish' unlike with May....0 -
She did not have to invite MM to Buck House for lunch. Don't give us that bullshit early on a Sunday morning.SimonStClare said:
That’s nonsense, I think the average person in the UK can distinguish between the head of state, or her representatives having to receive unsavoury characters and a back bench MP choosing to associate with them.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.0 -
Morning, Mr.D.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I'd be a bit tempted by Bottas each way for the win, problem is if he's second and Hamilton's third, I do think he'll be asked to move over.
Unlikely - I don't think Hamilton will have the race speed unless his car balance has magically improved overnight, and it's quite likely his tyres will go off sooner. More possible is that Hamilton holds up Bottas, and the pace difference won't be great enough for the team to get him to move over.
I'm also taking a look at the Bottas each way odds though.
Anyway, off to get some exercise myself.0 -
Davidson knew before the Cabinet:
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson was in her office in the Scottish parliament at about 9am on Tuesday, 18 April working on a speech for that evening when the call came through. It was Theresa May on the line to tell her, before the cabinet and two hours before the public announcement in Downing Street, that she was calling a general election for 8 June.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/29/scottish-conservatives-plot-return-brink-political-oblivion0 -
That's a really poor excuse. They don't have to look at their spouses, kids and friends for candidates.foxinsoxuk said:
Candidate selections have been rushed by all parties, so blame May for her surprise election if the next parliament is of poor quality.JosiasJessop said:
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.midwinter said:
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation.Sean_F said:
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.0 -
That's already priced in. Anybody who gives a damn, sorry, a fuck, about that already knows.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.0 -
But Labour said subsequently that they'd try to block it down the road - big mistake by Starmer.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither Commons nor Lords held up Brexit plans, A50 passed both quickly and easily.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
Any delay was due to poor organisation by the government, in particular in futile appeals against a very reasonable court ruling.
May wants a large majority because of internal party enemies, not the opposite benches.0 -
It is beginning to look the other way. Corbyn is lucky to have May as an opponent. How many Prime Ministers do you know who has gotten into a controversy whether her election meeting was a children's party or not ?CarlottaVance said:
It's inevitable. Mr Gravity is bound to come calling.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
It is revealing however that no one argues 'Sturgeon's only highly rated 'cpz her opponents are rubbish' unlike with May....0 -
In fact, Starmer has given heart to many Remainers.felix said:
But Labour said subsequently that they'd try to block it down the road - big mistake by Starmer.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither Commons nor Lords held up Brexit plans, A50 passed both quickly and easily.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
Any delay was due to poor organisation by the government, in particular in futile appeals against a very reasonable court ruling.
May wants a large majority because of internal party enemies, not the opposite benches.0 -
Do you disagree that it would be major news if they lost?malcolmg said:
I see the fantasies continueSandpit said:
Robertson and/or Salmond losing would be up there with Balls and Reckless from a couple of years ago for champagne and popcorn moments of election night.ydoethur said:
Under those circumstances Robertson would almost certainly lose his seat too along with a significant number of other SNP MPs (which would of course be a tragic loss to national life in Scotland). Meanwhile, on the assumption that 22% of the vote has to go somewhere, it would presumably go to the Liberal Democrats.surbiton said:
If that were to happen, it will not be Farron but some SNP bloke , probably , Angus Robertson.ydoethur said:The only way Corbyn will resign instantly is if he loses his own seat. Even then, he might cite Henderson as a precedent (who stayed on as official leader for a year after 1931 while Lansbury was named Party Chairman) and try to cling on.
However, if things are so bad Labour lose Islington North, it will really, really not matter who the Labour leader is.
Would be amusing to see what Prime Minister May and Leader of the Opposition Farron said in that situation though.
The chances of this happening would seem to me to be remote. They are not nearly as remote as they should be. 0 -
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
He'd stopped killing people by then and committed to a democratic process! If you really cannot see the difference...surbiton said:
She did not have to invite MM to Buck House for lunch. Don't give us that bullshit early on a Sunday morning.SimonStClare said:
That’s nonsense, I think the average person in the UK can distinguish between the head of state, or her representatives having to receive unsavoury characters and a back bench MP choosing to associate with them.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.
(And PS - Buckingham Palace was a government occasion, so she did 'have' to invite him. I think you're confusing it with a Windsor Castle banquet two years later, where she did issue a personal invitation.)0 -
It was on all the front pages.......surbiton said:
It is beginning to look the other way. Corbyn is lucky to have May as an opponent. How many Prime Ministers do you know who has gotten into a controversy whether her election meeting was a children's party or not ?CarlottaVance said:
It's inevitable. Mr Gravity is bound to come calling.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
It is revealing however that no one argues 'Sturgeon's only highly rated 'cpz her opponents are rubbish' unlike with May....0 -
In that case (1) should be OK to the EU. The issue for them isn't the jurisdiction, it's a commitment from the UK government that the EU citizens will be able to enforce in the future. If the UK government doesn't like the ECJ, it can come up with an alternative arrangement that does the same thing. (2) is a haggle, plain and simple. Pay to play. (3) Northern Ireland is a genuinely open negotiation as both sides work out what's possible.Charles said:
1. There is literally no way that the UK can accept a foreign court acting as a guarantor of the rights of some of its residents. There can be a deal, for instance, guaranteeing they have equivalent rights but not extraterritorial judicial oversightsurbiton said:[snip]
But ..[...]
1. Rights of EU citizens and vice versa for Brits in EU: Controversy will be about jurisdiction. If "special arrangements" are to be made, there will be trouble ! However, this one will pass because Labour , Liberals and the SNP will support. So Tory rebels can sulk in the corner.
2. The wrongly titled "divorce bill". This is actually about future liabilities UK have already signed up for. These are fulfilment of contracts. One thing I know having dealt with Germans for over 30 years, is that they are very legalistic as is the EU itself. I am sure compromises can be made but we are talking about €30-40 bn. The rebellion will be bigger. If she does not get that big majority, she will be stuck.
3. The Ireland border: Everyone says it is going to be easy. But this one is the Game of Thorns and not so much about Thrones. No customs union and no border are not compatible. Otherwise, there will have to controls between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland. I cannot begin to think what the Unionist reaction will be on both sides of the Irish Sea. Gibraltar will just be a rock on the continent compared to this. Michael Howard might even launch the armada !
She needs a big majority, or else !
2. They will meet their future liabilities. The issue is the EU padding the bill with future expenditure beyond the current billing period. The lease break on the EMA is particularly irritating because it is the EU choosing to relocate (I am sure the UK would be fine for it to stay here)
3. There will be a work around
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.0 -
Might as well finish the job:
In his Sunday Mirror column, Lord Prescott questioned whether the comments were compatible with the terms of Labour party membership.
“When Tony was leader, we expelled people for advocating voting for other parties. I can’t see what he is doing is any different,” he said.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/tony-blair/news/85507/john-prescott-questions-why-tony-blair0 -
Corbyn has questions to answer over his past associations, it is you who is peddling “bullshit” and you know this perfectly well.surbiton said:
She did not have to invite MM to Buck House for lunch. Don't give us that bullshit early on a Sunday morning.SimonStClare said:
That’s nonsense, I think the average person in the UK can distinguish between the head of state, or her representatives having to receive unsavoury characters and a back bench MP choosing to associate with them.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.0 -
Morning Malcolm. Granola caught in your teeth this morning?. You should try porridge with a pinch of salt and a little sugar. It's great for cholesterol too.malcolmg said:
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
Typical dictator tactics, only speaks to party stooges,CarlottaVance said:Mrs May hiding in a conference room with bussed in supporters not meeting voters yesterday:
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/areas/114483/prime-minister-launches-maidenhead-election-campaign-in-the-high-street.html#.WQR51ahvzjk.twitter
There is one 'stony faced' guy - but I reckon that's her security.0 -
OK. We are not talking percentages. But what number was UKIP starting with so that we can get a relative idea ?MarkSenior said:
91surbiton said:
91 or 19 ?MarkSenior said:The ORB data tables are of interest . They seem to be the only pollster to include NI in its figures .
For 2015 voters
Lib Dems lose 14 voters to Conservative but gain 30 from them
Lib Dems lose 13 voters to Labour but gain 29 from them
Lib Dems lose 0 voters to UKIP or SNP but gain 1 each
UKIP lose 91 voters to Con and 19 to Labour but gain 6 and 10 respectively0 -
..... half (50%) of people think that the Conservative party has been clear about its Brexit policy, compared to 31% who think they have not. By contrast, just 20% of people think Labour has been clear, with 58% thinking they haven’t been.surbiton said:
In fact, Starmer has given heart to many Remainers.felix said:
But Labour said subsequently that they'd try to block it down the road - big mistake by Starmer.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither Commons nor Lords held up Brexit plans, A50 passed both quickly and easily.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
Any delay was due to poor organisation by the government, in particular in futile appeals against a very reasonable court ruling.
May wants a large majority because of internal party enemies, not the opposite benches.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/27/are-parties-being-clear-brexit/
0 -
Good morning, Malc.malcolmg said:
Typical dictator tactics, only speaks to party stooges,CarlottaVance said:Mrs May hiding in a conference room with bussed in supporters not meeting voters yesterday:
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/areas/114483/prime-minister-launches-maidenhead-election-campaign-in-the-high-street.html#.WQR51ahvzjk.twitter
There is one 'stony faced' guy - but I reckon that's her security.0 -
We will never know.foxinsoxuk said:
Maidenhead should give her a soft reception. It sounds like all the criticism of her hyper controlling campaign of staged meetings is hitting home. The lady is for turning.CarlottaVance said:Mrs May hiding in a conference room with bussed in supporters not meeting voters yesterday:
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/areas/114483/prime-minister-launches-maidenhead-election-campaign-in-the-high-street.html#.WQR51ahvzjk.twitter
There is one 'stony faced' guy - but I reckon that's her security.
Lets see how she goes down with truly open meetings in Stoke, Hartlepool and Swansea.0 -
Wow! Only 'party stooges' shop on Maidenhead High Street......malcolmg said:
Typical dictator tactics, only speaks to party stooges,CarlottaVance said:Mrs May hiding in a conference room with bussed in supporters not meeting voters yesterday:
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/areas/114483/prime-minister-launches-maidenhead-election-campaign-in-the-high-street.html#.WQR51ahvzjk.twitter
There is one 'stony faced' guy - but I reckon that's her security.0 -
Even better without the salt and sugarSquareRoot said:
Morning Malcolm. Granola caught in your teeth this morning?. You should try porridge with a pinch of salt and a little sugar. It's great for cholesterol too.malcolmg said:
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
Quite possibly. But that is very differentIanB2 said:
On trade there will almost certainly (continue to) be European jurisdiction since we will almost certainly continue to follow European trade and standards rulings when we are outside the EU.Charles said:
1. There is literally no way that the UK can accept a foreign court acting as a guarantor of the rights of some of its residents. There can be a deal, for instance, guaranteeing they have equivalent rights but not extraterritorial judicial oversightsurbiton said:[snip]
But to get to that position, there have to be compromises which she has to make where she will lose the support of a good many Tory MPs. As many as 50, maybe even 70 depending on the profile of the new MPs, many of whom will be coming from Leave areas.
1. Rights of EU citizens and vice versa for Brits in EU: Controversy will be about jurisdiction. If "special arrangements" are to be made, there will be trouble ! However, this one will pass because Labour , Liberals and the SNP will support. So Tory rebels can sulk in the corner.
2. The wrongly titled "divorce bill". This is actually about future liabilities UK have already signed up for. These are fulfilment of contracts. One thing I know having dealt with Germans for over 30 years, is that they are very legalistic as is the EU itself. I am sure compromises can be made but we are talking about €30-40 bn. The rebellion will be bigger. If she does not get that big majority, she will be stuck.
3. The Ireland border: Everyone says it is going to be easy. But this one is the Game of Thorns and not so much about Thrones. No customs union and no border are not compatible. Otherwise, there will have to controls between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland. I cannot begin to think what the Unionist reaction will be on both sides of the Irish Sea. Gibraltar will just be a rock on the continent compared to this. Michael Howard might even launch the armada !
She needs a big majority, or else !
2. They will meet their future liabilities. The issue is the EU padding the bill with future expenditure beyond the current billing period. The lease break on the EMA is particularly irritating because it is the EU choosing to relocate (I am sure the UK would be fine for it to stay here)
3. There will be a work around0 -
It is because they are known to be lying cheating toeragsOldKingCole said:
Good question. Perhaps it’s going to be the reverse of 1983, when they flattererd to decieve. This time a lot better, seats-wise.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
(Clumsy phrase, sorry!)0 -
No, he said that Labour would not unconditionally support what May came back with. We would not want it any other way in a democracy, would we?felix said:
But Labour said subsequently that they'd try to block it down the road - big mistake by Starmer.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither Commons nor Lords held up Brexit plans, A50 passed both quickly and easily.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
Any delay was due to poor organisation by the government, in particular in futile appeals against a very reasonable court ruling.
May wants a large majority because of internal party enemies, not the opposite benches.
0 -
Corbyn favourability hits new low as election campaign startssurbiton said:
It is beginning to look the other way. Corbyn is lucky to have May as an opponent.CarlottaVance said:
It's inevitable. Mr Gravity is bound to come calling.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
It is revealing however that no one argues 'Sturgeon's only highly rated 'cpz her opponents are rubbish' unlike with May....
With the general election campaign kicking off YouGov has released its latest political favourability results. They contain good news for Theresa May and the Conservatives, but are grim reading for just about everyone else.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/corbyn-favourability-remains-rock-bottom-ahead-gen/
0 -
I'm looking forward to the Corbynites (and others) claiming she has no mandate because only 43% of the electorate voted for her on a 60% turnout.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
They might throw in kids and babies again to shrink the number still further.0 -
Last nights polling shows the Tories can't afford to rest on their laurels. They still point to a more than comfortable victory and majority, but I am not surprised we have seen some tightening. Say what you will about Corbyn, but Labour have been out and about making the headlines largely on policy over the last few days, and there's not been (yet) the kind of ridiculous gaffe from the Labour top team that we've come to expect would dominate a GE campaign with Corbyn in charge.
It is, however, a measure of our times that a projected majority of around 100 or so for Theresa May is considered a disappointment..0 -
Was this the one when the Tory - Labour gap dropped by 8 points ?CarlottaVance said:
Corbyn favourability hits new low as election campaign startssurbiton said:
It is beginning to look the other way. Corbyn is lucky to have May as an opponent.CarlottaVance said:
It's inevitable. Mr Gravity is bound to come calling.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
It is revealing however that no one argues 'Sturgeon's only highly rated 'cpz her opponents are rubbish' unlike with May....
With the general election campaign kicking off YouGov has released its latest political favourability results. They contain good news for Theresa May and the Conservatives, but are grim reading for just about everyone else.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/corbyn-favourability-remains-rock-bottom-ahead-gen/0 -
UKIP started with 209 voters finished with 123 ( 9 of whom DNV in 2015 )surbiton said:
OK. We are not talking percentages. But what number was UKIP starting with so that we can get a relative idea ?MarkSenior said:
91surbiton said:
91 or 19 ?MarkSenior said:The ORB data tables are of interest . They seem to be the only pollster to include NI in its figures .
For 2015 voters
Lib Dems lose 14 voters to Conservative but gain 30 from them
Lib Dems lose 13 voters to Labour but gain 29 from them
Lib Dems lose 0 voters to UKIP or SNP but gain 1 each
UKIP lose 91 voters to Con and 19 to Labour but gain 6 and 10 respectively
I would hope that the local elections will give some clue as to whether the voters switching to the Lib Dems are in the areas where they will benefit from and the voters they are losing are in the areas where it is of no significance .0 -
They are not picking up the youth vote.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
Whilst a lot of people in their 20s think that Brexit has stolen their future, on the ground they are not bothered enough to commit to the Lib Dems. New voters / young people are just fed up - no meaningful jobs (part-time, service economy, about to be taken by robots, or so they are told), massive inequality, failing NHS (so they believe), education which turned out not to be worth the price they paid for it (and the debt they now have), an older generation which seems to have stitched them up like a kipper (no pun intended) with triple lock.
They are either not voting, or switching to Labour because they perceive the powers that be treat Corbyn like them: no respect, no-one likes them, no-one cares...0 -
The Queen does what the government tells her to do. She has met all sides in the NI conflict. Corbyn only ever met one. Are there any photos anywhere of him attending meetings or marches with Unionists, or even with the SDLP - Labour's sister party? Nope. Corbyn wanted the IRA to win. There is absolutely no getting around that. In the same way, where are the photos of Corbyn attending rallies or meeting with pro-Israeli groups? There aren't any.surbiton said:
She did not have to invite MM to Buck House for lunch. Don't give us that bullshit early on a Sunday morning.SimonStClare said:
That’s nonsense, I think the average person in the UK can distinguish between the head of state, or her representatives having to receive unsavoury characters and a back bench MP choosing to associate with them.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
Probably thinking more along the lines of his greatest hits during the hight of the IRA mainland bombing campaign. His association with Hamas, his veneration of Venezuela and his paid appearances on Russia Today, to be honest.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.
Put all that together and it makes him a lying git and gives Labour a huge, ongoing, unsolvable credibility problem in the eyes of many voters who might otherwise be sympathetic tot he party.
0 -
Predicting 'cross over' are you?surbiton said:
Was this the one when the Tory - Labour gap dropped by 8 points ?CarlottaVance said:
Corbyn favourability hits new low as election campaign startssurbiton said:
It is beginning to look the other way. Corbyn is lucky to have May as an opponent.CarlottaVance said:
It's inevitable. Mr Gravity is bound to come calling.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
It is revealing however that no one argues 'Sturgeon's only highly rated 'cpz her opponents are rubbish' unlike with May....
With the general election campaign kicking off YouGov has released its latest political favourability results. They contain good news for Theresa May and the Conservatives, but are grim reading for just about everyone else.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/corbyn-favourability-remains-rock-bottom-ahead-gen/0 -
Difference is Sturgeon has some human qualities, and she is happy to meet the public including non SNP supporters.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course. Both women have similar qualities: an ordinariness that people can relate to, a strong control tendency, an apparent lack of humour. Neither has much vision. I would say Ms Sturgeon is more aggressive however.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
Mrs May will be fine for the election and the coming parliament however.0 -
When you dig down, the issue is much more about choice of law than choice of court. If a new mechanism is developed that essentially interprets and develops existing EU law that will sort everything out. In fact, reading between the lines of statements from both sides it seems that they both envisage something like that.FF43 said:
In that case (1) should be OK to the EU. The issue for them isn't the jurisdiction, it's a commitment from the UK government that the EU citizens will be able to enforce in the future. If the UK government doesn't like the ECJ, it can come up with an alternative arrangement that does the same thing. (2) is a haggle, plain and simple. Pay to play. (3) Northern Ireland is a genuinely open negotiation as both sides work out what's possible.Charles said:
1. There is literally no way that the UK can accept a foreign court acting as a guarantor of the rights of some of its residents. There can be a deal, for instance, guaranteeing they have equivalent rights but not extraterritorial judicial oversightsurbiton said:[snip]
But ..[...]
1. Rights of EU citizens and vice versa for Brits in EU: Controversy will be about jurisdiction. If "special arrangements" are to be made, there will be trouble ! However, this one will pass because Labour , Liberals and the SNP will support. So Tory rebels can sulk in the corner.
2. The wrongly stuck.
3. The Ireland border: Everyone says it is going to be easy. But this one is the Game of Thorns and not so much about Thrones. No customs union and no border are not compatible. Otherwise, there will have to controls between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland. I cannot begin to think what the Unionist reaction will be on both sides of the Irish Sea. Gibraltar will just be a rock on the continent compared to this. Michael Howard might even launch the armada !
She needs a big majority, or else !
2. They will meet their future liabilities. The issue is the EU padding the bill with future expenditure beyond the current billing period. The lease break on the EMA is particularly irritating because it is the EU choosing to relocate (I am sure the UK would be fine for it to stay here)
3. There will be a work around
I expect a deal. The EU has structured their negotiating strategy to encourage it, by offering just enough carrots at various points to offset against the large number of sticks. It's a clock ticking exercise, which means no-one will walk away. As long as they are in there, there will be pressure on them to keep taking. And no deal is clearly Brexit failure for Mrs May, even if she does blame the EU for it.
0 -
If Corbyn hasn't resigned by 9.00 pm on the 9th a new party will have formed from the rump of the now defunct Labour party leaving the man himself to soldier on with his small band of Momentumites. They could call themselves 'Corbynistas Under New Transitional Structure' with the acronym CUNTS0
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Baxtering the last 3 polls as follows: Con 43, Lab 31, LD 11, UKIP 7, GRN 2 gives the Tories a majority of 60.numbertwelve said:Last nights polling shows the Tories can't afford to rest on their laurels. They still point to a more than comfortable victory and majority, but I am not surprised we have seen some tightening. Say what you will about Corbyn, but Labour have been out and about making the headlines largely on policy over the last few days, and there's not been (yet) the kind of ridiculous gaffe from the Labour top team that we've come to expect would dominate a GE campaign with Corbyn in charge.
It is, however, a measure of our times that a projected majority of around 100 or so for Theresa May is considered a disappointment..
I believe the LDs will do better than that.0 -
That is because she would have those ratings regardless of opposition , May is solely due to having no opposition. The ditherer has never done a thing , just hides and hopes for the best, her luck will run out and soon.CarlottaVance said:
It's inevitable. Mr Gravity is bound to come calling.FF43 said:
The same could easily happen to Theresa May of course.CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
It is revealing however that no one argues 'Sturgeon's only highly rated 'coz her opponents are rubbish' unlike with May....0 -
The only way I see him quitting is if Labour get utterly smashed.
Bit of a quandary for Labour isn't it.
0 -
First titter of the morning.......old story in the rush of transforming Polys into Universities one centrally placed Poly in Newcastle did toy with 'Central University Newcastle upon Tyne' - until someone pointed out the perils of acronyms....Roger said:If Corbyn hasn't resigned by 9.00 pm on the 9th a new party will have formed from the rump of the now defunct Labour party leaving the man himself to soldier on with his small band of Momentumites. They could call themselves 'Corbynistas Under New Transitional Structure' with the acronym CUNTS
0 -
Don't bottle it up Joff, tell us what you really think. Your subtlety is too much for a Sunday morning!SouthamObserver said:
Put all that together and it makes him a lying git and gives Labour a huge, ongoing, unsolvable credibility problem in the eyes of many voters who might otherwise be sympathetic to the party.
Anyway, I have an organ to play - both hands and the feet. Have a good morning everyone.0 -
Ian, needs a touch of salt , but sugar is a huge NO NO.IanB2 said:
Even better without the salt and sugarSquareRoot said:
Morning Malcolm. Granola caught in your teeth this morning?. You should try porridge with a pinch of salt and a little sugar. It's great for cholesterol too.malcolmg said:
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
Morning Surbitonsurbiton said:
Good morning, Malc.malcolmg said:
Typical dictator tactics, only speaks to party stooges,CarlottaVance said:Mrs May hiding in a conference room with bussed in supporters not meeting voters yesterday:
http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/areas/114483/prime-minister-launches-maidenhead-election-campaign-in-the-high-street.html#.WQR51ahvzjk.twitter
There is one 'stony faced' guy - but I reckon that's her security.0 -
Amongst last night's polls, did we see the sun also reporting tories had an 11 point lead in Labour marginals?0
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The interpretation and tone was clear and encouraged May to act - the voters will have their say on June 10th. The Labour position on Brexit is a mess because Starmer and others take a different view to Corbyn. They would clearly try to go as close to keeping FoM as possible and while I'd have no problem with this I don't think the British people would and the endless arguments and turmoil would just continue. I'd prefer a softish Brexit but not at the price of a Corbyn government. I also believe that May needs a decent majority to be able to make the necessary concessions a deal will require.SouthamObserver said:
No, he said that Labour would not unconditionally support what May came back with. We would not want it any other way in a democracy, would we?felix said:
But Labour said subsequently that they'd try to block it down the road - big mistake by Starmer.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither Commons nor Lords held up Brexit plans, A50 passed both quickly and easily.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
Any delay was due to poor organisation by the government, in particular in futile appeals against a very reasonable court ruling.
May wants a large majority because of internal party enemies, not the opposite benches.0 -
Israel occupies the West Bank against international law as per UN resolutions. I am not aaware of Palestinians occupying Israeli land. So you expect him to show solidarity with the Oppressors ? Great !SouthamObserver said:
The Queen does what the government tells her to do. She has met all sides in the NI conflict. Corbyn only ever met one. Are there any photos anywhere of him attending meetings or marches with Unionists, or even with the SDLP - Labour's sister party? Nope. Corbyn wanted the IRA to win. There is absolutely no getting around that. In the same way, where are the photos of Corbyn attending rallies or meeting with pro-Israeli groups? There aren't any.surbiton said:
She did not have to invite MM to Buck House for lunch. Don't give us that bullshit early on a Sunday morning.SimonStClare said:
That’s nonsense, I think the average person in the UK can distinguish between the head of state, or her representatives having to receive unsavoury characters and a back bench MP choosing to associate with them.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.
Put all that together and it makes him a lying git and gives Labour a huge, ongoing, unsolvable credibility problem in the eyes of many voters who might otherwise be sympathetic tot he party.0 -
Square, It is Sunday so will be full Scottish today. You did not read my reply yesterday , sugar is a big NO in porridge. Porridge is Monday to Friday fare , sets me up for work.SquareRoot said:
Morning Malcolm. Granola caught in your teeth this morning?. You should try porridge with a pinch of salt and a little sugar. It's great for cholesterol too.malcolmg said:
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
Morning Malc - nice day for painting maybemalcolmg said:
Ian, needs a touch of salt , but sugar is a huge NO NO.IanB2 said:
Even better without the salt and sugarSquareRoot said:
Morning Malcolm. Granola caught in your teeth this morning?. You should try porridge with a pinch of salt and a little sugar. It's great for cholesterol too.malcolmg said:
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
Ha,ha.Roger said:If Corbyn hasn't resigned by 9.00 pm on the 9th a new party will have formed from the rump of the now defunct Labour party leaving the man himself to soldier on with his small band of Momentumites. They could call themselves 'Corbynistas Under New Transitional Structure' with the acronym CUNTS
There is no way on God's earth that Corbyjn will resign after the election. He will be challenged, though. It's only if he wins the subsequent leadership contest that Labour will split.
0 -
No, because that will just show that the system is even more rigged than we thought it was.Floater said:The only way I see him quitting is if Labour get utterly smashed.
Bit of a quandary for Labour isn't it.
I am not joking. That is the only possible conclusion in Corbynthink.0 -
The Mongolians flavour their tea with salt rather than sugar. I quite liked it.malcolmg said:
Ian, needs a touch of salt , but sugar is a huge NO NO.IanB2 said:
Even better without the salt and sugarSquareRoot said:
Morning Malcolm. Granola caught in your teeth this morning?. You should try porridge with a pinch of salt and a little sugar. It's great for cholesterol too.malcolmg said:
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
Dr.Fox: Many of those Welsh numbers were from the time Labour was seen 24% behind. If there was a poll today, I don't think you will see similar numbers.foxinsoxuk said:
The lefts stronger party is not collapsing. The polls are showing the range of 25-31%, which would suggest a probable drop of a couple of percent, not a collapse.Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
FWIW I think that Labour's problem in Wales, Midlands and North will be more due to a shift to DNV, and as many kippers will do the same as shift to the Tories, particularly in WWC heartlands.
Corbyn is indeed a lucky boy. He has got May as an opponent. The most wooden, anti-charismatic leader you can find. You can easily give her the Gordon Brown trophy for charisma.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
I am not a Labour supporter but I must say that party has conducted a very good campaign to date, new issues each day, Ciorbyn speaking, getting media coverage, unlike the Lib Dems. Their much critised media opartion seems pretty smooth and effective. Even the poll gap has closed and this may mean they will do much better in the locals on Thursday than forecast.
(PS We have had 3 local election Labour leaflets, the Cons 1, everybody else nil!!).
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Bit harsh saying the PB Tories are inbred JJ, but they certainly act like a herd for sure so I cannot really argue with your position.JosiasJessop said:
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.midwinter said:
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation.Sean_F said:
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.0 -
Genuinely wanting to be fair to Tim Farron but on Marr he is singularly unimpressive. Indeed I find myself drifting off to my forthcoming Canada trip0
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ExactlySandpit said:
Then Corbyn will undoubtedly think he's won, that he'd be PM if it wasn't for the evil Tory Blairites plotting against him, and will continue the purge of the non-believers.surbiton said:
What happens if Labour loses only 20 and the Liberals gain 10 ?Sandpit said:Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Which is why the defeat has to be huge, Corbyn must have no choice but to own it.
0 -
Farron on Marr: "I'm a bit of a Eurosceptic"
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!0 -
Must use the word checker, critized and operation ouch......y0
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She certainly tries that with Scottish government , it is a Tory mantra.Casino_Royale said:
I'm looking forward to the Corbynites (and others) claiming she has no mandate because only 43% of the electorate voted for her on a 60% turnout.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
They might throw in kids and babies again to shrink the number still further.0 -
30 percent won't destroy them anymore than it dd in 1983 or 2010. I'm no cheerleader for Labour. Just very disappointed in the lack of vision or anything resembling policy from the Government. It's piss poor to be honest.JosiasJessop said:
30% may still destroy them for a generation. It's not just about the number of MPs a party has: in the medium- and long-term it's about the quality of those MPs. Labour's strength has traditionally come from three areas: Scotland, Wales and, to a lesser extent, the inner cities. They've lost Scotland, and it looks as though they're losing Wales.midwinter said:
Hardly going to kill Labour though is it. There was plenty of talk earlier in the campaign about destroying them for a generation.Sean_F said:
30% is not a good score for Labour. It still points to a very heavy defeat.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
To be honest if Labour under an inept fool like Corbyn are capable of getting 30 percent its a pretty damning indictment of the Tories and Lib Dems. I doubt he will get 30 fwiw.
These are two places that their heavy-hitters have come from for decades. They'll also find it harder to speak for the entire country. No more Blair. No more Brown. No more Kinnock. No more Keir Hardie.
What's more, they're becoming insular and in-bred. Their candidates for this election are from a depressing narrow pool given their asserted belief in all types of equality. It's becoming a party where progress depends more on who you are born or married to than even the Conservatives.
There will never be a a more propitious set of circumstances for the Tories to annihilate Labour and yet the recent polling suggests that if anything Corbyn is polling roughly the same as Miliband. The Tories are reliant on UKIP switchers and Wales and particularly Scotland. To be honest Ruth should probably suggest Tessie stays away.0 -
I'm still surprised by how rapidly people have lost their post-2015 scepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls. The Tory leads certainly look large, but on the other hand the variation in the lead is far larger than it should be, which suggests there are still serious methodological problems. I didn't follow the post mortem and the changes in methodology closely, what I did read didn't inspire much confidence that the results would be accurate.
Are people convinced that the polling companies have got it right now? Are people confident that they haven't over-corrected the error they made last time?0 -
No, I expect him to show solidarity with Israelis who are continuously being attacked by fundamentalist Moslem organisations that want to drive them into the sea and introduce a medieval theocracy with its capital in Jerusalem. I'd like to see him show solidarity with the Israeli Labour party and others in Israel who are seeking to push back against the current government's damaging and short-sighted confrontationalism. The choice is not Hamas and Hezbollah or Netanyahu.surbiton said:
Israel occupies the West Bank against international law as per UN resolutions. I am not aaware of Palestinians occupying Israeli land. So you expect him to show solidarity with the Oppressors ? Great !SouthamObserver said:
The There aren't any.surbiton said:
She did not have to invite MM to Buck House for lunch. Don't give us that bullshit early on a Sunday morning.SimonStClare said:
That’sthem.surbiton said:
As I said, bring it on. The Queen's message of condolence, the Queen inviting MM to Buch House for lunch, Prince Charles meeting Gerry Adams.Sean_F said:
Corbyn was their cheerleader.surbiton said:
And, then. when he died the Queen sent a message of condolence. Mandela was a terrorist too !!!!!!!! And dare I say, before the heavy mob gets to me, so was Menachem Begin.saddened said:
.surbiton said:
What will you bring up ? Martin McGuinness was a terrorist ? Bring it on.Essexit said:
Coalition of chaos probably isn't having the desired effect, because it's not a credible threat. That said the Tories haven't really touched the IRA, Hamas, shoot-to-kill stuff yet.surbiton said:What is happening to the Labour vote ? Three in a row at 30% or above ?
A week ago we were talking about annihilation!
http://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/thequeen/the-queen-sends-message-of-condolence-to-the-widow-of-martin-mcguinness-78798
The people know that we had to talk to these people to finally achieve peace. Corbyn met them earlier.
The older generation may take it more seriously. They are not voting Labour anyway.
All these will be dredged up too. You want to talk about the past ? We can talk about the recent past.
Put all that together and it makes him a lying git and gives Labour a huge, ongoing, unsolvable credibility problem in the eyes of many voters who might otherwise be sympathetic tot he party.
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Can't help but feeling the LD 'Tory victory is enevitsble, let us hold them to account' is a poor imitation of Clegg's 'let us moderate either the Tories or Labour' - with the same result likely...0
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Not so good for the blood pressure though but very interesting fact.Fysics_Teacher said:
The Mongolians flavour their tea with salt rather than sugar. I quite liked it.malcolmg said:
Ian, needs a touch of salt , but sugar is a huge NO NO.IanB2 said:
Even better without the salt and sugarSquareRoot said:
Morning Malcolm. Granola caught in your teeth this morning?. You should try porridge with a pinch of salt and a little sugar. It's great for cholesterol too.malcolmg said:
You must have been at your local hospital meeting people not very well, sounds like some very sick and delusional people you were talking to.Mortimer said:
Go out and talk to the people - she is popular in a way that I have never seen in British politics. Was talking to 7 others on a packed commuter train the other day. All said they'd voted Labour at some point in the past, mix of Leave/Remain, yet all saw Mrs May as a politician who gets on, does what she has said she will, and doesn't let the forces against democracy get in her way.surbiton said:
charisma.foxinsoxuk said:Patrick said:
The right is unsplitting in a big way. The left's stronger party is collapsing - and is resplitting. In a FPTP system the effect will be major.foxinsoxuk said:
Current polling does not show a rout in Labour support.Gadfly said:Why have Farron's party not benefited from the rout in Labour support?
Membership has apparently risen and their polling has improved, but I would have expected them to achieve far more given the collapse in Labour support.
What it does show is a rout of UKIP going to Tories.
They all laughed at Corbyn. Laughed. Private sector workers clearly think he is a danger to the nation.
Yet, conversely, my girlfriend's FB feed is full of lefties talking about BBC bias and that everyone where they work (NHS) is voting Labour.
If this Labour campaign isn't a 30% strategy in the trendy cities, but a 15% strategy elsewhere, I don't know what is.0 -
Even if they get rid of the hard left leadership this time, they will only be a step away from doing it again.logical_song said:
It was all so unnecessary.freetochoose said:
Corbyn doesn't want to be in govt, he's been a state sponsored protester for decades. The thing with these lefties is they KNOW they are right, that anybody who disagrees is an uncaring, capitalist fascist. He won't resign, he'll need to be thrown out and I've no idea how that happens.Sandpit said:Morning all. Wouldn't it be rather amusing if he didn't quit? Rather amusing that is, except for anyone who wants to see a strong Labour Party, good opposition to the government and 1970s communists, antisemites and terrorist sympathisers eradicated from modern politics.
Which is why the defeat has to be utter and total, Labour need to lose half their MPs to wake up those who bankroll the party and want to be in government
Margaret Beckett: I was moron to nominate Jeremy Corbyn
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33625612
Remember Ken Livingstone piggy backed off someone else to get control of GLC after an election.
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Fair enough. We agree that in a democracy it is not a big mistake for an opposition to make clear that it might may oppose the government.felix said:
The interpretation and tone was clear and encouraged May to act - the voters will have their say on June 10th. The Labour position on Brexit is a mess because Starmer and others take a different view to Corbyn. They would clearly try to go as close to keeping FoM as possible and while I'd have no problem with this I don't think the British people would and the endless arguments and turmoil would just continue. I'd prefer a softish Brexit but not at the price of a Corbyn government. I also believe that May needs a decent majority to be able to make the necessary concessions a deal will require.SouthamObserver said:
No, he said that Labour would not unconditionally support what May came back with. We would not want it any other way in a democracy, would we?felix said:
But Labour said subsequently that they'd try to block it down the road - big mistake by Starmer.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither Commons nor Lords held up Brexit plans, A50 passed both quickly and easily.MarqueeMark said:Come election day, the Tories will have a result somewhere in the forties. Labour will be somewhere in the twenties. Wherever they each end up within that band, Theresa May will be Prime Minister with a majority somewhere between very handy and troublingly large. Enough to get to deliver our leaving the EU, without worrying about game-playing by those who STILL want to overturn the Referendum result. Job done.
There is absolutely no incentive for the Tories to kill off Labour whilst Corbyn (and whoever his successor might be) are still incoherent on the economy.
Any delay was due to poor organisation by the government, in particular in futile appeals against a very reasonable court ruling.
May wants a large majority because of internal party enemies, not the opposite benches.
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Ugh, I'm going to throw up. What is it with party followers and their leaders?Scott_P said:
The Ultras are still on board...CarlottaVance said:Going back to the impact of leader's ratings and their impact on party performance:
Sturgeon Net 'doing well' (ex-DK)
Pre GE 2015: +60
Pre GE 2017: +2
An absolute positive is still very good compared to most of her peers - but it's been quite a drop.
https://twitter.com/johnfriary/status/8585848988017295370
