politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEA
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A failure by the SNP to meet expectations in next week's local elections might well lead to a further slide in their poll ratings to the advantage of all the pro - Union parties.0
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Time to trot this out again:Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, only if you divorce the word 'fascist' from its historical orgins. To take the most obvious point, one of the absolute key features of fascism was military triumphalism and the militarisation of youth - all those rallies with rows of clean-cut youths and pretty girls in uniform saluting the Great Leader. There's none of that sort of thing in Le Pen, is there? Also fascism was partly about co-operation between corrupt big business and the authoritarian state. Again, little sign of that in Le Pen.JackW said:Mike Smithson is absolutely correct about Le Pen.
Marine Le Pen waddles and quacks like a fascist and the fact that she is microscopically less odious than her father is little consolation.
Of course, if the word 'fascist' is reduced to just meaning odious, then, yes, it's a fair description.
http://www.orwell.ru/library/articles/As_I_Please/english/efasc0 -
Didn't most Leavers asked not say "le Pen"?AlastairMeeks said:Neither the polling, nor the site's Leavers' reaction to it, comes as a surprise. Who would have thought that those susceptible to xenophobic lies would hope that a close ally would be led by a fascist?
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Not an uncommon characteristic in all sorts of elections & referendums.david_herdson said:But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.
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In the EU the acquis communautaire is supreme. This body of EU law trumps all the legislatures of all of the member states, which includes the UK Parliament. In other words it is sovereign over all of them.Bromptonaut said:
Parliament was always sovereign - it just didn't feel like it, as the Government White Paper on Brexit said.Disraeli said:
WHAT!williamglenn said:
One big difference is that independence involves a transfer of sovereignty but Brexit does not. Most of the decisions are much more tangible and immediate.kle4 said:
Not fantastically strong, but not nothing, and I'd hope we'd seek to be as reasonable as possible without disadvantaging ourselves too much.Pulpstar said:A question for the leavers.
Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.
How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.
The whole point of Brexit is to transfer sovereignty back to Britain that had been acquired by the EU through our membership.
Of course you actually know that, but you are just trying to be cute.0 -
Christ on a bike.
I notice there is no byline on this header, can't think why not!
Most people I am sure voted Leave, or Trump and will vote Le Pen, not because they are fascists, or even have any sympathy for fascists, or for that matter vulgar New York limousine liberals, but because they are sick to the back teeth of being told the "right" way to vote by the establishment.0 -
It would be interesting to see. I very much doubt it myself - I had dinner last night with a couple of (British) people who expressed the view that a Le Pen win might be in Britain's interests but also expressed the fervent hope she'd lose. That's anecdotal of course, and no doubt there would be a correlation, but 0.95+ is really strong and I can't see it.Pulpstar said:
The r^2 correlation on those two questions would be 0.95+prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want.0 -
Looking on the positive side - it makes me realise that in the UK we are actually quite fortunate with our Conservative party. I don't like them - but they're not in the same league as FN or the Republican party in the US... Right wing parties that are close or have obtained power.AlastairMeeks said:Neither the polling, nor the site's Leavers' reaction to it, comes as a surprise. Who would have thought that those susceptible to xenophobic lies would hope that a close ally would be led by a fascist?
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It's difficult to gauge expectations due to the STV system - SLAB likely to lose control of Glasgow - should the SNP gain control that'd be a good measure of how their doing.justin124 said:A failure by the SNP to meet expectations in next week's local elections might well lead to a further slide in their poll ratings to the advantage of all the pro - Union parties.
SNP, SCON, SLID and the Greens should all make quite decent gains - SLAB are facing yet another electoral nightmare but the STV system will help save their blushes to an extent.0 -
The excuse that an office junior sent them out was used in Bristol last May.GeoffM said:
What 'infamous Referendum'?PClipp said:
Indeed - as was the question in the infamous Referendum.GeoffM said:
The problem here is that the original question is so poor that someone answering the poll (including me, in this case) will project a variety of reasons on to my answer.MTimT said:And you are blindingly wrong. It is a terrible question as it is open to totally different interpretations as to what is 'better'. Thus different people are answering different questions and you are comparing apples with oranges, something in all other contexts you would be railing against.
You are simply wrong.
Then Mike comes along and overlays my prejudices with his own and pulls out a single interpretation of the original (poor) question.
The Anschluss referendum voting paper was by far my favourite:
https://austria-forum.org/attach/AEIOU/Anschluss/Bilder_zum_Anschluss/scaled-368x270-Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3616398/Is-hint-Outrage-council-s-EU-referendum-voting-guide-shows-pencil-cross-box-Remain.html0 -
Oh come on, it's a self evident statement of fact that the process of leaving the EU would be made easier if the French were doing it too. So if you asked me the narrow question of which is best for Britain then I'd pick her. But I'll celebrate when she loses because I couldn't ever support the FN.AlastairMeeks said:Neither the polling, nor the site's Leavers' reaction to it, comes as a surprise. Who would have thought that those susceptible to xenophobic lies would hope that a close ally would be led by a fascist?
In any case, unsurprisingly, most "leavers" said "don't care" or "that's their business".0 -
Proof?Pulpstar said:
The r^2 correlation on those two questions would be 0.95+prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want.0 -
First there was just LGB then LGBT then LGBTQ now according to the Greens theres LGBTQA+
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/28/general-election-2017-ukip-campaign-paul-nuttall-politics-live0 -
Was it just days ago that the Yoons were framing the TNS Kantar as the gold standard against which all other indy polls must be judged?calum said:
57-43 last YouGov!CarlottaVance said:Momentum is Everything!
The Trend is Your Friend!
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/857923436194222081
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/857904445409120257
'Surge for Yes'0 -
Another tedious thread of BrExit finger point and wild accusations and generalisations from Meeks & Co, life is frankly too short, I think I will go and watch a film.0
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sorry it should read LGBTIQA+marke09 said:First there was just LGB then LGBT then LGBTQ now according to the Greens theres LGBTQA+
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/28/general-election-2017-ukip-campaign-paul-nuttall-politics-live0 -
Shall we run a poll asking... Do you want what's best for Britain?prh47bridge said:
Proof?Pulpstar said:
The r^2 correlation on those two questions would be 0.95+prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want.0 -
They should just rename it as QWERTY...as in QWERTY keyboard...or ASCII... containing all letters and characters...job donemarke09 said:First there was just LGB then LGBT then LGBTQ now according to the Greens theres LGBTQA+
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/28/general-election-2017-ukip-campaign-paul-nuttall-politics-live0 -
Her dad both was and is. No idea about the current leader, who is as much a 'leader' as Medvedev was ever president of Russia.logical_song said:
Was her dad a fascist? Is the current leader of FN a fascist?david_herdson said:
Hard to say. Someone ought to ask her "when did you stop being a fascist?".KentRising said:*Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.
Probably, no, she's not. She's more of a populist-nationalist. But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.0 -
Hopefully Yougov can run the question "Who do you want to win the presidency" to test my the theory.prh47bridge said:
Proof?Pulpstar said:
The r^2 correlation on those two questions would be 0.95+prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want.0 -
I voted Remain.AlastairMeeks said:Neither the polling, nor the site's Leavers' reaction to it, comes as a surprise. Who would have thought that those susceptible to xenophobic lies would hope that a close ally would be led by a fascist?
I do not agree that saying Le Pen would be best for Britain is the same as hoping that France would be led by her. As I said previously, I think she may be the best option for Britain as we negotiate Brexit but I fervently hope she loses, preferably by a huge margin.
And, as others have pointed out, most Leave voters appear to be don't knows. So how are they Le Pen supporters.0 -
Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf0 -
Hmm so you are trying to stick it to "the man" (who he?) and so vote for a fascist? Is that how stupid you really think people are?AlsoIndigo said:Christ on a bike.
I notice there is no byline on this header, can't think why not!
Most people I am sure voted Leave, or Trump and will vote Le Pen, not because they are fascists, or even have any sympathy for fascists, or for that matter vulgar New York limousine liberals, but because they are sick to the back teeth of being told the "right" way to vote by the establishment.0 -
You Intersex-ist...marke09 said:
sorry it should read LGBTIQA+marke09 said:First there was just LGB then LGBT then LGBTQ now according to the Greens theres LGBTQA+
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/28/general-election-2017-ukip-campaign-paul-nuttall-politics-live0 -
Both are bad news for Britain in terms of Brexit but for different reasons...
Macron will try and spur the EU on to give us a non-sensible deal and make us "pay" for voting to Leave.
A Le Pen victory would be an existential crisis so great for the EU that Brexit would fall by the wayside... They'd have bigger fish to fry than us.
Marcon would obviously be better overall as he isn't a racist and (probably) won't crash the French economy so if I had a vote I'd go for Macron.0 -
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf0 -
I reckon some of the big hitters for Le Pen must be big time Trump backers, hoping to septuple up.......0
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Of course people would answer Yes to that. However, try a poll asking Do you want what's best for Britain at any cost? I doubt that would produce anything like a unanimous Yes.rkrkrk said:
Shall we run a poll asking... Do you want what's best for Britain?prh47bridge said:
Proof?Pulpstar said:
The r^2 correlation on those two questions would be 0.95+prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want.0 -
How offensive to those people identifying as allosexual, aromatic, demisexual, or greysexual - they have all just been lumped in under a plus sign! Backwards troglodyte Green Party.marke09 said:
sorry it should read LGBTIQA+marke09 said:First there was just LGB then LGBT then LGBTQ now according to the Greens theres LGBTQA+
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/28/general-election-2017-ukip-campaign-paul-nuttall-politics-live
But seriously, it's ridiculous to add all these extra letters and then stick a plus sign at the end. Either commit to it entirely, or just stick a plus sign after LGBT and be done with it.
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You realise that is probably bad news for the SNP right ?Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf0 -
Leader's ratings - all of them have taken a hit but Davidson enjoys the strongest rating and has the happiest supporters
net 'well' (vs March) [among own VI]
Sturgeon: +2 (-14) [+60]
Davidson: +7 (-14) [+83]
Dugdale: -29 (-13) [ -3]
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Is the consensus view that Putin himself counts as a fascist? If anything this new wave of populism is all about emulating Putin's rule of Russia as much as possible. Yet you rarely hear Putin himself referred to as a fascist.david_herdson said:
Her dad both was and is. No idea about the current leader, who is as much a 'leader' as Medvedev was ever president of Russia.logical_song said:
Was her dad a fascist? Is the current leader of FN a fascist?david_herdson said:
Hard to say. Someone ought to ask her "when did you stop being a fascist?".KentRising said:*Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.
Probably, no, she's not. She's more of a populist-nationalist. But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.0 -
It's a bit like using "racist". The words have no specific meaning any longer - they've been bastardised and diluted as a result of being thrown around as a generic insult.Paristonda said:
Is the consensus view that Putin himself counts as a fascist? If anything this new wave of populism is all about emulating Putin's rule of Russia as much as possible. Yet you rarely hear Putin himself referred to as a fascist.david_herdson said:
Her dad both was and is. No idea about the current leader, who is as much a 'leader' as Medvedev was ever president of Russia.logical_song said:
Was her dad a fascist? Is the current leader of FN a fascist?david_herdson said:
Hard to say. Someone ought to ask her "when did you stop being a fascist?".KentRising said:*Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.
Probably, no, she's not. She's more of a populist-nationalist. But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.0 -
What's a figure for the 'vast majority' of 650.
Nuttall insists that Ukip candidates will be standing in the “vast majority” of seats.0 -
I was wrong and I'm surprised he stood aside shortly after I posted. That damages Le Pen. It suggests she makes crap appointments that have to be reversed.williamglenn said:
Last night Cyan was saying Le Pen was playing Macron like a fiddle over the appointment of the new FN leader. This morning he stood aside - http://www.politico.eu/article/national-front-would-be-leader-steps-aside-after-gas-chamber-comments/Pulpstar said:
What does cashout say on your Betfair screen though.Cyan said:
I agree with them too. If a politician's wife can't trust him, why should the country?kle4 said:
I bet they wouldn't give a crap about such a thing in France though.justin124 said:
I agree with those Tories there who have no wish to be represented by an adulterer.CarlottaVance said:Nest of singing birds vipers:
https://order-order.com/2017/04/28/lopresti-calls-cops-on-tories-trying-to-deselect-him/
Hard to imagine what the equivalent of a Tory would be in France. OK there are some Poujadist types, but where are the gentlemen's clubs or the private schools? One of the Grande Ecoles spawns quite a few "Islington" types who many Tories would cross the road to avoid.
The Vel d'Hiv thing didn't: I think her opponents may have looked disingenuous on it. That's even if France, which was one of several countries where local officials helped round up Jews to be murdered by the Nazis, was the only country where they did it on unoccupied territory.
Le Pen needs to paint Macron as the pro-German candidate: pro-Germany now, pro-the EU understood as run by Germany, pro-Merkel. So Macron is doing well to stick the "German" label on her, a different label but one that still says "Germany", in relation to Jalkh's gas-chamber questioning nearly 20 years ago. Thus a present-day issue on which he's weak is getting obscured.
Macron trying to stick the OAS label on her is interesting. He's trying to keep the backing he has among Fillon supporters. He's saying "I'm like De Gaulle; Le Pen is like the OAS". The Fifth Republic came into existence because De Gaulle was considered to be the only guy who could prevent civil war.
@Pulpstar - Thanks for your advice. I replied but through Vanilla so it went on the other thread. I'm not at +20 Le Pen, -1 Macron. I'm at +1 unit Le Pen, and minus two-thirds of a unit Macron, where two-thirds of a unit is the maximum I'm willing to lose. I will get walloped if Macron wins. But I still think Le Pen has got a good chance.
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/get-rich-quick-if-bookies-are-wrong-on-corbyn-wipeout-906pfnn5b?
"Get rich quick if bookies are wrong on Corbyn wipeout"
Just place an acca bet on these labour constituencies!
Jeez.
Andrew Norfolk - if you're lurking - you need another job.
And the Times want people to pay money to read this shite?0 -
Wikipedia defines fascism as:
Fascism /ˈfæʃɪzəm/ is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism[1][2], characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and control of industry and commerce[3], that came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.
I'd score MLP as:
Radical - yes
Authoritarian - no
Nationalist - yes
Dictatorial - no
Violent - no
Control of industry - yes
(No doubt her most serious detractors will assume that the violence, authoritarianism and dictatorship are waiting in the wings).
So I'd summarise her as an ethnically diversive, economically controlling, softy bitch. A bit like Diane Abbot. The Horseshoe Theory being basically correct:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory0 -
Some info on the 'current' leader (well he was current for a while).david_herdson said:
Her dad both was and is. No idea about the current leader, who is as much a 'leader' as Medvedev was ever president of Russia.logical_song said:
Was her dad a fascist? Is the current leader of FN a fascist?david_herdson said:
Hard to say. Someone ought to ask her "when did you stop being a fascist?".KentRising said:*Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.
Probably, no, she's not. She's more of a populist-nationalist. But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.
National Front would-be leader steps aside after gas chamber comments
Jean-François Jalkh reportedly said it was impossible for Zyklon B to have been used in mass exterminations.
http://www.politico.eu/article/national-front-would-be-leader-steps-aside-after-gas-chamber-comments/0 -
Military triumphalism, checkRichard_Nabavi said:
Well, only if you divorce the word 'fascist' from its historical orgins. To take the most obvious point, one of the absolute key features of fascism was military triumphalism and the militarisation of youth - all those rallies with rows of clean-cut youths and pretty girls in uniform saluting the Great Leader. There's none of that sort of thing in Le Pen, is there? Also fascism was partly about co-operation between corrupt big business and the authoritarian state. Again, little sign of that in Le Pen.JackW said:Mike Smithson is absolutely correct about Le Pen.
Marine Le Pen waddles and quacks like a fascist and the fact that she is microscopically less odious than her father is little consolation.
Of course, if the word 'fascist' is reduced to just meaning odious, then, yes, it's a fair description.
Sweetheart deals with select big business, check
I'm not thinking of Le Pen, I'm thinking of...0 -
Blairrcs1000 said:
Military triumphalism, checkRichard_Nabavi said:
Well, only if you divorce the word 'fascist' from its historical orgins. To take the most obvious point, one of the absolute key features of fascism was military triumphalism and the militarisation of youth - all those rallies with rows of clean-cut youths and pretty girls in uniform saluting the Great Leader. There's none of that sort of thing in Le Pen, is there? Also fascism was partly about co-operation between corrupt big business and the authoritarian state. Again, little sign of that in Le Pen.JackW said:Mike Smithson is absolutely correct about Le Pen.
Marine Le Pen waddles and quacks like a fascist and the fact that she is microscopically less odious than her father is little consolation.
Of course, if the word 'fascist' is reduced to just meaning odious, then, yes, it's a fair description.
Sweetheart deals with select big business, check
I'm not thinking of Le Pen, I'm thinking of...0 -
None of the recent polls have been good for SNP.Pulpstar said:
You realise that is probably bad news for the SNP right ?Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf0 -
Trumphalism?rcs1000 said:
Military triumphalism, checkRichard_Nabavi said:
Well, only if you divorce the word 'fascist' from its historical orgins. To take the most obvious point, one of the absolute key features of fascism was military triumphalism and the militarisation of youth - all those rallies with rows of clean-cut youths and pretty girls in uniform saluting the Great Leader. There's none of that sort of thing in Le Pen, is there? Also fascism was partly about co-operation between corrupt big business and the authoritarian state. Again, little sign of that in Le Pen.JackW said:Mike Smithson is absolutely correct about Le Pen.
Marine Le Pen waddles and quacks like a fascist and the fact that she is microscopically less odious than her father is little consolation.
Of course, if the word 'fascist' is reduced to just meaning odious, then, yes, it's a fair description.
Sweetheart deals with select big business, check
I'm not thinking of Le Pen, I'm thinking of...0 -
He certainly fits the description given by Richard Nabavi earlier. Yesterday Alexey Navalny was attacked on the street yet again. This is an example of a performance at a youth rally outside the Kremlin in front of a banner saying 'To the future with Putin':Paristonda said:
Is the consensus view that Putin himself counts as a fascist? If anything this new wave of populism is all about emulating Putin's rule of Russia as much as possible. Yet you rarely hear Putin himself referred to as a fascist.david_herdson said:
Her dad both was and is. No idea about the current leader, who is as much a 'leader' as Medvedev was ever president of Russia.logical_song said:
Was her dad a fascist? Is the current leader of FN a fascist?david_herdson said:
Hard to say. Someone ought to ask her "when did you stop being a fascist?".KentRising said:*Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.
Probably, no, she's not. She's more of a populist-nationalist. But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.
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But apparently anything is fair if it can potentially delegitimise Leave's victory.prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want. I detest Marine Le Pen and would never vote for her in a million years. If asked which is better for France or which I want would go for Macron every time. But Macron is a Europhile who wants to take a hard line over Brexit including possibly revising the Le Touquet agreement which he sees as unfair to France. Le Pen on the other hand is a strong supporter of Brexit and appears to want a good deal for the UK. Given their respective positions there is certainly a case to be made that Le Pen would be better for Britain. If I'd been asked I might have said that she was. But that doesn't mean I want her. I don't. Indeed, if I did say that I thought Le Pen was better for Britain, I would regard it as seriously libellous if someone said that meant I wanted her. I want the best deal for Britain but not at any cost. And Le Pen as president of France is far too high a cost.0 -
The correlation between voting Yes and voting SNP is very strong, but not complete. They receive (I presume) additional votes from those who subscribe to the "best at standing up for Scotland at Westminster" proposition, the "best progressive party available" vote, and from anti-Tory die-hards.Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf
Obviously if voters whose primary motivation for backing the SNP isn't independence decide that they prefer a different offer, they can desert whilst continuing to maintain a belief that secession is a good idea.0 -
Well it is difficult for any party to go forwards after getting 50+% of the vote in the election just gone.Alistair said:
None of the recent polls have been good for SNP.Pulpstar said:
You realise that is probably bad news for the SNP right ?Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf
Not even Baldwin managed that trick, perhaps an inevitable decline.
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But it is Good For Yes!Pulpstar said:
You realise that is probably bad news for the SNP right ?Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf
.... oh, my coat?0 -
Putin with his very close ties to industry, the security services, and organised crime is a much better fit for modern fascism.Paristonda said:Is the consensus view that Putin himself counts as a fascist? If anything this new wave of populism is all about emulating Putin's rule of Russia as much as possible. Yet you rarely hear Putin himself referred to as a fascist.
Only last year Putin took almost direct control of the MVD internal security forces, more or less dropping their criminal investigation purpose*, naming the new organisation the National Guard. Now he intends to consolidate control of the FSB, SVR and other organisations under the umbrella of a new Ministry of State Security (MGB).
Putin will have an immense security apparatus under his direct control, without any rivals in their chain of command.
* Technically this still exists, but effectively without the necessary officers to enforce federal law.0 -
37%, apparently.logical_song said:What's a figure for the 'vast majority' of 650.
Nuttall insists that Ukip candidates will be standing in the “vast majority” of seats.0 -
https://twitter.com/SerenaCCross/status/857728950130364420Paristonda said:
How offensive to those people identifying as allosexual, aromatic, demisexual, or greysexual - they have all just been lumped in under a plus sign! Backwards troglodyte Green Party.marke09 said:
sorry it should read LGBTIQA+marke09 said:First there was just LGB then LGBT then LGBTQ now according to the Greens theres LGBTQA+
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/28/general-election-2017-ukip-campaign-paul-nuttall-politics-live
But seriously, it's ridiculous to add all these extra letters and then stick a plus sign at the end. Either commit to it entirely, or just stick a plus sign after LGBT and be done with it.0 -
Macron is trying to box Le Pen in.Cyan said:Macron trying to stick the OAS label on her is interesting. He's trying to keep the backing he has among Fillon supporters. He's saying "I'm like De Gaulle; Le Pen is like the OAS". The Fifth Republic came into existence because De Gaulle was considered to be the only guy who could prevent civil war.
And the strange thing is...most Jews in France are of North African origin, and at the time of the Algerian war of independence most of their families supported French rule. More supported or joined the OAS than backed Algerian independence or De Gaulle.
0 -
More than 8 out of 10 of the Leave cats who expressed a preference are rooting for the fascist.ThreeQuidder said:
But apparently anything is fair if it can potentially delegitimise Leave's victory.prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want. I detest Marine Le Pen and would never vote for her in a million years. If asked which is better for France or which I want would go for Macron every time. But Macron is a Europhile who wants to take a hard line over Brexit including possibly revising the Le Touquet agreement which he sees as unfair to France. Le Pen on the other hand is a strong supporter of Brexit and appears to want a good deal for the UK. Given their respective positions there is certainly a case to be made that Le Pen would be better for Britain. If I'd been asked I might have said that she was. But that doesn't mean I want her. I don't. Indeed, if I did say that I thought Le Pen was better for Britain, I would regard it as seriously libellous if someone said that meant I wanted her. I want the best deal for Britain but not at any cost. And Le Pen as president of France is far too high a cost.
More than 8 out of 10 of the Remain cats who expressed a preference are rooting for the metropolitan elitist.
There is no reason to assume that Leavers and Remainers understood the question differently, merely that Remainers saw it as worse to have a fascist neighbour while Leavers didn't see that as a dealbreaker.
It's entirely reasonable to conclude that the Leavers are altogether more comfortable with fascism taking hold of one of our closest neighbours.0 -
Far be it from me to rain on the Nats parade, but there's little evidence that support for independence has moved in 3 years. There is growing evidence that SNP support is declining - accompanied by a declining leader's rating:Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf
Sturgeon Net well (ex DK):
Feb 15: +49
Mar 15: +46
Apr 15: +50
May 15: +60
Sep 15: +41
Oct 15: +40
Feb 16: +40
Mar 16: +32
Apr 16: +32
May 16: +33
Jul 16: +37
Aug 16: +24
Nov 16: +12
Mar 17: +17
Apr 17: +2
It's been a great run - but, inevitably, Mr Gravity has come calling.....
0 -
Is this a long winded way of saying the bad guys won?AlastairMeeks said:
More than 8 out of 10 of the Leave cats who expressed a preference are rooting for the fascist.ThreeQuidder said:
But apparently anything is fair if it can potentially delegitimise Leave's victory.prh47bridge said:I agree with ThreeQuidder.
Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want. I detest Marine Le Pen and would never vote for her in a million years. If asked which is better for France or which I want would go for Macron every time. But Macron is a Europhile who wants to take a hard line over Brexit including possibly revising the Le Touquet agreement which he sees as unfair to France. Le Pen on the other hand is a strong supporter of Brexit and appears to want a good deal for the UK. Given their respective positions there is certainly a case to be made that Le Pen would be better for Britain. If I'd been asked I might have said that she was. But that doesn't mean I want her. I don't. Indeed, if I did say that I thought Le Pen was better for Britain, I would regard it as seriously libellous if someone said that meant I wanted her. I want the best deal for Britain but not at any cost. And Le Pen as president of France is far too high a cost.
More than 8 out of 10 of the Remain cats who expressed a preference are rooting for the metropolitan elitist.
There is no reason to assume that Leavers and Remainers understood the question differently, merely that Remainers saw it as worse to have a fascist neighbour while Leavers didn't see that as a dealbreaker.
It's entirely reasonable to conclude that the Leavers are altogether more comfortable with fascism taking hold of one of our closest neighbours.
0 -
@AlsoIndigo Do we get a film recommendation, please?AlsoIndigo said:Another tedious thread of BrExit finger point and wild accusations and generalisations from Meeks & Co, life is frankly too short, I think I will go and watch a film.
0 -
MOEcalum said:
57-43 last YouGov!CarlottaVance said:Momentum is Everything!
The Trend is Your Friend!
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/857923436194222081
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/8579044454091202570 -
-
Haven't you been paying attention?Pulpstar said:
You realise that is probably bad news for the SNP right ?Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf
Nothing is EVER bad news for the SNP!
Leader's 'doing well' rating dropping by 58 points - a rounding error!0 -
It's entirely reasonable to conclude that the Leavers are altogether more comfortable with fascism taking hold of one of our closest neighbours.
Or (see my post) MLP only ticks three of the 6 fascist boxes. Same as Diane Abbot - and is, despite your constant repetition, not actually a fascist. Just someone whose politics you dislike. Presumably you think Farage is a fascist too. Whereas I think he's way more honourable than, say, Corbyn or Cameron. His politics ain't for everyone but he's been refeshingly honest about what they are.
0 -
That's incorrect.MikeSmithson said:
Bollocks. Read the whole headline.ThreeQuidder said:Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".
Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
You could say "those Leave voters that expressed an opinion" wanted MLP.
A clear majority didn't give a view0 -
Laughable.Scott_P said:0 -
I can't honestly believe Michael Thrasher has put his name to that article.0
-
It will do for May too, but not yet.CarlottaVance said:
Far be it from me to rain on the Nats parade, but there's little evidence that support for independence has moved in 3 years. There is growing evidence that SNP support is declining - accompanied by a declining leader's rating:Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf
Sturgeon Net well (ex DK):
Feb 15: +49
Mar 15: +46
Apr 15: +50
May 15: +60
Sep 15: +41
Oct 15: +40
Feb 16: +40
Mar 16: +32
Apr 16: +32
May 16: +33
Jul 16: +37
Aug 16: +24
Nov 16: +12
Mar 17: +17
Apr 17: +2
It's been a great run - but, inevitably, Mr Gravity has come calling.....0 -
"The Crown Prosecution Service will announce its decision during the campaign."Pulpstar said:
Laughable.Scott_P said:
Thrasher seems certain the CPS will announce all this during the campaign. I thought we established that this is far from certain, the cut off date for one of the earliest cases is after the GE, let alone all the others.0 -
Oh Wikipedia! One could say Hitler wasn't a fascist. He didn't call himself one. There are different strands. The OAS was formed in Spain. The whole Algerian experience is crucial to understanding the divisions in France today. German, Spanish and Catholic fascisms all fed into it.Patrick said:Wikipedia defines fascism as:
Fascism /ˈfæʃɪzəm/ is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism[1][2], characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and control of industry and commerce[3], that came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.
I'd score MLP as:
Radical - yes
Authoritarian - no
Nationalist - yes
Dictatorial - no
Violent - no
Control of industry - yes
(No doubt her most serious detractors will assume that the violence, authoritarianism and dictatorship are waiting in the wings).
So I'd summarise her as an ethnically diversive, economically controlling, softy bitch. A bit like Diane Abbot. The Horseshoe Theory being basically correct:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory
A lot of violence - civil war - could well be around the corner in France. While the NF don't go around smashing up their opponents' meetings, they are certainly playing on a recognition of that possibility and it is clear that they would take a side in it.
As for the horseshoe theory, well sometimes it's applicable, and we all know Stalin was as bad as Hitler, and so would Trotsky have been if he'd had the chance. But if you're sitting in a football stadium in Chile, having been rounded up by far-right totalitarian state goons, and you're waiting to be tortured or disappeared, and it's all because you're a trade union or community activist or a member of a left-wing social democratic party that favours a redistribution of wealth away from the super-rich, you're probably not going to buy it.
0 -
Unlikely, but a lesser problem did for Fillon.Scott_P said:0 -
I thought one of the earliest cut off dates was mid May, May 22nd IIRC.FrancisUrquhart said:
"The Crown Prosecution Service will announce its decision during the campaign."Pulpstar said:
Laughable.Scott_P said:
Thrasher seems certain the CPS will announce all this during the campaign. I thought we established that this is far from certain, the cut off date for one of the earliest cases is after the GE, let alone all the others.0 -
"The Crown Prosecution Service will announce its decision during the campaign."Pulpstar said:
Laughable.Scott_P said:
Thrasher states they WILL make a decision during the GE campaign. I thought we established that even the earliest case can be left until after, let alone the later cases.
Now I wouldn't be exactly shocked if they do drop the bombshell at a very inconvenient time, but it isn't a nailed on certainty as suggested by Thrasher.0 -
Putin is head of the Russian political mafia which works closely with the criminal mafia.glw said:
Putin with his very close ties to industry, the security services, and organised crime is a much better fit for modern fascism.Paristonda said:Is the consensus view that Putin himself counts as a fascist? If anything this new wave of populism is all about emulating Putin's rule of Russia as much as possible. Yet you rarely hear Putin himself referred to as a fascist.
Only last year Putin took almost direct control of the MVD internal security forces, more or less dropping their criminal investigation purpose*, naming the new organisation the National Guard. Now he intends to consolidate control of the FSB, SVR and other organisations under the umbrella of a new Ministry of State Security (MGB).
Putin will have an immense security apparatus under his direct control, without any rivals in their chain of command.
* Technically this still exists, but effectively without the necessary officers to enforce federal law.
0 -
worsley and eccles south looks like a 2-horse race between labour and tories.
Paddys have tory 8/13 labour 6/5
coral (and I think ladbrokes too) have labour 2/5 tory 7/4
one or both is badly wrong. I'm on tories at 7/4 with coral. very big UKIP vote to squeeze.0 -
Fillon was up against Emmanuel Macron.logical_song said:
Unlikely, but a lesser problem did for Fillon.Scott_P said:
Theresa May is facing Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
Even if it is bad news for the Tories, it still won't make any differnce to the outcome. People are voting for who is going to be PM - May or Corbyn. In the privacy of a voting booth, the common sense and pragmatism of the public will prevail, as always.FrancisUrquhart said:
"The Crown Prosecution Service will announce its decision during the campaign."Pulpstar said:
Laughable.Scott_P said:
Thrasher states they WILL make a decision during the GE campaign. I thought we established that even the earliest case can be left until after, let alone the later cases.
Now I wouldn't be exactly shocked if they do drop the bombshell at a very inconvenient time, but it isn't a nailed on certainty as suggested by Thrasher.0 -
Looks like a 'vast minority' doesn't it?Chelyabinsk said:
37%, apparently.logical_song said:What's a figure for the 'vast majority' of 650.
Nuttall insists that Ukip candidates will be standing in the “vast majority” of seats.0 -
Looking very Ferrari in Russia.
Just rebacked them for the championship, Vettel for pole... and a couple of quid on Raikkonen for the win at 17.5.0 -
I'll put it down as a joke article by Thrasher, seeing as he mentions Shipley and recapturing Scotland !
A very dry sense of humour indeed.0 -
So, Cyan, is your name a reflection of your politics - environmentalist blue?Cyan said:
Oh Wikipedia! One could say Hitler wasn't a fascist. He didn't call himself one. There are different strands. The OAS was formed in Spain. The whole Algerian experience is crucial to understanding the divisions in France today. German, Spanish and Catholic fascisms all fed into it.Patrick said:Wikipedia defines fascism as:
Fascism /ˈfæʃɪzəm/ is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism[1][2], characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and control of industry and commerce[3], that came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.
I'd score MLP as:
Radical - yes
Authoritarian - no
Nationalist - yes
Dictatorial - no
Violent - no
Control of industry - yes
(No doubt her most serious detractors will assume that the violence, authoritarianism and dictatorship are waiting in the wings).
So I'd summarise her as an ethnically diversive, economically controlling, softy bitch. A bit like Diane Abbot. The Horseshoe Theory being basically correct:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory
A lot of violence - civil war - could well be around the corner in France. While the NF don't go around smashing up their opponents' meetings, they are certainly playing on a recognition of that possibility and it is clear that they would take a side in it.
As for the horseshoe theory, well sometimes it's applicable, and we all know Stalin was as bad as Hitler, and so would Trotsky have been if he'd had the chance. But if you're sitting in a football stadium in Chile, having been rounded up by far-right totalitarian state goons, and you're waiting to be tortured or disappeared, and it's all because you're a trade union or community activist or a member of a left-wing social democratic party that favours a redistribution of wealth away from the super-rich, you're probably not going to buy it.0 -
On topic: from the title of the article, I can only assume Mike lives under a bridge and has an antipathy toward billy goats.0
-
Charles, you can't even say that.Charles said:
That's incorrect.MikeSmithson said:
Bollocks. Read the whole headline.ThreeQuidder said:Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".
Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
You could say "those Leave voters that expressed an opinion" wanted MLP.
A clear majority didn't give a view
1. Coming to an analytical conclusion and wanting something are two entirely different things involving entirely different parts of the brain. I think it would be better for me to go to the gym every day and work out seriously, but I don't want to.
2. The question as to 'what is better' is open to many different interpretations, and so it is impossible to know which question each respondent answered.0 -
I've got a NOC position at 6/1 to hedge against any surprise fall in Tory support - Tories below 40/ Labour high 20%s - is all it would take. That said, my betting position is heavily on the blues to wipe the floor - but 7 weeks is a long time for the Tories to avoid snatching defeat from victory !!logical_song said:
Unlikely, but a lesser problem did for Fillon.Scott_P said:0 -
?? Nope, I'm radical leftwing and no believer in human-caused climate change.MTimT said:
So, Cyan, is your name a reflection of your politics - environmentalist blue?Cyan said:
Oh Wikipedia! One could say Hitler wasn't a fascist. He didn't call himself one. There are different strands. The OAS was formed in Spain. The whole Algerian experience is crucial to understanding the divisions in France today. German, Spanish and Catholic fascisms all fed into it.Patrick said:Wikipedia defines fascism as:
Fascism /ˈfæʃɪzəm/ is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism[1][2], characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and control of industry and commerce[3], that came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.
I'd score MLP as:
Radical - yes
Authoritarian - no
Nationalist - yes
Dictatorial - no
Violent - no
Control of industry - yes
(No doubt her most serious detractors will assume that the violence, authoritarianism and dictatorship are waiting in the wings).
So I'd summarise her as an ethnically diversive, economically controlling, softy bitch. A bit like Diane Abbot. The Horseshoe Theory being basically correct:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory
A lot of violence - civil war - could well be around the corner in France. While the NF don't go around smashing up their opponents' meetings, they are certainly playing on a recognition of that possibility and it is clear that they would take a side in it.
As for the horseshoe theory, well sometimes it's applicable, and we all know Stalin was as bad as Hitler, and so would Trotsky have been if he'd had the chance. But if you're sitting in a football stadium in Chile, having been rounded up by far-right totalitarian state goons, and you're waiting to be tortured or disappeared, and it's all because you're a trade union or community activist or a member of a left-wing social democratic party that favours a redistribution of wealth away from the super-rich, you're probably not going to buy it.
My tendency when betting is to back the possibility I least want: Leave, Trump, Le Pen. It was heartening to see Mélenchon rise in the polls. So sad he won't be the next president.0 -
Given that there is zero chance of a successful prosecution before June 8 and the matter will be sub judice it is very much a spurious articlePulpstar said:I'll put it down as a joke article by Thrasher, seeing as he mentions Shipley and recapturing Scotland !
A very dry sense of humour indeed.0 -
It reads like, to take on the fascist theme, Hitler's plans for the USSR. Week 1, Kharkov, Week 2, Moscow, Week 3, Stalingrad, Week 4, Vladivostock. Easy. Generals, make it happen.Pulpstar said:I'll put it down as a joke article by Thrasher, seeing as he mentions Shipley and recapturing Scotland !
A very dry sense of humour indeed.
I can see the sense of humour passing true believers by (but would they be reading Sky?).0 -
It's hilarious, and clearly meant to be.Pulpstar said:I can't honestly believe Michael Thrasher has put his name to that article.
Hint: It's what he says about Shipley which gives it away, and if you didn't sniff it out as a spoof then, look at the next 'reason'!0 -
Thanks and good. Things to agree on and things to disagree on makes for livelier debate.Cyan said:
?? Nope, I'm radical leftwing and no believer in human-caused climate change.MTimT said:
So, Cyan, is your name a reflection of your politics - environmentalist blue?Cyan said:
Oh Wikipedia! One could say Hitler wasn't a fascist. He didn't call himself one. There are different strands. The OAS was formed in Spain. The whole Algerian experience is crucial to understanding the divisions in France today. German, Spanish and Catholic fascisms all fed into it.Patrick said:Wikipedia defines fascism as:
Fascism /ˈfæʃɪzəm/ is a form of radical authoritarian nationalism[1][2], characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and control of industry and commerce[3], that came to prominence in early 20th-century Europe.
I'd score MLP as:
Radical - yes
Authoritarian - no
Nationalist - yes
Dictatorial - no
Violent - no
Control of industry - yes
(No doubt her most serious detractors will assume that the violence, authoritarianism and dictatorship are waiting in the wings).
So I'd summarise her as an ethnically diversive, economically controlling, softy bitch. A bit like Diane Abbot. The Horseshoe Theory being basically correct:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory
A lot of violence - civil war - could well be around the corner in France. While the NF don't go around smashing up their opponents' meetings, they are certainly playing on a recognition of that possibility and it is clear that they would take a side in it.
As for the horseshoe theory, well sometimes it's applicable, and we all know Stalin was as bad as Hitler, and so would Trotsky have been if he'd had the chance. But if you're sitting in a football stadium in Chile, having been rounded up by far-right totalitarian state goons, and you're waiting to be tortured or disappeared, and it's all because you're a trade union or community activist or a member of a left-wing social democratic party that favours a redistribution of wealth away from the super-rich, you're probably not going to buy it.
My tendency when betting is to back the possibility I least want: Leave, Trump, Le Pen. It was heartening to see Mélenchon rise in the polls. So sad he won't be the next president.0 -
It had me laughing actually, then I remembered my betting positionRichard_Nabavi said:
It's hilarious, and clearly meant to be.Pulpstar said:I can't honestly believe Michael Thrasher has put his name to that article.
Hint: It's what he says about Shipley which gives it away, and if you didn't sniff it out as a spoof then, look at the next 'reason'!
0 -
Stoke on Trent Central
4/7 Lab (from 4/11)
2/1 Con (from 5/1)
6/1 UKIP
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/stoke-on-trent-central/winning-party
0 -
William Hill go 10/11 each of two in Dagenham
Fries my brain to see Labour that price and not value
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/dagenham-and-rainham/winning-party
0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
It's hilarious, and clearly meant to be.Pulpstar said:I can't honestly believe Michael Thrasher has put his name to that article.
Hint: It's what he says about Shipley which gives it away, and if you didn't sniff it out as a spoof then, look at the next 'reason'!Richard_Nabavi said:
It's hilarious, and clearly meant to be.Pulpstar said:I can't honestly believe Michael Thrasher has put his name to that article.
Hint: It's what he says about Shipley which gives it away, and if you didn't sniff it out as a spoof then, look at the next 'reason'!</blockquote
Agreed.
I think that even if the CPS does bring charges, this could only damage May if it could be blamed on her in some way. I don't think it can be.0 -
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell says today’s slow down in economic growth will help Labour tempt back Ukip supporters.
McDonnel said the fall in the rate of growth from 0.7% to 0.3% was one of the reasons the prime minister is refusing to take part in TV debates with Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
You've got us bang to rights Alistair. We love nothing more than going home to sing the Horst Wesel Lied while watching Triumph of the Will.AlastairMeeks said:Neither the polling, nor the site's Leavers' reaction to it, comes as a surprise. Who would have thought that those susceptible to xenophobic lies would hope that a close ally would be led by a fascist?
0 -
It's not too far from you - how active are UKIP in this seat? This may be vital information.isam said:William Hill go 10/11 each of two in Dagenham
Fries my brain to see Labour that price and not value
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/dagenham-and-rainham/winning-party0 -
O/T:
"Oxford University has apologised for saying that avoiding eye contact could be "everyday racism" after it was accused of discriminating against autistic people.
The claim was included in a list of "racial micro-aggressions" in an equality and diversity unit newsletter.
But the university was criticised for being "insensitive" to autistic people who can struggle making eye contact.
It said it had made a mistake and not taken disabilities into account."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-397426700 -
I got on at 5-1, current prices about right maybe ?isam said:Stoke on Trent Central
4/7 Lab (from 4/11)
2/1 Con (from 5/1)
6/1 UKIP
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/stoke-on-trent-central/winning-party
No Nuttall running this time round. Tories could well win from 3rd.0 -
Inevitably, as night follows day. But those arguing the SNP decline is over egged might want to reflect on the leader's rating.....Pulpstar said:
It will do for May too, but not yet.CarlottaVance said:
Far be it from me to rain on the Nats parade, but there's little evidence that support for independence has moved in 3 years. There is growing evidence that SNP support is declining - accompanied by a declining leader's rating:Alistair said:
What I haven't quite worked out is how Yes has risen 2 points whilst SNP vote has fallen in the YouGov.CarlottaVance said:Oldies for Tories!
Scotland 65+
Con: 47
SNP: 25
Lab: 15
LiD: 9
Across the other age demographics the SNP is pretty stable: 48-45-49, while Con profile grows with age: 17-16-30. Lab does better younger: 23-22-13
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2sjw512ap2/TimesResults_170427_Scotland_WestminsterVI_R1_W.pdf
Sturgeon Net well (ex DK):
Feb 15: +49
Mar 15: +46
Apr 15: +50
May 15: +60
Sep 15: +41
Oct 15: +40
Feb 16: +40
Mar 16: +32
Apr 16: +32
May 16: +33
Jul 16: +37
Aug 16: +24
Nov 16: +12
Mar 17: +17
Apr 17: +2
It's been a great run - but, inevitably, Mr Gravity has come calling.....0 -
Nevermind a new bridge across the Thames! We need new bridges across the Tyne and the Tees!
Maybe more marginals after June should help.0 -
How many months is it?
Trump misses his old life.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-39743332/what-trump-misses
I'm sure we can come to some arrangment.0 -
Latest Odoxa poll: 4% swing to Le Pen between 24-25 and 26-27 April.
0
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