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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEA

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  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RobD said:

    GeoffM said:

    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    Why do we not get money back?

    The Scots thought that they were entitled to 10% of everything back including 10% of all shared embassy floor space.

    Why do the EU not, on the same measure, owe us 1/27th of everything?
    Because, thank god, we weren't in it when it became a fully fledged country.
    Butbutbutbut that was never going to happen.

    I lots of people said "status quo" - and not in a musical context.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,102

    I wonder if this MP will be replaced? I mean retired or forced to step down? Maybe he will defect to the Lib Dems as he would find his views similar to Tim Farron!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4455962/Student-says-MP-told-class-homosexuality-wrong.html

    I thought Farron had made it clear that he didn’t hold those views
    The schoolgirl in the article sounds as if she was severely triggered by Turner's comments.

    Hopefully, the School will allow her time off to seek counselling.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    surbiton said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    justin124 said:

    surbiton said:

    The LEAVE voters wants the fascist to win.

    Why am I not surprised ?

    And in the UK they want the lying bitch to win!
    Moderators!
    Do you say that when people like SeanT use the F or the C word?
    As far as the extreme right on this site are concerned, if they hurl abuse it is their freedom to express.

    OK. Theresa May is an ugly, *itch ! No swear words used !
    Ah the "he started it" line of logic.

    Just because you are rude doesn't mean I have to be and that applies to you too and those you call extreme right. Just because someone else swears doesn't mean I'd become a misogynist.

    I have too much respect for my mother, wife and daughters to use your language about female politicians I oppose. If you don't that says more about you than anyone else.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    As the EU27 have clearly and consistently stated, Brexit means Brexit.

    Hardline leavers should be very happy with the EU position, they are clear that there is no halfway house soft Brexit. The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.

    As suchhardline Leavers should support Macron.
    You were right up to the final sentence. If we want to secure the largest possible payment and the smoothest possible clean WTO exit it surely assists us to have an EU in turmoil rather than Macron parroting German lines?

    Yep, makes sense for us to want economic turmoil visited on our biggest export market.

    The US? How did they come into this thread?

    We don't send 40%+ of our exports to the US. We send them to the member states of the European Union.

    The largest country for UK goods exported is the US.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    My thoughts exactly. The EU want to insist on the hardest of Brexits, then they are saying goodbye to any payments of any kind.

    There can be no settlement on the final bill until the future relationship is understood. The most I'd offer, is to agree in principle what items could fall under a Brexit bill if, and only if, there is a satisfactory agreement for going forward, and that the amounts involved will be related to the attractiveness of that future agreement.

    No deal, no payments, period.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,937
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    What the referendum seems to have done is to transform people who for years had been saying that society was more nuanced than meets the eye, who avoided stereotyping of people on flimsy evidence, who protested that groups of people were not "a monolith", into the people they used to criticise!
    More than 8 out of 10 leavers who expressed a preference deciding to root for the fascist is quite a monolithic bloc.
    At least they haven't happily bought houses in countries run by actual Fascists, as you have, in Orban's Hungary, which you now apparently consider your "spiritual home".


    Maybe your criticism would have some validity if Alastair actually expressed support for Orban. AFAIK he hasn't. Otherwise it's just as nonsensical as complaining about people doing things in Hitler's Germany or Trump's America
  • Options
    JeremyBeadleJeremyBeadle Posts: 28
    edited April 2017
    "The schoolgirl in the article sounds as if she was severely triggered by Turner's comments."

    Have you checked whether she in fact identifies as a schoolgirl, and not as a 52-year-old Canadian man, say?


  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,102

    "The schoolgirl in the article sounds as if she was severely triggered by Turner's comments."

    Have you checked whether she in fact identifies as a schoolgirl, and not as a 52-year-old Canadian man, say?


    My error. I shouldn't have presumed to assign her a gender.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:



    It must be hard to get elected in, say, Tower Hamlets, without sharing many opinions with Adolf.

    proof?
    It does seem that in Bangladesh copies of Mein Kampf sell well:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8382132.stm

    Mind you, I have a copy on Kindle myself. It is pretty unreadable.
    Have you tried the English translation? :D
    Ich Kenne ein bisschen Deutsch!
    Only a little? :p
    Genug!
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    nunu said:



    It must be hard to get elected in, say, Tower Hamlets, without sharing many opinions with Adolf.

    proof?
    It does seem that in Bangladesh copies of Mein Kampf sell well:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/8382132.stm

    Mind you, I have a copy on Kindle myself. It is pretty unreadable.
    I prefer reading the hardback version.

    It can be quite a conversation starter on a train.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pong said:

    I wonder if this MP will be replaced? I mean retired or forced to step down? Maybe he will defect to the Lib Dems as he would find his views similar to Tim Farron!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4455962/Student-says-MP-told-class-homosexuality-wrong.html

    That's a very odd article. What's the Mail got against Andrew Turner?

    Did Dacre fall out with him at a drinks party, or something?
    I think the Tories on the isle of White have some beef with him about his relationship with his wife. Maybe someone wants to prise him out of the seat? From what I remember of the "scandal" I was puzzled as he looked to be the victim rather than the perpetrator of anything but my memory may be playing tricks! Politics can be very harsh.
    Private Eye's had stories for years on what voters on the IoW have to put up with in their MP. It gives the impression that if it wasn't 'pig with a blue rosette' territory he'd lose the seat or be deselected.

    The Eye hasn't bothered to cover the IoW since 2015. Judging by its contents, it has many other stories to cover.

    This is what some voters have to put up with in safe seats, I'm afraid. I think MPs in marginals are possibly chosen more carefully.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,127
    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    Why do we not get money back?

    The Scots thought that they were entitled to 10% of everything back including 10% of all shared embassy floor space.

    Why do the EU not, on the same measure, owe us 1/27th of everything?
    They do. They don't mention it in their communiques, but it has been the subject of discussion. The EU has assets for which we have paid about 15-20% of the cost, at least.

    Divvying it up won't be easy.
    They can keep our 1/27th of that giant Egg they built in Brussels. We'll take cash instead.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    RobD said:

    People are being quite tetchy on here today.

    It is as if some people have forgotten the true meaning of Ed Balls Day. Sad.

    It always gets like this over Ed Balls dinner.
    True. The kids are all over-excited from playing with all the toys Ed Balls brought them. The adults have all been swigging sickly, Yvette Cooper-flavoured Baileys since 10am. It's an incendiary mix.
    "Yvette Cooper-flavoured Baileys" - ugh - that's one bitter beverage.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,257
    GeoffM said:

    Pong said:

    I wonder if this MP will be replaced? I mean retired or forced to step down? Maybe he will defect to the Lib Dems as he would find his views similar to Tim Farron!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4455962/Student-says-MP-told-class-homosexuality-wrong.html

    That's a very odd article. What's the Mail got against Andrew Turner?

    Did Dacre fall out with him at a drinks party, or something?
    I think the Tories on the isle of White have some beef with him about his relationship with his wife. Maybe someone wants to prise him out of the seat? From what I remember of the "scandal" I was puzzled as he looked to be the victim rather than the perpetrator of anything but my memory may be playing tricks! Politics can be very harsh.
    It's a little bit more complicated. His girlfriend had an affair with a prominent fellow Conservative:

    https://onthewight.com/andrew-turner-mp-split-due-affair/
    Private Eye has had sevweral columns devoted to Mr T’s activities over the years
  • Options
    "The EU has assets for which we have paid about 15-20% of the cost, at least.

    Divvying it up won't be easy."

    The Costa Del Sol?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    Why do we not get money back?

    The Scots thought that they were entitled to 10% of everything back including 10% of all shared embassy floor space.

    Why do the EU not, on the same measure, owe us 1/27th of everything?
    They do. They don't mention it in their communiques, but it has been the subject of discussion. The EU has assets for which we have paid about 15-20% of the cost, at least.

    Divvying it up won't be easy.
    They can keep our 1/27th of that giant Egg they built in Brussels. We'll take cash instead.
    Are they going to want that £1.7bn that Cameron and Osborne ruddy well wouldn't pay?! :lol:
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:
    How do they word it to exclude Abott, Lady Nugee and all the other worthies?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Pong said:

    I wonder if this MP will be replaced? I mean retired or forced to step down? Maybe he will defect to the Lib Dems as he would find his views similar to Tim Farron!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4455962/Student-says-MP-told-class-homosexuality-wrong.html

    That's a very odd article. What's the Mail got against Andrew Turner?

    Did Dacre fall out with him at a drinks party, or something?
    I think the Tories on the isle of White have some beef with him about his relationship with his wife. Maybe someone wants to prise him out of the seat? From what I remember of the "scandal" I was puzzled as he looked to be the victim rather than the perpetrator of anything but my memory may be playing tricks! Politics can be very harsh.
    Private Eye's had stories for years on what voters on the IoW have to put up with in their MP. It gives the impression that if it wasn't 'pig with a blue rosette' territory he'd lose the seat or be deselected.

    The Eye hasn't bothered to cover the IoW since 2015. Judging by its contents, it has many other stories to cover.

    This is what some voters have to put up with in safe seats, I'm afraid. I think MPs in marginals are possibly chosen more carefully.
    Historically the seat has been fairly tightly contested with the LDs. Indeed it was LD held from 97 to 01.

    2015 was one of the biggest swings against the LDs in England.
  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    "Austria’s green-left President, Alexander Van der Bellen, suggested in a talk to a group of students that in order to counter Islamophobia, there could come a day “when we must ask all women to wear a headscarf — all of them — out of solidarity towards those who do it for religious reasons”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pope-benedict-xvi-condemns-radical-islam-as-creating-an-explosive-situation/news-story/ad73144c880dcab3b5bca22a2db60218
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,127

    Pong said:

    I wonder if this MP will be replaced? I mean retired or forced to step down? Maybe he will defect to the Lib Dems as he would find his views similar to Tim Farron!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4455962/Student-says-MP-told-class-homosexuality-wrong.html

    That's a very odd article. What's the Mail got against Andrew Turner?

    Did Dacre fall out with him at a drinks party, or something?
    I think the Tories on the isle of White have some beef with him about his relationship with his wife. Maybe someone wants to prise him out of the seat? From what I remember of the "scandal" I was puzzled as he looked to be the victim rather than the perpetrator of anything but my memory may be playing tricks! Politics can be very harsh.
    Private Eye's had stories for years on what voters on the IoW have to put up with in their MP. It gives the impression that if it wasn't 'pig with a blue rosette' territory he'd lose the seat or be deselected.

    The Eye hasn't bothered to cover the IoW since 2015. Judging by its contents, it has many other stories to cover.

    This is what some voters have to put up with in safe seats, I'm afraid. I think MPs in marginals are possibly chosen more carefully.
    Historically the seat has been fairly tightly contested with the LDs. Indeed it was LD held from 97 to 01.

    2015 was one of the biggest swings against the LDs in England.
    Any ideas why the Greens did so well there?
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    "The EU has assets for which we have paid about 15-20% of the cost, at least.

    Divvying it up won't be easy."

    The Costa Del Sol?

    No. There are already more fish and chip shops on the Costas per square mile than anywhere in the UK.

    Make it officially British and it'll just fill up with immigrants and foreigners who can't speak English scrounging the dole in no time.
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    If macron gets bumped off before the second round of voting does Le Pen become president by default?
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    this site is becoming very attractive to the alt right I'm afraid, will have to come here less often, Sad.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,127
    Prodicus said:

    "Austria’s green-left President, Alexander Van der Bellen, suggested in a talk to a group of students that in order to counter Islamophobia, there could come a day “when we must ask all women to wear a headscarf — all of them — out of solidarity towards those who do it for religious reasons”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pope-benedict-xvi-condemns-radical-islam-as-creating-an-explosive-situation/news-story/ad73144c880dcab3b5bca22a2db60218

    Oh dear...
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    With a Ken Livingstone introduction - all part of the Progressive alliance.
  • Options
    Prodicus said:

    "Austria’s green-left President, Alexander Van der Bellen, suggested in a talk to a group of students that in order to counter Islamophobia, there could come a day “when we must ask all women to wear a headscarf — all of them — out of solidarity towards those who do it for religious reasons”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pope-benedict-xvi-condemns-radical-islam-as-creating-an-explosive-situation/news-story/ad73144c880dcab3b5bca22a2db60218

    As long as everyone also wears a cross, shaves their head and all women undergo FGM.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741
    Listened to 'More or Less' on Radio 4 earlier tearing Boris's 'facts' to pieces.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08n4lkg
    No wonder some people mistake him for Trump.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson/12200562/Boris-Johnson-I-was-mistaken-for-Donald-Trump.html
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,438

    "You rambling post is difficult to understand. But are you suggesting that if someone has an opinion against some of the actions of the State of Israel, they are anti-Semitic ?"

    Most of the time.

    They aren't 100% the same, but just as Leave voters correlate with Le Pen or Trump, people complaining about Israel tend to be anti-semites.

    Jesus, I didn't realise so many of my Jewish friends were anti-semites. I'm going to have to start looking at them in a different way.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Pong said:

    I wonder if this MP will be replaced? I mean retired or forced to step down? Maybe he will defect to the Lib Dems as he would find his views similar to Tim Farron!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4455962/Student-says-MP-told-class-homosexuality-wrong.html

    That's a very odd article. What's the Mail got against Andrew Turner?

    Did Dacre fall out with him at a drinks party, or something?
    I think the Tories on the isle of White have some beef with him about his relationship with his wife. Maybe someone wants to prise him out of the seat? From what I remember of the "scandal" I was puzzled as he looked to be the victim rather than the perpetrator of anything but my memory may be playing tricks! Politics can be very harsh.
    Private Eye's had stories for years on what voters on the IoW have to put up with in their MP. It gives the impression that if it wasn't 'pig with a blue rosette' territory he'd lose the seat or be deselected.

    The Eye hasn't bothered to cover the IoW since 2015. Judging by its contents, it has many other stories to cover.

    This is what some voters have to put up with in safe seats, I'm afraid. I think MPs in marginals are possibly chosen more carefully.
    Are you sure? Peter Brand, the LibDem certainly held it in my political lifetime.

    In that period of my life I was mostly in Hampshire I went across to campaign against him/them a few times.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Prodicus said:

    "Austria’s green-left President, Alexander Van der Bellen, suggested in a talk to a group of students that in order to counter Islamophobia, there could come a day “when we must ask all women to wear a headscarf — all of them — out of solidarity towards those who do it for religious reasons”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pope-benedict-xvi-condemns-radical-islam-as-creating-an-explosive-situation/news-story/ad73144c880dcab3b5bca22a2db60218

    Oh dear - and so it begins.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    nunu said:

    this site is becoming very attractive to the alt right I'm afraid, will have to come here less often, Sad.

    Depending on when you joined Mike might agree to refund some of your subscription.
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,816
    GeoffM said:

    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    Why do we not get money back?

    The Scots thought that they were entitled to 10% of everything back including 10% of all shared embassy floor space.

    Why do the EU not, on the same measure, owe us 1/27th of everything?
    They do, and this has been included in the current net total of debt discussed in informed estimates.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017

    If macron gets bumped off before the second round of voting does Le Pen become president by default?

    Good question.

    Actually, it's a horrible question - but relevant for punters.

    I expect the 1st round would get rerun?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,937



    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    May has so little interest in the Brexit negotiations and is approaching them so incompetently, I do wonder if she has some plan where the outcome becomes irrelevant. I hardly think she can spring another of her surprises and will declare Brexit cancelled. Slightly more likely, she doesn't mind a Brexit crash if she can blame it on the EU. Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    Good evening, everyone.

    F1: Vandoorne has a 15 place grid penalty for an engine failure. Frankly, I don't think this will affect his race much.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,127
    edited April 2017
    Pong said:

    If macron gets bumped off before the second round of voting does Le Pen become president by default?

    Good question.

    Actually, it's a horrible question - but relevant for punters.

    I expect the 1st round would get rerun?
    From the constitution (google translated from French)

    "In the event of the death or incapacity of one of the two most favored candidates in the first round before any withdrawals, the Constitutional Council declares that all electoral operations must be re-conducted; The same shall apply in the event of the death or incapacity of one of the two candidates remaining for the second round."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,077
    Pong said:

    If macron gets bumped off before the second round of voting does Le Pen become president by default?

    Good question.

    Actually, it's a horrible question - but relevant for punters.

    I expect the 1st round would get rerun?
    Betfair market voided perhaps ?

    Lay Le Pen rather than back Macron I guess.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,057
    SeanT said:

    GeoffM said:

    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    Why do we not get money back?

    The Scots thought that they were entitled to 10% of everything back including 10% of all shared embassy floor space.

    Why do the EU not, on the same measure, owe us 1/27th of everything?
    They do. They don't mention it in their communiques, but it has been the subject of discussion. The EU has assets for which we have paid about 15-20% of the cost, at least.

    Divvying it up won't be easy.

    What are the assets? I guess they are loans made to national and regional governments. Is that right?

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    this site is becoming very attractive to the alt right I'm afraid, will have to come here less often, Sad.

    Who is alt right on here? Also, WHAT is alt right?

    It's one of those voguish phrases which, on analysis, breaks down into meaninglessness, in my experience. But maybe you can enlighten.
    People who use it are virtue signalling
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    If macron gets bumped off before the second round of voting does Le Pen become president by default?

    Good question.

    Actually, it's a horrible question - but relevant for punters.

    I expect the 1st round would get rerun?
    From the constitution (google translated from French)

    "In the event of the death or incapacity of one of the two most favored candidates in the first round before any withdrawals, the Constitutional Council declares that all electoral operations must be re-conducted; The same shall apply in the event of the death or incapacity of one of the two candidates remaining for the second round."
    thank you. sounds a very sensible rule.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2017
    @jeremycorbyn: Theresa May is hiding from the public and TV debates with me because she is too weak to defend her record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/28/theresa-may-accused-of-hiding-from-public-at-activist-filled-event-leeds
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,057
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    As the EU27 have clearly and consistently stated, Brexit means Brexit.

    Hardline leavers should be very happy with the EU position, they are clear that there is no halfway house soft Brexit. The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.

    As suchhardline Leavers should support Macron.
    You were right up to the final sentence. If we want to secure the largest possible payment and the smoothest possible clean WTO exit it surely assists us to have an EU in turmoil rather than Macron parroting German lines?

    Yep, makes sense for us to want economic turmoil visited on our biggest export market.

    The US? How did they come into this thread?

    We don't send 40%+ of our exports to the US. We send them to the member states of the European Union.

    The largest country for UK goods exported is the US.

    Yes, I know. But we still send over 40% of all our exports to EU member states. I remain to be convinced that seeing them cope with the economic turmoil caused by a Le Pen win would do us much good.

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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,816
    sarissa said:

    GeoffM said:

    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    Why do we not get money back?

    The Scots thought that they were entitled to 10% of everything back including 10% of all shared embassy floor space.

    Why do the EU not, on the same measure, owe us 1/27th of everything?
    They do, and this has been included in the current net total of debt discussed in informed estimates.
    Sorry, should have posted the link:

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiUiZLjycfTAhXkJcAKHSQAB7kQFggyMAI&url=https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/pb_barker_brexit_bill_3feb17.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGSC3MTfHmDRlZcaXhDDF90wE5Obw
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,438

    Fenster said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Can we have a Number 5 please?

    5) I'd do her niece? Fascist or not.

    *I've always been a shallow bastard.
    Her niece is less of a fascist than a fundamentalist religious crusader. A catholic ultra. She's liberal on economics so no fan of a large powerful state and doesn't even seem to like the idea of la republique (she has been caught associating with pro-monarchy groups in France). She's always on about 'judeo-christian' war with islam and her focus is on being socially conservative rather than 'populist'.
    She has in the past proposed - in all seriousness - that the European Union becomes the European Christian Union, and that is should stand as a bulwark against Islam.
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    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    If it was 1st April, Ken Livingstone would be going for the PHD with Baroness Tongue.
    Sounds like a euphemism from Viz
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,636
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    What the referendum seems to have done is to transform people who for years had been saying that society was more nuanced than meets the eye, who avoided stereotyping of people on flimsy evidence, who protested that groups of people were not "a monolith", into the people they used to criticise!
    More than 8 out of 10 leavers who expressed a preference deciding to root for the fascist is quite a monolithic bloc.
    At least they haven't happily bought houses in countries run by actual Fascists, as you have, in Orban's Hungary, which you now apparently consider your "spiritual home".


    Two grotesque factual errors in a single sentence.

    You're improving.
    Thank you. I should also say that if you ever feel like fucking off to your beloved quasi-fucking-Nazi Hungary and not ever fucking coming back, all of us here will be sincerely rooting for you. Go for it. Make the break. Be bold!

    All of us ?
    In your own words, 'fuck off'.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,057
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...

    As ever, she will take her lead from the right-wing Brexit press.

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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    On topic

    Almost all thread headers have a byline - TSE or Mike or some other contributor.

    I do find it amusing that when a thread header is quite clearly utter bollocks and makes claims unsupported by the basic data, no one is honest enough to actually put their name to it.

    If a political party made a dishonest claim like this in their flyers then this site would be all over it.

    Only a day or two ago, I was thinking that we've seen nothing from the poster 'Mildred Herring' lately.

    Good evening, everyone.
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    SO

    I'm presuming you are actually looking forward to tearing up your Spurs bets this weekend.... touch a lot of wood? That win at Palace was massive.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    Maybe she is better at politics than showbiz
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,636

    Good evening, everyone.

    F1: Vandoorne has a 15 place grid penalty for an engine failure. Frankly, I don't think this will affect his race much.

    Evening, Mr.D.
    Do you concur with my Ferrari bet ?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Lots of Lib dem roadside signs "winning here" en route to lynton/ Lorna Doone country.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    I wonder if this MP will be replaced? I mean retired or forced to step down? Maybe he will defect to the Lib Dems as he would find his views similar to Tim Farron!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4455962/Student-says-MP-told-class-homosexuality-wrong.html

    That's a very odd article. What's the Mail got against Andrew Turner?

    Did Dacre fall out with him at a drinks party, or something?
    I think the Tories on the isle of White have some beef with him about his relationship with his wife. Maybe someone wants to prise him out of the seat? From what I remember of the "scandal" I was puzzled as he looked to be the victim rather than the perpetrator of anything but my memory may be playing tricks! Politics can be very harsh.
    Private Eye's had stories for years on what voters on the IoW have to put up with in their MP. It gives the impression that if it wasn't 'pig with a blue rosette' territory he'd lose the seat or be deselected.

    The Eye hasn't bothered to cover the IoW since 2015. Judging by its contents, it has many other stories to cover.

    This is what some voters have to put up with in safe seats, I'm afraid. I think MPs in marginals are possibly chosen more carefully.
    Historically the seat has been fairly tightly contested with the LDs. Indeed it was LD held from 97 to 01.

    2015 was one of the biggest swings against the LDs in England.
    Any ideas why the Greens did so well there?
    There is a slight Totnes hippie like appeal of parts of the Wight, and also a lot of feeling that the Wight is dominated by a few closely connected people. Island politics can be very insular (of course).

    There is also quite a lot of low wage employment and poverty*, so like Cornwall a fairly strong left wing rural radical tradition. The LDs were usually the beneficiary of this, so particularly punished for the coalition. There was also a bodged school reorganisation at the time, and the Green candidate was an activist teacher campaigning on the issue.

    *Incomes and employment on the Wight are roughly the same as Merseyside, very different to the rest of rural SE England.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    nunu said:

    this site is becoming very attractive to the alt right I'm afraid, will have to come here less often, Sad.

    The Brexit is evil/will end in disaster/is a plan to turn the working class into villeins seems fairly vociferous. They're hardly alt-right.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Prodicus said:

    "Austria’s green-left President, Alexander Van der Bellen, suggested in a talk to a group of students that in order to counter Islamophobia, there could come a day “when we must ask all women to wear a headscarf — all of them — out of solidarity towards those who do it for religious reasons”.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pope-benedict-xvi-condemns-radical-islam-as-creating-an-explosive-situation/news-story/ad73144c880dcab3b5bca22a2db60218

    Van Der Bellend more like
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AnneJGP said:

    On topic

    Almost all thread headers have a byline - TSE or Mike or some other contributor.

    I do find it amusing that when a thread header is quite clearly utter bollocks and makes claims unsupported by the basic data, no one is honest enough to actually put their name to it.

    If a political party made a dishonest claim like this in their flyers then this site would be all over it.

    Only a day or two ago, I was thinking that we've seen nothing from the poster 'Mildred Herring' lately.

    Good evening, everyone.
    A bit fishy, if you ask me...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,527
    rcs1000 said:

    "You rambling post is difficult to understand. But are you suggesting that if someone has an opinion against some of the actions of the State of Israel, they are anti-Semitic ?"

    Most of the time.

    They aren't 100% the same, but just as Leave voters correlate with Le Pen or Trump, people complaining about Israel tend to be anti-semites.

    Jesus, I didn't realise so many of my Jewish friends were anti-semites. I'm going to have to start looking at them in a different way.
    Self haters is the Mad Mel approved term.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    And yet, funnily enough she has become Tory leader, the most popular PM in many years, and is now cruising to an unexpected and enormous election victory (after everyone accused her of dithering), an election where she might defeat the Opposition so severely it will take them another decade or more to recover, if they ever do.

    For someone so frit and incompetent, she seems weirdly good at basic, brutal politics. The opposite, then, of David Cameron, who was meant to be so smooth and skilled, but in reality was so clowinshly inept he was bundled from office after losing an unloseable referendum he didn't have to call.
    Yeah but look at the way George Osborne skilfully outmanoeuvred her by getting sacked from the cabinet, resigning from the HofC and getting a job at the Shtaaaaan-dud #cunning
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Is the NF under ,Let Pen fascist ? Umberto Eco lists 14 properties of fascism. By my reckoning, the NF ticks about 5 and a half out of 14 boxes. So however distasteful they may seem, not fascist on Eco's terms.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    There is an election in June
    Which is causing much frothing and spume
    Whether Leave or Remain
    The problem is the same
    Can pb-ers please try not to fume?
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,636
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    What evidence there is suggests that she is a pretty good negotiator - which is an entirely different skill from debating or interacting with voters.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    And yet, funnily enough she has become Tory leader, the most popular PM in many years, and is now cruising to an unexpected and enormous election victory (after everyone accused her of dithering), an election where she might defeat the Opposition so severely it will take them another decade or more to recover, if they ever do.

    For someone so frit and incompetent, she seems weirdly good at basic, brutal politics. The opposite, then, of David Cameron, who was meant to be so smooth and skilled, but in reality was so clowinshly inept he was bundled from office after losing an unloseable referendum he didn't have to call.
    Cameron always struck me as a good public school PM, he worked hard, he could debate and would always turn out well for the big occasions. Much like a club cricket captain, always has polished shoes for the worthies.
    But his basic politicking at times could be awful and the way he treated the membership meant they lacked warmth towards him. He lacked the basics of being a political leader mainly because of his relatively meteoric rise.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Some firms put on hateful hold music just to make you hang up, I'm sure of it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,335
    I'm on hold to HMRC. I could kill myself.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,636
    SeanT said:

    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    What the referendum seems to have done is to transform people who for years had been saying that society was more nuanced than meets the eye, who avoided stereotyping of people on flimsy evidence, who protested that groups of people were not "a monolith", into the people they used to criticise!
    More than 8 out of 10 leavers who expressed a preference deciding to root for the fascist is quite a monolithic bloc.
    At least they haven't happily bought houses in countries run by actual Fascists, as you have, in Orban's Hungary, which you now apparently consider your "spiritual home".


    Two grotesque factual errors in a single sentence.

    You're improving.
    Thank you. I should also say that if you ever feel like fucking off to your beloved quasi-fucking-Nazi Hungary and not ever fucking coming back, all of us here will be sincerely rooting for you. Go for it. Make the break. Be bold!

    All of us ?
    In your own words, 'fuck off'.
    You don't want Mr Meeks to be happy? I know he can be pompous and annoying, but we surely all wish him well, ultimately., in his new Nazi homeland, where he feels so comfortable.
    No - I just thought you deserved a bit of abuse back at you.
    Nothing personal.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Everyone calm down and cheer up, listen to some classic comedy; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RTWk9QIKS0
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    luckily I don't suppose she will be conducting much of it personally.
    It will be dozens of lawyers and civil servants. Surely.
    I wouldn't want Boris, DD or Fox anywhere near either, given their performance so far. We need these negotiations to be sensibly conducted by people who know what they are doing.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,057

    SO

    I'm presuming you are actually looking forward to tearing up your Spurs bets this weekend.... touch a lot of wood? That win at Palace was massive.

    It was Yuge. Would love to be a loser this weekend. But I fear that is not the Spurs way.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,438
    MTimT said:

    Patrick said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.
    I presume the final bill for diamond Brexit will be £0.01 - but with a free finger wave attached.
    My thoughts exactly. The EU want to insist on the hardest of Brexits, then they are saying goodbye to any payments of any kind.

    There can be no settlement on the final bill until the future relationship is understood. The most I'd offer, is to agree in principle what items could fall under a Brexit bill if, and only if, there is a satisfactory agreement for going forward, and that the amounts involved will be related to the attractiveness of that future agreement.

    No deal, no payments, period.
    Which, by the way, is exactly what the treaties say.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigelb said:

    What evidence there is suggests that she is a pretty good negotiator

    Not really

    What evidence there is suggests she folded cards she didn't have to and caved in to the headbangers without a fight.

    If that's pretty good, we really are screwed.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I'm on hold to HMRC. I could kill myself.

    But if you wanted to have a cosy dinner with them, they are apparently available and willing.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking: Andrew Turner is stepping down as Tory MP for Isle of Wight. Comes after saying homosexuality "wrong" earlier today
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,127
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking: Andrew Turner is stepping down as Tory MP for Isle of Wight. Comes after saying homosexuality "wrong" earlier today

    That escalated quickly.
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    "She has in the past proposed - in all seriousness - that the European Union becomes the European Christian Union, and that is should stand as a bulwark against Islam."

    Incidentally, the top comment on a recent local language BBC Facebook news site (they are staffed by Islamists, natch - any sense that the BBC's foreign language output should somehow promulgate 'British values' is hideously outdated) was that Islamic immigrants to Europe were only a fair response to colonialism by European powers in the past.

    So a European Christian Union might seem laughable to those brought up in the West, but is a real issue for much of the world's Muslims.
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    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking: Andrew Turner is stepping down as Tory MP for Isle of Wight. Comes after saying homosexuality "wrong" earlier today

    Good
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,335
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking: Andrew Turner is stepping down as Tory MP for Isle of Wight. Comes after saying homosexuality "wrong" earlier today

    Good. Con Gain.

    A truly bizarre man who should have stood down last time round.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I'm on hold to HMRC. I could kill myself.

    Don't worry, after speaking to them you'll have switched targets.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,127

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Breaking: Andrew Turner is stepping down as Tory MP for Isle of Wight. Comes after saying homosexuality "wrong" earlier today

    Good. Con Gain.

    A truly bizarre man who should have stood down last time round.
    Con hold?
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    I'm on hold to HMRC. I could kill myself.

    The Back to the Future principle song just kicked in, I feel a smidgen better now.
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    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    What evidence there is suggests that she is a pretty good negotiator - which is an entirely different skill from debating or interacting with voters.
    May managed to make one pro-eu (sort of) speech during the referendum campaign and then for the rest of the campaign did nothing in particular - and did it very well.

    And if you think Mrs May is going to be literally sitting at one side of a table with the other 27 leaders at the other then you are hopelessly naive. The negotiations will be done by the civil service, mainly, in dotting i's, crossing t's and advising the politicians.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    Like this.

    https://youtu.be/AjPBp6DOwgU
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,335
    surbiton said:

    I'm on hold to HMRC. I could kill myself.

    But if you wanted to have a cosy dinner with them, they are apparently available and willing.
    Nah. "One of our advisors will be with you as soon as possible."

    16 minutes later..
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    Maybe she is better at politics than showbiz
    I think her PMQ performance shows just why she and her party are so far behind in the po...oh wait a minute.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Good evening, everyone.

    F1: Vandoorne has a 15 place grid penalty for an engine failure. Frankly, I don't think this will affect his race much.

    Is that Morris Dancer sarcasm creeping out there a bit?

    LIKE
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    edited April 2017

    SO

    I'm presuming you are actually looking forward to tearing up your Spurs bets this weekend.... touch a lot of wood? That win at Palace was massive.

    It was Yuge. Would love to be a loser this weekend. But I fear that is not the Spurs way.

    I was thinking how to write exactly that word - U G or Euge - to give it the 'weight' of how big a win it was for us - but copped out with massive.

    Looking forward to my...... er... keyring with some WHL grass in it & a season at Wembley now confirmed.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    HaroldO said:

    I'm on hold to HMRC. I could kill myself.

    The Back to the Future principle song just kicked in, I feel a smidgen better now.
    A 90's boyband has now kicked in, thank god the oven isn't gas.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    felix said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    Maybe she is better at politics than showbiz
    I think her PMQ performance shows just why she and her party are so far behind in the po...oh wait a minute.
    Cameron's charm and skills would have won over Working Class leave voters, he just never got the chance...
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,702
    Goodness.

    Leavers a bit grumpy on here. As per usual.

    Don't get me wrong, if you are poor, and economically vulnerable, there is lots to be grumpy about, just that few on here fall into that category and are, rather, the Bolly vs Nyetimber ooh which is best type Leavers. Luckily for them.

    standard.co.uk/business/jim-armitage-we-shot-ourselves-in-the-foot-and-pain-is-starting-to-tell-a3526431.html
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FF43 said:



    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    May has so little interest in the Brexit negotiations and is approaching them so incompetently, I do wonder if she has some plan where the outcome becomes irrelevant. I hardly think she can spring another of her surprises and will declare Brexit cancelled. Slightly more likely, she doesn't mind a Brexit crash if she can blame it on the EU. Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    Considering that she called the election over Brexit, she is very reluctant to explain what her Brexit policy is. The vacuous "Best possible deal for Britain" is a meaningless soundbite, as anyone from the fluffiest softie to the titanium tipped hard case imagines that their version of Brexit is best.

    It is quite unclear what she expects to propose to a Commons and Lords that passed A50 with barely any delay or dispute that they will rise up against. It would have to be something epically unpopular to get them to vote it down.

    May is selling a Brexit pig in a poke.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    If macron gets bumped off before the second round of voting does Le Pen become president by default?

    Good question.

    Actually, it's a horrible question - but relevant for punters.

    I expect the 1st round would get rerun?
    From the constitution (google translated from French)

    "In the event of the death or incapacity of one of the two most favored candidates in the first round before any withdrawals, the Constitutional Council declares that all electoral operations must be re-conducted; The same shall apply in the event of the death or incapacity of one of the two candidates remaining for the second round."
    Thanks.

    @pulpstar - yes, but don't think laying/backing would realistically make a difference. I can't imagine betfair could do anything other than void in such a circumstance.

    I doubt they'd put up a market for the rerun.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    What evidence there is suggests that she is a pretty good negotiator - which is an entirely different skill from debating or interacting with voters.
    May managed to make one pro-eu (sort of) speech during the referendum campaign and then for the rest of the campaign did nothing in particular - and did it very well.

    And if you think Mrs May is going to be literally sitting at one side of a table with the other 27 leaders at the other then you are hopelessly naive. The negotiations will be done by the civil service, mainly, in dotting i's, crossing t's and advising the politicians.
    I have seen photos of Mrs May dressed in a remain shirt campaigning for Remain in her constituency. Accompanied by other remain campaigners from other parties. Including Lib Dems.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Scott_P said:

    @jeremycorbyn: Theresa May is hiding from the public and TV debates with me because she is too weak to defend her record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/28/theresa-may-accused-of-hiding-from-public-at-activist-filled-event-leeds

    ... he said from the inner back room of his office. Through a small hole in the wall. But he is visiting A 'safe area' constituency tomorrow. And an absolute no-hoper on Monday. Sorry, Tuesday. Monday off in lieu.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That is the basic point. There is nothing that Leavers are not prepared to sacrifice, whether it be independence of the judiciary, Parliamentary accountability of government or the democracy of one of our closest neighbours, if that sacrifice might assist in some minor way Britain leaving the EU.

    The world can burn, so long as among the embers is a Britain that has left the EU.
    As the EU27 have clearly and consistently stated, Brexit means Brexit.

    Hardline leavers should be very happy with the EU position, they are clear that there is no halfway house soft Brexit. The only thing that needs discussing is the process of hard Brexit and the final bill.

    As suchhardline Leavers should support Macron.
    You were right up to the final sentence. If we want to secure the largest possible payment and the smoothest possible clean WTO exit it surely assists us to have an EU in turmoil rather than Macron parroting German lines?

    Yep, makes sense for us to want economic turmoil visited on our biggest export market.

    The US? How did they come into this thread?

    We don't send 40%+ of our exports to the US. We send them to the member states of the European Union.

    The largest country for UK goods exported is the US.

    Yes, I know. But we still send over 40% of all our exports to EU member states. I remain to be convinced that seeing them cope with the economic turmoil caused by a Le Pen win would do us much good.

    I stopped reading after "Yes, I know" as soon as it became apparent that the next word wasn't "Sorry"
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,068
    Mr. B, just had a search. I briefly considered, then discarded the notion, of backing Vettel each way for pole at 4.5 (prior to practice). Having watched much of P2, I'm wondering about that (alas, now fallen to 2.87).

    I agree Ferrari are looking strong. Only 2.37 for the Constructors'. Not enough, given the time, to tempt me, but I'm happy with my 4.5 or whatever it was I backed them at.

    Hmm. Raikkonen 51 to win the title. If that were top 3 (I think the old each way was a fifth the odds for top 3, current ones are a third the odds for top 2) it'd be damned tasty.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,438
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    They do. They don't mention it in their communiques, but it has been the subject of discussion. The EU has assets for which we have paid about 15-20% of the cost, at least.

    Divvying it up won't be easy.

    There are some very interesting discussions about exactly what proportion of EU assets (EUR140bn) we are entitled - should it be based on percentage of gross contributions since year dot, or population, etc etc. You can make a case for it being as low as 7%, or as high as 20-25%.

    Ultimately, the bill stuff is rubbish though. We will take responsibility for paying British MEPs and Eurocrats' pensions (because we'd likely lose that one in court if it came to it), we'll agree a transitional period with a reduced fee (which will count against the total), and the share of assets will be offset.

    Mrs May will be able to declare that not a penny will go to Brussels. Various EU functionaries will claim that we paid €50bn. Everyone has a little victory. What's not to like?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    FF43 said:



    I think that probably correct. Any significant bill will be a political suicide pill for the MPs backing paying it. It could well be why May wants a big majority. It is the Leave Fundamentalists ratber than the Remainers who pose the biggest threat to her.

    May has so little interest in the Brexit negotiations and is approaching them so incompetently, I do wonder if she has some plan where the outcome becomes irrelevant. I hardly think she can spring another of her surprises and will declare Brexit cancelled. Slightly more likely, she doesn't mind a Brexit crash if she can blame it on the EU. Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    What proof hav you for such a statement?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,335
    SeanT said:

    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems that we have a four way split on topic between Leavers:

    1) Leavers don't really support Marine Le Pen and the fact that nearly 9 out of 10 of those who expressed a preference named her is neither here nor there
    2) Thinking that Marine Le Pen is best for Britain isn't the same as thinking that Marine Le Pen is the more desirable outcome
    3) Marine Le Pen isn't really a fascist and is sadly misunderstood
    4) Hurrah for the blackshirts!

    Most of us think she's far too liberal.
    Be sensible, Alastair.

    Le Pen's election is much the more likely to throw the EU into disarray and could conceivably lead to its demise, the only circumstance which might in retrospect make Brexit appear to have been a wise policy.
    That .
    What
    More than 8 out of 10 leavers who expressed a preference deciding to root for the fascist is quite a monolithic bloc.
    At least they haven't happily bought houses in countries run by actual Fascists, as you have, in Orban's Hungary, which you now apparently consider your "spiritual home".


    Two grotesque factual errors in a single sentence.

    You're improving.
    Thank you. I should also say that if you ever feel like fucking off to your beloved quasi-fucking-Nazi Hungary and not ever fucking coming back, all of us here will be sincerely rooting for you. Go for it. Make the break. Be bold!

    All of us ?
    In your own words, 'fuck off'.
    You don't want Mr Meeks to be happy? I know he can be pompous and annoying, but we surely all wish him well, ultimately., in his new Nazi homeland, where he feels so comfortable.
    It's interesting just how many of the most vociferous Remainers are happy to pronounce judgement on the moral turpitude of the UK, from places like France (where 40% are about to vote for an actual fascist candidate) or Viktor Orban's Hungary.

    In the UK, UKIP looks like Mary Poppins next to those. And even that has now been effectively killed off by our oldest establishment mainstream centre-right party.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    FF43 said:

    Most likely, however, she can't cope. So her main effort goes on preventing anyone discussing Brexit or challenging her on it.

    We have all seen how badly she handles PMQs, even up against Corbyn, is frightened of TV debates or even real voters.

    The slightest thing completely knocks her off her game.

    Just imagine how she will handle the real negotiations once they start...
    Maybe she is better at politics than showbiz
    Like like like.
This discussion has been closed.