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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEA

SystemSystem Posts: 11,723
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    So, Le Pen is not mightier after all.
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    2nd like chelsea
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Certainly not all Leave voters, and I'd bet most have no idea about either of the candidates and are reacting against what they see as the prevailing opinion of who is the 'correct' person, so let's not make too big a deal of it, eh?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    justin124 said:

    I agree with those Tories there who have no wish to be represented by an adulterer.
    I bet they wouldn't give a crap about such a thing in France though.
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    The big issue for Macron will be can he actually implement any of his policies without a recognized Bloc of supporters in the legislative chamber?

    The June elections are probably more important to him than the size of his winning margin next weekend.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Is a debate scheduled between Macron and Le Pen ?
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    I agree with those Tories there who have no wish to be represented by an adulterer.
    I bet they wouldn't give a crap about such a thing in France though.
    I agree with them too. If a politician's wife can't trust him, why should the country?

    Hard to imagine what the equivalent of a Tory would be in France. OK there are some Poujadist types, but where are the gentlemen's clubs or the private schools? One of the Grande Ecoles spawns quite a few "Islington" types who many Tories would cross the road to avoid.

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,221
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    What would a fantastic deal for Scotland look like? Us continuing to pay their pensions? Giving them a seat on the MPC? Other than allowing us to keep Faslane, what would they have going for them in such a negotiation?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    I agree with those Tories there who have no wish to be represented by an adulterer.
    I bet they wouldn't give a crap about such a thing in France though.
    I agree with them too. If a politician's wife can't trust him, why should the country?

    Hard to imagine what the equivalent of a Tory would be in France. OK there are some Poujadist types, but where are the gentlemen's clubs or the private schools? One of the Grande Ecoles spawns quite a few "Islington" types who many Tories would cross the road to avoid.

    What does cashout say on your Betfair screen though.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    What would a fantastic deal for Scotland look like? Us continuing to pay their pensions? Giving them a seat on the MPC? Other than allowing us to keep Faslane, what would they have going for them in such a negotiation?
    We're a big big big export market for them though I thought........
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    Not fantastically strong, but not nothing, and I'd hope we'd seek to be as reasonable as possible without disadvantaging ourselves too much.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,282
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    Not fantastically strong, but not nothing, and I'd hope we'd seek to be as reasonable as possible without disadvantaging ourselves too much.
    One big difference is that independence involves a transfer of sovereignty but Brexit does not. Most of the decisions are much more tangible and immediate.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    It's not really a surprise that Leave voters have a higher percentage going for Le Pen, it was also the case for Trump.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,282
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    I agree with those Tories there who have no wish to be represented by an adulterer.
    I bet they wouldn't give a crap about such a thing in France though.
    I agree with them too. If a politician's wife can't trust him, why should the country?

    Hard to imagine what the equivalent of a Tory would be in France. OK there are some Poujadist types, but where are the gentlemen's clubs or the private schools? One of the Grande Ecoles spawns quite a few "Islington" types who many Tories would cross the road to avoid.

    What does cashout say on your Betfair screen though.
    Last night Cyan was saying Le Pen was playing Macron like a fiddle over the appointment of the new FN leader. This morning he stood aside - http://www.politico.eu/article/national-front-would-be-leader-steps-aside-after-gas-chamber-comments/
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    I agree with those Tories there who have no wish to be represented by an adulterer.
    I bet they wouldn't give a crap about such a thing in France though.
    I agree with them too. If a politician's wife can't trust him, why should the country?

    Hard to imagine what the equivalent of a Tory would be in France. OK there are some Poujadist types, but where are the gentlemen's clubs or the private schools? One of the Grande Ecoles spawns quite a few "Islington" types who many Tories would cross the road to avoid.

    What does cashout say on your Betfair screen though.
    Mine says a much larger sum than I'm actually winning!!
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    JackW said:

    Is a debate scheduled between Macron and Le Pen ?

    Yes, TV debate on 3rd May.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    *Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,221
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    What would a fantastic deal for Scotland look like? Us continuing to pay their pensions? Giving them a seat on the MPC? Other than allowing us to keep Faslane, what would they have going for them in such a negotiation?
    We're a big big big export market for them though I thought........
    Do you mean the other way around? That is, we sell lots to them in the way the EU does to us? Well, I suppose we bailed out Ireland on similar grounds. I wonder if that bailout will get mentioned in the next few years?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    Pulpstar said:

    Cyan said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    I agree with those Tories there who have no wish to be represented by an adulterer.
    I bet they wouldn't give a crap about such a thing in France though.
    I agree with them too. If a politician's wife can't trust him, why should the country?

    Hard to imagine what the equivalent of a Tory would be in France. OK there are some Poujadist types, but where are the gentlemen's clubs or the private schools? One of the Grande Ecoles spawns quite a few "Islington" types who many Tories would cross the road to avoid.

    What does cashout say on your Betfair screen though.
    Last night Cyan was saying Le Pen was playing Macron like a fiddle over the appointment of the new FN leader. This morning he stood aside - http://www.politico.eu/article/national-front-would-be-leader-steps-aside-after-gas-chamber-comments/

    I struggle to see how having someone as president of France who can make a decision to appoint such a person in the first place is in the UK's interests.

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190
    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    How about the fact that she appointed a Holocaust denier to take over from her as the leader of the FN?

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    How about the fact that she appointed a Holocaust denier to take over from her as the leader of the FN?

    So that's what Rod's doing.....
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Is a debate scheduled between Macron and Le Pen ?

    Yes, TV debate on 3rd May.
    Thanks.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    I've been reading some papers by Serge Galam, the "father of sociophysics". He wrote a potboiler 14-page article presenting differential turnout as if it were something he'd come up with, saying little more than could be said in about two sentences, but it isn't unusual for academics to have gaps like that. His work on Trump and on the mechanics of how the distribution of mass opinion can change fast is much more interesting. Put it together with some more psychology and it could be dynamite. His main variables include one for unconscious prejudice, and how it influences people when they are talking about stuff in small groups in which opinion is roughly equally split. He has written about how Trump's "shocking statements" had a positive effect on this variable even when they lowered the measure of "support for what he's saying today". He has some insight.

    He predicted a Trump win and he thinks Le Pen has a good chance. The Eurasia Group risk consultancy puts the probability of a Le Pen win at 30%.

    What do people make of Jean-Francois Jalkh being appointed as NF leader and then stepping down? Her campaign must surely have considered the possible consequences of appointing him. I don't think the appointment did her any harm. Now he has had to be replaced so quickly, I'm not so sure. A lot of dogwhistling about Jewish influence is happening in France.

    Macron has basically said that Le Pen and the NF are the modern incarnation of the OAS.
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    ITMAITMA Posts: 9

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    But is this twisting of the truth - aka 'FAKE NEWS' - anything new when it comes to thread headers??
    I voted remain, not least because I despise Farage and would not be seen dead on the same side as him - but I am disgusted by the smear.
    (as of now since the vote is lost and the die is cast its clear to me we should leave the EU and if they insist on punishment beatings they can sod off)
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    I'm still wondering why lefties call MLP a 'fascist' - it colours their thinking. One criterium for being a fascist is to have lots of supporters attacking other political parties' supporters. This seems to be much more a characteristic of supporters of other political parties rather than the FN, Trump's Deplorables or even the EDL.

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    How about the fact that she appointed a Holocaust denier to take over from her as the leader of the FN?

    Please get your facts right (and this is from 2000 - 17 years ago).

    In comments unearthed by a journalist at La Croix newspaper and republished in Le Monde, Jalkh, an MEP, argued he was not a Holocaust denier but had spoken to a chemistry expert about Zyklon B, which was used in the extermination chambers.

    “I consider that from a technical standpoint it is impossible – and I stress, impossible – to use it in mass exterminations. Why? Because you need several days to decontaminate a space … where Zyklon B has been used.”
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,282
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/revealed-eu-expanding-scope-britains-brexit-bill-include-refugees/

    Europe is expanding yet further its demands for Britain’s Brexit financial settlement to include “political” commitments, such as the UK’s share of a £2.5bn fund to help refugees in Turkey, The Telegraph can disclose.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    She's more often being called a "racist" than a "fascist" in the left-wing opposition to her at the moment, unlike her father in 2002.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,520
    Obviously we want Macron because we want a successful France that is going to buy lots of our stuff and do all its dodgy financial dealings in London. Whether Macron will be able to deliver that success is very much open to question but his ideas are vastly superior to Le Pen's which are frankly nuts.

    The fact I have £50 on him did not influence these views at all.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,520

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/revealed-eu-expanding-scope-britains-brexit-bill-include-refugees/

    Europe is expanding yet further its demands for Britain’s Brexit financial settlement to include “political” commitments, such as the UK’s share of a £2.5bn fund to help refugees in Turkey, The Telegraph can disclose.

    Well good luck with that.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    We should wish to remain on good terms with Scotland, without rolling over to them. They should take a share of the national debt proportionate to their share of overall GDP. We would wish to have free trade and defence co-operation between both countries. It would make sense to have something similar to the Common Travel Area for Scottish citizens, but not for foreign nationals resident in Scotland.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FPT
    welshowl said: "What could beat Cardinal Sin of Manila."
    Sean_F said "Archbishop Worlock of Liverpool."

    I was baptized by Cannon Ball.
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    Not fantastically strong, but not nothing, and I'd hope we'd seek to be as reasonable as possible without disadvantaging ourselves too much.
    One big difference is that independence involves a transfer of sovereignty but Brexit does not. Most of the decisions are much more tangible and immediate.
    WHAT! :astonished:
    The whole point of Brexit is to transfer sovereignty back to Britain that had been acquired by the EU through our membership.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Marine Le Pen is more a Poujadiste than a Fascist.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Have any of the more serious players done any Kelly criterion analysis on laying Le Pen ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/28/revealed-eu-expanding-scope-britains-brexit-bill-include-refugees/

    Europe is expanding yet further its demands for Britain’s Brexit financial settlement to include “political” commitments, such as the UK’s share of a £2.5bn fund to help refugees in Turkey, The Telegraph can disclose.

    Yes, continually raising the price, which they cannot legally force on us, is really the way to reach a harmonious settlement. We may well be hit worse by any bad deal or no deal situation, but if they want a reasonable amount of money, and they say they do, they'll need to bend a bit.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    I'm still wondering why lefties call MLP a 'fascist' - it colours their thinking. One criterium for being a fascist is to have lots of supporters attacking other political parties' supporters. This seems to be much more a characteristic of supporters of other political parties rather than the FN, Trump's Deplorables or even the EDL.

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    How about the fact that she appointed a Holocaust denier to take over from her as the leader of the FN?

    Please get your facts right (and this is from 2000 - 17 years ago).

    In comments unearthed by a journalist at La Croix newspaper and republished in Le Monde, Jalkh, an MEP, argued he was not a Holocaust denier but had spoken to a chemistry expert about Zyklon B, which was used in the extermination chambers.

    “I consider that from a technical standpoint it is impossible – and I stress, impossible – to use it in mass exterminations. Why? Because you need several days to decontaminate a space … where Zyklon B has been used.”
    So "not a Holocaust denier but" looking for technical reasons why Zyklon B couldn't have been used.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zyklon_B
    "Holocaust deniers claim that Zyklon B gas was not used in the gas chambers..."
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    Yes, you are correct for a sub-sample of one at least!

    I was in this YouGov and I voted LePen because the collapse of the establishment in France will make Brexit negotiations more difficult. Chaos across the Channel would be very useful. OAnd one in the eye, as you rightly say, against the EU monolith.

    And again with this 'Right' canard. Her economic policies, like most people described as 'fascist' are far left.
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    ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 488

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    But 63% of LEAVE voters don't want Le Pen, and 'Britain' is misspelled.
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    *Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.

    Fascist - someone who wins an argument with a left-leaning person.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    How about the fact that she appointed a Holocaust denier to take over from her as the leader of the FN?

    Ah you mean more like the British Labour party or the NUS :)
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,380
    edited April 2017

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Actually, Mike, I almost never agree with ThreeQuidder but it's true that "who would be better for Britain?" is absolutely not the same as "who do you want?"

    I think those answering "Le Pen" to the question asked have a point to a degree... it may well be better for Britain to have a French President who is anti-EU in terms of negotiating more favourable Brexit terms.

    But it certainly doesn't mean people "want" that outcome. For some people, what is good for British interests and what they want are one and the same thing. But, for many, it's a relevant factor but not the only one.

    EDIT: Actually, I see your point about the whole headline. But I still think it's a bit misleading. Fairer would be "Who'd be best for Britain? YouGov find Leave voters say Le Pen".
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    DavidL said:

    Obviously we want Macron because we want a successful France that is going to buy lots of our stuff and do all its dodgy financial dealings in London. Whether Macron will be able to deliver that success is very much open to question but his ideas are vastly superior to Le Pen's which are frankly nuts.

    The fact I have £50 on him did not influence these views at all.

    I agree and my views are untainted by any vices :)
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Marine Le Pen is more a Poujadiste than a Fascist.

    I think an opportunity has been taken to paint leavers in an unfavourable light. .
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,282

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Actually, Mike, I almost never agree with ThreeQuidder but it's true that "who would be better for Britain?" is absolutely not the same as "who do you want?"
    Are you saying Leavers don't want what's best for Britain? A vicious slur!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited April 2017

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    But 63% of LEAVE voters don't want Le Pen, and 'Britain' is misspelled.
    That's how much remainers care about their country
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited April 2017

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Mike, you are simply wrong. The question does not ask Leave voters what they want, but what they think would be better for Britain,

    It is possible to believe that Le Pen might be 'better for Britain' - whatever that might mean - and still not want that outcome. I, for one, think that a Le Pen victory might well facilitate a better outcome for Britain in its negotiations with the EU, but still not want it to happen (because of both the greater long-term damage it would do to Europe and, potentially, Britain and because I simply don't want politicians who are that right wing attaining ascendancy within Western democracy).

    Clearly, thinking something might be better does not mean you want it, nor vice versa.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Actually, Mike, I almost never agree with ThreeQuidder but it's true that "who would be better for Britain?" is absolutely not the same as "who do you want?"

    I think those answering "Le Pen" to the question asked have a point to a degree... it may well be better for Britain to have a French President who is anti-EU in terms of negotiating more favourable Brexit terms.

    But it certainly doesn't mean people "want" that outcome. For some people, what is good for British interests and what they want are one and the same thing. But, for many, it's a relevant factor but not the only one.

    EDIT: Actually, I see your point about the whole headline. But I still think it's a bit misleading. Fairer would be "Who'd be best for Britain? YouGov find Leave voters say Le Pen".
    Incorrect. The "want" is totally in the context of the first sentence as is blindingly obvious.

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    1. Scotland leaves. They demanded 10% of our Embassies because they say that they've paid for them.

    2. The UK leaves the EU. Not only don't we get 1/27th of their embassies and missions and bits'n'bobs but they want us to pay for their Agencies to break leases.

    Both arguments can't be right.
    If we pay to leave the EU then Scotland must pay to leave the UK.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    On the face of it an alarming poll finding. But Macron is massively signed up to the European Project whereas Le Pen is avowedly not. Le Pen would be the one more likely to stop/slow EU integration.

    Not the same as supporting Le Pen;s policies across the board.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Labour may be at near-historic lows in the polls but Jeremy Corbyn’s inner circle is clinging stubbornly to the hope of an upset election win, inspired by other “outsiders” like Bernie Sanders and now Emmanuel Macron.

    According to a senior party official familiar with the leadership team’s electoral strategy, while Labour MPs are looking over their shoulders in seats once considered unassailable, Corbyn and his close aides believe a grass-roots insurgency can succeed against the well-oiled Conservative election machine.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-team-defies-gravity/
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    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Actually, Mike, I almost never agree with ThreeQuidder but it's true that "who would be better for Britain?" is absolutely not the same as "who do you want?"

    I think those answering "Le Pen" to the question asked have a point to a degree... it may well be better for Britain to have a French President who is anti-EU in terms of negotiating more favourable Brexit terms.

    But it certainly doesn't mean people "want" that outcome. For some people, what is good for British interests and what they want are one and the same thing. But, for many, it's a relevant factor but not the only one.

    EDIT: Actually, I see your point about the whole headline. But I still think it's a bit misleading. Fairer would be "Who'd be best for Britain? YouGov find Leave voters say Le Pen".
    Incorrect. The "want" is totally in the context of the first sentence as is blindingly obvious.

    I think we'll have to agree to disagree. I certainly don't think it merited swearing at ThreeQuidder. He's said worse. But you remain our host, so I guess that's your call!
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Just to say that French courts have ruled that it is legal to call Le Pen a fascist.

    http://en.rfi.fr/france/20140410-front-nationals-le-pen-can-be-called-fascist-court-rules
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    In actual fact, of course, nothing could be worse for Britain than a Le Pen victory. The EU would be totally paralysed, and that would make negotiating sensible terms on our withdrawal impossible. In addition, the EU economy would be badly hit, doing great damage to us.

    But whoever thought Leavers were logical?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    On the face of it an alarming poll finding. But Macron is massively signed up to the European Project whereas Le Pen is avowedly not. Le Pen would be the one more likely to stop/slow EU integration.

    Not the same as supporting Le Pen;s policies across the board.

    Theresa May has said many times that a strong EU is in the UK's best interests. It's one thing that I agree with her on.

    If Le Pen were to win, a recovery in Europe would be thrown into reverse and markets would dive. That is not in the UK's interests.

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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Actually, Mike, I almost never agree with ThreeQuidder but it's true that "who would be better for Britain?" is absolutely not the same as "who do you want?"

    I think those answering "Le Pen" to the question asked have a point to a degree... it may well be better for Britain to have a French President who is anti-EU in terms of negotiating more favourable Brexit terms.

    But it certainly doesn't mean people "want" that outcome. For some people, what is good for British interests and what they want are one and the same thing. But, for many, it's a relevant factor but not the only one.

    EDIT: Actually, I see your point about the whole headline. But I still think it's a bit misleading. Fairer would be "Who'd be best for Britain? YouGov find Leave voters say Le Pen".
    Incorrect. The "want" is totally in the context of the first sentence as is blindingly obvious.

    And you are blindingly wrong. It is a terrible question as it is open to totally different interpretations as to what is 'better'. Thus different people are answering different questions and you are comparing apples with oranges, something in all other contexts you would be railing against.

    You are simply wrong.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986

    Labour may be at near-historic lows in the polls but Jeremy Corbyn’s inner circle is clinging stubbornly to the hope of an upset election win, inspired by other “outsiders” like Bernie Sanders and now Emmanuel Macron.

    According to a senior party official familiar with the leadership team’s electoral strategy, while Labour MPs are looking over their shoulders in seats once considered unassailable, Corbyn and his close aides believe a grass-roots insurgency can succeed against the well-oiled Conservative election machine.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-team-defies-gravity/

    Corbyn has spent 40 years only talking to people who agree with him.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    We should wish to remain on good terms with Scotland, without rolling over to them. They should take a share of the national debt proportionate to their share of overall GDP. We would wish to have free trade and defence co-operation between both countries. It would make sense to have something similar to the Common Travel Area for Scottish citizens, but not for foreign nationals resident in Scotland.

    All of that sounds great, but the question was what size of majority would give Sturgeon a strong enough hand to change the deal?

    Once you realise the answer is zero, the nonsense of the GE is apparent.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mike Smithson is absolutely correct about Le Pen.

    Marine Le Pen waddles and quacks like a fascist and the fact that she is microscopically less odious than her father is little consolation.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    MTimT said:

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Mike, you are simply wrong. The question does not ask Leave voters what they want, but what they think would be better for Britain,

    It is possible to believe that Le Pen might be 'better for Britain' - whatever that might mean - and still not want that outcome. I, for one, think that a Le Pen victory might well facilitate a better outcome for Britain in its negotiations with the EU, but still not want it to happen (because of both the greater long-term damage it would do to Europe and, potentially, Britain and because I simply don't want politicians who are that right wing attaining ascendancy within Western democracy).

    Clearly, thinking something might be better does not mean you want it, nor vice versa.
    I think that is right - all the emphasis is on 'Better for Britain. I'd personally still say Macron but can see the argument for putting Le Pen. Sadly I feel there is still so much resentment among some at the EUREF result that is being directed at the voters. Any slur or smear is used - normally from the likes of Roger who derides them as plebeian and uncultured all the time. Sad because it undermines democracy which is something I do believe in despite my side losing the EUREF.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464

    *Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.

    Hard to say. Someone ought to ask her "when did you stop being a fascist?".

    Probably, no, she's not. She's more of a populist-nationalist. But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Disraeli said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    A question for the leavers.

    Lets assume a parallel (Fantasy right now) universe where the SNP had won the referendum.

    How strong would Sturgeon's hand be to make England, Wales and Northern Ireland bend to her will, to get a fantastic deal for Scotland.

    Not fantastically strong, but not nothing, and I'd hope we'd seek to be as reasonable as possible without disadvantaging ourselves too much.
    One big difference is that independence involves a transfer of sovereignty but Brexit does not. Most of the decisions are much more tangible and immediate.
    WHAT! :astonished:
    The whole point of Brexit is to transfer sovereignty back to Britain that had been acquired by the EU through our membership.
    Parliament was always sovereign - it just didn't feel like it, as the Government White Paper on Brexit said.
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    Theresa May has said many times that a strong EU is in the UK's best interests. It's one thing that I agree with her on.

    She's probably right on that. But, of course, she was a Remain voter so would have appeared in the majority in the 45/9 split, not the minority in the 6/37, had she been polled.

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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    On the face of it an alarming poll finding. But Macron is massively signed up to the European Project whereas Le Pen is avowedly not. Le Pen would be the one more likely to stop/slow EU integration.

    Not the same as supporting Le Pen;s policies across the board.

    Theresa May has said many times that a strong EU is in the UK's best interests. It's one thing that I agree with her on.

    If Le Pen were to win, a recovery in Europe would be thrown into reverse and markets would dive. That is not in the UK's interests.

    That is why the question is such a bad question. It is open to so many different interpretations as to what it means. Better in relation to what? On what timescale? For which "Britain"? and so on.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,576

    Labour may be at near-historic lows in the polls but Jeremy Corbyn’s inner circle is clinging stubbornly to the hope of an upset election win, inspired by other “outsiders” like Bernie Sanders and now Emmanuel Macron.

    According to a senior party official familiar with the leadership team’s electoral strategy, while Labour MPs are looking over their shoulders in seats once considered unassailable, Corbyn and his close aides believe a grass-roots insurgency can succeed against the well-oiled Conservative election machine.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-team-defies-gravity/

    Corbyn has spent 40 years only talking to people who agree with him.

    The only problem with Corbyn, Milne and co's theory is that there is no grassroots insurgency. It does not exist outside of momentum's meetings. Other than that minor point, the strategy is sound.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited April 2017
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    *Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.

    Fascist - someone who wins an argument with a left-leaning person.
    Fascist is a meaningless word nowadays in a political context, a bit like racism, when it is being applied to all sorts of non-Fascist people and groups.

    If you believed the left Trump is a fascist, Republicans are fascists, so are Tories, UKIP, May, Thatcher, Blair, Cameron, and I dare say if I looked hard enough I'd find examples of people like Nick Clegg being called fascists. If everyone is a fascists nobody is a fascist.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739

    *Is* she a fascist? That word gets bandied around a dreadful lot these days.

    Hard to say. Someone ought to ask her "when did you stop being a fascist?".

    Probably, no, she's not. She's more of a populist-nationalist. But she's more than happy to play to and to take the votes of fascists.
    Was her dad a fascist? Is the current leader of FN a fascist?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    edited April 2017
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Another great advert for Labour's inability to pay taxes imposed on voters.

    https://twitter.com/LivEchonews/status/857924208189472768
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Momentum is Everything!

    The Trend is Your Friend!

    @ScottyNational: News : Poll of Yes/No on 45%/55% showing huge change on 2014 Indy Ref result shows Indyref2 is the new 'will of the Scottish People' say SNP
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    felix said:

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    How about the fact that she appointed a Holocaust denier to take over from her as the leader of the FN?

    Ah you mean more like the British Labour party or the NUS :)
    Two or Three wrongs
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson is absolutely correct about Le Pen.

    Marine Le Pen waddles and quacks like a fascist and the fact that she is microscopically less odious than her father is little consolation.

    Well, only if you divorce the word 'fascist' from its historical orgins. To take the most obvious point, one of the absolute key features of fascism was military triumphalism and the militarisation of youth - all those rallies with rows of clean-cut youths and pretty girls in uniform saluting the Great Leader. There's none of that sort of thing in Le Pen, is there? Also fascism was partly about co-operation between corrupt big business and the authoritarian state. Again, little sign of that in Le Pen.

    Of course, if the word 'fascist' is reduced to just meaning odious, then, yes, it's a fair description.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    MTimT said:

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Actually, Mike, I almost never agree with ThreeQuidder but it's true that "who would be better for Britain?" is absolutely not the same as "who do you want?"

    I think those answering "Le Pen" to the question asked have a point to a degree... it may well be better for Britain to have a French President who is anti-EU in terms of negotiating more favourable Brexit terms.

    But it certainly doesn't mean people "want" that outcome. For some people, what is good for British interests and what they want are one and the same thing. But, for many, it's a relevant factor but not the only one.

    EDIT: Actually, I see your point about the whole headline. But I still think it's a bit misleading. Fairer would be "Who'd be best for Britain? YouGov find Leave voters say Le Pen".
    Incorrect. The "want" is totally in the context of the first sentence as is blindingly obvious.

    And you are blindingly wrong. It is a terrible question as it is open to totally different interpretations as to what is 'better'. Thus different people are answering different questions and you are comparing apples with oranges, something in all other contexts you would be railing against.

    You are simply wrong.
    The problem here is that the original question is so poor that someone answering the poll (including me, in this case) will project a variety of reasons on to my answer.

    Then Mike comes along and overlays my prejudices with his own and pulls out a single interpretation of the original (poor) question.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    Labour may be at near-historic lows in the polls but Jeremy Corbyn’s inner circle is clinging stubbornly to the hope of an upset election win, inspired by other “outsiders” like Bernie Sanders and now Emmanuel Macron.

    According to a senior party official familiar with the leadership team’s electoral strategy, while Labour MPs are looking over their shoulders in seats once considered unassailable, Corbyn and his close aides believe a grass-roots insurgency can succeed against the well-oiled Conservative election machine.

    http://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-team-defies-gravity/

    Corbyn has spent 40 years only talking to people who agree with him.

    The only problem with Corbyn, Milne and co's theory is that there is no grassroots insurgency. It does not exist outside of momentum's meetings. Other than that minor point, the strategy is sound.
    Don't forget the old tw@tter....
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    GeoffM said:

    MTimT said:

    And you are blindingly wrong. It is a terrible question as it is open to totally different interpretations as to what is 'better'. Thus different people are answering different questions and you are comparing apples with oranges, something in all other contexts you would be railing against.
    You are simply wrong.

    The problem here is that the original question is so poor that someone answering the poll (including me, in this case) will project a variety of reasons on to my answer.
    Then Mike comes along and overlays my prejudices with his own and pulls out a single interpretation of the original (poor) question.
    Indeed - as was the question in the infamous Referendum.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Scott_P said:
    That weird PR stunt of Le Pen stepping down is looking more and more damaging.
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    prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 441
    I agree with ThreeQuidder.

    Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want. I detest Marine Le Pen and would never vote for her in a million years. If asked which is better for France or which I want would go for Macron every time. But Macron is a Europhile who wants to take a hard line over Brexit including possibly revising the Le Touquet agreement which he sees as unfair to France. Le Pen on the other hand is a strong supporter of Brexit and appears to want a good deal for the UK. Given their respective positions there is certainly a case to be made that Le Pen would be better for Britain. If I'd been asked I might have said that she was. But that doesn't mean I want her. I don't. Indeed, if I did say that I thought Le Pen was better for Britain, I would regard it as seriously libellous if someone said that meant I wanted her. I want the best deal for Britain but not at any cost. And Le Pen as president of France is far too high a cost.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Well, only if you divorce the word 'fascist' from its historical orgins. To take the most obvious point, one of the absolute key features of fascism was military triumphalism and the militarisation of youth - all those rallies with rows of clean-cut youths and pretty girls in uniform saluting the Great Leader. There's none of that sort of thing in Le Pen, is there? Also fascism was partly about co-operation between corrupt big business and the authoritarian state. Again, little sign of that in Le Pen.

    Of course, if the word 'fascist' is reduced to just meaning odious, then, yes, it's a fair description.

    Well said.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    I did. The headline is still a logical failure. The word you were looking for is "think", and properly the phrase you are looking for is "think neither" or perhaps "think it doesn't matter".
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Mike Smithson is absolutely correct about Le Pen.

    Marine Le Pen waddles and quacks like a fascist and the fact that she is microscopically less odious than her father is little consolation.

    Well, only if you divorce the word 'fascist' from its historical orgins. To take the most obvious point, one of the absolute key features of fascism was military triumphalism and the militarisation of youth - all those rallies with rows of clean-cut youths and pretty girls in uniform saluting the Great Leader. There's none of that sort of thing in Le Pen, is there? Also fascism was partly about co-operation between corrupt big business and the authoritarian state. Again, little sign of that in Le Pen.

    Of course, if the word 'fascist' is reduced to just meaning odious, then, yes, it's a fair description.
    Apologies for abandoning the field but I'm off to collect Mrs JackW from a Paris trip ....

    I'm may be some time .... :sunglasses:
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,855
    15% of Lib Dems want the Facist too! I wonder what their views on homosexual sex are?

    And 15% of SNP voters. 30% of Men, 30% of the 65+......

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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    On a pure Brexit front, Le Pen would be better - it would sow deep division among France and Germany over the direction of the EU, at which point Theresa May would have a win-win choice. Team up with Le Pen which gives much more clout in negotiations than Britain alone, especially as they are largely looking for the same things. Or, try and rebuild relations with Germany as a moderate partner who can still work well with the EU, at the price of getting our cake and eating it too.

    Of course, on nearly every other category Macron is a far better choice for Britain. He is certainly no anglophobe and while he will be tough in negotiations, aligned with Merkel, I don't forsee relations worsening with France with him at the helm. Also the chaos in France after a Le Pen victory is unlikely to be good for their economy, hence the eurozone, and Europe generally. If Europe is having a bad time that usually means we will soon too.

    I'd say Macron is better overall but can see the logic behind saying Le Pen is better for Britain, at least when it comes to Brexit negotiations. And obviously, the reason to support Macron is not because he's better for Britain but because the FN in power would be a terrible shame for France.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028

    I agree with ThreeQuidder.
    Asking someone which is better for Britain is not the same as asking which they want.

    The r^2 correlation on those two questions would be 0.95+
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    PClipp said:

    GeoffM said:

    MTimT said:

    And you are blindingly wrong. It is a terrible question as it is open to totally different interpretations as to what is 'better'. Thus different people are answering different questions and you are comparing apples with oranges, something in all other contexts you would be railing against.
    You are simply wrong.

    The problem here is that the original question is so poor that someone answering the poll (including me, in this case) will project a variety of reasons on to my answer.
    Then Mike comes along and overlays my prejudices with his own and pulls out a single interpretation of the original (poor) question.
    Indeed - as was the question in the infamous Referendum.
    What 'infamous Referendum'?

    The Anschluss referendum voting paper was by far my favourite:

    https://austria-forum.org/attach/AEIOU/Anschluss/Bilder_zum_Anschluss/scaled-368x270-Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    Just a guess, but I imagine the Leavers plumping for Le Pen just enjoy seeing the Establishment get poked in the eye....

    And I'd question whether Le Pen is really a "fascist"? Hard Right yes. Far Right? Possibly. But fascist? I'd need to be persuaded of that....

    How about the fact that she appointed a Holocaust denier to take over from her as the leader of the FN?

    Ah you mean more like the British Labour party or the NUS :)
    Two or Three wrongs
    Oh of course.
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    ITMAITMA Posts: 9
    felix said:

    MTimT said:

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Mike, you are simply wrong. The question does not ask Leave voters what they want, but what they think would be better for Britain,

    It is possible to believe that Le Pen might be 'better for Britain' - whatever that might mean - and still not want that outcome. I, for one, think that a Le Pen victory might well facilitate a better outcome for Britain in its negotiations with the EU, but still not want it to happen (because of both the greater long-term damage it would do to Europe and, potentially, Britain and because I simply don't want politicians who are that right wing attaining ascendancy within Western democracy).

    Clearly, thinking something might be better does not mean you want it, nor vice versa.
    I think that is right - all the emphasis is on 'Better for Britain. I'd personally still say Macron but can see the argument for putting Le Pen. Sadly I feel there is still so much resentment among some at the EUREF result that is being directed at the voters. Any slur or smear is used - normally from the likes of Roger who derides them as plebeian and uncultured all the time. Sad because it undermines democracy which is something I do believe in despite my side losing the EUREF.
    I agree. Mike Smithson is setting a miserable example in pursuing this strand of opinion and stoking up uncalled for resentment. Its just the latest in a sad little line of anti brexiteer propaganda.

    Furthermore it makes me really angry as it is making me use up a self imposed limit on posting (since there is so much like rubbish posted that you could spend all day refuting it)
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,384

    I'm still wondering why lefties call MLP a 'fascist' - it colours their thinking. One criterium for being a fascist is to have lots of supporters attacking other political parties' supporters.

    Who defines fascism by that criterium? Apart from you of course.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Neither the polling, nor the site's Leavers' reaction to it, comes as a surprise. Who would have thought that those susceptible to xenophobic lies would hope that a close ally would be led by a fascist?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Logic fail in the headline: "want" is totally unjustified by the data, which in any case has a majority of Leave voters saying "meh".

    Bollocks. Read the whole headline.

    Who’d be best for Britian – Macron or Le Pen. YouGov finds LEAVE voters want the fascist
    Actually, Mike, I almost never agree with ThreeQuidder but it's true that "who would be better for Britain?" is absolutely not the same as "who do you want?"

    I think those answering "Le Pen" to the question asked have a point to a degree... it may well be better for Britain to have a French President who is anti-EU in terms of negotiating more favourable Brexit terms.

    But it certainly doesn't mean people "want" that outcome. For some people, what is good for British interests and what they want are one and the same thing. But, for many, it's a relevant factor but not the only one.

    EDIT: Actually, I see your point about the whole headline. But I still think it's a bit misleading. Fairer would be "Who'd be best for Britain? YouGov find Leave voters say Le Pen".
    Incorrect. The "want" is totally in the context of the first sentence as is blindingly obvious.

    That might be what you meant, but it's not what you said. And why no recognition that a majority of Leave voters didn't answer "Le Pen"?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,533
    There was a funny article about it yesterday in The Times. Along the lines of "...welcomed by jazz hands, which, despite seeming so, is not an activity designed to make the person doing it look stupid..."
This discussion has been closed.