politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than a week after Mrs. May’s GE2017 announcement YouGov’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than a week after Mrs. May’s GE2017 announcement YouGov’s Brexit “right/wrong” tracker moves to level-pegging
Given the overwhelming importance of the Brexit negotiations in Mrs May’s stated reason for the early General Election then it is important to continue to follow how voters now view that decision last June.
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Something Corbyn wont need to worry about finding time for.
But the emphasis is on (1) respecting the vote and, consequently, (2) delivering the best Brexit she can in the context of the inferred instructions the nation's given her. Most Tory Remainers (like me) might still regret the original decision but support the strategy that's been taken given the decision was what it was.
http://www.wuggle.co.uk/trends/keep-calm/womens/standard/keep-calm-i-m-in-charge-ladies-t-shirts.html
Even if you want Labour to win, you know it's never going to happen under Jezz. Theresa seems harmless enough, so just vote Tory to humiliate him and get rid - a clean slate for next time. We have the bizarre paradox whereby voting Tory will actually help Labour (albeit perhaps not in the immediate short term). I can see no flaw in my reasoning.
We would then be left with Abbott and Thornberry as the only potential replacements!
This is a general election, historically decided on 3 items:
1. How's the economy doing?
2. Who do I think should be PM?
3. Which party has got it's s**t together?
The large Conservative lead over Labour is based on these factors, not Brexit.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/04/a-tory-revival-and-a-yet-more-polarised-scotland/
Suspect it's photoshopped and fake but you can't tell nowadays
There will be those who don't care that much (I remember the days of Mike posting polls illustrating that pre-referendum - it's certainly shot up the agenda, but the NHS and economy haven't gone away).
There will be those who see it as wrong but inevitable, and just want the thing done with minimum fuss and pain (ideally by someone competent and businesslike).
And there will be those who care about it quite deeply but recognise that there's not much they can do in their constituency - in Lab/Con marginals, the big players aren't offering what you want, so you either cast a protest vote or hold your nose and decide who's least worst.
It also either covers her arse in case of an economically hairy couple of years post-Brexit (the voters voted for it, it's their fault not hers) or gets her off the hook entirely and gives the economy a nice boost.
And if you thought I was being snarky about your persistence with the 'MLP can make it' line, don't get me wrong. I really enjoyed your contributions last nite and was sufficiently inclined to share your view to hedge my Macron bets. It only cost a few quid, and nobody ever went poor locking in a profit.
As for voting this time, the Corbyn cult will pass so traditional Labour voters like me can feel free to do whatever they like and wait for sanity to return in due course. My local MP is Brexit-supporter John Cryer, so I'll be giving him a miss this time round. With a 15,000 majority, I doubt he'll notice, but what else can you do?
Thanks again for all your excellent contributions, past and present.
PtP
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/24/corbyn-may-farron-sturgeon?page=with:block-58fddd4ee4b0e1f174d40692#block-58fddd4ee4b0e1f174d40692
Can't find any link to data tables yet.
A long-term trend would be worth commenting on. The remarkable and interesting thing with this tracker is just how static public opinion is.
I AM NOT ALONE IN THE TORY PARTY
Nominations must be in by May 11th.
Tories on 32% amongst remainers ?
Or 32% of the Tory vote is remainers ?
I mean rather than a PLP split, a new party of the dispossessed
She has a 15k+ majority and although it is a northern, working-class, Brexity seat (all of which point to a larger-than-average swing), it'd still take a net 17% swing for Con to take it from third.
I don't think she has any great local following (it's one which neighbours my Association's constituencies) but I don't think she's as big a negative as, say, Mary Creagh is.
We are all leavers now - not really an issue any more to many.
ParistondaParistonda Posts: 914
2:38PM
SirNorfolkPassmore said:
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NickPalmer said:
SirNorfolkPassmore said:
There's actually nothing in it for employed people either, as bank holidays typically count towards holiday entitlement in the small print of the employment contract. Indeed, they are somewhat worse than normal holiday entitlement as you typically have to take the actual day rather than being able to choose.
What it actually means is losing a day off your summer holiday in Florida in exchange for the opportunity to spend St David's Day (1 March) freezing your nuts off on your allotment (I assume that's what Jez wants).
Is that actually correct? I've never worked anywhere that counted public holidays against annual leave. The closest they come in my experience is that you may be required to take leave over the Xmas-NY bridge so they can shut the place down. But perhaps my experience in untypical - is there an authoritative link?
I'm not, by the way, arguing that it's a magical vote-winner, just querying Sir Norfolk's assertion.
Here's the link-y for you:
https://www.gov.uk/holiday-entitlement-rights/entitlement
All this says is that employers can count bank holidays as part of statutory leave of course, not that they have to. You can draft a contract as you like so long as it remains legal. In practice, however, most do include bank holidays against statutory leave. Indeed, you've got a generous employer if you've got 28 days (the statutory minimum) PLUS bank holidays.
My appraisal of it (to be clear I don't think it's going to make a difference overall, just that it's a step vaguely in a correct direction) is assuming they would ensure the extra days are in addition to current leave entitlements. If not then as you say, it would actually be worse than current arrangement.
I also get the argument that 4 spread out days would be better, and that 4 is too many. But if the aim is to foster a bit of union pride, you gotta work with what you have. Perhaps a more sensible alternative would be 1 additional British day, but hard to find a day that is simultaneously uncontraversial while not being bland or artificial. Magna Carta day perhaps?
Anyway I have probably attributed too much planning behind this policy to Labour, it's probably just a 1 day news headline as others have said.
It will present an alternative, he says. It would make the country work for the many not the few.
It will end the public sector pay cap that disrespects public servants.
It will end the need for food banks.
He says the Tories are trying to use Brexit to turn the UK into a low-wage tax haven.
Labour will put jobs, standards and human rights first in the Brexit talks, he says.
I can't help but think it might not be !
And what is the flow the other way.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4439480/Polls-underestimating-Tory-support.html
http://iaindale.com/posts/2017/04/19/general-election-2017-seat-by-seat-predictions-predictions-so-far
Con 48% (+2)
Lab 27% (+2)
LD 10% (-1)
UKIP 7% (-1)
Greens 3% (-1)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/24/corbyn-may-farron-sturgeon?page=with:block-58fddd4ee4b0e1f174d40692#block-58fddd4ee4b0e1f174d40692
Bad news for Norman:
'I’d say Norman Lamb was vulnerable, but he’s still incredibly popular and respected. His personal vote will carry him through.'
Kiss of death for Clive:
Sitting MP: Clive Lewis
Prediction: Labour hold
If you've piled on the Tory Scottish borders, look away now...
From the most recent YouGov (would have used ICM but neither recent poll has tables up yet), the Remain vote splits:
Lab 36
Con 27
LD 23
UKIP 0
The Leave vote is
Con 70
Lab 12
UKIP 10
LD 2
LAB 141
L DEM 11
UKIP 0
GREEN 1
I can recall 1945, and my mother telling her sister that my father, who still away in the RAF, wanted her to vote for Ray Gunter, the local Labour candidate, and she didn’t want to! So everything since then. Done everything; leafletter, canvasser, knocker-up, counting agent, Agent, and of course every-time voter Everything except actually being a candidate!
Had YouGov asked the same question in terms of whether Corbyn should stay following the biggest general election defeat in the party's history (well below the 1931 vote share) then that 20% would be down to 15% or 10%.
I cannot see Corbyn remaining leader beyond the next couple of months. That provides a ray of light at the end of a very dark tunnel.
No to a second 'deal' referendum - 61%
Immigration/autonomy prioritised over single market/some eu jurisdiction - 54%
I have the following bounds for the Tory vote to change thus far
+2.86 Hornsey
+18.51 Boston Skegness.
But I have UNS split by leave/remain.
I might put together a regional calculator - if the Tories are down in London, that is great news for their chances in Dagenham
Also, you could argue that losing heavily makes it harder for the Corbynites because the MEPs will be a higher proportion and he got no support at all from that quarter.
Move on, Mr Smithson - you lost.
If elected next Thursday, he can tell Labour that he stands down on Friday. Applications open immediately and close on Sunday.
NEC select candidate on Monday/Thursday 9th. Nominations close on Thursday 11th IIRC
www.burnhamformayor.co.uk/parliamentary_candidate_for_leigh