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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    I'm sure its been pointed out - but all the data is within MOE of 45 for 'Right' and 43 for 'wrong'. OGH will be giving the Daily Mail's reporting of polls a good name yet......
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990
    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago

    Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
    Crossland, Crossman, Castle and Mason. WTF happened to this party?
    Gordon Brown happened.

    When Labour came to power in 1997, they still had big beasts: Blair, Brown, Reid, Blunkett, Cook, Prescott, Mowlam, Straw, Dewar - for example. By 2010, they didn't. Nor did they have anything like the same quality coming through the next generation.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963

    Yorkcity said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Another poll with Tories sub 50 and only 21 point lead....Feedback from week 1 of the campaign...Must try harder.

    You mean engage second gear? They have barely started yet. All the damage to date has been self inflicted by Corbyn.
    The Tories are just observing one of Napoleon's maxims. Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.
    On that basis May can probably go for another extended walking holiday.
    True she does not need to do anything until 9th June.Trying to make out there is the chance of a coalition between the other parties looks a bit sad.
    On which topic, Labour has gone very quiet about debates, which might have been a tricky topic for May.
    Perhaps they saw Marr hammering Corbyn on Trident and realised they don't want debates either!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    The Communist party has backed Labour.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.

    And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.

    I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
    My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.

    If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK

    Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
    But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
    With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
    Not if there is the evidence to back it up!
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.

    And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.

    I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
    My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.

    If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK

    Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
    But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
    With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
    Not if there is the evidence to back it up!
    You are being silly now
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    In case people lost the link, list of Lab majorities.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Merseyrail talks collapse - more strike dates to be announced
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963

    I'm sure its been pointed out - but all the data is within MOE of 45 for 'Right' and 43 for 'wrong'. OGH will be giving the Daily Mail's reporting of polls a good name yet......

    OGH 'forgets' the basic rules of reporting polls when it suits. This tracker is interesting precisely because of its lack of movement.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Oh look! A constructive devolution suggestion from the Scottish Government Trades Union movement:

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15241120.Union_leaders_call_on_Theresa_May_to_allow_Holyrood_a__bespoke__immigration_policy/?ref=mr&lp=7

    See, that wasn't difficult. Who knows, the SNP might suggest something constructive over the 'rape clause' yet, rather than just whine about it. I'm not holding my breath.....
  • marke09 said:

    Merseyrail talks collapse - more strike dates to be announced

    Wonder if the conservatives will outlaw strikes in important infrastructure industries
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.

    And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.

    I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
    My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.

    If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK

    Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
    But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
    With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
    Not if there is the evidence to back it up!
    You are being silly now
    There is no point in saying it if there is no evidence! I am suggesting that there is such evidence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago

    Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
    Crossland, Crossman, Castle and Mason. WTF happened to this party?
    Gordon Brown happened.

    When Labour came to power in 1997, they still had big beasts: Blair, Brown, Reid, Blunkett, Cook, Prescott, Mowlam, Straw, Dewar - for example. By 2010, they didn't. Nor did they have anything like the same quality coming through the next generation.
    A bit simplistic to blame the whole thing on one man? There is a distinct lack of talent across the political spectrum, reflecting the rise of the student politico-lobbyist-Spad generation of nothing-but-politics careerists and the corresponding decline in successful businesspeople, lawyers, farmers and trade unionists deciding to go into politics in middle-age.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448

    While movements of =< 2 % are well within MOE and probably not worth the oxygen ...

    ICM's last polls

    Con 48% Lab 27% LD 10% April 24th
    Con 46% Lab 25% LibDem 11% April 19th (after announcement)
    Con 44% Labour 26% LD 10% April 18th (all fieldwork collected before announcement)

    I might have missed something, but the only non-MOE change there is ...

    The scientist in me is also telling you that 2 data points do not make a trend.

    Have we had a new ICM poll?
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.

    And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.

    I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
    My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.

    If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK

    Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
    But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
    With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
    Not if there is the evidence to back it up!
    You are being silly now
    There is no point in saying it if there is no evidence! I am suggesting that there is such evidence.
    Whatever
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.

    And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.

    I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
    My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.

    If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK

    Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
    But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
    With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
    Not if there is the evidence to back it up!
    Have you seen the polling on the election decision? People know May changed her mind. Some of them think it was for base motives, some for noble ones. Some think she lied. Yet they overwhelmingly support the decision.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    The Welsh subsample from the ICM poll today is amusing (unless you're Welsh Labour).

    We get the Wales poll tonight at 6.00pm and it is rumoured to be a blood bath for labour
    Given the Tories were stronger in Wales anyway, what sort of level would be on the level of that Scottish poll
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    GIN1138 said:

    While movements of =< 2 % are well within MOE and probably not worth the oxygen ...

    ICM's last polls

    Con 48% Lab 27% LD 10% April 24th
    Con 46% Lab 25% LibDem 11% April 19th (after announcement)
    Con 44% Labour 26% LD 10% April 18th (all fieldwork collected before announcement)

    I might have missed something, but the only non-MOE change there is ...

    The scientist in me is also telling you that 2 data points do not make a trend.

    Have we had a new ICM poll?
    Have just had a look at Mike's Twitter and here's the answer

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856480887067873280

    Does ICM still do phone polls?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jeremy Corbyn is in Scotland telling voters to reject the "vicious Conservatives".
  • kle4 said:

    The Welsh subsample from the ICM poll today is amusing (unless you're Welsh Labour).

    We get the Wales poll tonight at 6.00pm and it is rumoured to be a blood bath for labour
    Given the Tories were stronger in Wales anyway, what sort of level would be on the level of that Scottish poll
    It was said it was worse for labour than Scotland but I suggest we wait a couple of hours for the poll itself
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    AndyJS said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is in Scotland telling voters to reject the "vicious Conservatives".

    The combination of anti-Tory and anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland will squeeze Labour down to nothing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    AndyJS said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is in Scotland telling voters to reject the "vicious Conservatives".

    I'm sure alot of them will (Though perhaps less than in 2015)

    But how does that help Labour ?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    this was the last Welsh political barometer poll taken in January

    Labour 33% (-2)
    Conservative 28% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru 13% (no change)
    UKIP 13% (-1)
    Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
    Others 2% (-1)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2017
    Labour 4/7 Vauxhall (Info purposes not a bet suggestion)

    UKIP 12/1 Dagenham (It seems UKIP are running despite the Con being a Leaver... not so sure about this )

    Others may spot value

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election-_-_-constituency-betting
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Election Data‏ @election_data

    Tories leading Labour by 10% in Wales, equal to losing 10 seats:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @AndrewCooper__: @martinboon @ICMResearch @guardian @Conservatives This pattern - huge swings to Tories in Labour (inc *safe*) seats (& slight slippage in safe Tory seats) - is consistent with other data

    The Tories losing share in safe seats is great news for them. My calc has them on 80% in South Holland, best for them those votes go elsewhere.
    It's very unusual for a Conservative candidate to get more than about 68% in any constituency no matter how safe it is, and IMO that's likely to continue at this election. Therefore they won't get much of an increase in the seats where they're already near that level like Maidenhead and Beaconsfield. As you say, that means they must be doing better elsewhere.
    That's like the zero-bound issue we had with the Lib Dems last time which suggested that they simply couldn't keep as many of their seats as was expected. Why do the Tories have such an upper bound, and is there a structural reason why is it lower than the Labour upper bound (cf Liverpool Walton, East Ham etc)
    My explanation: very safe Conserative seats are less tribal than very safe Labour seats. Maidenhead and Beaconsfield have more left-wing voters than Liverpool Walton and Bootle have (economically) right-wing voters. [Plenty of social conservatives in those two seats of course].
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652

    AndyJS said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is in Scotland telling voters to reject the "vicious Conservatives".

    The combination of anti-Tory and anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland will squeeze Labour down to nothing.
    He's thick, just plain thick isn't he.

    Where are the Lab-Con marginals in Scotland ?
    It is a one seat strategy, and Labour aren't at the races in that seat.

    How does this message help them in left leaning Glasgow. The man is just utterly inept.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Random thought - I wonder if a small part of May's appeal to the older demographic is she's a politician who clearly doesn't dye her hair - its the colour nature intended. Not something that can be said of many other leading female politicians (and almost certainly a significant chunk of male ones too). What other female politicians in their late fifties/early sixties can say the same (or indeed younger ones whose hair has miraculously changed colour over the years)? Subliminal authenticity?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    ToryJim said:
    When was the last time the Tories won an election in Wales?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    justin124 said:

    It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago

    Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
    Yes but they were as split on everything as today.However Wilson had that common touch with the pipe and coat even though it was total bollox a bit like May saying she is for the workers on boards.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    GIN1138 said:

    ToryJim said:
    When was the last time the Tories won an election in Wales?
    2009 Euros. Before that probably about the time of the Civil War.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    GIN1138 said:

    ToryJim said:
    When was the last time the Tories won an election in Wales?
    1922 I believe ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Is this the poll that is not coming out until 6pm?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago

    Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
    Crossland, Crossman, Castle and Mason. WTF happened to this party?
    Gordon Brown happened.

    When Labour came to power in 1997, they still had big beasts: Blair, Brown, Reid, Blunkett, Cook, Prescott, Mowlam, Straw, Dewar - for example. By 2010, they didn't. Nor did they have anything like the same quality coming through the next generation.
    A bit simplistic to blame the whole thing on one man? There is a distinct lack of talent across the political spectrum, reflecting the rise of the student politico-lobbyist-Spad generation of nothing-but-politics careerists and the corresponding decline in successful businesspeople, lawyers, farmers and trade unionists deciding to go into politics in middle-age.
    Too true. The best leader the Tories never had (Ken Clarke) is over 75. Denis Healey (the best leader Labour never had) died at 98 in 2015.

    But of course, voters rate politicians lower than estate agents. Maybe they get the politicians they deserve? Rather a tricky vicious circle.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Corbyn effect reaches Wales.

    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-04-24/shock-poll-suggests-tories-ahead-in-wales/

    Tories on 40% - ten point lead over Labour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:
    Following OGH and Peter Hitchens (who rips off Enoch with his metaphor I believe)

    "This menace has been worrying the Cabinet for some months, as it has become clear it will not go away. And it is a far better explanation of the Prime Minister’s change of heart than her rather weird and incoherent speech in Downing Street. I happen to think she is a naturally truthful person and meant what she said when she previously declared several times that she was going to stay on till 2020.
    But the expenses allegations, which started as a cloud on the horizon no bigger than a man’s hand, have grown and grown. I suspect her advisers have been telling her she cannot risk them coming into the open late in a Parliament when, perhaps, the economy is not doing well, or EU negotiations are going badly or Labour has a new leader."

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2017/04/peter-hitchens-why-a-snap-election-ask-the-30-tories-facing-criminal-charges.html

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    CON is +13 on 2015 % on those Welsh figures.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    While movements of =< 2 % are well within MOE and probably not worth the oxygen ...

    ICM's last polls

    Con 48% Lab 27% LD 10% April 24th
    Con 46% Lab 25% LibDem 11% April 19th (after announcement)
    Con 44% Labour 26% LD 10% April 18th (all fieldwork collected before announcement)

    I might have missed something, but the only non-MOE change there is ...

    The scientist in me is also telling you that 2 data points do not make a trend.

    Have we had a new ICM poll?
    Have just had a look at Mike's Twitter and here's the answer

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/856480887067873280

    Does ICM still do phone polls?
    If the Tories are up 2 and Labour are up 1 how is the lead the same?
  • Random thought - I wonder if a small part of May's appeal to the older demographic is she's a politician who clearly doesn't dye her hair - its the colour nature intended. Not something that can be said of many other leading female politicians (and almost certainly a significant chunk of male ones too). What other female politicians in their late fifties/early sixties can say the same (or indeed younger ones whose hair has miraculously changed colour over the years)? Subliminal authenticity?

    Was it Gerhard Schroder that threatened to sue a journo when they asked if he colored his hair?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,958
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    justin124 said:

    It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago

    Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
    Crossland, Crossman, Castle and Mason. WTF happened to this party?
    Gordon Brown happened.

    When Labour came to power in 1997, they still had big beasts: Blair, Brown, Reid, Blunkett, Cook, Prescott, Mowlam, Straw, Dewar - for example. By 2010, they didn't. Nor did they have anything like the same quality coming through the next generation.
    A bit simplistic to blame the whole thing on one man? There is a distinct lack of talent across the political spectrum, reflecting the rise of the student politico-lobbyist-Spad generation of nothing-but-politics careerists and the corresponding decline in successful businesspeople, lawyers, farmers and trade unionists deciding to go into politics in middle-age.
    Read some of the biographies of Brown's contemporaries within Labour. He and his minions (inc. one Ed Balls) would destroy anyone who they saw as a rival within the party to Brown.

    They saw off an entire generation of potential leaders, and left us with the likes of ... Ed Miliband.

    Labour needs new blood just at the time the electorate are going to prevent them getting a transfusion.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @CJTerry: Labour has (so far) never lost a general election in Wales during the period of universal suffrage, btw.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    I cant see Ynys Mon going back to the Cons prob Plaid
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited April 2017
    ToryJim said:
    Wow! On stilts. Labour are going to get utterly trashed. There's something truly cultural going on here - not merely political.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.

    And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.

    I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
    My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.

    If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK

    Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
    But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
    With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
    Not if there is the evidence to back it up!
    You are being silly now
    There is no point in saying it if there is no evidence! I am suggesting that there is such evidence.
    Why not try putting it in a way which is short, simple and which will cut through and show it here?

    Calling her a liar and inviting the public to smack my bitch up (to borrow your language) will otherwise just tie into a view of Corbyn and his acolytes which it appears the public already has.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    What is the medical term for dying of popcorn overdose?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Was trying to work out the Labour campaign strategy.

    I think the best analogy would be the Red Wedding.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Someone was asking whether 25% was Labour's floor the other day.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990
    Scott_P said:

    @CJTerry: Labour has (so far) never lost a general election in Wales during the period of universal suffrage, btw.

    Never mind universal suffrage (i.e. 1929), the Tories have never won once since the days of public ballots have they? IIRC, the last general election the Tories won in Wales was 1859.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    The Scottish Liberal Democrat leader was doing a photo-op at a farm in Kelty, Fife last week when one of the rams took a dislike to him and charged. Thankfully, Mr Rennie sits next to the SNP backbenchers at Holyrood so he has experience of dealing with sheep.

    https://stephendaisley.com/2017/04/24/rennies-ram-raid-raised-a-laugh-but-his-lib-dems-must-be-taken-seriously/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Cardiff West I make the deepest Tory gain on those numbers.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897

    What is the medical term for dying of popcorn overdose?

    Disconpopulation
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Meanwhile...

    Jeremy Corbyn MP‏Verified account
    @jeremycorbyn

    Week one of our #GE2017 campaign got off to a flying start. Join us for week two → http://www.labour.org.uk/volunteering
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    AndyJS said:
    That is quite something. Pile in on Ynys Mon?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Cardiff West and Yns Mon go Tory.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990

    CON is +13 on 2015 % on those Welsh figures.

    10% swing. Would make Swansea West a knife-edge marginal if UNS applied.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.

    And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.

    I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
    My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.

    If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK

    Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
    But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
    With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
    Not if there is the evidence to back it up!
    If your wife says she doesn't fancy going out for a meal, then changes her mind, is she a liar or has she just thought about it some more and changed her mind.

    Changing your mind and lying are different. But you know this. Sadly it's all you've got to cling to. Which is pretty funny from my perspective.

    On the topic of wives changing their minds, for the first time ever (she has always voted Labour or LD) the good lady is voting Tory. primarily because she feels the LD's are irrelevant and Corbyn is utterly incompetent.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191

    Was trying to work out the Labour campaign strategy.

    I think the best analogy would be the Red Wedding.

    But not as friendly?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,958
    Patrick said:

    ToryJim said:
    Wow! On stilts. Labour are going to get utterly trashed. There's something truly cultural going on here - not mererly political.
    Before GE2015 I said that there must be some unwind back to Scottish Labour: there's no way that people who had voted Labour all their lives were going to change. The polls might not be wrong as an indication of intention, but they did not fully represent what people would do in the solitude of the polling station.

    Boy, was I wrong. And since then Scottish Labour have continued to sink. I'm not going to be brave enough to say the same thing about Labour in Wales.

    The polls are right, and they're going to get hammered. And as with Scottish Labour, I see no way back.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    15 years of growing hatred and despair from the labour core WWC vote is boiling over. Astonishing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Caerphilly should be safe but you're braver than me if you're going for the 1-12 Labour there.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    paddy are 9/4 tory win in Ynys Mon (Anglesey) - was 4/1 this morning
  • I'm still in shock. Labour have completely lost Scotland. Now they look like they've lost Wales too! Dear me.
    The Midlands look like a bloodbath for them.
    They are retreating into Islington. The rich, lefty, luvvie, artsy bits. And nothing else.
    I think the WWC / Identity Politics alliance within Labour has finally fractured. The WWC are peeling away.
    We're going to need a new centre left.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.

    Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544

    15 years of growing hatred and despair from the labour core WWC vote is boiling over. Astonishing.

    ...and its not going to some wild populist, moon-on-a-stick, Trump type character, but to May's Conservatives. Quite incredible.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448

    Meanwhile...

    Jeremy Corbyn MP‏Verified account
    @jeremycorbyn

    Week one of our #GE2017 campaign got off to a flying start. Join us for week two → http://www.labour.org.uk/volunteering

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfAeMtcURg0
  • Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.

    Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.

    We're into Mboto Gorge territory now it seems.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Scott_P said:

    @CJTerry: Labour has (so far) never lost a general election in Wales during the period of universal suffrage, btw.

    Never mind universal suffrage (i.e. 1929), the Tories have never won once since the days of public ballots have they? IIRC, the last general election the Tories won in Wales was 1859.
    I said since the Civil War earlier, I guessed since Charles I and bucket boots were in, but I suppose the US one counts!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Random thought - I wonder if a small part of May's appeal to the older demographic is she's a politician who clearly doesn't dye her hair - its the colour nature intended. Not something that can be said of many other leading female politicians (and almost certainly a significant chunk of male ones too). What other female politicians in their late fifties/early sixties can say the same (or indeed younger ones whose hair has miraculously changed colour over the years)? Subliminal authenticity?

    Was it Gerhard Schroder that threatened to sue a journo when they asked if he colored his hair?
    Yep:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/1992700.stm
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    "The huge leap in the Tory rating since our last poll has come mostly at the expense of UKIP. "

    The biggest UKIP shares are in pretty much all the Labour held seats.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    saddened said:



    On the topic of wives changing their minds, for the first time ever (she has always voted Labour or LD) the good lady is voting Tory. primarily because she feels the LD's are irrelevant and Corbyn is utterly incompetent.

    So the lady IS for turning? ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Typo said:

    AndyJS said:
    That is quite something. Pile in on Ynys Mon?
    Definitely. Tories were less than 10% behind the winner in 2015.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.

    Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.

    This is the loss of Constantinople and the beginning of six centuries of strife
  • Patrick said:

    Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.

    Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.

    We're into Mboto Gorge territory now it seems.
    Labour activists armed with Kiwi fruit and guava halves.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: I still think the part of the country which may really stun Labour is London. Brexit, £70K pledge and private schools toxic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Patrick said:

    Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.

    Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.

    We're into Mboto Gorge territory now it seems.
    I had a bit-of-a-laugh bet on 450+ Tory seats earlier.

    Now beginning to wonder...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!

    Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: I still think the part of the country which may really stun Labour is London. Brexit, £70K pledge and private schools toxic.

    Hold on.

    That's all Labour have left isn't it?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    I wonder what those figs would mean for an Assembly election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: I still think the part of the country which may really stun Labour is London. Brexit, £70K pledge and private schools toxic.

    LOL
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    paddy seem to have suspended welsh betting constituencies..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Woolie, but is the city lost to the Fourth Crusade, or the Turks?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 941
    Put your money on Lib Dems then!!!!!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    I'm getting a tad concerned things are so grim for Labour they might just get rid of Jezza mid-campaign!!!!!

    Is there any actual mechanism for them to do that?

    Peel off and run as a different party. En masse. And hope labour support follows
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: I still think the part of the country which may really stun Labour is London. Brexit, £70K pledge and private schools toxic.

    Hold on.

    That's all Labour have left isn't it?
    Well done to everyone who got on with RCS in Vauxhall !
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Woolie, but is the city lost to the Fourth Crusade, or the Turks?

    The empire came back from the fourth crusade takeover............
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Mr. Jim, I'm quite worried the Conservatives will end up with a majority of ludicrous proportions.

    Not least because I'll need to update my battlefield list (at the moment -100 for the Battle of Adrianople is the worst result). The initial list only went to Cannae (-70) and I thought that the end of credible losses.

    Carrhae?

    The Teutoberg Forest?

    Mind you those weren't quite terminal for the losing side.

    How about the Horns of Hattin?
  • Lib Dem membership just passed the 100,000 mark, with 12,000 new members since the general election was called.
  • Brexit and Corbyn have miraculously combined to unsplit the right (UKIP is fucked) and destroy Labour. It's a perfect storm. Lefties should all vote LibDem maybe? They're a halfway decent bunch and might offer some opposition.
This discussion has been closed.