Males sense. They've already been squeezed to their bare core in many of those seats and have nothing left to lose, the crush is now in seats they hold where they have been in their pomp. Would indicate a movement on a non UNS basis, as UNS cannot apply differentially like this and they end up on a Lib-Dem style low 20s with not much to show for it in seats. ELE and getting worse,
It's the opposite of 1983 when Labour's vote dropped most heavily in the seats where they were weakest, one reason why they managed to hold 209 seats with 27.6%.
Typos in 2nd para fixed. Problem with going with an earlier draft.
Burnley looks fascinating. I have it as a 3 way mega marginal.
Indeed like several ex LD seats that were won by LAB at GE2015. I've no special information about it.
Cambridge certainly comes to mind in that it had normally been a Tory seat until 1992.
Lib Dem GAIN
I don’t expect the LibDems to do very well. Labour will surely seek to remind voters that they were ‘the Tories’ little helpers’ for five years.. Some of the apparently promising LibDem targets also flatter to deceive. To take Cambridge as an example – the Labour MP elected in 2015 can now expect an incumbency bonus whilst the LibDems there have lost theirs – so Labour effectively enjoys a double incumbency boost there. He is also an ardent Remainer in so far as that may prove salient. The other point is that until 1992 Cambridge was normally a Tory seat – and the LibDems have only progressed at all there via Tory tactical votes and Labour voters alienated by Iraq in 2005. The latter are very unlikely to switch back to the LibDems, and if the Tories really do poll circa 45% nationally, why would they continue to vote tactically rather than going home to their own party? Labour has twice – in 1992 & 2015 – won the seat from third place.Why should the Tories not contemplate doing the same
The Tories will be on about 600 seats if they win Cambridge.
Not at all. Labour only narrowly won the seat in 1945 & 1966. In every other post war election the seat was Tory - until 1992. In 2010 the Tories were in second place just 13% behind the LibDems. The latter are polling much lower now and the Tories a lot higher. Tactical voting in 2015 resulted in artificially high figures there for the LibDems at Tory expense. If the 2010 result is treated as the Tory base , this seat is very winnable for them.
Not really. They are not just Tories, they are educated Cambridge Remainer Tories. And the Tory organisation locally is very weak.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
The Tories losing share in safe seats is great news for them. My calc has them on 80% in South Holland, best for them those votes go elsewhere.
It's very unusual for a Conservative candidate to get more than about 68% in any constituency no matter how safe it is, and IMO that's likely to continue at this election. Therefore they won't get much of an increase in the seats where they're already near that level like Maidenhead and Beaconsfield. As you say, that means they must be doing better elsewhere.
Will resources be a problem for the Tories with so many potential wins? If the ground game really matters as much as some say, will the sheer number of winnable constituencies and the money required prove a barrier, in addition to the few seats they'll need to actively defend?
Yes, the door-knockers will be eager and in fine spirits. But are there enough of them, particularly in constituencies that are not 'typical' Tory ones?
Or are their endeavours less important this time around?
We need to hear from lab posters more to puncture this swelling blue optimism before it gets too expensive a bubble... I imagine Tim is doing his bit on twitter ??
Typos in 2nd para fixed. Problem with going with an earlier draft.
Burnley looks fascinating. I have it as a 3 way mega marginal.
Indeed like several ex LD seats that were won by LAB at GE2015. I've no special information about it.
Cambridge certainly comes to mind in that it had normally been a Tory seat until 1992.
Lib Dem GAIN
The Tories will be on about 600 seats if they win Cambridge.
Not at all. Labour only narrowly won the seat in 1945 & 1966. In every other post war election the seat was Tory - until 1992. In 2010 the Tories were in second place just 13% behind the LibDems. The latter are polling much lower now and the Tories a lot higher. Tactical voting in 2015 resulted in artificially high figures there for the LibDems at Tory expense. If the 2010 result is treated as the Tory base , this seat is very winnable for them.
The Tories aren't gaining Cambridge whilst they have 70% of the Brexit vote, it is simple mathematics.
You are probably making the mistake of assuming that Brexit is far more salient as an issue than is actually the case.
I'm really, really not.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
Yes, the antics from the likes of Blair and Gina Miller are only playing into Mrs May's hands.
The overwhelming feeling, regardless of how people voted on Brexit, is that we just need to get on with it now, and if that's considered the sole question then people will think it best for May to have a big majority in order to have a strong hand in the negotiations. When you're going into battle with "enemies" of the country, people are always going to feel that it's best to have as much of a united front as possible.
The way for Labour to win in Mansfield and the like is to focus the electorate's attention on domestic issues (where the Tories still seem very much vulnerable to me), and say "the only way Prime Minister May will be forced to pay attention to the NHS and your living standards is if there's a strong opposition to keep her on her toes".
I find it hard to believe the ICM figures that Conservatives are doing better in Labour marginals 48% than in their own marginals 40% . Lib Dems down weighted in this poll from 184 voters to 151 . LDs lose 17 2015 voters to Con but gain 21 from them LDs lose 17 2015 voters to Lab but gain 35 from them LDs lose 0 2015 voter to UKIP but gain 7 from them LDs lose 2 2015 voters to Greens but gain ??? from them
Did anyone keep Alastair's list of Labour seats and their majorities? From recollection this is looking like something up to 100 losses. Still hard to believe.
Every Tory target up to 87 (Lancashire West) looks more likely than not to go if that's correct, and of course the Conservatives will presumably overachieve in some seats beyond that level.
Thanks Alastair. There is still a while to go but this is starting to look awfully like Scotland in 2015.
Like others I am having some problem reconciling a Tory lead of 17% in Labour seats with Labour being on 28%. Add in a catastrophic collapse in their share of the vote in Scotland (only costing 1 seat) and they really should be doing not well but better than this.
Well if the Tories aren't putting on votes in South Holland and the Deepings it will help them out in Mansfield for the same share.
Yes, but if Labour are doing really badly in Mansfield can they really be on 28%? That is the question.
Did anyone keep Alastair's list of Labour seats and their majorities? From recollection this is looking like something up to 100 losses. Still hard to believe.
Every Tory target up to 87 (Lancashire West) looks more likely than not to go if that's correct, and of course the Conservatives will presumably overachieve in some seats beyond that level.
I've just realised I've misunderstood what that crosstab hints at. Lumme, that's bad for Labour.
Yes, its much worse than looking down the list to target 87. If the pool is Labour seats then they should be very significantly ahead in that subsection and the starting point is not zero. So, for example, if Labour were on average 20% ahead in these seats the last time ( a pretty conservative estimate) then for the Tories to be 17% ahead means there has been an 18.5% swing against them in this pool of seats.
The problem remains if this is true then Labour are nowhere near 28%. So maybe it isn't true.
Did anyone keep Alastair's list of Labour seats and their majorities? From recollection this is looking like something up to 100 losses. Still hard to believe.
Every Tory target up to 87 (Lancashire West) looks more likely than not to go if that's correct, and of course the Conservatives will presumably overachieve in some seats beyond that level.
I've just realised I've misunderstood what that crosstab hints at. Lumme, that's bad for Labour.
I find it hard to imagine a world where Slough (no 76) returns a Tory MP....
Will resources be a problem for the Tories with so many potential wins? If the ground game really matters as much as some say, will the sheer number of winnable constituencies and the money required prove a barrier, in addition to the few seats they'll need to actively defend?
Yes, the door-knockers will be eager and in fine spirits. But are there enough of them, particularly in constituencies that are not 'typical' Tory ones?
Or are their endeavours less important this time around?
It never has in the past and I do not expect it to be a problem this time.
Just reflecting on Theresa May's decision - is this one of the masterstrokes of all time in politics.
Reduces labour to irrelevance, gives Nicola a huge problem, and re-establishes the conservatives as the dominant party in Wales
Comres, ICM and YG all have the Tories on 50% or more in their respective Wales (Midlands/Wales with YG) subsamples.
Yes, but there's a big difference between Wales alone and Wales + E Mids + W Mids. For Con to be on 50% in the latter is very healthy; to be on 50% in the former is utterly extraordinary.
But as others have said, let's wait for the properly weighted poll rather than a small subsample.
Will resources be a problem for the Tories with so many potential wins? If the ground game really matters as much as some say, will the sheer number of winnable constituencies and the money required prove a barrier, in addition to the few seats they'll need to actively defend?
Yes, the door-knockers will be eager and in fine spirits. But are there enough of them, particularly in constituencies that are not 'typical' Tory ones?
Or are their endeavours less important this time around?
If the election pans out as polling indicates then plenty of Con gains will be won without needing to really try. There could also be a lot of near misses where nobody spots the shifts because lack of intel etc
One wonders how much of this has been coming since the Brown meltdown but a large % of the WWC wouldn't vote for a toff. They started going kipper in 2015 and are now decamping to planet May
Will resources be a problem for the Tories with so many potential wins? If the ground game really matters as much as some say, will the sheer number of winnable constituencies and the money required prove a barrier, in addition to the few seats they'll need to actively defend?
Yes, the door-knockers will be eager and in fine spirits. But are there enough of them, particularly in constituencies that are not 'typical' Tory ones?
Or are their endeavours less important this time around?
It never has in the past and I do not expect it to be a problem this time.
Just reflecting on Theresa May's decision - is this one of the masterstrokes of all time in politics.
Reduces labour to irrelevance, gives Nicola a huge problem, and re-establishes the conservatives as the dominant party in Wales
I am reminded again of my daughter's comment. "This is so Frank Underwood". She was spot on.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
Will resources be a problem for the Tories with so many potential wins? If the ground game really matters as much as some say, will the sheer number of winnable constituencies and the money required prove a barrier, in addition to the few seats they'll need to actively defend?
Yes, the door-knockers will be eager and in fine spirits. But are there enough of them, particularly in constituencies that are not 'typical' Tory ones?
Or are their endeavours less important this time around?
It never has in the past and I do not expect it to be a problem this time.
Just reflecting on Theresa May's decision - is this one of the masterstrokes of all time in politics.
Reduces labour to irrelevance, gives Nicola a huge problem, and re-establishes the conservatives as the dominant party in Wales
I think the way she sprung the election shows a healthy appetite for low political cunning. I think She executed one of the best tactical feints since Napoleon abandoned the Pratzen Heights.
It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago
Comres, ICM and YG all have the Tories on 50% or more in their respective Wales (Midlands/Wales with YG) subsamples.
Yes, but there's a big difference between Wales alone and Wales + E Mids + W Mids. For Con to be on 50% in the latter is very healthy; to be on 50% in the former is utterly extraordinary.
But as others have said, let's wait for the properly weighted poll rather than a small subsample.
Yes, agreed.
YG had the Tories on 52 in England, while two polls have the Tories around 30 in Scotland, so Wales is probably well into the mid 40s at least.
The Tories losing share in safe seats is great news for them. My calc has them on 80% in South Holland, best for them those votes go elsewhere.
It's very unusual for a Conservative candidate to get more than about 68% in any constituency no matter how safe it is, and IMO that's likely to continue at this election. Therefore they won't get much of an increase in the seats where they're already near that level like Maidenhead and Beaconsfield. As you say, that means they must be doing better elsewhere.
That's like the zero-bound issue we had with the Lib Dems last time which suggested that they simply couldn't keep as many of their seats as was expected. Why do the Tories have such an upper bound, and is there a structural reason why is it lower than the Labour upper bound (cf Liverpool Walton, East Ham etc)
It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago
Typos in 2nd para fixed. Problem with going with an earlier draft.
Burnley looks fascinating. I have it as a 3 way mega marginal.
Indeed like several ex LD seats that were won by LAB at GE2015. I've no special information about it.
Cambridge certainly comes to mind in that it had normally been a Tory seat until 1992.
Lib Dem GAIN
I don’t expect the LibDems to do very well. Labour will surely seek to remind voters that they were ‘the Tories’ little helpers’ for five years.. Some of the apparently promising LibDem targets also flatter to deceive. To take Cambridge as an example – the Labour MP elected in 2015 can now expect an incumbency bonus whilst the LibDems there have lost theirs – so Labour effectively enjoys a double incumbency boost there. He is also an ardent Remainer in so far as that may prove salient. The other point is that until 1992 Cambridge was normally a Tory seat – and the LibDems have only progressed at all there via Tory tactical votes and Labour voters alienated by Iraq in 2005. The latter are very unlikely to switch back to the LibDems, and if the Tories really do poll circa 45% nationally, why would they continue to vote tactically rather than going home to their own party? Labour has twice – in 1992 & 2015 – won the seat from third place.Why should the Tories not contemplate doing the same
The Tories will be on about 600 seats if they win Cambridge.
Not at all. Labour only narrowly won the seat in 1945 & 1966. In every other post war election the seat was Tory - until 1992. In 2010 the Tories were in second place just 13% behind the LibDems. The latter are polling much lower now and the Tories a lot higher. Tactical voting in 2015 resulted in artificially high figures there for the LibDems at Tory expense. If the 2010 result is treated as the Tory base , this seat is very winnable for them.
Not really. They are not just Tories, they are educated Cambridge Remainer Tories. And the Tory organisation locally is very weak.
The story of the day on June 8th is going to be differential turnout. The Tories are miles ahead in the polls, with some apparently astonishing shares. And better in Labour seats! What this means in practice is that a very significant proportion of previously (and potentially future) Labour voters can't face it this time around. They'll just not turn up. Overall turnout won't be dramatic. But the final share of the votes will be. Tories up. Labour down. Expect new record highs for the number of absolute votes for Tories and new record lows for Labour.
The Tories losing share in safe seats is great news for them. My calc has them on 80% in South Holland, best for them those votes go elsewhere.
It's very unusual for a Conservative candidate to get more than about 68% in any constituency no matter how safe it is, and IMO that's likely to continue at this election. Therefore they won't get much of an increase in the seats where they're already near that level like Maidenhead and Beaconsfield. As you say, that means they must be doing better elsewhere.
That's like the zero-bound issue we had with the Lib Dems last time which suggested that they simply couldn't keep as many of their seats as was expected. Why do the Tories have such an upper bound, and is there a structural reason why is it lower than the Labour upper bound (cf Liverpool Walton, East Ham etc)
Anyone but the Tories has always been stronger than anyone but labour. Till now
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
You do have to feel for the voters of Cambridge. All those footsoldiers from all those parties, and nowhere else sensible for them to campaign for miles around. They'll practically be able to assign each voter their own personal activists.
The story of the day on June 8th is going to be differential turnout. The Tories are miles ahead in the polls, with some apparently astonishing shares. And better in Labour seats! What this means in practice is that a very significant proportion of previously (and potentially future) Labour voters can't face it this time around. They'll just not turn up. Overall turnout won't be dramatic. But the final share of the votes will be. Tories up. Labour down. Expect new record highs for the number of absolute votes for Tories and new record lows for Labour.
Hmmm...The way I remember it in 1992 Kinnock was thought to have a decent chance of winning and that is what brought out the barely bothered. I am not sure that is going to be a factor this time.
The Wales poll will tell us alot about provincial England imo.
Maybe. But don't forget Labour have been running Wales. Badly. The bread and butter issues of domestic politics are not things Labour in Wales can shout about. They have, like in Scotland, taken their vote for granted for a long time. If that is broken now then, also like Scotland, it's not coming back anytime soon. But England is a bit different as they haven't been in charge.
The story of the day on June 8th is going to be differential turnout. The Tories are miles ahead in the polls, with some apparently astonishing shares. And better in Labour seats! What this means in practice is that a very significant proportion of previously (and potentially future) Labour voters can't face it this time around. They'll just not turn up. Overall turnout won't be dramatic. But the final share of the votes will be. Tories up. Labour down. Expect new record highs for the number of absolute votes for Tories and new record lows for Labour.
Hmmm...The way I remember it in 1992 Kinnock was thought to have a decent chance of winning and that is what brought out the barely bothered. I am not sure that is going to be a factor this time.
This one will be less about the shires and con/Lib battlegrounds than it will be the vengeance of the WWC against a Labour party they feel have betrayed them and no longer share their concerns. It will have been noted in the NE, Yorkshire and Wales what happened in Scotland 2015, and that the intractable can be punished. And will be
You do have to feel for the voters of Cambridge. All those footsoldiers from all those parties, and nowhere else sensible for them to campaign for miles around. They'll practically be able to assign each voter their own personal activists.
And they will be switching off their phones in the evening too.
The story of the day on June 8th is going to be differential turnout. The Tories are miles ahead in the polls, with some apparently astonishing shares. And better in Labour seats! What this means in practice is that a very significant proportion of previously (and potentially future) Labour voters can't face it this time around. They'll just not turn up. Overall turnout won't be dramatic. But the final share of the votes will be. Tories up. Labour down. Expect new record highs for the number of absolute votes for Tories and new record lows for Labour.
Hmmm...The way I remember it in 1992 Kinnock was thought to have a decent chance of winning and that is what brought out the barely bothered. I am not sure that is going to be a factor this time.
Not sure I understand your logic. The Tories smell blood and will be out in force, hoovering up alot of Ukip votes into the bargain. Labour? They look a bit chaotic and demoralised to me. And they will struggle with the 'stop the Tories' vote as many of them won't be able to vote Corbyn.
The Wales poll will tell us alot about provincial England imo.
Maybe. But don't forget Labour have been running Wales. Badly. The bread and butter issues of domestic politics are not things Labour in Wales can shout about. They have, like in Scotland, taken their vote for granted for a long time. If that is broken now then, also like Scotland, it's not coming back anytime soon. But England is a bit different as they haven't been in charge.
Hmm More I mean a UK wide poll includes Scotland, and London.
The biggest city in Wales is Cardiff, which is about the same size as Coventry. Wales is two small cities and lots of towns and plenty of ex mining - much more like the sorts of areas in England where Labour has historic support and might just be doing badly.
The story of the day on June 8th is going to be differential turnout. The Tories are miles ahead in the polls, with some apparently astonishing shares. And better in Labour seats! What this means in practice is that a very significant proportion of previously (and potentially future) Labour voters can't face it this time around. They'll just not turn up. Overall turnout won't be dramatic. But the final share of the votes will be. Tories up. Labour down. Expect new record highs for the number of absolute votes for Tories and new record lows for Labour.
Hmmm...The way I remember it in 1992 Kinnock was thought to have a decent chance of winning and that is what brought out the barely bothered. I am not sure that is going to be a factor this time.
Not sure I understand your logic. The Tories smell blood and will be out in force, hoovering up alot of Ukip votes into the bargain. Labour? They look a bit chaotic and demoralised to me. And they will struggle with the 'stop the Tories' vote as many of them won't be able to vote Corbyn.
I thought you were talking about overall turnout. I think that will be down because Labour will not be able to bring themselves to vote for that man and the Tories will be more than a bit confident. I don't see the Tories challenging Major's record in those circumstances.
The story of the day on June 8th is going to be differential turnout. The Tories are miles ahead in the polls, with some apparently astonishing shares. And better in Labour seats! What this means in practice is that a very significant proportion of previously (and potentially future) Labour voters can't face it this time around. They'll just not turn up. Overall turnout won't be dramatic. But the final share of the votes will be. Tories up. Labour down. Expect new record highs for the number of absolute votes for Tories and new record lows for Labour.
Hmmm...The way I remember it in 1992 Kinnock was thought to have a decent chance of winning and that is what brought out the barely bothered. I am not sure that is going to be a factor this time.
Not sure I understand your logic. The Tories smell blood and will be out in force, hoovering up alot of Ukip votes into the bargain. Labour? They look a bit chaotic and demoralised to me. And they will struggle with the 'stop the Tories' vote as many of them won't be able to vote Corbyn.
When there's a big swing between the two main parties, a lot of people will turn out just to give their former party an absolute kicking, as in 1997. If this election becomes a referendum on Corbyn, the result will be brutal.
The Wales poll will tell us alot about provincial England imo.
Maybe. But don't forget Labour have been running Wales. Badly. The bread and butter issues of domestic politics are not things Labour in Wales can shout about. They have, like in Scotland, taken their vote for granted for a long time. If that is broken now then, also like Scotland, it's not coming back anytime soon. But England is a bit different as they haven't been in charge.
for reference, ITN Wales poll in January of this year had following %s
The story of the day on June 8th is going to be differential turnout. The Tories are miles ahead in the polls, with some apparently astonishing shares. And better in Labour seats! What this means in practice is that a very significant proportion of previously (and potentially future) Labour voters can't face it this time around. They'll just not turn up. Overall turnout won't be dramatic. But the final share of the votes will be. Tories up. Labour down. Expect new record highs for the number of absolute votes for Tories and new record lows for Labour.
Hmmm...The way I remember it in 1992 Kinnock was thought to have a decent chance of winning and that is what brought out the barely bothered. I am not sure that is going to be a factor this time.
Not sure I understand your logic. The Tories smell blood and will be out in force, hoovering up alot of Ukip votes into the bargain. Labour? They look a bit chaotic and demoralised to me. And they will struggle with the 'stop the Tories' vote as many of them won't be able to vote Corbyn.
I have a sneaky feeling that turnout will be quite healthy.
We need to hear from lab posters more to puncture this swelling blue optimism before it gets too expensive a bubble... I imagine Tim is doing his bit on twitter ??
tim's view of Corbyn pretty much coincides with everyone else's.
There will be blue wobbles in the coming weeks, probably over tax-raising pledges, but the big picture is surely that the tories are run by competent adults, that we haven't even started on IRA/Hamas yet, that Corbyn has not been provoked into a carcrash/meltdown on telly yet,and that every competent adult connected with Labour will be keeping a low profile, possibly adopting the Niqab or Burka for the duration of the campaign.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
If anything is pushing Labour a fraction higher it is that last thought. It will be a factor.
Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.
And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.
I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.
If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK
Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
We need to hear from lab posters more to puncture this swelling blue optimism before it gets too expensive a bubble... I imagine Tim is doing his bit on twitter ??
tim's view of Corbyn pretty much coincides with everyone else's.
There will be blue wobbles in the coming weeks, probably over tax-raising pledges, but the big picture is surely that the tories are run by competent adults, that we haven't even started on IRA/Hamas yet, that Corbyn has not been provoked into a carcrash/meltdown on telly yet,and that every competent adult connected with Labour will be keeping a low profile, possibly adopting the Niqab or Burka for the duration of the campaign.
This election is all about Corbyn. He is the only game in town. There is literally nothing that the Tories can do or say that will cause them to lose on 8th June. I am coming round to the view that Labour could be closer to 100 seats than 150 come 9th June.
Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.
And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.
I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.
If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK
Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
Well what are A and B in this context? The 'tens of thousands' migration pledge makes zero sense coming from Corbyn's Labour. As for saying she wouldn't hold an election, I'm not convinced people are bothered about her going back on that.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
But why has Labour gone up from 25% to 27% with ICM in a week? Or from 23% to 25% with Yougov?
Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.
And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.
I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.
If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK
Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
Well what are A and B in this context? The 'tens of thousands' migration pledge makes zero sense coming from Corbyn's Labour. As for saying she wouldn't hold an election, I'm not convinced people are bothered about her going back on that.
More to the point, Labour and the Lib Dems supported her call for an election, so they can't make anything of that.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
But why has Labour gone up from 25% to 27% with ICM in a week? Or from 23% to 25% with Yougov?
Could it be something to do with Mrs May, something she has said or done?
Tory Jim - If turnout is healthy that means death for Labour. I say this because it will be Tory votes keeping it up. Ilef - Tories leading Labour in Wales (possibly significantly) would be a massive crossover point. Let's wait for the poll. If it is it presages a big result. WilliamGlenn - Agree. If the working classes have finally lost it with Labour they will vote with the zealotry of the convert.
But - let's not get too ahead of ourselves. A big result is on the cards but I'll wait until I call a WTF wipeout. Some polls will soon tell us.
It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago
Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.
And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.
I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.
If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK
Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
It seems that, as reported at the time, there were several incidents on this line before the accident, and three since.
It'll be interesting to see why these prior incidents were not picked up (or why they were ignored if they were). Also, if it's true that staff are not reporting near-misses for fear of their jobs.
Near-misses are a vital tool in safety, and it could be that Tramlink were ignoring them, preferring to blame the drivers ...
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
But why has Labour gone up from 25% to 27% with ICM in a week? Or from 23% to 25% with Yougov?
I've not crunched the numbers but my guess would be UKIP decline (which'd be why the Con shares have gone up too).
The question for Labour now is whether they can hold off the Lib Dems from making gains into their share as Farron tries to position themselves as 'the real opposition'.
Mr. L, the stars are aligning for the Conservatives. Doesn't today's Independent have a 'front page' of Blair prognosticating on the woes of leaving the EU?
I really think you are - and have been saying this for months. Brexit is an important issue - but not a salient one. Most people have moved on - and it is far too technical for the typical voter . Corbyn is already largely ignoring it and I suspect his focus on other issues will gain some traction.
You might be right that @Pulpstar is attaching too much weight to Leave/Remain, but does it make much difference to the big picture? Use UNS if you prefer; it still ain't pretty for Labour.
Looks like 1983 to me not many will remember or care about 1931.
I think Labour would take a 1983 result right now.
Yes you are right there , I thought 150 majority for the conservatives similar to 1983, maybe I am wrong.I remember the same ridicule over Michael Foot as leader.If this was a boxing match the trainer would through the towel in .Kicking someone when they are down is not a good look.I suspect many Labour voters might not think much of Corbyn but do not want Labour destroyed but are able to fight another day.
If anything is pushing Labour a fraction higher it is that last thought. It will be a factor.
Don't forget most people do not spend their time analysing poll details and Scottish subsamples etc etc
A good lot of people do not know if their own seat is safe or marginal. Most people will not know what the pundits are saying and really almost nobody at all will think about it in enough detail to adjust their vote attempt to possibly mitigate a purported bloodbath for the long term democratic health of the nation.
People will just vote for who they want to vote for and not analyse the detailed possible consequences.
We need to hear from lab posters more to puncture this swelling blue optimism before it gets too expensive a bubble... I imagine Tim is doing his bit on twitter ??
tim's view of Corbyn pretty much coincides with everyone else's.
There will be blue wobbles in the coming weeks, probably over tax-raising pledges, but the big picture is surely that the tories are run by competent adults, that we haven't even started on IRA/Hamas yet, that Corbyn has not been provoked into a carcrash/meltdown on telly yet,and that every competent adult connected with Labour will be keeping a low profile, possibly adopting the Niqab or Burka for the duration of the campaign.
This election is all about Corbyn. He is the only game in town. There is literally nothing that the Tories can do or say that will cause them to lose on 8th June. I am coming round to the view that Labour could be closer to 100 seats than 150 come 9th June.
As Williamglenn said down thread this could become a referendum on Corbyn and as each day passes it really does feel it is morphing into that
Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.
And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.
I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.
If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK
Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
With respect Justin calling someone a liar, especially someone who is popular, is another vote closer
Shhhh! They are too busy talking to themselves and when they do encounter someone with a positive impression of May (bit difficult to avoid as they are around half the population) it can be put down to false consciesness....
While movements of =< 2 % are well within MOE and probably not worth the oxygen ...
ICM's last polls
Con 48% Lab 27% LD 10% April 24th Con 46% Lab 25% LibDem 11% April 19th (after announcement) Con 44% Labour 26% LD 10% April 18th (all fieldwork collected before announcement)
I might have missed something, but the only non-MOE change there is ...
The scientist in me is also telling you that 2 data points do not make a trend.
It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago
Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
Crossland, Crossman, Castle and Mason. WTF happened to this party?
It reminds me a bit of the February 1974 election when Ted Heath went to the country at the time of his 3 Day Week on a Who rules Britain? platform.He was unable to sustain that even in a three week campaign - never mind the seven weeks we are now faced with. I actually sense that Brexit is already less dominant than a week ago
Heath was up against Wilson and a Labour front bench that featured the likes of Healey, Callaghan, Shore, Foot, Jenkins and Williams. May isn't.
Crossland, Crossman, Castle and Mason. WTF happened to this party?
Every day Corbyn becomes more of a liability and today the communist party have endorsed him.
And in the meantime the PM keeps out of the limelight working on the manifesto and having photos taken with her candidates.
I think you must love Theresa May you support her every action.Even the mundane .
My wife and I are both impressed with Theresa May as we want a solid competent politician leading our Country.
If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK
Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
But you were probably going to vote for her anyway. Labour needs to counter that by pushing strongly the ' You cannot believe a word of what she says' message. Would Labour be able to call her a liar in a PPB? I am thinking of 'She lied about A - She lied about B - How can we believe anything she says?' Go to town and make her dishonesty a central campaign issue!
Comments
Yes, the door-knockers will be eager and in fine spirits. But are there enough of them, particularly in constituencies that are not 'typical' Tory ones?
Or are their endeavours less important this time around?
The overwhelming feeling, regardless of how people voted on Brexit, is that we just need to get on with it now, and if that's considered the sole question then people will think it best for May to have a big majority in order to have a strong hand in the negotiations. When you're going into battle with "enemies" of the country, people are always going to feel that it's best to have as much of a united front as possible.
The way for Labour to win in Mansfield and the like is to focus the electorate's attention on domestic issues (where the Tories still seem very much vulnerable to me), and say "the only way Prime Minister May will be forced to pay attention to the NHS and your living standards is if there's a strong opposition to keep her on her toes".
Lib Dems down weighted in this poll from 184 voters to 151 .
LDs lose 17 2015 voters to Con but gain 21 from them
LDs lose 17 2015 voters to Lab but gain 35 from them
LDs lose 0 2015 voter to UKIP but gain 7 from them
LDs lose 2 2015 voters to Greens but gain ??? from them
LDs get 4% of Leave voters and 19% of Remainers
The problem remains if this is true then Labour are nowhere near 28%. So maybe it isn't true.
2010: Lab 60 Con 16 LD 20
2015: Lab 65 Con 23 LD 4
2017: Lab 54 Con 30 LD 6
Yes, it's about a 9% swing to the Tories.
Just reflecting on Theresa May's decision - is this one of the masterstrokes of all time in politics.
Reduces labour to irrelevance, gives Nicola a huge problem, and re-establishes the conservatives as the dominant party in Wales
@Jonathan reported decent Labour canvassing in Horsham.
I think the wasted Lbour vote is holding up.
Labour 25 seats 36.9%
Conservative 11 seats 27.2%
What's a bloodbath?
But as others have said, let's wait for the properly weighted poll rather than a small subsample.
YG had the Tories on 52 in England, while two polls have the Tories around 30 in Scotland, so Wales is probably well into the mid 40s at least.
But England is a bit different as they haven't been in charge.
If the narrative continues to June 8th many many millions will agree all across the UK
Also having a large Scots family we want the Union to be preserved and both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson are champions of the union of the UK
The biggest city in Wales is Cardiff, which is about the same size as Coventry. Wales is two small cities and lots of towns and plenty of ex mining - much more like the sorts of areas in England where Labour has historic support and might just be doing badly.
Daggers must be a 3 way Marginal.. its one of the few seats the Kippers will be trying in/have a chance
Current polls favour the Tories
Labour hold all 51 council seats
Kippers 2nd last time and runners up in 50 council seats
Big BAME population
Big Old Labour population
Voted for Brexit
The anti mosque/burqa lines will go down well
10/1 Kippers get on!
labour 33%
cons 28%
plaid 13%
ukip 13%
libs 9%
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-01-09/poll-shows-labour-seats-at-risk/
its possible (likely?) that labour and the tories have swapped places (and %s)
There will be blue wobbles in the coming weeks, probably over tax-raising pledges, but the big picture is surely that the tories are run by competent adults, that we haven't even started on IRA/Hamas yet, that Corbyn has not been provoked into a carcrash/meltdown on telly yet,and that every competent adult connected with Labour will be keeping a low profile, possibly adopting the Niqab or Burka for the duration of the campaign.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/856518238636834816
Ilef - Tories leading Labour in Wales (possibly significantly) would be a massive crossover point. Let's wait for the poll. If it is it presages a big result.
WilliamGlenn - Agree. If the working classes have finally lost it with Labour they will vote with the zealotry of the convert.
But - let's not get too ahead of ourselves. A big result is on the cards but I'll wait until I call a WTF wipeout. Some polls will soon tell us.
The following news report into the Croydon tram crash is interesting:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-39457148
It seems that, as reported at the time, there were several incidents on this line before the accident, and three since.
It'll be interesting to see why these prior incidents were not picked up (or why they were ignored if they were). Also, if it's true that staff are not reporting near-misses for fear of their jobs.
Near-misses are a vital tool in safety, and it could be that Tramlink were ignoring them, preferring to blame the drivers ...
The question for Labour now is whether they can hold off the Lib Dems from making gains into their share as Farron tries to position themselves as 'the real opposition'.
A good lot of people do not know if their own seat is safe or marginal. Most people will not know what the pundits are saying and really almost nobody at all will think about it in enough detail to adjust their vote attempt to possibly mitigate a purported bloodbath for the long term democratic health of the nation.
People will just vote for who they want to vote for and not analyse the detailed possible consequences.
ICM's last polls
Con 48% Lab 27% LD 10% April 24th
Con 46% Lab 25% LibDem 11% April 19th (after announcement)
Con 44% Labour 26% LD 10% April 18th (all fieldwork collected before announcement)
I might have missed something, but the only non-MOE change there is ...
The scientist in me is also telling you that 2 data points do not make a trend.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/856503580135751680
Con 48% Lab 25% April 20-21st
Con 48% Lab 24% April 18-19th (after announcement)
Con 44% Labour 23% April 12-13th
yeah, 2 % there, but there's something much more significant going on.