politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

Floater said:

Labour voter Jane on sky news - thinks she might have to vote for May.

Can somebody phone Mrs Duffy? If she goes for Mrs may paddy power will probably payout immediately.

Floater said:

Labour voter Jane on sky news - thinks she might have to vote for May.

FAKE NEWS!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Any sign of Eddie izzard standing...Hasn't he in the past said he wanted to stand at the next GE?

If he stands in Bootle we may be in with a chance of nabbing it!

HurstLlama said:

AndyJS said:

HurstLlama said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Black_Rook said:

In a Labour heartland I can find hardly anyone who wants to vote for them

Mirror columnist Paul Routledge finds bad news for Camp Corbyn in the Labour stronghold of Wakefield, West Yorkshire...

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-heartland-can-find-hardly-10258670#ICID=sharebar_twitter

Worth a read for those looking for further reassurance that the wreck of Labour is coming. Plenty of praise from voters for Theresa May, derision for Corbyn, no interest in Ukip. All courtesy of a Labour-leaning paper, not Mail propaganda. Wonderful!

The liking or probably better say respect for may from strong anti-trump areas is puzzling. She is at best drab and uninspiring. I get why people liked Thatcher and blair, but may is more John major.

I don't quite get it myself - Corbyn being the alternative can only be part of it, and she does have a sort of dull, competent air about her, which I guess appeals, but she seems, at present, to really connect with people somehow. If she can sustain that, she is set for great things.

I did some fairly vigorous Canvassing today. This morning I spoke to some people in the High Street who I knew voted out in the referendum but who otherwise hadn't seen the inside of a polling station for donkeys' years if ever ("no point, Tories always get in round here") and they all said they were going to vote in the GE and vote Conservative. Why? Teresa May, that is why. She seems to be genuinely popular with the C2DE ladies, partly because they feel she will stop the toffs blocking the exit from the EU that they voted for last year, and partly because she is a woman who will "not stand any shit from any man".

Earlier this evening I took soundings from the most politically aware group in my area, i.e. the public bar of the New Inn. The UKIP tendency has gone. Those who supported UKIP are going to vote Conservative (again). I took particular care to check up on the current opinions of the Hurstpierpoint labour group, he said he will also be be voting Conservative because "That Teresa is right and Corbyn is a .... . (as a matter of fine interest the local Labour group is also Welsh, from the valleys).

Silly stuff in the great scheme of things (especially as this is one of teh safest Conservative seats in the country) and pure anecdote, but I wonder in how many other places, in cities and villages all over, are similar stories being played out and similar feelings held.

Which constituency IYDMMA?

Arundel and South Downs, Mr JS.

Safest Tory seat in the country at one point between 1997 and 2005 IIRC.

I'm not trying to brag, and it is reassuring to see - for an exceptionally cautious and nervous gambler, such as myself - that almost all the bets tipped on here today I'd already backed off the back of my own analysis, usually less than an hour or so prior to them being posted.

Pb.com is at its best when it's about the betting, and we're all in very fine company.

Is there a Vauxhall market that I've missed?

For comedy value, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister on 1st July, and who will win most seats.

I have no idea why.

Casino_Royale said:

For comedy value, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister on 1st July, and who will win most seats.

I have no idea why.

LDs may be starting to think they could come second in the popular vote if things carry on like they have today.

Casino_Royale said:

Is there a Vauxhall market that I've missed?

This one

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

For comedy value, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister on 1st July, and who will win most seats.

I have no idea why.

LDs may be starting to think they could come second in the popular vote if things carry on like they have today.

"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."

It's impossible for Labour to withstand this campaign.

Casino_Royale said:

For comedy value, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister on 1st July, and who will win most seats.

I have no idea why.

Automatic liability trip I expect.

interesting rumours that Coyne is ahead of McCluskey

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/855160019721080832

dr_spyn said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories always did better with women when Mrs Thatcher was PM, whereas recently Labour have won the female vote. Maybe the same thing is happening again with May. Simple explanation but could be true.

You Gov breakdown from last night's poll appeared to show 52% of women intending to vote Tory.

If that proves to be the case in the actual vote on 8 June, then it must be very likely indeed that Labour too will select a woman to succeed Corbyn. Now might be the time to put your money down, but be sure to pick someone who's likely to still be an M.P.

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

For comedy value, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister on 1st July, and who will win most seats.

I have no idea why.

LDs may be starting to think they could come second in the popular vote if things carry on like they have today.

"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."

It's impossible for Labour to withstand this campaign.

We could be at 1923 GE in reverse.

I am sure that Mr Farron frightens few old ladies. He would be a good LOTO.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

Labour voter Jane on sky news - thinks she might have to vote for May.

Can somebody phone Mrs Duffy? If she goes for Mrs may paddy power will probably payout immediately.

She grimaced and said " I have to vote for May"


Lifelong voters breaking their habit

Casino_Royale said:

Is there a Vauxhall market that I've missed?

I offered 10-1 on the LibDems. After all, they were only 47% behind Labour last time on 6.7% of the vote, didn't do very well in the GLA elections in the constituency, and have no local organisation to speak of.

Bizarrely, at least three people but my hands off to bet on the LDs.

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Is there a Vauxhall market that I've missed?

I offered 10-1 on the LibDems. After all, they were only 47% behind Labour last time on 6.7% of the vote, didn't do very well in the GLA elections in the constituency, and have no local organisation to speak of.

Bizarrely, at least three people but my hands off to bet on the LDs.

They have a natural base of about 25% of the vote though, if 2010 and 2005 are anything to go by - I think a lot of LD activists could be bussed in too, and the focus put on Hoey. It should swing more strongly than other non-London seats and, if the Corbyn votes splinter to the Greens and Tories as well, it's possible.

I'll be interested to see the odds once I know Hoey has confirmed she's restanding, and the markets are up.

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

For comedy value, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister on 1st July, and who will win most seats.

I have no idea why.

LDs may be starting to think they could come second in the popular vote if things carry on like they have today.

I backed the LDs at 33/1 in Guildford today. They are priced the same as Labour.

It voted 56% Remain, is chock full of middle-class Remainers, was LD from 2001-2005, very close in 2005, plus the LD vote was still near 40% in 2010.

If a LD surge is to happen, seats like that could be v.close because I'd expect the LD vote to bounce back, plus an element of Conservative Remainers to defect to them, if May looks home and hosed anyway.

And perhaps even if she's not.

Well one thing's for sure, the LibDems have around a hundred times better chance of winning in well-heeled, leafy Guildford than do Labour.
But then 100 times nowt is ......

Lyon through

Tories are favourites in Blackpool South according to the Betfair odds.

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

The frustrating thing for the French authorities is that the didn't merely suspect something (singular or plural) was going to occur over this week, they knew. They had been working to interdict it, but they often seem to be getting the outside borders of the jigsaw but not the bits in the middle that allow you to see a clear picture.

Suggestions there might be a Belgian connection but this may be early stage 2+2 = 5.

BBC reporting Pres Hollande as confirming it is terror, and also Reuters saying that there is a second suspect at large.

Belgian connection confirmed then. This was an organised IS controlled attack.

What was the target? The attack took place close to the Marks and Spencer store at no.100 on the Champs Elysées. The footage I have seen shows trouble occurring outside the Yves Rocher store next door, at no.102. If the attackers' car was driven on the right side of the road, then it came from the direction of the Place de la Concorde, in the direction of increasing numbers. The Jewish Chabad organisation has premises at no.122.

Francois Fillon calls for election to be suspended
The French presidential candidate has called for Sunday's presidential election first round to be suspended following the Paris attack.

Not sensible at all

Is any one else watching Emily Maitlis interviewing Andrew Gwynne MP on Newsnight? Killing him with kindness, but killing him all the same. Full marks to him, he seems to know that he doesn't have a product to sell, so he's trying to make a good job of it, but it's still not nearly good enough.

AndyJS said:

Tories are favourites in Blackpool South according to the Betfair odds.

I am applying 40% UKIP to switch to Tory, 95%+ Tory retention, and Alastair's rule of 1/8th Labour abstentions and 1/8th Labour-Tory defectors, in seats like that. Probably more in a place like Blackpool due to the demographics.

Put all that together, and that makes Blackpool South a clear Tory Gain.

Fox

Flagged this earlier. Potentially a huge story. If Coyne wins, Corbyn is screwed. Meanwhile, Coyne suspended by McCluskey surrogate on charges of holding inflammatory material about Len. At last a decent election story. Dull as fuck, this race so far.

I am still very cautious about all these crazy stories of Tories taking Bootle type results. Remember Cleggasm, when push came to shove people went nope can't do it, Labour it is even though Gordon is a moron.

foxinsoxuk said:

interesting rumours that Coyne is ahead of McCluskey

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/855160019721080832

hmmm and what happened today?

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

bobajobPB said:

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

Au revoir, dickhead.

Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.

Pot something, kettle something.

foxinsoxuk said:

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

For comedy value, Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister on 1st July, and who will win most seats.

I have no idea why.

LDs may be starting to think they could come second in the popular vote if things carry on like they have today.

"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."

It's impossible for Labour to withstand this campaign.

We could be at 1923 GE in reverse.

I am sure that Mr Farron frightens few old ladies. He would be a good LOTO.

The Liberal Democrats are just creeping up towards half of their 2010 vote share so far in the polls, and Labour is so entrenched in its deep core seats (English inner cities + South Wales valleys) that it is still projected to retain a three-figure seat count comfortably even if May becomes the first PM since the War to win an absolute majority of all votes cast.

The Lib Dems have just begun the process of dragging themselves off the floor, and there's no shortage of polling evidence to suggest that they have lost nearly as many 2015 supporters to the Tories as have moved in the opposite direction. Yes, they're doing a fair bit better against Labour, but a majority of the fairly small number of marginals available to them are Tory-held, and by no means all of those are hotbeds of Remainer discontent, either.

Labour will be the second party in the Commons by a long distance come June 9th, however badly it is beaten, and should retain a large residual support base. That said, if Corbyn refuses to fall on his sword and continues to be backed by the Far Left majority in the party membership, then one would expect - finally - a split to occur. That would open the way for a realignment, presumably with a merger between the centrist faction of Labour and the Lib Dems, probably followed by prolonged trench warfare as the new Opposition works to force the Corbynite Rump Labour Party out of its remaining strongholds.

Don't see how there's meant to be a straightforward replacement of the second party by the third, as in the post-WWI period, though.

SeanT said:

fpt for Sean Fear

I went to Paris a few weeks ago, and took a trip to St Denis, one of the most notorious banlieus.

It was extraordinary. It's one train stop from Gare du Nord, but it feels like a declining suburb of Tunis mixed with central Bucharest. Barely a white face. Zero cops. Arab youths were openly dealing drugs, or cooking kebabs on shopping trolleys, right outside the station.

I saw a fistfight between street traders, no one intervened.

...

Uncharacteristically, you understate how absolutely extraordinary that is. St Denis is not some remote ghetto, but close to central Paris and in a sense the spiritual home of France. Nearly every king from the 10th to the 18th centuries was buried in the Basilica there.

In UK terms, it's like the conditions you describe being seen outside Canterbury, Winchester or York cathedrals, but with the added twist of being just a few miles from central London.

Taking their time tonight these by-election counters.

augustus_carp said:

Is any one else watching Emily Maitlis interviewing Andrew Gwynne MP on Newsnight? Killing him with kindness, but killing him all the same. Full marks to him, he seems to know that he doesn't have a product to sell, so he's trying to make a good job of it, but it's still not nearly good enough.

Yes May has caught them napping and it shows.

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am still very cautious about all these crazy stories of Tories taking Bootle type results. Remember Cleggasm, when push came to shove people went nope can't do it, Labour it is even though Gordon is a moron.

Indeed. Even more pressure on people now, bigger pull and push factors, but can they really do it?

One thing's for sure - a lot of Corbynista's heads are going to explode come June 9th, unless against all odds they are the perceptive ones after all. We know the cry will be the system is rigged, since Corbyn's pulling the Trump move and already claiming it, but there will still be oodles of people certain that he is going to win, or at least it will be an ok result, and have their worlds shattered.

I saw a mini-blog the other day where this guy briefly said how crazy it would be if actually Cornbynistas were the majority and the media was making it seem like they were a minority. It all had the clear implication that they thought that it was the case. That is how far detached from reality some of these people are.

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

Taking their time tonight these by-election counters.

Harrow not counting till tomorrow , Blacon should be another 15 minutes or so

Ugh, having to wait until morning to find out the result in an area I've never been to and know nothing about? It makes me sick.

Cheers.

Chameleon said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am still very cautious about all these crazy stories of Tories taking Bootle type results. Remember Cleggasm, when push came to shove people went nope can't do it, Labour it is even though Gordon is a moron.

Indeed. Even more pressure on people now, bigger pull and push factors, but can they really do it?

One thing's for sure - a lot of Corbynista's heads are going to explode come June 9th, unless against all odds they are the perceptive ones after all. We know the cry will be the system is rigged, since Corbyn's pulling the Trump move and already claiming it, but there will still be oodles of people certain that he is going to win, or at least it will be an ok result, and have their worlds shattered.

I saw a mini-blog the other day where this guy briefly said how crazy it would be if actually Cornbynistas were the majority and the media was making it seem like they were a minority. It all had the clear implication that they thought that it was the case. That is how far detached from reality some of these people are.

Well, a lot of us are saying things like ' I don't know anyone who will vote for Corbyn', the same plaintive wail of those Lab supporters surprised by 2015...

(though I did find a fan of his today)

williamglenn said:

Floater said:

Francois Fillon calls for election to be suspended
The French presidential candidate has called for Sunday's presidential election first round to be suspended following the Paris attack.

Not sensible at all

Is it a mistranslation? I think he's calling for campaigning to be suspended tomorrow.

Sky not saying it - still up on Telegraph page

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

interesting rumours that Coyne is ahead of McCluskey

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/855160019721080832

hmmm and what happened today?

Please enlighten us, as you seem to have the inside track.

Cyan said:

Y0kel said:

SeanT said:

Y0kel said:

The frustrating thing for the French authorities is that the didn't merely suspect something (singular or plural) was going to occur over this week, they knew. They had been working to interdict it, but they often seem to be getting the outside borders of the jigsaw but not the bits in the middle that allow you to see a clear picture.

Suggestions there might be a Belgian connection but this may be early stage 2+2 = 5.

BBC reporting Pres Hollande as confirming it is terror, and also Reuters saying that there is a second suspect at large.

Belgian connection confirmed then. This was an organised IS controlled attack.

What was the target? The attack took place close to the Marks and Spencer store at no.100 on the Champs Elysées. The footage I have seen shows trouble occurring outside the Yves Rocher store next door, at no.102. If the attackers' car was driven on the right side of the road, then it came from the direction of the Place de la Concorde, in the direction of increasing numbers. The Jewish Chabad organisation has premises at no.122.

No idea at all, I just doubt this was mean't to be the sole mission.

In fact if the cops were all in a regular cop van at the time it was a sound target to hit: dense target, soft skinned vehicle, hard to respond from. You try getting your senses together and bringing your weapon to bear from inside a Renault Trafic Minibus. By the time you do, someone could be away.

The cops and military have been deliberate targets before both singularly and as part of wider shoot em ups. It could just be the anti-authority malcontent in a lot of these IS types, it could be instruction.

All I do know, is that the French have been doing their damnest to keep tabs on a lot of people in the run up to the elections but if this guy say just rolled into town in the hours leading up, possibly from out of jurisidiction, thats rough to work with.

Just placed a bet with Ladbrokes at 1.2 for Labour to get more votes at the GE than the LDs. Seems good value? I know things are bad for Labour, but surely more than an 80% chance of beating the LDs?

Halcyon days for Labour:
https://twitter.com/thediyora/status/854967729027252224

Just did a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation from yesterday's YouGov figures. Appears that Labour are approximately 38% behind the Tories amongst the over 50s as a whole.

Voters over 50 constitute very nearly half the entire electorate, and are much more likely to turn out than the younger cohorts. These are catastrophic numbers for Labour.

Oh, and the 2015 Ukip voter defection rate to the Tories has now increased to 4 in 10 (would like to see more evidence of this from other surveys, but the uptick very encouraging.) If Theresa May can even get that up to 1 in 2, then that's about an extra two million voters in the bag from that source alone.

Happy days.

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh

Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.

ToryJim said:

augustus_carp said:

Is any one else watching Emily Maitlis interviewing Andrew Gwynne MP on Newsnight? Killing him with kindness, but killing him all the same. Full marks to him, he seems to know that he doesn't have a product to sell, so he's trying to make a good job of it, but it's still not nearly good enough.

Yes May has caught them napping and it shows.

They are and always have been conscious. Conscious but insane.

MrsB said:

Just for the record, I have no problem with Jack Monroe calling themself whatever the hell they want, or with anyone wearing whatever the hell clothes they want (as long as they wear something, though. Nakedness does not appeal). Why do some posters want to force people into conformity? Some of the comments have been close to bigotry this evening.

A little more love and tolerance would not go amiss.

If she wore a horse suit, would you call her a horse?

Who has said she can't wear what she wants? Why is individual freedom your only premise? Calling a woman "she" isn't the same as saying she can't wear what she wants.

Do people have the right to have crazy crap recognised as sane? No they do not.

Any idea what might happen in Hampstead and Kilburn? Had been a 3-way marginal in 2010, made Tory-Lab marginal in 2015 by virtue of LD collapse

MrsB said:

Just for the record, I have no problem with Jack Monroe calling themself whatever the hell they want, or with anyone wearing whatever the hell clothes they want (as long as they wear something, though. Nakedness does not appeal). Why do some posters want to force people into conformity? Some of the comments have been close to bigotry this evening.

A little more love and tolerance would not go amiss. On this site and in the rest of the world.

Going to bed, thinking of Paris.

I take offence at your patronising tone and assumptions - it has nothing to do with tolerance or forcing people into conformity, my objection was going by 'they' is just needless confusing and so bloody pointless. I could ask people call me the great gonzo and it'd be as much of a statement, reading sinister motivations into peoples' annoyance at grammatical silliness and calling it bigotry is absurd, and demonstrative of the pointlessness of being so prissy about such a label, in that you make it a much bigger deal than it needs to be. In keeping with your wild assumptions and responding in kind, i can only assume 'they' and you do so because it makes you feel superior to the bigots (or those you exaggerate to appear so in your heads), those terrible bigots, who think adopting an existing plural pronoun for singular use is silly. The horror!

If I may permit myself a little smug self satisfaction, I think I'm generally polite and tolerant, but your seeing bigotry where none exists in the false presentation of defending toleration, has really got my back up.

MarkSenior said:

augustus_carp said:

Pulpstar said:

The turnout for the #Blacon by-election is 25.4% The result is expected after 11.45pm: http://cwac.co/FCFKM
0 replies 4 retweets 0 likes

Ridiculous! That's only a few hundred votes- maybe a thousand, tops. Why is Local Government so inefficient? A few bank tellers (or bookies) used to handling lots of small bits of paper could do the job in a few minutes.

It is around 2,600 votes

OK, sorry! In that case I take most of it back - but I still reckon that for one by-election the Council would have more people at their disposal to get the thing processed a lot quicker than in 1Hr 45Mins.

https://theoutline.com/post/1394/the-unbearable-wrongness-of-gwyneth-paltrow

Cookie said:

Just placed a bet with Ladbrokes at 1.2 for Labour to get more votes at the GE than the LDs. Seems good value? I know things are bad for Labour, but surely more than an 80% chance of beating the LDs?

Yep, the nearest thing you'll get to free money imho.