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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and abov

SystemSystem Posts: 12,552
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?

EXC: Tonight Tories on 48% in the first YouGov poll taken since Theresa May called election – highest since May 2008 pic.twitter.com/awaKs7V0Yv

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    Glorious First!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,856
    edited April 2017
    Second like Labour. For now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Third like Corbyn in a two horse race...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    RobD said:

    Glorious First!

    Like May, etc.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    I was first but my post disappeared! :(
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    What the hell is going on!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Maygasm
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,675
    edited April 2017
    We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.

    The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    Which is less than 24% of the seats in the Commons!

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    GIN1138 said:

    I was first but my post disappeared! :(

    Cue TSE blaming Vanilla Forums... :p
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    GIN1138 said:

    I was first but my post disappeared! :(

    You didn't wish a politician to die a horrible death did you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,047
    If you factor in a further Labour collapse and add some more to the Lib Dems, the Baxter predictions start to get pretty wild!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,307
    LibDem gains? Hmmmm.......not from the Tories.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Look forward to first journalist to remind Corbyn his lot are polling at their lowest ebb since 1987 - see Matt Singh on Twitter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,056
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    The question has to be at what level of support does UNS cease to function.

    For example if Labour get 15% and the Liberal Democrats 25% surely the latter will, whatever the official figures now, get more seats.

    As we saw in Scotland, FPTP doesn't guarantee survival and it can mean defenestration is sudden and brutal. If anyone can do such a disaster, Corbyn can.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    williamglenn said:

    If you factor in a further Labour collapse and add some more to the Lib Dems, the Baxter predictions start to get pretty wild!

    I know.. you may even get *two* Scottish Tory MPs.

    Someone pass the smelling salts.... :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I was first but my post disappeared! :(

    Cue TSE blaming Vanilla Forums... :p
    TSE probably removed it as revenge for Boy George's political career lying in tatters tonight...

    Like it's my fault! ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    I don't believe Kim Jong may is going to get anywhere near 50%.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    FPT @NickPalmer - I left Labour because I could not be a member of a party that whitewashes anti-semitism. However, I joined the Jewish Labour Movement, so I'll get a vote in any leadership election. I'm not an idiot :-)
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    A 24 point lead, and still Corbyn can potentially make things worse.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    It really won't, you know.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Twitter in hysterics at that poll, even though it is in line with previous polling. I can't take 50 days of this *opens Gin*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    I'll say it now

    Theresa May = Scipio Africanus

    Jeremy Corbyn = Hannibal
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I was first but my post disappeared! :(

    You didn't wish a politician to die a horrible death did you?
    No I told a certain bearded party leader to stick to his guns. ;)
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    numbertwelve said:

    We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.

    The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.

    Is this the UK's version of the South going GOP? The North minus inner cities goes Con?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'll say it now

    Theresa May = Scipio Africanus

    Jeremy Corbyn = Hannibal

    Not Scipio "Pound Shop" Africanus? :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    YouGov run by a Tory MP etc etc
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2017
    Something seemed to shift the polls at the end of last week, even though nothing notable happened in British politics.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/854807608145981440
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    Ahhhhh.. what a glorious time to be a PB Tory!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,937
    edited April 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    I am cautious about these huge poll leads but if they continue the narrative by the media could well push labour towards 20%. Indeed could the Lib Dems out poll labour in England. Extraordinary
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Holy crap - that is some lead
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    If we get a poll showing Tories only winning by 10%, there is going to be a meltdown!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    UKIP's previously reasonably solid 10-12 suddenly drooping - chance of that reviving if the narrative that a big majority encourages a soft brexit gains traction?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,047
    MTimT said:

    numbertwelve said:

    We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.

    The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.

    Is this the UK's version of the South going GOP? The North minus inner cities goes Con?
    And without the North, what point is there for metropolitan supporters to vote for a rump extremist fringe party?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    It's time for Mike to bring back the heads for each percentage point of advantage. It used to be a real usp of this site, back in ye olde days.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.

    He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Danczuk?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Oooo. Although if they are trailing it, surely it can't be that sensational?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,713
    May turning the coalfields blue methinks.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    That's a 15% swing from the 2013 equivalent:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    and postal votes will now be received for the local elections.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited April 2017
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Tony Blair > Lib-Dem ? Would they want him though? ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    Jeremy corbyn defects to the Tories to save labour?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    Labour up 1 - Socialism is on the rise, that's the story here.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    What was the all time record majority?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What the hell is going on!

    Evil BBC biased against St Corbyn - just ask his brother.

    This is going to be very, very brutal
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Danczuk?
    Probably Carswell

    Tory -> UKIP -> Independent -> Tory
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    It's me and George Osborne, we've joined UKIP
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    CarlottaVance said:

    Chuka Umunna‏ @ChukaUmunna
    Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship

    Er, Chuka luv, dictators don't usually call elections.....

    They do (most dictators thesedays implicitly accept democracy is a good thing by trying to present with some democratic legitimacy), but they fix them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Gisela Stuart? Carswell?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,675
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Gisela?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    It's just like Scotland between September 2014 and May 2015.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    Gah. I think I'm going to have to subscribe to The Times...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,446
    May would win the biggest Tory landslide since Baldwin in 1931 if this poll was correct
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Lab -> Lib?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    CarlottaVance said:

    Chuka Umunna‏ @ChukaUmunna
    Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship

    Er, Chuka luv, dictators don't usually call elections.....

    They do, but they fix them.
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Is there any obligation on Corbyn to resign if he does lose 100 or 150 seats?

    Seriously, we are used to red-eyed losers resigning on election night. But, Labour’s problems got far worse when a tearful EdM resigned after the election in 2015.

    I could imagine Jeremy may stay on to stabilise the ship.

    Certainly people used to stay on. Why not dear Jeremy?

    My brain is telling me that Labour cannot possibly do as bad as it looks like they will, but the evidence makes that hard.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,111
    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    TSE voting LibDem?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    What odds Tories to.get majority of votes in England?

    Which Will be higher: SNP share in Scotland or Tory share in England?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,922
    edited April 2017
    numbertwelve said:

    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Gisela?
    Amidst all her criticism this morning on R4 she did actually say she wanted people to vote Labour. So defecting later the same day would be truly bizarre.

    Carswell must already have a deal with the Tories, which he is cashing in earlier than expected. His evasion of the question about rejoining the Tories a few weeks back gave the game away.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
    Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Telegaph know what they want

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/04/19/voters-must-ask-fit-govern-britain/

    But above all it is an election about fitness to govern. It is the Labour Party’s misfortune – possibly a terminal one – to have been hijacked by the hard Left, which for many years was a tolerated fringe movement but is now in charge.

    However, Labour MPs have made their political bed and must now lie in it. But they cannot be allowed to foist upon the country a leader they do not even trust themselves. Moreover, this is a prospect that people must consider if they are tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    It's me and George Osborne, we've joined UKIP
    Mark Reckless has rejoined the Conservatives and is their candidate in Sheffield Hallam.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,675
    glw said:

    What was the all time record majority?

    1931 maybe?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
    Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!
    Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SandyRentool said:

    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    TSE voting LibDem?
    Mhhh a certain ex Kipper returning home?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    edited April 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    I don't believe Kim Jong may is going to get anywhere near 50%.
    No, but that the upper reaches of the polling reaches close to that level is still stunning.

    Some will definitely be disappointed if the Tories end up with a maj of only 60-80, silly as that would be.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    freetochoose said:

    A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.

    He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics

    Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    The Corbyn story is exactly what we needed. That should shake up this BORING election. The PLP can now split in the Commons on a point of principle - that Corbyn has refused to shoulder responsibility for his party, in favour of his own narrow, selfish aims. Split now. Appoint a leader in the Commons. Have a crack at it with Yvette as caretaker leader.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,836
    John Woodcock as the defector ?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    kle4 said:

    My brain is telling me that Labour cannot possibly do as bad as it looks like they will, but the evidence makes that hard.

    Scotland 2014/2015 was just the same.

    "They can't possibly lose all those seats."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,937
    numbertwelve said:

    glw said:

    What was the all time record majority?

    1931 maybe?
    That is some majority!!
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    numbertwelve said:

    We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.

    The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.

    Indeed, tonight's BBC vox pop from Bolton even more striking than last night's Newsnight. Diehard labour voters shifting to May, not the Conservatives, but May named explicitly.
    Really quite extraordinary, Brexit/Corybn combination has broken that generations of voting red tradition.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Given many pollsters hashed 2015 is there any chance they've reset the shy Tory issue?

    Betting post:

    Constituency to Watch: South Belfast

    One of 13 souls who voted no to the election being called, the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell caused me serious grief and monetary loss in 2015 by hanging on to his seat, complete with one of the lowest vote shares of any winning Westminster candidate in recent history, 24.5% and a 900 vote majority.

    I'd be curious on his odds this time round, if he stands. Sinn Fein, based on the Assembly elections did well and may well take a few more votes from the SDLP, but the main challenge is the DUP who lost out in 2015 thanks to a strong showing from the UKIP candidate, a local, well known and popular politician. Those 1900 votes killed the DUP off.

    For the DUP to have a chance, they need a proper candidate who can motivate a fairly lazy Unionist vote. Question is, do they have anyone?

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    HYUFD said:

    May would win the biggest Tory landslide since Baldwin in 1931 if this poll was correct

    Yup, it would be almost unprecedented.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited April 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    Chuka Umunna‏ @ChukaUmunna
    Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship

    That's the way the cookie crumbles under FPTP. Labour took themselves out of the game and threw themselves into oblivion when they elected Corbyn.

    That's not the Conservatives fault anymore than it was Blairs fault that the Tories destroyed themselves and went down to a 180 seat Labour landslide in 1997.

    But, the encouraging thing from Labour's perspective is that as FPTP gives so FPTP can take away... And it can do it surprisingly quickly. Ten years from now we might be talking about Labour (or some other party) being on course for a landslide that kicks out the Tories...
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    MTimT said:

    freetochoose said:

    A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.

    He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics

    Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.
    Yep, plenty of us said that history will judge them harshly, Cameron will be remembered as a disastrous PM, quite rightly.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    Doubt it. More likely they get disporportionately shelacked in the "marginals"* whilst holding on where Tories are third or have zero chance.

    *marginals here include seats that are never normally considered marginal like North East Bolton.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,675
    MTimT said:

    numbertwelve said:

    We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.

    The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.

    Is this the UK's version of the South going GOP? The North minus inner cities goes Con?
    Unscientific, but I was struck by an interview on BBC News tonight with a working class lady in Bolton. She did not appear to fit the profile of a Cameroon Tory voter at all, or a working-class Thatcherite. But was decided on voting for May this time.

    One opinion doesn't mean much, but if that's reflected more widely, we could be looking at the sort of shift you mention.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    GIN1138 said:

    ToryJim said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854806057893449728

    Tony Blair > Lib-Dem ? Would they want him though? ;)
    well I certainly wouldn't. There are limits to the tolerance of even a tolerant party.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    Hoey to UKIP? Its the long hours of baseless speculation that makes these weeks of GE campaigning so enjoyable.

    Vox pop in The Mirror in Wakefield seems to suggest we're seeing the UK equivalent of the Reagan Democrats - general gist is May has delivered, UKIP are now pointless and Jezza is a useless pillock.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    Why do I get the feeling this general election will either make me as rich as Croesus* or very poor.

    *Creases for PBers of a certain vintage
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    .
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Is there any obligation on Corbyn to resign if he does lose 100 or 150 seats?

    Seriously, we are used to red-eyed losers resigning on election night. But, Labour’s problems got far worse when a tearful EdM resigned after the election in 2015.

    I could imagine Jeremy may stay on to stabilise the ship.

    Certainly people used to stay on. Why not dear Jeremy?
    Jonathan said:

    There are valid criticisms of Corbyn. But some of what we're seeing now is borderline hysterical.

    Perhaps, although the problem is of course that much is believable nevertheless.

    It may be unfair, but that's life for you.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If this were Australia, Canada or New Zealand, Corbyn's MPs would remove him just after Parliament is dissolved. But this is Britain so they'll probably wring their hands instead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    edited April 2017
    Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.

    I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If we get a poll showing Tories only winning by 10%, there is going to be a meltdown!

    We had an Opinium with a 9% lead a couple of days ago, IIRC. Generally regarded as an outlier.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    I am cautious about these huge poll leads but if they continue the narrative by the media could well push labour towards 20%. Indeed could the Lib Dems out poll labour in England. Extraordinary
    The LDs won't outpoll Labour, or anywhere close, in England as a whole - but they might very well do it in the South.
    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    Haven't seen tables yet, but (other than noise) main change appears to be a further movement from Ukip to Con, not a complete meltdown of Labour. Ukip haven't been this low with YouGov for a long time, I believe.

    It could just be an outlier. If a series of polls reinforces the findings however, then that's another 500,000 to 1,000,000 extra Ukip voters moving into the Tory column. The "Brexit election" already bearing fruit for Theresa May...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,808
    Con maj back price went out on Betfair from 1.17 to 1.2 after release of YouGov.

    Now back to 1.19 back / 1.22 lay.

    Seems odd.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    another_richard said:

    John Woodcock as the defector ?

    If he wants to keep his job!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    May would win the biggest Tory landslide since Baldwin in 1931 if this poll was correct

    Alex Baldwin was Prime Minister!? And I didn't realize he was that old. I guess he has been around for ever.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    numbertwelve said:

    glw said:

    What was the all time record majority?

    1931 maybe?
    It looks like it is, unless someone knows better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,993
    another_richard said:

    John Woodcock as the defector ?

    A day after saying 'I will seek Labour nomination'?
    nunu said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    Doubt it. More likely they get disporportionately shelacked in the "marginals"* whilst holding on where Tories are third or have zero chance.

    *marginals here include seats that are never normally considered marginal like North East Bolton.
    Maybe. The only way I believe these latest polls is if, conversely, Tories may well be doing great in the marginals, but also piling up votes in safe seats, so won't pressure any moderately large labour seats.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,922
    edited April 2017
    ydoethur said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.

    The question has to be at what level of support does UNS cease to function.

    For example if Labour get 15% and the Liberal Democrats 25% surely the latter will, whatever the official figures now, get more seats.

    As we saw in Scotland, FPTP doesn't guarantee survival and it can mean defenestration is sudden and brutal. If anyone can do such a disaster, Corbyn can.
    UNS will be next to useless in forecasting this election. There is no reason why any NS should be U. Or indeed N. And using 2015 as a base, when so much has changed since, will be equally misleading.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,581
    edited April 2017
    Feel sorry for all those Tory paper candidates who never expected to become MPs in a couple of months but might now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,226
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.

    I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.

    William Glenn has been working his magic on other forums too?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    freetochoose said:

    MTimT said:

    freetochoose said:

    A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.

    He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics

    Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.
    Yep, plenty of us said that history will judge them harshly, Cameron will be remembered as a disastrous PM, quite rightly.
    Perhaps. But, at least Cameron passed on a functioning party.

    The effect of Blair, Brown & Miliband has been to wreck a functioning party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,294
    rBlack ock I am aware of that...I meant going forward now we seemed to have witnessed some unexplainable Tory surge in the polls. A more "normal" (by current standards) would have some in meltdown.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:

    kle4 said:

    OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?

    I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.
    Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!
    Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...
    A bloke my wife went to school with lives in Morden, keen to vote Labour

    However was speaking to a relative of my wife at a funeral today who is a Labour Councillor.

    Lets just say he is not overly positive.

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