politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and abov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?
EXC: Tonight Tories on 48% in the first YouGov poll taken since Theresa May called election – highest since May 2008 pic.twitter.com/awaKs7V0Yv
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Glorious First!0
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Second like Labour. For now.0
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Third like Corbyn in a two horse race...0
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I was first but my post disappeared!
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Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
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What the hell is going on!0
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Maygasm0
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We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.
The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.0 -
Which is less than 24% of the seats in the Commons!foxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
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You didn't wish a politician to die a horrible death did you?GIN1138 said:I was first but my post disappeared!
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OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?0
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If you factor in a further Labour collapse and add some more to the Lib Dems, the Baxter predictions start to get pretty wild!0
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LibDem gains? Hmmmm.......not from the Tories.0
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Look forward to first journalist to remind Corbyn his lot are polling at their lowest ebb since 1987 - see Matt Singh on Twitter.0
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The question has to be at what level of support does UNS cease to function.foxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
For example if Labour get 15% and the Liberal Democrats 25% surely the latter will, whatever the official figures now, get more seats.
As we saw in Scotland, FPTP doesn't guarantee survival and it can mean defenestration is sudden and brutal. If anyone can do such a disaster, Corbyn can.0 -
I know.. you may even get *two* Scottish Tory MPs.williamglenn said:If you factor in a further Labour collapse and add some more to the Lib Dems, the Baxter predictions start to get pretty wild!
Someone pass the smelling salts....
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I don't believe Kim Jong may is going to get anywhere near 50%.kle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
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FPT @NickPalmer - I left Labour because I could not be a member of a party that whitewashes anti-semitism. However, I joined the Jewish Labour Movement, so I'll get a vote in any leadership election. I'm not an idiot :-)0
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A 24 point lead, and still Corbyn can potentially make things worse.0
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It really won't, you know.foxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
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Twitter in hysterics at that poll, even though it is in line with previous polling. I can't take 50 days of this *opens Gin*0
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I'll say it now
Theresa May = Scipio Africanus
Jeremy Corbyn = Hannibal0 -
No I told a certain bearded party leader to stick to his guns.FrancisUrquhart said:
You didn't wish a politician to die a horrible death did you?GIN1138 said:I was first but my post disappeared!
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Is this the UK's version of the South going GOP? The North minus inner cities goes Con?numbertwelve said:We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.
The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.0 -
Not Scipio "Pound Shop" Africanus?TheScreamingEagles said:I'll say it now
Theresa May = Scipio Africanus
Jeremy Corbyn = Hannibal
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YouGov run by a Tory MP etc etckle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
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Something seemed to shift the polls at the end of last week, even though nothing notable happened in British politics.0
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Ahhhhh.. what a glorious time to be a PB Tory!0
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I am cautious about these huge poll leads but if they continue the narrative by the media could well push labour towards 20%. Indeed could the Lib Dems out poll labour in England. Extraordinaryfoxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
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Holy crap - that is some lead0
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If we get a poll showing Tories only winning by 10%, there is going to be a meltdown!0
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UKIP's previously reasonably solid 10-12 suddenly drooping - chance of that reviving if the narrative that a big majority encourages a soft brexit gains traction?0
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And without the North, what point is there for metropolitan supporters to vote for a rump extremist fringe party?MTimT said:
Is this the UK's version of the South going GOP? The North minus inner cities goes Con?numbertwelve said:We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.
The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.0 -
It's time for Mike to bring back the heads for each percentage point of advantage. It used to be a real usp of this site, back in ye olde days.0
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A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics0 -
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Oooo. Although if they are trailing it, surely it can't be that sensational?ToryJim said:0 -
May turning the coalfields blue methinks.0
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That's a 15% swing from the 2013 equivalent:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
and postal votes will now be received for the local elections.0 -
Tony Blair > Lib-Dem ? Would they want him though?ToryJim said: 0 -
Jeremy corbyn defects to the Tories to save labour?0
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Labour up 1 - Socialism is on the rise, that's the story here.0
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What was the all time record majority?0
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Evil BBC biased against St Corbyn - just ask his brother.FrancisUrquhart said:What the hell is going on!
This is going to be very, very brutal0 -
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I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.kle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
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It's me and George Osborne, we've joined UKIPToryJim said:0 -
They do (most dictators thesedays implicitly accept democracy is a good thing by trying to present with some democratic legitimacy), but they fix them.CarlottaVance said:Chuka Umunna @ChukaUmunna
Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship
Er, Chuka luv, dictators don't usually call elections.....0 -
Gisela Stuart? Carswell?ToryJim said:0 -
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It's just like Scotland between September 2014 and May 2015.0
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Gah. I think I'm going to have to subscribe to The Times...0
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May would win the biggest Tory landslide since Baldwin in 1931 if this poll was correct0
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They do, but they fix them.CarlottaVance said:Chuka Umunna @ChukaUmunna
Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship
Er, Chuka luv, dictators don't usually call elections.....
Certainly people used to stay on. Why not dear Jeremy?YBarddCwsc said:Is there any obligation on Corbyn to resign if he does lose 100 or 150 seats?
Seriously, we are used to red-eyed losers resigning on election night. But, Labour’s problems got far worse when a tearful EdM resigned after the election in 2015.
I could imagine Jeremy may stay on to stabilise the ship.
My brain is telling me that Labour cannot possibly do as bad as it looks like they will, but the evidence makes that hard.0 -
TSE voting LibDem?ToryJim said:0 -
What odds Tories to.get majority of votes in England?
Which Will be higher: SNP share in Scotland or Tory share in England?0 -
Amidst all her criticism this morning on R4 she did actually say she wanted people to vote Labour. So defecting later the same day would be truly bizarre.numbertwelve said:
Carswell must already have a deal with the Tories, which he is cashing in earlier than expected. His evasion of the question about rejoining the Tories a few weeks back gave the game away.0 -
Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!MTimT said:
I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.kle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
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Telegaph know what they want
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/04/19/voters-must-ask-fit-govern-britain/
But above all it is an election about fitness to govern. It is the Labour Party’s misfortune – possibly a terminal one – to have been hijacked by the hard Left, which for many years was a tolerated fringe movement but is now in charge.
However, Labour MPs have made their political bed and must now lie in it. But they cannot be allowed to foist upon the country a leader they do not even trust themselves. Moreover, this is a prospect that people must consider if they are tempted to vote for the Liberal Democrats.0 -
Mark Reckless has rejoined the Conservatives and is their candidate in Sheffield Hallam.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's me and George Osborne, we've joined UKIPToryJim said:
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1931 maybe?glw said:What was the all time record majority?
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Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...kle4 said:
Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!MTimT said:
I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.kle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
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Mhhh a certain ex Kipper returning home?SandyRentool said:
TSE voting LibDem?ToryJim said:0 -
No, but that the upper reaches of the polling reaches close to that level is still stunning.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't believe Kim Jong may is going to get anywhere near 50%.kle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
Some will definitely be disappointed if the Tories end up with a maj of only 60-80, silly as that would be.0 -
Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.freetochoose said:A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics0 -
The Corbyn story is exactly what we needed. That should shake up this BORING election. The PLP can now split in the Commons on a point of principle - that Corbyn has refused to shoulder responsibility for his party, in favour of his own narrow, selfish aims. Split now. Appoint a leader in the Commons. Have a crack at it with Yvette as caretaker leader.0
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John Woodcock as the defector ?
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That is some majority!!numbertwelve said:0 -
Indeed, tonight's BBC vox pop from Bolton even more striking than last night's Newsnight. Diehard labour voters shifting to May, not the Conservatives, but May named explicitly.numbertwelve said:We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.
The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.
Really quite extraordinary, Brexit/Corybn combination has broken that generations of voting red tradition.0 -
Given many pollsters hashed 2015 is there any chance they've reset the shy Tory issue?
Betting post:
Constituency to Watch: South Belfast
One of 13 souls who voted no to the election being called, the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell caused me serious grief and monetary loss in 2015 by hanging on to his seat, complete with one of the lowest vote shares of any winning Westminster candidate in recent history, 24.5% and a 900 vote majority.
I'd be curious on his odds this time round, if he stands. Sinn Fein, based on the Assembly elections did well and may well take a few more votes from the SDLP, but the main challenge is the DUP who lost out in 2015 thanks to a strong showing from the UKIP candidate, a local, well known and popular politician. Those 1900 votes killed the DUP off.
For the DUP to have a chance, they need a proper candidate who can motivate a fairly lazy Unionist vote. Question is, do they have anyone?
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That's the way the cookie crumbles under FPTP. Labour took themselves out of the game and threw themselves into oblivion when they elected Corbyn.CarlottaVance said:Chuka Umunna @ChukaUmunna
Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship
That's not the Conservatives fault anymore than it was Blairs fault that the Tories destroyed themselves and went down to a 180 seat Labour landslide in 1997.
But, the encouraging thing from Labour's perspective is that as FPTP gives so FPTP can take away... And it can do it surprisingly quickly. Ten years from now we might be talking about Labour (or some other party) being on course for a landslide that kicks out the Tories...0 -
Yep, plenty of us said that history will judge them harshly, Cameron will be remembered as a disastrous PM, quite rightly.MTimT said:
Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.freetochoose said:A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics0 -
Doubt it. More likely they get disporportionately shelacked in the "marginals"* whilst holding on where Tories are third or have zero chance.foxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
*marginals here include seats that are never normally considered marginal like North East Bolton.0 -
Unscientific, but I was struck by an interview on BBC News tonight with a working class lady in Bolton. She did not appear to fit the profile of a Cameroon Tory voter at all, or a working-class Thatcherite. But was decided on voting for May this time.MTimT said:
Is this the UK's version of the South going GOP? The North minus inner cities goes Con?numbertwelve said:We could (just could) be seeing a shocking realignment in UK politics.
The Northern Labour firewall could absolutely crumble with working class Brexit supporters going to the Tories. There is no way that Cameron could have managed that, even against Corbyn.
One opinion doesn't mean much, but if that's reflected more widely, we could be looking at the sort of shift you mention.0 -
Hoey to UKIP? Its the long hours of baseless speculation that makes these weeks of GE campaigning so enjoyable.
Vox pop in The Mirror in Wakefield seems to suggest we're seeing the UK equivalent of the Reagan Democrats - general gist is May has delivered, UKIP are now pointless and Jezza is a useless pillock.0 -
Why do I get the feeling this general election will either make me as rich as Croesus* or very poor.
*Creases for PBers of a certain vintage0 -
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Certainly people used to stay on. Why not dear Jeremy?YBarddCwsc said:Is there any obligation on Corbyn to resign if he does lose 100 or 150 seats?
Seriously, we are used to red-eyed losers resigning on election night. But, Labour’s problems got far worse when a tearful EdM resigned after the election in 2015.
I could imagine Jeremy may stay on to stabilise the ship.
Perhaps, although the problem is of course that much is believable nevertheless.Jonathan said:There are valid criticisms of Corbyn. But some of what we're seeing now is borderline hysterical.
It may be unfair, but that's life for you.0 -
If this were Australia, Canada or New Zealand, Corbyn's MPs would remove him just after Parliament is dissolved. But this is Britain so they'll probably wring their hands instead.0
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Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.0 -
We had an Opinium with a 9% lead a couple of days ago, IIRC. Generally regarded as an outlier.FrancisUrquhart said:If we get a poll showing Tories only winning by 10%, there is going to be a meltdown!
The LDs won't outpoll Labour, or anywhere close, in England as a whole - but they might very well do it in the South.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am cautious about these huge poll leads but if they continue the narrative by the media could well push labour towards 20%. Indeed could the Lib Dems out poll labour in England. Extraordinaryfoxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
Haven't seen tables yet, but (other than noise) main change appears to be a further movement from Ukip to Con, not a complete meltdown of Labour. Ukip haven't been this low with YouGov for a long time, I believe.kle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
It could just be an outlier. If a series of polls reinforces the findings however, then that's another 500,000 to 1,000,000 extra Ukip voters moving into the Tory column. The "Brexit election" already bearing fruit for Theresa May...0 -
Con maj back price went out on Betfair from 1.17 to 1.2 after release of YouGov.
Now back to 1.19 back / 1.22 lay.
Seems odd.0 -
If he wants to keep his job!another_richard said:John Woodcock as the defector ?
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It looks like it is, unless someone knows better.numbertwelve said:0 -
A day after saying 'I will seek Labour nomination'?another_richard said:John Woodcock as the defector ?
Maybe. The only way I believe these latest polls is if, conversely, Tories may well be doing great in the marginals, but also piling up votes in safe seats, so won't pressure any moderately large labour seats.nunu said:
Doubt it. More likely they get disporportionately shelacked in the "marginals"* whilst holding on where Tories are third or have zero chance.foxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
*marginals here include seats that are never normally considered marginal like North East Bolton.0 -
UNS will be next to useless in forecasting this election. There is no reason why any NS should be U. Or indeed N. And using 2015 as a base, when so much has changed since, will be equally misleading.ydoethur said:
The question has to be at what level of support does UNS cease to function.foxinsoxuk said:Even this extreme lead give Labour near 150 seats.
For example if Labour get 15% and the Liberal Democrats 25% surely the latter will, whatever the official figures now, get more seats.
As we saw in Scotland, FPTP doesn't guarantee survival and it can mean defenestration is sudden and brutal. If anyone can do such a disaster, Corbyn can.0 -
Feel sorry for all those Tory paper candidates who never expected to become MPs in a couple of months but might now.0
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William Glenn has been working his magic on other forums too?FrancisUrquhart said:Can those in the know check if the polling companies have done any twiddling their models in the past week or so / anything weird in the data tables.
I am just really struggling to work out what has happened over the past week to move 15% leads to 20%+ leads.0 -
Perhaps. But, at least Cameron passed on a functioning party.freetochoose said:
Yep, plenty of us said that history will judge them harshly, Cameron will be remembered as a disastrous PM, quite rightly.MTimT said:
Probably feels like an abject lesson to Cammo and Osbo.freetochoose said:A penny for Cameron's thoughts, this time last year he was bumming up with world leaders and planning his next 4 years as PM.
He should be an object lesson in hubris and politics
The effect of Blair, Brown & Miliband has been to wreck a functioning party.
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rBlack ock I am aware of that...I meant going forward now we seemed to have witnessed some unexplainable Tory surge in the polls. A more "normal" (by current standards) would have some in meltdown.0
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A bloke my wife went to school with lives in Morden, keen to vote LabourFrancisUrquhart said:
Well nobody is admitting they want to vote for corbyn on here...kle4 said:
Yes, why would there be any shy Tories now? Shy Labour is more likely!MTimT said:
I think with numbers like these in the polls, I'd be looking at the polls' in-house corrections. Whatever needed to be applied in 2015 probably should not be applied with the Cons this far out in front. So if they are correcting for shy/difficult to get hold of Tories, let's strip that out straight away to get to a more realistic figure for the current situation.kle4 said:OK, this is getting silly now. I don't mean to sound to a Corbynista, but how can such numbers be possible?
However was speaking to a relative of my wife at a funeral today who is a Labour Councillor.
Lets just say he is not overly positive.
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