politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 looks such a certainty that it could end up like GE2001
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As has been repeatedly pointed out, this is fake news.edmundintokyo said:Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
We do not know that they are all or even mostly Tories (& I linked yesterday to a specific LibDem in trouble and already fined the maximum in Ceredigion). And we do not know that they are going to be prosecuted.
We know ~ 30 people (including the LibDem agent in Ceredigion) have had files passed to the CPS.
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Mundell to hold & Berwickshire ?JPJ2 said:Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
Carmichael is safe as houses (Thanks @MalcolmG) but any gains are quite hard !
Edinburgh South to be lost I suspect to the SNP but (very) outside chance of Tories.0 -
Perhaps.YBarddCwsc said:
NM doesn’t seem the type to go quietly into the night.Theuniondivvie said:
Not sure, but I'd doubt it.YBarddCwsc said:
Are McGarry & Thomson standing as well ?Theuniondivvie said:
I think folk are offering themselves as SNP candidates for both these constituencies.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Malcolm I agree.malcolmg said:
Alastair,Alistair said:
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.HYUFD said:
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)SouthamObserver said:
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.kle4 said:Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
Gnomic tweeting from NM.
https://twitter.com/NMcGarryMP/status/854310674826231808
Natalie M-M @NatalieMcgarry 23m23 minutes ago
Deleted earlier tweets as want nothing quotable used by self serving types. But thanks all.
MT maybe does.
NM is certainly the one with more serious questions to answer, she's also a career politician (or gives every indication of wanting to be one). One way to burn her boats with the SNP would be to stay snarling in the manger as an independent.
Edit: apols for mixed metaphor!0 -
Tezza said yesterday the reason she needs the GE is opposition to her plan.Philip_Thompson said:Besides there's no reason why May would need to go down the no confidence route. The alternative is that she takes the gift of Corbyn having humiliated Labour to a new record low by rejecting the early general election and votes AGAINST any no confidence motion and continues to govern.
Corbyn "providing opposition to her plan" would give her no excuse for then opposing the GE she just called for.
She would look weak and indicisive.
But Labour will gift her exactly what she asked for. Again.0 -
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.edmundintokyo said:Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
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All that risk, effort and expense for just another 10 or so MPs overall .... hardly a triumph is it?MarqueeMark said:
Nice block of blue gingham there..... I still somehow feel it won't be quite that impressive, come the day. But a majority north of thirty will nicely do the job.peter_from_putney said:
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.TheScreamingEagles said:
Make your mind up Laddie!0 -
Having a majority of 50, never mind 150, would certainly mean that she couldn't be held hostage in parliament by EU-phobic MPs and you're right that this isn't a crusade for her. On the other hand, I do think that she regards it both as a matter of honour to implement Brexit as conceived in the referendum campaign (i.e. outside CJEU, outside freedom of movement and with substantially reduced annual payments). It's also politically expedient for her to deliver that as it's what's keeping the 25-30% of 2015 UKIP voters now in the Con column there.FrankBooth said:
But in the end she is on the more moderate side of the party and has never been a committed Brexiter. She can set out her vision in the campaign and with a substantial majority sideline the most extreme Brexit voices. Presumably just some transition deal which I think most people could live with.david_herdson said:
I doubt she will think that.williamglenn said:
May might get more than she bargained for if she thinks a bigger majority will help her achieve a soft Brexit.TheScreamingEagles said:I didn't know that Momentum had a Tory branch
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/854612615192092672
A big Con majority won by virtue of swings from UKIP and from Lab/LD Leavers is not a mandate for a soft Brexit and if that's the way those voters perceive things going, they'll melt away like snow in April.
I don't honestly think that there's all that much wriggle room even if she has a large majority. Her big thing was about the One Nation vision. Mostly by accident, the polls have come into line with that and the C2DE Con share is close to the same as the ABC1 share. If she wants to deliver on her vision then she needs to appeal to the values and interests of both.0 -
She wouldn't be opposing the GE. SHE WILL HAVE VOTED FOR A GE.What part of that are you struggling to understand? If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.Scott_P said:
Tezza said yesterday the reason she needs the GE is opposition to her plan.Philip_Thompson said:Besides there's no reason why May would need to go down the no confidence route. The alternative is that she takes the gift of Corbyn having humiliated Labour to a new record low by rejecting the early general election and votes AGAINST any no confidence motion and continues to govern.
Corbyn "providing opposition to her plan" would give her no excuse for then opposing the GE she just called for.
She would look weak and indicisive.
But Labour will gift her exactly what she asked for. Again.0 -
Incidentally Scott if she opposes a no confidence Motion and is challenged why she is opposing an early election she can just file a second early election Motion and ask if Labour still oppose it.0
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Yes, they do.Philip_Thompson said:If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?0 -
Looks like another 46 or so to me.peter_from_putney said:
All that risk, effort and expense for just another 10 or so MPs overall .... hardly a triumph is it?MarqueeMark said:
Nice block of blue gingham there..... I still somehow feel it won't be quite that impressive, come the day. But a majority north of thirty will nicely do the job.peter_from_putney said:
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.TheScreamingEagles said:
Make your mind up Laddie!0 -
That's exactly the kind of nuance the opposition should be making the Prime Minister go on telly to explain.FrancisUrquhart said:
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.edmundintokyo said:Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
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No she doesn't, she can stand in front of a microphone and say "I have confidence in my government and will vote for an early election". The motion before the House will not be an early election motion so she is fully entitled to vote against that.Scott_P said:
Yes, they do.Philip_Thompson said:If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?0 -
The Budget would have been a lot better if this was a long time in the makingSimonStClare said:
Don’t rate conspiracy theories, this looks more like a very late decision by the PM imo.another_richard said:Re the LibDem threat to the Conservatives.
Over Easter there were plenty of rumours about this secret Conservative poll that showed them at risk of losing several seats in the south-west to the LibDems.
Yet at the same time the Conservatives were very secretly arranging a general election.
WITHOUT ANY RUMOURS APPEARING
Is it not possible that this secret poll showing the LibDems doing well was just part of a Conservative diversion plan and that the LibDem threat is less than we were led to believe.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.0 -
Bearing in mind that seat loss will count the two former-SNP Independents if they lose I can definitely see 2 nailed on losses - Ed West & BRS. Then it comes down to turnout. I think 10 is the absolute maximum the SNP will lose (assuming no campaign disasters) and that is at the far end of probability.malcolmg said:
Alastair,Alistair said:
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.HYUFD said:
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)SouthamObserver said:
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.kle4 said:Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
I need to check my spreadsheets and shit to workout where I think the vulnerable seats are.
So no bet yet but maybes in a bit.0 -
If you're explaining, you're losing.edmundintokyo said:
That's exactly the kind of nuance the opposition should be making the Prime Minister go on telly to explain.FrancisUrquhart said:
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.edmundintokyo said:Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
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I wonder if McCluskey would have a word in Corbyn's ear if Labour performs badly in the local elections on May 4th. That could set the cat amongst the pidgeons.0
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In Scotland it won't be about the seats. It will be about the voteshare. If the SNP repeat their 50% performance from two years ago then they have an unambiguous mandate for another referendum. If they plus the Greens plus the head banging fringe parties have 50% (which is a much more probable result) then the mandate is still clear. However, if they come up short - say that group has around 46-47% and Unionists parties just tick over 50% - then it's hard to see the SNP losing large numbers of seats and equally hard to claim a mandate for a second referendum.JPJ2 said:Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
In making this vote a vote on a second independence referendum Sturgeon is clearly appealing to her base (heck, that's the reason she's calling for one in the first place at an inauspicious time, safe in the knowledge May would block it and save her the embarrassment of losing). But I wonder if it is a wise strategy. It does give the Unionist parties a clear message and an excuse to vote tactically. Admittedly that won't help with the tribal Labour vote but almost none of that survives anyway, having flipped to the SNP long ago.
For both it's a high-risk strategy. The outcome could be interesting.0 -
There can’t be any successful prosecutions if the PM and the LOTO discuss it on prime time TV in the absence of any of the actual evidence.edmundintokyo said:
That's exactly the kind of nuance the opposition should be making the Prime Minister go on telly to explain.FrancisUrquhart said:
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.edmundintokyo said:Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
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And that is what you are doing. People can be made to look ridiculously incompetent even if they aren't, and that is political death. And there is ridiculous incompetence at work here: the tory party hoist by that idiot Osborne's self-before-party, party-before-country petard.RoyalBlue said:
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.Scott_P said:
It's not about Parliamentary procedure.RoyalBlue said:The only people who care about parliamentary procedure post on this website. It doesn't matter at all.
It's about Labour MPs being able to put on their election leaflets "The PM doesn't have confidence in a Tory Government. Why should you?" instead of "The PM said jump and Labour asked 'How High?'"
Sometimes people here really miss the wood for the trees.
And this site collectively (if not you individually) needs to make its mind up: either the electorate is so sophisticated that it could clearly explain the operation of the FTPA and the reasons behind it in 5 minutes, or it is so stupid that you can herd more than half of it through the "Leave" gate by painting 350m on the side of a bus. Which?
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Yes Brenda....I agree with Brenda...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.0 -
aww go on you big jessie, JPJ2 will be enjoying independence from Solihullmalcolmg said:
Just a case of when.JPJ2 said:Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
tell you what malc since theyre all bored I'll give you a fun bet £20 says Salmond loses his seat proceeds to the site.0 -
Makes Ladbrokes' 8/1 against the LibDems winning between 30 - 39 seats (equivalent to between 6 - 8 Black Cabs full) look distinctly tasty.Richard_Nabavi said:Hidden inside Polly's mad rant are a few nuggets about Sir Lynton Crosby's guesstimates of the seat changes:
...an estimated 126 majority... Lib Dem’s crystal clear pro-EU stance destined, thinks Crosby, to regain 27 seats lost to Tories in 2015...0 -
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LD John Pugh standing down.
http://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/news/southport-news/john-pugh-stand-down-mp-129119530 -
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)0 -
St Vince on Sky offering himself to save the nation.0
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If what you are suggesting transpired, all we would see was an endless argument over technicalities that would bore everyone and get us nowhereScott_P said:
Yes, they do.Philip_Thompson said:If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?
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Now is not the time..Scott_P said:0 -
We already known though...its a red, white and blue brexit.Scott_P said:0 -
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Makes it vulnerable, Tory and Lib Dem shares to both go up I think.dr_spyn said:LD John Pugh standing down.
http://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/news/southport-news/john-pugh-stand-down-mp-129119530 -
Len has his own election to win.justin124 said:I wonder if McCluskey would have a word in Corbyn's ear if Labour performs badly in the local elections on May 4th. That could set the cat amongst the pidgeons.
But in any case, if the idea of MPs mounting a coup in the middle of normal parliamentary activity set the membership off, what on earth would having the leader taken out by the unions on the eve of an election campaign.
And even if Corbyn played along - which he wouldn't, but let's run with it - then what? Who leads and on what mandate? What happens to the manifesto? How will candidates look who've taken the risk of putting Corbyn on their leaflets?
No, Labour is stuck with JC now.0 -
PM wouldn't need to, PM can vote for an election and repeatedly vote for an election until Lab do so too if need be.Scott_P said:
"PM votes No Confidence in her own Government"TOPPING said:The GBP would not be as alive to the minutiae and tricksiness of such a Lab move.
Headline in every newspaper.
The GBP wouldn't get it?
Head. Desk. Bang.
Head. Desk. Bang.0 -
Unless he’s offering himself up as a human sacrifice to the gods, we're not interested..frpenkridge said:St Vince on Sky offering himself to save the nation.
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Hi Alanbrooke,
I remember exchanging e mails with you when you (being Northern Irish where they do that sort of thing) thought my tongue in cheek post about Scotland having major territorial ambitions in England was for real :-)
As you are Northern Irish but living in England I assume you will never comment on Northern Ireland matters-oh wait a minute, not only will you do that, you will actually comment on Scottish politics......
Just teasing you in return.
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I would love to see Denis Skinner get up in the House and say ' You may be a Vicar's daughter but you are certainly a lying bitch!'.0
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Does that put Southport in play for the tories? No idea if John Pugh has much of a personal vote (as whilst I suspect i must heard of him, I could not have told yo uhis name) ... Lots of Kippers to squeeze too I see0
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That would be wholly alien to the great traditions of PB, but that wouldn't mean it got nowhere. It was an endless argument over technicalities that decided Indyref.isam said:
If what you are suggesting transpired, all we would see was an endless argument over technicalities that would bore everyone and get us nowhereScott_P said:
Yes, they do.Philip_Thompson said:If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?0 -
In a sane and normal world she would be hammered on this.Scott_P said:
UKIP have got to fancy their chances in a carefully selected set of seats.0 -
What people would see is May calling for an election & Corbyn bottling it. They wouldn't see "PM votes No Confidence in her own Government" because she wouldn't do itScott_P said:
"PM votes No Confidence in her own Government"TOPPING said:The GBP would not be as alive to the minutiae and tricksiness of such a Lab move.
Headline in every newspaper.
The GBP wouldn't get it?
Head. Desk. Bang.0 -
Still confident Labour will get 35%?justin124 said:I would love to see Denis Skinner get up in the House and say ' You may be a Vicar's daughter but you are certainly a lying bitch!'.
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I comment on NI matters quite frquently, but unlike you I considfer myself to be living in my own country - the United Kingdom - so quite happy to comment on whats happening in our many fantastic and quirky regions,.JPJ2 said:Hi Alanbrooke,
I remember exchanging e mails with you when you (being Northern Irish where they do that sort of thing) thought my tongue in cheek post about Scotland having major territorial ambitions in England was for real :-)
As you are Northern Irish but living in England I assume you will never comment on Northern Ireland matters-oh wait a minute, not only will you do that, you will actually comment on Scottish politics......
Just teasing you in return.
Scotland included :-)0 -
Well, we have been arguing about it for 2 days now so 5 mins looks unlikely.Ishmael_Z said:And this site collectively (if not you individually) needs to make its mind up: either the electorate is so sophisticated that it could clearly explain the operation of the FTPA and the reasons behind it in 5 minutes,
Therefore this .....
... looks like the winner.Ishmael_Z said:or it is so stupid that you can herd more than half of it through the "Leave" gate by painting 350m on the side of a bus.
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I think some people on here have been spending too much time in the sun! Just to be clear thats in the sun, not reading the sun.0
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By 2020 yes.Philip_Thompson said:
Still confident Labour will get 35%?justin124 said:I would love to see Denis Skinner get up in the House and say ' You may be a Vicar's daughter but you are certainly a lying bitch!'.
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Residual Ukip bias notwithstanding, I think 3.5 to win a seat is quite good. If I can remember who it's with I might back it.Alistair said:
In a sane and normal world she would be hammered on this.Scott_P said:
UKIP have got to fancy their chances in a carefully selected set of seats.
Any one want to lay it?0 -
Do you wantisam said:
Residual Ukip bias notwithstanding, I think 3.5 to win a seat is quite good. If I can remember who it's with I might back it.Alistair said:
In a sane and normal world she would be hammered on this.Scott_P said:
UKIP have got to fancy their chances in a carefully selected set of seats.
Any one want to lay it?
-20/+50 - UKIP badge ONLY0 -
Isn't that pretty much the point of the LibDems?SimonStClare said:
Unless he’s offering himself up as a human sacrifice to the gods, we're not interested..frpenkridge said:St Vince on Sky offering himself to save the nation.
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John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-reveals-he-will-seek-another-term-as-speaker-a3517886.html0 -
Nicola in photocall at Westminster as the SNP decide to abstain. Adam Boulton 'wasn't much point in coming down to Westminster then'0
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"Labour Frit."Scott_P said:
"PM votes No Confidence in her own Government"TOPPING said:The GBP would not be as alive to the minutiae and tricksiness of such a Lab move.
Headline in every newspaper.
The GBP wouldn't get it?
Head. Desk. Bang.
Headline in every newspaper, blog, website and Hello Magazine.
C'mon Scott get down and dirty with the British Public. It's warm and cosy down here.0 -
how do you rate his chances of survivingTheScreamingEagles said:John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-reveals-he-will-seek-another-term-as-speaker-a3517886.html0 -
There's a long Westminster tradition of travelling hundreds of miles to abstain in person.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nicola in photocall at Westminster as the SNP decide to abstain. Adam Boulton 'wasn't much point in coming down to Westminster then'
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shes bricking itBig_G_NorthWales said:Nicola in photocall at Westminster as the SNP decide to abstain. Adam Boulton 'wasn't much point in coming down to Westminster then'
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(And support staff are all outsourced to agencies)TheWhiteRabbit said:
I think one study showed J P Morgan and the like have great ratios, largely because their lowest paid are £50k analysts.DecrepitJohnL said:
Labour campaigning for low-paid workers to be outsourced in order to fix the ratios. That will be popular.Morris_Dancer said:Good news, comrades! The Finance Commissar has revealed a spellbinding new promise to achieve total equality in the realm of money:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/8545796605623418890 -
That wouldn't happen, she would just hold a press conference lambasting their game playing and watch her poll lead increase.Scott_P said:
"PM votes No Confidence in her own Government"TOPPING said:The GBP would not be as alive to the minutiae and tricksiness of such a Lab move.
Headline in every newspaper.
The GBP wouldn't get it?
Head. Desk. Bang.0 -
Yep - I'm on that one.peter_from_putney said:
Makes Ladbrokes' 8/1 against the LibDems winning between 30 - 39 seats (equivalent to between 6 - 8 Black Cabs full) look distinctly tasty.Richard_Nabavi said:Hidden inside Polly's mad rant are a few nuggets about Sir Lynton Crosby's guesstimates of the seat changes:
...an estimated 126 majority... Lib Dem’s crystal clear pro-EU stance destined, thinks Crosby, to regain 27 seats lost to Tories in 2015...
Also on the Lab to beat LD bet you highlighted earlier, and on the LD vote share 10% to 20% Alastair mentioned.0 -
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter.Pulpstar said:
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Terms available to your good self only.
Are we on?0 -
Ok yepPulpstar said:
Do you wantisam said:
Residual Ukip bias notwithstanding, I think 3.5 to win a seat is quite good. If I can remember who it's with I might back it.Alistair said:
In a sane and normal world she would be hammered on this.Scott_P said:
UKIP have got to fancy their chances in a carefully selected set of seats.
Any one want to lay it?
-20/+50 - UKIP badge ONLY
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But Nicola hasn't a voteTheScreamingEagles said:
There's a long Westminster tradition of travelling hundreds of miles to abstain in person.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nicola in photocall at Westminster as the SNP decide to abstain. Adam Boulton 'wasn't much point in coming down to Westminster then'
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shes not even an MPTheScreamingEagles said:
There's a long Westminster tradition of travelling hundreds of miles to abstain in person.Big_G_NorthWales said:Nicola in photocall at Westminster as the SNP decide to abstain. Adam Boulton 'wasn't much point in coming down to Westminster then'
shouldnt that be the job of old Aberdeen Angus ?0 -
At least somebody knows when they are Yesterday's Man. Are you listening, Vince?dr_spyn said:LD John Pugh standing down.
http://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/news/southport-news/john-pugh-stand-down-mp-129119530 -
Not really, the 18.5 line on Betfair is at 1.33.peter_from_putney said:
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter.Pulpstar said:
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Terms available to your good self only.
Are we on?0 -
Toynbee starts off by viewing every new Labour leader as the great white hope and ends up despising their uselessness / mendacity / venality / sellout whatever. Before then moving onto the next saviour.ydoethur said:Her Pollyness is displeased:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
Call me Mr Suspicious, but I think the first paragraph is meant to convey a certain lack of approbation for Jeremy Corbyn.
If so he has managed something sensational, epochal, impossible - he's made me agree with Her Pollyness.0 -
Sounds like the average day around here.isam said:
If what you are suggesting transpired, all we would see was an endless argument over technicalities that would bore everyone and get us nowhereScott_P said:
Yes, they do.Philip_Thompson said:If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?
)
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Yup,Alanbrooke said:
how do you rate his chances of survivingTheScreamingEagles said:John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-reveals-he-will-seek-another-term-as-speaker-a3517886.html0 -
Ydoethur,
It really isn't going to work with the majority of Scots that May can claim a majority of seats without managing 50% of the vote gives her a mandate, but Sturgeon winning a majority of seats (and closer to 50% of the vote than May) does not have a mandate.
I know this will be the try on by the unionists and the compliant MSM but it will not convince Scotland.
Here's how we find out whether a majority in Scotland now want Scotland to be independent-hold a referendum :-)
Personally I am relaxed about a May delay-it irritates swithering soft No voters who recognise the weakness of May's stance, and each passing year demographic change bolsters the Yes vote.0 -
3/1 under 18.5?Pulpstar said:
Not really, the 18.5 line on Betfair is at 1.33.peter_from_putney said:
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter.Pulpstar said:
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Terms available to your good self only.
Are we on?0 -
"the truth is".....it's a hard one to call when tories would have to gain seats off labour they have never ever held, especially if they lose a dozen or so to the libdems.peter_from_putney said:
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.TheScreamingEagles said:
Make your mind up Laddie!0 -
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Toxic for Labour and the Lib Dems, and the only way they can insulate themselves is to back Scottish independence.Scott_P said:0 -
Am currently -£14.50/+£95 in this marketisam said:
3/1 under 18.5?Pulpstar said:
Not really, the 18.5 line on Betfair is at 1.33.peter_from_putney said:
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter.Pulpstar said:
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Terms available to your good self only.
Are we on?
0 -
Now that is what I call thoughtful. Corbyn must be overjoyed by the electoral boost this will give him.Scott_P said:0 -
I can only conclude Nicola wants as many Tories returned as possible.williamglenn said:
Toxic for Labour and the Lib Dems, and the only way they can insulate themselves is to back Scottish independence.Scott_P said:0 -
0
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That's nice!Pulpstar said:
Am currently -£14.50/+£95 in this marketisam said:
3/1 under 18.5?Pulpstar said:
Not really, the 18.5 line on Betfair is at 1.33.peter_from_putney said:
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter.Pulpstar said:
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Terms available to your good self only.
Are we on?
I keep getting confused between Lib Dem % bets and seats bets!0 -
Brexit has changed everything (for now - will it last 7 weeks? Who knows).nunu said:
"the truth is".....it's a hard one to call when tories would have to gain seats off labour they have never ever held, especially if they lose a dozen or so to the libdems.peter_from_putney said:
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.TheScreamingEagles said:
Make your mind up Laddie!
The swing since 2015 has come almost entirely from the working class, almost entirely outside the South and mostly from Leave voters. If polls translate into votes, we could see quite a lot of seats that would normally be regarded as 'safe Labour', possibly even 'ultra-safe' being up for grabs.
And by the same token, we'd see some middle-class Remainy marginals missed.0 -
What saddens me potentially about this election is that if the polls translate into votes on the ground, the excellent and very popular Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle (Labour, Chorley) will surely lose his seat to the Tories?TheScreamingEagles said:John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-reveals-he-will-seek-another-term-as-speaker-a3517886.html
He clearly has a following, and I was surprised he held on in 2015, but if Labour is bottoming out at 25% then surely Chorley is a no-no for him?0 -
I can see it now Sturgeon holding a handbag with Corbyn and perhaps others peeking out.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Farage and May.jonny83 said:
I can see it now Sturgeon holding a handbag with Corbyn and perhaps others peeking out.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Mr. Putney, hmm.
Decided to back that. I think the likeliest result is bobbling around 20, but the Lib Dems could exceed expectations.0 -
Why wouldn't she?Pulpstar said:
I can only conclude Nicola wants as many Tories returned as possible.williamglenn said:
Toxic for Labour and the Lib Dems, and the only way they can insulate themselves is to back Scottish independence.Scott_P said:
Last thing the SNP wants is to be part of a Westminster coalition government.0 -
chortle
at least Sturgeon knows how to stick nails in Labours coffin
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Mr. Sykes, I hope Hoyle holds on.0
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Won't be as effective this time.FrancisUrquhart said:
In 2015 the polls indicated a Lab/SNP government was very likely.
In 2017 the Tories have a 21% lead in the polls.
The Tories should stick to hammering Corbyn and McDonnell on their IRA/Hamas links.0 -
My first impression was that they are standing at a funeral.Scott_P said:0 -
Alanbrooke,
You meanie!
I made money from a couple of PB worthies (not you) who were daft enough to think Salmond would not win Gordon last time.
How cruel of you not to offer that bet to me :-)0 -
NEW THREAD
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In what way are Sturgeon and Corbyn "progressive"? What makes them think they have a monopoly on that word? - What does it actually mean these days anyway in a political sense? Spend, spend, spend, regardless I guess.TOPPING said:
My first impression was that they are standing at a funeral.Scott_P said:0 -
JPJ2JPJ2 said:Alanbrooke,
You meanie!
I made money from a couple of PB worthies (not you) who were daft enough to think Salmond would not win Gordon last time.
How cruel of you not to offer that bet to me :-)
happy to offer you the bet ( please note its a site funding bet ! )
malcolm's obviously a big fearty with no confidence in Salmond0 -
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than the worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May to invest in a special edition "landslide" footwear.0 -
IG have lib seats at 32-35
is that worth selling?
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Personally I would buy and wait for a point when Labour is under real pressure in the campaign, since it is quite possible it could trend upwards at some point. Or wait a few days until the market settles a little and then buy,llef said:IG have lib seats at 32-35
is that worth selling?0
