Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
Mundell to hold & Berwickshire ? Carmichael is safe as houses (Thanks @MalcolmG) but any gains are quite hard ! Edinburgh South to be lost I suspect to the SNP but (very) outside chance of Tories.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
I think folk are offering themselves as SNP candidates for both these constituencies.
Natalie M-M @NatalieMcgarry 23m23 minutes ago Deleted earlier tweets as want nothing quotable used by self serving types. But thanks all.
NM doesn’t seem the type to go quietly into the night.
MT maybe does.
Perhaps.
NM is certainly the one with more serious questions to answer, she's also a career politician (or gives every indication of wanting to be one). One way to burn her boats with the SNP would be to stay snarling in the manger as an independent. Edit: apols for mixed metaphor!
Besides there's no reason why May would need to go down the no confidence route. The alternative is that she takes the gift of Corbyn having humiliated Labour to a new record low by rejecting the early general election and votes AGAINST any no confidence motion and continues to govern.
Tezza said yesterday the reason she needs the GE is opposition to her plan.
Corbyn "providing opposition to her plan" would give her no excuse for then opposing the GE she just called for.
She would look weak and indicisive.
But Labour will gift her exactly what she asked for. Again.
Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
Make your mind up Laddie!
Nice block of blue gingham there..... I still somehow feel it won't be quite that impressive, come the day. But a majority north of thirty will nicely do the job.
All that risk, effort and expense for just another 10 or so MPs overall .... hardly a triumph is it?
May might get more than she bargained for if she thinks a bigger majority will help her achieve a soft Brexit.
I doubt she will think that.
A big Con majority won by virtue of swings from UKIP and from Lab/LD Leavers is not a mandate for a soft Brexit and if that's the way those voters perceive things going, they'll melt away like snow in April.
But in the end she is on the more moderate side of the party and has never been a committed Brexiter. She can set out her vision in the campaign and with a substantial majority sideline the most extreme Brexit voices. Presumably just some transition deal which I think most people could live with.
Having a majority of 50, never mind 150, would certainly mean that she couldn't be held hostage in parliament by EU-phobic MPs and you're right that this isn't a crusade for her. On the other hand, I do think that she regards it both as a matter of honour to implement Brexit as conceived in the referendum campaign (i.e. outside CJEU, outside freedom of movement and with substantially reduced annual payments). It's also politically expedient for her to deliver that as it's what's keeping the 25-30% of 2015 UKIP voters now in the Con column there.
I don't honestly think that there's all that much wriggle room even if she has a large majority. Her big thing was about the One Nation vision. Mostly by accident, the polls have come into line with that and the C2DE Con share is close to the same as the ABC1 share. If she wants to deliver on her vision then she needs to appeal to the values and interests of both.
Besides there's no reason why May would need to go down the no confidence route. The alternative is that she takes the gift of Corbyn having humiliated Labour to a new record low by rejecting the early general election and votes AGAINST any no confidence motion and continues to govern.
Tezza said yesterday the reason she needs the GE is opposition to her plan.
Corbyn "providing opposition to her plan" would give her no excuse for then opposing the GE she just called for.
She would look weak and indicisive.
But Labour will gift her exactly what she asked for. Again.
She wouldn't be opposing the GE. SHE WILL HAVE VOTED FOR A GE.What part of that are you struggling to understand? If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
Incidentally Scott if she opposes a no confidence Motion and is challenged why she is opposing an early election she can just file a second early election Motion and ask if Labour still oppose it.
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
Make your mind up Laddie!
Nice block of blue gingham there..... I still somehow feel it won't be quite that impressive, come the day. But a majority north of thirty will nicely do the job.
All that risk, effort and expense for just another 10 or so MPs overall .... hardly a triumph is it?
Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.
That's exactly the kind of nuance the opposition should be making the Prime Minister go on telly to explain.
If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
Yes, they do.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?
No she doesn't, she can stand in front of a microphone and say "I have confidence in my government and will vote for an early election". The motion before the House will not be an early election motion so she is fully entitled to vote against that.
Over Easter there were plenty of rumours about this secret Conservative poll that showed them at risk of losing several seats in the south-west to the LibDems.
Yet at the same time the Conservatives were very secretly arranging a general election.
WITHOUT ANY RUMOURS APPEARING
Is it not possible that this secret poll showing the LibDems doing well was just part of a Conservative diversion plan and that the LibDem threat is less than we were led to believe.
Don’t rate conspiracy theories, this looks more like a very late decision by the PM imo.
The Budget would have been a lot better if this was a long time in the making
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Bearing in mind that seat loss will count the two former-SNP Independents if they lose I can definitely see 2 nailed on losses - Ed West & BRS. Then it comes down to turnout. I think 10 is the absolute maximum the SNP will lose (assuming no campaign disasters) and that is at the far end of probability.
I need to check my spreadsheets and shit to workout where I think the vulnerable seats are.
Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.
That's exactly the kind of nuance the opposition should be making the Prime Minister go on telly to explain.
I wonder if McCluskey would have a word in Corbyn's ear if Labour performs badly in the local elections on May 4th. That could set the cat amongst the pidgeons.
Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
In Scotland it won't be about the seats. It will be about the voteshare. If the SNP repeat their 50% performance from two years ago then they have an unambiguous mandate for another referendum. If they plus the Greens plus the head banging fringe parties have 50% (which is a much more probable result) then the mandate is still clear. However, if they come up short - say that group has around 46-47% and Unionists parties just tick over 50% - then it's hard to see the SNP losing large numbers of seats and equally hard to claim a mandate for a second referendum.
In making this vote a vote on a second independence referendum Sturgeon is clearly appealing to her base (heck, that's the reason she's calling for one in the first place at an inauspicious time, safe in the knowledge May would block it and save her the embarrassment of losing). But I wonder if it is a wise strategy. It does give the Unionist parties a clear message and an excuse to vote tactically. Admittedly that won't help with the tribal Labour vote but almost none of that survives anyway, having flipped to the SNP long ago.
For both it's a high-risk strategy. The outcome could be interesting.
Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
Careful their buddy...nobody has been prosecuted (yet). Files have been sent from the CPS, they are deciding if action should be taken.
That's exactly the kind of nuance the opposition should be making the Prime Minister go on telly to explain.
There can’t be any successful prosecutions if the PM and the LOTO discuss it on prime time TV in the absence of any of the actual evidence.
The only people who care about parliamentary procedure post on this website. It doesn't matter at all.
It's not about Parliamentary procedure.
It's about Labour MPs being able to put on their election leaflets "The PM doesn't have confidence in a Tory Government. Why should you?" instead of "The PM said jump and Labour asked 'How High?'"
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.
Sometimes people here really miss the wood for the trees.
And that is what you are doing. People can be made to look ridiculously incompetent even if they aren't, and that is political death. And there is ridiculous incompetence at work here: the tory party hoist by that idiot Osborne's self-before-party, party-before-country petard.
And this site collectively (if not you individually) needs to make its mind up: either the electorate is so sophisticated that it could clearly explain the operation of the FTPA and the reasons behind it in 5 minutes, or it is so stupid that you can herd more than half of it through the "Leave" gate by painting 350m on the side of a bus. Which?
Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
Just a case of when.
aww go on you big jessie, JPJ2 will be enjoying independence from Solihull
tell you what malc since theyre all bored I'll give you a fun bet £20 says Salmond loses his seat proceeds to the site.
I wonder if McCluskey would have a word in Corbyn's ear if Labour performs badly in the local elections on May 4th. That could set the cat amongst the pidgeons.
Len has his own election to win.
But in any case, if the idea of MPs mounting a coup in the middle of normal parliamentary activity set the membership off, what on earth would having the leader taken out by the unions on the eve of an election campaign.
And even if Corbyn played along - which he wouldn't, but let's run with it - then what? Who leads and on what mandate? What happens to the manifesto? How will candidates look who've taken the risk of putting Corbyn on their leaflets?
I remember exchanging e mails with you when you (being Northern Irish where they do that sort of thing) thought my tongue in cheek post about Scotland having major territorial ambitions in England was for real :-)
As you are Northern Irish but living in England I assume you will never comment on Northern Ireland matters-oh wait a minute, not only will you do that, you will actually comment on Scottish politics......
Does that put Southport in play for the tories? No idea if John Pugh has much of a personal vote (as whilst I suspect i must heard of him, I could not have told yo uhis name) ... Lots of Kippers to squeeze too I see
If Labour play games and oppose a GE they don't get a guaranteed second bite of the cherry.
Yes, they do.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?
If what you are suggesting transpired, all we would see was an endless argument over technicalities that would bore everyone and get us nowhere
That would be wholly alien to the great traditions of PB, but that wouldn't mean it got nowhere. It was an endless argument over technicalities that decided Indyref.
The GBP would not be as alive to the minutiae and tricksiness of such a Lab move.
"PM votes No Confidence in her own Government"
Headline in every newspaper.
The GBP wouldn't get it?
Head. Desk. Bang.
What people would see is May calling for an election & Corbyn bottling it. They wouldn't see "PM votes No Confidence in her own Government" because she wouldn't do it
I remember exchanging e mails with you when you (being Northern Irish where they do that sort of thing) thought my tongue in cheek post about Scotland having major territorial ambitions in England was for real :-)
As you are Northern Irish but living in England I assume you will never comment on Northern Ireland matters-oh wait a minute, not only will you do that, you will actually comment on Scottish politics......
Just teasing you in return.
I comment on NI matters quite frquently, but unlike you I considfer myself to be living in my own country - the United Kingdom - so quite happy to comment on whats happening in our many fantastic and quirky regions,.
And this site collectively (if not you individually) needs to make its mind up: either the electorate is so sophisticated that it could clearly explain the operation of the FTPA and the reasons behind it in 5 minutes,
Well, we have been arguing about it for 2 days now so 5 mins looks unlikely.
John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter. Terms available to your good self only.
Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter. Terms available to your good self only.
Call me Mr Suspicious, but I think the first paragraph is meant to convey a certain lack of approbation for Jeremy Corbyn.
If so he has managed something sensational, epochal, impossible - he's made me agree with Her Pollyness.
Toynbee starts off by viewing every new Labour leader as the great white hope and ends up despising their uselessness / mendacity / venality / sellout whatever. Before then moving onto the next saviour.
John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
It really isn't going to work with the majority of Scots that May can claim a majority of seats without managing 50% of the vote gives her a mandate, but Sturgeon winning a majority of seats (and closer to 50% of the vote than May) does not have a mandate.
I know this will be the try on by the unionists and the compliant MSM but it will not convince Scotland.
Here's how we find out whether a majority in Scotland now want Scotland to be independent-hold a referendum :-)
Personally I am relaxed about a May delay-it irritates swithering soft No voters who recognise the weakness of May's stance, and each passing year demographic change bolsters the Yes vote.
Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter. Terms available to your good self only.
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
Make your mind up Laddie!
"the truth is".....it's a hard one to call when tories would have to gain seats off labour they have never ever held, especially if they lose a dozen or so to the libdems.
Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter. Terms available to your good self only.
Mr. Pulpstar, how do you reckon the Lib Dems will do?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
I think we'll boost vote share to around 14, regain some London seats but perhaps end up at around 19 or 20.
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Pulps ..... do you fancy a £20 even money bet with me on the number of LibDem seats. You win if these total 20 or fewer, I win if they total 21or more. Relates to June 8 GE only. Settlement by electronic bank transfer within 7 days thereafter. Terms available to your good self only.
Are we on?
Not really, the 18.5 line on Betfair is at 1.33.
3/1 under 18.5?
Am currently -£14.50/+£95 in this market
That's nice!
I keep getting confused between Lib Dem % bets and seats bets!
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
Make your mind up Laddie!
"the truth is".....it's a hard one to call when tories would have to gain seats off labour they have never ever held, especially if they lose a dozen or so to the libdems.
Brexit has changed everything (for now - will it last 7 weeks? Who knows).
The swing since 2015 has come almost entirely from the working class, almost entirely outside the South and mostly from Leave voters. If polls translate into votes, we could see quite a lot of seats that would normally be regarded as 'safe Labour', possibly even 'ultra-safe' being up for grabs.
And by the same token, we'd see some middle-class Remainy marginals missed.
John Bercow today revealed he will stand for another term as Speaker, scotching rumours he would take the chance of the snap general election to retire.
What saddens me potentially about this election is that if the polls translate into votes on the ground, the excellent and very popular Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle (Labour, Chorley) will surely lose his seat to the Tories?
He clearly has a following, and I was surprised he held on in 2015, but if Labour is bottoming out at 25% then surely Chorley is a no-no for him?
My first impression was that they are standing at a funeral.
In what way are Sturgeon and Corbyn "progressive"? What makes them think they have a monopoly on that word? - What does it actually mean these days anyway in a political sense? Spend, spend, spend, regardless I guess.
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than the worst opinion poll rating. 2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur. 3. UKIP vote share likely to halve. 4. SNP retain at least 50 seats. 5. Mrs May to invest in a special edition "landslide" footwear.
Personally I would buy and wait for a point when Labour is under real pressure in the campaign, since it is quite possible it could trend upwards at some point. Or wait a few days until the market settles a little and then buy,
Comments
Carmichael is safe as houses (Thanks @MalcolmG) but any gains are quite hard !
Edinburgh South to be lost I suspect to the SNP but (very) outside chance of Tories.
NM is certainly the one with more serious questions to answer, she's also a career politician (or gives every indication of wanting to be one). One way to burn her boats with the SNP would be to stay snarling in the manger as an independent.
Edit: apols for mixed metaphor!
Corbyn "providing opposition to her plan" would give her no excuse for then opposing the GE she just called for.
She would look weak and indicisive.
But Labour will gift her exactly what she asked for. Again.
I don't honestly think that there's all that much wriggle room even if she has a large majority. Her big thing was about the One Nation vision. Mostly by accident, the polls have come into line with that and the C2DE Con share is close to the same as the ABC1 share. If she wants to deliver on her vision then she needs to appeal to the values and interests of both.
They call a vote of no confidence. And for Tezza to oppose that, she has to stand in front of a microphone and say "I don't want a GE"
What part of that are you struggling to understand?
Edited extra bit: Mr. P, ..... that's ridiculous. One Budget was enough.
I need to check my spreadsheets and shit to workout where I think the vulnerable seats are.
So no bet yet but maybes in a bit.
In making this vote a vote on a second independence referendum Sturgeon is clearly appealing to her base (heck, that's the reason she's calling for one in the first place at an inauspicious time, safe in the knowledge May would block it and save her the embarrassment of losing). But I wonder if it is a wise strategy. It does give the Unionist parties a clear message and an excuse to vote tactically. Admittedly that won't help with the tribal Labour vote but almost none of that survives anyway, having flipped to the SNP long ago.
For both it's a high-risk strategy. The outcome could be interesting.
And this site collectively (if not you individually) needs to make its mind up: either the electorate is so sophisticated that it could clearly explain the operation of the FTPA and the reasons behind it in 5 minutes, or it is so stupid that you can herd more than half of it through the "Leave" gate by painting 350m on the side of a bus. Which?
tell you what malc since theyre all bored I'll give you a fun bet £20 says Salmond loses his seat proceeds to the site.
http://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/news/southport-news/john-pugh-stand-down-mp-12911953
The Southwest looks more tricky, it is quite leavey and we're miles behind in the more remain seats.
I'll go 19 seats as a starter for 10 & 14% (UK wide)
Headline in every newspaper.
The GBP wouldn't get it?
Head. Desk. Bang.
But in any case, if the idea of MPs mounting a coup in the middle of normal parliamentary activity set the membership off, what on earth would having the leader taken out by the unions on the eve of an election campaign.
And even if Corbyn played along - which he wouldn't, but let's run with it - then what? Who leads and on what mandate? What happens to the manifesto? How will candidates look who've taken the risk of putting Corbyn on their leaflets?
No, Labour is stuck with JC now.
Head. Desk. Bang.
I remember exchanging e mails with you when you (being Northern Irish where they do that sort of thing) thought my tongue in cheek post about Scotland having major territorial ambitions in England was for real :-)
As you are Northern Irish but living in England I assume you will never comment on Northern Ireland matters-oh wait a minute, not only will you do that, you will actually comment on Scottish politics......
Just teasing you in return.
UKIP have got to fancy their chances in a carefully selected set of seats.
Scotland included :-)
Therefore this ..... ... looks like the winner.
Any one want to lay it?
-20/+50 - UKIP badge ONLY
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-reveals-he-will-seek-another-term-as-speaker-a3517886.html
Headline in every newspaper, blog, website and Hello Magazine.
C'mon Scott get down and dirty with the British Public. It's warm and cosy down here.
Also on the Lab to beat LD bet you highlighted earlier, and on the LD vote share 10% to 20% Alastair mentioned.
Terms available to your good self only.
Are we on?
shouldnt that be the job of old Aberdeen Angus ?
It really isn't going to work with the majority of Scots that May can claim a majority of seats without managing 50% of the vote gives her a mandate, but Sturgeon winning a majority of seats (and closer to 50% of the vote than May) does not have a mandate.
I know this will be the try on by the unionists and the compliant MSM but it will not convince Scotland.
Here's how we find out whether a majority in Scotland now want Scotland to be independent-hold a referendum :-)
Personally I am relaxed about a May delay-it irritates swithering soft No voters who recognise the weakness of May's stance, and each passing year demographic change bolsters the Yes vote.
I keep getting confused between Lib Dem % bets and seats bets!
The swing since 2015 has come almost entirely from the working class, almost entirely outside the South and mostly from Leave voters. If polls translate into votes, we could see quite a lot of seats that would normally be regarded as 'safe Labour', possibly even 'ultra-safe' being up for grabs.
And by the same token, we'd see some middle-class Remainy marginals missed.
He clearly has a following, and I was surprised he held on in 2015, but if Labour is bottoming out at 25% then surely Chorley is a no-no for him?
Decided to back that. I think the likeliest result is bobbling around 20, but the Lib Dems could exceed expectations.
Last thing the SNP wants is to be part of a Westminster coalition government.
at least Sturgeon knows how to stick nails in Labours coffin
In 2015 the polls indicated a Lab/SNP government was very likely.
In 2017 the Tories have a 21% lead in the polls.
The Tories should stick to hammering Corbyn and McDonnell on their IRA/Hamas links.
You meanie!
I made money from a couple of PB worthies (not you) who were daft enough to think Salmond would not win Gordon last time.
How cruel of you not to offer that bet to me :-)
NEW THREAD
happy to offer you the bet ( please note its a site funding bet ! )
malcolm's obviously a big fearty with no confidence in Salmond
1. Labour will poll worse than the worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May to invest in a special edition "landslide" footwear.
is that worth selling?