I would have thought so. The LDs seem bullish (as always) but:
- Local by-elections work for motivated parties that can concentrate support; general elections are entirely different, especially if your target seats are clustered. - A lot of LD targets are in the SW. How will they square the Remain circle? - LDs are still only taking around 10-12% in the polls, which is poor historically. - May not be guaranteed much media coverage based on last 5 years election results. - There aren't many LD-Lab marginals in which to take advantage of Lab weakness. - Few if any of the losses to the SNP look recoverable.
I'd have thought a return in the 20s the most likely outcome myself.
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than the worst opinion poll rating. 2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur. 3. UKIP vote share likely to halve. 4. SNP retain at least 50 seats. 5. Mrs May to invest in a special edition "landslide" footwear.
1. is contrary to precedent when Labour is under pressure. There are usually disenchanted supporters who when it comes to it stick with the party in the polling booth, as in 1983 and 2010. I would expect Labour's poll rating to be low, but slightly bettered in the actual vote.
2. Let's wait and see. It depends on whether May's line on Brexit and strengthening her hand is impregnable.
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than the worst opinion poll rating. 2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur. 3. UKIP vote share likely to halve. 4. SNP retain at least 50 seats. 5. Mrs May to invest in a special edition "landslide" footwear.
Some interesting guidelines there Jack, but do I sense that you are moving slowly but inexorably towards producing a full scale prediction of the GE result? - I do hope so, it won't be the same without your valuable input.
I think a Tory landslide is increasingly unlikely. Simply because the election will be seen as a sure thing. Some labour voters will simply ignore Corbyn's failings because he is clearly not going to be PM, so what does it matter? May will probably finish with a majority of 50 or so.
I myself will most likely end up voting Labour. Can't stand Corbyn, never voted Labour previously (used to be in a Labour safe seat, now a Labour marginal) - but a vote for the LDs will only help hand the seat to the Tories. I think a chunk of Labour's 2015 voters will feel the same way.
Anti-tory tactical voting is a well established practice, momentarily stopped by the 2015 revenge for the coalition, and I think that we are likely to see a return to that to some extent.
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than the worst opinion poll rating. 2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur. 3. UKIP vote share likely to halve. 4. SNP retain at least 50 seats. 5. Mrs May to invest in a special edition "landslide" footwear.
1. is contrary to precedent when Labour is under pressure. There are usually disenchanted supporters who when it comes to it stick with the party in the polling booth, as in 1983 and 2010. I would expect Labour's poll rating to be low, but slightly bettered in the actual vote.
2. Let's wait and see. It depends on whether May's line on Brexit and strengthening her hand is impregnable.
Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
Mundell to hold & Berwickshire ? Carmichael is safe as houses (Thanks @MalcolmG) but any gains are quite hard ! Edinburgh South to be lost I suspect to the SNP but (very) outside chance of Tories.
I would love to see Mundell out on his arse, totaly and utterly useless
Comments
- Local by-elections work for motivated parties that can concentrate support; general elections are entirely different, especially if your target seats are clustered.
- A lot of LD targets are in the SW. How will they square the Remain circle?
- LDs are still only taking around 10-12% in the polls, which is poor historically.
- May not be guaranteed much media coverage based on last 5 years election results.
- There aren't many LD-Lab marginals in which to take advantage of Lab weakness.
- Few if any of the losses to the SNP look recoverable.
I'd have thought a return in the 20s the most likely outcome myself.
2. Let's wait and see. It depends on whether May's line on Brexit and strengthening her hand is impregnable.
3, 4, 5 all very likely
I myself will most likely end up voting Labour. Can't stand Corbyn, never voted Labour previously (used to be in a Labour safe seat, now a Labour marginal) - but a vote for the LDs will only help hand the seat to the Tories. I think a chunk of Labour's 2015 voters will feel the same way.
Anti-tory tactical voting is a well established practice, momentarily stopped by the 2015 revenge for the coalition, and I think that we are likely to see a return to that to some extent.