It is mental, labour should vote against and tell may to get on with the job of running the country. Why they want to give her a free ticket on brexit etc is just stupid.
I agree with MalcolmG.
I have just come over all faint and must now lie down for a bit...
I'm not sure I follow. What terms would they ask for?
Doesn't matter. The moon on a stick. If Tezza doesn't like them, she knows what to do...
He could make a statement that starts by throwing all May's lines back at her about no early election and conclude by saying that only only real reason for an early election is that there is no confidence in this government, and therefore he will instruct Labour to abstain before tabling a no confidence vote.
While LDs will clearly benefit from an early election I can't remotely see what's in it for Labour and the SNP and I'd be tempted today to vote against dissolution if I was in their shoes.
whats in it for Labour is their survival as an electable party
without Jezza they may just come through, another two years and who knows what shape theyll be in. If the LDs had a leader theyd be driving Labour out of existence.
Ed miliband truly was an idiot
I'm sure some backbenchers with ultra safe seats take that view but why would the leadership back one at this time or indeed any Labour MP with a majority of less than say 8000?
I didnt say it would be comfortable for them.
Mrs May has set some cats among their pigeons, they have some horrible trade offs they have to make. But theyre going to have to make them.
When you have cancer you can cut it out now or you can wait. Now means pain, loss, tears - and hope. Later means you're likely fucked. Labour needs its surgery now.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
May might get more than she bargained for if she thinks a bigger majority will help her achieve a soft Brexit.
I doubt she will think that.
A big Con majority won by virtue of swings from UKIP and from Lab/LD Leavers is not a mandate for a soft Brexit and if that's the way those voters perceive things going, they'll melt away like snow in April.
The only people who care about parliamentary procedure post on this website. It doesn't matter at all.
It's not about Parliamentary procedure.
It's about Labour MPs being able to put on their election leaflets "The PM doesn't have confidence in a Tory Government. Why should you?" instead of "The PM said jump and Labour asked 'How High?'"
He could make a statement that starts by throwing all May's lines back at her about no early election and conclude by saying that only only real reason for an early election is that there is no confidence in this government, and therefore he will instruct Labour to abstain before tabling a no confidence vote.
The snag is that you can't vote against an election, vote for a MONC and then say it's voting down the latter that stopped an election.
Even somebody as thick as Arlene Foster with Diane Abbott's IQ subtracted wouldn't swallow that.
I am not suggesting Labour stop an election.
I am suggesting they oppose the Government motion for dissolution (opposition, there's an idea) and put a motion of no confidence in the Government which the PM would have to back based on the preceeding logic.
The end result is the same. Election. Corbyn gone.
The difference is Labour in the driving seat. The PM embarrassed.
It's simple, and obvious, and therefore will not happen.
No it is silly and absurd.
The driving seat was occupied the second the Prime Minister stood at a lectern outside Downing Street and called for an election to the waiting media. The media is now on an election footing and was before Labour had a chance to respond. They have guaranteed ratings and articles coming for the next 7 weeks and woe befall any intransigent opposition that gets in the way of that.
Anyone who tries to prat around with Parliamentary procedures now is not going to be respected for that.
The question will be as to how many labour voters will vote conservative, especially in the Midlands and North, to deliver the final blow to Corbyn and to open the way to a new party will voter appeal
He could make a statement that starts by throwing all May's lines back at her about no early election and conclude by saying that only only real reason for an early election is that there is no confidence in this government, and therefore he will instruct Labour to abstain before tabling a no confidence vote.
Exactly.
But he won't. Becuase he is F*&^ing useless.
You and william are all tactics. Think it through. As a Labour leader or MP. Strategically. No Confidence is worse for Labour than just voting along. Jezza got there accidentally by not thinking (as he is won't to do). Those like Tom Watson got there by thinking about it. Learn to think.
The only people who care about parliamentary procedure post on this website. It doesn't matter at all.
It's not about Parliamentary procedure.
It's about Labour MPs being able to put on their election leaflets "The PM doesn't have confidence in a Tory Government. Why should you?" instead of "The PM said jump and Labour asked 'How High?'"
"How High?" seems a strange question to ask when you are standing at the edge of a cliff?
The question will be as to how many labour voters will vote conservative, especially in the Midlands and North, to deliver the final blow to Corbyn and to open the way to a new party will voter appeal
If Labour also lost some of their liberal metropolitan strongholds to the Lib Dems it would be an extinction level event with no coming back.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
It does occur to me that last time in some seats, it was unclear who the principal opponent to the SNP actually was (e.g., Dumfries & Galloway).
Now it is clear.
The possibility of the SNP losing seats must be way greater than the possibility of them gaining seats (because 2015 was so good). They would need Unionist tactical voting to lose 10, but the conditions for that in some seats are now there, & so Alastair’s prediction is quite possible.
To be clear, I’d probably go for more modest SNP losses (~ 5) though.
The question will be as to how many labour voters will vote conservative, especially in the Midlands and North, to deliver the final blow to Corbyn and to open the way to a new party will voter appeal
If Labour also lost some of their liberal metropolitan strongholds to the Lib Dems it would be an extinction level event with no coming back.
Very possible outcome but where would a credible opposition come from and when
No Confidence is worse for Labour than just voting along.
No, it really isn't.
Yes, it really is. The horse has bolted, rejecting an early election now would make Gordon Brown chickening out of the election that never was seem decisive and brave.
May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
Why? You think Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper would wipe the floor with her?
Corbyn will certainly cost Labour a extra chunk of seats but Labour's problems go way beyond his leadership.
As you know, I think May is utterly mediocre: she has never had an original idea in her life and is totally in thrall to the anti-European right wing press. It would not take a genius to expose that - Nick Robinson did it very effectively on the radio this morning. I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it and probably exceed it in ability. Even with the many long-term problems Labour has, it should be capable of running the Tories close. That it isn't is almost entirely down to Corbyn, McDonnell and the utterly abysmal hangers-on that surround them. Labour has caused its own problems, has made itself unelectable and in so doing has let the country down. Voters deserve a much better choice than the one they will get on 8th June.
That said, if there was a competent leader of the opposition we wouldn't be having this general election in the first place.
Still surprised Labour's apparent position is to support this.
So am I - particularly as the SNP are going to abstain. 150 Labour MPs need to abstain to block it.
It is mental, labour should vote against and tell may to get on with the job of running the country. Why they want to give her a free ticket on brexit etc is just stupid.
If Labour vote against there wont be an electable party by 2020.
Its SDP 2 time.
They do need to piss or get off the pot, given they have nobody with a backbone or a scintilla of talent they seem to be finished. If they were to have had any chance the split would have been done by now but they stand for nothing but saving their own skins.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
It is mental, labour should vote against and tell may to get on with the job of running the country. Why they want to give her a free ticket on brexit etc is just stupid.
I agree with MalcolmG.
I have just come over all faint and must now lie down for a bit...
Scott , you are on the side of the gods now, keep it up.
It shows how much tax would be raised/reduced by increasing/decreasing tax rates and allowance.
For example increasing the additional tax rate of 45% to 46% only raises about £100m compared with the £4b raised by increasing the 20% basic rate to 21%.
The only people who care about parliamentary procedure post on this website. It doesn't matter at all.
It's not about Parliamentary procedure.
It's about Labour MPs being able to put on their election leaflets "The PM doesn't have confidence in a Tory Government. Why should you?" instead of "The PM said jump and Labour asked 'How High?'"
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.
Sometimes people here really miss the wood for the trees.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
Why? You think Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper would wipe the floor with her?
Corbyn will certainly cost Labour a extra chunk of seats but Labour's problems go way beyond his leadership.
As you know, I think May is utterly mediocre: she has never had an original idea in her life and is totally in thrall to the anti-European right wing press. It would not take a genius to expose that - Nick Robinson did it very effectively on the radio this morning. I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it and probably exceed it in ability. Even with the many long-term problems Labour has, it should be capable of running the Tories close. That it isn't is almost entirely down to Corbyn, McDonnell and the utterly abysmal hangers-on that surround them. Labour has caused its own problems, has made itself unelectable and in so doing has let the country down. Voters deserve a much better choice than the one they will get on 8th June.
That said, if there was a competent leader of the opposition we wouldn't be having this general election in the first place.
who are these talents ?
I watched Lucy Powell last night, you might as well elect a pot of yoghurt.
@faisalislam: Id have thought the political theatre of forcing a PM to table a no confidence motion in herself, might have tempted the Opposition, but no
@faisalislam: E.g. Corbyn could've said: happy to negotiate terms for Lab to vote for GE, but if PM wants to unilaterally, confidence mechanism available
Has Corbyn actually stated that he won't use this tactic?
Perhaps he'll amaze everyone at PMQs by pulling a rabbit from this particular hat .... it would certainly make for some great drama in the HoC. I wonder whether Mrs May is fully prepared for such a situation?
What odds from Shadsy that her retort would be "Frit, Frit, Frit!"
May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
Why? You think Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper would wipe the floor with her?
Corbyn will certainly cost Labour a extra chunk of seats but Labour's problems go way beyond his leadership.
As you know, I think May is utterly mediocre: she has never had an original idea in her life and is totally in thrall to the anti-European right wing press. It would not take a genius to expose that - Nick Robinson did it very effectively on the radio this morning. I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it and probably exceed it in ability. Even with the many long-term problems Labour has, it should be capable of running the Tories close. That it isn't is almost entirely down to Corbyn, McDonnell and the utterly abysmal hangers-on that surround them. Labour has caused its own problems, has made itself unelectable and in so doing has let the country down. Voters deserve a much better choice than the one they will get on 8th June.
That said, if there was a competent leader of the opposition we wouldn't be having this general election in the first place.
who are these talents ?
I watched Lucy Powell last night, you might as well elect a pot of yoghurt.
He also defined "rich" as someone earning over £70k.
Even worse was McDonnell completely floundering on answering what Labour wanted with respect to single market and customs union access. As far as I could tell Labour want the have your cake and eat it level of access that the government has already accepted as impossible. i.e. No four freedoms of the single market, and in the customs union but also able to have our own trade deals. Given that the EU have already made clear that ain't happening it strikes me as a tad optimistic.
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.
"The PM doesn't have confidence in her own Government" seems like nonsense to 90% of voters? Really?
You have a very low opinion of them...
Because it is nonsense. If Corbyn said what william proposed then May would retort instantly that she wants the election so will instruct her MPs to abstain on the no confidence ballot in order to get the election. The public will know that it was to get the election as no voter will be unaware by that point that she'd called for an election already.
All you'd get is a two-week delay to the election and Labour a laughing stock for having caused that delay.
May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
Why? You think Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper would wipe the floor with her?
Corbyn will certainly cost Labour a extra chunk of seats but Labour's problems go way beyond his leadership.
As you know, I think May is utterly mediocre: she has never had an original idea in her life and is totally in thrall to the anti-European right wing press. It would not take a genius to expose that - Nick Robinson did it very effectively on the radio this morning. I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it and probably exceed it in ability. Even with the many long-term problems Labour has, it should be capable of running the Tories close. That it isn't is almost entirely down to Corbyn, McDonnell and the utterly abysmal hangers-on that surround them. Labour has caused its own problems, has made itself unelectable and in so doing has let the country down. Voters deserve a much better choice than the one they will get on 8th June.
That said, if there was a competent leader of the opposition we wouldn't be having this general election in the first place.
who are these talents ?
I watched Lucy Powell last night, you might as well elect a pot of yoghurt.
What Southam said was “I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it “
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
I think folk are offering themselves as SNP candidates for both these constituencies.
May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
Why? You think Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper would wipe the floor with her?
Corbyn will certainly cost Labour a extra chunk of seats but Labour's problems go way beyond his leadership.
As you know, I think May is utterly mediocre: she has never had an original idea in her life and is totally in thrall to the anti-European right wing press. It would not take a genius to expose that - Nick Robinson did it very effectively on the radio this morning. I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it and probably exceed it in ability. Even with the many long-term problems Labour has, it should be capable of running the Tories close. That it isn't is almost entirely down to Corbyn, McDonnell and the utterly abysmal hangers-on that surround them. Labour has caused its own problems, has made itself unelectable and in so doing has let the country down. Voters deserve a much better choice than the one they will get on 8th June.
That said, if there was a competent leader of the opposition we wouldn't be having this general election in the first place.
who are these talents ?
I watched Lucy Powell last night, you might as well elect a pot of yoghurt.
What Southam said was “I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it “
It is hard to disagree with SO !!
Frankly I fail to see who in Labour could rise to the intellectual levels of Liam Fox.
It is mental, labour should vote against and tell may to get on with the job of running the country. Why they want to give her a free ticket on brexit etc is just stupid.
I agree with MalcolmG.
I have just come over all faint and must now lie down for a bit...
It is happening all too frequently now. I agreed with Malcolm a few times last week or the week before (it hard to recall exactly because of the resulting PTSD)
Something is in the wind ..... Malc for LD Leader?
Mr. Meeks, I flagged that up yesterday, but my concern was, and is, that the Lib Dems could exceed that. With Labour seemingly down and out, the Conservatives sweeping up the right, and turnout perhaps depressed, I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems got into the 20s.
I preferred the 1.66 (now 1.57) on UKIP being under 10%.
May really is so very, very lucky to be up against Corbyn.
Why? You think Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham or Yvette Cooper would wipe the floor with her?
Corbyn will certainly cost Labour a extra chunk of seats but Labour's problems go way beyond his leadership.
As you know, I think May is utterly mediocre: she has never had an original idea in her life and is totally in thrall to the anti-European right wing press. It would not take a genius to expose that - Nick Robinson did it very effectively on the radio this morning. I also think that that the cabinet she leads is almost entirely talentless. I am very confident that Labour could assemble a shadow cabinet that would easily match it and probably exceed it in ability. Even with the many long-term problems Labour has, it should be capable of running the Tories close. That it isn't is almost entirely down to Corbyn, McDonnell and the utterly abysmal hangers-on that surround them. Labour has caused its own problems, has made itself unelectable and in so doing has let the country down. Voters deserve a much better choice than the one they will get on 8th June.
That said, if there was a competent leader of the opposition we wouldn't be having this general election in the first place.
who are these talents ?
I watched Lucy Powell last night, you might as well elect a pot of yoghurt.
That's kind of my point! I would put someone like Powell up against someone like Priti Patel or Liz Truss any day of the week. I would put Yvette Cooper up against Theresa May; Chukka Umunna up against Phil Hammond; Chris Leslie up against Liam Fox; Keir Starmer up against David Davis etc.
He also defined "rich" as someone earning over £70k.
Even worse was McDonnell completely floundering on answering what Labour wanted with respect to single market and customs union access. As far as I could tell Labour want the have your cake and eat it level of access that the government has already accepted as impossible. i.e. No four freedoms of the single market, and in the customs union but also able to have our own trade deals. Given that the EU have already made clear that ain't happening it strikes me as a tad optimistic.
How to get the media on your side..Class them as rich and target them for load of extra tax. £500 a year more in NI and they went into meltdown.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
I think folk are offering themselves as SNP candidates for both these constituencies.
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.
"The PM doesn't have confidence in her own Government" seems like nonsense to 90% of voters? Really?
You have a very low opinion of them...
More to the point it could be spun as the PM not having confidence in her party because she has too many head-bangers for comfort. Exploiting Tory splits is Labour opposition tactics 101.
Mr. Meeks, I flagged that up yesterday, but my concern was, and is, that the Lib Dems could exceed that. With Labour seemingly down and out, the Conservatives sweeping up the right, and turnout perhaps depressed, I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dems got into the 20s.
I preferred the 1.66 (now 1.57) on UKIP being under 10%.
Still surprised Labour's apparent position is to support this.
So am I - particularly as the SNP are going to abstain. 150 Labour MPs need to abstain to block it.
It is mental, labour should vote against and tell may to get on with the job of running the country. Why they want to give her a free ticket on brexit etc is just stupid.
If Labour vote against there wont be an electable party by 2020.
Its SDP 2 time.
They do need to piss or get off the pot, given they have nobody with a backbone or a scintilla of talent they seem to be finished. If they were to have had any chance the split would have been done by now but they stand for nothing but saving their own skins.
We need you Malcolm - depose Farron, lead the LDs to a stunning victory and consign Labour to that Swiss Clinic that helps the terminally ill out of their final pain.
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.
"The PM doesn't have confidence in her own Government" seems like nonsense to 90% of voters? Really?
You have a very low opinion of them...
Because it is nonsense. If Corbyn said what william proposed then May would retort instantly that she wants the election so will instruct her MPs to abstain on the no confidence ballot in order to get the election. The public will know that it was to get the election as no voter will be unaware by that point that she'd called for an election already.
All you'd get is a two-week delay to the election and Labour a laughing stock for having caused that delay.
Abstaining would be stupid. If you want the election, you support the motion, make sure you leave no hostages to fortune and explain why you're doing it.
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
Make your mind up Laddie!
Anyone who watched the BBC Brexit coverage should know already that making up his mind is not Curtice's strongpoint.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
I think folk are offering themselves as SNP candidates for both these constituencies.
Working on the assumption that they are reduced to circa 180 to 200 seats, so a 30 to 50 reduction from the current 229. In rough terms that is a a reduction of between 13% and 20%.
How will this change the balance on the somewhat outdated left right balance of the party? With retirements in seats that are subsequently won, will there be a change in balance? Which candidates will that favour?
Who will be left to get nominations for the next leader? Will the Left still hold sway in the membership? Will Jeremy hang on until conference to have an orderly handover, after his mate Jolly Johns amendment has passed?
My instinct is the Corbyn remains after defeat for up to 12 months to allow the changes he wants to structures to be installed in the rule book, if the Unions allow him to (but why wouldn't they - no election in the short term, so sort the structure to your advantage).
What is the benefit of the new PLP forcing a leadership election if there is a risk that the membership will select JC again? As it is established he can stand, regardless of nominations, they almost have to wait for him to resign if the membership is still expected to support his brand of politics, after all, power is not the short term goal or expectation for many of his supporters.
It may not be the quick fix for Labour that many are projecting.
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.
"The PM doesn't have confidence in her own Government" seems like nonsense to 90% of voters? Really?
You have a very low opinion of them...
Because it is nonsense. If Corbyn said what william proposed then May would retort instantly that she wants the election so will instruct her MPs to abstain on the no confidence ballot in order to get the election. The public will know that it was to get the election as no voter will be unaware by that point that she'd called for an election already.
All you'd get is a two-week delay to the election and Labour a laughing stock for having caused that delay.
Abstaining would be stupid. If you want the election, you support the motion, make sure you leave no hostages to fortune and explain why you're doing it.
Indeed you can do that too and simply explain that its to cause an election that was already announced and not because you don't have confidence in your government. Some people try to be too clever by half, the world had moved on already the moment that May announced the election to the media we were already in an election campaign. Parliamentary gamesmanship by that point is not going to be taken credibly.
I must say the suggestion that Labour should abstain or vote against an early election is amusing. The idea that after the PM has asked for a GE because of opposition gamesmanship engaging in a blatant display of such games would be beneficial to anyone but Theresa May is bizarre. The Tory lead would double by the weekend.
May might get more than she bargained for if she thinks a bigger majority will help her achieve a soft Brexit.
I doubt she will think that.
A big Con majority won by virtue of swings from UKIP and from Lab/LD Leavers is not a mandate for a soft Brexit and if that's the way those voters perceive things going, they'll melt away like snow in April.
But in the end she is on the more moderate side of the party and has never been a committed Brexiter. She can set out her vision in the campaign and with a substantial majority sideline the most extreme Brexit voices. Presumably just some transition deal whiich I think most people could live with.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
I think folk are offering themselves as SNP candidates for both these constituencies.
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
@faisalislam: Id have thought the political theatre of forcing a PM to table a no confidence motion in herself, might have tempted the Opposition, but no
@faisalislam: E.g. Corbyn could've said: happy to negotiate terms for Lab to vote for GE, but if PM wants to unilaterally, confidence mechanism available
I just don't think it is feasible, politically, not to grab the opportunity of an early GE if you are the opposition.
May might get more than she bargained for if she thinks a bigger majority will help her achieve a soft Brexit.
I doubt she will think that.
A big Con majority won by virtue of swings from UKIP and from Lab/LD Leavers is not a mandate for a soft Brexit and if that's the way those voters perceive things going, they'll melt away like snow in April.
But in the end she is on the more moderate side of the party and has never been a committed Brexiter. She can set out her vision in the campaign and with a substantial majority sideline the most extreme Brexit voices. Presumably just some transition deal whiich I think most people could live with.
If she has a vision for Brexit, the PM can indeed lay it out and campaign for it and indeed win a mandate for it. Some of us who think this is about the election expenses scandal and not Brexit remain sceptical.
Probably will be boring. I'm expecting the tory lead to come in a bit, perhaps even to since figures, and people to get overexcited by a good showing by the lds in be locals, beer return to 12-13 point lead for the result. The complacency that will be inevitable and non corbynsas terrified labour will be annihilated returning o the fold will see the worst avoided, even as more casual voters stay home.
The most motivated voters in the election will be die hard Remainers and the Scots.
Remainers maybe I doubt Scots will be that motivated for another Westminster election and if anything unionists could be motivated to gain a few seats from the SNP with the Tories aiming to win in the borders and seats like Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine and the LDs to gain seats like Edinburgh West as they did in the 2016 Holyrood elections (Labour gained Edinburgh South then while losing seats elsewhere so Murray may hold on)
Yup, the SNP had now inherited the lazy voter from SLab and many could be filled by the current sea of Yellow into thinking it is a solid sea of Yellow. Plenty of seats are in striking range.
I am looking at the top 10 (combined) LD and Tory target seats on the constituency market when it goes lives as I think SNP minus 10 seats is very possible.
Alastair, I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
Malcolm I agree.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
I thought Curtice was telling us last night that a Tory majority of 90 or more was virtually impossible, on account of Labour's great rock solid support in its heartlands.
Make your mind up Laddie!
Nice block of blue gingham there..... I still somehow feel it won't be quite that impressive, come the day. But a majority north of thirty will nicely do the job.
I just don't think it is feasible, politically, not to grab the opportunity of an early GE if you are the opposition.
Labour would not be preventing an early GE.
Head. Desk. Bang.
Yes. They. Would.
Besides there's no reason why May would need to go down the no confidence route. The alternative is that she takes the gift of Corbyn having humiliated Labour to a new record low by rejecting the early general election and votes AGAINST any no confidence motion and continues to govern.
Labour would be plunging to single digits in that scenario as their voters fume at the Tory government continuing without an election.
So my hot take is the Labour absolutely have to get May to commit to brexit position. At that point they can then adopt a liberal Democrat like strategy and try to appear harder than that brexit position in hard brexit seats and softer than that position in remain seats.
If May goes for a soft brexit position or attempts to avoid spelling out a concrete brexit position then try and get UKIP riled.
It's a terrible strategy but I think it is the only one they have. Get May to spell out her brexit position
I think that is correct strategy.
Such a two-faced strategy works extremely well for parties with no hope of power, as they never have to actually implement their two-faces (vide the LibDems until 2010, & the SNP/PC).
It may well work for Labour this time.
What I actually suspect is that there will a complete collapse of Labour discipline, and it will be every MP for themselves. So, a Labour MP in Remainer Cambridge will be a Staunch Remainer, a Labour MP in Leaver North East will miraculously be a Staunch Leaver.
90 per cent of Labour MPs will state they accept the verdict of their constituency in the Referendum (whether Remain or Leave) and are keen to implement it.
This will limit Labour losses, so (unless the campaign is a complete catastrophe), I don’t think the Tories will get a landslide, or the LDs get to 20 seats.
Probably any Labour MP with a majority of < 2000 -3000 is gone, but the rest pull through.
May has declared this as a Brexit referendum, so will have to show some Brexit cards. Will the punters like them? and will it tie her (soft remainer) hands?
I think Labour are shit enough that they'll fail to make May show her cards.
If she has a vision for Brexit, the PM can indeed lay it out and campaign for it and indeed win a mandate for it. Some of us who think this is about the election expenses scandal and not Brexit remain sceptical.
It will be interesting if the CPS prefer charges against 30 candidates in mid-campaign.
CPS - FTPA - Corbyn - Brexit. The whole thing feels like an omni-shables
Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
The public knows there's going to be an election. Putting that in a leaflet will seem like nonsense (which it is) to 90% of voters.
"The PM doesn't have confidence in her own Government" seems like nonsense to 90% of voters? Really?
You have a very low opinion of them...
Because it is nonsense. If Corbyn said what william proposed then May would retort instantly that she wants the election so will instruct her MPs to abstain on the no confidence ballot in order to get the election. The public will know that it was to get the election as no voter will be unaware by that point that she'd called for an election already.
All you'd get is a two-week delay to the election and Labour a laughing stock for having caused that delay.
But she might have to make way as PM in the meantime whilst Corbyn forms a Government and goes through the motions of trying to win an Affirmative Confidence Vote himself. Why is Corbyn - and his advisers - so thick that he cannot work this out?
Surely the most generous bet currently available is this offering from Shadsy:
Labour to win more votes than Lib Dems ....... 1/4
In 2015 Labour won 9,347 million votes or 30.4% of the popular vote, almost four times as many as the LibDems with 2.415 million votes or 7.9%, a difference between the parties therefore of 6.932 million votes.
It is surely inconceivable that the Yellow Team could get anywhere near overhauling Labour's level of support. Were they to halve the gap to around 3.5 million votes, that in itself would be pretty sensational. There aren't too many occasions when Shadsy hands out free money, but this opportunity to make a 25% return on your money in just a few short weeks is surely one such occasion. Not a terribly exciting bet, but it looks like an absolute certainty. That said, DYOR.
There are around 4m people who voted LD as recently as 2010 who didn’t do so in 2015. If they, or even 70 or % decide that they’ve ‘forgiven’ the Coalition years, then plus a number of new voters who want as little Brexit as possible , i.e. the Single Market, the LD’s could easily be up to the 6m mark.
There really has to be an award for the most Optimistic LibDem Prognostication ("The Golden Sandal").
In the absence of Mark Senior, you’re winning here.
Latest projection for Scotland from Electoral Calculus is SNP 56 Tories 2 Lib Dem 1.
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
Can anyone hazard a guess at the final numbers for the Lib Dems? I'm guessing somewhere between 30 and 55 with the Scottish Nats staying roughly where they are.
20 LibDems MP's tops with a good number of decent second places.
That is my ballpark too.
I have taken this on LD Seat Spreads at Ladbrokes.
Labour really need to get the thing about Tories getting prosecuted for electoral fraud into the news somehow. Can't they make their support for a new election conditional on some worthy-sounding investigation or reform?
As has been repeatedly pointed out, this is fake news.
We do not know that they are all or even mostly Tories (& I linked yesterday to a specific LibDem in trouble and already fined the maximum in Ceredigion). And we do not know that they are going to be prosecuted.
We know ~ 30 people (including the LibDem agent in Ceredigion) have had files passed to the CPS.
Comments
I have just come over all faint and must now lie down for a bit...
I cannot see them losing 10 seats , would you like a little wager on that. I offered same to TGOHF yesterday but he did not have the courage of his convictions.
A big Con majority won by virtue of swings from UKIP and from Lab/LD Leavers is not a mandate for a soft Brexit and if that's the way those voters perceive things going, they'll melt away like snow in April.
It's about Labour MPs being able to put on their election leaflets "The PM doesn't have confidence in a Tory Government. Why should you?" instead of "The PM said jump and Labour asked 'How High?'"
But he won't. Becuase he is F*&^ing useless.
The driving seat was occupied the second the Prime Minister stood at a lectern outside Downing Street and called for an election to the waiting media. The media is now on an election footing and was before Labour had a chance to respond. They have guaranteed ratings and articles coming for the next 7 weeks and woe befall any intransigent opposition that gets in the way of that.
Anyone who tries to prat around with Parliamentary procedures now is not going to be respected for that.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854579660562341889
Now it is clear.
The possibility of the SNP losing seats must be way greater than the possibility of them gaining seats (because 2015 was so good). They would need Unionist tactical voting to lose 10, but the conditions for that in some seats are now there, & so Alastair’s prediction is quite possible.
To be clear, I’d probably go for more modest SNP losses (~ 5) though.
That said, if there was a competent leader of the opposition we wouldn't be having this general election in the first place.
I assume the SNP is standing candidates against McGarry and Thomson?
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/608035/Table_for_publication_v1.3.pdf
It shows how much tax would be raised/reduced by increasing/decreasing tax rates and allowance.
For example increasing the additional tax rate of 45% to 46% only raises about £100m compared with the £4b raised by increasing the 20% basic rate to 21%.
They would be making the PM votedown her own Government to get the early election she craves.
Opposition. A novel concept.
Sometimes people here really miss the wood for the trees.
I watched Lucy Powell last night, you might as well elect a pot of yoghurt.
Perhaps he'll amaze everyone at PMQs by pulling a rabbit from this particular hat .... it would certainly make for some great drama in the HoC. I wonder whether Mrs May is fully prepared for such a situation?
What odds from Shadsy that her retort would be "Frit, Frit, Frit!"
You have a very low opinion of them...
Even worse was McDonnell completely floundering on answering what Labour wanted with respect to single market and customs union access. As far as I could tell Labour want the have your cake and eat it level of access that the government has already accepted as impossible. i.e. No four freedoms of the single market, and in the customs union but also able to have our own trade deals. Given that the EU have already made clear that ain't happening it strikes me as a tad optimistic.
All you'd get is a two-week delay to the election and Labour a laughing stock for having caused that delay.
It is hard to disagree with SO !!
They should be getting something like 15-25. More than that probably requires Corbyn or May to get something drastically wrong.
yes theyre that bad,
Something is in the wind ..... Malc for LD Leader?
I preferred the 1.66 (now 1.57) on UKIP being under 10%.
Make your mind up Laddie!
Gnomic tweeting from NM.
https://twitter.com/NMcGarryMP/status/854310674826231808
Natalie M-M @NatalieMcgarry 23m23 minutes ago
Deleted earlier tweets as want nothing quotable used by self serving types. But thanks all.
Working on the assumption that they are reduced to circa 180 to 200 seats, so a 30 to 50 reduction from the current 229. In rough terms that is a a reduction of between 13% and 20%.
How will this change the balance on the somewhat outdated left right balance of the party? With retirements in seats that are subsequently won, will there be a change in balance? Which candidates will that favour?
Who will be left to get nominations for the next leader? Will the Left still hold sway in the membership? Will Jeremy hang on until conference to have an orderly handover, after his mate Jolly Johns amendment has passed?
My instinct is the Corbyn remains after defeat for up to 12 months to allow the changes he wants to structures to be installed in the rule book, if the Unions allow him to (but why wouldn't they - no election in the short term, so sort the structure to your advantage).
What is the benefit of the new PLP forcing a leadership election if there is a risk that the membership will select JC again? As it is established he can stand, regardless of nominations, they almost have to wait for him to resign if the membership is still expected to support his brand of politics, after all, power is not the short term goal or expectation for many of his supporters.
It may not be the quick fix for Labour that many are projecting.
If so, how long before a Conservative government implements some of the policies?
Mr. Meeks, well, quite, but you pay your money (or not) and make your choice.
Mr. Herdson, it did remind me of Clegg whipping his party to abstain on a Lisbon referendum (he wanted a meaningful one on membership of the EU...).
Turnips are a forrin import and will not be permitted.
MT maybe does.
Head. Desk. Bang.
...an estimated 126 majority... Lib Dem’s crystal clear pro-EU stance destined, thinks Crosby, to regain 27 seats lost to Tories in 2015...
Besides there's no reason why May would need to go down the no confidence route. The alternative is that she takes the gift of Corbyn having humiliated Labour to a new record low by rejecting the early general election and votes AGAINST any no confidence motion and continues to govern.
Labour would be plunging to single digits in that scenario as their voters fume at the Tory government continuing without an election.
CPS - FTPA - Corbyn - Brexit. The whole thing feels like an omni-shables
The MSM will claim the doubling (who knows, perhaps quintupling) of the Tory seats to be clear evidence of opposition to a second independence referendum. They really will :-)
The comfortable Tory victory in the UK as a whole will be portrayed by May as a countervailing mandate to block the independence referendum.
Anyone who thinks this combination of events is not going .to be interpreted by a majority of Scots as the crushing of Scotland by the Tories in a profoundly undemocratic way probably hasn't spotted that the UK Union is coming to an end.
We do not know that they are all or even mostly Tories (& I linked yesterday to a specific LibDem in trouble and already fined the maximum in Ceredigion). And we do not know that they are going to be prosecuted.
We know ~ 30 people (including the LibDem agent in Ceredigion) have had files passed to the CPS.