politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchest

MarkHopkins said:

MTimT said:

kle4 said:

isam said:

In loving memory of @PlatoSaid

https://twitter.com/dorseyshaw/status/847563000869523458

That is seriously so damn adorable.

I love seeing man's power over the animal kingdom.

Man's power over the animal kingdom? Who exactly is serving whom in that video?

Dogs have masters.

Cats have staff.

Ain’t that the truth.

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

Roger said:

isam said:

Guardianistas of the world, Unite & take over...

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938

Too late. The Daily Mailstas got there first

Who cares about Gibraltar? It's a colonial relic... Brit expatriates are truly the most irritating people in the world! Always moaning about how 'fings' aren't what they used to be back 'ome...

Who's talking about expats? These are Gibraltarians.

As for being a relic, that may be so, what of it? Spain has no legitimate claim on it and the people are happy to stay in the UK (unless for 50% of them leaving the EU is so traumatic they are suddenly happy to go Spanish) so it is what it is. As citizens their rights are our responsibility too.

A good point, I went 'off-piste' with my rant. But Gibraltar and the denizens of that fair rock fail to move me I'm afraid...

AlastairMeeks said:

Off topic, who are these people who want to back Francois Fillon at such short prices, and why?

Speculation, but maybe they are seeing an unpopular Socialist President, an unacceptable right winger in Le Pen and an unconvincing Blairite in Macron. There is always the temptation to see politics abroad as analogous to our own and so the centre right is favoured. However France has never really had a Macron type figure, and Fillon is damaged beyond repair imho. Much of the money must be for who they would personally choose to support which is of course a schoolboy error.

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are the Scots going to leave, what's changed? Are the opinion polls showing a massive clammering for Independence?

If you have to ask what's changed then you are stumbling in the dark. The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.

Why are they going to stay?

Because they like being part of this country.

MarkSenior said:

Pierre said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?

No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...

You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin

You're listening to the mother of all talk shows... Errr, I mean I don't know who this 'George Galloway' is? Honest...

williamglenn said:

chestnut said:

williamglenn said:

The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.

Why?

Sovereignty.

The further Brexit proceeds, the more politically alienating it will be. If you're handcuffed to someone running towards a cliff-edge you have to free yourself somehow.

There is no cliff edge except in your rather lurid imagination.

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are the Scots going to leave, what's changed? Are the opinion polls showing a massive clammering for Independence?

If you have to ask what's changed then you are stumbling in the dark. The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.

Why are they going to stay?

They're going to stay for the same reasons they stayed three years ago. Which is why surveys still show No in the lead "despite Brexit".

AndyJS said:

These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):

Lab -5%
Con -1%
LD +6%
UKIP +1%
Greens nc

8 seats would change hands:

Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab
Brentford: Con gain from Lab
Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab
Enfield North: Con gain from Lab
Hampstead: Con gain from Lab
Ilford North: Con gain from Lab
Kingston: LD gain from Con
Twickenham: LD gain from Con

Con +3 seats
Lab -6 seats
LD +3 seats

However you cut it, those are simply disastrous figures for Labour. Seven years into opposition and their polling is going into reverse. Will anyone sensible in the Labour party smell the coffee before it really is too late? I hope not, of course, because I want to see Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell eviscerated by the public at a GE. Then they can crawl their filth back to whatever sewer they came from, and we can go back to normality.

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are the Scots going to leave, what's changed? Are the opinion polls showing a massive clammering for Independence?

If you have to ask what's changed then you are stumbling in the dark. The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.

Why are they going to stay?

They're going to stay for the same reasons they stayed three years ago. Which is why surveys still show No in the lead "despite Brexit".

We're on day 2 of the real start of Brexit. Let's see what happens before judging public opinion.

Jason said:

AndyJS said:

These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):

Lab -5%
Con -1%
LD +6%
UKIP +1%
Greens nc

8 seats would change hands:

Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab
Brentford: Con gain from Lab
Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab
Enfield North: Con gain from Lab
Hampstead: Con gain from Lab
Ilford North: Con gain from Lab
Kingston: LD gain from Con
Twickenham: LD gain from Con

Con +3 seats
Lab -6 seats
LD +3 seats

However you cut it, those are simply disastrous figures for Labour. Seven years into opposition and their polling is going into reverse. Will anyone sensible in the Labour party smell the coffee before it really is too late? I hope not, of course, because I want to see Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell eviscerated by the public at a GE. Then they can crawl their filth back to whatever sewer they came from, and we can go back to normality.

The answer to your question is quite simply no. The labour party is 18 months in to a slow death spiral. The left wing of the labour party will be happy with a) complete control of the labour party, b) 50 seats in parliament, c) a narrative that blames the right wing of the party for its failure.
The polls etc literally don't matter.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847908650735763456

The Mail is not fond of Charles. They ran a most unflattering article about his various foibles last Saturday.

justin124 said:

AndyJS said:

These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):

Lab -5%
Con -1%
LD +6%
UKIP +1%
Greens nc

8 seats would change hands:

Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab
Brentford: Con gain from Lab
Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab
Enfield North: Con gain from Lab
Hampstead: Con gain from Lab
Ilford North: Con gain from Lab
Kingston: LD gain from Con
Twickenham: LD gain from Con

Con +3 seats
Lab -6 seats
LD +3 seats

I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015!
I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.

You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.

AlastairMeeks said:

A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.

I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.

The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'

It's like a Brexit debate on speed.

AlastairMeeks said:

A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.

Your opinion is to state you have 'no opinion'.

If you had no opinion you wouldn't have mentioned them at all.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.

I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.

The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'

It's like a Brexit debate on speed.

Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender. But this is not my battle.

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.

I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.

The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'

It's like a Brexit debate on speed.

Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender. But this is not my battle.

I could deal with a female Doctor. My red line is that the actor playing the Doctor is from the British Isles.

SeanT said:

This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.

My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied

"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"

Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.

Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.

Tomorrow belongs to me.

SeanT said:

This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.

My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied

"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"

Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.

Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.

Where is your niece based if I may ask ?

I certainly feel sympathy for that generation and younger as they've really been shafted on housing, pensions, student debt for worthless degrees and being told that the future was theirs only to discover a harder reality.

But I suspect this is hitting those who moved to London, expecting to live the dream, the hardest.

SeanT said:

This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.

My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied

"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"

Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.

Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.

Nope, don't let the fact the loud ones are like that confuse you.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.

I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.

The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'

It's like a Brexit debate on speed.

Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender. But this is not my battle.

I could deal with a female Doctor. My red line is that the actor playing the Doctor is from the British Isles.

Born in the British Isles, or born to citizens of the British Isles (presumably including the Republic)? How about a Klingon born in Wales?

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.

I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.

The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'

It's like a Brexit debate on speed.

Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender.

Indeed. With any such changes, I always ask, was the original gender/race/whatever truly integral to the character? I'm not a huge Who fan, but I have never gotten the impression that, although he has always been a man, being a man was core to the character in the same way, perhaps, that it is for Bond for example.

justin124 said:

Ally_B said:

justin124 said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

justin124 said:

I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015!
I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.

You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.

I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.

I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.

No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.

It may well be that Labour's polling ceiling is now 30%.

More than a decade of Messiah Blair, Brown and his thugs, the Potemkin Princes and now Corbyn and co can have long term effects.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847909836620791808

Pierre said:

kyf_100 said:

Pierre said:

MarkSenior said:

Pierre said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?

No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...

You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin

Miaow...

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?

No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...

Didn't work for him in London of course.

But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...

Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a brok

But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...

Very little chance is not no chance. Remember that the core of the party reduced into single figures, rebuilt over decades, and has been similarly reduced once again, but keeps plugging away. If they plan to - and our intention is only one of the issues with it as an idea - it will take decades.

BBC4 has vintage Top of the Pops on right now.

Absolutely fantastic.

RochdalePioneers said:

Paul Waugh on the former political party known as Labour:

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Oh dear God...

As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are the Scots going to leave, what's changed? Are the opinion polls showing a massive clammering for Independence?

If you have to ask what's changed then you are stumbling in the dark. The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.

Why are they going to stay?

They're going to stay for the same reasons they stayed three years ago. Which is why surveys still show No in the lead "despite Brexit".

We're on day 2 of the real start of Brexit. Let's see what happens before judging public opinion.

But you were already judging public opinion. You are already declaring giddily that Scotland is going to leave despite the Scots voting otherwise recently and despite the polls showing nothing has changed in that regard.

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.

My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied

"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"

Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.

Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.

Tomorrow belongs to me.

I fear it does.... EXCEPT that the generation after the Meeks Generation of Twat Faced Wankers seems to be much more right wing. Or so I have observed. And I've closely encountered a few of these twats, recently.

Music to my ears.

It's the natural swing of the pendulum, exacerbated by financial reality.

The kids under, say, 23, are just bored of all the identity weirdness. Plus they realise that they will have to work very very much harder than their parents and grandparents, to achieve a similarly decent standard of living.

If they are politically aware, they often have surprisingly flinty attitudes on migration and benefits, for instance.

I do find the younger people (as I am now 30 I am no longer young) tend to be quite a bit harsher on economic issues than most people of my own generation, although it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in party preferences and perceptions of left/right wingedness,

Of course does this mean we're going to get people getting more overtly left wing as they age now?

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Paul Waugh on the former political party known as Labour:

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Oh dear God...

As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Paul Waugh on the former political party known as Labour:

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Oh dear God...

As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.

Either Labour will get their act together or a new left wing party will replace it.

AlastairMeeks said:

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

justin124 said:

Ally_B said:

justin124 said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

justin124 said:

I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015!
I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.

You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.

I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.

I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.

No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.

Why? Ed Miliband got just 31% in 2015 and he didn't follow a leader that had reduced the Labour party to an incoherent rabble.

The first sign that people are, as predicted, starting to feel nostalgic for Brown?

After all the idea that Labour under him were not an incoherent rabble is definitely a step in his rehabilitation given he fared worse than Major in 1997.

Gordon Brown was a very poor leader. However, he left the Labour party functioning.

Not before his attack dogs have ruined the reputation of some of the more sensible and talented members of the party.

SeanT said:

Pierre said:

kyf_100 said:

Pierre said:

MarkSenior said:

Pierre said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?

No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...

You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin

Miaow...

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

G

You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?

No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...

Didn't work for him in London of course.

But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...

Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a brok

But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...

Very little chance is not no chance. Remember that the core of the party reduced into single figures, rebuilt over decades, and has been similarly reduced once again, but keeps plugging away. If they plan to - and our intention is only one of the issues with it as an idea - it will take decades.

I just doubt its ability to reform.

It was what swung it for me.

Might take us leaving for it to become more like what we wished it would be. Or it could go even further in the other direction.

SeanT said:

I think it is perfectly conceivable we could rejoin the EU in 20-30 years time, if it reforms itself in the way it should (properly multi-speed, Single Market for everyone, democratically elected commissioners).

I just doubt its ability to reform. Being-a-bit-shit and non-democratic is in its French DNA. I hope it does reform and we can rejoin the Single Market.

EU Reform....the only reform on the table at the moment is ever closer union....which despite what the EU elite say isn't what huge percentage of France, Italy, Holland, Greece want.

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

kyf_100 said:

Pierre said:

MarkSenior said:

Pierre said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.

Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...

You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?

No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...

You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin

Miaow...

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

kle4 said:

Pierre said:

I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.

G

You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?

No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...

Didn't work for him in London of course.

But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...

Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a brok

But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...

Very .

I think it is perfectly conceivable we could rejoin the EU in 20-30 years time, if it reforms itself in the way it should (properly multi-speed, Single Market for everyone, democratically elected commissioners).

I just doubt its ability to reform. Being-a-bit-shit and non-democratic is in its French DNA. I hope it does reform and we can rejoin the Single Market.

We will never rejoin the EU now in my view but the next Labour government (assuming there is one) may well take us back into the Single Market

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.

My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied

"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"

Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.

Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.

Tomorrow belongs to me.

I fear it does.... EXCEPT that the generation after the Meeks Generation of Twat Faced Wankers seems to be much more right wing. Or so I have observed. And I've closely encountered a few of these twats, recently.

Music to my ears.

It's the natural swing of the pendulum, exacerbated by financial reality.

The kids under, say, 23, are just bored of all the identity weirdness. Plus they realise that they will have to work very very much harder than their parents and grandparents, to achieve a similarly decent standard of living.

If they are politically aware, they often have surprisingly flinty attitudes on migration and benefits, for instance.

I do find the younger people (as I am now 30 I am no longer young) tend to be quite a bit harsher on economic issues than most people of my own generation, although it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in party preferences and perceptions of left/right wingedness,

Of course does this mean we're going to get people getting more overtly left wing as they age now?

I'd say the young are more economically right wing, but socially left wing than us.

Should be good for orange book Lib Dems post Brexit.

Hello Angry Losers


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdG57lgHFaA

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

I think it is perfectly conceivable we could rejoin the EU in 20-30 years time, if it reforms itself in the way it should (properly multi-speed, Single Market for everyone, democratically elected commissioners).

I just doubt its ability to reform. Being-a-bit-shit and non-democratic is in its French DNA. I hope it does reform and we can rejoin the Single Market.

EU Reform....the only reform on the table at the moment is ever closer union....which despite what the EU elite say isn't what huge percentage of France, Italy, Holland, Greece want.

They don't dislike it enough to stop doing it.

The rise of politicians in those countries has gone from weird minor extremist candidates to being in mainstream contesting for power (even if they won't quite make it). That should be warning enough, but it won't be.

Nothing wrong with the concept of a single market, the problem is all the other s##t...and the EU big whigs response is more of the other s##t is required.

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847909836620791808

Can you specify the date on which you think Boris went into default on this promise?

8th of February 2017

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexiteers-condemned-for-not-backing-350m-nhs-amendment-to-eu-withdrawal-bill-a7570336.html?amp

So in spite of everything that's happening to Labour under Corbyn they remain the number one party of Londoners. And the one major London newspaper is naturally now edited by George Osborne.

The day Prince Charles tried to halt a war: How the future king phoned the US ambassador to ask for a delay on the Afghan invasion... because he wanted to 'honour' Ramadan

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4369730/The-day-Prince-Charles-tried-halt-war.html

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847909836620791808

Can you specify the date on which you think Boris went into default on this promise?

8th of February 2017

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexiteers-condemned-for-not-backing-350m-nhs-amendment-to-eu-withdrawal-bill-a7570336.html?amp

Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.

Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.

Pierre said:

But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...

I agree. And I'm a leaver, so am pleased.

However this is a gambling site, and I bet where I think the odds are good, not on the outcome I hope to see.

Labour's core vote won't turn out, their Muslim vote will go for Galloway, while the Lib Dems will soak up the remainer vote from Labour, wet Tories and the student population, who don't even know they're born yet.

6/1 sounds pretty good to me. Still think Labour will probably win it, but 6/1 is a very good price, now Gorgeous George is involved.

FrankBooth said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Paul Waugh on the former political party known as Labour:

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Oh dear God...

As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Paul Waugh on the former political party known as Labour:

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Oh dear God...

As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.

Either Labour will get their act together or a new left wing party will replace it.

But there's no easy answer. In some respects they have to choose between diversity and collectivism, there being no easy answer. They can console themselves with the fact that most other centre left parties are also collapsing in spite of perhaps the most anti-corporate/capitalist mood in modern times. Such is life in 2017.

Not everywhere, where the centre left has a reasonably charismatic, centrist leader eg Trudeau, Macron they are ahead in the polls, when Labour eventually does the same they have a chance of returning to power

NickPalmer said:

HYUFD said:

BudG said:

Apologies if this has been posted before this evening, but this is quite a significant poll from Odoxa tonight.

Since their last poll just before the last TV debate:

Melenchon up 5.5 to 16
Fillon down 2 to 17

Shows what a difference that debate made to Melenchon's support and with another TV debate coming up next tuesday, there must be a real chance of Melenchon moving into third spot as the main challenger to Macron and Le Pen by the end of next week.

http://www.odoxa.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Intention-de-vote-presidentielle-Dentsu-Consulting-LePoint-31-03-17.pdf

Even more interesting is the runoff poll, Macron 59% Le Pen 41%, a 5% swing from Macron to Le Pen in a fortnight. Melenchon's gains have mainly come from Hamon who is down to 8%, so there is little room for him to squeeze Hamon much further
http://www.odoxa.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Intention-de-vote-presidentielle-Dentsu-Consulting-LePoint-31-03-17.pdf

I wouldn't go overboard on one poll (it's not the latest one) - the overall picture for the runoff looks remarkably stable at 60-40. Macon's been in the 60-65 range vs Le Pen ever since Xmas and the latest polls have him at 63,64,60,63,59,60,60.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Fillon is clearly sliding and I predicted last week that Melanchon could overtake him. But I agree it's hard to see him getting into the last two.

Given the tendency in almost all recent elections for the main centre right party/candidate to outperform the polls I think Fillon will comfortably hold third place in the end though I agree he will still fail to make the runoff which will almost certainly be Macron v Le Pen now

AnneJGP said:

Ishmael_Z said:

another_richard said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847909836620791808

Can you specify the date on which you think Boris went into default on this promise?

8th of February 2017

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexiteers-condemned-for-not-backing-350m-nhs-amendment-to-eu-withdrawal-bill-a7570336.html?amp

Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.

Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.

And with room to spare, I would think.

And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.

Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.

Bad Al is their editor at large.....

FrancisUrquhart said:

AnneJGP said:

Ishmael_Z said:

another_richard said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847909836620791808

Can you specify the date on which you think Boris went into default on this promise?

8th of February 2017

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexiteers-condemned-for-not-backing-350m-nhs-amendment-to-eu-withdrawal-bill-a7570336.html?amp

Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.

Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.

And with room to spare, I would think.

And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.

Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.

Bad Al is their editor at large.....

Pravda - Celebrating all that's good about the USSR!

Ishmael_Z said:

AnneJGP said:

Ishmael_Z said:

another_richard said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847909836620791808

Can you specify the date on which you think Boris went into default on this promise?

8th of February 2017

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexiteers-condemned-for-not-backing-350m-nhs-amendment-to-eu-withdrawal-bill-a7570336.html?amp

Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.

Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.

And with room to spare, I would think.

And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.

Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.

Remainer time scales are completely Alice through the Looking Glass. "Oh look, the most important plebiscite of our lifetimes, let's await the result before deciding whether to campaign or not." "Oh look, we are 48 hours into a process guaranteed to last for two years, the time for a conclusive judgment on the end result of the process is well overdue."

But it does address the key issues voters worry about:

Michelin restaurants in Britain: How will Brexit impact UK fine dining?

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/culture/michelin_restaurants_in_britain_how_will_brexit_impact_uk_fine_dining_1_4839214

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847909836620791808

There cannot be many things in life worth less than a promise from Boris?