Which is why it makes sense to ask why it has even been mentioned?
What's the real reason that they have felt the need to stress that it has no automatic right to share a UK/EU trade deal, that it needs co-authorisation from both parties for future inclusion and that the EU overall will not intervene or mediate?
Never been mentioned because it's Leavers were taking about. They don't do consequences and will still be bleating "no-one expected that to happen" when the Scots and Irish leave.
Gibraltar gets no inherited rights, no automatic trade deal, needs the say so of both the UK and EU to be allowed in on the deal and the EU refuses to intervene.
That looks like precedent setting for other 'independent' regions to me.
Who cares about Gibraltar? It's a colonial relic... Brit expatriates are truly the most irritating people in the world! Always moaning about how 'fings' aren't what they used to be back 'ome...
Who's talking about expats? These are Gibraltarians.
As for being a relic, that may be so, what of it? Spain has no legitimate claim on it and the people are happy to stay in the UK (unless for 50% of them leaving the EU is so traumatic they are suddenly happy to go Spanish) so it is what it is. As citizens their rights are our responsibility too.
A good point, I went 'off-piste' with my rant. But Gibraltar and the denizens of that fair rock fail to move me I'm afraid...
Off topic, who are these people who want to back Francois Fillon at such short prices, and why?
Speculation, but maybe they are seeing an unpopular Socialist President, an unacceptable right winger in Le Pen and an unconvincing Blairite in Macron. There is always the temptation to see politics abroad as analogous to our own and so the centre right is favoured. However France has never really had a Macron type figure, and Fillon is damaged beyond repair imho. Much of the money must be for who they would personally choose to support which is of course a schoolboy error.
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
Didn't work for him in London of course.
But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...
These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):
Lab -5% Con -1% LD +6% UKIP +1% Greens nc
8 seats would change hands:
Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab Brentford: Con gain from Lab Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab Enfield North: Con gain from Lab Hampstead: Con gain from Lab Ilford North: Con gain from Lab Kingston: LD gain from Con Twickenham: LD gain from Con
Con +3 seats Lab -6 seats LD +3 seats
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
Who cares about Gibraltar? It's a colonial relic... Brit expatriates are truly the most irritating people in the world! Always moaning about how 'fings' aren't what they used to be back 'ome...
Expats? My wife's family arrived here from Malta in 1708.
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
You're listening to the mother of all talk shows... Errr, I mean I don't know who this 'George Galloway' is? Honest...
The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.
Why?
Sovereignty.
The further Brexit proceeds, the more politically alienating it will be. If you're handcuffed to someone running towards a cliff-edge you have to free yourself somehow.
The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.
Why?
Sovereignty.
The further Brexit proceeds, the more politically alienating it will be. If you're handcuffed to someone running towards a cliff-edge you have to free yourself somehow.
There is no cliff edge except in your rather lurid imagination.
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
Didn't work for him in London of course.
But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...
Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a broken promise 7 years ago, when most of today's crop of students were twelve or thirteen years old. To them, it's literally ancient history.
All that matters is the Lib Dems are pro Europe and Labour is seen as inert on the issue under Corbyn. I backed the Lib Dems at 6/1 when I heard Galloway was standing. Genuinely think they could come through the middle.
These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):
Lab -5% Con -1% LD +6% UKIP +1% Greens nc
8 seats would change hands:
Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab Brentford: Con gain from Lab Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab Enfield North: Con gain from Lab Hampstead: Con gain from Lab Ilford North: Con gain from Lab Kingston: LD gain from Con Twickenham: LD gain from Con
Con +3 seats Lab -6 seats LD +3 seats
However you cut it, those are simply disastrous figures for Labour. Seven years into opposition and their polling is going into reverse. Will anyone sensible in the Labour party smell the coffee before it really is too late? I hope not, of course, because I want to see Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell eviscerated by the public at a GE. Then they can crawl their filth back to whatever sewer they came from, and we can go back to normality.
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
Didn't work for him in London of course.
But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...
Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a broken promise 7 years ago, when most of today's crop of students were twelve or thirteen years old. To them, it's literally ancient history.
All that matters is the Lib Dems are pro Europe and Labour is seen as inert on the issue under Corbyn. I backed the Lib Dems at 6/1 when I heard Galloway was standing. Genuinely think they could come through the middle.
But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...
These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):
Lab -5% Con -1% LD +6% UKIP +1% Greens nc
8 seats would change hands:
Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab Brentford: Con gain from Lab Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab Enfield North: Con gain from Lab Hampstead: Con gain from Lab Ilford North: Con gain from Lab Kingston: LD gain from Con Twickenham: LD gain from Con
Con +3 seats Lab -6 seats LD +3 seats
However you cut it, those are simply disastrous figures for Labour. Seven years into opposition and their polling is going into reverse. Will anyone sensible in the Labour party smell the coffee before it really is too late? I hope not, of course, because I want to see Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell eviscerated by the public at a GE. Then they can crawl their filth back to whatever sewer they came from, and we can go back to normality.
The answer to your question is quite simply no. The labour party is 18 months in to a slow death spiral. The left wing of the labour party will be happy with a) complete control of the labour party, b) 50 seats in parliament, c) a narrative that blames the right wing of the party for its failure. The polls etc literally don't matter.
If you've never watched it then I suggest you have no grounds to pass opinion as to whether or not it's rubbish. I've watched it since I was 9 and loved every minute of it. (I'm almost 43 now).
These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):
Lab -5% Con -1% LD +6% UKIP +1% Greens nc
8 seats would change hands:
Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab Brentford: Con gain from Lab Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab Enfield North: Con gain from Lab Hampstead: Con gain from Lab Ilford North: Con gain from Lab Kingston: LD gain from Con Twickenham: LD gain from Con
Con +3 seats Lab -6 seats LD +3 seats
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):
Lab -5% Con -1% LD +6% UKIP +1% Greens nc
8 seats would change hands:
Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab Brentford: Con gain from Lab Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab Enfield North: Con gain from Lab Hampstead: Con gain from Lab Ilford North: Con gain from Lab Kingston: LD gain from Con Twickenham: LD gain from Con
Con +3 seats Lab -6 seats LD +3 seats
However you cut it, those are simply disastrous figures for Labour. Seven years into opposition and their polling is going into reverse. Will anyone sensible in the Labour party smell the coffee before it really is too late? I hope not, of course, because I want to see Corbyn, Abbott & McDonnell eviscerated by the public at a GE. Then they can crawl their filth back to whatever sewer they came from, and we can go back to normality.
The London numbers aren't that bad, they are 2010 levels. Their problem is everywhere else.
I'd put them sub 20 in SW, SE and Scotland 20-25 E Mids, W Mids, East England 30-33 Wales, Y and H 34-38 NE, NW, London
Isam. All you need to know about that video not to take it seriously is that it came from PETA. They are idiots, who think that having pets or domesticated animals per se is bad, and then operate pet rescue shelters with among the highest kill rates of any in the US.
A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.
I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender. But this is not my battle.
A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.
I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender. But this is not my battle.
I could deal with a female Doctor. My red line is that the actor playing the Doctor is from the British Isles.
These are the changes in today's London opinion poll from the general election, (with UKIP actually up slightly):
Lab -5% Con -1% LD +6% UKIP +1% Greens nc
8 seats would change hands:
Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab Brentford: Con gain from Lab Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab Enfield North: Con gain from Lab Hampstead: Con gain from Lab Ilford North: Con gain from Lab Kingston: LD gain from Con Twickenham: LD gain from Con
Con +3 seats Lab -6 seats LD +3 seats
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
Tomorrow belongs to me.
Do you really want to be associated with the theme song for the Nazi Youth?
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
Where is your niece based if I may ask ?
I certainly feel sympathy for that generation and younger as they've really been shafted on housing, pensions, student debt for worthless degrees and being told that the future was theirs only to discover a harder reality.
But I suspect this is hitting those who moved to London, expecting to live the dream, the hardest.
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
Nope, don't let the fact the loud ones are like that confuse you.
Apologies if this has been posted before this evening, but this is quite a significant poll from Odoxa tonight.
Since their last poll just before the last TV debate:
Melenchon up 5.5 to 16 Fillon down 2 to 17
Shows what a difference that debate made to Melenchon's support and with another TV debate coming up next tuesday, there must be a real chance of Melenchon moving into third spot as the main challenger to Macron and Le Pen by the end of next week.
A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.
I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender. But this is not my battle.
I could deal with a female Doctor. My red line is that the actor playing the Doctor is from the British Isles.
Born in the British Isles, or born to citizens of the British Isles (presumably including the Republic)? How about a Klingon born in Wales?
A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.
I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender. But this is not my battle.
I could deal with a female Doctor. My red line is that the actor playing the Doctor is from the British Isles.
Born in the British Isles, or born to citizens of the British Isles (presumably including the Republic)? How about a Klingon born in Wales?
Could work, I'm a bit blood and soil nationalist when it comes to the Doctor.
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.
No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.
A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.
I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
Up until the 2014 series of Doctor Who my stock response used to be "The Doctor can played by a woman the day after Miss Marple is played by a man." But then the Master was played by a woman in 2014/15 and in the 2015 series we even got to see another Time Lord change gender during a regeneration. So now I have no problem with the idea. All it took for me to change my mind was for the concept to be written into the show's continuity! So fickle aren't I?
A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.
I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
Once you've accepted that the Doctor can ignore the laws of physics and can change his appearance more or less at will, I don't see how you can get too hung up on his current gender.
Indeed. With any such changes, I always ask, was the original gender/race/whatever truly integral to the character? I'm not a huge Who fan, but I have never gotten the impression that, although he has always been a man, being a man was core to the character in the same way, perhaps, that it is for Bond for example.
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.
No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.
Why? Ed Miliband got just 31% in 2015 and he didn't follow a leader that had reduced the Labour party to an incoherent rabble.
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.
No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.
It may well be that Labour's polling ceiling is now 30%.
More than a decade of Messiah Blair, Brown and his thugs, the Potemkin Princes and now Corbyn and co can have long term effects.
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
Tomorrow belongs to me.
I fear it does.... EXCEPT that the generation after the Meeks Generation of Twat Faced Wankers seems to be much more right wing. Or so I have observed. And I've closely encountered a few of these twats, recently.
A gay Doctor Who assistant sits neatly alongside Gibraltar's optimal legal status as something I have absolutely no opinion on.
I had planned to work in a reference to Doctor Who into Sunday's thread.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
Up until the 2014 series of Doctor Who my stock response used to be "The Doctor can played by a woman the day after Miss Marple is played by a man." But then the Master was played by a woman in 2014/15 and in the 2015 series we even got to see another Time Lord change gender during a regeneration. So now I have no problem with the idea. All it took for me to change my mind was for the concept to be written into the show's continuity! So fickle aren't I?
I stopped watching the show decades ago but have fond memories of the first few series.
With all of time & space at the writers' disposal it seems a bit parochial to insist that Dr Who is played by an earthing, never mind a Brit.
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
Didn't work for him in London of course.
But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...
Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a brok
But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...
Very little chance is not no chance. Remember that the core of the party reduced into single figures, rebuilt over decades, and has been similarly reduced once again, but keeps plugging away. If they plan to - and our intention is only one of the issues with it as an idea - it will take decades.
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.
No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.
Why? Ed Miliband got just 31% in 2015 and he didn't follow a leader that had reduced the Labour party to an incoherent rabble.
The first sign that people are, as predicted, starting to feel nostalgic for Brown?
After all the idea that Labour under him were not an incoherent rabble is definitely a step in his rehabilitation given he fared worse than Major in 1997.
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.
No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.
Why? Ed Miliband got just 31% in 2015 and he didn't follow a leader that had reduced the Labour party to an incoherent rabble.
The first sign that people are, as predicted, starting to feel nostalgic for Brown?
After all the idea that Labour under him were not an incoherent rabble is definitely a step in his rehabilitation given he fared worse than Major in 1997.
Gordon Brown was a very poor leader. However, he left the Labour party functioning.
Why are the Scots going to leave, what's changed? Are the opinion polls showing a massive clammering for Independence?
If you have to ask what's changed then you are stumbling in the dark. The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.
Why are they going to stay?
They're going to stay for the same reasons they stayed three years ago. Which is why surveys still show No in the lead "despite Brexit".
We're on day 2 of the real start of Brexit. Let's see what happens before judging public opinion.
But you were already judging public opinion. You are already declaring giddily that Scotland is going to leave despite the Scots voting otherwise recently and despite the polls showing nothing has changed in that regard.
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
Tomorrow belongs to me.
I fear it does.... EXCEPT that the generation after the Meeks Generation of Twat Faced Wankers seems to be much more right wing. Or so I have observed. And I've closely encountered a few of these twats, recently.
Music to my ears.
It's the natural swing of the pendulum, exacerbated by financial reality.
The kids under, say, 23, are just bored of all the identity weirdness. Plus they realise that they will have to work very very much harder than their parents and grandparents, to achieve a similarly decent standard of living.
If they are politically aware, they often have surprisingly flinty attitudes on migration and benefits, for instance.
I do find the younger people (as I am now 30 I am no longer young) tend to be quite a bit harsher on economic issues than most people of my own generation, although it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in party preferences and perceptions of left/right wingedness,
Of course does this mean we're going to get people getting more overtly left wing as they age now?
Apologies if this has been posted before this evening, but this is quite a significant poll from Odoxa tonight.
Since their last poll just before the last TV debate:
Melenchon up 5.5 to 16 Fillon down 2 to 17
Shows what a difference that debate made to Melenchon's support and with another TV debate coming up next tuesday, there must be a real chance of Melenchon moving into third spot as the main challenger to Macron and Le Pen by the end of next week.
I actually thought Labour was down 7% since 2015! I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
You forget one very important factor - the formidable Lib Dem ground forces. Whenever the election is called they are going to know exactly where to target their fire and with thousands of new members they're bound to out-perform their bare polling figures.
I am not persuaded by that. Labour has far more new members but that is hardly helping them either! In most of these former LibDem seats , they will face a double incumbency problem - the loss of their own incumbency bonus and the bonus now likely to be enjoyed by the sitting Labour & Tory MPs.
I would have thought that having the Labour badge next to your name at the next election would be more of an encumbrance rather than offering any incumbency bonus.
No - that would be baked into whatever the polling figures are at the time.Moreover, I would expect Corbyn's departure to see Labour's national ratings to bounce back to circa 35%.
Why? Ed Miliband got just 31% in 2015 and he didn't follow a leader that had reduced the Labour party to an incoherent rabble.
The first sign that people are, as predicted, starting to feel nostalgic for Brown?
After all the idea that Labour under him were not an incoherent rabble is definitely a step in his rehabilitation given he fared worse than Major in 1997.
Gordon Brown was a very poor leader. However, he left the Labour party functioning.
Not before his attack dogs have ruined the reputation of some of the more sensible and talented members of the party.
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
G
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
Didn't work for him in London of course.
But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...
Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a brok
But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...
Very little chance is not no chance. Remember that the core of the party reduced into single figures, rebuilt over decades, and has been similarly reduced once again, but keeps plugging away. If they plan to - and our intention is only one of the issues with it as an idea - it will take decades.
I just doubt its ability to reform.
It was what swung it for me.
Might take us leaving for it to become more like what we wished it would be. Or it could go even further in the other direction.
I think it is perfectly conceivable we could rejoin the EU in 20-30 years time, if it reforms itself in the way it should (properly multi-speed, Single Market for everyone, democratically elected commissioners).
I just doubt its ability to reform. Being-a-bit-shit and non-democratic is in its French DNA. I hope it does reform and we can rejoin the Single Market.
EU Reform....the only reform on the table at the moment is ever closer union....which despite what the EU elite say isn't what huge percentage of France, Italy, Holland, Greece want.
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
You are George Galloway and I claim my new 12 sided pound coin
I think GG will win in Gorton, he has huge support amongst Muslims, BME etc. Plus in a by-election, people are unencumbered by party loyalties like they are at a GE.
G
You don't think he's a horse who's had his day?
No... Parliament is full of lilliputian nothings, you'd have to admit he is a parliamentarian, and his opponents in this by-election are of quite a low calibre...
Didn't work for him in London of course.
But it did in Glasgow Hillhead, Glasgow Kelvin, Bethnal Green and Bow and Bradford West...
Terrible mistake to think that students are anti-Lib Dem because of tutition fees. That was a brok
But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...
Very .
I think it is perfectly conceivable we could rejoin the EU in 20-30 years time, if it reforms itself in the way it should (properly multi-speed, Single Market for everyone, democratically elected commissioners).
I just doubt its ability to reform. Being-a-bit-shit and non-democratic is in its French DNA. I hope it does reform and we can rejoin the Single Market.
We will never rejoin the EU now in my view but the next Labour government (assuming there is one) may well take us back into the Single Market
I think it is perfectly conceivable we could rejoin the EU in 20-30 years time, if it reforms itself in the way it should (properly multi-speed, Single Market for everyone, democratically elected commissioners).
I just doubt its ability to reform. Being-a-bit-shit and non-democratic is in its French DNA. I hope it does reform and we can rejoin the Single Market.
EU Reform....the only reform on the table at the moment is ever closer union....which despite what the EU elite say isn't what huge percentage of France, Italy, Holland, Greece want.
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
Tomorrow belongs to me.
I fear it does.... EXCEPT that the generation after the Meeks Generation of Twat Faced Wankers seems to be much more right wing. Or so I have observed. And I've closely encountered a few of these twats, recently.
Music to my ears.
It's the natural swing of the pendulum, exacerbated by financial reality.
The kids under, say, 23, are just bored of all the identity weirdness. Plus they realise that they will have to work very very much harder than their parents and grandparents, to achieve a similarly decent standard of living.
If they are politically aware, they often have surprisingly flinty attitudes on migration and benefits, for instance.
I do find the younger people (as I am now 30 I am no longer young) tend to be quite a bit harsher on economic issues than most people of my own generation, although it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in party preferences and perceptions of left/right wingedness,
Of course does this mean we're going to get people getting more overtly left wing as they age now?
I'd say the young are more economically right wing, but socially left wing than us.
Should be good for orange book Lib Dems post Brexit.
This is interesting. I rarely post on Facebook, but I posted the other day, in an empathetic way, about Brexit - essentially what I said on here, explaining how I understood how Remainers might feel, therefore I would not gloat.
My 26 year old niece (smart, friendly, hard-working, very likeable) has just replied
"I wish I could be as articulate as you when explaining to my millions of peers why I voted Brexit. Instead I am racist and uneducated. When you're 26 and a brexit and conservative voter, it's best to not speak about politics at all if you still want friends. Our generation are going to grow up to be a bunch of Corbynites. Help"
Basically everyone between 23-33 is like an even wankier version of Alistair Meeks - hard to believe as that is - amplified by social media pressure.
Imagine. A generation of Alistairs Meeks. Millions and millions of shrill, entitled, narcissistic hyprocritical twat faced wankers like Meeks, only even worse.
Tomorrow belongs to me.
I fear it does.... EXCEPT that the generation after the Meeks Generation of Twat Faced Wankers seems to be much more right wing. Or so I have observed. And I've closely encountered a few of these twats, recently.
Music to my ears.
It's the natural swing of the pendulum, exacerbated by financial reality.
The kids under, say, 23, are just bored of all the identity weirdness. Plus they realise that they will have to work very very much harder than their parents and grandparents, to achieve a similarly decent standard of living.
If they are politically aware, they often have surprisingly flinty attitudes on migration and benefits, for instance.
I do find the younger people (as I am now 30 I am no longer young) tend to be quite a bit harsher on economic issues than most people of my own generation, although it doesn't seem to make much of a difference in party preferences and perceptions of left/right wingedness,
Of course does this mean we're going to get people getting more overtly left wing as they age now?
I'd say the young are more economically right wing, but socially left wing than us.
Should be good for orange book Lib Dems post Brexit.
Only to an extent, they still support the NHS etc and are surprisingly conservative on legalisation of drugs
Actually, reading PB atm what with its forensic dissection of what the EU is, is a bit like watching 1977 TOTP. Reassuringly familiar, original at one point in time many moons ago, yet classic examples of the genre.
I think it is perfectly conceivable we could rejoin the EU in 20-30 years time, if it reforms itself in the way it should (properly multi-speed, Single Market for everyone, democratically elected commissioners).
I just doubt its ability to reform. Being-a-bit-shit and non-democratic is in its French DNA. I hope it does reform and we can rejoin the Single Market.
EU Reform....the only reform on the table at the moment is ever closer union....which despite what the EU elite say isn't what huge percentage of France, Italy, Holland, Greece want.
They don't dislike it enough to stop doing it.
The rise of politicians in those countries has gone from weird minor extremist candidates to being in mainstream contesting for power (even if they won't quite make it). That should be warning enough, but it won't be.
Nothing wrong with the concept of a single market, the problem is all the other s##t...and the EU big whigs response is more of the other s##t is required.
So in spite of everything that's happening to Labour under Corbyn they remain the number one party of Londoners. And the one major London newspaper is naturally now edited by George Osborne.
The day Prince Charles tried to halt a war: How the future king phoned the US ambassador to ask for a delay on the Afghan invasion... because he wanted to 'honour' Ramadan
Apologies if this has been posted before this evening, but this is quite a significant poll from Odoxa tonight.
Since their last poll just before the last TV debate:
Melenchon up 5.5 to 16 Fillon down 2 to 17
Shows what a difference that debate made to Melenchon's support and with another TV debate coming up next tuesday, there must be a real chance of Melenchon moving into third spot as the main challenger to Macron and Le Pen by the end of next week.
I wouldn't go overboard on one poll (it's not the latest one) - the overall picture for the runoff looks remarkably stable at 60-40. Macon's been in the 60-65 range vs Le Pen ever since Xmas and the latest polls have him at 63,64,60,63,59,60,60.
As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.
Either Labour will get their act together or a new left wing party will replace it.
But there's no easy answer. In some respects they have to choose between diversity and collectivism, there being no easy answer. They can console themselves with the fact that most other centre left parties are also collapsing in spite of perhaps the most anti-corporate/capitalist mood in modern times. Such is life in 2017.
But we're leaving! The Iib-dems have no chance of ever returning us to the EU. It's over, the ship is sailing I'm afraid...
I agree. And I'm a leaver, so am pleased.
However this is a gambling site, and I bet where I think the odds are good, not on the outcome I hope to see.
Labour's core vote won't turn out, their Muslim vote will go for Galloway, while the Lib Dems will soak up the remainer vote from Labour, wet Tories and the student population, who don't even know they're born yet.
6/1 sounds pretty good to me. Still think Labour will probably win it, but 6/1 is a very good price, now Gorgeous George is involved.
Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.
Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.
And with room to spare, I would think.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.
Either Labour will get their act together or a new left wing party will replace it.
But there's no easy answer. In some respects they have to choose between diversity and collectivism, there being no easy answer. They can console themselves with the fact that most other centre left parties are also collapsing in spite of perhaps the most anti-corporate/capitalist mood in modern times. Such is life in 2017.
Not everywhere, where the centre left has a reasonably charismatic, centrist leader eg Trudeau, Macron they are ahead in the polls, when Labour eventually does the same they have a chance of returning to power
Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.
Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.
And with room to spare, I would think.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.
Apologies if this has been posted before this evening, but this is quite a significant poll from Odoxa tonight.
Since their last poll just before the last TV debate:
Melenchon up 5.5 to 16 Fillon down 2 to 17
Shows what a difference that debate made to Melenchon's support and with another TV debate coming up next tuesday, there must be a real chance of Melenchon moving into third spot as the main challenger to Macron and Le Pen by the end of next week.
I wouldn't go overboard on one poll (it's not the latest one) - the overall picture for the runoff looks remarkably stable at 60-40. Macon's been in the 60-65 range vs Le Pen ever since Xmas and the latest polls have him at 63,64,60,63,59,60,60.
Fillon is clearly sliding and I predicted last week that Melanchon could overtake him. But I agree it's hard to see him getting into the last two.
Given the tendency in almost all recent elections for the main centre right party/candidate to outperform the polls I think Fillon will comfortably hold third place in the end though I agree he will still fail to make the runoff which will almost certainly be Macron v Le Pen now
Why are the Scots going to leave, what's changed? Are the opinion polls showing a massive clammering for Independence?
If you have to ask what's changed then you are stumbling in the dark. The inexorable logic of Brexit is that Scotland has no other real choice.
Why are they going to stay?
Because the UK single market - of which they have been members for over 300 years - is worth more than four times as much to them as the EU single market?
So even purely on a transactional basis there isn't really much of a choice.....
Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.
Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.
And with room to spare, I would think.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.
Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.
Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.
And with room to spare, I would think.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.
Remainer time scales are completely Alice through the Looking Glass. "Oh look, the most important plebiscite of our lifetimes, let's await the result before deciding whether to campaign or not." "Oh look, we are 48 hours into a process guaranteed to last for two years, the time for a conclusive judgment on the end result of the process is well overdue."
Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.
Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.
And with room to spare, I would think.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.
Bad Al is their editor at large.....
Pravda - Celebrating all that's good about the USSR!
Indeed. With any such changes, I always ask, was the original gender/race/whatever truly integral to the character? I'm not a huge Who fan, but I have never gotten the impression that, although he has always been a man, being a man was core to the character in the same way, perhaps, that it is for Bond for example.
I want him to mutate into River Song. That would rock the show
Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.
Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.
And with room to spare, I would think.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.
Remainer time scales are completely Alice through the Looking Glass. "Oh look, the most important plebiscite of our lifetimes, let's await the result before deciding whether to campaign or not." "Oh look, we are 48 hours into a process guaranteed to last for two years, the time for a conclusive judgment on the end result of the process is well overdue."
But it does address the key issues voters worry about:
Michelin restaurants in Britain: How will Brexit impact UK fine dining?
Not a default. Not even anticipatory breach. "We haven’t left the European Union yet, let’s wait to see," as Gove is quoted as saying in the article.
Government health spending is already over £140bn so a few years of standard increases will mean that extra spending is achieved.
And with room to spare, I would think.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
Has anyone on here tried the New European newspaper? I've seen it around and their blurb says something like Celebrating all that's best about the EU - haven't bought it as I don't want to put money into their coffers, but it seems a pity that the celebration didn't happen before the referendum.
Remainer time scales are completely Alice through the Looking Glass. "Oh look, the most important plebiscite of our lifetimes, let's await the result before deciding whether to campaign or not." "Oh look, we are 48 hours into a process guaranteed to last for two years, the time for a conclusive judgment on the end result of the process is well overdue."
But it does address the key issues voters worry about:
Michelin restaurants in Britain: How will Brexit impact UK fine dining?
As bad as it is, the most downbeat of the pessimists will look very silly once they suddenly revive.
Either Labour will get their act together or a new left wing party will replace it.
But there's no easy answer. In some respects they have to choose between diversity and collectivism, there being no easy answer. They can console themselves with the fact that most other centre left parties are also collapsing in spite of perhaps the most anti-corporate/capitalist mood in modern times. Such is life in 2017.
Not everywhere, where the centre left has a reasonably charismatic, centrist leader eg Trudeau, Macron they are ahead in the polls, when Labour eventually does the same they have a chance of returning to power
Agree. Think the centre left is collapsing everywhere idea is over-played. Clinton won a tad under 50%, the Australian Labor Party out-performed its polling (and just won big in WA), the SPD is competitive in Germany as they are in Italy. The sheer incompetence of Corbyn tends to obscure this.
Comments
That looks like precedent setting for other 'independent' regions to me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-is-good-samaritan-who-helps-the-weak-says-lord-carey-rph0cpzsk
Why are they going to stay?
Unless
It is Betfair political exchange
I think it unlikely that the LibDems would win any of the seats listed here - the Tory and Labour MPs under threat would be likely to benefit from first term incumbency.Likewise four of the five projected Tory gains from Labour would face the problem of incumbents enjoying the same bonus.
The further Brexit proceeds, the more politically alienating it will be. If you're handcuffed to someone running towards a cliff-edge you have to free yourself somehow.
All that matters is the Lib Dems are pro Europe and Labour is seen as inert on the issue under Corbyn. I backed the Lib Dems at 6/1 when I heard Galloway was standing. Genuinely think they could come through the middle.
https://twitter.com/peta/status/847832116322639872
The polls etc literally don't matter.
I'd put them sub 20 in SW, SE and Scotland
20-25 E Mids, W Mids, East England
30-33 Wales, Y and H
34-38 NE, NW, London
I don't think they would hit 40 in any GB region.
The greatest Whovian debate that turns passionate is 'can the Doctor regenerate into a woman'
It's like a Brexit debate on speed.
If you had no opinion you wouldn't have mentioned them at all.
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
Oh dear God...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29Mg6Gfh9Co
I certainly feel sympathy for that generation and younger as they've really been shafted on housing, pensions, student debt for worthless degrees and being told that the future was theirs only to discover a harder reality.
But I suspect this is hitting those who moved to London, expecting to live the dream, the hardest.
Since their last poll just before the last TV debate:
Melenchon up 5.5 to 16
Fillon down 2 to 17
Shows what a difference that debate made to Melenchon's support and with another TV debate coming up next tuesday, there must be a real chance of Melenchon moving into third spot as the main challenger to Macron and Le Pen by the end of next week.
http://www.odoxa.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Intention-de-vote-presidentielle-Dentsu-Consulting-LePoint-31-03-17.pdf
More than a decade of Messiah Blair, Brown and his thugs, the Potemkin Princes and now Corbyn and co can have long term effects.
With all of time & space at the writers' disposal it seems a bit parochial to insist that Dr Who is played by an earthing, never mind a Brit.
After all the idea that Labour under him were not an incoherent rabble is definitely a step in his rehabilitation given he fared worse than Major in 1997.
Absolutely fantastic.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/847919419196145665
Of course does this mean we're going to get people getting more overtly left wing as they age now?
http://www.odoxa.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Intention-de-vote-presidentielle-Dentsu-Consulting-LePoint-31-03-17.pdf
Might take us leaving for it to become more like what we wished it would be. Or it could go even further in the other direction.
Get in.
Should be good for orange book Lib Dems post Brexit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdG57lgHFaA
Nothing wrong with the concept of a single market, the problem is all the other s##t...and the EU big whigs response is more of the other s##t is required.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexiteers-condemned-for-not-backing-350m-nhs-amendment-to-eu-withdrawal-bill-a7570336.html?amp
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4369730/The-day-Prince-Charles-tried-halt-war.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Fillon is clearly sliding and I predicted last week that Melanchon could overtake him. But I agree it's hard to see him getting into the last two.
However this is a gambling site, and I bet where I think the odds are good, not on the outcome I hope to see.
Labour's core vote won't turn out, their Muslim vote will go for Galloway, while the Lib Dems will soak up the remainer vote from Labour, wet Tories and the student population, who don't even know they're born yet.
6/1 sounds pretty good to me. Still think Labour will probably win it, but 6/1 is a very good price, now Gorgeous George is involved.
And the message that's reaching me is: "Hey guys, the strongest argument our opponents could come up with was this ludicrous and risibly transparent hogwash about extra money for the NHS, and we still managed to lose! Go us!" Not sure if that is the intention.
So even purely on a transactional basis there isn't really much of a choice.....
Michelin restaurants in Britain: How will Brexit impact UK fine dining?
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/culture/michelin_restaurants_in_britain_how_will_brexit_impact_uk_fine_dining_1_4839214