politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchest
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the trend in today’s London poll was replicated in Manchester Gorton then LAB might struggle
Today’s main polling news has been a London poll by YouGov for Queen Mary University where Professor Phil Cowley is one of the leading politics dons. He created the above charts. The main figures with changes on April last year were:-
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4365116/amp/Scientist-predicts-Marine-Le-Pen-win-French-election.html
If Labour don't have at least a 10% majority I'll eat my hat.
That said, maybe it could be useful - the shrieking of the press and whining backbenchers on both sides could potentially be used to demonstrate how much wiggle room they have, and thus nudge the other party to be more accommodating. But that's a long shot.
Labour's position isn't so parlous as for us to expect that they would lose seats this safe in a General Election, but by-elections are a very different beast, of course. And if the yellows can pull this one out of their magic hat, Richmond Park would surely pale in comparison?
How much longer can the elastic of reality be stretched before it snaps back and a new political landscape form? Brexit is failing already, the words of nefarious Johnson and his ilk about the ease of exiting the EU on good terms are floundering. Yet, Corbyn cannot even expose the vacuum the government has created, never mind pressure it into a more acceptable outcome.
The people wanted their country back, shame nobody thought about the underwhelming non-entities that would represent them in the exit negotiations. I despair.
Whereas the pattern in national polls suggests that Labour's doing badly nationally among working class voters.
Now if Labour is losing middle class voters in the urban areas but working class voters in the industrial areas that might be an optimum pain scenario for Labour.
2010: Lab 50 LD 33
2015: Lab 67 LD 4
Labour won by 17 at peak-Clegg. The London poll has the LDs well adrift of where they were at peak-Clegg.
Corbyn can't lose this one, surely? Labour held Stoke which was far more contestable.
Labour held that comfortably despite a dire candidate and this will go the same way. Quite likely Galloway and Lib Dems will split the protest vote anyway. 1.2 seems an insanely good price for Labour to hold. In a general election you wouldn't be able to back them at 1.01. Can't see they're 20 times less likely to win now.
Successful negotiation, Britain prospers
Successful negotiation, Britain struggles
Hostile negotiation, Britain prospers
Hostile negotiation, Britain struggles
(Not these outcomes are dependent upon public perception as much as reality)
The only scenario where I can see any support for re-joining the EU is the second ie if the EU is seen to be co-operative and Brexit is subsequently seen as a failure.
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/847798535554727938
2010: Lab 50 LD 33
2015: Lab 67 LD 4
Labour won by 17 at peak-Clegg. The London poll has the LDs well adrift of where they were at peak-Clegg.
Corbyn can't lose this one, surely? Labour held Stoke which was far more contestable.
GG could also make hay with the fact that the Lib-Dems tripled tuition fees and propped up the coalition.
Alas, the electorate are fickle and could have more contemporary issues on their minds, Brexit or more particularly how 'hard' it'll be. But the fact is we are leaving the EU, It's done and dusted and the Lib-Dems will soon find out that they are flogging a dead horse...
Also in Stoke UKIP were the challengers and they have a less than inspiring record, leaving aside defections.
Always remember, the only reason they're trolling is because they got the referendum so wrong and are doubling down
That's why Britain kept losing in the EU.
I've just had a warning that a spam block was activated because I had apparently posed 5 comments within 60 seconds.
Which I hadn't.
Would you let me know if some problem is happening.
Difficult to see what the Spaniards hope to gain here. Excluding Gibraltar from a FTA?
It looks like desperate stuff from them.
The Lib Dems have finite resources and would probably be best served concentrating on more realistic targets at a GE.
Hopefully the savings rate will increase which will put further downward pressure on the current account deficit (as well as being a good thing in its own right).
I wonder if that's meant for consumption in regions elsewhere in both the UK and Spain?
It is difficult to predict how each of the different areas might vote, but I would be shocked if the LDs win, as only certain segments of the population are likely to support them. Only Rusholme and Fallowfield wards have similarities with the Withington constituency, which was LD-held from 2005-2015.
http://theboatraces.org/compare-mens-blue-boat/2017/bow
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_31-03-2017.pdf
Anyway, that's a great site thanks. Although why are those lions, those kings amongst men, citizens of the world's greatest city, wearing light green instead of light blue?
In purely pragmatic terms the idea they would go to bat for Spain to the point of forcing us to take a hit on this issue, an issue politically impossible for us to bend on, is simply not the EU I recognise, with its love of fudged solutions and conflict avoidance.
As an aside, it seems to me the EU are slowly coming to realise they have made a fundamental error with their approach to the Brexit negotiations.
All the arguments in the UK have been around how terrible it would be for trade if we did not get an agreement at the end of the two years. Now if the EU got their way as they originally planned and trade were excluded from the two year period and it only concentrated on the issues of Brexit and not on the subsequent trade deal, then there is absolutely no fear for the UK in the talks failing. All that happens is that the UK leaves.
Obviously this will make the subsequent trade talks somewhat fraught but since we would only have taken this option if the EU were making unacceptable demands that would already have been the case. Separating the issues of Brexit from the trade talks actually helps the UK as on the issues of Brexit (excluding trade) there really isn't anything the EU can threaten us with.
When Hugh Laurie took part he was only 20 and every single rower in that year was lighter than the average for this year:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boat_Race_1980
https://twitter.com/gaytimesmag/status/847873672950013957
But a light blue moving over to the dark side? Never has it been so deserved:
TRAITOR!
I just have an inkling that Gibraltar will prioritise being British ( or more precisely not Spanish) over the EU.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eton_blue
I could swear the light blues have been a little more blue in the past. Or is that just a false memory?
Oddly, our family have no connections with either Cambridge or Oxford, yet we all always supported Cambridge. And that's where I've ended up. I'll have to ask my dad why he always chose them instead of the simpletons.
What else will they do to earn treats, once they realise specific actions will lead to it?
Dogs have masters.
Cats have staff.
As for being a relic, that may be so, what of it? Spain has no legitimate claim on it and the people are happy to stay in the UK (unless for 50% of them leaving the EU is so traumatic they are suddenly happy to go Spanish) so it is what it is. As citizens their rights are our responsibility too.
What's the real reason that they have felt the need to stress that it has no automatic right to share a UK/EU trade deal, that it needs co-authorisation from both parties for future inclusion and that the EU overall will not intervene or mediate?
Lab -5%
Con -1%
LD +6%
UKIP +1%
Greens nc
8 seats would change hands:
Bermondsey: LD gain from Lab
Brentford: Con gain from Lab
Ealing Central: Con gain from Lab
Enfield North: Con gain from Lab
Hampstead: Con gain from Lab
Ilford North: Con gain from Lab
Kingston: LD gain from Con
Twickenham: LD gain from Con
Con +3 seats
Lab -6 seats
LD +3 seats
Yeah. Bloody immigrants, eh?