politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to Article 50 day as the UK steps into the unknown

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

JosiasJessop said:

Gallowgate said:

I think this day says a lot about us as a democracy. It isn't what the establishment wanted at all, yet here we are. Something to be proud of.

Charles is as establishment as it gets, and he wanted it.

Quite, the 'old' establishment is dead keen on it.

There are rival elites. The elite that dominated politics from about 1990-2015 (Blairite/Cameroon/London -based/internationalist) was beaten, no two ways about it. But, Charles' type of elite is different, more rural, old money, traditionalist Conservative. They'll be very happy with the outcome of the vote.

A return to managed decline.

Nope. Managed decline is what Blair and the Cameroons perpetuated. I have far more faith in the future of our country now than I have ever had in the past. And people like Charles who you apparently scorn have far more attachment to, and care for, the country than the career politicians we have had running and ruining things for the couple of decades.

Sorry to say this, but that's rubbish on so many levels. It's simply a rewording of the stupid idea that people I agree with must be patriots, and those I disagree with traitors.

Nope those are entirely your words not mine. Blair and Cameron shared a vision of this country and its place in the world that is not mine. Much of that has little to do with the EU issue and far more to do with the apparent pressing need to drop bombs on innocent people. They did a vast amount of damage to both the reputation and the prospects for this country and along with Brown are strong candidates for the worst PMs in history. That does not make them Traitors at all, simply deluded and dangerous individuals who were more interested in the interests of their international friends in high places than the wellbeing of their own people (or the people of many other countries either judging by how many they managed to ruin).

What a load of nonsense.

On a simlar point: *you* were a UKIP supporter for as long as it took to get the Brexit vote. Look at many of the people *you* sided with and their views; things you have often since repudiated.

Deluded and dangerous indeed. Yet they served a purpose ...

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

‪This should be fun. ‬

https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb/status/846980532655341569

A good test of his skills, this must be no softball interview. Supporter or not, of whatever srentpgth, of the path we are on, hard and serious conversation is needed at ll levels.

He will be licking butt for certain

Theuniondivvie said:

TOPPING said:

On topic

Has anyone read Riddle of the Sands? I am a third of the way through it and need some encouragement to push on.

Off topic

Just as we do with a Labour government, we'll manage with Brexit although I fear for those who aren't scions of banking dynasties, well paid authors, or on six figure salaries.

I gave up after less than a third.
That's not helping much, is it?

My kindle says 32% so I am there or thereabouts...

Tissue_Price said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fat_Steve said:

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

So, here we are, a day I never expected to happen when the Referendum was called, but we can celebrate the democratic will of the people of the United Kingdom being implemented. A democratic will that could so easily have been subsumed into the grotesque, bloated undemocratic European "Project" that none of us had voted to sign up to.

Well done, people. And it may prove awkward, and troubling, and worrying, and yes, maybe even a little bit scary. But at least the right to Kick The Buggers Out burns brightly on our little islands, a light that many on the mainland in Europe will come to look upon with envious eyes in the decades to come.

An issue is that for the less sane leavers "Kick The Buggers Out" is meant literally.

Instead, I'd prefer to say: "All welcome if you can contribute."

I think he means governmental buggers rather than immigrant buggers

Perhaps. But he hasn't kicked 'them' out, has he? Cameron and Osborne have gone, but the rest of the government are pretty much as they are before June last year. And it's not as if the civil service has changed.

It's an utterly ridiculous way to talk, and quite a dangerous one.

The rest of the government may have many of the same faces, but they are certainly not "pretty much as they are before June last year". Mark Wallace puts it well:

Among them were an estimated 2.8 million people who normally do not vote, but recognised the importance of the moment and broke the habits of many years. They had given up faith in voting as a way to change things, but they gave it one more go. Today, many people who had thought themselves powerless will be watching as the most powerful people in the land begin to do as they asked. The power of that moment to convince such people that democracy does work and that their vote does matter should not be underestimated, the opportunity must be taken to keep them engaged, and the responsibility to honour that instruction must not be denied.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/a-truly-historic-moment-today-we-start-the-process-of-leaving-the-eu.html

That seems irrelevant to the point being made.

A unapologetic Remainer speaks:

What a bleak day for Britain. We have just committed economic suicide. History will not be kind.

Mr. Jonathan, strongly disagree that the EU could be reformed. Also, vellum lasts a lot longer than paper, so legibility holds very well. There's therefore less need for maintenance or reproduction of old laws.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

@Ishmael_Z

Your kidding, right? Some of the most ardent PB Leavers live hundreds and thousands of miles away from their supposed beloved Blighty.

rottenborough said:

A unapologetic Remainer speaks:

What a bleak day for Britain. We have just committed economic suicide. History will not be kind.

It’s a brave new world, we do not know the final outcome, but if we all work together we can make it a success. Moaning from the side-lines will achieve nothing.

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Nuts

in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.

Roger said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

Executions and maiming? When are the first tickets for Trafalgar Square going to be put on sale, Roger? Might be some decent advertising business in it for your firm too.

JosiasJessop said:

Tissue_Price said:

JosiasJessop said:

Fat_Steve said:

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

So, here we are, a day I never expected to happen when the Referendum was called, but we can celebrate the democratic will of the people of the United Kingdom being implemented. A democratic will that could so easily have been subsumed into the grotesque, bloated undemocratic European "Project" that none of us had voted to sign up to.

Well done, people. And it may prove awkward, and troubling, and worrying, and yes, maybe even a little bit scary. But at least the right to Kick The Buggers Out burns brightly on our little islands, a light that many on the mainland in Europe will come to look upon with envious eyes in the decades to come.

An issue is that for the less sane leavers "Kick The Buggers Out" is meant literally.

Instead, I'd prefer to say: "All welcome if you can contribute."

I think he means governmental buggers rather than immigrant buggers

Perhaps. But he hasn't kicked 'them' out, has he? Cameron and Osborne have gone, but the rest of the government are pretty much as they are before June last year. And it's not as if the civil service has changed.

It's an utterly ridiculous way to talk, and quite a dangerous one.

The rest of the government may have many of the same faces, but they are certainly not "pretty much as they are before June last year". Mark Wallace puts it well:

Among them were an estimated 2.8 million people who normally do not vote, but recognised the importance of the moment and broke the habits of many years. They had given up faith in voting as a way to change things, but they gave it one more go. Today, many people who had thought themselves powerless will be watching as the most powerful people in the land begin to do as they asked. The power of that moment to convince such people that democracy does work and that their vote does matter should not be underestimated, the opportunity must be taken to keep them engaged, and the responsibility to honour that instruction must not be denied.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/a-truly-historic-moment-today-we-start-the-process-of-leaving-the-eu.html

That seems irrelevant to the point being made.

Really? @MarqueeMark's original point was about the democratic will of the people. Kicking an entire philosophy out [in theory; in practice there will of course be compromise] is a bigger win than kicking out individual politicians or indeed parties.

Johnny Rotten praises Brexit, Trump and Garage
https://mobile.twitter.com/JaydaBF/status/846648137011769344

I see May has subjected herself to an Andrew Neal grilling. Well, I'll give her points for sheer guts. She will need to spend the rest of today prepping.

HYUFD said:

Hammond confirms we cannot 'have our cake and eat it'
https://mobile.twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/846990895685742592

You'd think he'd still be keeping his head down after that fiasco with the budget...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.

Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.

There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.

Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.

My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27

Alanbrooke said:

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Nuts

in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.

Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.

YouGov/Times:

CON 43 (+2)
LAB 25 (=)
LD 11 (=)
UKIP 10 (-2)
OTH 10 (-1)

26th-27th Mar
N=1,957
Writeup https://t.co/pmtNmFMQHq

I think this is pretty much terminal for Labour now

John_M said:

Good morning all.

All things are possible in a democracy.

Die hard Remainers can console themselves with the prospect of a future Labour administration (or Lab/LD coalition) reapplying under article 49. Demographics are on Remain's side (yes, I know how people drift as they age, but bear with me). Brexit could be a short-lived interregnum rather than an irrevocable split. Courage.

My own experience tells me that this is just another change in a life of changes. In my lifetime inflation has hit ~25%, interest rates ~15%. Been through three recessions and the .com bust. Some have affected me badly, others not at all. My personal happiness has never been correlated with the country's economic performance. I see no reason why it should in the future.

Ultimately, very few people will be totally happy with whatever flavour of Brexit we achieve. Life will go on. It's still the best time to be alive in all of human history. We live like gods compared to our ancestors.

At most I can see a future Labour government taking us back into the EEA but I don't think we will ever return to the full EU now

Roger said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

Most of those values are enshrined in the ECHR which - as we never tire of mentioning on here - is nothing to do with the EU. I hadn't realised that Norway, for example, was such a vile place flouting all those international conventions and torturing people with wanton joy just because it is not in the EU.

HYUFD said:

Johnny Rotten praises Brexit, Trump and Garage
https://mobile.twitter.com/JaydaBF/status/846648137011769344

Rotten's a Garage fan? What're his thoughts on Grime & Jungle?

John_M said:

Good morning all.

All things are possible in a democracy.

Die hard Remainers can console themselves with the prospect of a future Labour administration (or Lab/LD coalition) reapplying under article 49. Demographics are on Remain's side (yes, I know how people drift as they age, but bear with me). Brexit could be a short-lived interregnum rather than an irrevocable split. Courage.

My own experience tells me that this is just another change in a life of changes. In my lifetime inflation has hit ~25%, interest rates ~15%. Been through three recessions and the .com bust. Some have affected me badly, others not at all. My personal happiness has never been correlated with the country's economic performance. I see no reason why it should in the future.

Ultimately, very few people will be totally happy with whatever flavour of Brexit we achieve. Life will go on. It's still the best time to be alive in all of human history. We live like gods compared to our ancestors.

About the sanest comment I've ever read on here.

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/846999918619308032

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Nuts

in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.

Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?

If you dont think fighting WW2 was a good thing you are beyond help.

Razedabode said:

YouGov/Times:

CON 43 (+2)
LAB 25 (=)
LD 11 (=)
UKIP 10 (-2)
OTH 10 (-1)

26th-27th Mar
N=1,957
Writeup https://t.co/pmtNmFMQHq

I think this is pretty much terminal for Labour now

Sadly not the case until a party emerges to replace them.

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Nuts

in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.

Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?

If the alternative was not fighting them under the circumstances then yes.

Jez is crap

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/847000151675883521

Ishmael_Z said:

TOPPING said:

@Ishmael_Z

Your kidding, right? Some of the most ardent PB Leavers live hundreds and thousands of miles away from their supposed beloved Blighty.

If these people sat and posted how the inhabitants of their adopted countries were a lot of stupid, ghastly, intolerant pigs, you would have at least the beginnings of a tit for tat point there.

They don't.

No they don't. Yet they are so keen for the UK to be a strong, pure, independent country, free from both the influence of foreign countries, and from the wrong type of foreigners, that they fuck off and live abroad.

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/846999918619308032

If Corbyn has managed to muscle in on a media event that May was supposed to be May's show then it's quite a coup for him...

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Westminster and Whitehall largely work though. Sure, there are some anachronisms - though often they have more purpose than they might appear to have on an initial viewing - but parliament can be and has been reformed.

I'm sorry to say that your comment reads like you dislike Britain, dislike its history and want to do away with as much of both as possible.

Sadly, the EU proved itself to be unwilling to even consider proper reform and in the past, when it has stumbled upon the idea of proper reform, it's quickly picked itself up and carried on in the hope that no-one had noticed. The negotiations with Cameron were a classic case in point. They began with him laying out a very sensible plan for the reform of the Union as a whole, one which would have benefited it and which, if carried out, would almost certainly have resulted in a Remain vote because it would have shot various Leave foxes directly and would have put others on notice that reform could be achieved. The EU rejected that sort of thinking outright and instead engaged in a sullen appeasement policy which ultimately delivered so little that it hardly featured at all in the referendum campaign and to the extent that it did, it was as useful to Leave as to Remain.

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Johnny Rotten praises Brexit, Trump and Garage
https://mobile.twitter.com/JaydaBF/status/846648137011769344

Rotten's a Garage fan? What're his thoughts on Grime & Jungle?

Sorry predictive text clearly equates Farage and Garage

Richard_Tyndall said:

rural_voter said:

williamglenn said:

Jonathan said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

JosiasJessop said:

Gallowgate said:

I think this day says a lot about us as a democracy. It isn't what the establishment wanted at all, yet here we are. Something to be proud of.

Charles is as establishment as it gets, and he wanted it.

Quite, the 'old' establishment is dead keen on it.

There are rival elites. The elite that dominated politics from about 1990-2015 (Blairite/Cameroon/London -based/internationalist) was beaten, no two ways about it. But, Charles' type of elite is different, more rural, old money, traditionalist Conservative. They'll be very happy with the outcome of the vote.

A return to managed decline.

I think it's more like creative destruction. The problem is that no-one yet knows what exactly we're destroying.

In the words of Sir Richard Mottram, although I'd replace 'department' by 'country':

'We're all f****d. I'm f****d. You're f****d. The whole department is f****d. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely f****d.'

(The sentence takes a long time to insert the asterisks but I know some people are a bit sensitive to expletives.)

Interesting you should interchange the words "department" and "country" because of course that is very much what Ken Clarke and other Eurofanatics like williamglenn would like to see.

Clarke's quote was: "I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe"

Thankfully that day will now not come and Clarke can go to his grave knowing his life's work is in ruins.

Having voted No in 1975, I was turned into a Euro federalist alonside Messrs Clarke, Heseltine and Livingstone (quite a range!) by 40 years of indifferent govt. from Whitehall, often with the executive using a parliamentary majority of 100-150 to sidestep debate. Without an EU directive forcing us to legislate on water quality- that was 1989 I think - the odds are roughly evens that we'd still be bathing in raw sewage.

A distant analogy is the positive influence of US federal govt. legislation on the most reactionary states.

williamglenn said:

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/846999918619308032

If Corbyn has managed to muscle in on a media event that May was supposed to be May's show then it's quite a coup for him...

Corbyn will be shredded

Tissue_Price said:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/846999918619308032

Corbyn as well? Now I can understand why May consented to it.

Alanbrooke said:

Jonathan said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Nuts

in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.

Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?

If you dont think fighting WW2 was a good thing you are beyond help.

There is definitely a strain a thought amongst some, that WW2 was simply a falling out between Germany and the rest of Europe. We can argue about 1919 and what followed, but you have to be pretty blind to not see the Germans as being in the wrong in WW2!

Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB
New YouGov Times poll finds that more GE2015 LAB voters would choose TMau over Corbyn to lead the country. That's serious.

dr_spyn said:

Corbyn still paddling up shit creek.

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/846998647489335296

Tories up 6% since the last general election, Labour down 5%, UKIP down 3% and the LDs up 3%, for the moment at least it is the LDs who are making the most progress against May's government and the polls now starting to reflect the local and parliamentary by elections on that front

Alanbrooke said:

rottenborough said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Nuts

in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.

Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.

guff

you have no idea how things will pan out. Nobody does.

I can however note that nearly one year on the sirens of doom have so far failed to deliver on their national schadenfreudefest.

Growth - up
Employment - up
Investment - up

what have you got left in your grim locker of misery ?

Based on the IFS report, the really pernicious effects are going to be medium-term and hard to discern. We're currently far and away the most favoured nation for FDI in Europe.

The exam question is simply, to what extent is that investment based on our membership of the Single Market? Or, more properly, does the delta between what we have now in terms of SM membership and what May will achieve substantially affect investment decisions? At present, that's not a question we can answer.

I expect Brexit to exacerbate the next recession, which will come - they're inevitable. However, I think @Topping is closest to my views; it's growth forgone, opportunities lost (and therefore intangible), investments forfeited. Most people won't notice. But I wouldn't like to be working in the automotive sector or agriculture, to name but two.

I was stunned when the referendum postal ballot paper dropped through the door, so stunned that I didn't complain to the press immediately.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36411509#

Off-topic:

We have a German friend visiting this weekend, so I've removed a book about the Somme from its current abode beside the spare bed.

Just doing my bit for European harmony.

MaxPB said:

Roger said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

Executions and maiming? When are the first tickets for Trafalgar Square going to be put on sale, Roger? Might be some decent advertising business in it for your firm too.

Its the knowledge that whatever happens in the rest of the world among our club the rules are absolute.

If you want it in advertising terms think American Express " It says more about you than cash ever can'

John_M said:

But I wouldn't like to be working in the automotive sector or agriculture, to name but two.

If you work in the automotive sector the big problem heading your way is electric car upstarts doing to you industry what the iPhone did to the likes of Nokia, Motorola, and Ericsson. I would spend a hundred times more effort on that rather than worrying about single market membership.

John_M said:

Alanbrooke said:

rottenborough said:

Alanbrooke said:

Jonathan said:

After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

Nuts

in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.

Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.

guff

you have no idea how things will pan out. Nobody does.

I can however note that nearly one year on the sirens of doom have so far failed to deliver on their national schadenfreudefest.

Growth - up
Employment - up
Investment - up

what have you got left in your grim locker of misery ?

Based on the IFS report, the really pernicious effects are going to be medium-term and hard to discern. We're currently far and away the most favoured nation for FDI in Europe.

The exam question is simply, to what extent is that investment based on our membership of the Single Market? Or, more properly, does the delta between what we have now in terms of SM membership and what May will achieve substantially affect investment decisions? At present, that's not a question we can answer.

I expect Brexit to exacerbate the next recession, which will come - they're inevitable. However, I think @Topping is closest to my views; it's growth forgone, opportunities lost (and therefore intangible), investments forfeited. Most people won't notice. But I wouldn't like to be working in the automotive sector or agriculture, to name but two.

As ever it's the shifting sands of remainerdom

we go from fall off a cliff tomorrow, to it's 2 years out, to whatever you fancy next.

the problem with your view is it assumes we only ever have one path and everything follows from it.

The biggest issue we will face in the next 3 years will be an "event" which today none of us are predicting and which will put all the Brexit guff on the back burner..

As Mrs McTurnip calls for another referendum:

OA (Scotland)
Thinking about the four or five biggest policy decisions that Parliament considers each year, which of these views comes closer to yours?

'The best way to make such decisions is for MPs to consider them in detail and for the majority view in Parliament to determine what happens' : 50 (55)

The best way to make such decisions is for Parliament to hold a referendum and for the majority view among voters to determine what happens' 30 (32)

Don't know 20 (13)

JosiasJessop said:

chestnut said:

An interesting one - Britain turns against referendums

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uz74q2bmzg/InternalResults_170317_Referendums_W.pdf

It reads as though as losers don't like them because they lost, while winners are fed up with losers constantly trying to delegitimise them.

Hmmm. I was on the winning side in the AV referendum, and supported the winning side in the Scottish indy ref. I was on the losing side of the Brexit ref, although not unhappily so.

All in all, I'd say I still like referendums. In the three cases above, a referendum still seems to have been the right thing to do.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

Pulpstar said:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

So - what will be the deepest Tory gain, and shallowest Tory loss in 2020.

Tories gain Newport East.