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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to Article 50 day as the UK steps into the unknown

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think this day says a lot about us as a democracy. It isn't what the establishment wanted at all, yet here we are. Something to be proud of.

    Charles is as establishment as it gets, and he wanted it. ;)
    Quite, the 'old' establishment is dead keen on it.
    There are rival elites. The elite that dominated politics from about 1990-2015 (Blairite/Cameroon/London -based/internationalist) was beaten, no two ways about it. But, Charles' type of elite is different, more rural, old money, traditionalist Conservative. They'll be very happy with the outcome of the vote.
    A return to managed decline.
    Nope. Managed decline is what Blair and the Cameroons perpetuated. I have far more faith in the future of our country now than I have ever had in the past. And people like Charles who you apparently scorn have far more attachment to, and care for, the country than the career politicians we have had running and ruining things for the couple of decades.
    Sorry to say this, but that's rubbish on so many levels. It's simply a rewording of the stupid idea that people I agree with must be patriots, and those I disagree with traitors.
    Nope those are entirely your words not mine. Blair and Cameron shared a vision of this country and its place in the world that is not mine. Much of that has little to do with the EU issue and far more to do with the apparent pressing need to drop bombs on innocent people. They did a vast amount of damage to both the reputation and the prospects for this country and along with Brown are strong candidates for the worst PMs in history. That does not make them Traitors at all, simply deluded and dangerous individuals who were more interested in the interests of their international friends in high places than the wellbeing of their own people (or the people of many other countries either judging by how many they managed to ruin).
    What a load of nonsense.

    On a simlar point: *you* were a UKIP supporter for as long as it took to get the Brexit vote. Look at many of the people *you* sided with and their views; things you have often since repudiated.

    Deluded and dangerous indeed. Yet they served a purpose ...
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,844

    Good RE-MOANING!

    I brung you a massage:

    The Proom Monister has truggered Broxit. Meek Smithson isn't very hippy!

    #PullThePlugWednesday
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    kle4 said:

    A good test of his skills, this must be no softball interview. Supporter or not, of whatever srentpgth, of the path we are on, hard and serious conversation is needed at ll levels.
    He will be licking butt for certain
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited March 2017
    Good morning all.

    All things are possible in a democracy.

    Die hard Remainers can console themselves with the prospect of a future Labour administration (or Lab/LD coalition) reapplying under article 49. Demographics are on Remain's side (yes, I know how people drift as they age, but bear with me). Brexit could be a short-lived interregnum rather than an irrevocable split. Courage.

    My own experience tells me that this is just another change in a life of changes. In my lifetime inflation has hit ~25%, interest rates ~15%. Been through three recessions and the .com bust. Some have affected me badly, others not at all. My personal happiness has never been correlated with the country's economic performance. I see no reason why it should in the future.

    Ultimately, very few people will be totally happy with whatever flavour of Brexit we achieve. Life will go on. It's still the best time to be alive in all of human history. We live like gods compared to our ancestors.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    Has anyone read Riddle of the Sands? I am a third of the way through it and need some encouragement to push on.

    Off topic

    Just as we do with a Labour government, we'll manage with Brexit although I fear for those who aren't scions of banking dynasties, well paid authors, or on six figure salaries.

    I gave up after less than a third.
    That's not helping much, is it?
    My kindle says 32% so I am there or thereabouts...
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,758
    edited March 2017

    Well, we have 730 days to sort out the mess that the vote has left us. And it is not, as some claim, just up to leavers; it is up to all of us, whether we voted leave, remain, or just stayed at home.

    Remainers throwing their/our toys out of the pram will not help the UK succeed; likewise leavers sitting back and slapping themselves on the back. Our country has chosen a slightly harder course, and one where the rewards and hazards are greater. We all need to make it work.

    And congratulations to all the hardcore leavers; I hope the saner amongst you get what you want.

    I endorse the sentiment. It won't however be "sorted out" in a short period of time. Instead a messy compromise will develop, probably over several years, that no-one is really happy with, but most can accept, not least because they want to move on.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    Fat_Steve said:

    So, here we are, a day I never expected to happen when the Referendum was called, but we can celebrate the democratic will of the people of the United Kingdom being implemented. A democratic will that could so easily have been subsumed into the grotesque, bloated undemocratic European "Project" that none of us had voted to sign up to.

    Well done, people. And it may prove awkward, and troubling, and worrying, and yes, maybe even a little bit scary. But at least the right to Kick The Buggers Out burns brightly on our little islands, a light that many on the mainland in Europe will come to look upon with envious eyes in the decades to come.

    An issue is that for the less sane leavers "Kick The Buggers Out" is meant literally.

    Instead, I'd prefer to say: "All welcome if you can contribute."
    I think he means governmental buggers rather than immigrant buggers
    Perhaps. But he hasn't kicked 'them' out, has he? Cameron and Osborne have gone, but the rest of the government are pretty much as they are before June last year. And it's not as if the civil service has changed.

    It's an utterly ridiculous way to talk, and quite a dangerous one.
    The rest of the government may have many of the same faces, but they are certainly not "pretty much as they are before June last year". Mark Wallace puts it well:

    Among them were an estimated 2.8 million people who normally do not vote, but recognised the importance of the moment and broke the habits of many years. They had given up faith in voting as a way to change things, but they gave it one more go. Today, many people who had thought themselves powerless will be watching as the most powerful people in the land begin to do as they asked. The power of that moment to convince such people that democracy does work and that their vote does matter should not be underestimated, the opportunity must be taken to keep them engaged, and the responsibility to honour that instruction must not be denied.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/a-truly-historic-moment-today-we-start-the-process-of-leaving-the-eu.html
    That seems irrelevant to the point being made.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,844
    edited March 2017
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    A good test of his skills, this must be no softball interview. Supporter or not, of whatever srentpgth, of the path we are on, hard and serious conversation is needed at ll levels.
    He will be licking butt for certain
    Morning Macl! :)

    Happy Brexit Day! :smiley:
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    A unapologetic Remainer speaks:

    What a bleak day for Britain. We have just committed economic suicide. History will not be kind.


  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    edited March 2017
    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    Has anyone read Riddle of the Sands? I am a third of the way through it and need some encouragement to push on.

    It doesn't get any better.
    Thank you! It is interesting enough as a period piece but it is also quite tortuous.
    It's considered quite an important book as an early spy novel, a bit like Conrad's The Secret Agent, but it's far too long, and unless you have a deep fascination with the East Frisian Islands it's not entertaining.
    Yes that makes sense (can't remember why it was recommended but that fits). A bit like The Satyricon; seminal, but near-unreadable.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Jonathan, strongly disagree that the EU could be reformed. Also, vellum lasts a lot longer than paper, so legibility holds very well. There's therefore less need for maintenance or reproduction of old laws.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    GIN1138 said:

    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Brexit is underway and in 2 years time I think we end up with fudged Brexit, a work permit/job offer requirement for migrants, some continued EU budget contributions and a few bilateral agreements in key sectors of the economy which May allow for a future FTA. Remoamers, especially the LDs, will still Remoan we are not part of the single market, hardcore Leavers, especially UKIP, will still cry betrayal but most of the country will accept the deal and Brexit will be done

    Yes. something like that.

    Trade - Canada plus
    Services - Equivalence
    Divorce - we'll cut a deal on the budget to 2020, probably using overseas aid money so our "£350m" a week is available for budget 2020.
    Protected Rights for Expats/Migrants - all bar criminals and terrorists
    Migration Policy - in line with our global expectations

    The Tories will abolish VAT on fuel bills and tampons in budget 2020 and dish out the share of the £350m to the devolved assemblies and they will have some 'signature ready' Trade deals done - the GCC, Australia, Canada etc. I suspect the US as well.

    Budget 2020 sounds pretty exciting! :smiley:
    Especially if Corbyn is PM!
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Roger said:

    We are leaving the most civilised and civilising club of 28 unique countries and 500,000,000 people to satisfy the xenophbic desires of some petty nationalists and right wing zealots.

    This is no time for rejoicing.

    You live in the most racist part of the most racist country in the first world, Roger. Les Farage are not a respected 3 generation political dynasty over here. The club also includes delights like Hungary, where the PM's use of shipping containers in a darkly comic homage to Hitler's cattle trucks is so much to Meeks' taste that he sponsors it through indirect taxes. If you can't be arsed to live in tolerant old blighty, don't bitch about it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,444
    Sean_F said:

    I think this day says a lot about us as a democracy. It isn't what the establishment wanted at all, yet here we are. Something to be proud of.

    Charles is as establishment as it gets, and he wanted it. ;)
    Quite, the 'old' establishment is dead keen on it.
    There are rival elites. The elite that dominated politics from about 1990-2015 (Blairite/Cameroon/London -based/internationalist) was beaten, no two ways about it. But, Charles' type of elite is different, more rural, old money, traditionalist Conservative. They'll be very happy with the outcome of the vote.
    Sean_F said:

    I think this day says a lot about us as a democracy. It isn't what the establishment wanted at all, yet here we are. Something to be proud of.

    Charles is as establishment as it gets, and he wanted it. ;)
    Quite, the 'old' establishment is dead keen on it.
    There are rival elites. The elite that dominated politics from about 1990-2015 (Blairite/Cameroon/London -based/internationalist) was beaten, no two ways about it. But, Charles' type of elite is different, more rural, old money, traditionalist Conservative. They'll be very happy with the outcome of the vote.
    I love Charles and his type of elite ;-)
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892

    Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

    It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

    Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

    A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Mr. Jonathan, strongly disagree that the EU could be reformed. Also, vellum lasts a lot longer than paper, so legibility holds very well. There's therefore less need for maintenance or reproduction of old laws.

    All successful organisations use Vellum. My business could not run without it. It's ludicrous.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    @Ishmael_Z

    Your kidding, right? Some of the most ardent PB Leavers live hundreds and thousands of miles away from their supposed beloved Blighty.
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    A unapologetic Remainer speaks:

    What a bleak day for Britain. We have just committed economic suicide. History will not be kind.

    Yet another "Black Wednesday" to add to the list? Maybe "Jingo Day" would be a more memorable name?

    I am not sure about "economic suicide" but I agree we have not done ourselves any favours.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    A unapologetic Remainer speaks:

    What a bleak day for Britain. We have just committed economic suicide. History will not be kind.

    It’s a brave new world, we do not know the final outcome, but if we all work together we can make it a success. Moaning from the side-lines will achieve nothing.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited March 2017
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    A good test of his skills, this must be no softball interview. Supporter or not, of whatever srentpgth, of the path we are on, hard and serious conversation is needed at ll levels.
    He will be licking butt for certain
    Malcolm, after all these years it would be nice to see you broaden your canvas just once from monotonous vulgar idiocy.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    edited March 2017
    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,216
    TOPPING said:

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    glw said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    Has anyone read Riddle of the Sands? I am a third of the way through it and need some encouragement to push on.

    It doesn't get any better.
    Thank you! It is interesting enough as a period piece but it is also quite tortuous.
    It's considered quite an important book as an early spy novel, a bit like Conrad's The Secret Agent, but it's far too long, and unless you have a deep fascination with the East Frisian Islands it's not entertaining.
    Yes that makes sense (can't remember why it was recommended but that fits). A bit like The Satyricon; seminal, but near-unreadable.
    From memory (& a quick swatch at Wiki), it centres around paranoia about German hegemony and fear of invasion.

    So not really relevant to modern times at all.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610
    Roger said:

    Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

    It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

    Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

    A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

    Executions and maiming? When are the first tickets for Trafalgar Square going to be put on sale, Roger? Might be some decent advertising business in it for your firm too.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    Hammond confirms we cannot 'have our cake and eat it'
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/846990895685742592
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2017

    Fat_Steve said:

    So, here we are, a day I never expected to happen when the Referendum was called, but we can celebrate the democratic will of the people of the United Kingdom being implemented. A democratic will that could so easily have been subsumed into the grotesque, bloated undemocratic European "Project" that none of us had voted to sign up to.

    Well done, people. And it may prove awkward, and troubling, and worrying, and yes, maybe even a little bit scary. But at least the right to Kick The Buggers Out burns brightly on our little islands, a light that many on the mainland in Europe will come to look upon with envious eyes in the decades to come.

    An issue is that for the less sane leavers "Kick The Buggers Out" is meant literally.

    Instead, I'd prefer to say: "All welcome if you can contribute."
    I think he means governmental buggers rather than immigrant buggers
    Perhaps. But he hasn't kicked 'them' out, has he? Cameron and Osborne have gone, but the rest of the government are pretty much as they are before June last year. And it's not as if the civil service has changed.

    It's an utterly ridiculous way to talk, and quite a dangerous one.
    The rest of the government may have many of the same faces, but they are certainly not "pretty much as they are before June last year". Mark Wallace puts it well:

    Among them were an estimated 2.8 million people who normally do not vote, but recognised the importance of the moment and broke the habits of many years. They had given up faith in voting as a way to change things, but they gave it one more go. Today, many people who had thought themselves powerless will be watching as the most powerful people in the land begin to do as they asked. The power of that moment to convince such people that democracy does work and that their vote does matter should not be underestimated, the opportunity must be taken to keep them engaged, and the responsibility to honour that instruction must not be denied.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/a-truly-historic-moment-today-we-start-the-process-of-leaving-the-eu.html
    That seems irrelevant to the point being made.
    Really? @MarqueeMark's original point was about the democratic will of the people. Kicking an entire philosophy out [in theory; in practice there will of course be compromise] is a bigger win than kicking out individual politicians or indeed parties.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.

    Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.

    There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.

    Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    Johnny Rotten praises Brexit, Trump and Garage
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JaydaBF/status/846648137011769344
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    A unapologetic Remainer speaks:

    What a bleak day for Britain. We have just committed economic suicide. History will not be kind.

    Yet another "Black Wednesday" to add to the list? Maybe "Jingo Day" would be a more memorable name?

    I am not sure about "economic suicide" but I agree we have not done ourselves any favours.
    Of course 'Black' Wednesday turned out in the medium and long term to be 'White' Wednesday with a much stronger UK economy than if we had remained tied to German interest rates. I would certainly take that as an analogy.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    I see May has subjected herself to an Andrew Neal grilling. Well, I'll give her points for sheer guts. She will need to spend the rest of today prepping.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I see May has subjected herself to an Andrew Neal grilling. Well, I'll give her points for sheer guts. She will need to spend the rest of today prepping.

    This is one brief you'd assume she'd already be on top of!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,844
    HYUFD said:

    Hammond confirms we cannot 'have our cake and eat it'
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/846990895685742592

    You'd think he'd still be keeping his head down after that fiasco with the budget...
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited March 2017

    Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.

    Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.

    There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.

    Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.

    My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mrs C, that would imply you think over half the country hates foreigners :(

    For what it's worth, I think naming the day (or having some sort of independence day) is needless and silly.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Corbyn still paddling up shit creek.

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/846998647489335296

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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977
    YouGov/Times:

    CON 43 (+2)
    LAB 25 (=)
    LD 11 (=)
    UKIP 10 (-2)
    OTH 10 (-1)

    26th-27th Mar
    N=1,957
    Writeup https://t.co/pmtNmFMQHq

    I think this is pretty much terminal for Labour now
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    @Ishmael_Z

    Your kidding, right? Some of the most ardent PB Leavers live hundreds and thousands of miles away from their supposed beloved Blighty.

    If these people sat and posted how the inhabitants of their adopted countries were a lot of stupid, ghastly, intolerant pigs, you would have at least the beginnings of a tit for tat point there.

    They don't.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    All things are possible in a democracy.

    Die hard Remainers can console themselves with the prospect of a future Labour administration (or Lab/LD coalition) reapplying under article 49. Demographics are on Remain's side (yes, I know how people drift as they age, but bear with me). Brexit could be a short-lived interregnum rather than an irrevocable split. Courage.

    My own experience tells me that this is just another change in a life of changes. In my lifetime inflation has hit ~25%, interest rates ~15%. Been through three recessions and the .com bust. Some have affected me badly, others not at all. My personal happiness has never been correlated with the country's economic performance. I see no reason why it should in the future.

    Ultimately, very few people will be totally happy with whatever flavour of Brexit we achieve. Life will go on. It's still the best time to be alive in all of human history. We live like gods compared to our ancestors.

    At most I can see a future Labour government taking us back into the EEA but I don't think we will ever return to the full EU now
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,758
    I am pretty sure the establishment will be more entrenched than ever by Brexit. Three reasons. There's a mess to be sorted out that requires skills, wealth and connections. The "kickers-out" aren't taking ownership of the consequences. The removal of the EU as an alternative locus of power concentrates the power in the hands of the indigenous elite.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    Roger said:

    Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

    It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

    Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

    A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

    Most of those values are enshrined in the ECHR which - as we never tire of mentioning on here - is nothing to do with the EU. I hadn't realised that Norway, for example, was such a vile place flouting all those international conventions and torturing people with wanton joy just because it is not in the EU.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Roger, ah.

    That's an interesting point, but the likes of Germany, Sweden, France, Denmark and Spain will still be there.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,216
    HYUFD said:

    Johnny Rotten praises Brexit, Trump and Garage
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JaydaBF/status/846648137011769344

    Rotten's a Garage fan? What're his thoughts on Grime & Jungle?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    I don't think Brexit needs to or will be that rocky. We will get into the negotiations, a percentage point here, a non-tariff barrier there, who will care? Very few. People will get on with it, and just like a penny on beer and fags at the budget, it will probably not impinge upon too many people. By 2030, of all times, we as a country will not be as rich as we might have been but no one will notice. Per capita the diminution will be even less.

    You can't drop on your foot or make a headline out of £200m not being invested in the UK for one reason or another. Or of the extra £200/year households might not have.

    So I do think we'll be poorer, I do think we'll spend more time doing things that previously we didn't have to, be it customs forms, or other bureaucracy (= more time spent = poorer), but we'll all get on with it and the government will in the meantime have a very useful scapegoat when anything goes wrong for the next 10-20 years.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited March 2017
    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    All things are possible in a democracy.

    Die hard Remainers can console themselves with the prospect of a future Labour administration (or Lab/LD coalition) reapplying under article 49. Demographics are on Remain's side (yes, I know how people drift as they age, but bear with me). Brexit could be a short-lived interregnum rather than an irrevocable split. Courage.

    My own experience tells me that this is just another change in a life of changes. In my lifetime inflation has hit ~25%, interest rates ~15%. Been through three recessions and the .com bust. Some have affected me badly, others not at all. My personal happiness has never been correlated with the country's economic performance. I see no reason why it should in the future.

    Ultimately, very few people will be totally happy with whatever flavour of Brexit we achieve. Life will go on. It's still the best time to be alive in all of human history. We live like gods compared to our ancestors.

    About the sanest comment I've ever read on here.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited March 2017
    Roger said:

    Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

    It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

    Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

    A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/07/-hungary-to-detain-all-asylum-seekers-in-container-camps

    and
    http://www.voice-online.co.uk/article/france-remains-most-racist-country-western-europe

    The second understates the case - "in first world" would be more accurate.

    I'm sure the other 25 are lovely. Just not lovely enough to get off their arses and make a real stand over Hungary.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Abode, I must disagree. UKIP and the Lib Dems are too weak to take advantage of Labour. Inertia will enable them to survive for a long while, probably until Corbyn buggers off. The potential problem (well, another one) for Labour is if he can rewrite the rulebook.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?
    If you dont think fighting WW2 was a good thing you are beyond help.
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    YouGov

    Before the triggering of Article 50, public opinion on Brexit remained evenly split. Forty-four per cent said that Britain had been right to vote to leave, including 5 per cent of those who voted to remain last June, while 43 per cent said that the country was wrong, including 5 per cent of leave voters.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    YouGov/Times:

    CON 43 (+2)
    LAB 25 (=)
    LD 11 (=)
    UKIP 10 (-2)
    OTH 10 (-1)

    26th-27th Mar
    N=1,957
    Writeup https://t.co/pmtNmFMQHq

    I think this is pretty much terminal for Labour now

    Sadly not the case until a party emerges to replace them.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,758
    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    All things are possible in a democracy.

    Die hard Remainers can console themselves with the prospect of a future Labour administration (or Lab/LD coalition) reapplying under article 49. Demographics are on Remain's side (yes, I know how people drift as they age, but bear with me). Brexit could be a short-lived interregnum rather than an irrevocable split. Courage.

    My own experience tells me that this is just another change in a life of changes. In my lifetime inflation has hit ~25%, interest rates ~15%. Been through three recessions and the .com bust. Some have affected me badly, others not at all. My personal happiness has never been correlated with the country's economic performance. I see no reason why it should in the future.

    Ultimately, very few people will be totally happy with whatever flavour of Brexit we achieve. Life will go on. It's still the best time to be alive in all of human history. We live like gods compared to our ancestors.

    Agree with all that.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?
    If the alternative was not fighting them under the circumstances then yes.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969


    What a load of nonsense.

    On a simlar point: *you* were a UKIP supporter for as long as it took to get the Brexit vote. Look at many of the people *you* sided with and their views; things you have often since repudiated.

    Deluded and dangerous indeed. Yet they served a purpose ...

    Again I have ever said that UKIP were either deluded or dangerous. You do seem to like putting words into other people's mouths. I have simply said that they had a purpose and now that purpose is gone I have no interest in maintaining membership of yet another self serving political party. I also pointed out those bits I disagreed with whilst I was a member, not just afterwards. I was one of the most vocal critics of Farage on here in spite of being a member of the party.

    You do seem to have a very strange view of the world where you keep having to project your own biases onto other people.

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?
    Fighting global wars is a tad more problematic than negotiating a new trade deal, surely?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    Fat_Steve said:

    So, here we are, a day I never expected to happen when the Referendum was called, but we can celebrate the democratic will of the people of the United Kingdom being implemented. A democratic will that could so easily have been subsumed into the grotesque, bloated undemocratic European "Project" that none of us had voted to sign up to.

    Well done, people. And it may prove awkward, and troubling, and worrying, and yes, maybe even a little bit scary. But at least the right to Kick The Buggers Out burns brightly on our little islands, a light that many on the mainland in Europe will come to look upon with envious eyes in the decades to come.

    An issue is that for the less sane leavers "Kick The Buggers Out" is meant literally.

    Instead, I'd prefer to say: "All welcome if you can contribute."
    I think he means governmental buggers rather than immigrant buggers
    Perhaps. But he hasn't kicked 'them' out, has he? Cameron and Osborne have gone, but the rest of the government are pretty much as they are before June last year. And it's not as if the civil service has changed.

    It's an utterly ridiculous way to talk, and quite a dangerous one.
    The rest of the government may have many of the same faces, but they are certainly not "pretty much as they are before June last year". Mark Wallace puts it well:

    Among them were an estimated 2.8 million people who normally do not vote, but recognised the importance of the moment and broke the habits of many years. They had given up faith in voting as a way to change things, but they gave it one more go. Today, many people who had thought themselves powerless will be watching as the most powerful people in the land begin to do as they asked. The power of that moment to convince such people that democracy does work and that their vote does matter should not be underestimated, the opportunity must be taken to keep them engaged, and the responsibility to honour that instruction must not be denied.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/a-truly-historic-moment-today-we-start-the-process-of-leaving-the-eu.html
    That seems irrelevant to the point being made.
    Really? @MarqueeMark's original point was about the democratic will of the people. Kicking an entire philosophy out [in theory; in practice there will of course be compromise] is a bigger win than kicking out individual politicians or indeed parties.
    And my point was about the phrase "Kick the Buggers out".
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    Der Spiegel on May's 5 front battle with:

    - Brussels
    - Scotland
    - Northern Ireland
    - The UK economy
    - The UK opposition

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-grossbritannien-beginnt-verhandlungen-mit-eu-a-1140806.html
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    edited March 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Ishmael_Z

    Your kidding, right? Some of the most ardent PB Leavers live hundreds and thousands of miles away from their supposed beloved Blighty.

    If these people sat and posted how the inhabitants of their adopted countries were a lot of stupid, ghastly, intolerant pigs, you would have at least the beginnings of a tit for tat point there.

    They don't.
    No they don't. Yet they are so keen for the UK to be a strong, pure, independent country, free from both the influence of foreign countries, and from the wrong type of foreigners, that they fuck off and live abroad.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.
    guff

    you have no idea how things will pan out. Nobody does.

    I can however note that nearly one year on the sirens of doom have so far failed to deliver on their national schadenfreudefest.

    Growth - up
    Employment - up
    Investment - up

    what have you got left in your grim locker of misery ?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    If Corbyn has managed to muscle in on a media event that May was supposed to be May's show then it's quite a coup for him...
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Der Spiegel on May's 5 front battle with:

    - Brussels
    - Scotland
    - Northern Ireland
    - The UK economy
    - The UK opposition

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-grossbritannien-beginnt-verhandlungen-mit-eu-a-1140806.html

    another German journalist who has never left London
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Westminster and Whitehall largely work though. Sure, there are some anachronisms - though often they have more purpose than they might appear to have on an initial viewing - but parliament can be and has been reformed.

    I'm sorry to say that your comment reads like you dislike Britain, dislike its history and want to do away with as much of both as possible.

    Sadly, the EU proved itself to be unwilling to even consider proper reform and in the past, when it has stumbled upon the idea of proper reform, it's quickly picked itself up and carried on in the hope that no-one had noticed. The negotiations with Cameron were a classic case in point. They began with him laying out a very sensible plan for the reform of the Union as a whole, one which would have benefited it and which, if carried out, would almost certainly have resulted in a Remain vote because it would have shot various Leave foxes directly and would have put others on notice that reform could be achieved. The EU rejected that sort of thinking outright and instead engaged in a sullen appeasement policy which ultimately delivered so little that it hardly featured at all in the referendum campaign and to the extent that it did, it was as useful to Leave as to Remain.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054


    What a load of nonsense.

    On a simlar point: *you* were a UKIP supporter for as long as it took to get the Brexit vote. Look at many of the people *you* sided with and their views; things you have often since repudiated.

    Deluded and dangerous indeed. Yet they served a purpose ...

    Again I have ever said that UKIP were either deluded or dangerous. You do seem to like putting words into other people's mouths. I have simply said that they had a purpose and now that purpose is gone I have no interest in maintaining membership of yet another self serving political party. I also pointed out those bits I disagreed with whilst I was a member, not just afterwards. I was one of the most vocal critics of Farage on here in spite of being a member of the party.

    You do seem to have a very strange view of the world where you keep having to project your own biases onto other people.
    Nope. And it's quite funny hearing you of all people, say that.

    Still it's a day of victory for you. Congratulations, and I hope it goes as you desire, for you are one of the more measured and sensible leavers. If Brexit was to turn out the way you want, then it may well be a success. So good luck.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080

    HYUFD said:

    Johnny Rotten praises Brexit, Trump and Garage
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JaydaBF/status/846648137011769344

    Rotten's a Garage fan? What're his thoughts on Grime & Jungle?
    Sorry predictive text clearly equates Farage and Garage
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think this day says a lot about us as a democracy. It isn't what the establishment wanted at all, yet here we are. Something to be proud of.

    Charles is as establishment as it gets, and he wanted it. ;)
    Quite, the 'old' establishment is dead keen on it.
    There are rival elites. The elite that dominated politics from about 1990-2015 (Blairite/Cameroon/London -based/internationalist) was beaten, no two ways about it. But, Charles' type of elite is different, more rural, old money, traditionalist Conservative. They'll be very happy with the outcome of the vote.
    A return to managed decline.
    I think it's more like creative destruction. The problem is that no-one yet knows what exactly we're destroying.
    In the words of Sir Richard Mottram, although I'd replace 'department' by 'country':

    'We're all f****d. I'm f****d. You're f****d. The whole department is f****d. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely f****d.'

    (The sentence takes a long time to insert the asterisks but I know some people are a bit sensitive to expletives.)
    Interesting you should interchange the words "department" and "country" because of course that is very much what Ken Clarke and other Eurofanatics like williamglenn would like to see.

    Clarke's quote was: "I look forward to the day when the Westminster Parliament is just a council chamber in Europe"

    Thankfully that day will now not come and Clarke can go to his grave knowing his life's work is in ruins.
    Having voted No in 1975, I was turned into a Euro federalist alonside Messrs Clarke, Heseltine and Livingstone (quite a range!) by 40 years of indifferent govt. from Whitehall, often with the executive using a parliamentary majority of 100-150 to sidestep debate. Without an EU directive forcing us to legislate on water quality- that was 1989 I think - the odds are roughly evens that we'd still be bathing in raw sewage.

    A distant analogy is the positive influence of US federal govt. legislation on the most reactionary states.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    On topic

    Has anyone read Riddle of the Sands? I am a third of the way through it and need some encouragement to push on.

    Off topic

    Just as we do with a Labour government, we'll manage with Brexit although I fear for those who aren't scions of banking dynasties, well paid authors, or on six figure salaries.

    I gave up after less than a third.
    That's not helping much, is it?
    My kindle says 32% so I am there or thereabouts...
    I love Riddle of the Sands. If nothing else it is worth reading for its historic value.

    Churchill cited Erskin Childers as an influence in warning against German aspirations to control the North Sea prior to WW1. He credits Riddle of the Sands with being one of the reasons he was so keen on ensuring the Royal Navy was ready to meet a German naval threat. It is particularly tragic and also says something not very nice about Churchill that he later connived in the arrest and execution of Childers during the Irish Civil War.
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    If Corbyn has managed to muscle in on a media event that May was supposed to be May's show then it's quite a coup for him...
    Corbyn will be shredded
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hammond confirms we cannot 'have our cake and eat it'
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/846990895685742592

    You'd think he'd still be keeping his head down after that fiasco with the budget...
    He is clearly still determined to keep the Remain flag in Cabinet
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Corbyn as well? Now I can understand why May consented to it.
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    Der Spiegel on May's 5 front battle with:

    - Brussels
    - Scotland
    - Northern Ireland
    - The UK economy
    - The UK opposition

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-grossbritannien-beginnt-verhandlungen-mit-eu-a-1140806.html

    And she will win them all
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Good grief. You think fighting two world wars is a good thing?
    If you dont think fighting WW2 was a good thing you are beyond help.
    There is definitely a strain a thought amongst some, that WW2 was simply a falling out between Germany and the rest of Europe. We can argue about 1919 and what followed, but you have to be pretty blind to not see the Germans as being in the wrong in WW2!
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261

    YouGov/Times:

    CON 43 (+2)
    LAB 25 (=)
    LD 11 (=)
    UKIP 10 (-2)
    OTH 10 (-1)

    26th-27th Mar
    N=1,957
    Writeup https://t.co/pmtNmFMQHq

    I think this is pretty much terminal for Labour now

    The polls are wrong,all MOE stuff, Corbynism is a movement that takes time to filter into the public's consciousness etc lol

    And yet he's still probably safe despite all these polls showing a clear pattern or trend here. Any other party and he would be gone ages ago.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783


    Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB
    New YouGov Times poll finds that more GE2015 LAB voters would choose TMau over Corbyn to lead the country. That's serious.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I think I have discovered why @TSE is so anti-May:
    https://twitter.com/BeardedGenius/status/846837214520758272
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited March 2017
    dr_spyn said:
    Tories up 6% since the last general election, Labour down 5%, UKIP down 3% and the LDs up 3%, for the moment at least it is the LDs who are making the most progress against May's government and the polls now starting to reflect the local and parliamentary by elections on that front
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Ishmael_Z

    Your kidding, right? Some of the most ardent PB Leavers live hundreds and thousands of miles away from their supposed beloved Blighty.

    If these people sat and posted how the inhabitants of their adopted countries were a lot of stupid, ghastly, intolerant pigs, you would have at least the beginnings of a tit for tat point there.

    They don't.
    No they don't. Yet they are so keen for the UK to be a strong, pure, independent country, free from both the influence of foreign countries, and from the wrong type of foreigners, that they fuck off and live abroad.
    I imagine they are subverting the enemy from within. Like cunnilingus it is dark and lonely work, but someone has to do it.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited March 2017

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.
    guff

    you have no idea how things will pan out. Nobody does.

    I can however note that nearly one year on the sirens of doom have so far failed to deliver on their national schadenfreudefest.

    Growth - up
    Employment - up
    Investment - up

    what have you got left in your grim locker of misery ?
    Based on the IFS report, the really pernicious effects are going to be medium-term and hard to discern. We're currently far and away the most favoured nation for FDI in Europe.

    The exam question is simply, to what extent is that investment based on our membership of the Single Market? Or, more properly, does the delta between what we have now in terms of SM membership and what May will achieve substantially affect investment decisions? At present, that's not a question we can answer.

    I expect Brexit to exacerbate the next recession, which will come - they're inevitable. However, I think @Topping is closest to my views; it's growth forgone, opportunities lost (and therefore intangible), investments forfeited. Most people won't notice. But I wouldn't like to be working in the automotive sector or agriculture, to name but two.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    Roger said:

    Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.

    Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.

    There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.

    Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.

    My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27
    Strange that I apparently have a higher opinion of our European neighbours than you do Roger. I don't for a minute think they will revert to executions and torture. Why do you think so?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    I was stunned when the referendum postal ballot paper dropped through the door, so stunned that I didn't complain to the press immediately.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36411509#
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Der Spiegel on May's 5 front battle with:

    - Brussels
    - Scotland
    - Northern Ireland
    - The UK economy
    - The UK opposition

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-grossbritannien-beginnt-verhandlungen-mit-eu-a-1140806.html

    What UK opposition?

    That's one down already.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    Off-topic:

    We have a German friend visiting this weekend, so I've removed a book about the Somme from its current abode beside the spare bed.

    Just doing my bit for European harmony. ;)
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    I think I have discovered why @TSE is so anti-May:
    https://twitter.com/BeardedGenius/status/846837214520758272

    I like Poch, I even like Spurs fans, just don't tell Scrapheap.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    An interesting one - Britain turns against referendums

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uz74q2bmzg/InternalResults_170317_Referendums_W.pdf

    It reads as though as losers don't like them because they lost, while winners are fed up with losers constantly trying to delegitimise them.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,951



    Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB
    New YouGov Times poll finds that more GE2015 LAB voters would choose TMau over Corbyn to lead the country. That's serious.

    Terminal, I should say...
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited March 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

    It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

    Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

    A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

    Executions and maiming? When are the first tickets for Trafalgar Square going to be put on sale, Roger? Might be some decent advertising business in it for your firm too.
    Its the knowledge that whatever happens in the rest of the world among our club the rules are absolute.

    If you want it in advertising terms think American Express " It says more about you than cash ever can'

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101

    Der Spiegel on May's 5 front battle with:

    - Brussels
    - Scotland
    - Northern Ireland
    - The UK economy
    - The UK opposition

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-grossbritannien-beginnt-verhandlungen-mit-eu-a-1140806.html

    What UK opposition?
    George Osborne, Tony Blair, Nick Clegg, etc, etc...
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    John_M said:

    But I wouldn't like to be working in the automotive sector or agriculture, to name but two.

    If you work in the automotive sector the big problem heading your way is electric car upstarts doing to you industry what the iPhone did to the likes of Nokia, Motorola, and Ericsson. I would spend a hundred times more effort on that rather than worrying about single market membership.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

    So - what will be the deepest Tory gain, and shallowest Tory loss in 2020.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    John_M said:

    Jonathan said:

    After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.

    And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.

    Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.

    Nuts

    in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.

    If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
    Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.
    guff

    you have no idea how things will pan out. Nobody does.

    I can however note that nearly one year on the sirens of doom have so far failed to deliver on their national schadenfreudefest.

    Growth - up
    Employment - up
    Investment - up

    what have you got left in your grim locker of misery ?
    Based on the IFS report, the really pernicious effects are going to be medium-term and hard to discern. We're currently far and away the most favoured nation for FDI in Europe.

    The exam question is simply, to what extent is that investment based on our membership of the Single Market? Or, more properly, does the delta between what we have now in terms of SM membership and what May will achieve substantially affect investment decisions? At present, that's not a question we can answer.

    I expect Brexit to exacerbate the next recession, which will come - they're inevitable. However, I think @Topping is closest to my views; it's growth forgone, opportunities lost (and therefore intangible), investments forfeited. Most people won't notice. But I wouldn't like to be working in the automotive sector or agriculture, to name but two.
    As ever it's the shifting sands of remainerdom

    we go from fall off a cliff tomorrow, to it's 2 years out, to whatever you fancy next.

    the problem with your view is it assumes we only ever have one path and everything follows from it.

    The biggest issue we will face in the next 3 years will be an "event" which today none of us are predicting and which will put all the Brexit guff on the back burner..


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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    chestnut said:

    An interesting one - Britain turns against referendums

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uz74q2bmzg/InternalResults_170317_Referendums_W.pdf

    It reads as though as losers don't like them because they lost, while winners are fed up with losers constantly trying to delegitimise them.

    Hmmm. I was on the winning side in the AV referendum, and supported the winning side in the Scottish indy ref. I was on the losing side of the Brexit ref, although not unhappily so.

    All in all, I'd say I still like referendums. In the three cases above, a referendum still seems to have been the right thing to do.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Tories up 6% since the last general election, Labour down 5%, UKIP down 3% and the LDs up 3%, for the moment at least it is the LDs who are making the most progress against May's government and the polls now starting to reflect the local and parliamentary by elections on that front
    Swing to the right (CON/UKIP) since the last election.

    The left have something like six parties scrambling around for the minority share (47%) of the vote - I loosely count the Scot Nats as left wing.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901



    Westminster and Whitehall largely work though. Sure, there are some anachronisms - though often they have more purpose than they might appear to have on an initial viewing - but parliament can be and has been reformed.

    I disagree. They don't work. Not much evidence of reform at Westminster and certainly not Whitehall..



    I'm sorry to say that your comment reads like you dislike Britain, dislike its history and want to do away with as much of both as possible.

    No. Britain is complex. You don't have to be a conservative, nationalist wallowing in nostalgia to like your country. Britain has a rich radical tradition that needs to reassert itself.


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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    As Mrs McTurnip calls for another referendum:

    OA (Scotland)
    Thinking about the four or five biggest policy decisions that Parliament considers each year, which of these views comes closer to yours?

    'The best way to make such decisions is for MPs to consider them in detail and for the majority view in Parliament to determine what happens' : 50 (55)

    The best way to make such decisions is for Parliament to hold a referendum and for the majority view among voters to determine what happens' 30 (32)

    Don't know 20 (13)
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    Mr. Eagles, I found myself greatly surprised to be a bit irked at how biased in a Leave direction a piece of the news was yesterday. Kuenssberg[sp] had 5 business leaders, almost uniformly positive.

    It didn't add much to the debate because everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet.

    Mr. Roger, what do you see as the cultural benefits?

    A set of rules that mean 28 totally diverse countries are comitted to certain civilised rights and values. Values that prohibit execution maiming and nearly every other value which we hold dear. Which means anyone from any of the 28 countries can work or live in any of the the other 28 as easily as their adjoining town knowing all enjoy the same rights and level of civilisation.

    Executions and maiming? When are the first tickets for Trafalgar Square going to be put on sale, Roger? Might be some decent advertising business in it for your firm too.
    Its the knowledge that whatever happens in the rest of the world among our club the rules are absolute.

    If you want it in advertising terms think American Express " It says more about you than cash ever can'

    Try getting married in Poland or Bulgaria if you're gay. Enjoy being sterilised before you can transition in several EU countries. Or having to divorce your partner, whether you both wish it or not. EU values are not universal, even in the EU.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362

    chestnut said:

    An interesting one - Britain turns against referendums

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uz74q2bmzg/InternalResults_170317_Referendums_W.pdf

    It reads as though as losers don't like them because they lost, while winners are fed up with losers constantly trying to delegitimise them.

    Hmmm. I was on the winning side in the AV referendum, and supported the winning side in the Scottish indy ref. I was on the losing side of the Brexit ref, although not unhappily so.

    All in all, I'd say I still like referendums. In the three cases above, a referendum still seems to have been the right thing to do.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193
    Pulpstar said:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html

    So - what will be the deepest Tory gain, and shallowest Tory loss in 2020.

    Tories gain Newport East.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,216
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Ishmael_Z

    Your kidding, right? Some of the most ardent PB Leavers live hundreds and thousands of miles away from their supposed beloved Blighty.

    If these people sat and posted how the inhabitants of their adopted countries were a lot of stupid, ghastly, intolerant pigs, you would have at least the beginnings of a tit for tat point there.

    They don't.
    No they don't. Yet they are so keen for the UK to be a strong, pure, independent country, free from both the influence of foreign countries, and from the wrong type of foreigners, that they fuck off and live abroad.
    I imagine they are subverting the enemy from within. Like cunnilingus it is dark and lonely work, but someone has to do it.
    You could always pay a migrant worker to take on the task..
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Mortimer said:



    Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB
    New YouGov Times poll finds that more GE2015 LAB voters would choose TMau over Corbyn to lead the country. That's serious.

    Terminal, I should say...
    No, a 20% deficit to the Tories in voting intention is the magic figure.
This discussion has been closed.