Tories up 6% since the last general election, Labour down 5%, UKIP down 3% and the LDs up 3%, for the moment at least it is the LDs who are making the most progress against May's government and the polls now starting to reflect the local and parliamentary by elections on that front
Swing to the right (CON/UKIP) since the last election.
The left have something like six parties scrambling around for the minority share (47%) of the vote - I loosely count the Scot Nats as left wing.
The left's problem isn't just Corbyn. From about 2007, Labour and 'the left' concentrated on attacking the Conservatives rather than broadcasting a positive vision for the country. All of those warnings and threats (the most famous being repeated pleas of 'x days to save the NHS') have not come true.
Despite the cuts, despite a coalition and Conservative government, we have continued on. There have been struggles, but they have been nowhere near as deep and fraught as Labour promised. Labour have a massive credibility gap.
Do we know what, if any, disclosures there will be from the EU on ongoing negotiations while they are taking place? Any that are mandated by, er, EU law?
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB New YouGov Times poll finds that more GE2015 LAB voters would choose TMau over Corbyn to lead the country. That's serious.
Terminal, I should say...
I'm not sure why that's surprising? I haven't yet heard him disagree with the Tories over anything significant and his history as a politician is one of serial disloyalty and his public persona is being in thrall to a bunch of half baked entryists. What's to like?
OA (Scotland) Thinking about the four or five biggest policy decisions that Parliament considers each year, which of these views comes closer to yours?
'The best way to make such decisions is for MPs to consider them in detail and for the majority view in Parliament to determine what happens' : 50 (55)
The best way to make such decisions is for Parliament to hold a referendum and for the majority view among voters to determine what happens' 30 (32)
Don't know 20 (13)
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
It reads as though as losers don't like them because they lost, while winners are fed up with losers constantly trying to delegitimise them.
Hmmm. I was on the winning side in the AV referendum, and supported the winning side in the Scottish indy ref. I was on the losing side of the Brexit ref, although not unhappily so.
All in all, I'd say I still like referendums. In the three cases above, a referendum still seems to have been the right thing to do.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
This article neatly sums up the intentions of the various member states. I think you will see certain minnow states trying to pull away, and the ones like Hungary that are also eurosceptic are very likely to, but the states that matter will not. France and Germany are largely aligned in general intentions - when that happens it's hard to stop them.
After staying on the fence for most of the campaign, I voted remain because Westminster/Whitehall is not fit for purpose.
And whilst nearly impossible, there was slightly more chance of reforming the EU than an institution that still prints its legislation on dead animals.
Westminster/Whitehall has failed this country for more than 100 years. The work to get it fit for the C21 is unimaginably complex. Makes Brexit look like a picnic.
Nuts
in the last 100 years we have fought two world wars, sat out one cold one, dismantled an Empire, toughed out numerous terrorist campaigns and seen our prosperity rise.
If the recent batch of politicians have been below par you shouldnt have been so tribal and kicked them up the arse. Like 52% of the electorate have just done.
Yeh, kicked them up the arse by shooting yourself in the head. Brilliant.
guff
you have no idea how things will pan out. Nobody does.
I can however note that nearly one year on the sirens of doom have so far failed to deliver on their national schadenfreudefest.
Growth - up Employment - up Investment - up
what have you got left in your grim locker of misery ?
Based on the IFS report, the really pernicious effects are going to be medium-term and hard to discern. We're currently far and away the most favoured nation for FDI in Europe. .
As ever it's the shifting sands of remainerdom
we go from fall off a cliff tomorrow, to it's 2 years out, to whatever you fancy next.
the problem with your view is it assumes we only ever have one path and everything follows from it.
The biggest issue we will face in the next 3 years will be an "event" which today none of us are predicting and which will put all the Brexit guff on the back burner..
Alan, I voted to Leave. But I've always been very clear that it's going to come at an economic cost. It's just that life isn't simply about the economy, as Ms. @Cyclefree expressed it so eloquently yesterday. I've always tried to strike that balance between apocalyptic doom-mongering and Panglossian optimism. Brexit will not be pain free. It doesn't mean that we shouldn't do it.
I do agree that there are bigger fish to fry, and more important trends than our membership of the Single Market (we only have to look at Italy to see that it does not automatically guarantee economic success).
OA (Scotland) Thinking about the four or five biggest policy decisions that Parliament considers each year, which of these views comes closer to yours?
'The best way to make such decisions is for MPs to consider them in detail and for the majority view in Parliament to determine what happens' : 50 (55)
The best way to make such decisions is for Parliament to hold a referendum and for the majority view among voters to determine what happens' 30 (32)
Don't know 20 (13)
So the Scottish Parliament should just vote to become independent instead then?
Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.
Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.
There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.
Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.
My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27
Strange that I apparently have a higher opinion of our European neighbours than you do Roger. I don't for a minute think they will revert to executions and torture. Why do you think so?
I don't necessarily but Turkey for example know exactly what they'd have to do to gain entry and they know their current behaviour would prohibit it. So to join they'd have to commit to major changes and they're changes that would benefit all of us.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB New YouGov Times poll finds that more GE2015 LAB voters would choose TMau over Corbyn to lead the country. That's serious.
Terminal, I should say...
I'm not sure why that's surprising? I haven't yet heard him disagree with the Tories over anything significant and his history as a politician is one of serial disloyalty and his public persona is being in thrall to a bunch of half baked entryists. What's to like?
He disagrees with the Conservatives on just about everything. The fact that you haven't heard him do so is partly down to his lack of communication skills and partly down to your ability to tune out that which you don't want to hear.
So - what will be the deepest Tory gain, and shallowest Tory loss in 2020.
Tories gain Newport East.
On the list as is, there might be one or two beyond that with a UKIP vote to squeeze. Penistone / Walsall South, even maybe Birmingham Erdington. But it's a very academic exercise at the moment.
Shallow losses - Westminster North? Maybe even Ealing Central & Acton.
Supply and demand. There must be a healthy demand for an English education. Universities north of the border will look enviously at our educational Premiership.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
They have elected the SNP to run a devolved adminstration within the UK, and to provide Westminster representation within the UK.
They rejected the SNP's referendum to be outside the UK.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
The SNP Unionists, of which there are a fair number, need to make a choice on whether to carry on supporting the never-endum party or go back to a party that broadly wants the same social outcomes as the SNP promise but within Britain.
Scot Lab need a heavyweight leader.
If UK Labour knew what it was doing, it would concentrate on getting some Scot Lab big guns into Holyrood.
Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.
Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.
There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.
Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.
My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27
Strange that I apparently have a higher opinion of our European neighbours than you do Roger. I don't for a minute think they will revert to executions and torture. Why do you think so?
I don't necessarily but Turkey for example know exactly what they'd have to do to gain entry and they know their current behaviour would prohibit it. So to join they'd have to commit to major changes and they're changes that would benefit all of us.
Given I didn't buy the idea that Turkey was ever going to join the EU when it was being pushed by Leavers I am certainly not going to buy it when it is being pushed by you.
If UK Labour knew what it was doing, it would concentrate on getting some Scot Lab big guns into Holyrood.
A. What's the likelihood of Labour finding its own arse?
B. Who are those big guns of whom you speak?
You've certainly stumped me on (a), though I'd guess that B might lead to Brown. My hazy recall of the time up to 2010 was that he was considerably more popular in Scotland than he was in England.
Unlike Scotland there is no appetite for independence in Wales.
Still El Gordo can try his best, I guess.
El Gordo is trying to whip up an appetite for more devolution elsewhere. Until he can get people excited about a Wessex parliament he might as well not bother...
Mr. Pulpstar, Brown will be wibbling about throwing ever more powers at Holyrood (and, presumably, Cardiff). Never mind a sustainable long term settlement, let's just deepen lopsided devolution for a tactical breather. What an imbecile.
Unlike Scotland there is no appetite for independence in Wales.
Still El Gordo can try his best, I guess.
El Gordo is trying to whip up an appetite for more devolution elsewhere. Until he can get people excited about a Wessex parliament he might as well not bother...
Gordons non-deliverable "Project Home Rule" is barmy
In important news, I've discovered that if you try and draw stuff to promote your own writing, then 'work' includes 'playing with colours to see which look nicest'.
And then remembering you're probably going to make it sepia for a wanted poster...
Mr. Pulpstar, Brown will be wibbling about throwing ever more powers at Holyrood (and, presumably, Cardiff). Never mind a sustainable long term settlement, let's just deepen lopsided devolution for a tactical breather. What an imbecile.
Mr. Calum, precisely. Brown's plan is to progressively give ever more power to Holyrood, until it practically has independence, and then the vote to leave the UK will be a minor rather than a major matter.
I'd say it's incredibly stupid, but in, a world where Amber Rudd is Home Secretary, it's merely credibly stupid.
Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.
Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.
There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.
Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.
My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27
If we were custodians of those standards then by leaving it not us that is losing "civillisation" but europe. Just like people countries are responsible for their own actions. The example we set is still available for them to follow whether we are part of the EU or not just up to them whether they wish to.
Within the eu however those standards were at risk, as the eu superstate became ever closer there would of been more harmonisation. How would you feel if they decided to harmonize minimum wage levels across europe. I can almost guarantee that level wouldnt have been as high as ours
I am pretty sure the establishment will be more entrenched than ever by Brexit. Three reasons. There's a mess to be sorted out that requires skills, wealth and connections. The "kickers-out" aren't taking ownership of the consequences. The removal of the EU as an alternative locus of power concentrates the power in the hands of the indigenous elite.
Of course. If people were really keen on sticking it to the Establishment they would favour the break-up of the UK and the abolition of the monarchy. The Brexit battle was one fought within the Establishment and Brexit is now being handled by the establishment. The left behind and the forgotten have done their bit and will not be consulted again.
We will get by post-Brexit. Those who are well-off now will continue to be well-off, those that struggle will continue to struggle and those in the middle will muddle along as ever. Opportunities we would have had as members of the single market will no longer be there for us, others might appear - though are extremely unlikely to make up for what we have lost.
Mr. Calum, precisely. Brown's plan is to progressively give ever more power to Holyrood, until it practically has independence, and then the vote to leave the UK will be a minor rather than a major matter.
I'd say it's incredibly stupid, but in, a world where Amber Rudd is Home Secretary, it's merely credibly stupid.
Brown's a stealth supporter of Scottish indy? Well, that's a new one.
"Family of Mark Duggan, shot by police in London sparking riots..."
Riots? On day one. Subsequent days were dominated by co-ordinated looting, as well as side-orders of arson and killing.
Edited extra it: Mr. Divvie, I'm not accusing Brown of being a sneaky separatist. I'm accusing him of being a short-sighted oaf. His plan may be intended to help the UK stay together, but the effect would be quite contrary.
So - what will be the deepest Tory gain, and shallowest Tory loss in 2020.
Tories gain Newport East.
On the list as is, there might be one or two beyond that with a UKIP vote to squeeze. Penistone / Walsall South, even maybe Birmingham Erdington. But it's a very academic exercise at the moment.
Shallow losses - Westminster North? Maybe even Ealing Central & Acton.
Shallow losses would be genuine losses (as opposed to missed gains), to the Lib Dems presumably?
Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.
Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.
There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.
Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.
My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27
If we were custodians of those standards then by leaving it not us that is losing "civillisation" but europe. Just like people countries are responsible for their own actions. The example we set is still available for them to follow whether we are part of the EU or not just up to them whether they wish to.
Within the eu however those standards were at risk, as the eu superstate became ever closer there would of been more harmonisation. How would you feel if they decided to harmonize minimum wage levels across europe. I can almost guarantee that level wouldnt have been as high as ours
I'm not at all convinced that there are common "European values". There are very big differences in attitudes both between and within countries on social issues like gay marriage, abortion, hunting, immigration, multiculturalism, feminism, let alone all the economic issues. As there should be. Different societies should be free to pursue their own brand of civilisation.
If the executioner and the torture chamber return to Europe, it will be for reasons that have nothing to do with our membership of the EU.
"Family of Mark Duggan, shot by police in London sparking riots..."
Riots? On day one. Subsequent days were dominated by co-ordinated looting, as well as side-orders of arson and killing.
Edited extra it: Mr. Divvie, I'm not accusing Brown of being a sneaky separatist. I'm accusing him of being a short-sighted oaf. His plan may be intended to help the UK stay together, but the effect would be quite contrary.
You could say it's a gold-standard Brown policy.
I wouldn't worry. There's precisely zero chance of any Brown federal devonotmaxbutentirelyadequate plan being enacted.
Mr. Roger, we don't need Brussels to tell us what civilised rights and values are. For those fearing a 'race to the bottom' (a daft term), we proactively chose to have maternity leave far in excess of the EU minimum.
Travelling and working won't cease. They may be more regulated but the power and authority make policy changes in that area will now rest with a democratically accountable Parliament.
There's no prospect of a return to hanging or torture.
Mr. Jonathan, if your organisation is involved in the drafting of laws then I'd suggest the best permanent records (as well, of course, as digital copies) should be used. These laws might last for centuries. Having someone trawl through the library of Acts checking to see whether the rubbish paper copies have faded and need replacing would be silly.
My point is not that we wont maintain those standards but that we were also custodians of those standards for the other 27
Strange that I apparently have a higher opinion of our European neighbours than you do Roger. I don't for a minute think they will revert to executions and torture. Why do you think so?
I don't necessarily but Turkey for example know exactly what they'd have to do to gain entry and they know their current behaviour would prohibit it. So to join they'd have to commit to major changes and they're changes that would benefit all of us.
But they're changes that Erdogan is not only rejecting but is making a virtue of doing so. It's all a bit Kellogg-Briande; those who agree have no need to do so and those who need to pay no heed.
So - what will be the deepest Tory gain, and shallowest Tory loss in 2020.
Tories gain Newport East.
On the list as is, there might be one or two beyond that with a UKIP vote to squeeze. Penistone / Walsall South, even maybe Birmingham Erdington. But it's a very academic exercise at the moment.
Shallow losses - Westminster North? Maybe even Ealing Central & Acton.
Shallow losses would be genuine losses (as opposed to missed gains), to the Lib Dems presumably?
Ah, well that list isn't very helpful for that! I could see them losing Oxwab at a push (16.7% majority). Though the most extreme results frequently involve MPs stepping down which I doubt Nicola Blackwood wants to do.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam Wilbur Ross in June said whether this merger was blocked "a major near term test" of EU approach to U.K. He's now US Commerce Secretary. Faisal Islam @faisalislam European Commission blocks LOndon Stock Exchange- Deutsche Börse merger on morning of Article 50:
Faisal Islam @faisalislam Wilbur Ross in June said whether this merger was blocked "a major near term test" of EU approach to U.K. He's now US Commerce Secretary. Faisal Islam @faisalislam European Commission blocks LOndon Stock Exchange- Deutsche Börse merger on morning of Article 50:
I may be wrong, but this is the kind of deal that the Commission would have de facto make or break control over after we leave the EU, too. It has little to do with attitudes to the UK and much more to do with a Competition DG that is very wary of dominant positions and has been for years.
Countdown to "but you haven't invoked Article 50 yet" being replaced with "but you haven't left yet" as to why Britain isn't facing an immediate post-referendum recession in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ...
Countdown to "but you haven't invoked Article 50 yet" being replaced with "but you haven't left yet" as to why Britain isn't facing an immediate post-referendum recession in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 ...
Four Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse are due at 12:30pm.
Or to play silly buggers like Lib Dems and Leavers etc love to do when trying to minimise winning figures by adjusting for turnout, then you represent the 15%. 21% multiplied by 72.2% turnout.
another German journalist who has never left London
This Der Spiegel article talks sense. IMO, the biggest problem in terms of difficulty is the 1922 artificial line across Ulster. The obvious solution is Irish reunification, but there are a lot of obstinate people in the 6 counties who would oppose this sensible solution.
In important news, I've discovered that if you try and draw stuff to promote your own writing, then 'work' includes 'playing with colours to see which look nicest'.
And then remembering you're probably going to make it sepia for a wanted poster...
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
another German journalist who has never left London
This Der Spiegel article talks sense. IMO, the biggest problem in terms of difficulty is the 1922 artificial line across Ulster. The obvious solution is Irish reunification, but there are a lot of obstinate people in the 6 counties who would oppose this sensible solution.
The fact that Theresa May is giving Northern Ireland equal billing in her overblown 'precious, precious union' rhetoric is a problem too. One that may have worse consequences than merely her own political failure.
What a grey and miserable day. It saddens me that, for years to come, British political life will be dominated by grinding trade negotiations, blame apportioning, sterility and paralysis. The tweedy English eccentrics responsible - Farage, Nuttall, Mogg etc. - will be but distant memories by the time all this is resolved, if it ever is to anyone's significant satisfaction. I thought we were finally turning away from the old morbid post-Imperial fetishes: a pompous contempt for everything foreign, petty nationalistic symbolism, White Cliffs of Dover, Tommy helmets, the plucky Brit underdog... But we're evidently trapped in the past for the foreseeable future. Dreary times.
While Labour still tie with the Tories in London (35 each - so much for "London a Labour city") they lag everywhere else - including the North (-2) and Midland (-17)
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Yeah, the manifesto clearly broke that once in a generation promise.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Me me me me me . TM is looking after the entire UK by not having another referendum now - it's in the interests of 9/10 of the population that live south of the border - plus around 60% of the 1/10th that live north of the border and don't want another referendum.
What a grey and miserable day. It saddens me that, for years to come, British political life will be dominated by grinding trade negotiations, blame apportioning, sterility and paralysis. The tweedy English eccentrics responsible - Farage, Nuttall, Mogg etc. - will be but distant memories by the time all this is resolved, if it ever is to anyone's significant satisfaction. I thought we were finally turning away from the old morbid post-Imperial fetishes: a pompous contempt for everything foreign, petty nationalistic symbolism, White Cliffs of Dover, Tommy helmets, the plucky Brit underdog... But we're evidently trapped in the past for the foreseeable future. Dreary times.
On the contrary our politicians spending time on grinding trade negotiations etc is a good thing it stops them spending time on idiocies such as the dangerous dogs act, id card, encryption back doors, porn filters. Remember the adage, the devil makes work for idle hands and our parliament has proved that true time and time again over the last couple of decades.
Mr. Calum, precisely. Brown's plan is to progressively give ever more power to Holyrood, until it practically has independence, and then the vote to leave the UK will be a minor rather than a major matter.
I'd say it's incredibly stupid, but in, a world where Amber Rudd is Home Secretary, it's merely credibly stupid.
Inclined to agree, Mr D.
Devolution to Scotland may need to take the form of devolution direct to local areas.
It is noticeable when perusing the 2014 results that Scots Indy is basically popular in Dundee and Glasgow plus a couple of other places.
I have often wondered what purpose is served by having so many layers of government.
MPs plus MSPs seems a bit like double representation.
another German journalist who has never left London
This Der Spiegel article talks sense. IMO, the biggest problem in terms of difficulty is the 1922 artificial line across Ulster. The obvious solution is Irish reunification, but there are a lot of obstinate people in the 6 counties who would oppose this sensible solution.
That's rather like blaming obstinate British voters for standing in the way of a single European State. You have to accept that there are people out there who disagree with you.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Me me me me me . TM is looking after the entire UK by not having another referendum now - it's in the interests of 9/10 of the population that live south of the border - plus around 60% of the 1/10th that live north of the border and don't want another referendum.
It is in no-one's interests to press on with Brexit without allowing the political fissures it has exposed to play out to a logical conclusion.
By proposing neither a new UK constitution, nor permitting the legitimate demands of the Scottish Parliament she is just turning up the heat on a pressure cooker with a known weak spot in Northern Ireland.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Yeah, the manifesto clearly broke that once in a generation promise.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Sturgeon also said about sufficient public demand. That does not exist.
She's trying to have it all ways and needs to be reminded that her fellow Britons need to be respected, after all the good people of Scotland voted to remain as Britons in 2014 and voted as Britons, not Scots, last June.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Sturgeon also said about sufficient public demand. That does not exist.
She's trying to have it all ways and needs to be reminded that her fellow Britons need to be respected, after all the good people Scotland voted to remain as Britons in 2014 and voted as Britons, not Scots, last June.
Yes, or is rather an important word.
Sufficent public demand or Brexit. not Sufficient public demand and Brexit.
Has anyone read Riddle of the Sands? I am a third of the way through it and need some encouragement to push on.
It's very disappointing. As Richard Tyndall says, it's of historic interest (it was very influential in shaping British attitudes to German naval expansion), but as a novel there really isn't much plot. The best bit about it is the early part which sets the scene.
Mr. Alistair, just had a brief look. Suspect I could waste ages on something like that (I wrote an interesting [hopefully] blog on colour theory in advertising recently).
What a grey and miserable day. It saddens me that, for years to come, British political life will be dominated by grinding trade negotiations, blame apportioning, sterility and paralysis. The tweedy English eccentrics responsible - Farage, Nuttall, Mogg etc. - will be but distant memories by the time all this is resolved, if it ever is to anyone's significant satisfaction. I thought we were finally turning away from the old morbid post-Imperial fetishes: a pompous contempt for everything foreign, petty nationalistic symbolism, White Cliffs of Dover, Tommy helmets, the plucky Brit underdog... But we're evidently trapped in the past for the foreseeable future. Dreary times.
Indeed. And all because Cameron couldn't be bothered to do a proper negotiation with EU over migration brake.
another German journalist who has never left London
This Der Spiegel article talks sense. IMO, the biggest problem in terms of difficulty is the 1922 artificial line across Ulster. The obvious solution is Irish reunification, but there are a lot of obstinate people in the 6 counties who would oppose this sensible solution.
The fact that Theresa May is giving Northern Ireland equal billing in her overblown 'precious, precious union' rhetoric is a problem too. One that may have worse consequences than merely her own political failure.
The only threat to the border in NI is the EU.
Migration is minimal so there is no need for a hard border across the six counties, whilst we are in the world of 2019 with online administration, camera technology etc to run 'customs' as opposed to excessive physical checks.
Add on the fact that we will inevitably end up with Canada + on goods and the issue does not exist. Norway and Sweden share a similar land border.
She really does appear to be barking up the wrong tree. I can't imagine another bona-fide full blown independence referendum this side of 2021.
The other way of looking at it is that the people elect the SNP and expect them to get on with the business of delivering independence. They have a mandate to negotiate a frictionless transition with the European Commission and UK government.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
It was literally right there in the SNP Holyrood manifesto. Brexit == IndyRef2.
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Yeah, the manifesto clearly broke that once in a generation promise.
Every time there is an indy referendum we should make it two referendums one for the people of scotland on whether they want to be independent, the other for everyone else in the uk to see if we still want them. If the rest of the uk votes no they are out, if scotland votes yes it is out.
Ok slightly tongue in cheek and as it happens I support Scottish independence however I do not support a sword of Damocles hanging over our head in the form of threatened referendums every time the snp get miffed over something. The constant uncertainty damages not only Scotland but the rest of the UK.
When was the last time that a foreign election was as important to Britain as the coming French one? Was there ever a time?
On the surface, the British government is backing a candidate who openly espouses strengthening the relationship between France and Germany to provide core leadership in the EU. Meanwhile, other candidates want France to chum up with Britain in reforming Europe.
What Britain needs to do is invoke Article 13 of the NATO treaty, ensuring NATOexit a year later. That's an elephant in the dining room. Russia is a player throughout the whole of Europe now, and there's nothing that can be done about it.
But instead, the country has no functioning leadership, no functioning opposition, and the government is going round with a begging bowl to New Zealand and the dictators of the Gulf. Perhaps they can all have a wild party in the Shard before a big fly off, Iceland-style?
Comments
EU to act as one body - they wish.
Incentive for individual states to cheat can't be far away.
Despite the cuts, despite a coalition and Conservative government, we have continued on. There have been struggles, but they have been nowhere near as deep and fraught as Labour promised. Labour have a massive credibility gap.
A gap they're trying to fill it with Corbyn ...
that should go well
Juncker has proved to be a really bad choice
This article neatly sums up the intentions of the various member states. I think you will see certain minnow states trying to pull away, and the ones like Hungary that are also eurosceptic are very likely to, but the states that matter will not. France and Germany are largely aligned in general intentions - when that happens it's hard to stop them.
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/847007078409555969
I do agree that there are bigger fish to fry, and more important trends than our membership of the Single Market (we only have to look at Italy to see that it does not automatically guarantee economic success).
Lab -> LD 1.4%
UKIP -> Con 0.7%
Con -> LD 0.5%
Non voters -> Lab 1.2% (Who won't vote)
Is my very rough guesstimate of the "churn".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The UKIP -> Con figure might be moving up since the last poll on their graph, mind.
Shallow losses - Westminster North? Maybe even Ealing Central & Acton.
They rejected the SNP's referendum to be outside the UK.
The next round of Scottish elections, both to Westminster and Holyrood, will now be fought on the understanding that the SNP will not honour their 'once in a generation' promises.
The SNP Unionists, of which there are a fair number, need to make a choice on whether to carry on supporting the never-endum party or go back to a party that broadly wants the same social outcomes as the SNP promise but within Britain.
Scot Lab need a heavyweight leader.
If UK Labour knew what it was doing, it would concentrate on getting some Scot Lab big guns into Holyrood.
B. Who are those big guns of whom you speak?
Seems bizarre to me, but there we are.
Still El Gordo can try his best, I guess.
https://twitter.com/amolrajanbbc/status/847010085981376512
And then remembering you're probably going to make it sepia for a wanted poster...
'Do you feel angered and betrayed?'
'Errm..'
'THEY'RE GOING TO LET MORE OF 'THEM' IN!'
'Well, perhaps'
'Not good enough, why don't you f*** off to somewhere that fits in with your inadequate levels of anger and betrayal.'
Still less deranged than LBC's question yesterday about whether blasphemy should be punished, or words to that effect.
Mr. D, for Europe, it's the Final Countdown.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/847010474612920320
I'd say it's incredibly stupid, but in, a world where Amber Rudd is Home Secretary, it's merely credibly stupid.
Within the eu however those standards were at risk, as the eu superstate became ever closer there would of been more harmonisation. How would you feel if they decided to harmonize minimum wage levels across europe. I can almost guarantee that level wouldnt have been as high as ours
We will get by post-Brexit. Those who are well-off now will continue to be well-off, those that struggle will continue to struggle and those in the middle will muddle along as ever. Opportunities we would have had as members of the single market will no longer be there for us, others might appear - though are extremely unlikely to make up for what we have lost.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-39428862
"Family of Mark Duggan, shot by police in London sparking riots..."
Riots? On day one. Subsequent days were dominated by co-ordinated looting, as well as side-orders of arson and killing.
Edited extra it: Mr. Divvie, I'm not accusing Brown of being a sneaky separatist. I'm accusing him of being a short-sighted oaf. His plan may be intended to help the UK stay together, but the effect would be quite contrary.
You could say it's a gold-standard Brown policy.
If the executioner and the torture chamber return to Europe, it will be for reasons that have nothing to do with our membership of the EU.
If you object to today's triggering of #Article50 & back a 2nd referendum you represent not the 48% but the 21%
https://mobile.twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/847017474885345281/photo/1
Wilbur Ross in June said whether this merger was blocked "a major near term test" of EU approach to U.K. He's now US Commerce Secretary.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam
European Commission blocks LOndon Stock Exchange- Deutsche Börse merger on morning of Article 50:
This time last year he was an diversity co-ordinator in Bethnal Green. Just shows how the Leave vote gave rise to racism
New research on abstention in French election outlines scenarios under which Le Pen gets further than polls suggest
https://oeilsurlefront.liberation.fr/les-idees/2017/03/26/marine-le-pen-une-faille-de-taille-dans-le-plafond-de-verre_1558453 …
In french.
Brexit means Brexit, for Theresa May, but how far will pragmatism trump departure remains to be seen.
All that matters in the long run is how it turns out.
Or wait 30-35 years.
May: 51 (+4)
Corbyn 13 (-1)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rlhcaejxm0/TimesResults_170327_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
http://colormind.io/
This is just flat out denial to claim otherwise or to pretend the public were fooled.
Devolution to Scotland may need to take the form of devolution direct to local areas.
It is noticeable when perusing the 2014 results that Scots Indy is basically popular in Dundee and Glasgow plus a couple of other places.
I have often wondered what purpose is served by having so many layers of government.
MPs plus MSPs seems a bit like double representation.
By proposing neither a new UK constitution, nor permitting the legitimate demands of the Scottish Parliament she is just turning up the heat on a pressure cooker with a known weak spot in Northern Ireland.
She's trying to have it all ways and needs to be reminded that her fellow Britons need to be respected, after all the good people of Scotland voted to remain as Britons in 2014 and voted as Britons, not Scots, last June.
At GE2015 Lab were only 34% behind with that demographic.
Sufficent public demand or Brexit. not Sufficient public demand and Brexit.
Migration is minimal so there is no need for a hard border across the six counties, whilst we are in the world of 2019 with online administration, camera technology etc to run 'customs' as opposed to excessive physical checks.
Add on the fact that we will inevitably end up with Canada + on goods and the issue does not exist. Norway and Sweden share a similar land border.
Ok slightly tongue in cheek and as it happens I support Scottish independence however I do not support a sword of Damocles hanging over our head in the form of threatened referendums every time the snp get miffed over something. The constant uncertainty damages not only Scotland but the rest of the UK.
On the surface, the British government is backing a candidate who openly espouses strengthening the relationship between France and Germany to provide core leadership in the EU. Meanwhile, other candidates want France to chum up with Britain in reforming Europe.
What Britain needs to do is invoke Article 13 of the NATO treaty, ensuring NATOexit a year later. That's an elephant in the dining room. Russia is a player throughout the whole of Europe now, and there's nothing that can be done about it.
But instead, the country has no functioning leadership, no functioning opposition, and the government is going round with a begging bowl to New Zealand and the dictators of the Gulf. Perhaps they can all have a wild party in the Shard before a big fly off, Iceland-style?