politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hangi

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

...and this country is still allowed to remain in the EU?

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mortimer, pro-Europeans? Do you mean eurofederalists?

On moderation: doesn't everyone consider themselves fairly moderate and define extremity as the degree to which someone's opinion differs from their own? It's the same self-centred perspective that led the old Church to teach the Earth was the centre of the universe, or modern warmists to insist the climate changing simply must be due to human activity. We also see it with maps, with every country (naturally) putting themselves in the centre.

Ishmael_Z said:

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

...and this country is still allowed to remain in the EU?

...with not a whisper of a reprimand from Brussels, nor complaint from Remainers who are prepared to diagnose tolerant old Blighty as a racist hellhole. Why would we want to stay in a club with members like this?

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

Razedabode said:

So, wheres this 4th May general election rumour come from then?

Sunday Times column. Seems regional agents and candidates in Tory party are preparing themselves for May 4th. Whether they have been given the nod to do so, or doing it out of own volition, is not clear. Seems they may just be sniffing the wind and smelling a possible election.

There are a load of reasons now to go for an early GE.

Only one against: May said she wont.

So there wont be one.

There are more reasons than that. Not least because if the only reason were that May said she won't, but there were all those other good reasons to have one, she would change her mind, should change her min in fact, since sticking to a POV when there are, by your reckoning, no reasons to do so, would be downright silly.

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: article on what is (perhaps rightly) dubbed as the most important season for a while:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39274891

I especially liked the opening about declining TV audiences. I wonder why they're falling in the UK...

TwistedFireStopper said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

...and this country is still allowed to remain in the EU?

...with not a whisper of a reprimand from Brussels, nor complaint from Remainers who are prepared to diagnose tolerant old Blighty as a racist hellhole. Why would we want to stay in a club with members like this?

In general, I'd consider post-Brexit Britain to be one of the least racist parts of Europe.

Nah, it's full of racist, xenophobic, little England nationalists. It's that bad, even Nick Griffin wants to get out!

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.

I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.

Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you?

http://europe.newsweek.com/merkel-abe-endorse-free-trade-jabs-trump-rhetoric-570734

Every door Liam Fox knocks on, the European Commission is already there.

The EU presently has no free trade deal with the US, Australia, New Zealand, India, Saudi Arabia or China to mention just a few

There are a number of treaties governing EU-US trade, so it is misleading to claim that the two do business on "WTO terms".

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mortimer, pro-Europeans? Do you mean eurofederalists?

On moderation: doesn't everyone consider themselves fairly moderate and define extremity as the degree to which someone's opinion differs from their own? It's the same self-centred perspective that led the old Church to teach the Earth was the centre of the universe, or modern warmists to insist the climate changing simply must be due to human activity. We also see it with maps, with every country (naturally) putting themselves in the centre.

RoyalBlue said:

The Scots will stay. Ruth will fight a much more 'gloves off' campaign than Darling.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, that's deeply unfair on you. You're clearly a colourblind fellow with a shockingly poor grasp of history.

Mr. CD13, a similar thing (only without recanting) has happened with the polygraph. The polygraph, a so-called lie detector (it is not), is used on paedophiles out of prison. This is especially stupid as, possibly excepting psychopaths, paedophiles are amongst the finest liars. Labour introduced this, and the Coalition continued it. It's indefensibly stupid.

Polygraphs don't detect lies. They detect changes in autonomic physiology. An innocent man might be nervous at being wired up, and 'lie'. A dodgy swine might be a good liar, stay relaxed, and 'tell the truth'.

Here's an article I wrote a few years ago:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/the-polygraph-work-of-science-fiction.html

CarlottaVance said:

That just leaves a Unilateral Declaration of Independence, a nuclear option floated by one conference delegate at a fringe meeting on Friday afternoon. The SNP, however, simply isn’t that daring. Clapping in the House of Commons is about as radical as they get; their days of direct action and (properly) disrupting parliament were long ago jettisoned in favour of respectability.

So that leaves the final and most likely option following Wednesday’s Holyrood vote, yet more sound and fury. Nationalists are generally good at this and can, if necessary, keep it up for several years, which they might well have to do if Mrs May sticks to her guns about not even discussing a Section 30 order until after Brexit has “bedded in”, whatever that might mean.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/15167344.David_Torrance__Prepare_for_a_long__slow_dance_around_the_timing_of_an_independence_referendum/?ref=rss

TheScreamingEagles said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mortimer, pro-Europeans? Do you mean eurofederalists?

On moderation: doesn't everyone consider themselves fairly moderate and define extremity as the degree to which someone's opinion differs from their own? It's the same self-centred perspective that led the old Church to teach the Earth was the centre of the universe, or modern warmists to insist the climate changing simply must be due to human activity. We also see it with maps, with every country (naturally) putting themselves in the centre.

At various times some intellectually challenged PBers have called me a hard leftie and a far right Tory.

Averaging that out, that makes me a centrist, which is true as I'm probably a Gladstonian Liberal.

I wondered why you had been seen visiting Manchester red light districts in your best red shoes .....

Well one of them is on my route to work and the other is a bar I spend in time in a hotel where all the high priced Russian courtesans stay at.

Honest.

MonikerDiCanio said:

Alistair said:

Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

They'll rue the day. The Party will shut their lying mouths.

TwistedFireStopper said:

Sean_F said:

Ishmael_Z said:

rottenborough said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

...and this country is still allowed to remain in the EU?

...with not a whisper of a reprimand from Brussels, nor complaint from Remainers who are prepared to diagnose tolerant old Blighty as a racist hellhole. Why would we want to stay in a club with members like this?

In general, I'd consider post-Brexit Britain to be one of the least racist parts of Europe.

Nah, it's full of racist, xenophobic, little England nationalists. It's that bad, even Nick Griffin wants to get out!

PlatoSaid said:

This has a couple of interesting nuggets on surveillance hopping.

http://truepundit.com/confession-of-fbi-insider-backs-trump-we-tamper-with-wiretaps-evidence-can-eavesdrop-on-your-phones-with-no-warrant/

I've been reading a few IC stories from ex operatives - many are fascinating glimpses, Dan Bongino is ex SS and worth a read if you come across him.

Ishmael_Z said:

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

CD13 said:

Apologies for going off-topic but I find the current furore about diesel engines slightly irritating. A few years ago (Tony was in his full pomp), and I'd moved form the Pharmaceutical industry to work for the Government's shilling, I received a phone call from a University scientist who wanted to talk about his research on the toxicology of PM10s, PM2.5s and PM1s.

As it happened I was aware of this, so I listened with interest, He wanted me to influence the Government's policies. I thanked him for his faith in me, but had to explain it was totally misplaced. I was only a scientist at a junior level and the Government (of any description) only listened to things that were politically appealing. Carbon dioxide and global warming was the only game in town. Diesel was good, petrol was bad, and that was dogma.

Now things have changed, but don't let anyone tell you that the facts ever changed. We've had more confirmation of what we knew anyway. But politicians' mantra has always been that scientists should be on tap, not on top. Now diesel has become Satan, these politicians have ignored their previous enthusiasms and switched totally. It didn't take new facts, it took new fashions. The media has always been the child, bewitched by the shiny and new, and the politicians have generally been the doting parent. "Ah, bless, aren't they sweet."

I was young once, but my cynicism has been learned.

I sometimes wish politicians would for once, not meddle with things they don't understand, or more often, don't want to understand. Unfortunately, that is also a recipe for an obscure political career.

I understand that these changes can take time. Tobacco smoke, lead in petrol needed to be considered on an overall basis. Global warming has far more confounding factors than either. Carbon dioxide is almost certainly a factor, but it has the good fortune to be fashionable.

Oh well, mini-rant over.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Part 963 million of why you never ever want to serve time in an American prison.

On June 23, 2012, Darren Rainey, a schizophrenic man serving time for cocaine possession, was thrown into a prison shower at the Dade Correctional Institution. The water was turned up top 180 degrees — hot enough to steep tea or cook Ramen noodles.

As punishment, four corrections officers — John Fan Fan, Cornelius Thompson, Ronald Clarke and Edwina Williams — kept Rainey in that shower for two full hours. Rainey was heard screaming "Please take me out! I can’t take it anymore!” and kicking the shower door. Inmates said prison guards laughed at Rainey and shouted "Is it hot enough?"

Rainey died inside that shower. He was found crumpled on the floor. When his body was pulled out, nurses said there were burns on 90 percent of his body. A nurse said his body temperature was too high to register with a thermometer. And his skin fell off at the touch.

But in an unconscionable decision, Miami-Dade State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle's office announced Friday that the four guards who oversaw what amounted to a medieval-era boiling will not be charged with a crime.

“The shower was itself neither dangerous nor unsafe,’’ the report says. “The evidence does not show that Rainey’s well-being was grossly disregarded by the correctional staff.’’

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/florida-wont-charge-prison-guards-who-boiled-schizophrenic-black-man-darren-rainey-to-death-9213190

malcolmg said:

Cyan said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Alistair said:

Amazed at all these fresh new voices in Scotish journalism criticising the SNP.

They'll rue the day. The Party will shut their lying mouths.

If Scotland becomes independent, the SNP would be likely to lose the first election by a big margin. So yes, it could well attempt to shut its opponents' mouths and cement itself in office. Many don't realise just how ugly some of the possibilities are.

CUCKOO

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

DEPUTY First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has warned that ­keeping an independent ­Scotland out of the EU could mean people from other European nations living in Scotland could “lose the right to stay here”.

Ms Sturgeon suggested that the 160,000 non-British citizens from other EU members states now resident in Scottish cities and towns could be stripped of their residency rights if Scotland was “outside Europe”.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/sturgeon-warns-europeans-could-lose-right-to-stay-1-3475453

Oh dear. Compare and contrast with the UK government's talk on the topic.

I'm surprised Carlotta isn't busy comparing and contrasting the global leadership of the EU on free trade with 'global' Britain's local difficulties.

Global leadership on free trade? You are having a laugh, aren't you?

http://europe.newsweek.com/merkel-abe-endorse-free-trade-jabs-trump-rhetoric-570734

Every door Liam Fox knocks on, the European Commission is already there.

The EU presently has no free trade deal with the US, Australia, New Zealand, India, Saudi Arabia or China to mention just a few

There are a number of treaties governing EU-US trade, so it is misleading to claim that the two do business on "WTO terms".

No FTA agreement though

David_Evershed said:

UKIP seems to have lost its raison d'etre now we are leaving the EU.

Will the SNP lose its raison d'etre if Scotland votes for independence?

Philip_Thompson said:

David_Evershed said:

UKIP seems to have lost its raison d'etre now we are leaving the EU.

Will the SNP lose its raison d'etre if Scotland votes for independence?

No because the SNP made the transition to party of government before independence.

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

David_Evershed said:

UKIP seems to have lost its raison d'etre now we are leaving the EU.

Will the SNP lose its raison d'etre if Scotland votes for independence?

Not if they are seen as a competent progressive/social democratic party that represents the prevailing mood of the majority of Scottish opinion presently.

The SNP has a lot of work to do to be seen to be competent at just straight vanilla governing.

Theuniondivvie said:

The Norwegians must be amazing people to remain so happy under the burdens of oil and their high rate of acceptance of refugees.

'Norway ousts Denmark as world's happiest country – UN report'

http://tinyurl.com/mhdyr9m

David_Evershed said:

JackW said:

David_Evershed said:

UKIP seems to have lost its raison d'etre now we are leaving the EU.

Will the SNP lose its raison d'etre if Scotland votes for independence?

Not if they are seen as a competent progressive/social democratic party that represents the prevailing mood of the majority of Scottish opinion presently.

Just like UKIP then?

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Norwegians must be amazing people to remain so happy under the burdens of oil and their high rate of acceptance of refugees.

'Norway ousts Denmark as world's happiest country – UN report'

http://tinyurl.com/mhdyr9m

What joy and happiness Nicola is missing out on by failing to honour her promise to personally house refugees.

FF43 said:

To be somewhat fair to politicians, they have lots of different interests to balance and to resolve. In this case, doing something about climate change and boosting their own car industries. So if diesel engines emit less CO2 than gasoline ones and they can support a European industry strength with lots of lovely R&D, it's a win/win. Diesel engines can be made as clean as petrol ones, but it comes with cost and performance penalties, so both car manufacturers and governments were happy to take the shortcut. It's more a lack of coherent thinking than governments ignoring scientists. Scientists wouldn't make those trade-offs and can't be expected to do so.

FF43 said:

FF43 said:

To be somewhat fair to politicians, they have lots of different interests to balance and to resolve. In this case, doing something about climate change and boosting their own car industries. So if diesel engines emit less CO2 than gasoline ones and they can support a European industry strength with lots of lovely R&D, it's a win/win. Diesel engines can be made as clean as petrol ones, but it comes with cost and performance penalties, so both car manufacturers and governments were happy to take the shortcut. It's more a lack of coherent thinking than governments ignoring scientists. Scientists wouldn't make those trade-offs and can't be expected to do so.

I went to an interesting talk about the science policy behind neonicotinoids, insecticides that turned out to have a devastating effect on pollinating bee populations. Although the compounds were tested on large insects, it was a straightforward do they die or don't they test. Neonicotindoids don't actually kill bees but they have behavioural effects that mean bees become confused and lose their instinct for self-preservation, with devastating consequences for populations.

Governments are faced with special interest groups from industrialists who want to keep selling their products, environmentalists who are concerned about diversity with much lower pollination rates and farmers who are simultaneously for and against as they want the insecticides but are worried about their crops being pollinated.

Governments have dealt with this by selectively banning particular neonicotinoid compounds. They can then be seen to be dealing with the problem, while industrialists can easily switch to other not yet banned compounds that have the same effect.

The fundamental problem was with the original test, which doesn't measure what actually needs to be tested. As the target insects are killed deleteriously rather than instantly, you might expect scientists to realise a similar effect could happen on larger insects. Governments once informed that a mistake was made in the testing could now enforce a ban. Neither is happening.

Cyan said:

NickPalmer said:

Macron has caught up with Le Pen on round 1 in the latest poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Tonight's debate among the best-polling five candidates can be watched online at 8pm GMT, 9pm French time, here:

http://www.streaming-hub.com/tf1-direct/

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:

A sad loss to British politics.

https://twitter.com/LeanneSpurs/status/843739922926391296

At the invitation of the PM of Hungary, to be fair. "Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban says his country will open its arms to west Europeans fleeing mass immigration and “the lords of globalist politics”. http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/hungary-will-welcome-true-refugees-germans-french-others-seeking-europe-lost-homelands/

Just imagine if a bienpensant UK Remainer had a second home in Hungary, and Griffin moved in next door. What a sitcom that would make.

I wonder if Nick will be taking his pigs (if they haven't been finally solved) Anne and Frank with him? Which would be worse for the bien pensant, Nick gurning over the garden fence or the smell of pig shit?

Edit: I see the piggies are long ago consumed. Still, Nick has hilariously transferred the names to his two rotweillers.

Golly. I knew he was horrible, but not that horrible.

Pulpstar said:

@FF43 @CD13

There is no tax differential between petrol and diesel cars in the new VED rules though..
So other than personal conscience, why would I be incentivised to (eventually) replace my diesel with a petrol ?
I do drive a diesel, but I think the decision to maintain the same VED between otherwise identical NEW petrol and diesel cars is odd - given the evidence now available. People are choosing to buy new diesels, it isn't a past decision that people will be punished for (Always an important distinction when deciding how 'fair' this sort of tax/charge is)

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, aye, but the political class treat them as science. It's utterly indefensible. There are at least half a dozen ways to fool one (my personal favourite is slipping into a trance), the worst of which is simply being good at lying.