politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hangi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.
Since Nicola Sturgeon’s bombshell speech last week, where she indicated her intention to ask for a second referendum on Scottish Independence, the conventional wisdom appears to have been on something of a journey. The original reaction was one of panic. This was it. Just as we all feared, Scotland was heading for Independence as a consequence of the Brexit vote. Then Theresa May just said ‘no’. Now was not the time. There was a collective sigh of relief. ‘It’s not as bad as we feared’, the argument went, the SNP have overplayed their hand and this will all backfire on them.
Comments
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Fairly early.0
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2nd - like Labour - if they are lucky :-)0
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(One can never be sure of being first. And anyway, I'm not positionist...)
A good header, and nice to see someone accepting that there are arguments on both sides, rather than just calling those with a different opinion idiots.0 -
4th! Like the LibDems still are0
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I assure you, header, plenty of people are far from complacent about this issue. It may not be as certain as the nationalists act like it is - not least because they always act that certain - but it came close despite the various arguments, and those same arguments may well be stronger now, but they can always be overcome, particularly with emotion.
The complacency I think is more a reaction to thinking a new referendum will not likely happen, it is felt, when Sturgeon has asked for it, but that always felt like an opening gambit more than a firm goal, so they are prepared for that to be beaten back.0 -
In the Netherlands, the Dutch PvdA - the big losers last week having been junior coalition members under Rutte - have ruled out any role in government.
Betfair moves a little. I must admit having suggested laying at 1/33 (i.e. to get 33/1) on Rutte to be PM, the actual odds I got were worse than that but the 1.06/7 now available is zero value for me. A good return though if you did lay at 1/33.0 -
Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.0 -
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.0 -
Whose complacent? I've felt since 1997 that it was a matter if when not of Scotland left the UK.0
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From once in a generation to once for the rest of all time.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
Hmmm...
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They'll never have a weaker opposition, more distracted Westminster government, or more favourable conditions to call on external diplomatic support.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
May has picked a fight she's likely to lose.0 -
While the economic case is clearly bonkers in the short term, Scottish people would adapt to the realities and elect a government that would be forced to balance the books.
The closest parallel is New Zealand, large land areas, bulk of population concentrated in a few cities with a close neighbour sharing a language /culture which will draw off excess capacity in the labour market.
The politics of it are simple, whilst the labour party is near death, Yes will get over the line in any vote. "No" would be viewed as a tory gig, and ultimately doomed to fail, despite it's virtues.0 -
More just how it would occur to spend one's money in such a fashion. But clearly it would make a great conversation starter (or stopper).SeanT said:
The theory is that he was quite a sad man, who was forced into intense hedonism by his severe German father and undying but highly sexed English mother, depriving him of purpose and identity, but reinforcing his libido. He was literally pointless, but horny. And hungry.kle4 said:
What a rich, full life he had. I wonder how someone gets into the idea of purchasing antique sex furniture as a hobby though.SeanT said:
He was a DUDE.Sean_F said:
And he drank like a fish, smoked like a chimney, fornicated like a rabbit, and reached the ripe old age (for those days) of 70.SeanT said:I see there has been a discussion of food, poshness and suppers.
I once nearly wrote a book on The Seven Sins, including Gluttony, and discovered just how much King Edward VII ate, on a regular basis (and he was quite a fashion-setter, from his taste in food, right down to the unbuttoned lower waistcoat button)
Here you go:
Just in case the near-famished Prince got a little peckish in the wee small hours, his manservant would place a cold roast chicken on the royal bedside.
Also, our beloved King had a special chair made by Parisian carpenters, so, despite his corpulence, he could have anal, vaginal and oral sex with three different French courtesans simultaneously.
I once tried to track down this chair, and got as far as the auctioneer who sold it a few years ago, but the client refused to be named.
It still exists!
God Save The King.
http://www.theweek.co.uk/28193/trail-edward-vii’s-sex-chair-threesomes
He was a pretty brutal cuckolder. Yet, in his defence, he was also happy to be cuckolded (in terms of mistresses).
As for the chair, are you mad? Who wouldn't want to own that. Incredible.
"By the way, reverend, since you're a history buff you might like to know that chair you're sat on was a sex chair owned by Edward VIII; it's seen more degrading acts of debauchery than a thousand brothers. Would you like a biscuit with your tea?"0 -
That photograph pretty much sums up Nicola Sturgeon's politics: a bit of cardboard with "Scotland" written on it.0
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While it has been pointed out that the Quebec example, among others, does not necessarily mean should IndyRef2 fail that the cause would be set back decades, it will be the biggest risk they are fearing. Some people may still be swayed by the thought that while last time they might get another chance in a 'generation', even a normal generation, they might never get another chance even if they are only 16 now, and do they never want to chance it?RobD said:
From once in a generation to once for the rest of all time.TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
Hmmm...0 -
There is a self made billionaire called bill Perkins who has a real good way of expressing this...He talks about setting the burn rate. That you need to set your spending so that you maximize the things you can enjoy while you can enjoy them while leaving enough money to support yourself when you are too old. maximize stuff you enjoy like drinking, shagging, travelling etc before you are too old to be able to spend it on that and don't leave yourself with a massive pile of dosh.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Basically you should have maximum burn rate in your 50-60s going nuts, cos you won't be able to when you are 80.0 -
When you put it in those terms, it sounds quite problematic - I can actually see the last suggestion being made, if it has not already.nielh said:
It seems bizarre to change the fundamental principles of how a trial works for one type of offence. There are lots of other types of trial where a victim could be frightened or intimidated.SeanT said:This is incredible. The last deterrent to false rape accusations is about to be removed. Rape complainants are already anonymous for life, now they won't even have to go to court. They will be video-taped somewhere else
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/19/victims-rape-spared-ordeal-cross-examination-court
You want revenge on your boyfriend? Did you have sex? Pah, just accuse him of rape. You will never be named, and you will never even have to see him in a court-room. He will get a year of hell, and be named, even if acquitted.
I don't see how this change would necessarily even work in the victims favour, because it allows the defendant to tell his side of the story to the jury, whereas the accuser is simply stuck with giving evidence by some sort of pre recorded video link. Wouldn't this actually make it easier for the defence to cast doubt on the accuser in some ways?
This has the hallmarks of a stupid idea pushed forward by an amateur Justice Secretary. Next she will be looking at changing the test for conviction from 'beyond reasonable doubt' to a balance of probabilities test. Because we all agree we need to get the conviction rate up and thats the main thing, right?0 -
At the same time, it's very sad when those with material success lose the ability to appreciate inexpensive pleasures. I know plenty of people who take home £XXXk but are content at best, stuck in a routine of expensive diversions but with no real time for reflection or spontaneity.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Just my two pennorth!
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Yes, I think the effect would be to reduce conviction rates. The opposite of what is intended.kle4 said:
When you put it in those terms, it sounds quite problematic - I can actually see the last suggestion being made, if it has not already.nielh said:
It seems bizarre to change the fundamental principles of how a trial works for one type of offence. There are lots of other types of trial where a victim could be frightened or intimidated.SeanT said:This is incredible. The last deterrent to false rape accusations is about to be removed. Rape complainants are already anonymous for life, now they won't even have to go to court. They will be video-taped somewhere else
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/19/victims-rape-spared-ordeal-cross-examination-court
You want revenge on your boyfriend? Did you have sex? Pah, just accuse him of rape. You will never be named, and you will never even have to see him in a court-room. He will get a year of hell, and be named, even if acquitted.
I don't see how this change would necessarily even work in the victims favour, because it allows the defendant to tell his side of the story to the jury, whereas the accuser is simply stuck with giving evidence by some sort of pre recorded video link. Wouldn't this actually make it easier for the defence to cast doubt on the accuser in some ways?
This has the hallmarks of a stupid idea pushed forward by an amateur Justice Secretary. Next she will be looking at changing the test for conviction from 'beyond reasonable doubt' to a balance of probabilities test. Because we all agree we need to get the conviction rate up and thats the main thing, right?0 -
I also envy people's optimism about the Scottish situation. We have already thrown everything up in the air by voting to leave the EU, the probability of the scots doing the same in a second scottish referendum must also be very high.
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Given that they've already lied about the first one being "once in a generation", would they be believed?TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.0 -
The Quebec precedent says so.ThreeQuidder said:
Given that they've already lied about the first one being "once in a generation", would they be believed?TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.0 -
The Scots will stay. Ruth will fight a much more 'gloves off' campaign than Darling.0
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It's surely not so much about whether the SNP claiming that would be believed. The opposition will likely make the point too, for the same reason - to encourage supporters to turn out to settle the issue. So it is more about whether it will be believed to be the case, regardless of who makes the point and whether or not they lied before (or if people believed the changed circumstances justify it or not).ThreeQuidder said:
Given that they've already lied about the first one being "once in a generation", would they be believed?TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
40% would vote for it under any circumstances. They will turn out. The Nats need to convince enough of the rest that the situation has changed, for the worse for Scotland, and that this is the only chance to fix it. It is doable.0 -
You might live longer than you think. Running out of money in old age is no fun.SeanT said:
Yup. That's it. Exactly.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a self made billionaire called bill Perkins who has a real good way of expressing this...He talks about setting the burn rate. That you need to set your spending so that you maximize the things you can enjoy while you can enjoy them while leaving enough money to support yourself when you are too old. maximize stuff you enjoy like drinking, shagging, travelling etc before you are too old to be able to spend it on that and don't leave yourself with a massive pile of dosh.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Basically you should have maximum burn rate in your 50-60s going nuts, cos you won't be able to when you are 80.
In a couple of weeks I will have half a million quid in the bank. In cash. I could invest it all wisely, blah blah blah, but Jesus what was the F-ing point in it all, if that's all I do?
How about I invest half, wisely and sagaciously, put another quarter into risky investments, and then just go mad bonkerooni fuckola Edward VII oral sex armchair with the last £100,000. Have the time of my life?
I'm 53. Very soon I will be too old to enjoy anything but very soft foodstuffs.
I think you'll manage somehow
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I agree. Better a fish finger sandwich with a loving partner, than a Michelin meal spoiled by bad company. The simple pleasures are best, not least so that you appreciate the finer things as treats.RoyalBlue said:
At the same time, it's very sad when those with material success lose the ability to appreciate inexpensive pleasures. I know plenty of people who take home £XXXk but are content at best, stuck in a routine of expensive diversions but with no real time for reflection or spontaneity.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Just my two pennorth!0 -
"Don't bother voting Indy, we'll all be in thrall to the robots soon anyway" would make for an interesting campaign slogan.SeanT said:
They won't turn out. They are kids. TMay is gonna deny Sindyref into the 2020s. By then we could all be subservient to sentient robots. Tech changes which will transform our lives inways which are about to overwhem us. Look at this:kle4 said:
It's surely not so much about whether the SNP claiming that would be believed. The opposition will likely make the point too, for the same reason - to encourage supporters to turn out to settle the issue. So it is more about whether it will be believed to be the case, regardless of who makes the point and whether or not they lied before (or if people believed the changed circumstances justify it or not).ThreeQuidder said:
Given that they've already lied about the first one being "once in a generation", would they be believed?TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
40% would vote for it under any circumstances. They will turn out. The Nats need to convince enough of the rest that the situation has changed, for the worse for Scotland, and that this is the only chance to fix it. It is doable.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/843419789276172289
Seriously. Watch those vids.
The great moment for tiny nations to seek some illusory indy has passed. They may do it, but who cares. We are on the cusp of epochal changes.
Personally I was kind of hoping the robots could wait until I'm too old to care.0 -
Re rise of the robots...
Should note uber self driving car is a total bust. In their testing it is requiring loads of human input
Somebody will get there but uber are miles off.0 -
Can everyone commenting on this thread who insisted that Sturgeon was bluffing about a second referendum stick their paws up, just for full disclosure like?0
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@MSmithsonPB: Tomorrow Mr. Trump will complete his 2nd month as President and we are still all here. Something to be thankful about0
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I don't think anyone is complacent on this issue but even now when Sturgeon is talking of a supposed 'hard Brexit' no still has a clear lead in most polls while polling also shows Britons as a whole put Brexit first, even at the risk of independence0
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I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.0 -
Not filling in the bomb shelter at chez urquhart just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:@MSmithsonPB: Tomorrow Mr. Trump will complete his 2nd month as President and we are still all here. Something to be thankful about
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Buy a bungalow in Budleigh Salterton.SeanT said:
Yup. That's it. Exactly.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a self made billionaire called bill Perkins who has a real good way of expressing this...He talks about setting the burn rate. That you need to set your spending so that you maximize the things you can enjoy while you can enjoy them while leaving enough money to support yourself when you are too old. maximize stuff you enjoy like drinking, shagging, travelling etc before you are too old to be able to spend it on that and don't leave yourself with a massive pile of dosh.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Basically you should have maximum burn rate in your 50-60s going nuts, cos you won't be able to when you are 80.
In a couple of weeks I will have half a million quid in the bank. In cash. I could invest it all wisely, blah blah blah, but Jesus what was the F-ing point in it all, if that's all I do?
How about I invest half, wisely and sagaciously, put another quarter into risky investments, and then just go mad bonkerooni fuckola Edward VII oral sex armchair with the last £100,000. Have the time of my life?
I'm 53. Very soon I will be too old to enjoy anything but very soft foodstuffs.
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Height of rock N roll spending...Sean_F said:
Buy a bungalow in Budleigh Salterton.SeanT said:
Yup. That's it. Exactly.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a self made billionaire called bill Perkins who has a real good way of expressing this...He talks about setting the burn rate. That you need to set your spending so that you maximize the things you can enjoy while you can enjoy them while leaving enough money to support yourself when you are too old. maximize stuff you enjoy like drinking, shagging, travelling etc before you are too old to be able to spend it on that and don't leave yourself with a massive pile of dosh.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Basically you should have maximum burn rate in your 50-60s going nuts, cos you won't be able to when you are 80.
In a couple of weeks I will have half a million quid in the bank. In cash. I could invest it all wisely, blah blah blah, but Jesus what was the F-ing point in it all, if that's all I do?
How about I invest half, wisely and sagaciously, put another quarter into risky investments, and then just go mad bonkerooni fuckola Edward VII oral sex armchair with the last £100,000. Have the time of my life?
I'm 53. Very soon I will be too old to enjoy anything but very soft foodstuffs.0 -
Or we merge with robots to become cyborgs as some seem to wantSeanT said:
They won't turn out. They are kids. TMay is gonna deny Sindyref into the 2020s. By then we could all be subservient to sentient robots. Tech changes which will transform our lives inways which are about to overwhem us. Look at this:kle4 said:
It's surely not so much about whether the SNP claiming that would be believed. The opposition will likely make the point too, for the same reason - to encourage supporters to turn out to settle the issue. So it is more about whether it will be believed to be the case, regardless of who makes the point and whether or not they lied before (or if people believed the changed circumstances justify it or not).ThreeQuidder said:
Given that they've already lied about the first one being "once in a generation", would they be believed?TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
40% would vote for it under any circumstances. They will turn out. The Nats need to convince enough of the rest that the situation has changed, for the worse for Scotland, and that this is the only chance to fix it. It is doable.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/843419789276172289
Seriously. Watch those vids.
The great moment for tiny nations to seek some illusory indy has passed. They may do it, but who cares. We are on the cusp of epochal changes.0 -
Guess we'll just have to wait and see. Much depends on how it works in practice.Sean_F said:
Yes, I think the effect would be to reduce conviction rates. The opposite of what is intended.kle4 said:
When you put it in those terms, it sounds quite problematic - I can actually see the last suggestion being made, if it has not already.nielh said:
It seems bizarre to change the fundamental principles of how a trial works for one type of offence. There are lots of other types of trial where a victim could be frightened or intimidated.SeanT said:This is incredible. The last deterrent to false rape accusations is about to be removed. Rape complainants are already anonymous for life, now they won't even have to go to court. They will be video-taped somewhere else
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/19/victims-rape-spared-ordeal-cross-examination-court
You want revenge on your boyfriend? Did you have sex? Pah, just accuse him of rape. You will never be named, and you will never even have to see him in a court-room. He will get a year of hell, and be named, even if acquitted.
I don't see how this change would necessarily even work in the victims favour, because it allows the defendant to tell his side of the story to the jury, whereas the accuser is simply stuck with giving evidence by some sort of pre recorded video link. Wouldn't this actually make it easier for the defence to cast doubt on the accuser in some ways?
This has the hallmarks of a stupid idea pushed forward by an amateur Justice Secretary. Next she will be looking at changing the test for conviction from 'beyond reasonable doubt' to a balance of probabilities test. Because we all agree we need to get the conviction rate up and thats the main thing, right?
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The tax burden shouldered by Britain's wealthiest has almost trebled since the 1970s, analysis of historic data reveals - further undermining the Conservative's reputation as a "low tax" party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/19/tax-burden-wealthy-has-trebled-since-1970s-telegraph-analysis/0 -
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.0 -
If I were completely shameless I would say "we're starting a business and could really use 5 grand in risky investment".SeanT said:
Yup. That's it. Exactly.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a self made billionaire called bill Perkins who has a real good way of expressing this...He talks about setting the burn rate. That you need to set your spending so that you maximize the things you can enjoy while you can enjoy them while leaving enough money to support yourself when you are too old. maximize stuff you enjoy like drinking, shagging, travelling etc before you are too old to be able to spend it on that and don't leave yourself with a massive pile of dosh.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Basically you should have maximum burn rate in your 50-60s going nuts, cos you won't be able to when you are 80.
In a couple of weeks I will have half a million quid in the bank. In cash. I could invest it all wisely, blah blah blah, but Jesus what was the F-ing point in it all, if that's all I do?
How about I invest half, wisely and sagaciously, put another quarter into risky investments, and then just go mad bonkerooni fuckola Edward VII oral sex armchair with the last £100,000. Have the time of my life?
I'm 53. Very soon I will be too old to enjoy anything but very soft foodstuffs.
But then I guess if I were that shameless I'd be like those people you see on bailiff shows on TV who haven't paid any rent for six months...0 -
"But, sir! Nobody worries about upsetting a droid!"HYUFD said:
Or we merge with robots to become cyborgs as some seem to wantSeanT said:
They won't turn out. They are kids. TMay is gonna deny Sindyref into the 2020s. By then we could all be subservient to sentient robots. Tech changes which will transform our lives inways which are about to overwhem us. Look at this:kle4 said:
It's surely not so much about whether the SNP claiming that would be believed. The opposition will likely make the point too, for the same reason - to encourage supporters to turn out to settle the issue. So it is more about whether it will be believed to be the case, regardless of who makes the point and whether or not they lied before (or if people believed the changed circumstances justify it or not).ThreeQuidder said:
Given that they've already lied about the first one being "once in a generation", would they be believed?TheScreamingEagles said:
If I hadn't been ill this weekend, I was writing a thread which said pretty much that.Tissue_Price said:Sturgeon's attack was borne out of necessity and her position is far weaker than she would like. Remember the [pre-Brexit] briefing about consistent 60%+ polling for independence?
But of course that doesn't mean she won't succeed. However I do think that this time it's just as existential for the SNP as for the Union.
That the Nats should tell Scots its now or never for Independence, which might be enough to swing it for them.
40% would vote for it under any circumstances. They will turn out. The Nats need to convince enough of the rest that the situation has changed, for the worse for Scotland, and that this is the only chance to fix it. It is doable.
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/843419789276172289
Seriously. Watch those vids.
The great moment for tiny nations to seek some illusory indy has passed. They may do it, but who cares. We are on the cusp of epochal changes.0 -
Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
In the Old Town here, every house has a cellar designed to flood and hold rainwater. It's a relic of the days that the Rock was under regular siege from the Spanish.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not filling in the bomb shelter at chez urquhart just yet.TheScreamingEagles said:@MSmithsonPB: Tomorrow Mr. Trump will complete his 2nd month as President and we are still all here. Something to be thankful about
Mine has been converted into a wonderful wine cellar and man-cave. The idea that I needed to stock it with tinned sardines and distilled water for some Trump armageddon event, though, never crossed my mind.0 -
Wanting the wishes of 8% of the population not to have a veto over the remainder does not make Leavers English nationalists.Bojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.
0 -
I reckon you could probably raise that off this thread, if it's a good idea and you're willing to pitch it publicly...ThreeQuidder said:If I were completely shameless I would say "we're starting a business and could really use 5 grand in risky investment".
0 -
Royal Magistrate: It can all end, right now. Peace. Bliss. Just say it. Cry out "Brussels".
Crowd: Brussels... Brussels!
Royal Magistrate: Cry out. Just say it. "Brussels".
Hamish: Brussels lad, Brussels.
Stephen: Jesus, Brussels.
Royal Magistrate: [to crowd] The prisoner wishes to say a word.
William: BREEE-XXXITTTTT!!!!!0 -
I am in my early 30s with a young kid though, I have only been earning this much for about 3 years.SeanT said:
Yup. That's it. Exactly.FrancisUrquhart said:
There is a self made billionaire called bill Perkins who has a real good way of expressing this...He talks about setting the burn rate. That you need to set your spending so that you maximize the things you can enjoy while you can enjoy them while leaving enough money to support yourself when you are too old. maximize stuff you enjoy like drinking, shagging, travelling etc before you are too old to be able to spend it on that and don't leave yourself with a massive pile of dosh.SeanT said:fpt for ChaosOdin
When I first started making serious money - i.e. six figures - when I began writing the Tom Knox thrillers, about a decade ago, a good friend of mine gave me some great advice. He was from a pretty rich upper middle class family and, maybe more importantly, he knew lots of really really rich self made men, and aristos, alike.
His advice was: enjoy your money. Spend it. Enjoy your life and enjoy your success.
And he was absolutely fucking right, it was some of the best advice I've ever had. I have enjoyed it, and spent it. You don't have to spend yourself to oblivion, but what is the point in being successful, financially, if you can't get laid, eat lobster, fly first class, go to Bhutan on a whim, etc etc etc
Enjoy it. Life ends. Sooner than you think.
Enjoy it.
Basically you should have maximum burn rate in your 50-60s going nuts, cos you won't be able to when you are 80.
In a couple of weeks I will have half a million quid in the bank. In cash. I could invest it all wisely, blah blah blah, but Jesus what was the F-ing point in it all, if that's all I do?
How about I invest half, wisely and sagaciously, put another quarter into risky investments, and then just go mad bonkerooni fuckola Edward VII oral sex armchair with the last £100,000. Have the time of my life?
I'm 53. Very soon I will be too old to enjoy anything but very soft foodstuffs.
I feel like I should be cautious for a few years more to make sure that if things do go wrong I can keep us all comfortably into old age.
At the moment, being relatively newly well off, I have been buying the things we will need for ever, like a nice house, furnishing it with top quality stuff, etc. At least then I know my daughter is comfortably off until she leaves school.
As for the camping, we mostly go because my daughter and my dogs love it. I do like spending money on nice stuff (and got knows I have my rich mans trinkets like cars and watches), but lots of nice stuff doesn't actually cost very much.0 -
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.0 -
You'd argue that it was "low" in comparison with the other options on offer.FrancisUrquhart said:The tax burden shouldered by Britain's wealthiest has almost trebled since the 1970s, analysis of historic data reveals - further undermining the Conservative's reputation as a "low tax" party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/19/tax-burden-wealthy-has-trebled-since-1970s-telegraph-analysis/
Still eye-wateringly horrible though. It's a disgrace that any govt should believe that stealing over half of your income was in any way morally acceptable.0 -
I'm eating baked beans quite a lot at the moment, not because I like them but because that's all I can afford just now. Sorry to interrupt all the millionaire talk, lol.0
-
Can't find nice baked beans here for love nor money over here. You've made me quite jealous.AndyJS said:I'm eating baked beans quite a lot at the moment, not because I like them but because that's all I can afford just now. Sorry to interrupt all the millionaire talk, lol.
0 -
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.0 -
Tried black beans? With some rice and plantain. Cheap and tasty traditional Cuban peasant food.AndyJS said:I'm eating baked beans quite a lot at the moment, not because I like them but because that's all I can afford just now. Sorry to interrupt all the millionaire talk, lol.
0 -
I don't remember Scottish Labour being that influential last time, their leader Johann Lamont was a total non entity and the Scottish Labour MPs like Jim Murphy probably did more harm to the cause than good.asjohnstone said:While the economic case is clearly bonkers in the short term, Scottish people would adapt to the realities and elect a government that would be forced to balance the books.
The closest parallel is New Zealand, large land areas, bulk of population concentrated in a few cities with a close neighbour sharing a language /culture which will draw off excess capacity in the labour market.
The politics of it are simple, whilst the labour party is near death, Yes will get over the line in any vote. "No" would be viewed as a tory gig, and ultimately doomed to fail, despite it's virtues.
In terms of it being a Tory gig, the Conservatives don't even platform on being Tories in Scotland, No will have a wide group of politicians to call on.0 -
Scots already have one, way, way worse than Kiwis.SeanT said:
New Zealanders have a perpetual, and corroding inferiority complex vis a vis Australia. It is powerful, and astonishingly pervasive. On my recent trips to Oz I discussed it with several Kiwis who agreed this was the case.asjohnstone said:While the economic case is clearly bonkers in the short term, Scottish people would adapt to the realities and elect a government that would be forced to balance the books.
The closest parallel is New Zealand, large land areas, bulk of population concentrated in a few cities with a close neighbour sharing a language /culture which will draw off excess capacity in the labour market.
The politics of it are simple, whilst the labour party is near death, Yes will get over the line in any vote. "No" would be viewed as a tory gig, and ultimately doomed to fail, despite it's virtues.
But I'm not sure this reinforces the case for indy. If Scots say No, they stay British. Then we are all the same. Why vote to give yourself an inferiority complex?
My bet is they will Stay. And yay for that.
It's little brother syndrome. (Btw kiwis living in Australia are as representive of the population as Scots in London, not very)
0 -
Yes, it is quite striking how few cheerleaders she has (compared to Cameron, Blair, Osborne etc). Meanwhile the pro-European centre ground are coalescing - I noticed Blair giving his public support for Ozzy's Evening Standard editorship today. Made me smile.foxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.0 -
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.nielh said:
Guess we'll just have to wait and see. Much depends on how it works in practice.Sean_F said:
Yes, I think the effect would be to reduce conviction rates. The opposite of what is intended.kle4 said:
When you put it in those terms, it sounds quite problematic - I can actually see the last suggestion being made, if it has not already.nielh said:
It seems bizarre to change the fundamental principles of how a trial works for one type of offence. There are lots of other types of trial where a victim could be frightened or intimidated.SeanT said:This is incredible. The last deterrent to false rape accusations is about to be removed. Rape complainants are already anonymous for life, now they won't even have to go to court. They will be video-taped somewhere else
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/19/victims-rape-spared-ordeal-cross-examination-court
You want revenge on your boyfriend? Did you have sex? Pah, just accuse him of rape. You will never be named, and you will never even have to see him in a court-room. He will get a year of hell, and be named, even if acquitted.
I don't see how this change would necessarily even work in the victims favour, because it allows the defendant to tell his side of the story to the jury, whereas the accuser is simply stuck with giving evidence by some sort of pre recorded video link. Wouldn't this actually make it easier for the defence to cast doubt on the accuser in some ways?
This has the hallmarks of a stupid idea pushed forward by an amateur Justice Secretary. Next she will be looking at changing the test for conviction from 'beyond reasonable doubt' to a balance of probabilities test. Because we all agree we need to get the conviction rate up and thats the main thing, right?
God Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?0 -
I see former SNP leader Jim Sillars has said he would be forced to vote against independence if it meant Scotland staying in the EU, given over a 1/3 of SNP voters voted Leave that may not be an isolated statementfoxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/
0 -
Sometimes it can be electorally helpful having a europhile leader with a slightly more eurosceptic partner - worked for Blair and Brown/Balls. They will think it through, I reckon. I hope they do it. It's time for Scotland to strike out into the world.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.0 -
It is not shambolic, it is just implementing what the electorate voted for, namely border control and May will comfortably beat Corbyn on that platform. If that is implemented and immigration is brought under control over the next few years it is possible to imagine, say Chuka Umunna leading Labour back to power in 2025 on a platform of rejoining the EEA but we will have to have the border controls first. If implemented in 2019 that would also match the transition period Germany, for example, put on Eastern European migration which required work permits from 2004-2011 and which Blair bottledfoxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.0 -
An interesting bit of centrist policy here too. I note that Liz and Nicky did a few Womans day events together:Bojabob said:
Yes, it is quite striking how few cheerleaders she has (compared to Cameron, Blair, Osborne etc). Meanwhile the pro-European centre ground are coalescing - I noticed Blair giving his public support for Ozzy's Evening Standard editorship today. Made me smile.foxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.
https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/8434720117583544340 -
Baked Beans on NaanFrancisUrquhart said:
Tried black beans? With some rice and plantain. Cheap and tasty traditional Cuban peasant food.AndyJS said:I'm eating baked beans quite a lot at the moment, not because I like them but because that's all I can afford just now. Sorry to interrupt all the millionaire talk, lol.
0 -
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/0 -
One further reason that EEa/EFTA might be more than a transitory stage.HYUFD said:
I see former SNP leader Jim Sillars has said he would be forced to vote against independence if it meant Scotland staying in the EU, given over a 1/3 of SNP voters voted Leave that may not be an isolated statementfoxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/0 -
Heh. It's not exactly a novel or exciting idea...Tissue_Price said:
I reckon you could probably raise that off this thread, if it's a good idea and you're willing to pitch it publicly...ThreeQuidder said:If I were completely shameless I would say "we're starting a business and could really use 5 grand in risky investment".
0 -
Yes but we knew that already, what we did not know was that even with the prospect of 'hard Brexit' support for independence would be barely changed from 2014, as the polling still showsBojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
By being subsumed into the EU superstate which is circling the drain.Bojabob said:
Sometimes it can be electorally helpful having a europhile leader with a slightly more eurosceptic partner - worked for Blair and Brown/Balls. They will think it through, I reckon. I hope they do it. It's time for Scotland to strike out into the world.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
Cunning plan Baldrick0 -
This is the first time in a while that I remember the SNP being slightly confused on their message. On the EU and on currency their position is so tortured that their politicians are finding it hard to get out without muddying the waters.
For tactical reasons I can see why Sturgeon announced now. I think it was now or never.
But they were clearly caught short on preparing their campaign and policies, and they are clearly having trouble using the EU as justification for a new indyref while at the same time knowing there must be a membership gap.0 -
I did not mean shambolic over Brexit (though that looks pretty obvious to me) but Mays government just had a shambolic budget, disagreements about expanding selective education, but also over handholding Trump, and a number of other policies. Not a very safe pair of hands at all.HYUFD said:
It is not shambolic, it is just implementing what the electorate voted for, namely border control and May will comfortably beat Corbyn on that platform. If that is implemented and immigration is brought under control over the next few years it is possible to imagine, say Chuka Umunna leading Labour back to power in 2025 on a platform of rejoining the EEA but we will have to have the border controls first. If implemented in 2019 that would also match the transition period Germany, for example, put on Eastern European migration which required work permits from 2004-2011 and which Blair bottledfoxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.0 -
interesting. Yes, many of the Remain campaign were apparently surprised by just how well they got on with each other. If the political world was sensible, Morgan, Liz and Clegg would be in the same party.foxinsoxuk said:
An interesting bit of centrist policy here too. I note that Liz and Nicky did a few Womans day events together:Bojabob said:
Yes, it is quite striking how few cheerleaders she has (compared to Cameron, Blair, Osborne etc). Meanwhile the pro-European centre ground are coalescing - I noticed Blair giving his public support for Ozzy's Evening Standard editorship today. Made me smile.foxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.
https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/8434720117583544340 -
I am not sure even that would satisfy some Leave nationalists, EFTA maybe but certainly not EEAfoxinsoxuk said:
One further reason that EEa/EFTA might be more than a transitory stage.HYUFD said:
I see former SNP leader Jim Sillars has said he would be forced to vote against independence if it meant Scotland staying in the EU, given over a 1/3 of SNP voters voted Leave that may not be an isolated statementfoxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/0 -
I am sure Sir Edward's corpse will be relieved to hear he is being cleared and will not be dug up to face trialTheScreamingEagles said:
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/0 -
It's not a priority for lots of people, leavers or otherwise.Bojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.
Scexit fans are like remainers on steroids - keep voting until you get the result you want.0 -
Liz Kendalls family were LD councillors, so the apple doesn't fall far from the tree.Bojabob said:
interesting. Yes, many of the Remain campaign were apparently surprised by just how well they got on with each other. If the political world was sensible, Morgan, Liz and Clegg would be in the same party.foxinsoxuk said:
An interesting bit of centrist policy here too. I note that Liz and Nicky did a few Womans day events together:Bojabob said:
Yes, it is quite striking how few cheerleaders she has (compared to Cameron, Blair, Osborne etc). Meanwhile the pro-European centre ground are coalescing - I noticed Blair giving his public support for Ozzy's Evening Standard editorship today. Made me smile.foxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.
https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/8434720117583544340 -
Sweet spot it is. They will offer EEA plus a referendum on EU+Euro reentry I reckon, after 5-10 years. And that will be good enough for most pro-Indy eurosceptics.foxinsoxuk said:
One further reason that EEa/EFTA might be more than a transitory stage.HYUFD said:
I see former SNP leader Jim Sillars has said he would be forced to vote against independence if it meant Scotland staying in the EU, given over a 1/3 of SNP voters voted Leave that may not be an isolated statementfoxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/0 -
Is there any real difference left now between Osborneites and Blairites?foxinsoxuk said:
An interesting bit of centrist policy here too. I note that Liz and Nicky did a few Womans day events together:Bojabob said:
Yes, it is quite striking how few cheerleaders she has (compared to Cameron, Blair, Osborne etc). Meanwhile the pro-European centre ground are coalescing - I noticed Blair giving his public support for Ozzy's Evening Standard editorship today. Made me smile.foxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.
https://twitter.com/leicesterliz/status/8434720117583544340 -
They probably said that about the wheel as well.ThreeQuidder said:
Heh. It's not exactly a novel or exciting idea...Tissue_Price said:
I reckon you could probably raise that off this thread, if it's a good idea and you're willing to pitch it publicly...ThreeQuidder said:If I were completely shameless I would say "we're starting a business and could really use 5 grand in risky investment".
And look how much trouble that got us into.0 -
foxinsoxuk
Unlike Sean B I heard the Salmond Radio 5 interview which was very informative and perfectly compatible with the Sturgeon one with Sophie Ridge who is nothing like as good or experiences an interviewer as John Pienaar.
Firstly the SNP needs Salmond to handle the London interviewers. He is the one person they are frightened of trying to patronise because he knows his stuff backwards,forwards.
He made the point that, unlike last time, the referendum would take place with the UK and therefore Scotland leaving the UK. The last time negotiations would take place from within the EU. Therefore the key matter is to ensure continuity within the single marketplace which could be achieved through EFTA/EEA. Nicola said that SNP policy is to seek EU membership but many countries have used the EEA as a waiting room for EU membership. Thus it is perfectly alligned with what Salmond said.
Salmond pointed out that last time round the SNP had pursued a policy of a currency union with England but that it was vetoed by "the new editor of The London Standard!" He pointed out that no-one could stop Scotland using sterling as an internationally tradeable currency, as had been admitted by Alistair Darling, and that both Norway and Iceland had their own currencies while Liechtenstein shared the Swiss Franc.
His main point was that it was a bit daft saying these arrangements were not possible when they are in use elsewhere.
Finally Keiran I don't think you mean to sound patronising but you do. The SNP thinking is a model of clarity compared to the BREXIT plans of May/Davies. They will have to have their proposition finalised in time for a referendum not now and they shall do that.0 -
A joke. Dangerous. And based on foolish sentimentality.TheScreamingEagles said:
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/
What is needed is rigorous, effective investigation, a well funded and competent forensic service (that too has been gutted with adverse consequences for us all), an effective judicial process based on long-standing and fundamental principles coupled with politicians who stand up for the rule of law not treat it like a product in a factory.
If only.......
0 -
They were miles behind at the start of the Indy I campaign. I have said already that No is the value bet in Indy II, but Yes is very winnable.HYUFD said:
Yes but we knew that already, what we did not know was that even with the prospect of 'hard Brexit' support for independence would be barely changed from 2014, as the polling still showsBojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
Here's hoping!Cyclefree said:
A joke. Dangerous. And based on foolish sentimentality.TheScreamingEagles said:
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/
What is needed is rigorous, effective investigation, a well funded and competent forensic service (that too has been gutted with adverse consequences for us all), an effective judicial process based on long-standing and fundamental principles coupled with politicians who stand up for the rule of law not treat it like a product in a factory.
If only.......
Night all0 -
It was a shocking waste of taxpayers' money.HYUFD said:
I am sure Sir Edward's corpse will be relieved to hear he is being cleared and will not be dug up to face trialTheScreamingEagles said:
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/0 -
I am sure that the SNP would have a post independance referendum on an EU application that would keep all sides happy.Bojabob said:
Sweet spot it is. They will offer EEA plus a referendum on EU+Euro reentry I reckon, after 5-10 years. And that will be good enough for most pro-Indy eurosceptics.foxinsoxuk said:
One further reason that EEa/EFTA might be more than a transitory stage.HYUFD said:
I see former SNP leader Jim Sillars has said he would be forced to vote against independence if it meant Scotland staying in the EU, given over a 1/3 of SNP voters voted Leave that may not be an isolated statementfoxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/jim-sillars-i-wont-vote-yes-independence-means-rejoining-eu/
While there are some anti EU Scottish Nationalists, there are far more pro EU Unionists.0 -
It was backbenchers who put paid to the NI rise, selective education is supported by the vast majority of Tories apart from Cameroon diehards and Trump is the most powerful man on the planet, it would be rude to ignore his helping handfoxinsoxuk said:
I did not mean shambolic over Brexit (though that looks pretty obvious to me) but Mays government just had a shambolic budget, disagreements about expanding selective education, but also over handholding Trump, and a number of other policies. Not a very safe pair of hands at all.HYUFD said:
It is not shambolic, it is just implementing what the electorate voted for, namely border control and May will comfortably beat Corbyn on that platform. If that is implemented and immigration is brought under control over the next few years it is possible to imagine, say Chuka Umunna leading Labour back to power in 2025 on a platform of rejoining the EEA but we will have to have the border controls first. If implemented in 2019 that would also match the transition period Germany, for example, put on Eastern European migration which required work permits from 2004-2011 and which Blair bottledfoxinsoxuk said:
After a period of Hard Brexit, I can see rUK rejoining the EEA in a few years. Its not going to happen under May, but may well do so under the next governmentBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
It is only the hopelessness of Labour that is making May look passable, in reality her regime is shambolic. It is not going to end well.0 -
In the year of our Lord 2016, patriots of Britain, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef. They fought like warrior poets. They fought like Britons. And won their freedom.Floater said:
It's not a priority for lots of people, leavers or otherwise.Bojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.
Scexit fans are like remainers on steroids - keep voting until you get the result you want.0 -
The SNP got 45% in the 2011 Holyrood elections, Yes got 45% in the 2014 referendum, that was the best guide. In 2016 the SNP got 47%, still not enough for independenceBojabob said:
They were miles behind at the start of the Indy I campaign. I have said already that No is the value bet in Indy II, but Yes is very winnable.HYUFD said:
Yes but we knew that already, what we did not know was that even with the prospect of 'hard Brexit' support for independence would be barely changed from 2014, as the polling still showsBojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
Indeed, just as well he has no close family around either to be put through it allCyclefree said:
It was a shocking waste of taxpayers' money.HYUFD said:
I am sure Sir Edward's corpse will be relieved to hear he is being cleared and will not be dug up to face trialTheScreamingEagles said:
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/0 -
Nothing is more likely to fire up enthusiasm for independance more than a second rate English Tory telling the Scots they cannot have a referendum. It is chucking petrol on a smouldering fire.SeanT said:
No, he didn't. He said they could be in the EEA for a while, who knows how long, and others have said this could be the endpoint - they are all over the place.foxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
Brexit, as predicted on here, has fucked the SNP vis-a-vis one of their main positions: independence "in Europe".
As Sturgeon candidly said today on TV, becoming indy will be much harder AFTER the entire UK quits the EU. Sadly, for her, that is about to happen, whatever she wants. The UK will leave the EU. She can't stop this. It is done. Westminster will not grant a referendum beforehand.
In 2020 or 2021 Scotland MAY be asked to think again. Who knows.
Signing off now until next Sunday. Lent is back at midnight.0 -
UK elections don't count all of a sudden?HYUFD said:
The SNP got 45% in the 2011 Holyrood elections, Yes got 45% in the 2014 referendum, that was the best guide. In 2016 the SNP got 47%, still not enough for independenceBojabob said:
They were miles behind at the start of the Indy I campaign. I have said already that No is the value bet in Indy II, but Yes is very winnable.HYUFD said:
Yes but we knew that already, what we did not know was that even with the prospect of 'hard Brexit' support for independence would be barely changed from 2014, as the polling still showsBojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
Hmm, so the length of comments on a subject correlates to anxiety about it? Let me just think about that one.SeanT said:
The tedious length of your comment is closely correlated with your anxiety, and, perhaps, your despair.scotslass said:foxinsoxuk
Unlike Sean B I heard the Salmond Radio 5 interview which was very informative and perfectly compatible with the Sturgeon one with Sophie Ridge who is nothing like as good or experiences an interviewer as John Pienaar.
Firstly the SNP needs Salmond to handle the London interviewers. He is the one person they are frightened of trying to patronise because he knows his stuff backwards,forwards.
He made the point that, unlike last time, the referendum would take place with the UK and therefore Scotland leaving the UK. The last time negotiations would take place from within the EU. Therefore the key matter is to ensure continuity within the single marketplace which could be achieved through EFTA/EEA. Nicola said that SNP policy is to seek EU membership but many countries have used the EEA as a waiting room for EU membership. Thus it is perfectly alligned with what Salmond said.
Salmond pointed out that last time round the SNP had pursued a policy of a currency union with England but that it was vetoed by "the new editor of The London Standard!" He pointed out that no-one could stop Scotland using sterling as an internationally tradeable currency, as had been admitted by Alistair Darling, and that both Norway and Iceland had their own currencies while Liechtenstein shared the Swiss Franc.
His main point was that it was a bit daft saying these arrangements were not possible when they are in use elsewhere.
Finally Keiran I don't think you mean to sound patronising but you do. The SNP thinking is a model of clarity compared to the BREXIT plans of May/Davies. They will have to have their proposition finalised in time for a referendum not now and they shall do that.0 -
I would have said is he really comparing turnout in Holyrood elections to the impressive turnout in the first Indyref, but then I'm sure he'll be able to find a sub-sample to support his view.Theuniondivvie said:
UK elections don't count all of a sudden?HYUFD said:
The SNP got 45% in the 2011 Holyrood elections, Yes got 45% in the 2014 referendum, that was the best guide. In 2016 the SNP got 47%, still not enough for independenceBojabob said:
They were miles behind at the start of the Indy I campaign. I have said already that No is the value bet in Indy II, but Yes is very winnable.HYUFD said:
Yes but we knew that already, what we did not know was that even with the prospect of 'hard Brexit' support for independence would be barely changed from 2014, as the polling still showsBojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
The SNP got 4.7% there.Theuniondivvie said:
UK elections don't count all of a sudden?HYUFD said:
The SNP got 45% in the 2011 Holyrood elections, Yes got 45% in the 2014 referendum, that was the best guide. In 2016 the SNP got 47%, still not enough for independenceBojabob said:
They were miles behind at the start of the Indy I campaign. I have said already that No is the value bet in Indy II, but Yes is very winnable.HYUFD said:
Yes but we knew that already, what we did not know was that even with the prospect of 'hard Brexit' support for independence would be barely changed from 2014, as the polling still showsBojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
At least he didn't spend any money on a special chair for it!SeanT said:
Well, look on the brightside, at least you haven't had sex for the last ten-to-fifteen years, so another four weeks of enforced celibacy shouldn't be too painfulfoxinsoxuk said:
Nothing is more likely to fire up enthusiasm for independance more than a second rate English Tory telling the Scots they cannot have a referendum. It is chucking petrol on a smouldering fire.SeanT said:
No, he didn't. He said they could be in the EEA for a while, who knows how long, and others have said this could be the endpoint - they are all over the place.foxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
Brexit, as predicted on here, has fucked the SNP vis-a-vis one of their main positions: independence "in Europe".
As Sturgeon candidly said today on TV, becoming indy will be much harder AFTER the entire UK quits the EU. Sadly, for her, that is about to happen, whatever she wants. The UK will leave the EU. She can't stop this. It is done. Westminster will not grant a referendum beforehand.
In 2020 or 2021 Scotland MAY be asked to think again. Who knows.
Signing off now until next Sunday. Lent is back at midnight.0 -
Liz is easy to get on with in any case - one of the side-effects of the Labour leadership campaign was the genuine friendship that she developed with Corbyn. Just a nice person - sometimes these things transcend political differences.Bojabob said:
interesting. Yes, many of the Remain campaign were apparently surprised by just how well they got on with each other. If the political world was sensible, Morgan, Liz and Clegg would be in the same party.0 -
Yet Panelbase today had No 12% aheadfoxinsoxuk said:
Nothing is more likely to fire up enthusiasm for independance more than a second rate English Tory telling the Scots they cannot have a referendum. It is chucking petrol on a smouldering fire.SeanT said:
No, he didn't. He said they could be in the EEA for a while, who knows how long, and others have said this could be the endpoint - they are all over the place.foxinsoxuk said:
No, the interview was much more nuanced than that. Salmond stated unequivocally that the SNP policy was to have an independent Scotland in the EU. The discussion of EEA/EFTA was about how that would happen in practice.SeanT said:
All very good, but, ah, Nicola said today that she is determined on EU membershipBojabob said:
Evening Fox. I didn't hear the interview but am inclined to agree that EEA/EFTA is the sweet spot for Scotland. Currency wise, I would suggest a Scots Pound pegged to Sterling (or the Euro??). Similar to Danish Krone etc. I'm not 100% convinced about the inevitablity of currency speculators breaking the peg.foxinsoxuk said:I was listening to Alex Salmond on 5Live this AM. He was speaking of an Independent Scotland in the single market as an EFTA/EEA member as an interim. It could well be a long term interim, and as most Scottish Unionist politicians were Remainers not a particularly divisive one. I could see it working well for them.
I think Scotland will vote to leave the Union this time, and May will find it imposssible to stop.
http://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-scotland-will-keep-the-pound-and-apply-for-full-eu-membership-10807681
And also keep the pound at the same time? Oh-kay......... Meanwhile Alex says they'll be in EFTA? So,er, what? What's going on?
I reckon they've fucked this up. Sturgeon and Salmond have finally disagreed, and the SNP have made their first humongous mistake in quite a while.
Brexit, as predicted on here, has fucked the SNP vis-a-vis one of their main positions: independence "in Europe".
As Sturgeon candidly said today on TV, becoming indy will be much harder AFTER the entire UK quits the EU. Sadly, for her, that is about to happen, whatever she wants. The UK will leave the EU. She can't stop this. It is done. Westminster will not grant a referendum beforehand.
In 2020 or 2021 Scotland MAY be asked to think again. Who knows.
Signing off now until next Sunday. Lent is back at midnight.0 -
Heath was cremated and his ashes are interred at Salisbury Cathedral.HYUFD said:
I am sure Sir Edward's corpse will be relieved to hear he is being cleared and will not be dug up to face trialTheScreamingEagles said:
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/0 -
UK elections were sending a message to Westminster and even there, their high watermark, the SNP got exactly 50%, not 51%Theuniondivvie said:
UK elections don't count all of a sudden?HYUFD said:
The SNP got 45% in the 2011 Holyrood elections, Yes got 45% in the 2014 referendum, that was the best guide. In 2016 the SNP got 47%, still not enough for independenceBojabob said:
They were miles behind at the start of the Indy I campaign. I have said already that No is the value bet in Indy II, but Yes is very winnable.HYUFD said:
Yes but we knew that already, what we did not know was that even with the prospect of 'hard Brexit' support for independence would be barely changed from 2014, as the polling still showsBojabob said:Hyufd
Yes, it's the latter part that should worry unionists. Keeping Scotland in the union is not a priority for Leavers - it's a movement being driven by English nationalism.0 -
Interesting. Any indication of who might be up for it?TheWhiteRabbit said:In the Netherlands, the Dutch PvdA - the big losers last week having been junior coalition members under Rutte - have ruled out any role in government.
Betfair moves a little. I must admit having suggested laying at 1/33 (i.e. to get 33/1) on Rutte to be PM, the actual odds I got were worse than that but the 1.06/7 now available is zero value for me. A good return though if you did lay at 1/33.0 -
Well I am sure his ashes will be very relieved they are not to be transferred to the Old Bailey!justin124 said:
Heath was cremated and his ashes are interred at Salisbury Cathedral.HYUFD said:
I am sure Sir Edward's corpse will be relieved to hear he is being cleared and will not be dug up to face trialTheScreamingEagles said:
The whole investigations and prosecutions of sexual crimes in this country is a joke.Cyclefree said:
No - it is an attack on the very principle of innocent until proven guilty and that it is for the prosecution to prove its case and its case must be tested vigorously before a jury. The evidence and credibility of the alleged victim is critical to that. And that is more important than making the alleged victim feel less traumatised. Justice is not primarily about therapy. It's about making sure that the right result is reached on the evidence. Someone should not be convicted on the basis of evidence which cannot be challenged and tested in the same way as other evidence. Just because the defendant is a man does not make him less entitled to the protections of the law. It is precisely because the crime is a vile one that we should not lower our standards and aim for quick and easy convictions at the expense of justice.
Gid Almighty! Have we learnt nothing from the endless miscarriages of justice there have been over the years?
The £1 million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.....
...Chief Constable Mike Veale will come under pressure to resign if his force fails to justify the investigation. Reports claimed he believed “120 per cent” the former prime minister was guilty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/0 -
Sean T
I would have thought that resorting to being being offensive (which you invariably are) would be more closely related to a range of deep difficulties inferiority, uncertainty, fear of being found out etc etc many of which you frequently admit to.
I don't know if you have any problems with length.0
