politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

MarkSenior said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Labour polled much worse in the NEV than the polls suggested.

And its NEV which matters not actual votes.

I think all Mark is suggesting is that, to compare how parties are doing relative to 2013 and 2009, we look at vote share changes on a like for like basis. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

Certainly.

But I prefer to do so on a NEV basis.

It is after all the basis upon which they're reported:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

The problem with looking at actual vote chares is that not every year has the same set of elections.

The calculation of NEV relies on there being a number of wards being fought that are representative of the country as a whole . That is not possible in 2009/2013 and 2017 and so makes the comparison of NEV with other years more inaccurate . Looking at actual vote shares will give us an almost completely accurate comparison for this May with 2009 and 2013

Clearly it is possible to estimate NEV because people do so.

This is from the BBC in 2009:

' According to the BBC projections, Labour's share of the national vote has fallen by three points since 2004 to 23%, behind the Tories on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 28%. '

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8085558.stm

and this is from the House of Commons research paper:

' Estimates suggest that the Conservatives won 35% of the national equivalent share of the
vote, Liberal Democrats 25% and Labour 22%. '

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP09-54/RP09-54.pdf

this from John Curtice:

' When projected into the equivalent of a national share of the vote, Labour's performance was worth no more than 23 per cent, one point down on last year. '

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-curtice-a-sign-of-labours-weakness-more-than-the-tories-strength-1698140.html

and this is from Profs Rallings and Thrasher:

https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English Local Elections Update - PSA Media Briefing Pack.pdf

Now you can argue about the accuracy of their work but NEV still remains the only realistic way of comparing one set of local elections to another.

another_richard said:

At what point does having a lower tax on high earners generate less money for the government ?

In 2012 a HMRC doc said there was basically no difference in total tax take between 45% and 50% upper rate (after people adjust to the new rate). That's where they think the top of the curve is.

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

I presume it is a subsample?

I guess it must be. I look forward to the usual suspects defending its veracity.

The quantum state of Scottish sub samples is of great amusement.

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

I presume it is a subsample?

I guess it must be. I look forward to the usual suspects defending its veracity.

The quantum state of Scottish sub samples is of great amusement.

Of course it makes it more likely as it makes a second referendum more likely.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

I presume it is a subsample?

I guess it must be. I look forward to the usual suspects defending its veracity.

The quantum state of Scottish sub samples is of great amusement.

Of course it makes it more likely as it makes a second referendum more likely.

Indy reporting a sub sample of 187

another_richard said:

MarkSenior said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Labour polled much worse in the NEV than the polls suggested.

And its NEV which matters not actual votes.

I think all Mark is suggesting is that, to compare how parties are doing relative to 2013 and 2009, we look at vote share changes on a like for like basis. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

Certainly.

But I prefer to do so on a NEV basis.

It is after all the basis upon which they're reported:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2013

The problem with looking at actual vote chares is that not every year has the same set of elections.

The calculation of NEV relies on there being a number of wards being fought that are representative of the country as a whole . That is not possible in 2009/2013 and 2017 and so makes the comparison of NEV with other years more inaccurate . Looking at actual vote shares will give us an almost completely accurate comparison for this May with 2009 and 2013

Clearly it is possible to estimate NEV because people do so.

This is from the BBC in 2009:

' According to the BBC projections, Labour's share of the national vote has fallen by three points since 2004 to 23%, behind the Tories on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 28%. '

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8085558.stm

and this is from the House of Commons research paper:

' Estimates suggest that the Conservatives won 35% of the national equivalent share of the
vote, Liberal Democrats 25% and Labour 22%. '

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP09-54/RP09-54.pdf

this from John Curtice:

' When projected into the equivalent of a national share of the vote, Labour's performance was worth no more than 23 per cent, one point down on last year. '

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-curtice-a-sign-of-labours-weakness-more-than-the-tories-strength-1698140.html

and this is from Profs Rallings and Thrasher:

https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English Local Elections Update - PSA Media Briefing Pack.pdf

Now you can argue about the accuracy of their work but NEV still remains the only realistic way of comparing one set of local elections to another.

Yes of course it is possible to estimate NEV , I can have a go at it so can you . In CC years it is much more difficult hence the differences between the BBC estimate and R andTs estimate in 2009 both of which you quote

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

I presume it is a subsample?

I guess it must be. I look forward to the usual suspects defending its veracity.

The quantum state of Scottish sub samples is of great amusement.

Of course it makes it more likely as it makes a second referendum more likely.

Indy reporting a sub sample of 187

Correction - 185 out of 2026

Mr. Rentool, quite.

If your all-powerful superbeing can't take having the piss taken, then he's more sodding delicate than Nero [very counter-intuitively, Nero never punished any satirist who mocked him. Given he used to roam the streets at night beating people up at random, and lopped the goolies from a chap, whom he then married, this is quite odd].

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alistair said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Superb from the Irish. England have never quite got it right. It was a grand slam blowout in Dublin that was the making of England World Cup winning team, though. This is where Jones really starts to earn his money.

England have only played really well in one game - Scotland. They arguably deserved to lose against Wales and France. Even Italy troubled them.

They didn't deserve the Slam.

League table doesn't lie...

Yes, everyone else was shiter than England.

“It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f*cking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just w*nkers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by w*nkers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f*cking difference!”

That's not the type of Trainspotting reference we usually get from you, Sunil

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rentool, quite.

If your all-powerful superbeing can't take having the piss taken, then he's more sodding delicate than Nero [very counter-intuitively, Nero never punished any satirist who mocked him. Given he used to roam the streets at night beating people up at random, and lopped the goolies from a chap, whom he then married, this is quite odd].

As your life depends on it, though, don't mock middle aged men who are going bald. 2 Kings 2, 24 records the fate of some naughty children who made fun of Elijah. What happened to them wasn't pleasant.

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.

Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.

Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU

Not seen that, sounds hilarious

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.

Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.

Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU

The 47/44 result is based on a sub-sample.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sandpit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Alistair said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Superb from the Irish. England have never quite got it right. It was a grand slam blowout in Dublin that was the making of England World Cup winning team, though. This is where Jones really starts to earn his money.

England have only played really well in one game - Scotland. They arguably deserved to lose against Wales and France. Even Italy troubled them.

They didn't deserve the Slam.

League table doesn't lie...

Yes, everyone else was shiter than England.

“It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f*cking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just w*nkers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by w*nkers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f*cking difference!”

That's not the type of Trainspotting reference we usually get from you, Sunil

Should I invade Scotland? I visited Carlisle station on Thursday and Berwick station on Tuesday

If Scotland did go independent, I wonder what rolling stock they would claim ownership off? Would they claim any Pendolinos, HSTs, Voyagers and IC225s? Or Would they just ask for the ScotRail and Caledonian Sleeper stock as these franchises are leased by Transport Scotland?

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.

Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.

Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU

The 47/44 result is based on a sub-sample.

It's quite funny that you're telling that to HYUFD.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39314250

Ben Belgacem arrived at the airport and attacked the military patrol in the south terminal.
He tried to seize the servicewoman's automatic weapon, put his gun to her head and said: "I'm here to die for Allah. In any case people are going to die." He was then shot dead by two other soldiers.

Thought this was only the kind of mistake that movie villains made.

As Tuco said, "When you have to shoot, shoot; don't talk!"

I sometimes wonder how screwed over we'd be if we faced competent terrorists. Do they think that tough-nuts from the SAS or Action Division engage in self-justificatory quasi-philosophical announcements before depressing the trigger?

I imagine a lot of these guys watch too many movies and are "acting out" their role, rather than taking it seriously in a manner which involves total commitment and thorough training or preparation. That's a big plus for the rest of us, but what's going to happen if they stop cocking around?

AndyJS said:

UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.

I expect most of the UKIP loss will go to the Lib Dems with some to the Conservatives , there are 3 seats in Eastleigh for example which will go back to the Lib Dems . .

Cyan said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.

Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.

Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU

This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...

Not the EU maybe but Sturgeon will certainly at least aim for the EEA to begin with

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39314250

Ben Belgacem arrived at the airport and attacked the military patrol in the south terminal.
He tried to seize the servicewoman's automatic weapon, put his gun to her head and said: "I'm here to die for Allah. In any case people are going to die." He was then shot dead by two other soldiers.

Thought this was only the kind of mistake that movie villains made.

As Tuco said, "When you have to shoot, shoot; don't talk!"

I sometimes wonder how screwed over we'd be if we faced competent terrorists. Do they think that tough-nuts from the SAS or Action Division engage in self-justificatory quasi-philosophical announcements before depressing the trigger?

I imagine a lot of these guys watch too many movies and are "acting out" their role, rather than taking it seriously in a manner which involves total commitment and thorough training or preparation. That's a big plus for the rest of us, but what's going to happen if they stop cocking around?

I think that's correct. Competent assassins do the job with a minimum of fuss.

UK grime rap lyricism blows American rap out of the water........just thought I'd let you guys know......

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

MyBurningEars said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39314250

Ben Belgacem arrived at the airport and attacked the military patrol in the south terminal.
He tried to seize the servicewoman's automatic weapon, put his gun to her head and said: "I'm here to die for Allah. In any case people are going to die." He was then shot dead by two other soldiers.

Thought this was only the kind of mistake that movie villains made.

As Tuco said, "When you have to shoot, shoot; don't talk!"

I sometimes wonder how screwed over we'd be if we faced competent terrorists. Do they think that tough-nuts from the SAS or Action Division engage in self-justificatory quasi-philosophical announcements before depressing the trigger?

I imagine a lot of these guys watch too many movies and are "acting out" their role, rather than taking it seriously in a manner which involves total commitment and thorough training or preparation. That's a big plus for the rest of us, but what's going to happen if they stop cocking around?

I think that's correct. Competent assassins do the job with a minimum of fuss.

I had lunch with a friend yesterday, who does major jobs in security. He's just been out in Iraq, five miles north of Mosul. Serious shit. He showed me a photo of an ISIS drone that dropped a home made grenade near his car. Very cleverly improvised. The drones come in swarms. Terrifying.

He says that ISIS are losing, and will soon be technically defeated on the ground.

But the fighters are shaving their beards. Many are melting into the local population, aiming to start a new insurgency once Raqqa and Mosul have gone.

And plenty of them are heading back to Europe. And they are definitely *competent*

I wonder how many of the thousands of European citizens who made it to the Islamic State have survived and will make it back. Intelligence services could be busy for decades to come with that lot.

Also, the extent of radicalisation in French and Belgian jails (amongst others) is apparently even worse than the situation in Britain. It's as if they have constructed radicalisation factories, and then shipped thousands of their most vulnerable, yet anti-social and ethically "flexible", folk right into them. That will surely come at a high future price.

Mr. T, that reminds me that about a year ago, Trevor Phillips had an interesting documentary for Channel 4, which analysed anonymous polling of British Muslims.

Mr. Ears, a fair point. I was being a bit too glib.

Anyway, my eyes are going fuzzy so the time to leave the computer has arrived.

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.

I expect most of the UKIP loss will go to the Lib Dems with some to the Conservatives , there are 3 seats in Eastleigh for example which will go back to the Lib Dems . .

The LDs ought to be expecting major gains in some of the Remain county council areas like Oxfordshire and some parts of Hampshire and Sussex.

French presidential candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan tonight walked out of a TV interview on TF1 in protest against its refusal to invite him to Monday's debate.

All 11 candidates have been invited to TV debates on 4 and 20 April.

https://youtu.be/WrUJoRqh9Oc

SeanT said:

In the comments BTL on that Breitbart piece there is a brilliant quote, apparently from G K Chesterton, on Islam.

I've never read it before. Quite something:

"There is in Islam a paradox which is perhaps a permanent menace. The great creed born in the desert creates a kind of ecstasy of the very emptiness of its own land, and even, one may say, out of the emptiness of its own theology. . . .

"A void is made in the heart of Islam which has to be filled up again and again by a mere repetition of the revolution that founded it. There are no sacraments; the only thing that can happen is a sort of apocalypse, as unique as the end of the world; so the apocalypse can only be repeated and the world end again and again. There are no priests; and yet this equality can only breed a multitude of lawless prophets almost as numerous as priests. The very dogma that there is only one Mahomet produces an endless procession of Mahomets"

Very interesting indeed. I'll have to read more of Chesterton.

AndyJS said:

MarkSenior said:

AndyJS said:

UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.

I expect most of the UKIP loss will go to the Lib Dems with some to the Conservatives , there are 3 seats in Eastleigh for example which will go back to the Lib Dems . .

The LDs ought to be expecting major gains in some of the Remain county council areas like Oxfordshire and some parts of Hampshire and Sussex.

True , the vote shares in all council by elections since Nov 1st ONLY in areas with elections on May 4th are
Con 39%
Lab 19%
LDem 25%
UKIP 8%
Green 3%
Others 6%

The UKIP vote drop has gone rather more to the Lib Dems than the Conservatives

GeoffM said:

williamglenn said:

There's a German petition to allow Scotland to remain in the EU if it votes for independence. In itself not significant, but it does suggest that the level of visibility and goodwill will be on a different scale to last time.

https://you.wemove.eu/campaigns/schottland-bleibt

Or that Scot expats live in Berlin as well as Bath.

Wings over Berlin opening soon?

Watching Paul Nuttall in "Bottom" on Dave Channel right now

williamglenn said:

There's a German petition to allow Scotland to remain in the EU if it votes for independence. In itself not significant, but it does suggest that the level of visibility and goodwill will be on a different scale to last time.

https://you.wemove.eu/campaigns/schottland-bleibt

The Catalans and Basques especially so

Secret tape reveals Momentum plot to seize control of Labour

A hard-left plot by supporters of Jeremy Corbyn to seize permanent control of the Labour party and consolidate their power by formally joining forces with the super-union Unite can be revealed by the Observer.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/18/secret-tape-reveals-momentum-plot-to-link-with-unite-seize-control-of-labour

AndyJS said:

UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.

Hmmm

UKIP gains in 2013 of 139 - they could lose say half this time - are going to be subsumed into the Tory vs Lab numbers, i.e. "is Jeremy really that crap?" which is a battle over 300 seats.

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

In the comments BTL on that Breitbart piece there is a brilliant quote, apparently from G K Chesterton, on Islam.

I've never read it before. Quite something:

"There is in Islam a paradox which is perhaps a permanent menace. The great creed born in the desert creates a kind of ecstasy of the very emptiness of its own land, and even, one may say, out of the emptiness of its own theology. . . .

"A void is made in the heart of Islam which has to be filled up again and again by a mere repetition of the revolution that founded it. There are no sacraments; the only thing that can happen is a sort of apocalypse, as unique as the end of the world; so the apocalypse can only be repeated and the world end again and again. There are no priests; and yet this equality can only breed a multitude of lawless prophets almost as numerous as priests. The very dogma that there is only one Mahomet produces an endless procession of Mahomets"

G K Chesterton? Surprised you quote such a second rate author.

He's better than BEN OKRI.

While jahadi jez is f##king useless and in the short term no opposition is not good, the hard left taking over labour is really worrying. I feel like an early GE could solve a lot of problems.

1) may gets a mandidate

2) corbyn goes, hopefully replaced by somebody who can provide leadership

3) new leader also stops the hard left taking over.

https://twitter.com/familyunequal/status/842914584218492928

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyan said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.

Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.

Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU

This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...

The EU has accepted members where entry into the Euro is many decades away.

That was before the euro went tits up. Less keen now.

Do you ever get hilariously abusive reviews or e-mails from unhappy readers?

I loved one that Joe Abercrombie proudly published. "I've read the Thresh (sic) Law Trilogy, and frankly, what a turd. Do us all a favour and stop writing.". He was especially pleased that the angry reader had bought the trilogy.

Chuck berry dead.

I've been saying that there's a good chance that GO will do a u-turn on the editor job. Wilmslow people aren't very demanding timewise, but they also don't like being disrespected. Are there any odds available on the u-turn?

RIP Chuck Berry. One of the true originals who changed the world.

WTI Crude below $50 again:

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

surbiton said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyan said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.

'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll

Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'

https://tinyurl.com/lcy2ftv

There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.

Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.

Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU

This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...

The EU has accepted members where entry into the Euro is many decades away.

That was before the euro went tits up. Less keen now.

1999: The € is born. £1 = € 1.4067 2017: £1 = 1.1519

We can see which currency went tits up. There is only one devalued currency.

Currencies fluctuate in value. What the Euro did was to generate a wild property boom, followed by a wild property bust, in several European countries.

surbiton said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SeanT said:

Because of the unique way it is funded, the BBC is able to ask the questions other networks are too scared to pose:

https://twitter.com/bbcasiannetwork/status/842672388223483904

Surely the question posed should be "Should there be a punishment for blasphemy?".

How about 'Is there such a thing as blasphemy?'

How about, why the fuck am I, as a BBC licence holder, paying for this revolting quasi-Islamist sharia-law-encouraging shite?

https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/843222658351337476

Why are anti-Islamists always mixing FGM with Islam ? Is it a deliberate strategy ? 99% of Muslims [ Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afganistan....................... ] have never heard of FGM.

Only Upper Egypt, Sudan [ including South Sudan ] and the Horn of Africa where this nasty piece of work gets carried out.

What's your line on "blasphemy" and punishment thereof, surby-baby?

We're so very, very lucky to have them.

https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/843234666513620993

Anyone else hearing 4th May being briefed to Tory MPs as the date for a snap general election?

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

We're so very, very lucky to have them.

https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/843234666513620993

Yes and even if Scotland does go independent you will still have them as the SNP have said they will keep the Queen and her successors as Scotland's Head of State

I'll only believe that when you have a sub sample of 14 from Ecclefechan to back it up.

I don't need a subsample, both Salmond and Sturgeon have said they will keep the Windsors

I Can never work out if surbiton is a bit thick, a poor quality troll or both.