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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Because of the unique way it is funded, the BBC is able to ask the questions other networks are too scared to pose:

    https://twitter.com/bbcasiannetwork/status/842672388223483904

    Surely the question posed should be "Should there be a punishment for blasphemy?".
    How about 'Is there such a thing as blasphemy?'
    How about, why the fuck am I, as a BBC licence holder, paying for this revolting quasi-Islamist sharia-law-encouraging shite?
    https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/843222658351337476
    Why are anti-Islamists always mixing FGM with Islam ? Is it a deliberate strategy ? 99% of Muslims [ Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afganistan....................... ] have never heard of FGM.

    Only Upper Egypt, Sudan [ including South Sudan ] and the Horn of Africa where this nasty piece of work gets carried out.
    What's your line on "blasphemy" and punishment thereof, surby-baby?
    First you need to have sex with your train sets since you have not done the real thing.
    Evidence please?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459

    I Can never work out if surbiton is a bit thick, a poor quality troll or both.

    Both :lol:
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    surbiton said:

    BTW have you found the link to me allegedly saying that "the caste system is a necessary evil"?

    Hint: I never said that.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,459
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We're so very, very lucky to have them.

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/843234666513620993

    Yes and even if Scotland does go independent you will still have them as the SNP have said they will keep the Queen and her successors as Scotland's Head of State
    I'll only believe that when you have a sub sample of 14 from Ecclefechan to back it up.
    I don't need a subsample, both Salmond and Sturgeon have said they will keep the Windsors
    HMQ is a direct descendant of James VI :)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    We're so very, very lucky to have them.

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/843234666513620993

    Yes and even if Scotland does go independent you will still have them as the SNP have said they will keep the Queen and her successors as Scotland's Head of State
    I'll only believe that when you have a sub sample of 14 from Ecclefechan to back it up.
    I don't need a subsample, both Salmond and Sturgeon have said they will keep the Windsors
    HMQ is a direct descendant of James VI :)
    James VIth of Scotland and 1st of England, even more reason for them to keep Elizabeth 11nd and Charles IIIrd
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2017
    India.

    Interesting article placing Nahendra Modi's populism in a historical/global context;

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-13/how-to-understand-modi-s-magical-political-appeal

    "We must grasp that mass politics is often irrational rather than a negotiation between rational interests"

    Depends on how you define rationality, I guess.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2017
    surbiton said:

    SeanT said:

    So surbiton has a point, FGM is absolutely not an Islamic thing, and rarely if ever happens in Islamic countries, as long as one ignores its widespread prevalance in Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Oman, Yemen, Algeria, Chad, Syria, Iran, Kurdistan, Djibouti, Turkey, Mali, Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq, Eritrea, and Jordan. And Pakistan.

    Just make up the numbers. The African countries are probably correct. I doubt if there is any FGM in Saudi Arabia. The rest, there is zero chance whatever your source may say. Like Trump you can quote the social media but that does not make it correct.

    Even Male circumcision is not compulsory [ i.e. it is not prescribed in the Quran ] but 99.9% practice it. As does every male Jew and millions of others.
    I'm pretty sure I've read about FGM in Saudi Arabia from reliable sources. It's also well-known that it's performed very widely in Indonesia, although it's not as "severe" a type as elsewhere.

    For example:

    "FGM in Indonesia hits alarming level

    Half of girls under 11 years old in Indonesia are circumcised, according to the latest finding by UNICEF, raising awareness and calls for bans on female genital mutilation (FGM) practices in the world'€™s most populous Muslim majority country.

    It is the first time the global report has included Indonesia on the list, but the country '€” combined with Egypt and Ethiopia '€” accounts for half of 200 million girls and women in 30 countries that have undergone FGM, the study reveals.

    The inclusion of Indonesia on the list, published on Friday, has raised the tally from 130 million circumcised girls and women in 29 countries estimated in 2014, albeit the study claimed that the prevalence of FGM has fallen significantly."

    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/02/06/fgm-indonesia-hits-alarming-level.html
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    HYUFD/Cyan

    You pair manage a large number of mistakes about the EU/EEA in a small number of posts.

    First the EEA is not the same thing as the customs union eg Norway in the EEA and EFTA but not the customs union. It provides no great impediment to trade with Sweden and none at all to their Common Travel Area. In other words the "threat" to Scottish exports to England is fantasy unless England wanted to give up its second biggest export market after USA!

    Second there is already a country within EFTA/EEA which uses another countries currency - a special accolade for the Political Betting EU experts who can tell me which one it is.

    All of these things being presented as obstacles or impossible are already working examples elsewhere in Europe right now. Gordon Brown's economics sounds like something out of the 1970s! .
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    edited March 2017
    scotslass said:

    HYUFD/Cyan

    You pair manage a large number of mistakes about the EU/EEA in a small number of posts.

    First the EEA is not the same thing as the customs union eg Norway in the EEA and EFTA but not the customs union. It provides no great impediment to trade with Sweden and none at all to their Common Travel Area. In other words the "threat" to Scottish exports to England is fantasy unless England wanted to give up its second biggest export market after USA!

    Second there is already a country within EFTA/EEA which uses another countries currency - a special accolade for the Political Betting EU experts who can tell me which one it is.

    All of these things being presented as obstacles or impossible are already working examples elsewhere in Europe right now. Gordon Brown's economics sounds like something out of the 1970s! .

    Your comparison isn't quite right either as both Norway and Sweden are in the EEA, or Single Market (Sweden through its EU membership). If Scotland ostensibly has a referendum and becomes independent so as to maintain its place in the EU Single Market, its border with South Britain will be much harder than the Norway/Sweden one.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    FF43 said:

    Your comparison isn't quite right either as both Norway and Sweden are in the EEA (Sweden through its EU membership). If Scotland ostensibly has a referendum and becomes independent so as to maintain its place in the EU Single Market, its border with South Britain will be much harder than the Norway/Sweden one.

    It's a very shaky assumption that Brexit would go ahead on anything like the terms that Theresa May has set out if Scotland voted for independence before we left the EU.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    FF43 said:

    Your comparison isn't quite right either as both Norway and Sweden are in the EEA (Sweden through its EU membership). If Scotland ostensibly has a referendum and becomes independent so as to maintain its place in the EU Single Market, its border with South Britain will be much harder than the Norway/Sweden one.

    It's a very shaky assumption that Brexit would go ahead on anything like the terms that Theresa May has set out if Scotland voted for independence before we left the EU.
    Given the ORB poll yesterday that UK-wide voters put Brexit ahead of the risk of Scottish independence it is clearly a correct assumption and even more so given the Mori poll on Friday that 63% of UK wide voters make immigration control a non-negotiable part of the Brexit talks including over 50% of Scots
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    scotslass said:

    HYUFD/Cyan

    You pair manage a large number of mistakes about the EU/EEA in a small number of posts.

    First the EEA is not the same thing as the customs union eg Norway in the EEA and EFTA but not the customs union. It provides no great impediment to trade with Sweden and none at all to their Common Travel Area. In other words the "threat" to Scottish exports to England is fantasy unless England wanted to give up its second biggest export market after USA!

    Second there is already a country within EFTA/EEA which uses another countries currency - a special accolade for the Political Betting EU experts who can tell me which one it is.

    All of these things being presented as obstacles or impossible are already working examples elsewhere in Europe right now. Gordon Brown's economics sounds like something out of the 1970s! .

    Considering Norway is in the Single Market with all four freedoms intact why would it be an impediment?

    The issue is if the UK is out of the Single Market and Scotland in it then how will that be squared?

    The answer if you can be patient is: same as Ireland.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    FF43 said:

    scotslass said:

    HYUFD/Cyan

    You pair manage a large number of mistakes about the EU/EEA in a small number of posts.

    First the EEA is not the same thing as the customs union eg Norway in the EEA and EFTA but not the customs union. It provides no great impediment to trade with Sweden and none at all to their Common Travel Area. In other words the "threat" to Scottish exports to England is fantasy unless England wanted to give up its second biggest export market after USA!

    Second there is already a country within EFTA/EEA which uses another countries currency - a special accolade for the Political Betting EU experts who can tell me which one it is.

    All of these things being presented as obstacles or impossible are already working examples elsewhere in Europe right now. Gordon Brown's economics sounds like something out of the 1970s! .

    Your comparison isn't quite right either as both Norway and Sweden are in the EEA, or Single Market (Sweden through its EU membership). If Scotland ostensibly has a referendum and becomes independent so as to maintain its place in the EU Single Market, its border with South Britain will be much harder than the Norway/Sweden one.
    Exactly right, if the UK leaves the EEA as it will and a hypothetical independent Scotland rejoins the EEA, England will of course have to impose customs duties on all Scottish exports coming into England as it does on the imports of any other EEA nation
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Your comparison isn't quite right either as both Norway and Sweden are in the EEA (Sweden through its EU membership). If Scotland ostensibly has a referendum and becomes independent so as to maintain its place in the EU Single Market, its border with South Britain will be much harder than the Norway/Sweden one.

    It's a very shaky assumption that Brexit would go ahead on anything like the terms that Theresa May has set out if Scotland voted for independence before we left the EU.
    Given the ORB poll yesterday that UK-wide voters put Brexit ahead of the risk of Scottish independence it is clearly a correct assumption and even more so given the Mori poll on Friday that 63% of UK wide voters make immigration control a non-negotiable part of the Brexit talks including over 50% of Scots
    The risk of something and the fact of it happening are two very different concepts.

    If you tried to see past the end of your poll for once you would understand how it would change everything: first and foremost it would be a colossal political failure for May that would fatally wound her.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Anyone else hearing 4th May being briefed to Tory MPs as the date for a snap general election?

    That would require a vote in the House of Commons next week. The last day for a Dissolution would be 27th March - but only possible if Corbyn were to agree to it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Your comparison isn't quite right either as both Norway and Sweden are in the EEA (Sweden through its EU membership). If Scotland ostensibly has a referendum and becomes independent so as to maintain its place in the EU Single Market, its border with South Britain will be much harder than the Norway/Sweden one.

    It's a very shaky assumption that Brexit would go ahead on anything like the terms that Theresa May has set out if Scotland voted for independence before we left the EU.
    Given the ORB poll yesterday that UK-wide voters put Brexit ahead of the risk of Scottish independence it is clearly a correct assumption and even more so given the Mori poll on Friday that 63% of UK wide voters make immigration control a non-negotiable part of the Brexit talks including over 50% of Scots
    The risk of something and the fact of it happening are two very different concepts.

    If you tried to see past the end of your poll for once you would understand how it would change everything: first and foremost it would be a colossal political failure for May that would fatally wound her.
    First of course as the new Panelbase shows Scots still back No and want no imminent indyref2 and second May has a mandate for Brexit which the British people are fully behind her to implement
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    Anyone else hearing 4th May being briefed to Tory MPs as the date for a snap general election?

    That would require a vote in the House of Commons next week. The last day for a Dissolution would be 27th March - but only possible if Corbyn were to agree to it.
    No only possible if some Labour MPs agree to it.

    Considering Corbyn and Labour have called for an election repeatedly they'd be very frit to reject one.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Anyone else hearing 4th May being briefed to Tory MPs as the date for a snap general election?

    That would require a vote in the House of Commons next week. The last day for a Dissolution would be 27th March - but only possible if Corbyn were to agree to it.
    No only possible if some Labour MPs agree to it.

    Considering Corbyn and Labour have called for an election repeatedly they'd be very frit to reject one.
    Corbyn has already rowed back on earlier statements . Highly unlikely he would agree to an early election given present polling background. Equally no Labour MP who wishes to remain the official party candidate would vote for it.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:
    Anyone have Scottish Westminster seats based on the above assuming UNS?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    I don't know who is doing worse in Scotland, Labour or the Lib Dems.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    The £1  million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited March 2017
    surbiton said:



    1999: The € is born. £1 = € 1.4067 2017: £1 = 1.1519

    We can see which currency went tits up. There is only one devalued currency.

    What an economically illiterate comment.
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    KenKen Posts: 24
    edited March 2017
    "Second there is already a country within EFTA/EEA which uses another countries currency - a special accolade for the Political Betting EU experts who can tell me which one it is."

    I suppose that would be Liechtenstein which uses the Swiss franc. It also uses the same national anthem as we do, or at least the same tune.



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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    The £1  million police investigation into allegations that Sir Edward Heath was a paedophile is being wound up amid claims it has found no evidence to justify tarnishing the former prime minister’s reputation.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/18/police-wind-sir-edward-heath-sex-abuse-probe/

    Basically, his crime - the one which he was almost certainly guilty of - was falling out with thatcher.

    Right wing politics is a very dirty business.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited March 2017
    So much for the Green manifesto commitment.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    FF43 said:

    Your comparison isn't quite right either as both Norway and Sweden are in the EEA (Sweden through its EU membership). If Scotland ostensibly has a referendum and becomes independent so as to maintain its place in the EU Single Market, its border with South Britain will be much harder than the Norway/Sweden one.

    It's a very shaky assumption that Brexit would go ahead on anything like the terms that Theresa May has set out if Scotland voted for independence before we left the EU.
    That is where you are wrong, there is not going to be an Indy Ref before Brexit, and if the SNP push it they will lose. What ever the future of Scotland, we are leaving the EU along with the UK, and just a couple years later than had the SNP won the last Indy Ref! Sturgeon loves to talk about the effects of a hard Brexit on the Scottish economy while demanding that Scotland remains in the Common market, but it would be nothing compared to the seismic hard exit she has planned if Scotland leaves the UK market. And that is because its a very shaky assumption that Scotland would get anything like the terms it wants with either the UK or the EU if Scotland voted for Independence.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789

    surbiton said:

    BTW have you found the link to me allegedly saying that "the caste system is a necessary evil"?

    Hint: I never said that.
    Don't bother.

    Surbiton tells lies.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    So, Mrs McTrump won a conference and lost a country......I blame Eck.....
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,718
    What's with the latest topic on vanilla forums? Site hack?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789

    What's with the latest topic on vanilla forums? Site hack?

    Gone already.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    New thread!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,735
    edited March 2017
    Edited
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    So surbiton has a point, FGM is absolutely not an Islamic thing, and rarely if ever happens in Islamic countries, as long as one ignores its widespread prevalance in Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Oman, Yemen, Algeria, Chad, Syria, Iran, Kurdistan, Djibouti, Turkey, Mali, Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq, Eritrea, and Jordan. And Pakistan.

    I haven't read all your links but be careful about interpreting FGM figures. UN FGM figures cover any unnecessary manipulation around female sexual organs. So it covers vile permanent mutilation as well as completely non permanent (if bizarre and weird) things like rubbing with turmeric, pricking with sterile needle or pulsing a low power laser

    http://www.economist.com/news/international/21700631-rite-passage-ranges-symbolic-awful-where-should-line-be-drawn
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    So much for the Green manifesto commitment.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited March 2017
    test
This discussion has been closed.