Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
Labour polled much worse in the NEV than the polls suggested.
And its NEV which matters not actual votes.
I think all Mark is suggesting is that, to compare how parties are doing relative to 2013 and 2009, we look at vote share changes on a like for like basis. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me.
Certainly.
But I prefer to do so on a NEV basis.
It is after all the basis upon which they're reported:
The problem with looking at actual vote chares is that not every year has the same set of elections.
The calculation of NEV relies on there being a number of wards being fought that are representative of the country as a whole . That is not possible in 2009/2013 and 2017 and so makes the comparison of NEV with other years more inaccurate . Looking at actual vote shares will give us an almost completely accurate comparison for this May with 2009 and 2013
Clearly it is possible to estimate NEV because people do so.
This is from the BBC in 2009:
' According to the BBC projections, Labour's share of the national vote has fallen by three points since 2004 to 23%, behind the Tories on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 28%. '
' When projected into the equivalent of a national share of the vote, Labour's performance was worth no more than 23 per cent, one point down on last year. '
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
At what point does having a lower tax on high earners generate less money for the government ?
In 2012 a HMRC doc said there was basically no difference in total tax take between 45% and 50% upper rate (after people adjust to the new rate). That's where they think the top of the curve is.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
Superb from the Irish. England have never quite got it right. It was a grand slam blowout in Dublin that was the making of England World Cup winning team, though. This is where Jones really starts to earn his money.
England have only played really well in one game - Scotland. They arguably deserved to lose against Wales and France. Even Italy troubled them.
They didn't deserve the Slam.
League table doesn't lie...
Yes, everyone else was shiter than England.
“It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f*cking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just w*nkers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by w*nkers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f*cking difference!”
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
Labour polled much worse in the NEV than the polls suggested.
And its NEV which matters not actual votes.
I think all Mark is suggesting is that, to compare how parties are doing relative to 2013 and 2009, we look at vote share changes on a like for like basis. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me.
Certainly.
But I prefer to do so on a NEV basis.
It is after all the basis upon which they're reported:
The problem with looking at actual vote chares is that not every year has the same set of elections.
The calculation of NEV relies on there being a number of wards being fought that are representative of the country as a whole . That is not possible in 2009/2013 and 2017 and so makes the comparison of NEV with other years more inaccurate . Looking at actual vote shares will give us an almost completely accurate comparison for this May with 2009 and 2013
Clearly it is possible to estimate NEV because people do so.
This is from the BBC in 2009:
' According to the BBC projections, Labour's share of the national vote has fallen by three points since 2004 to 23%, behind the Tories on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 28%. '
' When projected into the equivalent of a national share of the vote, Labour's performance was worth no more than 23 per cent, one point down on last year. '
Now you can argue about the accuracy of their work but NEV still remains the only realistic way of comparing one set of local elections to another.
Yes of course it is possible to estimate NEV , I can have a go at it so can you . In CC years it is much more difficult hence the differences between the BBC estimate and R andTs estimate in 2009 both of which you quote
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
If your all-powerful superbeing can't take having the piss taken, then he's more sodding delicate than Nero [very counter-intuitively, Nero never punished any satirist who mocked him. Given he used to roam the streets at night beating people up at random, and lopped the goolies from a chap, whom he then married, this is quite odd].
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Superb from the Irish. England have never quite got it right. It was a grand slam blowout in Dublin that was the making of England World Cup winning team, though. This is where Jones really starts to earn his money.
England have only played really well in one game - Scotland. They arguably deserved to lose against Wales and France. Even Italy troubled them.
They didn't deserve the Slam.
League table doesn't lie...
Yes, everyone else was shiter than England.
“It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f*cking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just w*nkers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by w*nkers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f*cking difference!”
That's not the type of Trainspotting reference we usually get from you, Sunil
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
If your all-powerful superbeing can't take having the piss taken, then he's more sodding delicate than Nero [very counter-intuitively, Nero never punished any satirist who mocked him. Given he used to roam the streets at night beating people up at random, and lopped the goolies from a chap, whom he then married, this is quite odd].
As your life depends on it, though, don't mock middle aged men who are going bald. 2 Kings 2, 24 records the fate of some naughty children who made fun of Elijah. What happened to them wasn't pleasant.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
Superb from the Irish. England have never quite got it right. It was a grand slam blowout in Dublin that was the making of England World Cup winning team, though. This is where Jones really starts to earn his money.
England have only played really well in one game - Scotland. They arguably deserved to lose against Wales and France. Even Italy troubled them.
They didn't deserve the Slam.
League table doesn't lie...
Yes, everyone else was shiter than England.
“It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f*cking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just w*nkers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by w*nkers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f*cking difference!”
That's not the type of Trainspotting reference we usually get from you, Sunil
Should I invade Scotland? I visited Carlisle station on Thursday and Berwick station on Tuesday
Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
So you think your sainted Theresa will inevitably fail to get a deal with the EU?
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
Superb from the Irish. England have never quite got it right. It was a grand slam blowout in Dublin that was the making of England World Cup winning team, though. This is where Jones really starts to earn his money.
England have only played really well in one game - Scotland. They arguably deserved to lose against Wales and France. Even Italy troubled them.
They didn't deserve the Slam.
League table doesn't lie...
Yes, everyone else was shiter than England.
“It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f*cking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just w*nkers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by w*nkers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f*cking difference!”
That's not the type of Trainspotting reference we usually get from you, Sunil
Should I invade Scotland? I visited Carlisle station on Thursday and Berwick station on Tuesday
If Scotland did go independent, I wonder what rolling stock they would claim ownership off? Would they claim any Pendolinos, HSTs, Voyagers and IC225s? Or Would they just ask for the ScotRail and Caledonian Sleeper stock as these franchises are leased by Transport Scotland?
UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
The 47/44 result is based on a sub-sample.
It's quite funny that you're telling that to HYUFD.
Meanwhile Opinium polling continues on its dare I say wayward path, UKIP 13 Lib Dems 8. It has been a mystery for some time how they get these sort of figures, I think they use a panel, that might account for it. There is something clearly wrong with their figures and has been for several months, out of kilter with actual election returns, both local and national.
Ben Belgacem arrived at the airport and attacked the military patrol in the south terminal. He tried to seize the servicewoman's automatic weapon, put his gun to her head and said: "I'm here to die for Allah. In any case people are going to die." He was then shot dead by two other soldiers.
Thought this was only the kind of mistake that movie villains made.
As Tuco said, "When you have to shoot, shoot; don't talk!"
I sometimes wonder how screwed over we'd be if we faced competent terrorists. Do they think that tough-nuts from the SAS or Action Division engage in self-justificatory quasi-philosophical announcements before depressing the trigger?
I imagine a lot of these guys watch too many movies and are "acting out" their role, rather than taking it seriously in a manner which involves total commitment and thorough training or preparation. That's a big plus for the rest of us, but what's going to happen if they stop cocking around?
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
The 47/44 result is based on a sub-sample.
Well there are bound to be at least 1 or 2 Yes polls at some point even if it is a sub-sample (and not a strict question on whether they would vote Yes or No but would 'prefer' Yes or No)
UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.
I expect most of the UKIP loss will go to the Lib Dems with some to the Conservatives , there are 3 seats in Eastleigh for example which will go back to the Lib Dems . .
Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
So you think your sainted Theresa will inevitably fail to get a deal with the EU?
No, I think she will get some bilateral agreements but as she herself said she was taking the UK out of the EEA so even if there was to be a deal there will be some customs duties or their equivalent with the EU post Brexit
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
Not the EU maybe but Sturgeon will certainly at least aim for the EEA to begin with
Superb from the Irish. England have never quite got it right. It was a grand slam blowout in Dublin that was the making of England World Cup winning team, though. This is where Jones really starts to earn his money.
England have only played really well in one game - Scotland. They arguably deserved to lose against Wales and France. Even Italy troubled them.
They didn't deserve the Slam.
League table doesn't lie...
Yes, everyone else was shiter than England.
“It’s SHITE being Scottish! We’re the lowest of the low. The scum of the f*cking Earth! The most wretched, miserable, servile, pathetic trash that was ever shat into civilization. Some hate the English. I don’t. They’re just w*nkers. We, on the other hand, are COLONIZED by w*nkers. Can’t even find a decent culture to be colonized BY. We’re ruled by effete assholes. It’s a SHITE state of affairs to be in, Tommy, and ALL the fresh air in the world won’t make any f*cking difference!”
That's not the type of Trainspotting reference we usually get from you, Sunil
Should I invade Scotland? I visited Carlisle station on Thursday and Berwick station on Tuesday
If Scotland did go independent, I wonder what rolling stock they would claim ownership off? Would they claim any Pendolinos, HSTs, Voyagers and IC225s? Or Would they just ask for the ScotRail and Caledonian Sleeper stock as these franchises are leased by Transport Scotland?
I did ride a Class 156 in ScotRail colours on the return trip from Carlisle to Newcastle on Thursday.
Ben Belgacem arrived at the airport and attacked the military patrol in the south terminal. He tried to seize the servicewoman's automatic weapon, put his gun to her head and said: "I'm here to die for Allah. In any case people are going to die." He was then shot dead by two other soldiers.
Thought this was only the kind of mistake that movie villains made.
As Tuco said, "When you have to shoot, shoot; don't talk!"
I sometimes wonder how screwed over we'd be if we faced competent terrorists. Do they think that tough-nuts from the SAS or Action Division engage in self-justificatory quasi-philosophical announcements before depressing the trigger?
I imagine a lot of these guys watch too many movies and are "acting out" their role, rather than taking it seriously in a manner which involves total commitment and thorough training or preparation. That's a big plus for the rest of us, but what's going to happen if they stop cocking around?
I think that's correct. Competent assassins do the job with a minimum of fuss.
Surely the question posed should be "Should there be a punishment for blasphemy?".
To which the answer would be "no". The idea someone should be punished for insulting a religion is as whacky as the idea someone should be punished for insulting a political creed.
Mr. Ears, if they were more intelligent, they wouldn't be suicidal murderous religious lunatics.
I don't think this is true. People with strange and sinister intentions can still act rationally or effectively in pursuit of them.
Similarly, in economics, an agent may have a utility function that represents a taste for all kinds of weird and wonderful stuff - the agent is not considered (ir)rational by virtue of their preferences, but by whether they use their initial allocation of resources in the most effective manner, given their objective. Hence there are models of criminal rationality and even rational addiction.
Ben Belgacem arrived at the airport and attacked the military patrol in the south terminal. He tried to seize the servicewoman's automatic weapon, put his gun to her head and said: "I'm here to die for Allah. In any case people are going to die." He was then shot dead by two other soldiers.
Thought this was only the kind of mistake that movie villains made.
As Tuco said, "When you have to shoot, shoot; don't talk!"
I sometimes wonder how screwed over we'd be if we faced competent terrorists. Do they think that tough-nuts from the SAS or Action Division engage in self-justificatory quasi-philosophical announcements before depressing the trigger?
I imagine a lot of these guys watch too many movies and are "acting out" their role, rather than taking it seriously in a manner which involves total commitment and thorough training or preparation. That's a big plus for the rest of us, but what's going to happen if they stop cocking around?
I think that's correct. Competent assassins do the job with a minimum of fuss.
I had lunch with a friend yesterday, who does major jobs in security. He's just been out in Iraq, five miles north of Mosul. Serious shit. He showed me a photo of an ISIS drone that dropped a home made grenade near his car. Very cleverly improvised. The drones come in swarms. Terrifying.
He says that ISIS are losing, and will soon be technically defeated on the ground.
But the fighters are shaving their beards. Many are melting into the local population, aiming to start a new insurgency once Raqqa and Mosul have gone.
And plenty of them are heading back to Europe. And they are definitely *competent*
I wonder how many of the thousands of European citizens who made it to the Islamic State have survived and will make it back. Intelligence services could be busy for decades to come with that lot.
Also, the extent of radicalisation in French and Belgian jails (amongst others) is apparently even worse than the situation in Britain. It's as if they have constructed radicalisation factories, and then shipped thousands of their most vulnerable, yet anti-social and ethically "flexible", folk right into them. That will surely come at a high future price.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
Mr. T, that reminds me that about a year ago, Trevor Phillips had an interesting documentary for Channel 4, which analysed anonymous polling of British Muslims.
Mr. Ears, a fair point. I was being a bit too glib.
Anyway, my eyes are going fuzzy so the time to leave the computer has arrived.
UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.
I expect most of the UKIP loss will go to the Lib Dems with some to the Conservatives , there are 3 seats in Eastleigh for example which will go back to the Lib Dems . .
The LDs ought to be expecting major gains in some of the Remain county council areas like Oxfordshire and some parts of Hampshire and Sussex.
So perhaps we can hope that the stain which is UKIP can be removed from this country.
A reason for Brexit even you can get behind?
(Without Brexit there'd always be a eurosceptic party in this country, and from a left or liberal point of view, it would inevitably be an unpleasant one - no matter how many Richard Tyndalls and the like might support it, there'd always be a darker side.)
French presidential candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan tonight walked out of a TV interview on TF1 in protest against its refusal to invite him to Monday's debate.
All 11 candidates have been invited to TV debates on 4 and 20 April.
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
Scotland would need to have its own currency and central bank probably. The SNP realised they made a mistake with sterling as the apparently lower risk option last time but were unable to switch mid-campaign. EU countries, not just Eurozone ones, are obliged to aim to conform to the Stability and Growth Pact targets, which includes keeping deficits under 3% (the UK had an opt-out). I was just checking the other day whether candidate countries need to meet the targets under the convergence criteria before joining. It wasn't clear. There is a fiscal management programme to ease the transition, but I'm not sure whether it is evaluated for the convergence criteria.
In the comments BTL on that Breitbart piece there is a brilliant quote, apparently from G K Chesterton, on Islam.
I've never read it before. Quite something:
"There is in Islam a paradox which is perhaps a permanent menace. The great creed born in the desert creates a kind of ecstasy of the very emptiness of its own land, and even, one may say, out of the emptiness of its own theology. . . .
"A void is made in the heart of Islam which has to be filled up again and again by a mere repetition of the revolution that founded it. There are no sacraments; the only thing that can happen is a sort of apocalypse, as unique as the end of the world; so the apocalypse can only be repeated and the world end again and again. There are no priests; and yet this equality can only breed a multitude of lawless prophets almost as numerous as priests. The very dogma that there is only one Mahomet produces an endless procession of Mahomets"
Very interesting indeed. I'll have to read more of Chesterton.
There's a German petition to allow Scotland to remain in the EU if it votes for independence. In itself not significant, but it does suggest that the level of visibility and goodwill will be on a different scale to last time.
UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.
I expect most of the UKIP loss will go to the Lib Dems with some to the Conservatives , there are 3 seats in Eastleigh for example which will go back to the Lib Dems . .
The LDs ought to be expecting major gains in some of the Remain county council areas like Oxfordshire and some parts of Hampshire and Sussex.
True , the vote shares in all council by elections since Nov 1st ONLY in areas with elections on May 4th are Con 39% Lab 19% LDem 25% UKIP 8% Green 3% Others 6%
The UKIP vote drop has gone rather more to the Lib Dems than the Conservatives
There's a German petition to allow Scotland to remain in the EU if it votes for independence. In itself not significant, but it does suggest that the level of visibility and goodwill will be on a different scale to last time.
There's a German petition to allow Scotland to remain in the EU if it votes for independence. In itself not significant, but it does suggest that the level of visibility and goodwill will be on a different scale to last time.
In the comments BTL on that Breitbart piece there is a brilliant quote, apparently from G K Chesterton, on Islam.
I've never read it before. Quite something:
"There is in Islam a paradox which is perhaps a permanent menace. The great creed born in the desert creates a kind of ecstasy of the very emptiness of its own land, and even, one may say, out of the emptiness of its own theology. . . .
"A void is made in the heart of Islam which has to be filled up again and again by a mere repetition of the revolution that founded it. There are no sacraments; the only thing that can happen is a sort of apocalypse, as unique as the end of the world; so the apocalypse can only be repeated and the world end again and again. There are no priests; and yet this equality can only breed a multitude of lawless prophets almost as numerous as priests. The very dogma that there is only one Mahomet produces an endless procession of Mahomets"
G K Chesterton? Surprised you quote such a second rate author.
There's a German petition to allow Scotland to remain in the EU if it votes for independence. In itself not significant, but it does suggest that the level of visibility and goodwill will be on a different scale to last time.
There's a German petition to allow Scotland to remain in the EU if it votes for independence. In itself not significant, but it does suggest that the level of visibility and goodwill will be on a different scale to last time.
Secret tape reveals Momentum plot to seize control of Labour
A hard-left plot by supporters of Jeremy Corbyn to seize permanent control of the Labour party and consolidate their power by formally joining forces with the super-union Unite can be revealed by the Observer.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
The EU has accepted members where entry into the Euro is many decades away.
UKIP were on 22% in the projected national vote share at the 2013 local elections, so that's effectively what they're defending this year. The Tories could be looking at some major gains this May, assuming most of the UKIP losses will be heading in their direction.
Hmmm
UKIP gains in 2013 of 139 - they could lose say half this time - are going to be subsumed into the Tory vs Lab numbers, i.e. "is Jeremy really that crap?" which is a battle over 300 seats.
In the comments BTL on that Breitbart piece there is a brilliant quote, apparently from G K Chesterton, on Islam.
I've never read it before. Quite something:
"There is in Islam a paradox which is perhaps a permanent menace. The great creed born in the desert creates a kind of ecstasy of the very emptiness of its own land, and even, one may say, out of the emptiness of its own theology. . . .
"A void is made in the heart of Islam which has to be filled up again and again by a mere repetition of the revolution that founded it. There are no sacraments; the only thing that can happen is a sort of apocalypse, as unique as the end of the world; so the apocalypse can only be repeated and the world end again and again. There are no priests; and yet this equality can only breed a multitude of lawless prophets almost as numerous as priests. The very dogma that there is only one Mahomet produces an endless procession of Mahomets"
G K Chesterton? Surprised you quote such a second rate author.
In the comments BTL on that Breitbart piece there is a brilliant quote, apparently from G K Chesterton, on Islam.
I've never read it before. Quite something:
"There is in Islam a paradox which is perhaps a permanent menace. The great creed born in the desert creates a kind of ecstasy of the very emptiness of its own land, and even, one may say, out of the emptiness of its own theology. . . .
"A void is made in the heart of Islam which has to be filled up again and again by a mere repetition of the revolution that founded it. There are no sacraments; the only thing that can happen is a sort of apocalypse, as unique as the end of the world; so the apocalypse can only be repeated and the world end again and again. There are no priests; and yet this equality can only breed a multitude of lawless prophets almost as numerous as priests. The very dogma that there is only one Mahomet produces an endless procession of Mahomets"
G K Chesterton? Surprised you quote such a second rate author.
"Pressure is mounting on George Osborne to step down as an MP after it emerged he may have broken post-ministerial rules when taking his new job as editor of the Evening Standard.
When ministers step down from office they are subject to a two-year grace period, during which any other jobs or employment they undertake is contingent on approval by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments (ACOBA)."
While jahadi jez is f##king useless and in the short term no opposition is not good, the hard left taking over labour is really worrying. I feel like an early GE could solve a lot of problems.
1) may gets a mandidate
2) corbyn goes, hopefully replaced by somebody who can provide leadership
3) new leader also stops the hard left taking over.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
The EU has accepted members where entry into the Euro is many decades away.
That was before the euro went tits up. Less keen now.
Do you ever get hilariously abusive reviews or e-mails from unhappy readers?
I loved one that Joe Abercrombie proudly published. "I've read the Thresh (sic) Law Trilogy, and frankly, what a turd. Do us all a favour and stop writing.". He was especially pleased that the angry reader had bought the trilogy.
Secret tape reveals Momentum plot to seize control of Labour
A hard-left plot by supporters of Jeremy Corbyn to seize permanent control of the Labour party and consolidate their power by formally joining forces with the super-union Unite can be revealed by the Observer.
I've been saying that there's a good chance that GO will do a u-turn on the editor job. Wilmslow people aren't very demanding timewise, but they also don't like being disrespected. Are there any odds available on the u-turn?
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
The EU has accepted members where entry into the Euro is many decades away.
That was before the euro went tits up. Less keen now.
1999: The € is born. £1 = € 1.4067 2017: £1 = 1.1519
We can see which currency went tits up. There is only one devalued currency.
Why are anti-Islamists always mixing FGM with Islam ? Is it a deliberate strategy ? 99% of Muslims [ Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afganistan....................... ] have never heard of FGM.
Only Upper Egypt, Sudan [ including South Sudan ] and the Horn of Africa where this nasty piece of work gets carried out.
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
The EU has accepted members where entry into the Euro is many decades away.
That was before the euro went tits up. Less keen now.
1999: The € is born. £1 = € 1.4067 2017: £1 = 1.1519
We can see which currency went tits up. There is only one devalued currency.
Currencies fluctuate in value. What the Euro did was to generate a wild property boom, followed by a wild property bust, in several European countries.
Why are anti-Islamists always mixing FGM with Islam ? Is it a deliberate strategy ? 99% of Muslims [ Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afganistan....................... ] have never heard of FGM.
Only Upper Egypt, Sudan [ including South Sudan ] and the Horn of Africa where this nasty piece of work gets carried out.
What's your line on "blasphemy" and punishment thereof, surby-baby?
Yes and even if Scotland does go independent you will still have them as the SNP have said they will keep the Queen and her successors as Scotland's Head of State
Yes and even if Scotland does go independent you will still have them as the SNP have said they will keep the Queen and her successors as Scotland's Head of State
I'll only believe that when you have a sub sample of 14 from Ecclefechan to back it up.
So surbiton has a point, FGM is absolutely not an Islamic thing, and rarely if ever happens in Islamic countries, as long as one ignores its widespread prevalance in Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Oman, Yemen, Algeria, Chad, Syria, Iran, Kurdistan, Djibouti, Turkey, Mali, Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq, Eritrea, and Jordan. And Pakistan.
Just make up the numbers. The African countries are probably correct. I doubt if there is any FGM in Saudi Arabia. The rest, there is zero chance whatever your source may say. Like Trump you can quote the social media but that does not make it correct.
Even Male circumcision is not compulsory [ i.e. it is not prescribed in the Quran ] but 99.9% practice it. As does every male Jew and millions of others.
Why are anti-Islamists always mixing FGM with Islam ? Is it a deliberate strategy ? 99% of Muslims [ Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afganistan....................... ] have never heard of FGM.
Only Upper Egypt, Sudan [ including South Sudan ] and the Horn of Africa where this nasty piece of work gets carried out.
What's your line on "blasphemy" and punishment thereof, surby-baby?
First you need to have sex with your train sets since you have not done the real thing.
Second. There is no such thing as blasphemy. Every individual should be allowed to practice whatever they like as long as it does not harm anyone else.
Religion [ all religions ] is the biggest problem of all.
Yes and even if Scotland does go independent you will still have them as the SNP have said they will keep the Queen and her successors as Scotland's Head of State
I'll only believe that when you have a sub sample of 14 from Ecclefechan to back it up.
I don't need a subsample, both Salmond and Sturgeon have said they will keep the Windsors
Is this a new Indy poll? Strange way of reporting it if so.
'Most Britons say Brexit vote makes break-up of UK more likely – poll
Any future vote is likely to be closer, with 47% of Scots polled saying that they would prefer a yes vote in a new referendum, against 44% who prefer no.'
There must be more than a few prominent unionist figures reading the runes and wondering when to time their conversion 'with a heavy heart' to independence. Once it begins to appear inevitable, the questions will become defined more by post-independence politics.
Also, the moment A50 is invoked, the international dimension will be transformed and senior people in other EU member states will feel much more liberty to opine on the practicalities for seamless Scottish reentry.
Firstly, the fact that the majority of polls show No would still win does not make independence inevitable. Second as soon as a hypothectical independent Scotland reenters the EU/EEA after the UK has left the EU and EEA then customs duties on exports from Scotland to the UK become inevitable and around 70% of Scottish goods go to the rest of the UK compared to around 45% of UK exports to the EU
This is all accurate. But would an independent Scotland even be considered for EU membership if it used sterling as its currency and therefore had no control over monetary policy on its own territory? Doesn't the EU require aspiring members to run their fiscal and monetary policies so as to ease their entry into the euro? And if a country can't do that...
The EU has accepted members where entry into the Euro is many decades away.
That was before the euro went tits up. Less keen now.
1999: The € is born. £1 = € 1.4067 2017: £1 = 1.1519
We can see which currency went tits up. There is only one devalued currency.
Except a freely floating currency is a good thing, it acts as a shock absorber, stabilised and safety valve all in one correcting imbalances in the economy and helping us get to a new equilibrium with a minimum of disruption. The fact the pound has been able to take the brunt of some of the shocks we have had in the past decade is precisely why we have been able to cope so well.
With Brown's spending, deficit, recession and everything else if we weren't lucky enough to still have the pound we would have had to take the full brunt of the shocks with a dramatically overvalued currency. That would have been a disaster.
Comments
This is from the BBC in 2009:
' According to the BBC projections, Labour's share of the national vote has fallen by three points since 2004 to 23%, behind the Tories on 38% and the Liberal Democrats on 28%. '
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8085558.stm
and this is from the House of Commons research paper:
' Estimates suggest that the Conservatives won 35% of the national equivalent share of the
vote, Liberal Democrats 25% and Labour 22%. '
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP09-54/RP09-54.pdf
this from John Curtice:
' When projected into the equivalent of a national share of the vote, Labour's performance was worth no more than 23 per cent, one point down on last year. '
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-curtice-a-sign-of-labours-weakness-more-than-the-tories-strength-1698140.html
and this is from Profs Rallings and Thrasher:
https://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English Local Elections Update - PSA Media Briefing Pack.pdf
Now you can argue about the accuracy of their work but NEV still remains the only realistic way of comparing one set of local elections to another.
If your all-powerful superbeing can't take having the piss taken, then he's more sodding delicate than Nero [very counter-intuitively, Nero never punished any satirist who mocked him. Given he used to roam the streets at night beating people up at random, and lopped the goolies from a chap, whom he then married, this is quite odd].
Ben Belgacem arrived at the airport and attacked the military patrol in the south terminal.
He tried to seize the servicewoman's automatic weapon, put his gun to her head and said: "I'm here to die for Allah. In any case people are going to die." He was then shot dead by two other soldiers.
Thought this was only the kind of mistake that movie villains made.
As Tuco said, "When you have to shoot, shoot; don't talk!"
I sometimes wonder how screwed over we'd be if we faced competent terrorists. Do they think that tough-nuts from the SAS or Action Division engage in self-justificatory quasi-philosophical announcements before depressing the trigger?
I imagine a lot of these guys watch too many movies and are "acting out" their role, rather than taking it seriously in a manner which involves total commitment and thorough training or preparation. That's a big plus for the rest of us, but what's going to happen if they stop cocking around?
Reile-na-h'Alba!
Similarly, in economics, an agent may have a utility function that represents a taste for all kinds of weird and wonderful stuff - the agent is not considered (ir)rational by virtue of their preferences, but by whether they use their initial allocation of resources in the most effective manner, given their objective. Hence there are models of criminal rationality and even rational addiction.
Also, the extent of radicalisation in French and Belgian jails (amongst others) is apparently even worse than the situation in Britain. It's as if they have constructed radicalisation factories, and then shipped thousands of their most vulnerable, yet anti-social and ethically "flexible", folk right into them. That will surely come at a high future price.
Mr. Ears, a fair point. I was being a bit too glib.
Anyway, my eyes are going fuzzy so the time to leave the computer has arrived.
(Without Brexit there'd always be a eurosceptic party in this country, and from a left or liberal point of view, it would inevitably be an unpleasant one - no matter how many Richard Tyndalls and the like might support it, there'd always be a darker side.)
All 11 candidates have been invited to TV debates on 4 and 20 April.
https://youtu.be/WrUJoRqh9Oc
https://you.wemove.eu/campaigns/schottland-bleibt
Con 39%
Lab 19%
LDem 25%
UKIP 8%
Green 3%
Others 6%
The UKIP vote drop has gone rather more to the Lib Dems than the Conservatives
Labour council candidate in Birmingham has been deselected after Guido revealed her anti-Israel Facebook posts.
Round trip, no stopping.
A hard-left plot by supporters of Jeremy Corbyn to seize permanent control of the Labour party and consolidate their power by formally joining forces with the super-union Unite can be revealed by the Observer.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/18/secret-tape-reveals-momentum-plot-to-link-with-unite-seize-control-of-labour
UKIP gains in 2013 of 139 - they could lose say half this time - are going to be subsumed into the Tory vs Lab numbers, i.e. "is Jeremy really that crap?" which is a battle over 300 seats.
When ministers step down from office they are subject to a two-year grace period, during which any other jobs or employment they undertake is contingent on approval by the Advisory Committee on Business Appointments (ACOBA)."
http://news.sky.com/story/george-osborne-may-have-broken-rules-over-evening-standard-editor-job-10806358
1) may gets a mandidate
2) corbyn goes, hopefully replaced by somebody who can provide leadership
3) new leader also stops the hard left taking over.
https://twitter.com/DLF_Officiel/status/843194312758386691
I loved one that Joe Abercrombie proudly published. "I've read the Thresh (sic) Law Trilogy, and frankly, what a turd. Do us all a favour and stop writing.". He was especially pleased that the angry reader had bought the trilogy.
This is hardly news, is the Observer only just catching up?
But it did make me think, about Unite the Union
Is there any poling out about its leadership election? or any betting markets? normally in Union elections the incumbent is in a safe position.
We can see which currency went tits up. There is only one devalued currency.
On topic. As long as the gov are delivering on UKIP's manifesto, then there's little point in UKIP.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Only Upper Egypt, Sudan [ including South Sudan ] and the Horn of Africa where this nasty piece of work gets carried out.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/843234666513620993
Even Male circumcision is not compulsory [ i.e. it is not prescribed in the Quran ] but 99.9% practice it. As does every male Jew and millions of others.
Second. There is no such thing as blasphemy. Every individual should be allowed to practice whatever they like as long as it does not harm anyone else.
Religion [ all religions ] is the biggest problem of all.
https://jwa.org/encyclopedia/article/ethiopian-jewish-women
http://forward.com/sisterhood/127919/does-judaism-endorse-female-genital-cutting-no-b/
https://copticliterature.wordpress.com/2014/02/21/the-position-of-the-coptic-church-on-female-genital-mutilation-fgm/
With Brown's spending, deficit, recession and everything else if we weren't lucky enough to still have the pound we would have had to take the full brunt of the shocks with a dramatically overvalued currency. That would have been a disaster.