Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take plac

Lots ofactivity from the bookies following Nicola Stugeon’s announcement that the SNP is going for a second IndyRef because of the vastly changed circumstances as a result of BREXIT.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Aidan___Kerr/status/841274889948545024
What you have to remember is that Scotland is of almost no interest to the EU. It's tiny, it's remote and its public finances as an independent state would be dire. Why would our EU friends go out of their way to give it special treatment? They've got bigger fish to fry.
Might May (if still PM) welcome the certainty either way that a referendum would produce? And could she stay on after a Yes vote (I think she could, actually)? Either way there's no need to agree anything yet.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/841280510227828738
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
I don't see why Article 50 being reversible is such a complicated issue. If the UK decided it no longer wanted to leave within the 2 year period, then the EU 27 are not going to force us out and will be happy to stop the process. Its a sign of the weakness of Leave that they seem to be so worried about this.
Buy turnips.
It would not be politically acceptable that an arrangement which has been there since 1707 and no longer exists is just one of those things. It is not.
Other gamers may be interested to know that I remember the stages of grief by mentally working my way through Majora's Mask.
I'm OK with that.
It is psychologically and politically very important. It will show that part of a country that left wants to re-join. Spain will be told to lump it.
Though I'm not in favour of Scotland and ultimately Ireland going independent this is great news for Scotland.
It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively with @LadPolitics
Massive if Scots vote for Independence
Dave admitted he would have quit in 2014, so if Mrs May is as honourable as Dave, she would quit too.
I think Alex Salmond said last year, you lose a referendum like the Indyref or the EURef, you have to quit.
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/841265993649385472
What is panning out currently is Jeremy Corbyn's wet dream, by the way. He has no interest in winning elections, but he is a huge fan of the UK ceasing to exist.
This is how the negotiations could go: months of May pushing back against the EU offering variations of schemes to allow UK citizens to maintain their rights.
The Supreme Court has ruled what's needed. The government and parliament are doing it.
https://www.bindmans.com/uploads/files/documents/Final_Article_50_Opinion_10.2.17.pdf
In any case, surely the Government are putting forward a Hard Brexit (and putting it about that we are prepared for "no deal") precisely so that we can get a softer Brexit in negotiations.
https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/841280441692913664
Always good when the fucknuggets come out for the other side.
Sturgeon was told by the Supreme Court that Scotland could not have a veto on leaving the EU.
So she just tries to create her own one anyway. Don't think it's going to work, just makes everything harder for everyone.
Pity she can't focus on Scotland's Health, Education, and Employment. Those are the bits she's supposed to be responsible for.
Unlike the Poshos, Mrs May actually knows how to:
a) Whip the parly party
b) Conduct a negotiation with a basically hostile bloc
and looks well on course to
c) Win a proper majority by securing Tory/Lab marginals, none of this knifeedge rubbish achieved by becoming pseudo Lib Dems...
You could never make such a complaint against the 'Ignore the result of the Referendum Party'.
The Snpers have been unleashed.
Oh the hilarity when it fails again.
Best price they leave 10/11
I make that just under 30%
If you think TM the PM is more than 80% to resign then those 7/1 and 8/1 bets that she leaves in 18 or 19 are ok
She could leave for other reasons too I guess
The details of Brexit were the responsibilities of individuals but had - say - Miliband won the 2015 election, the pressure to Brexit wouldn't have gone away. On the contrary, the likelihood is that the Tories would now be led by either an outright Leaver (Boris - not necessarily a fully-committed one, but one who'd have played that card in the leadership election), or at best a very luke-warm Remainer like May, who'd carry across Cameron's renegotiate-and-referendum policy. Meanwhile, UKIP would probably have taken a chunk out of Labour's support and be polling at 20%+.
Strategy is being read by otherwise bright people on this board as Gospel.
Well, I didn't have a go at Mr. T when he borrowed UKIPalypse for one of his Telegraph blogs. Damned shame they ended, now I come to think of it.
1. The UK will be run by the Tories for a generation
2. The Tories don't have the UK's best interests in mind never mind Scotland
3. Brexit shows self-determination wins over all other factors. You really can change your future in a way many people didn't believe in 2014
4. Yes Scotland trades most with the rest of the UK. But that ship will sink with hard Brexit, so reforge the auld alliance and switch the focus back to Europe
5. An independent Scotland will remain part of the single market (she WILL get that offered by Brussels). And there's no question about being thrown out of the British Isles single market as we already have non-UK members in it (Eire, IOM, CI)
6. There's no risk-free status quo to fall back on now. Independence - the single market is more of the status quo than thrown on the mercy of WTO tariffs.
And so timings. Scotland will declare the referendum for next autumn and start its discussions with Brussels now. Westminster will say no, Scotland will go ahead with the vote anyway (or, unless Maybe doesn't want to present that particular gift to the leave case, it will happen next autumn without dispute).
Either way, the offer will be an independent Scotland in Europe, or a Scotland dragged to the bottom of the Atlantic by the sinking Brexit Britain. And if I had a vote, I'd vote to leave. And it puts SLAB in a hell of a position. Campaign to remain and give succour to both Corbyn and the Tories. Or campaign to leave and risk giving it to the SNP.
Were I Dugdale the appealing option surely is to provide the opposition to the SNP in an independent Scotland offering a Labour version of independence rather than eternal SNP rule.
On the day that she was going to be overshadowed by a proper leader who could not only manage her party but also ride out tricky legal issues relating to independence, she threw her toys out of the pram.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/841269290082922496