politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A grim set of local by-elections for Corbyn’s LAB losing a sea
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At least you weren't Syd Barrett! World record selling albums devoted to how you wasted your youth/lifeSeanT said:
I watched the finale of Hell on Wheels last night (yet another compelling TV series, by the way)isam said:
One of my fav quotes on death comes from... Scooby Doo!!AlastairMeeks said:Having considered the matter carefully, I would prefer not to die.
Cant remember the exact situation, but there were three old men in a room and a bomb was heading for the building I think...
"I'm too young to die"
"I'm too old to die!"
"I'm too scared to die!!"
It had this oddly compelling quote, when the cynical politician says to the dashing hero (now a little wizened, and considering his future)
"You are not yet an old man, Mister Bohannan. But you are no longer young."
Brrr..0 -
Mr. Ilef, not only that, Wales has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the GDP. Not great stats for independence.0
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If they don't play nice does she have an optionwilliamglenn said:
Would May impose direct rule immediately following such a big symbolic moment?Pulpstar said:Sinn Fein have a chance of being largest party I think.
?
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I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.Cookie said:
I want to die sometime in my late 80s or early 90s, a late summer's day somewhere in the north of England, dozing off gently after a hearty lunch,an inconsequential end-of-rubber test match ambling towards a happy conclusion on the radio, the chatter children and grandchildren from elsewhere in the building, maybe the shout of the odd great-grandchild...TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to die on my 100th birthday, and I want my wife to be so upset, that she cancels her 21st birthday party as a mark of respect.SeanT said:
I'd like to die like Atilla the Hun. Or Lord Palmerston.IanB2 said:
My bet is on your not dying in hospitalSeanT said:
.TheScreamingEagles said:
Check out the last thread header, this is what Mike wroteSeanT said:
Did I miss something, is OGH poorly as well?Tykejohnno said:Get well soon Mr Smithson.
Sympathies. It's like a Casualty ward in here, today.
For the third Friday in a row I’m off to hospital this morning after being one of those who’ve added to this winter’s unprecedented demand on the NHS.
Alright, I wouldn't wish the discovery of their dead father on my children. But as a way to round off a life, it seems pretty unbeatable.0 -
Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?0
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I think so. Can you make it ?Morris_Dancer said:Is Fillon's rally on Sunday?
I reckon he will be quite defiant there.0 -
Actually in percentage terms Kersal is the most Jewish ward, it's the fifth highest in absolute numbers. The London wards have a much higher overall population.0
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Wales, is the one place that I can see UKIP picking up a few seats in the LG elections this May.HYUFD said:
Wales is more pro May and Brexit than LondonTheuniondivvie said:
Wales seems to have gone weirdly kippery..TheScreamingEagles said:
Shame on you for forgetting Plaid Cymru!Theuniondivvie said:
The English Democrats' moment has surely arrived.TheScreamingEagles said:
Brexit really has shaken the kaleidoscope of politics in four parts of the UK.Theuniondivvie said:
Golly, surely that would be a big symbolic moment?TheScreamingEagles said:
Has there been any analysis of the NI election through the Brexit lens? I'm guessing it must have had some effect.
Just think if it were to happen, two secessionist parties would have the most seats in 2 out of the 3 devolved parliaments/assemblies.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, you tinker. I certainly shan't be attending, the imbecile ought to stand down.0
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yep, to mis-quote Porfirio Diaz: "Poor Wales, so far from God and so close to England!"Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Ilef, not only that, Wales has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the GDP. Not great stats for independence.
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At the risk of getting a bit uncle Albert "When I woz at Brighton Uni..." the place was full of Corbynites, before anyone knew what a Corbynite was. The tutors were hard left, SWPers.. and they HATED IsraelAndyJS said:Actually in percentage terms Kersal is the most Jewish ward, it's the fifth highest in absolute numbers. The London wards have a much higher overall population.
I should imagine the majority of people there are more willing to give Labour a hearing now than when EdM was in charge. Here is one of the lecturers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jdPGhq2QbQ
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I stand avec Fillon.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, you tinker. I certainly shan't be attending, the imbecile ought to stand down.
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That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?Cyan said:Nominations so far:
1155 FILLON François
464 MACRON Emmanuel
334 HAMON Benoît
314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
163 CHEMINADE Jacques
136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
84 LE PEN Marine
70 LASSALLE Jean
60 ASSELINEAU François
36 POUTOU Philippe
105 OTHERS0 -
There's a 'non-aligned' section as well, I think?Chris_A said:
As I've asked before which section do the Alliance come in? The GFA seems to be perpetuating sectarian divide rather than ending it.david_herdson said:
I don't think that's possible, is it? Doesn't the Stormont House agreement reserve the FM/DFM positions for the largest party in each of the two respective sections?HYUFD said:
If it is tied between the DUP and SF that means neither will give an inch to the other and a UUP + SDLP + Alliance deal is not impossible with Mike Nesbitt as First MinisterPulpstar said:#NIreland (33% counted)
#DUP: 27% (-2)
#SF: 27% (+3)
#UUP: 14% (+1)
#SDLP: 12%
#A: 9% (+2)
#TUV: 3% (-1)
#Green: 3%
#PbP: 1% (-1) #AE17
Apparently.0 -
Mr. Isam, 40s of that self-righteous prig was quite enough.
I wasn't in this particular lecture, but at the time of the Danish cartoon nonsense, a lecturer at my university was bleating about how horrendous the cartoons were. Fortunately, he already had a reputation as an oaf, so I imagine his influence was minimal.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Pulpstar, boo hiss to Fillon!0 -
My understanding is that the nominations are personal, not party based, so they can both be properly nominated. As you can see the numbers at this point are a bit arbitrary.david_herdson said:
That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?Cyan said:Nominations so far:
1155 FILLON François
464 MACRON Emmanuel
334 HAMON Benoît
314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
163 CHEMINADE Jacques
136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
84 LE PEN Marine
70 LASSALLE Jean
60 ASSELINEAU François
36 POUTOU Philippe
105 OTHERS0 -
Pretty much exactly how my father-in-law went (he didn't quite make 80, but got closer than he'd have expected to given where he started from). Just fell out of his chair one Sunday afternoon while watching the footie.Cookie said:
I want to die sometime in my late 80s or early 90s, a late summer's day somewhere in the north of England, dozing off gently after a hearty lunch,an inconsequential end-of-rubber test match ambling towards a happy conclusion on the radio, the chatter children and grandchildren from elsewhere in the building, maybe the shout of the odd great-grandchild...TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to die on my 100th birthday, and I want my wife to be so upset, that she cancels her 21st birthday party as a mark of respect.SeanT said:
I'd like to die like Atilla the Hun. Or Lord Palmerston.IanB2 said:
My bet is on your not dying in hospitalSeanT said:
.TheScreamingEagles said:
Check out the last thread header, this is what Mike wroteSeanT said:
Did I miss something, is OGH poorly as well?Tykejohnno said:Get well soon Mr Smithson.
Sympathies. It's like a Casualty ward in here, today.
For the third Friday in a row I’m off to hospital this morning after being one of those who’ve added to this winter’s unprecedented demand on the NHS.
Alright, I wouldn't wish the discovery of their dead father on my children. But as a way to round off a life, it seems pretty unbeatable.
Good for him. Not much fun for his wife who was sitting next to him, mind.0 -
Juppe and Fillon both on the ballot would be great news for Macron and Le Pen.david_herdson said:
That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?Cyan said:Nominations so far:
1155 FILLON François
464 MACRON Emmanuel
334 HAMON Benoît
314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
163 CHEMINADE Jacques
136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
84 LE PEN Marine
70 LASSALLE Jean
60 ASSELINEAU François
36 POUTOU Philippe
105 OTHERS0 -
Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.0
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@SeanT
Massive coincidence! A few years a go I got right into Peter Gabriels music, and even went (alone!) to see him at Earls Court (I think) doing orchestral versions of his songs!
Today his mailing list people have sent me this! Look how he aged between 93 and 03 (The goatee beard/waistcoat to the bike ride)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeYqJxlSv-Y0 -
I remember it well - I'm sure it was a price worth paying ... if you lived in the Shires or the South East of England..Morris_Dancer said:0 -
Le croque monsieur, surely?Morris_Dancer said:Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.
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Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.Morris_Dancer said:Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.
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I was surprised to see in an opinion poll not that long ago that the preferred constitutional settlement of 25% of Sinn Fein supporters was to stay in the UKPulpstar said:
I think a referendum on NI rejoining the republic would be immensely close.AndreaParma_82 said:Final
First preferences
DUP 28.1 (-1.1)
SF 27.9 (+3.9)
UUP 12.9 (+0.3)
SDLP 11.9 (-0.1)
Alliance 9.1 (+2.1)
TUV 2.6 (-0.9)
Greens 2.3 (-0.4)
PBP 1.8 (-0.2)0 -
Blimey !FF43 said:
I was surprised to see in an opinion poll not that long ago that the preferred constitutional settlement of 25% of Sinn Fein supporters was to stay in the UKPulpstar said:
I think a referendum on NI rejoining the republic would be immensely close.AndreaParma_82 said:Final
First preferences
DUP 28.1 (-1.1)
SF 27.9 (+3.9)
UUP 12.9 (+0.3)
SDLP 11.9 (-0.1)
Alliance 9.1 (+2.1)
TUV 2.6 (-0.9)
Greens 2.3 (-0.4)
PBP 1.8 (-0.2)
I think alot will depend on Brexit though..0 -
Pretty sure he CAN withdraw. You cannot force someone to be on the ballot paper against their will. The question is, WILL the stubborn goat withdraw or would he prefer to hand the contest to Le Pen and Macron out of spite.Pulpstar said:
Juppe and Fillon both on the ballot would be great news for Macron and Le Pen.david_herdson said:
That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?Cyan said:Nominations so far:
1155 FILLON François
464 MACRON Emmanuel
334 HAMON Benoît
314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
163 CHEMINADE Jacques
136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
84 LE PEN Marine
70 LASSALLE Jean
60 ASSELINEAU François
36 POUTOU Philippe
105 OTHERS0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, indeed.
Mr. Meeks, I bow to your superior knowledge of Frenchist cuisine.
Mr. Ilef, I only meant the video as a spot of light relief (whilst also highlighting the economic impact of an independent Wales on its economy).0 -
I was at White Hart Lane when a man suffered a massive heart attack after celebrating a Spurs goal, I remember thinking that was probably as good as any way to go, albeit inconvenient for those around him.0
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I'd settle for inadvertently discovering a new species of incredibly toxic tree frog.....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?
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I've spent the last hour pondering these odds and came to a similar conclusion.Pulpstar said:
Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.Morris_Dancer said:Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.
I've backed Fillon @ 15/1 for a small(ish) sum.
If I could understand french (and had bigger balls), I'd probably lay Juppe @ <4/1 for thousands right now.
In fact, put that bet down as a Pong paper trade.0 -
It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.chestnut said:
Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.RoyalBlue said:More on NI attitudes to reunification:
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1
The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.
Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.0 -
Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends moreBigRich said:
Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.HYUFD said:
Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different storyBigRich said:
And, I'm with you!Philip_Thompson said:
Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?williamglenn said:
You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?Fishing said:
Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.AlastairMeeks said:
Meanwhile, the fruit rots.
Yes. Don't you?
Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!
It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.0 -
You're a chip off the old block, then - and I mean that in a good way.SeanT said:
Close to the death of Nobel Laureate William Golding, a death which was also, I might add, caused by my father.Cookie said:
I want to die sometime in my late 80s or early 90s, a late summer's day somewhere in the north of England, dozing off gently after a hearty lunch,an inconsequential end-of-rubber test match ambling towards a happy conclusion on the radio, the chatter children and grandchildren from elsewhere in the building, maybe the shout of the odd great-grandchild...TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to die on my 100th birthday, and I want my wife to be so upset, that she cancels her 21st birthday party as a mark of respect.SeanT said:
I'd like to die like Atilla the Hun. Or Lord Palmerston.IanB2 said:
My bet is on your not dying in hospitalSeanT said:
.TheScreamingEagles said:
Check out the last thread header, this is what Mike wroteSeanT said:
Did I miss something, is OGH poorly as well?Tykejohnno said:Get well soon Mr Smithson.
Sympathies. It's like a Casualty ward in here, today.
For the third Friday in a row I’m off to hospital this morning after being one of those who’ve added to this winter’s unprecedented demand on the NHS.
Alright, I wouldn't wish the discovery of their dead father on my children. But as a way to round off a life, it seems pretty unbeatable.
This is the story: Golding lived in Cornwall, in Perranaworthal, quite near my father's house in Truro. Golding invited my dad over for a literary/family supper party. Apparently there was much hilarity, and wine drinking, and singing of songs, and Golding had all his kids and grandkids there and it was greatly enjoyed by all.
My dad was the last to leave, everyone else had gone to bed. Golding was about to join them, when my Dad persuaded him to open one more bottle of red, which they shared, late into the night.
Golding died in his sleep that night, of a heart attack.
A good way to go, but my Dad rightly wonders if Golding might still be alive, if he hadn't persuaded him to down another pint of claret.0 -
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I visited Singapore earlier this year. Spotlessly clean, low unemployment and crime, minimal welfare system, tough immigration laws, should be a model of how to run a country.HYUFD said:
Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends moreBigRich said:
Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.HYUFD said:
Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different storyBigRich said:
And, I'm with you!Philip_Thompson said:
Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?williamglenn said:
You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?Fishing said:
Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.AlastairMeeks said:
Meanwhile, the fruit rots.
Yes. Don't you?
Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!
It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.0 -
I've been out. Have we mentioned Roger McGough:MarqueeMark said:
I'd settle for inadvertently discovering a new species of incredibly toxic tree frog.....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?
https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/let-me-die-a-youngman-s-death/0 -
Singapore works for a very wealthy city state, it is the equivalent of London, it is not the equivalent of the UK, Malaysia is. Singapore also has little manufacturing and almost no agriculture and is dominated by services, especially financial servicesfreetochoose said:
I visited Singapore earlier this year. Spotlessly clean, low unemployment and crime, minimal welfare system, tough immigration laws, should be a model of how to run a country.HYUFD said:
Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends moreBigRich said:
Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.HYUFD said:
Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different storyBigRich said:
And, I'm with you!Philip_Thompson said:
Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?williamglenn said:
You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?Fishing said:
Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.AlastairMeeks said:
Meanwhile, the fruit rots.
Yes. Don't you?
Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!
It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.0 -
Got those bell-bottoms pressed - we're going back to the 70s!
https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/8376099652212654090 -
I think the current odds are about right. I've taken advantage of the volatility to even up my position so I'm about equally green on Macron/Juppé/Fillon (red on Le Pen).Pong said:
I've spent the last hour pondering these odds and came to a similar conclusion.Pulpstar said:
Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.Morris_Dancer said:Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.
I've backed Fillon @ 15/1 for a small(ish) sum.
If I could understand french (and had bigger balls), I'd probably lay Juppe @ <4/1 for thousands right now.
In fact, put that bet down as a Pong paper trade.</p>
Edit: I wouldn't lay Juppé because it looks extremely likely that the centre-right will coalesce behind him. Fillon might try to tough it out, but he'll have little support if he does.
One thing which is spooking Fillon's former supporters is the realisation that, although he'd have immunity from prosecution as president (and maybe as a candidate? I'm not sure on that), Mme Fillon wouldn't. He also did himself a lot of harm amongst his supporters by his intemperate attacks on the judges.0 -
Fair enough - trouble is that its hard to see Wales relinquishing its position at the bottom of the UK heap if the Status Quo is maintained, yet independence would bring even more problems in the short and medium terms.. and as we know, in the long term, we are all dead!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, indeed.
Mr. Meeks, I bow to your superior knowledge of Frenchist cuisine.
Mr. Ilef, I only meant the video as a spot of light relief (whilst also highlighting the economic impact of an independent Wales on its economy).0 -
Perhaps Singapore is not so great if you are Malay or Indian...HYUFD said:
Singapore works for a very wealthy city state, it is the equivalent of London, it is not the equivalent of the UK, Malaysia is. Singapore also has little manufacturing and almost no agriculture and is dominated by services, especially financial servicesfreetochoose said:
I visited Singapore earlier this year. Spotlessly clean, low unemployment and crime, minimal welfare system, tough immigration laws, should be a model of how to run a country.HYUFD said:
Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends moreBigRich said:
Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.HYUFD said:
Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different storyBigRich said:
And, I'm with you!Philip_Thompson said:
Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?williamglenn said:
You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?Fishing said:
Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.AlastairMeeks said:
Meanwhile, the fruit rots.
Yes. Don't you?
Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!
It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/singapore-rental-racism-prc-and-indian-tenants-often-deemed-undesirable.html0 -
Francois Fillon's current price looks highly unstable to me. He should either be much shorter (if he can shrug off his current troubles) or much longer (if he can't). My instinct says the latter - it just seems to be disintegrating too much for him now to come back from this. But as so often, I could very well be wrong.0
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STV can produce a non-proportional result if a party is particularly unpopular outside its own support base.SandyRentool said:
Fianna Fail got hammered on exactly this basis in 2011 in the Republic of Ireland.0 -
Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."FrancisUrquhart said:Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?
https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/
Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".
What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.
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I've had a rethink on Dolores Kelly, she might still be a live bet.AlastairMeeks said:
STV can produce a non-proportional result if a party is particularly unpopular outside its own support base.SandyRentool said:
Fianna Fail got hammered on exactly this basis in 2011 in the Republic of Ireland.
She gets in if she beats Dobson ?
8238 DUP1
8298 SF1
6169 SF2 <- Toman
5755 UUP1 <- Beattie
5404 UUP2 <- Dobson
5248 SDLP <- Kelly
3097 Alliance (Doyle) votes to distribute.0 -
STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.0
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Tap mic....sniff sniff....FAKE NEWS...with that sort of CV they will be soon economics editor of Newsnight, because having a midlife crisis and becoming a Corbynite.AlsoIndigo said:
Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."FrancisUrquhart said:Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?
https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/
Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".
What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.0 -
Rio Olympics: Lamine Diack’s son ‘paid $2m by Brazilian’ as vote loomed
A Brazilian businessman gave $2m to the son of Lamine Diack, the now disgraced former IAAF president and at the time also an IOC member, just three days before Rio won the right to host the 2016 Olympics, the French newspaper Le Monde has claimed.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/03/rio-olympics-lamine-diack-son-paid-2m-brazilian-vote-ioc0 -
I'm sure the money was just resting in his account.FrancisUrquhart said:Rio Olympics: Lamine Diack’s son ‘paid $2m by Brazilian’ as vote loomed
A Brazilian businessman gave $2m to the son of Lamine Diack, the now disgraced former IAAF president and at the time also an IOC member, just three days before Rio won the right to host the 2016 Olympics, the French newspaper Le Monde has claimed.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/03/rio-olympics-lamine-diack-son-paid-2m-brazilian-vote-ioc0 -
It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence itPulpstar said:STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.
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On the other hand, it seems to have the rather major drawback of making it near-impossible to form a coherent government. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.FF43 said:
It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence itPulpstar said:STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.
0 -
Things that make a cricket fan shudder: "Last over, Brathwaite to bowl it."0
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That is so good.Morris_Dancer said:
0 -
I'm green on whole market other than black swan candidates from nowhere. I win big time if its Juppe, but personally I think Le Pen is one ISIS outrage away from winning and that ISIS will sadly try and oblige.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think the current odds are about right. I've taken advantage of the volatility to even up my position so I'm about equally green on Macron/Juppé/Fillon (red on Le Pen).Pong said:
I've spent the last hour pondering these odds and came to a similar conclusion.Pulpstar said:
Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.Morris_Dancer said:Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.
I've backed Fillon @ 15/1 for a small(ish) sum.
If I could understand french (and had bigger balls), I'd probably lay Juppe @ <4/1 for thousands right now.
In fact, put that bet down as a Pong paper trade.</p>
Edit: I wouldn't lay Juppé because it looks extremely likely that the centre-right will coalesce behind him. Fillon might try to tough it out, but he'll have little support if he does.
One thing which is spooking Fillon's former supporters is the realisation that, although he'd have immunity from prosecution as president (and maybe as a candidate? I'm not sure on that), Mme Fillon wouldn't. He also did himself a lot of harm amongst his supporters by his intemperate attacks on the judges.0 -
Mr. Blue, you may like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z46oREjJLc
Edited extra bit: pretty sure there's another one, but I can't find it.0 -
I would say the problem is the opposite. PR of any kind is a recipe for stasis as you make tweaks to coalitions and nothing substantial changes. There are times when you just need to clear the incumbents out and start again. Not that I am particularly keen on the elected dictatorships that Westminster encourages. STV is certainly the most elegant form of PR if you accept the overall limitations of it.Richard_Nabavi said:
On the other hand, it seems to have the rather major drawback of making it near-impossible to form a coherent government. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.FF43 said:
It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence itPulpstar said:STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.
0 -
Not keen on closed Party List voting systems, plenty of dross ended up at Euro Parliament representing UK. A truly rotten system for rewarding hacks and untalented.0
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https://www.facebook.com/tallyriffic.maps
Someone has produced a probable transfer system for the NI elections.0 -
You could always have STV with a majority prize or something. Smaller constituencies would make it less proportional too, whilst preserving other advantages.FF43 said:
I would say the problem is the opposite. PR of any kind is a recipe for stasis as you make tweaks to coalitions and nothing substantial changes. There are times when you just need to clear the incumbents out and start again. Not that I am particularly keen on the elected dictatorships that Westminster encourages. STV is certainly the most elegant form of PR if you accept the overall limitations of it.Richard_Nabavi said:
On the other hand, it seems to have the rather major drawback of making it near-impossible to form a coherent government. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.FF43 said:
It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence itPulpstar said:STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.
0 -
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trumpFrancisUrquhart said:
Tap mic....sniff sniff....FAKE NEWS...with that sort of CV they will be soon economics editor of Newsnight, because having a midlife crisis and becoming a Corbynite.AlsoIndigo said:
Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."FrancisUrquhart said:Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?
https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/
Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".
What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.0 -
Was a classic era for this sort of tv - Smith & Jones, Not The Nine O Clock News, Spitting Image of course..Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Blue, you may like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z46oREjJLc
Edited extra bit: pretty sure there's another one, but I can't find it.0 -
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdfFF43 said:
It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.chestnut said:
Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.RoyalBlue said:More on NI attitudes to reunification:
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1
The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.
Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf0 -
Yes, read that one before, an incomparably better article. The one in capx is a disgrace, just empty words and handwaving.Jonathan said:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trumpFrancisUrquhart said:
Tap mic....sniff sniff....FAKE NEWS...with that sort of CV they will be soon economics editor of Newsnight, because having a midlife crisis and becoming a Corbynite.AlsoIndigo said:
Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."FrancisUrquhart said:Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?
https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/
Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".
What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.
hand-wav·ing
noun
the use of gestures and insubstantial language meant to impress or convince.0 -
Difficult to believe but this was state of the art when it was made. All done in camera. The biggest conversation piece in Soho edit suites ever.isam said:@SeanT
Massive coincidence! A few years a go I got right into Peter Gabriels music, and even went (alone!) to see him at Earls Court (I think) doing orchestral versions of his songs!
Today his mailing list people have sent me this! Look how he aged between 93 and 03 (The goatee beard/waistcoat to the bike ride)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeYqJxlSv-Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g93mz_eZ5N40 -
Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.chestnut said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdfFF43 said:
It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.chestnut said:
Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.RoyalBlue said:More on NI attitudes to reunification:
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1
The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.
Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf0 -
Sample of the wonders at Tory conference, Fallon: "Because of terrorism on our streets, we need nuclear bombs."0
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The ticket booking website crashed due to demand.malcolmg said:
Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.chestnut said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdfFF43 said:
It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.chestnut said:
Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.RoyalBlue said:More on NI attitudes to reunification:
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1
The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.
Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
0 -
Huzzah for the Tories
The UK is the only developed country in which wages contracted while the economy expanded http://on.ft.com/2lZ0jvt
0 -
http://electionsni.org.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/index.html
Fantastic site to show exactly how the NI elections are going.0 -
Everyone was eager to hear May make the case against a smaller country detaching itself from a larger entity.RobD said:
The ticket booking website crashed due to demand.malcolmg said:
Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.chestnut said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdfFF43 said:
It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.chestnut said:
Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.RoyalBlue said:More on NI attitudes to reunification:
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1
The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.
Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/8376092787856547850 -
Lets hope nobody at AWS has a fat fingered moment again...Pulpstar said:http://electionsni.org.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/index.html
Fantastic site to show exactly how the NI elections are going.0 -
Yeah, a bit of a stupid line!williamglenn said:
Everyone was eager to hear May make the case against a smaller country detaching itself from a larger entity.RobD said:
The ticket booking website crashed due to demand.malcolmg said:
Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.chestnut said:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdfFF43 said:
It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.chestnut said:
Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.RoyalBlue said:More on NI attitudes to reunification:
http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1
The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.
Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/8376092787856547850 -
Stonking transfers for Dolores Kelly from the alliance candidate, 300 ahead of Sinn Fein with only Unionist transfers left.0
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Mr. D, possibly... I wonder if May is trying to encourage comparisons of the UK leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK deliberately. After all, most Scots want to stay in the EU. Comparing the two may not be stupid.
On the other hand, it could just be a poor use of language leading to an obvious and unwanted comparison. Who knows?
Not me. I didn't write the speech.0 -
UK Exports Dec 2016
Non EU - 61%........EU - 39%
0 -
That's one of the greatest music videos ever made, complete genius. Took an absurd of amount of time to put it all together with the stop motion, nothing like it had been done before.Roger said:
Difficult to believe but this was state of the art when it was made. All done in camera. The biggest conversation piece in Soho edit suites ever.isam said:@SeanT
Massive coincidence! A few years a go I got right into Peter Gabriels music, and even went (alone!) to see him at Earls Court (I think) doing orchestral versions of his songs!
Today his mailing list people have sent me this! Look how he aged between 93 and 03 (The goatee beard/waistcoat to the bike ride)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeYqJxlSv-Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g93mz_eZ5N40 -
Rewards bland and uninspiring politicians. The metropolitan elite must love itAlastairMeeks said:
STV can produce a non-proportional result if a party is particularly unpopular outside its own support base.SandyRentool said:
Fianna Fail got hammered on exactly this basis in 2011 in the Republic of Ireland.
0 -
Getting knackered now. I think where I got wrong was the huge increase in rural nationalist turnout.0
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0
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Sturgeon - the poor woman's Gordon Brown?
Paul Goodman:
A few months after he became Prime Minister, Gordon Brown pondered an early general election. This was briefed about by members of his inner political circle who were keen on the idea, and wanted to create a sense of momentum by getting the idea reported. Their efforts were a triumph in one sense at least. Brown’s musings became public. They weren’t denied, and thus gathered pace. That sense of momentum grew. It began to look unstoppable. And by the time it was stopped, the damage had been done. The man who had been marketed in his first months in office as “not flash, just Gordon” looked more like what his dithering had shown him up as: what Alex Salmond called “the big fearty from Fife”.
This tale from the past takes us to the present – and to Salmond’s successor, Nicola Sturgeon. This is because, in feeding speculation about a second referendum on Scottish independence, she is behaving eerily like Brown himself. The polls are not as benign for her now than they were for the former Prime Minister in the summer of 2007. They show no shift towards support for independence. Perhaps Sturgeon sniffs a change in the wind that others are missing. Maybe she is bowing to internal party pressure. But it looks more as though she cannot help but pursue the cause that has let her prosper – regardless of where public opinion in Scotland may be.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/brown-let-talk-of-a-general-election-run-out-of-control-is-sturgeon-doing-the-same-with-an-independence-referendum.html0 -
I'm in Omagh at the FST and WT counts. West Tyrone looks bad but that's a dismal result for Unionism. Should have been two seats there. Same with Mid Ulster and Newry and Armagh. Arlene Foster has cost Unionism a lot of ground. I'm a little bitter about it to be honest.0
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The Football Association wants to test a video assistant referee system from the third round of next year's FA Cup.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/391578870 -
Your tips are looking in slightly better shape than a couple of hours ago though.Lucian_Fletcher said:I'm in Omagh at the FST and WT counts. West Tyrone looks bad but that's a dismal result for Unionism. Should have been two seats there. Same with Mid Ulster and Newry and Armagh. Arlene Foster has cost Unionism a lot of ground. I'm a little bitter about it to be honest.
Dolores Kelly looks like an 11-2 winner
Jemma Dolan (SF) @ 15/8 Fermanagh and South Tyrone £22.85
Dolores Kelly Upper Bann £8.03 @ 11-2
Philip McGuigan (SF) @ 8/15 North Antrim £63.47
Nichola Mallon (SDLP) @ evens Belfast North £21.58
John Stewart (UUP) @ 2/1 East Antrim £11.00
in order of certainty now I think..
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Some stuff on parrainages system of nominations. Juppe only has one. So far...williamglenn said:Another one bites the poussiere.
https://twitter.com/afp/status/837725793556004864
http://www.france24.com/en/20170303-france-fillon-presidential-election-deserters-plead-plan-b-juppe-but-clock-ticking0 -
My guess on total seats is SF 29 DUP 28.0
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LOL . look at that deserted hall, Davidson could not even make a poor woman's Wendy Alexander. We will see what happens , I suspect toom tabards like you will be eating humble pieCarlottaVance said:Sturgeon - the poor woman's Gordon Brown?
Paul Goodman:
A few months after he became Prime Minister, Gordon Brown pondered an early general election. This was briefed about by members of his inner political circle who were keen on the idea, and wanted to create a sense of momentum by getting the idea reported. Their efforts were a triumph in one sense at least. Brown’s musings became public. They weren’t denied, and thus gathered pace. That sense of momentum grew. It began to look unstoppable. And by the time it was stopped, the damage had been done. The man who had been marketed in his first months in office as “not flash, just Gordon” looked more like what his dithering had shown him up as: what Alex Salmond called “the big fearty from Fife”.
This tale from the past takes us to the present – and to Salmond’s successor, Nicola Sturgeon. This is because, in feeding speculation about a second referendum on Scottish independence, she is behaving eerily like Brown himself. The polls are not as benign for her now than they were for the former Prime Minister in the summer of 2007. They show no shift towards support for independence. Perhaps Sturgeon sniffs a change in the wind that others are missing. Maybe she is bowing to internal party pressure. But it looks more as though she cannot help but pursue the cause that has let her prosper – regardless of where public opinion in Scotland may be.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/brown-let-talk-of-a-general-election-run-out-of-control-is-sturgeon-doing-the-same-with-an-independence-referendum.html0 -
On this 'but the Scots didn't know we might leave the EU' - their own government's White Paper told them it was a possibility - three times
In that White Paper, the Scottish Government referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ (pages i and 556). Crucially, it also explicitly raised the prospect of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU resulting in a vote to leave despite a majority of voters in Scotland voting to remain (pages 60, 217 and 460). In other words, although it explicitly highlighted the possibility of a majority of people in the UK as a whole voting to leave the EU while a majority of people in Scotland voted to remain, it still referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation’ opportunity, without any caveat or conditions with regard to future events.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/scotlandinunion/pages/559/attachments/original/1488541426/SIU_Letter_Feb_2017v4a.pdf?14885414260 -
PM Corbyn?williamglenn said:Got those bell-bottoms pressed - we're going back to the 70s!
https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/8376099652212654090 -
I doubt he said that.malcolmg said:Sample of the wonders at Tory conference, Fallon: "Because of terrorism on our streets, we need nuclear bombs."
0 -
Doubt awayCornishBlue said:
I doubt he said that.malcolmg said:Sample of the wonders at Tory conference, Fallon: "Because of terrorism on our streets, we need nuclear bombs."
0 -
Huzzah for mass unskilled immigration more like. That's what has been holding down wages for many. Not the standard reason for all evils, "the Tories".malcolmg said:Huzzah for the Tories
The UK is the only developed country in which wages contracted while the economy expanded http://on.ft.com/2lZ0jvt0 -
Roger McGough's poetry loses a lot when not read by himRestharrow said:
I've been out. Have we mentioned Roger McGough:MarqueeMark said:
I'd settle for inadvertently discovering a new species of incredibly toxic tree frog.....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?
https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/let-me-die-a-youngman-s-death/0 -
Read her lips: the devolution settlement is no more. Future is ever closer union UK style. http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2017/03/theresa-may-speech-to-scottish-conservative-conference/ … pic.twitter.com/GOkUhrj6lM0
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Interestingly exports to the EU were sharply down since the month before, but up by more than those those to the non EU year on year. Is there a big seasonal effect that means EU exports drop dramatically in December?nunu said:
Wow. A real re-balancing if ever there was one.chestnut said:UK Exports Dec 2016
Non EU - 61%........EU - 39%0 -
This discussion has been closed.