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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A grim set of local by-elections for Corbyn’s LAB losing a sea

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  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited March 2017
    SeanT said:

    isam said:

    Having considered the matter carefully, I would prefer not to die.

    One of my fav quotes on death comes from... Scooby Doo!!

    Cant remember the exact situation, but there were three old men in a room and a bomb was heading for the building I think...

    "I'm too young to die"
    "I'm too old to die!"
    "I'm too scared to die!!"
    I watched the finale of Hell on Wheels last night (yet another compelling TV series, by the way)

    It had this oddly compelling quote, when the cynical politician says to the dashing hero (now a little wizened, and considering his future)

    "You are not yet an old man, Mister Bohannan. But you are no longer young."

    Brrr..


    At least you weren't Syd Barrett! World record selling albums devoted to how you wasted your youth/life
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Mr. Ilef, not only that, Wales has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the GDP. Not great stats for independence.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Pulpstar said:

    Sinn Fein have a chance of being largest party I think.

    Would May impose direct rule immediately following such a big symbolic moment?
    If they don't play nice does she have an option
    ?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Get well soon Mr Smithson.

    Did I miss something, is OGH poorly as well?

    Sympathies. It's like a Casualty ward in here, today.
    Check out the last thread header, this is what Mike wrote

    For the third Friday in a row I’m off to hospital this morning after being one of those who’ve added to this winter’s unprecedented demand on the NHS.
    .
    My bet is on your not dying in hospital ;)
    I'd like to die like Atilla the Hun. Or Lord Palmerston.
    I want to die on my 100th birthday, and I want my wife to be so upset, that she cancels her 21st birthday party as a mark of respect.
    I want to die sometime in my late 80s or early 90s, a late summer's day somewhere in the north of England, dozing off gently after a hearty lunch,an inconsequential end-of-rubber test match ambling towards a happy conclusion on the radio, the chatter children and grandchildren from elsewhere in the building, maybe the shout of the odd great-grandchild...

    Alright, I wouldn't wish the discovery of their dead father on my children. But as a way to round off a life, it seems pretty unbeatable.
    I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather, not screaming in terror like his passengers.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Is Fillon's rally on Sunday?

    I think so. Can you make it ?

    I reckon he will be quite defiant there.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2017
    Actually in percentage terms Kersal is the most Jewish ward, it's the fifth highest in absolute numbers. The London wards have a much higher overall population.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    HYUFD said:

    Golly, surely that would be a big symbolic moment?

    Has there been any analysis of the NI election through the Brexit lens? I'm guessing it must have had some effect.
    Brexit really has shaken the kaleidoscope of politics in four parts of the UK.

    Just think if it were to happen, two secessionist parties would have the most seats in 2 out of the 3 devolved parliaments/assemblies.
    The English Democrats' moment has surely arrived.
    Shame on you for forgetting Plaid Cymru!
    Wales seems to have gone weirdly kippery..
    Wales is more pro May and Brexit than London
    Wales, is the one place that I can see UKIP picking up a few seats in the LG elections this May.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Mr. Pulpstar, you tinker. I certainly shan't be attending, the imbecile ought to stand down.
  • Options
    llefllef Posts: 298

    Mr. Ilef, not only that, Wales has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the GDP. Not great stats for independence.

    yep, to mis-quote Porfirio Diaz: "Poor Wales, so far from God and so close to England!"
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited March 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Actually in percentage terms Kersal is the most Jewish ward, it's the fifth highest in absolute numbers. The London wards have a much higher overall population.

    At the risk of getting a bit uncle Albert "When I woz at Brighton Uni..." the place was full of Corbynites, before anyone knew what a Corbynite was. The tutors were hard left, SWPers.. and they HATED Israel

    I should imagine the majority of people there are more willing to give Labour a hearing now than when EdM was in charge. Here is one of the lecturers

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jdPGhq2QbQ

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Mr. Pulpstar, you tinker. I certainly shan't be attending, the imbecile ought to stand down.

    I stand avec Fillon.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Cyan said:

    Nominations so far:

    1155 FILLON François
    464 MACRON Emmanuel
    334 HAMON Benoît
    314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
    205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
    163 CHEMINADE Jacques
    136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
    84 LE PEN Marine
    70 LASSALLE Jean
    60 ASSELINEAU François
    36 POUTOU Philippe

    105 OTHERS

    That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Chris_A said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    #NIreland (33% counted)
    #DUP: 27% (-2)
    #SF: 27% (+3)
    #UUP: 14% (+1)
    #SDLP: 12%
    #A: 9% (+2)
    #TUV: 3% (-1)
    #Green: 3%
    #PbP: 1% (-1) #AE17

    Apparently.

    If it is tied between the DUP and SF that means neither will give an inch to the other and a UUP + SDLP + Alliance deal is not impossible with Mike Nesbitt as First Minister
    I don't think that's possible, is it? Doesn't the Stormont House agreement reserve the FM/DFM positions for the largest party in each of the two respective sections?
    As I've asked before which section do the Alliance come in? The GFA seems to be perpetuating sectarian divide rather than ending it.
    There's a 'non-aligned' section as well, I think?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    edited March 2017
    Mr. Isam, 40s of that self-righteous prig was quite enough.

    I wasn't in this particular lecture, but at the time of the Danish cartoon nonsense, a lecturer at my university was bleating about how horrendous the cartoons were. Fortunately, he already had a reputation as an oaf, so I imagine his influence was minimal.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Pulpstar, boo hiss to Fillon!
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Cyan said:

    Nominations so far:

    1155 FILLON François
    464 MACRON Emmanuel
    334 HAMON Benoît
    314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
    205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
    163 CHEMINADE Jacques
    136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
    84 LE PEN Marine
    70 LASSALLE Jean
    60 ASSELINEAU François
    36 POUTOU Philippe

    105 OTHERS

    That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?
    My understanding is that the nominations are personal, not party based, so they can both be properly nominated. As you can see the numbers at this point are a bit arbitrary.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Get well soon Mr Smithson.

    Did I miss something, is OGH poorly as well?

    Sympathies. It's like a Casualty ward in here, today.
    Check out the last thread header, this is what Mike wrote

    For the third Friday in a row I’m off to hospital this morning after being one of those who’ve added to this winter’s unprecedented demand on the NHS.
    .
    My bet is on your not dying in hospital ;)
    I'd like to die like Atilla the Hun. Or Lord Palmerston.
    I want to die on my 100th birthday, and I want my wife to be so upset, that she cancels her 21st birthday party as a mark of respect.
    I want to die sometime in my late 80s or early 90s, a late summer's day somewhere in the north of England, dozing off gently after a hearty lunch,an inconsequential end-of-rubber test match ambling towards a happy conclusion on the radio, the chatter children and grandchildren from elsewhere in the building, maybe the shout of the odd great-grandchild...

    Alright, I wouldn't wish the discovery of their dead father on my children. But as a way to round off a life, it seems pretty unbeatable.
    Pretty much exactly how my father-in-law went (he didn't quite make 80, but got closer than he'd have expected to given where he started from). Just fell out of his chair one Sunday afternoon while watching the footie.

    Good for him. Not much fun for his wife who was sitting next to him, mind.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Cyan said:

    Nominations so far:

    1155 FILLON François
    464 MACRON Emmanuel
    334 HAMON Benoît
    314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
    205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
    163 CHEMINADE Jacques
    136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
    84 LE PEN Marine
    70 LASSALLE Jean
    60 ASSELINEAU François
    36 POUTOU Philippe

    105 OTHERS

    That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?
    Juppe and Fillon both on the ballot would be great news for Macron and Le Pen.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited March 2017
    @SeanT

    Massive coincidence! A few years a go I got right into Peter Gabriels music, and even went (alone!) to see him at Earls Court (I think) doing orchestral versions of his songs!

    Today his mailing list people have sent me this! Look how he aged between 93 and 03 (The goatee beard/waistcoat to the bike ride)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeYqJxlSv-Y
  • Options
    llefllef Posts: 298
    I remember it well - I'm sure it was a price worth paying ... if you lived in the Shires or the South East of England..
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited March 2017

    Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.

    Le croque monsieur, surely?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.

    Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790
    Pulpstar said:

    Final
    First preferences

    DUP 28.1 (-1.1)
    SF 27.9 (+3.9)
    UUP 12.9 (+0.3)
    SDLP 11.9 (-0.1)
    Alliance 9.1 (+2.1)
    TUV 2.6 (-0.9)
    Greens 2.3 (-0.4)
    PBP 1.8 (-0.2)

    I think a referendum on NI rejoining the republic would be immensely close.
    I was surprised to see in an opinion poll not that long ago that the preferred constitutional settlement of 25% of Sinn Fein supporters was to stay in the UK
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Final
    First preferences

    DUP 28.1 (-1.1)
    SF 27.9 (+3.9)
    UUP 12.9 (+0.3)
    SDLP 11.9 (-0.1)
    Alliance 9.1 (+2.1)
    TUV 2.6 (-0.9)
    Greens 2.3 (-0.4)
    PBP 1.8 (-0.2)

    I think a referendum on NI rejoining the republic would be immensely close.
    I was surprised to see in an opinion poll not that long ago that the preferred constitutional settlement of 25% of Sinn Fein supporters was to stay in the UK
    Blimey !

    I think alot will depend on Brexit though..
  • Options
    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyan said:

    Nominations so far:

    1155 FILLON François
    464 MACRON Emmanuel
    334 HAMON Benoît
    314 ARTHAUD Nathalie
    205 DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas
    163 CHEMINADE Jacques
    136 MELENCHON Jean-Luc
    84 LE PEN Marine
    70 LASSALLE Jean
    60 ASSELINEAU François
    36 POUTOU Philippe

    105 OTHERS

    That's interesting. *Can* Fillon withdraw / be replaced if these nominations are already in? Presumably there are enough LR qualified nominees who could put Juppe or whoever on the ballot but would that necessarily mean Fillon leaving it?
    Juppe and Fillon both on the ballot would be great news for Macron and Le Pen.
    Pretty sure he CAN withdraw. You cannot force someone to be on the ballot paper against their will. The question is, WILL the stubborn goat withdraw or would he prefer to hand the contest to Le Pen and Macron out of spite.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Mr. Pulpstar, indeed.

    Mr. Meeks, I bow to your superior knowledge of Frenchist cuisine.

    Mr. Ilef, I only meant the video as a spot of light relief (whilst also highlighting the economic impact of an independent Wales on its economy).
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    I was at White Hart Lane when a man suffered a massive heart attack after celebrating a Spurs goal, I remember thinking that was probably as good as any way to go, albeit inconvenient for those around him.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?

    I'd settle for inadvertently discovering a new species of incredibly toxic tree frog.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Sinn Fein have a chance of being largest party I think.

    The DUP are already largest party on first preference votes, albeit narrowly
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.

    Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.
    I've spent the last hour pondering these odds and came to a similar conclusion.

    I've backed Fillon @ 15/1 for a small(ish) sum.

    If I could understand french (and had bigger balls), I'd probably lay Juppe @ <4/1 for thousands right now.

    In fact, put that bet down as a Pong paper trade.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790
    chestnut said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    More on NI attitudes to reunification:

    http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1

    The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.

    Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.

    Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
    It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited March 2017
    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    Fishing said:



    Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

    Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.
    You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?
    Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?

    Yes. Don't you?
    And, I'm with you!

    Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!

    Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different story
    Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.

    It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.
    Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends more
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    SeanT said:

    Cookie said:

    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Get well soon Mr Smithson.

    Did I miss something, is OGH poorly as well?

    Sympathies. It's like a Casualty ward in here, today.
    Check out the last thread header, this is what Mike wrote

    For the third Friday in a row I’m off to hospital this morning after being one of those who’ve added to this winter’s unprecedented demand on the NHS.
    .
    My bet is on your not dying in hospital ;)
    I'd like to die like Atilla the Hun. Or Lord Palmerston.
    I want to die on my 100th birthday, and I want my wife to be so upset, that she cancels her 21st birthday party as a mark of respect.
    I want to die sometime in my late 80s or early 90s, a late summer's day somewhere in the north of England, dozing off gently after a hearty lunch,an inconsequential end-of-rubber test match ambling towards a happy conclusion on the radio, the chatter children and grandchildren from elsewhere in the building, maybe the shout of the odd great-grandchild...

    Alright, I wouldn't wish the discovery of their dead father on my children. But as a way to round off a life, it seems pretty unbeatable.
    Close to the death of Nobel Laureate William Golding, a death which was also, I might add, caused by my father.

    This is the story: Golding lived in Cornwall, in Perranaworthal, quite near my father's house in Truro. Golding invited my dad over for a literary/family supper party. Apparently there was much hilarity, and wine drinking, and singing of songs, and Golding had all his kids and grandkids there and it was greatly enjoyed by all.

    My dad was the last to leave, everyone else had gone to bed. Golding was about to join them, when my Dad persuaded him to open one more bottle of red, which they shared, late into the night.

    Golding died in his sleep that night, of a heart attack.

    A good way to go, but my Dad rightly wonders if Golding might still be alive, if he hadn't persuaded him to down another pint of claret.
    You're a chip off the old block, then - and I mean that in a good way.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sinn Fein have a chance of being largest party I think.

    The DUP are already largest party on first preference votes, albeit narrowly
    The largest party doesn't necessarily win, because they are using a proportional system.


    Hang on a minute.....?!?!?!?!?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Pulpstar said:

    England 141-4 in the test. A shaky start but I think we can rebuild.

    At a current strike rate of around 50, Mr B Stokes not quite looking like a £1.7m man...
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    Fishing said:



    Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

    Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.
    You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?
    Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?

    Yes. Don't you?
    And, I'm with you!

    Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!

    Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different story
    Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.

    It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.
    Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends more
    I visited Singapore earlier this year. Spotlessly clean, low unemployment and crime, minimal welfare system, tough immigration laws, should be a model of how to run a country.
  • Options
    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?

    I'd settle for inadvertently discovering a new species of incredibly toxic tree frog.....
    I've been out. Have we mentioned Roger McGough:

    https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/let-me-die-a-youngman-s-death/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    Fishing said:



    Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

    Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.
    You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?
    Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?

    Yes. Don't you?
    And, I'm with you!

    Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!

    Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different story
    Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.

    It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.
    Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends more
    I visited Singapore earlier this year. Spotlessly clean, low unemployment and crime, minimal welfare system, tough immigration laws, should be a model of how to run a country.
    Singapore works for a very wealthy city state, it is the equivalent of London, it is not the equivalent of the UK, Malaysia is. Singapore also has little manufacturing and almost no agriculture and is dominated by services, especially financial services
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Got those bell-bottoms pressed - we're going back to the 70s!

    https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/837609965221265409
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2017
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.

    Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.
    I've spent the last hour pondering these odds and came to a similar conclusion.

    I've backed Fillon @ 15/1 for a small(ish) sum.

    If I could understand french (and had bigger balls), I'd probably lay Juppe @ <4/1 for thousands right now.

    In fact, put that bet down as a Pong paper trade.</p>
    I think the current odds are about right. I've taken advantage of the volatility to even up my position so I'm about equally green on Macron/Juppé/Fillon (red on Le Pen).

    Edit: I wouldn't lay Juppé because it looks extremely likely that the centre-right will coalesce behind him. Fillon might try to tough it out, but he'll have little support if he does.

    One thing which is spooking Fillon's former supporters is the realisation that, although he'd have immunity from prosecution as president (and maybe as a candidate? I'm not sure on that), Mme Fillon wouldn't. He also did himself a lot of harm amongst his supporters by his intemperate attacks on the judges.
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    llefllef Posts: 298

    Mr. Pulpstar, indeed.

    Mr. Meeks, I bow to your superior knowledge of Frenchist cuisine.

    Mr. Ilef, I only meant the video as a spot of light relief (whilst also highlighting the economic impact of an independent Wales on its economy).

    Fair enough - trouble is that its hard to see Wales relinquishing its position at the bottom of the UK heap if the Status Quo is maintained, yet independence would bring even more problems in the short and medium terms.. and as we know, in the long term, we are all dead!
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    llefllef Posts: 298
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    Fishing said:



    Meanwhile, the fruit rots.

    Eh? Fruit-picking is exactly the kind of low wage, low productivity industry kept alive by cheap immigrant labour that this country should no longer be in. It manages a dismal trifecta, using land, labour and capital inefficiently.
    You want to create a Singapore for 60 million then?
    Do I want to create a confident, successful, wealthy nation for 60 million?

    Yes. Don't you?
    And, I'm with you!

    Singapore is 94% more wealthy per person than the UK, better education, better healthcare, and taxis only half the level in the UK, I would copy there economic position in a jot!!!

    Singapore is basically the equivalent of central London, if you include Malaysia too (which Singapore used to be part of) you get the equivalent of the UK and a rather different story
    Singapore, is wealthy and successful, because it has adopted a very free economy, the total tax take is only 20% of GDP, it has almost no import tariffs, the interest rate is set by the market, not civil servants.

    It is also about the size of London, in area and population, ish, but when you look at how fast the economy has grown and continues to grow, it is clearly more than just being a city state.
    Singapore is dominated by financial services like inner London and is very wealthy and with little need for much public sector, the UK is a rather different story and indeed Malaysia too has a higher tax take and spends more
    I visited Singapore earlier this year. Spotlessly clean, low unemployment and crime, minimal welfare system, tough immigration laws, should be a model of how to run a country.
    Singapore works for a very wealthy city state, it is the equivalent of London, it is not the equivalent of the UK, Malaysia is. Singapore also has little manufacturing and almost no agriculture and is dominated by services, especially financial services
    Perhaps Singapore is not so great if you are Malay or Indian...

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/singapore-rental-racism-prc-and-indian-tenants-often-deemed-undesirable.html
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Francois Fillon's current price looks highly unstable to me. He should either be much shorter (if he can shrug off his current troubles) or much longer (if he can't). My instinct says the latter - it just seems to be disintegrating too much for him now to come back from this. But as so often, I could very well be wrong.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sinn Fein have a chance of being largest party I think.

    The DUP are already largest party on first preference votes, albeit narrowly
    The largest party doesn't necessarily win, because they are using a proportional system.


    Hang on a minute.....?!?!?!?!?
    STV can produce a non-proportional result if a party is particularly unpopular outside its own support base.

    Fianna Fail got hammered on exactly this basis in 2011 in the Republic of Ireland.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?

    https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/

    Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."

    Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".

    What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sinn Fein have a chance of being largest party I think.

    The DUP are already largest party on first preference votes, albeit narrowly
    The largest party doesn't necessarily win, because they are using a proportional system.


    Hang on a minute.....?!?!?!?!?
    STV can produce a non-proportional result if a party is particularly unpopular outside its own support base.

    Fianna Fail got hammered on exactly this basis in 2011 in the Republic of Ireland.
    I've had a rethink on Dolores Kelly, she might still be a live bet.

    She gets in if she beats Dobson ?

    8238 DUP1
    8298 SF1
    6169 SF2 <- Toman
    5755 UUP1 <- Beattie
    5404 UUP2 <- Dobson
    5248 SDLP <- Kelly

    3097 Alliance (Doyle) votes to distribute.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?

    https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/

    Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."

    Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".

    What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.

    Tap mic....sniff sniff....FAKE NEWS...with that sort of CV they will be soon economics editor of Newsnight, because having a midlife crisis and becoming a Corbynite.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited March 2017
    Rio Olympics: Lamine Diack’s son ‘paid $2m by Brazilian’ as vote loomed

    A Brazilian businessman gave $2m to the son of Lamine Diack, the now disgraced former IAAF president and at the time also an IOC member, just three days before Rio won the right to host the 2016 Olympics, the French newspaper Le Monde has claimed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/03/rio-olympics-lamine-diack-son-paid-2m-brazilian-vote-ioc
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Rio Olympics: Lamine Diack’s son ‘paid $2m by Brazilian’ as vote loomed

    A Brazilian businessman gave $2m to the son of Lamine Diack, the now disgraced former IAAF president and at the time also an IOC member, just three days before Rio won the right to host the 2016 Olympics, the French newspaper Le Monde has claimed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/03/rio-olympics-lamine-diack-son-paid-2m-brazilian-vote-ioc

    I'm sure the money was just resting in his account.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790
    Pulpstar said:

    STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.

    It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence it
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.

    It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence it
    On the other hand, it seems to have the rather major drawback of making it near-impossible to form a coherent government. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Things that make a cricket fan shudder: "Last over, Brathwaite to bowl it."
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426

    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Juppe and Le Pen both 4.3 on Betfair. Punters clearly believe Fillon is le toast.

    Punters aren't always right. This has shades of Rubio odds on about it tbh.
    I've spent the last hour pondering these odds and came to a similar conclusion.

    I've backed Fillon @ 15/1 for a small(ish) sum.

    If I could understand french (and had bigger balls), I'd probably lay Juppe @ <4/1 for thousands right now.

    In fact, put that bet down as a Pong paper trade.</p>
    I think the current odds are about right. I've taken advantage of the volatility to even up my position so I'm about equally green on Macron/Juppé/Fillon (red on Le Pen).

    Edit: I wouldn't lay Juppé because it looks extremely likely that the centre-right will coalesce behind him. Fillon might try to tough it out, but he'll have little support if he does.

    One thing which is spooking Fillon's former supporters is the realisation that, although he'd have immunity from prosecution as president (and maybe as a candidate? I'm not sure on that), Mme Fillon wouldn't. He also did himself a lot of harm amongst his supporters by his intemperate attacks on the judges.
    I'm green on whole market other than black swan candidates from nowhere. I win big time if its Juppe, but personally I think Le Pen is one ISIS outrage away from winning and that ISIS will sadly try and oblige.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    edited March 2017
    Mr. Blue, you may like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z46oREjJLc

    Edited extra bit: pretty sure there's another one, but I can't find it.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790
    edited March 2017

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.

    It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence it
    On the other hand, it seems to have the rather major drawback of making it near-impossible to form a coherent government. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.
    I would say the problem is the opposite. PR of any kind is a recipe for stasis as you make tweaks to coalitions and nothing substantial changes. There are times when you just need to clear the incumbents out and start again. Not that I am particularly keen on the elected dictatorships that Westminster encourages. STV is certainly the most elegant form of PR if you accept the overall limitations of it.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Not keen on closed Party List voting systems, plenty of dross ended up at Euro Parliament representing UK. A truly rotten system for rewarding hacks and untalented.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    https://www.facebook.com/tallyriffic.maps

    Someone has produced a probable transfer system for the NI elections.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    STV is a great system. Rewards smart voters & parties in terms of transfers.

    It also allows good candidates to be chosen over rentseekers. So a constituency is guaranteed to deliver at least one SF and UUP MP and maybe another one for each of those parties. As a candidate you want to be top ranked so you get the guaranteed slot rather than the competitive or hopeless slots. It puts that decision in the hands of the voters, although parties can influence it
    On the other hand, it seems to have the rather major drawback of making it near-impossible to form a coherent government. Swings and roundabouts, I guess.
    I would say the problem is the opposite. PR of any kind is a recipe for stasis as you make tweaks to coalitions and nothing substantial changes. There are times when you just need to clear the incumbents out and start again. Not that I am particularly keen on the elected dictatorships that Westminster encourages. STV is certainly the most elegant form of PR if you accept the overall limitations of it.
    You could always have STV with a majority prize or something. Smaller constituencies would make it less proportional too, whilst preserving other advantages.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,907

    Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?

    https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/

    Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."

    Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".

    What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.

    Tap mic....sniff sniff....FAKE NEWS...with that sort of CV they will be soon economics editor of Newsnight, because having a midlife crisis and becoming a Corbynite.
    http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trump
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    Mr. Blue, you may like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z46oREjJLc

    Edited extra bit: pretty sure there's another one, but I can't find it.

    Was a classic era for this sort of tv - Smith & Jones, Not The Nine O Clock News, Spitting Image of course..
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    FF43 said:

    chestnut said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    More on NI attitudes to reunification:

    http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1

    The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.

    Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.

    Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
    It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdf

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Jonathan said:

    Did the dark lords of data really win it for Trump?

    https://capx.co/did-the-dark-lords-of-data-really-win-it-for-trump/

    Christ on a bike. Work experience at a gadget mag 6 years ago. Degree in Journalism 3 years ago at UCL then a set of journo jobs for the indie and the mirror writing about "cats, migrants crossing the Med, benefit sanctions, gun control in the US, housing benefit millionaires, forced marriage, assisted suicide, and railway privatisation, among other topics."

    Another Journo that knows feck all about either IT or Psychology, or much of anything pontificating about what we can and can't learn from big data because of "goes against everything we know about how humans work".

    What is capx coming to posting this sort of uninformed drivel.

    Tap mic....sniff sniff....FAKE NEWS...with that sort of CV they will be soon economics editor of Newsnight, because having a midlife crisis and becoming a Corbynite.
    http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trump
    Yes, read that one before, an incomparably better article. The one in capx is a disgrace, just empty words and handwaving.

    hand-wav·ing
    noun
    the use of gestures and insubstantial language meant to impress or convince.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,898
    edited March 2017
    isam said:

    @SeanT

    Massive coincidence! A few years a go I got right into Peter Gabriels music, and even went (alone!) to see him at Earls Court (I think) doing orchestral versions of his songs!

    Today his mailing list people have sent me this! Look how he aged between 93 and 03 (The goatee beard/waistcoat to the bike ride)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeYqJxlSv-Y

    Difficult to believe but this was state of the art when it was made. All done in camera. The biggest conversation piece in Soho edit suites ever.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g93mz_eZ5N4
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,074
    edited March 2017
    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    chestnut said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    More on NI attitudes to reunification:

    http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1

    The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.

    Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.

    Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
    It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdf

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
    Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,074
    edited March 2017
    Sample of the wonders at Tory conference, Fallon: "Because of terrorism on our streets, we need nuclear bombs."
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    malcolmg said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    chestnut said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    More on NI attitudes to reunification:

    http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1

    The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.

    Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.

    Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
    It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdf

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
    Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.
    The ticket booking website crashed due to demand. :smiley:
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,074
    Huzzah for the Tories
    The UK is the only developed country in which wages contracted while the economy expanded http://on.ft.com/2lZ0jvt
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    http://electionsni.org.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/index.html

    Fantastic site to show exactly how the NI elections are going.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    chestnut said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    More on NI attitudes to reunification:

    http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1

    The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.

    Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.

    Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
    It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdf

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
    Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.
    The ticket booking website crashed due to demand. :smiley:
    Everyone was eager to hear May make the case against a smaller country detaching itself from a larger entity.

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/837609278785654785
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsni.org.s3-website-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/index.html

    Fantastic site to show exactly how the NI elections are going.

    Lets hope nobody at AWS has a fat fingered moment again...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    chestnut said:

    FF43 said:

    chestnut said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    More on NI attitudes to reunification:

    http://endgameinulster.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/lucid-talk-opinion-poll.html?m=1

    The union looks pretty safe on that basis. I don't think a campaign would change many minds and it would be very ugly.

    Nearly 30% of SNP voters do not support Scottish independence.

    Nationalist parties often morph into pressure groups. See UKIP.
    It's normally 10-15% of SNP who don't support independence (and contrariwise 85% of independence supporters intend to vote SNP). It's important to compare CURRENT voting intentions as support fot the SNP and independence fluctuates in lockstep.
    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bpmbr27tkv/InternalResults_170126_Scotland.pdf

    http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F10131Wingstablesforpublication170217.pdf
    Just looked at pictures of the resurgent Tory party conference in Scotland. Oh dear what idiot booked the SEC, they must have been listening to the Klaxon. Empty does not begin to describe the hall, unbelievably embarrassing.
    The ticket booking website crashed due to demand. :smiley:
    Everyone was eager to hear May make the case against a smaller country detaching itself from a larger entity.

    https://twitter.com/katie_martin_fx/status/837609278785654785
    Yeah, a bit of a stupid line!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Stonking transfers for Dolores Kelly from the alliance candidate, 300 ahead of Sinn Fein with only Unionist transfers left.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,006
    Mr. D, possibly... I wonder if May is trying to encourage comparisons of the UK leaving the EU and Scotland leaving the UK deliberately. After all, most Scots want to stay in the EU. Comparing the two may not be stupid.

    On the other hand, it could just be a poor use of language leading to an obvious and unwanted comparison. Who knows?

    Not me. I didn't write the speech.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    UK Exports Dec 2016

    Non EU - 61%........EU - 39%

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Roger said:

    isam said:

    @SeanT

    Massive coincidence! A few years a go I got right into Peter Gabriels music, and even went (alone!) to see him at Earls Court (I think) doing orchestral versions of his songs!

    Today his mailing list people have sent me this! Look how he aged between 93 and 03 (The goatee beard/waistcoat to the bike ride)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeYqJxlSv-Y

    Difficult to believe but this was state of the art when it was made. All done in camera. The biggest conversation piece in Soho edit suites ever.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g93mz_eZ5N4
    That's one of the greatest music videos ever made, complete genius. Took an absurd of amount of time to put it all together with the stop motion, nothing like it had been done before.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sinn Fein have a chance of being largest party I think.

    The DUP are already largest party on first preference votes, albeit narrowly
    The largest party doesn't necessarily win, because they are using a proportional system.


    Hang on a minute.....?!?!?!?!?
    STV can produce a non-proportional result if a party is particularly unpopular outside its own support base.

    Fianna Fail got hammered on exactly this basis in 2011 in the Republic of Ireland.
    Rewards bland and uninspiring politicians. The metropolitan elite must love it :)
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    Getting knackered now. I think where I got wrong was the huge increase in rural nationalist turnout.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Another one bites the poussiere.

    https://twitter.com/afp/status/837725793556004864
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Sturgeon - the poor woman's Gordon Brown?

    Paul Goodman:

    A few months after he became Prime Minister, Gordon Brown pondered an early general election. This was briefed about by members of his inner political circle who were keen on the idea, and wanted to create a sense of momentum by getting the idea reported. Their efforts were a triumph in one sense at least. Brown’s musings became public. They weren’t denied, and thus gathered pace. That sense of momentum grew. It began to look unstoppable. And by the time it was stopped, the damage had been done. The man who had been marketed in his first months in office as “not flash, just Gordon” looked more like what his dithering had shown him up as: what Alex Salmond called “the big fearty from Fife”.

    This tale from the past takes us to the present – and to Salmond’s successor, Nicola Sturgeon. This is because, in feeding speculation about a second referendum on Scottish independence, she is behaving eerily like Brown himself. The polls are not as benign for her now than they were for the former Prime Minister in the summer of 2007. They show no shift towards support for independence. Perhaps Sturgeon sniffs a change in the wind that others are missing. Maybe she is bowing to internal party pressure. But it looks more as though she cannot help but pursue the cause that has let her prosper – regardless of where public opinion in Scotland may be.


    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/brown-let-talk-of-a-general-election-run-out-of-control-is-sturgeon-doing-the-same-with-an-independence-referendum.html
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    I'm in Omagh at the FST and WT counts. West Tyrone looks bad but that's a dismal result for Unionism. Should have been two seats there. Same with Mid Ulster and Newry and Armagh. Arlene Foster has cost Unionism a lot of ground. I'm a little bitter about it to be honest.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    The Football Association wants to test a video assistant referee system from the third round of next year's FA Cup.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39157887
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    chestnut said:

    UK Exports Dec 2016

    Non EU - 61%........EU - 39%

    Wow. A real re-balancing if ever there was one.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    I'm in Omagh at the FST and WT counts. West Tyrone looks bad but that's a dismal result for Unionism. Should have been two seats there. Same with Mid Ulster and Newry and Armagh. Arlene Foster has cost Unionism a lot of ground. I'm a little bitter about it to be honest.

    Your tips are looking in slightly better shape than a couple of hours ago though.

    Dolores Kelly looks like an 11-2 winner :)

    Jemma Dolan (SF) @ 15/8 Fermanagh and South Tyrone £22.85
    Dolores Kelly Upper Bann £8.03 @ 11-2
    Philip McGuigan (SF) @ 8/15 North Antrim £63.47
    Nichola Mallon (SDLP) @ evens Belfast North £21.58
    John Stewart (UUP) @ 2/1 East Antrim £11.00

    in order of certainty now I think..

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438
    My guess on total seats is SF 29 DUP 28.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,074

    Sturgeon - the poor woman's Gordon Brown?

    Paul Goodman:

    A few months after he became Prime Minister, Gordon Brown pondered an early general election. This was briefed about by members of his inner political circle who were keen on the idea, and wanted to create a sense of momentum by getting the idea reported. Their efforts were a triumph in one sense at least. Brown’s musings became public. They weren’t denied, and thus gathered pace. That sense of momentum grew. It began to look unstoppable. And by the time it was stopped, the damage had been done. The man who had been marketed in his first months in office as “not flash, just Gordon” looked more like what his dithering had shown him up as: what Alex Salmond called “the big fearty from Fife”.

    This tale from the past takes us to the present – and to Salmond’s successor, Nicola Sturgeon. This is because, in feeding speculation about a second referendum on Scottish independence, she is behaving eerily like Brown himself. The polls are not as benign for her now than they were for the former Prime Minister in the summer of 2007. They show no shift towards support for independence. Perhaps Sturgeon sniffs a change in the wind that others are missing. Maybe she is bowing to internal party pressure. But it looks more as though she cannot help but pursue the cause that has let her prosper – regardless of where public opinion in Scotland may be.


    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/03/brown-let-talk-of-a-general-election-run-out-of-control-is-sturgeon-doing-the-same-with-an-independence-referendum.html

    LOL . look at that deserted hall, Davidson could not even make a poor woman's Wendy Alexander. We will see what happens , I suspect toom tabards like you will be eating humble pie
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    On this 'but the Scots didn't know we might leave the EU' - their own government's White Paper told them it was a possibility - three times

    In that White Paper, the Scottish Government referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ (pages i and 556). Crucially, it also explicitly raised the prospect of a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU resulting in a vote to leave despite a majority of voters in Scotland voting to remain (pages 60, 217 and 460). In other words, although it explicitly highlighted the possibility of a majority of people in the UK as a whole voting to leave the EU while a majority of people in Scotland voted to remain, it still referred to the referendum as a ‘once in a generation’ opportunity, without any caveat or conditions with regard to future events.

    https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/scotlandinunion/pages/559/attachments/original/1488541426/SIU_Letter_Feb_2017v4a.pdf?1488541426
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Got those bell-bottoms pressed - we're going back to the 70s!

    https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/837609965221265409

    PM Corbyn?
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    malcolmg said:

    Sample of the wonders at Tory conference, Fallon: "Because of terrorism on our streets, we need nuclear bombs."

    I doubt he said that.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,074

    malcolmg said:

    Sample of the wonders at Tory conference, Fallon: "Because of terrorism on our streets, we need nuclear bombs."

    I doubt he said that.
    Doubt away
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    malcolmg said:

    Huzzah for the Tories
    The UK is the only developed country in which wages contracted while the economy expanded http://on.ft.com/2lZ0jvt

    Huzzah for mass unskilled immigration more like. That's what has been holding down wages for many. Not the standard reason for all evils, "the Tories".
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,898

    Mr. Cookie, what about dying heroically? Landing a jumbo jet having wrestled control from a terrorist hijacker, then bleeding out?

    I'd settle for inadvertently discovering a new species of incredibly toxic tree frog.....
    I've been out. Have we mentioned Roger McGough:

    https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/let-me-die-a-youngman-s-death/
    Roger McGough's poetry loses a lot when not read by him
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,074
    Read her lips: the devolution settlement is no more. Future is ever closer union UK style. http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2017/03/theresa-may-speech-to-scottish-conservative-conference/ … pic.twitter.com/GOkUhrj6lM
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790
    nunu said:

    chestnut said:

    UK Exports Dec 2016

    Non EU - 61%........EU - 39%

    Wow. A real re-balancing if ever there was one.
    Interestingly exports to the EU were sharply down since the month before, but up by more than those those to the non EU year on year. Is there a big seasonal effect that means EU exports drop dramatically in December?
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