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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vot
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI
Amongst all giving a voting intention LAB was 5% ahead
See chart pic.twitter.com/8GuTYRRqlH
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Lab 38 (-2)
Con 33 (+3)
LD 11(+1)
Kippers 9 (-1)
So there definitely has been a narrowing
Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/
Are you alleging that the energy suppliers are colluding or co-ordinating price fixing?
If so, there has been a regulatory failure at best or criminal acts committed at worst.
If the domestic energy supply market is functioning properly then price increases which promise 'excessive' profits should attract new entrants and aggressive pricing from existing participants who may decide to give short term priority to increasing market share rather than margin.
This is not purely theoretical. We see it happen regularly with motor fuel pricing as the major forecourt retailers (now mainly supermarket chains) compete for customers and margins.
Cameron is therefore right to point customers towards switching suppliers as a means of saving costs. Increasing the willingness to switch is supporting those energy suppliers who might be inclined to increase their market share by undercutting competitors' pricing.
Getting customers to switch utility suppliers is difficult as the inertia effect of entrenched monopoly state supply takes time to dissipate. But the market gets there eventually as can be seen with telecommunication service supply today.
Of course, the advice to switch only makes sense if there is a properly functioning market for supply. But then it is not politicians who should be making that judgement without first making proper inquiry into and evaluation of the evidence.
@MSmithsonPB Mike, that's one tweet with the headline number followed by 4 looking for a silver lining for Ed. Can't see wood for the trees?
The coalition is getting royally screwed on energy prices though. Even as a tory I have to say it serves dave and all the turquoise climate tw8ts right.
So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?
What you see in a shop window may excite you but it is what you buy and take home that drives retail sales.
'Amongst those certain to vote' wasn't a caveat in that banner headline. Just intrigued to winkle out any innate biases that keep creeping in.
Spot the difference:
Then:
'Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels'
Now
'CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI' (italics mine)
How can there be a proper market for supply when the government is closing down one of the best methods of supply, coal fired power stations,without replacing them with equivalent capacity.
You can't expect to close down half the worlds gold mines and expect the price of gold to remain stable.
Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.
#Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB
If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.
If you noticed, last months banner headline wasn't exactly a positive for Ed was it, getting compared to some crap leaders of the opposition.
Plus you're reading far too much into banner headlines.
Speaking from experience, there's no great thought put into them, wordpress creates the URL based on what was first written
take this one I wrote, when Dave lost the Syria vote
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/29/if-cameron-loses-the-vote-thread/
(a) is more likely to be right because of the ex-LD lefties, but (b) is looking increasingly suspect. Based on the mid-term polling at the moment, in conjunction with the improving economy, I reckon we could well be looking at something like Lab 32 Con 38 LD 14.
What pollsters should be asking the 2010 Lib Dems is the following question:
"If it looked like Labour were not going to win the General Election, which party would you vote for if the election were to be held tomorrow?"
Who'd a thunk it... normally it's a good poll for Cammo and Labour!
I might give a toss then.
Oh, and I wouldn't take too much pride Screamer in the idea that you don't think much about what you publish.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/17/fear-and-loathing-in-the-plp-what-really-happened-in-labours-reshuffle/
"Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources, seeking to tell their side of the story about what is going on beneath the slowly fracturing façade of PLP unity.
Piecing together the various accounts, a rather different picture emerges of the reshuffle, to the one commonly reported....."
There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.
It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...
andros townsend @andros_townsend 2h
I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!
Because even more buying of imported tat which we don't need with borrowed money which we don't have is the opposite of what the economy needs.
A government subsidised consumption bubble which benefits estate agents and DFS is straight from the Gordon Brown manual.
But then again Cameron and Osborne saw nothing wrong with Brownomics so its not surprising that they're continuing to implement it.
UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.
16/1 Paddy Power
Having said that, I have staked but let's be clear there's no such thing as 'free money' in betting. If you want to go down that route the 1/7 on a 2015 election, despite the odds, must be a reasonable bet. The return on that is better than you'd get at most banks.
Although I probably agree with you on the price trends, that doesn't mean Dave is wrong in pushing the switching line. He is still giving much needed impetus to competitive forces in the industry.
Energy prices have risen way above the rate of inflation for decades. Price increases have not been driven by lack of competition in the supply industry: they are the product of political policy both national and international. Even if the UK had the most competitive domestic energy supply industry in the world it would make not make a substantial difference to the prices consumers pay for household gas and electricity.
What is needed from our politicians is a mature debate about the prices consumers are prepared to pay to secure future (and competitive) supplies of energy and to save the planet.
"Tristram Hunt is being positioned as the anti-Chuka.
Expect Hunt to be given substantial policy leeway and prime media opportunities, much as Chuka once enjoyed, to set a Hunt-for-leader bandwagon rolling, preferably straight into Chuka’s."
Talking of which the Hon Hunt has just been on WATO, not as good as Marr, but not as bad as the HoC.....
Ed furthest from the centre of the main3 party leaders.
More people think Cam is right of centre rather than right wing.
A classic single data point theory which trumps all.
Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098
"Despite an on camera promise in October, Ed Miliband has failed to release the list of businessmen and lobbyists he dined with at a secret “off the record” supper organised by Roland Rudd the shady spinmeister. His agency Finsbury has a whole host of “predators” as clients, including at the online loan sharks Wonga."
"ayday lender Wonga has moved key parts of its business to Switzerland in a move that could slash its tax bill, experts have revealed."
I'm personally down £500 after one such instance and most of the regular gamblers have all been hit.
So you have to be very careful about the terms of the bet and who the wager is with.
I'd bet with Tim anytime because he does pay up promptly. You cannot say the same of a number of others.
I mean, look at you rather hilarious contributions about infrastructure over the years.
But my point still stands. Your comments are hardly going to encourage people to bet.
I cannot see how taxing payday lenders more will help any of their customers. Either they'll pay more because well that's how markets work or they'll be fewer lenders in the market because its not worth it. So who loses? Those who are the most hard pressed and relying on them.
10secs of thought shows its a crap idea.
He is the perfect Kevin Rudd figure that the LDs need.
I could make a grammatical point about what was the predicate of the subject, but that wouldn't be truthful to my intent which has got me thinking. I tend not to go on overseas based forums when I'm back in the UK, but I do when I'm out of the country. The converse isn't true however: I posted on here and other UK forums during my recent two month writing travelogue in Asia. Curious.
Anyway, I've noticed that one of Tim's favourite tactics is to deflect away from the point especially when it's aimed at him.
Josias you made a very good point about the betting issue. It's rare these days to find two thread members betting and on this occasion when it happened the owner of the site mocked the size of the bet, which would still have totalled £30 or so, and then Tim produced his usual chothonian fare. As you said, rather sad really.
How about suggesting that I was inferring indirectly through the medium of subliminal invisible font typing that Cam is actually in favour of compulsory smoking levy for the poor to pay for free cigars for rich pensioners ?
The bet had been agreed between the participants. The comments this morning haven't seemed likely to encourage others to place bets.
7.3% Tory vote lead
57 Tory seat lead
I'll have some more Monte Carlo stats in a mo...
Just read that Labour Uncut piece - thank goodness for those Mori leader numbers then... from our perspective.
Tories high 30s or low 40s.
Labour low 30s or high 20s.
Labour are in real trouble but they seem unconcious of the approaching disaster.
A huge shout of support to our teachers, who today have given a lesson to all of us: stand up for your rights #teacherROAR
Indeed my daughter and her classmates were most concerned to hear their Maths teacher tell them it was to protect their pensions... but he wasn't striking. School open albeit sans PE (....)
Sun's shining. Most peculiar.
Anyway, sounds like Chilton may be ditched for Magnussen next year. Bianchi's safe (which is fair enough as he's probably the best back-marker driver):
http://www.espn.co.uk/marussia/motorsport/story/130577.html
Tim's contributions often dominate this site. You tend to agree with them, so perhaps you don't notice them as much.
Toxic Tim
You need to square your analysis with the fact that the household savings ratio has risen and been higher than trend under the coalition government, households and individuals have reduced their net borrowings and household consumption has been flat over the past three years.
In addition, Government consumption as a share of UK Gross Final Expenditure has fallen from 17.1% (Q2 2010) to 15.6% (Q2 2013) and exports have risen from 23% to 24% over the same period.
Almost all the trends are in the right direction although you will no doubt be dissatisfied with the distance travelled.
Nonetheless my half-time pep talk to the PB Tory team is to be patient: "slowly, slowly catchee monkey".
I am surprised nobody Tim sneers at on here (I mean politicians rather than fellow punters ) has complained personally.
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver 16m
Unison officials at by-election in Thurrock today: "vote UKIP, get Tory". They are all at it!