So, it is actually their dire performance in Scotland that is pulling the Labour figure down. We live in interesting times.
The Scottish dimension for Westminster is fascinating, and imho, we should be paying it a LOT more attention... it is inextricably linked to the Referendum of course.
Two possible scenarios.
Independence wins The SNP continue to ride high In 2015 they sweep Scotland at Westminster (why wouldn't the Scots give a final two fingers to Westminster for seats that will shortly be abolished anyhow?) Labour would be fecked in 2015 (down on seats on 2010) and could be fecked forever as a result. Labour rediscover the charms of PR, and British politics moves into an entirely new era...
Independence loses The SNP crash and burn... Who benefits in Scotland? My intuition says the Tories... Tories have a spectacular Scottish revival at the 2015 Westminster elections, picking up seats from LDs, SNP and even Labour. Maybe back into double figures overall. A significant bonus for them in the 2015 overall UK electoral contest...
Independence loses The SNP crash and burn... Who benefits in Scotland? My intuition says the Tories... Tories have a spectacular Scottish revival at the 2015 Westminster elections, picking up seats from LDs, SNP and even Labour. Maybe back into double figures overall. A significant bonus for them in the 2015 overall UK electoral contest...
So, it is actually their dire performance in Scotland that is pulling the Labour figure down. We live in interesting times.
The Scottish dimension for Westminster is fascinating, and imho, we should be paying it a LOT more attention... it is inextricably linked to the Referendum of course.
Two possible scenarios.
Independence wins The SNP continue to ride high In 2015 they sweep Scotland at Westminster (why wouldn't the Scots give a final two fingers to Westminster for seats that will shortly be abolished anyhow?) Labour would be fecked in 2015 (down on seats on 2010) and could be fecked forever as a result. Labour rediscover the charms of PR, and British politics moves into an entirely new era...
Independence loses The SNP crash and burn... Who benefits in Scotland? My intuition says the Tories... Tories have a spectacular Scottish revival at the 2015 Westminster elections, picking up seats from LDs, SNP and even Labour. Maybe back into double figures overall. A significant bonus for them in the 2015 overall UK electoral contest...
There is a greater chance that the Conservatives will lose the one seat they have in Scotland than end up in double figures IMHO .
Independence loses The SNP crash and burn... Who benefits in Scotland? My intuition says the Tories... Tories have a spectacular Scottish revival at the 2015 Westminster elections, picking up seats from LDs, SNP and even Labour. Maybe back into double figures overall. A significant bonus for them in the 2015 overall UK electoral contest...
Where's Sunil with his "Ed is great, Ed - for want of a better phrase - cuts through" mantra?
The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that Ed, for lack of a better word, is good. Ed is right, Ed works. Ed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the (R)evolutionary spirit. Ed, in all of his forms; Ed for life, for money, for love, knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Ed, you mark my words, will not only save the Labour Party, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the UK. Thank you very much.
The first two are held by the Lib Dems, and the second is a particularly promising target for the Tories. On the other hand, the SNP won all the seats in that area in the Holyrood election of 2011.
What's your list of nine seats for the Tories that would take them to double figures?
A cogent and well placed point NPxMP as ever when on the whole 'him' debate that breaks out every so often here.
Strangely you failed to provide any support to yesterday's hobby horse which we enjoyed 103 posts on - namely the central role that Cameron played in the Plebgate saga and his 3-month cover up to help the plod?
I took your total silence as disagreement on that matter - unless I missed a post from you which I apologise if I did?
I posted just once, to say (paraphrasing as I don't have time to hunt it out) that I thought Mitchell had been grossly wronged but that neither Cameron nor Miliband should be particularly blamed for reacting to the reports at the time.
Time is the enemy so I don't post as often as I used to.
Thank you for that precis - sounds fair enough, would you agree though that both Cameron and Miliban owe him apologies based on the facts as they knew them now having changed?
Rod's point about the referendum impact is very important, though I'm not sure about his conclusions. We have to see it as THE most significant lever of potential voting change in Scotland in 2015. Assuming the referendum is defeated, as seems awfully likely at the moment, it's hard to see the SNP nonchalantly picking up seats. But do Labour as dominant Scottish alternatives or Tories as national government gain?
Re today's council by elections , apart from the Thurrock seat , UKIP should also be expecting to gain Chichester Westbourne from the Conservatives . They won the larger CC division " The Bournes" in May quite easily . The Conservative candidate is the former CC who was defeated in May .
A cogent and well placed point NPxMP as ever when on the whole 'him' debate that breaks out every so often here.
Strangely you failed to provide any support to yesterday's hobby horse which we enjoyed 103 posts on - namely the central role that Cameron played in the Plebgate saga and his 3-month cover up to help the plod?
I took your total silence as disagreement on that matter - unless I missed a post from you which I apologise if I did?
I posted just once, to say (paraphrasing as I don't have time to hunt it out) that I thought Mitchell had been grossly wronged but that neither Cameron nor Miliband should be particularly blamed for reacting to the reports at the time.
Time is the enemy so I don't post as often as I used to.
Thank you for that precis - sounds fair enough, would you agree though that both Cameron and Miliban owe him apologies based on the facts as they knew them now having changed?
"Ann Carlton, who worked for a time as Ralph Miliband’s research assistant in the Sixties, has belatedly come out in support of her old boss after he evoked the ire of a newspaper.
“Ralph did not hate Britain,” she says of the Labour leader’s father in The Spectator. “He just wanted to make it better by transforming it into a Communist state, and that meant destroying a lot of Britain’s social institutions, because they promoted and buttressed social inequality.”
She added that, to Ralph, “the dictatorship of the proletariat would be preferable to Harold Wilson’s Labour government.”
"“Ralph did not hate Britain,” she says of the Labour leader’s father in The Spectator. “He just wanted to make it better by transforming it into a Communist state,"
On the other hand, only one of them knew that 'the CCTV shows that it was forty seconds of exchange it was incredible short and [Mitchell] complied with the officer.' [IPCC, Transcript of Meeting, p. 6]
On the other hand, only one of them knew that 'the CCTV shows that it was forty seconds of exchange it was incredible short and [Mitchell] complied with the officer.' [IPCC, Transcript of Meeting, p. 6]
Was there sound with the CCTV which refuted the 'plebs' claim?
On the other hand, only one of them knew that 'the CCTV shows that it was forty seconds of exchange it was incredible short and [Mitchell] complied with the officer.' [IPCC, Transcript of Meeting, p. 6]
Was there sound with the CCTV which refuted the 'plebs' claim?
Was there sound with the CCTV which refuted the 'plebs' claim?
No, but then again, the allegation of the use of the word 'pleb' has not today been refuted, merely seriously undermined by other evidence. What the CCTV appears to demonstrate is that the exchange recorded in the alleged 'police log' could not have taken place within the time that Mitchell was conversing with the constables, and that the credibility of letter, which John Randall MP received, was tenuous.
On the other hand, only one of them knew that 'the CCTV shows that it was forty seconds of exchange it was incredible short and [Mitchell] complied with the officer.' [IPCC, Transcript of Meeting, p. 6]
Was there sound with the CCTV which refuted the 'plebs' claim?
Cant you see what you're in danger of doing here?
I thought tim might have tired of playing 'farmer' and would like to play 'detective' again......but I see your point.....
So, it is actually their dire performance in Scotland that is pulling the Labour figure down. We live in interesting times.
The Scottish dimension for Westminster is fascinating, and imho, we should be paying it a LOT more attention... it is inextricably linked to the Referendum of course.
Two possible scenarios.
Independence wins The SNP continue to ride high In 2015 they sweep Scotland at Westminster (why wouldn't the Scots give a final two fingers to Westminster for seats that will shortly be abolished anyhow?) Labour would be fecked in 2015 (down on seats on 2010) and could be fecked forever as a result. Labour rediscover the charms of PR, and British politics moves into an entirely new era...
Independence loses The SNP crash and burn... Who benefits in Scotland? My intuition says the Tories... Tories have a spectacular Scottish revival at the 2015 Westminster elections, picking up seats from LDs, SNP and even Labour. Maybe back into double figures overall. A significant bonus for them in the 2015 overall UK electoral contest...
Why do you think the Conservatives would benefit especially from a vote against independence?
"I was learning that those who pontificate most loudly about the rights of the workers en masse are often those who, faced with an individual worker, can be less than perfect in their treatment of that worker."
Has Sven apologised for his 'hilarious' comment regarding the police and Mr Mitchell yet? No doubt he is eternally thankful to disqUS for fecking-up the archive: Would not want that popping-up and spoiling his retirement to Norway in 2015 would he....
I went and checked my electricity bills for my apartment in the states, and I am paying exactly the same amount per kWh as I was 20 months ago -- 6 pence. What exactly is going on in the UK which makes it necessary to ramp the prices so much?
I think the Tories probably wouldn't want to have more than a few polls putting them ahead at this stage because they don't want anything to threaten Ed's position as leader of the Labour Party at the 2015 general election. Level-pegging is just about okay from their point of view at this juncture.
You willing to back your intuition with cash? I'm willing to bet that (if the referendum loses) the Tories will do a lot worse than double figures!
Not yet, but I'd like to see a lot more focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
Whatever, I think Labour will have a very poor result there in 2015...
Funnily enough, Mark Senior want to see a lot LESS focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
I wonder why that could be?
(Note: if the tables were turned and the SLDs were on 25% and the Scottish Tories were on 3% he would be shouting it from the rooftops.)
If there had been a proper Scottish Westminster VI poll I would be taking notice but not a sub sample of 52 people when 3 other sub samples at the same time had 13 to 15%
I can only think of two Scottish tories. Malcolm Rifkind and the guy who married Andie McDowell in Four Weddings ('its Brigadoon, is Brig a bloody doon'),
Why do you think the Conservatives would benefit especially from a vote against independence?
The SNP as a party, and their voters, would be completely demoralised. For forty years they've campaigned for this moment, and the voters have spat in their face. It's over... for maybe another 30 years. It's not impossible they could implode at Westminster 2015.
I have a suspicion that a significant proportion of SNP voters are actually Tories, who see them as the only viable current alternative to Labour. Likewise some may have supported the LibDems. If we are back in a purely UK paradigm, they my return to the fold.
I'm expecting a relatively good result for the Tories in Scotland anyhow. Brown's 2010 sympathy vote will evaporate, and Miliband may be even more anathema to Scots than Cameron.
I don't want to overstate it, but a perfect storm might just turn a good Tory result into an excellent one (no more than 10 seats, mind).
"Ann Carlton, who worked for a time as Ralph Miliband’s research assistant in the Sixties, has belatedly come out in support of her old boss after he evoked the ire of a newspaper.
“Ralph did not hate Britain,” she says of the Labour leader’s father in The Spectator. “He just wanted to make it better by transforming it into a Communist state, and that meant destroying a lot of Britain’s social institutions, because they promoted and buttressed social inequality.”
She added that, to Ralph, “the dictatorship of the proletariat would be preferable to Harold Wilson’s Labour government.”
If you agree with Bagehot, and I tend to have some sympathies, then another call by Wee-Timmy that has proven to be wrong. It would be good to hear his views though....
There was someone on BBC News 24 this pm at about 3.30pm complaining about being hard up (she was late 30's at a guess) and saying "she didn't put the heating on during the day"(Why would anyone want to in this warmest of October's) as though this was some sort of serious privation. People need to get real, living at 70 deg f 24/7/365 is going to cost them money. I doubt the woman I heard knew what a jumper or nay a second jumper was, nor had ever heard of woolly socks.
I have been going on about the economic optimism figures for months now. I have no doubt they are driving this improvement for the tories.
What should really worry Labour is that this is an astonishing and surely unsustainable surge in admiration for Ed and yet their lead has fallen. If the majority revert to their default assumption that he is not very good next month Labour may well be behind. Those Ed figures suggest this was, to say the least, a pretty good sample for Labour.
The other worry for Labour is that 35% shows a slight softening in what so far has been an incredibly resiliant high 30s, low 40s score. It is only 1 poll of course and only 1 pollster but if Labour start to head down to the mid 30s those bets on a tory lead look a lot more attractive.
Why do you think the Conservatives would benefit especially from a vote against independence?
The SNP as a party, and their voters, would be completely demoralised. For forty years they've campaigned for this moment, and the voters have spat in their face. It's over... for maybe another 30 years. It's not impossible they could implode at Westminster 2015.
I have a suspicion that a significant proportion of SNP voters are actually Tories, who see them as the only viable current alternative to Labour. Likewise some may have supported the LibDems. If we are back in a purely UK paradigm, they my return to the fold.
I'm expecting a relatively good result for the Tories in Scotland anyhow. Brown's 2010 sympathy vote will evaporate, and Miliband may be even more anathema to Scots than Cameron.
I don't want to overstate it, but a perfect storm might just turn a good Tory result into an excellent one (no more than 10 seats, mind).
wild thinking , the SNP will not dissolve if vote is NO and the beneficiaries will certainly not be the Tories, anyone thinking that is mad.
You willing to back your intuition with cash? I'm willing to bet that (if the referendum loses) the Tories will do a lot worse than double figures!
Not yet, but I'd like to see a lot more focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
Whatever, I think Labour will have a very poor result there in 2015...
Funnily enough, Mark Senior want to see a lot LESS focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
I wonder why that could be?
(Note: if the tables were turned and the SLDs were on 25% and the Scottish Tories were on 3% he would be shouting it from the rooftops.)
Wait - the LDs are on 3% in Scotland ?
In Stuart's selected sub sample of 52 voters .
And Mark just won't let a sleeping porkie lie.
There is NO LIE in my statement . Table 4 from which you took your VI %'s . No of voters in Scottish sub sample 52 , weighted up to 57 of whom 2 were undecided and 1 refused to say their VI . You learned nothing from your constant ramping of selected sub samples prior to the 2010 GE .
I was shocked by the thread on PB.com a couple of days ago reporting on Eddie Izzard's high ratings in the Evening Standard's poll on who people most favoured to be London's next Major, in which iirc he was top of the pile! For me his possible election is just too awful to contemplate and I doubt he has much of a chance against the more obvious Labour candidates. Nevertheless, I've had half a pint's worth of Old Speckled Hen on him at 33/1 currently on offer from those nice people at Ladbrokes. Considering that the three other bookies making this market are all offering far more modest odds of 12/1, Laddies' price actually looked quite tempting.
"Labour’s Parliamentary Question does not challenge whether the emails are true. Nor does it dispute that the emails could have been released if the correct process had been followed. There is a clear public interest in disclosure given that they deal with the views of health officials on the subject of patient safety. Nor does it suggest the emails were policy advice to Ministers, commercially confidential, or legally privileged.
Instead it complains that on a technicality, namely that Cabinet Office sign off was not obtained as is required for emails relating to a previous government, the correct process was not followed in full.
So the crux is that Labour are concerned with the process about how this embarrassing information became public, rather than what the information actually says or that it is true."
Twitter Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 13m West Mercia police announce review of details of Plebgate inquiry followiong concerns raised by IPCC + request from Warwicks PCC Ron Ball
Prime Minister Toy ® @WelshToy 37s RT @chrisshipitv: 18 Tory MPs just backed a motion calling on govt to delay disbanding Regular #BritishArmy units to replace them w/Reserves
I am guessing it`s champagne time on PB.Clearly the polls have narrowed but Ed Miliband`s ratings have also improved.Things will become clearer in the next couple of weeks.
The first two are held by the Lib Dems, and the second is a particularly promising target for the Tories. On the other hand, the SNP won all the seats in that area in the Holyrood election of 2011.
What's your list of nine seats for the Tories that would take them to double figures?
The top 9 Scottish Tory targets are:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (LD) West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD) Argyll and Bute (LD) Edinburgh West (LD) Edinburgh South (Lab) Aberdeen South (Lab) Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) Edinburgh South West (Lab) Stirling (Lab)
A grand coalition between Germany's centre-right and centre-left parties has moved a step nearer
I wish they'd get on with it. I have a nice bet at 2/1 on this outcome (thanks to a post by Nick P a few days before the election, for which I'm very grateful!)
Why do you think the Conservatives would benefit especially from a vote against independence?
The SNP as a party, and their voters, would be completely demoralised. For forty years they've campaigned for this moment, and the voters have spat in their face. It's over... for maybe another 30 years. It's not impossible they could implode at Westminster 2015.
I have a suspicion that a significant proportion of SNP voters are actually Tories, who see them as the only viable current alternative to Labour. Likewise some may have supported the LibDems. If we are back in a purely UK paradigm, they my return to the fold.
I'm expecting a relatively good result for the Tories in Scotland anyhow. Brown's 2010 sympathy vote will evaporate, and Miliband may be even more anathema to Scots than Cameron.
I don't want to overstate it, but a perfect storm might just turn a good Tory result into an excellent one (no more than 10 seats, mind).
wild thinking , the SNP will not dissolve if vote is NO and the beneficiaries will certainly not be the Tories, anyone thinking that is mad.
As amusing as the idiots who thought devolution would kill the SNP stone dead.
And almost as mad as ignoring the fact that winning a landslide majority in the scottish parliament in 2011, under a system designed to prevent that, which is somehow indicative of the voters 'spitting in the SNPs face'.
Scottish tory surgers are always funny but only a fool would take them seriously.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (LD) West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD) Argyll and Bute (LD) Edinburgh West (LD) Edinburgh South (Lab) Aberdeen South (Lab) Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) Edinburgh South West (Lab) Stirling (Lab)
... roughly in that order.
You've got to add Moray, Banff&Buchan and Perth&North Perthshire.
Remember the 1979 SNP (near) wipeout in the wake of the Devolution failure...?
You willing to back your intuition with cash? I'm willing to bet that (if the referendum loses) the Tories will do a lot worse than double figures!
Not yet, but I'd like to see a lot more focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
Whatever, I think Labour will have a very poor result there in 2015...
Funnily enough, Mark Senior want to see a lot LESS focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
I wonder why that could be?
(Note: if the tables were turned and the SLDs were on 25% and the Scottish Tories were on 3% he would be shouting it from the rooftops.)
Wait - the LDs are on 3% in Scotland ?
In Stuart's selected sub sample of 52 voters .
And Mark just won't let a sleeping porkie lie.
There is NO LIE in my statement . Table 4 from which you took your VI %'s . No of voters in Scottish sub sample 52 , weighted up to 57 of whom 2 were undecided and 1 refused to say their VI . You learned nothing from your constant ramping of selected sub samples prior to the 2010 GE .
There were actually two porkies in your brief sentence, not one.
You know what you are doing. I know what you are doing. You know you are telling a porkie. I know that you are telling a porkie. I very much doubt that anyone else cares.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (LD) West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD) Argyll and Bute (LD) Edinburgh West (LD) Edinburgh South (Lab) Aberdeen South (Lab) Dumfries and Galloway (Lab) Edinburgh South West (Lab) Stirling (Lab)
... roughly in that order.
You've got to add Moray, Banff&Buchan and Perth&North Perthshire.
Remember the 1979 SNP (near) wipeout in the wake of the Devolution failure...?
Rod, there is nothing I would like better than for the Tories to pour resources into Moray, Banff&Buchan, Perthshire and Angus. The entire Scottish political establishment would pish themselves laughing.
There was someone on BBC News 24 this pm at about 3.30pm complaining about being hard up (she was late 30's at a guess) and saying "she didn't put the heating on during the day"(Why would anyone want to in this warmest of October's) as though this was some sort of serious privation. People need to get real, living at 70 deg f 24/7/365 is going to cost them money. I doubt the woman I heard knew what a jumper or nay a second jumper was, nor had ever heard of woolly socks.
I think the proliferation of foodbanks is far more telling.
You willing to back your intuition with cash? I'm willing to bet that (if the referendum loses) the Tories will do a lot worse than double figures!
Not yet, but I'd like to see a lot more focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
Whatever, I think Labour will have a very poor result there in 2015...
Funnily enough, Mark Senior want to see a lot LESS focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
I wonder why that could be?
(Note: if the tables were turned and the SLDs were on 25% and the Scottish Tories were on 3% he would be shouting it from the rooftops.)
Wait - the LDs are on 3% in Scotland ?
In Stuart's selected sub sample of 52 voters .
And Mark just won't let a sleeping porkie lie.
There is NO LIE in my statement . Table 4 from which you took your VI %'s . No of voters in Scottish sub sample 52 , weighted up to 57 of whom 2 were undecided and 1 refused to say their VI . You learned nothing from your constant ramping of selected sub samples prior to the 2010 GE .
There were actually two porkies in your brief sentence, not one.
You know what you are doing. I know what you are doing. You know you are telling a porkie. I know that you are telling a porkie. I very much doubt that anyone else cares.
It is against the rules of this site to falsely accuse another poster of lying . Your posts in 2013 are equally as squalid and devoid of political import as they were in the run up to 2010 .
'His guests are immigration minister, Mark Harper MP; Labour's shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt MP; Diane James of UKIP; Daily Telegraph chief political commentator Peter Oborne; playwright and chancellor of Kingston University Bonnie Greer.'
'His guests are immigration minister, Mark Harper MP; Labour's shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt MP; Diane James of UKIP; Daily Telegraph chief political commentator Peter Oborne; playwright and chancellor of Kingston University Bonnie Greer.'
You're overlooking the people who like to moan about the political bias of the BBC as indicated by the makeup of the QT panel (often because they didnt know who the right winger was). Not much in it for them.
You willing to back your intuition with cash? I'm willing to bet that (if the referendum loses) the Tories will do a lot worse than double figures!
Not yet, but I'd like to see a lot more focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
Whatever, I think Labour will have a very poor result there in 2015...
Funnily enough, Mark Senior want to see a lot LESS focus on the Scottish Westminster VI.
I wonder why that could be?
(Note: if the tables were turned and the SLDs were on 25% and the Scottish Tories were on 3% he would be shouting it from the rooftops.)
Wait - the LDs are on 3% in Scotland ?
In Stuart's selected sub sample of 52 voters .
And Mark just won't let a sleeping porkie lie.
There is NO LIE in my statement . Table 4 from which you took your VI %'s . No of voters in Scottish sub sample 52 , weighted up to 57 of whom 2 were undecided and 1 refused to say their VI . You learned nothing from your constant ramping of selected sub samples prior to the 2010 GE .
There were actually two porkies in your brief sentence, not one.
You know what you are doing. I know what you are doing. You know you are telling a porkie. I know that you are telling a porkie. I very much doubt that anyone else cares.
It is against the rules of this site to falsely accuse another poster of lying . Your posts in 2013 are equally as squalid and devoid of political import as they were in the run up to 2010 .
You are so transparent Mark. Such a typical Lib Dem.
'His guests are immigration minister, Mark Harper MP; Labour's shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt MP; Diane James of UKIP; Daily Telegraph chief political commentator Peter Oborne; playwright and chancellor of Kingston University Bonnie Greer.'
You're overlooking the people who like to moan about the political bias of the BBC as indicated by the makeup of the QT panel (often because they didnt know who the right winger was). Not much in it for them.
'His guests are immigration minister, Mark Harper MP; Labour's shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt MP; Diane James of UKIP; Daily Telegraph chief political commentator Peter Oborne; playwright and chancellor of Kingston University Bonnie Greer.'
You're overlooking the people who like to moan about the political bias of the BBC as indicated by the makeup of the QT panel (often because they didnt know who the right winger was). Not much in it for them.
I went and checked my electricity bills for my apartment in the states, and I am paying exactly the same amount per kWh as I was 20 months ago -- 6 pence. What exactly is going on in the UK which makes it necessary to ramp the prices so much?
'His guests are immigration minister, Mark Harper MP; Labour's shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt MP; Diane James of UKIP; Daily Telegraph chief political commentator Peter Oborne; playwright and chancellor of Kingston University Bonnie Greer.'
You're overlooking the people who like to moan about the political bias of the BBC as indicated by the makeup of the QT panel (often because they didnt know who the right winger was). Not much in it for them.
*rumbled*
There's always the biased audience to cling on to.
If only we still had SethOLogue's chum StuartTruth to tell us just how big a triumph for the tea party the GOP surrender was?
Left and right accusing each other of being f8cked on energy prices when the truth is all the main parties are, because they all went for the same lunacy on green dogma without giving thought to what was practical.
What price 'f8ck the planet we're re-opening coal-fired stations' now?
Left and right accusing each other of being f8cked on energy prices when the truth is all the main parties are, because they all went for the same lunacy on green dogma without giving thought to what was practical.
What price 'f8ck the planet we're re-opening coal-fired stations' now?
Left and right accusing each other of being f8cked on energy prices when the truth is all the main parties are, because they all went for the same lunacy on green dogma without giving thought to what was practical.
What price 'f8ck the planet we're re-opening coal-fired stations' now?
spot on.
Green taxes are great, so long as they are paid to the Chinese Govt investment arm, whats your problem? Osborne is claiming a huge success.
And anyway the energy minister just blew the Tory argument apart by claiming the energy companies are robbing their customers.
I agree with you on labours position,smart move by labour ,it's put labour on the front foot on the cost of living and agree with you on the tory position,all over the place on energy companies but the tories can regain it if they think smart on the green taxes.
exactly. People think EdM is stronger, clearer and more able to execute his policies.
Which is exactly what everyone fears - ie he is more able to take us leftwards and c*ck up the economy.
Good for the Cons.
I think Ed has missed a trick by boldly moving leftwards.It allows the Cons to attract the UKIP vote without doing much.But we know Ed`s heart is towards the left and Labourites have to endure a hairy ride.
Comments
Two possible scenarios.
Independence wins
The SNP continue to ride high
In 2015 they sweep Scotland at Westminster (why wouldn't the Scots give a final two fingers to Westminster for seats that will shortly be abolished anyhow?)
Labour would be fecked in 2015 (down on seats on 2010) and could be fecked forever as a result.
Labour rediscover the charms of PR, and British politics moves into an entirely new era...
Independence loses
The SNP crash and burn...
Who benefits in Scotland? My intuition says the Tories...
Tories have a spectacular Scottish revival at the 2015 Westminster elections, picking up seats from LDs, SNP and even Labour. Maybe back into double figures overall.
A significant bonus for them in the 2015 overall UK electoral contest...
You willing to back your intuition with cash? I'm willing to bet that (if the referendum loses) the Tories will do a lot worse than double figures!
Ditto @Neil & @tim.
Whatever, I think Labour will have a very poor result there in 2015...
Lab 1.86-1.94
Con 2.1 - 2.2
Market has been thinned out..
There is something about the Lib Dem collapse that just cheers up everyone else. It is the most delicious Schadenfreude.
Argyll & Bute
Aberdeenshire West& Kincardine
Angus
The first two are held by the Lib Dems, and the second is a particularly promising target for the Tories. On the other hand, the SNP won all the seats in that area in the Holyrood election of 2011.
What's your list of nine seats for the Tories that would take them to double figures?
"Ann Carlton, who worked for a time as Ralph Miliband’s research assistant in the Sixties, has belatedly come out in support of her old boss after he evoked the ire of a newspaper.
“Ralph did not hate Britain,” she says of the Labour leader’s father in The Spectator. “He just wanted to make it better by transforming it into a Communist state, and that meant destroying a lot of Britain’s social institutions, because they promoted and buttressed social inequality.”
She added that, to Ralph, “the dictatorship of the proletariat would be preferable to Harold Wilson’s Labour government.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10386388/Ralph-Miliband-wanted-to-destroy-Britains-institutions-and-turn-country-into-a-Communist-state.html
Splitting hairs a bit now...
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9057391/you-will-pay/
"I was learning that those who pontificate most loudly about the rights of the workers en masse are often those who, faced with an individual worker, can be less than perfect in their treatment of that worker."
Has Sven apologised for his 'hilarious' comment regarding the police and Mr Mitchell yet? No doubt he is eternally thankful to disqUS for fecking-up the archive: Would not want that popping-up and spoiling his retirement to Norway in 2015 would he....
I wonder why that could be?
(Note: if the tables were turned and the SLDs were on 25% and the Scottish Tories were on 3% he would be shouting it from the rooftops.)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji_n5aNulDE
And let's face it, one of them is fictional.
I have a suspicion that a significant proportion of SNP voters are actually Tories, who see them as the only viable current alternative to Labour. Likewise some may have supported the LibDems. If we are back in a purely UK paradigm, they my return to the fold.
I'm expecting a relatively good result for the Tories in Scotland anyhow. Brown's 2010 sympathy vote will evaporate, and Miliband may be even more anathema to Scots than Cameron.
I don't want to overstate it, but a perfect storm might just turn a good Tory result into an excellent one (no more than 10 seats, mind).
interesting, will there be a market in Scottish tory seat numbers at any juncture, do you think?
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21588058-far-right-outfit-dying-views-it-holds-dear-are-not-new-islamophobes
If you agree with Bagehot, and I tend to have some sympathies, then another call by Wee-Timmy that has proven to be wrong. It would be good to hear his views though....
People need to get real, living at 70 deg f 24/7/365 is going to cost them money. I doubt the woman I heard knew what a jumper or nay a second jumper was, nor had ever heard of woolly socks.
If there isn't I'd be tempted to make one myself...
Anyone know any good Brazilian chat-up lines or jokes?
SNP 41%, Lab 27%, Con 25%, UKIP 4%, LD 3%
What should really worry Labour is that this is an astonishing and surely unsustainable surge in admiration for Ed and yet their lead has fallen. If the majority revert to their default assumption that he is not very good next month Labour may well be behind. Those Ed figures suggest this was, to say the least, a pretty good sample for Labour.
The other worry for Labour is that 35% shows a slight softening in what so far has been an incredibly resiliant high 30s, low 40s score. It is only 1 poll of course and only 1 pollster but if Labour start to head down to the mid 30s those bets on a tory lead look a lot more attractive.
You learned nothing from your constant ramping of selected sub samples prior to the 2010 GE .
I was shocked by the thread on PB.com a couple of days ago reporting on Eddie Izzard's high ratings in the Evening Standard's poll on who people most favoured to be London's next Major, in which iirc he was top of the pile! For me his possible election is just too awful to contemplate and I doubt he has much of a chance against the more obvious Labour candidates.
Nevertheless, I've had half a pint's worth of Old Speckled Hen on him at 33/1 currently on offer from those nice people at Ladbrokes. Considering that the three other bookies making this market are all offering far more modest odds of 12/1, Laddies' price actually looked quite tempting.
"Labour’s Parliamentary Question does not challenge whether the emails are true. Nor does it dispute that the emails could have been released if the correct process had been followed. There is a clear public interest in disclosure given that they deal with the views of health officials on the subject of patient safety. Nor does it suggest the emails were policy advice to Ministers, commercially confidential, or legally privileged.
Instead it complains that on a technicality, namely that Cabinet Office sign off was not obtained as is required for emails relating to a previous government, the correct process was not followed in full.
So the crux is that Labour are concerned with the process about how this embarrassing information became public, rather than what the information actually says or that it is true."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 13m
West Mercia police announce review of details of Plebgate inquiry followiong concerns raised by IPCC + request from Warwicks PCC Ron Ball
Prime Minister Toy ® @WelshToy 37s
RT @chrisshipitv: 18 Tory MPs just backed a motion calling on govt to delay disbanding Regular #BritishArmy units to replace them w/Reserves
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (LD)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD)
Argyll and Bute (LD)
Edinburgh West (LD)
Edinburgh South (Lab)
Aberdeen South (Lab)
Dumfries and Galloway (Lab)
Edinburgh South West (Lab)
Stirling (Lab)
... roughly in that order.
I wish they'd get on with it. I have a nice bet at 2/1 on this outcome (thanks to a post by Nick P a few days before the election, for which I'm very grateful!)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24569588
And almost as mad as ignoring the fact that winning a landslide majority in the scottish parliament in 2011, under a system designed to prevent that, which is somehow indicative of the voters 'spitting in the SNPs face'.
Scottish tory surgers are always funny but only a fool would take them seriously.
Remember the 1979 SNP (near) wipeout in the wake of the Devolution failure...?
You know what you are doing. I know what you are doing. You know you are telling a porkie. I know that you are telling a porkie. I very much doubt that anyone else cares.
So it's foolish to say it couldn't happen again in the face of a devastating rebuff...
exactly. People think EdM is stronger, clearer and more able to execute his policies.
Which is exactly what everyone fears - ie he is more able to take us leftwards and c*ck up the economy.
Good for the Cons.
*chortle*
'His guests are immigration minister, Mark Harper MP; Labour's shadow education secretary, Tristram Hunt MP; Diane James of UKIP; Daily Telegraph chief political commentator Peter Oborne; playwright and chancellor of Kingston University Bonnie Greer.'
PoliticsHome @politicshome
Jon Snow: “Are u happy w having a totalitarian state in charge of our nuclear power?” Greg Barker:“Are u talking abt Labour?” @Channel4News
The next GOP circus is going to make the last hilarious farce look almost sober and serious.
Fun times ahead.
What price 'f8ck the planet we're re-opening coal-fired stations' now?
If Ed gets in and imposes a price freeze, we'll all be reading our bills by candlelight.
13 hours 3 minutes 13 seconds