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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI

Amongst all giving a voting intention LAB was 5% ahead
See chart pic.twitter.com/8GuTYRRqlH

Read the full story here

RichardNabavi

That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

TheScreamingEagles

Before the turnout filter of all voters giving a VI it was (changes from last month)

Lab 38 (-2)

Con 33 (+3)

LD 11(+1)

Kippers 9 (-1)

So there definitely has been a narrowing

Ricardohos

Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

Plato

All in all - another bright and sunny day for the Tories - solid retail sales figs, level pegging with MORI...

TheScreamingEagles

Ricardohos said:

Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

yes he bloody well has

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/

AveryLP

FPT @tim

tim said:

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak
Prime Minister David Cameron says British Gas price rises are
"disappointing" and urges people to try to save money by switching suppliers.

That line just makes him look more remote than people already think, they all know the other suppliers are following, its a brilliantly stupid line which hits the buffers when the fifth and then sixth company puts up their prices.

tim

Are you alleging that the energy suppliers are colluding or co-ordinating price fixing?

If so, there has been a regulatory failure at best or criminal acts committed at worst.

If the domestic energy supply market is functioning properly then price increases which promise 'excessive' profits should attract new entrants and aggressive pricing from existing participants who may decide to give short term priority to increasing market share rather than margin.

This is not purely theoretical. We see it happen regularly with motor fuel pricing as the major forecourt retailers (now mainly supermarket chains) compete for customers and margins.

Cameron is therefore right to point customers towards switching suppliers as a means of saving costs. Increasing the willingness to switch is supporting those energy suppliers who might be inclined to increase their market share by undercutting competitors' pricing.

Getting customers to switch utility suppliers is difficult as the inertia effect of entrenched monopoly state supply takes time to dissipate. But the market gets there eventually as can be seen with telecommunication service supply today.

Of course, the advice to switch only makes sense if there is a properly functioning market for supply. But then it is not politicians who should be making that judgement without first making proper inquiry into and evaluation of the evidence.

Plato

Aaron Bell @AaronBell80
@MSmithsonPB Mike, that's one tweet with the headline number followed by 4 looking for a silver lining for Ed. Can't see wood for the trees?

Ricardohos said:

Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

Jonathan

Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

SouthamObserver

Both leaders are regarded to have drifted away from the centre; Dave a little more so than Ed. Dave's right turn coincides with a Tory vote rise though, so that may provide encouragement for even more right-wing popularism. The issue is whether this will seal the deal or do more harm than good. It could win back more UKIPers, but it will also increase wariness of a Tory majority in the centre and on the left. Fascinating times.

taffys

All in all - another bright and sunny day for the Tories - solid retail sales figs, level pegging with MORI...

The coalition is getting royally screwed on energy prices though. Even as a tory I have to say it serves dave and all the turquoise climate tw8ts right.

Ricardohos

Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back but not it seems in the banner. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?

TheWatcher

Jonathan said:

Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

Book a minibus.

Tissue_Price

Jonathan said:

Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

Presumably fight for some of that 35% Ed is clinging on to?

Neil

Ricardohos said:

Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before?

The source of the charts is IPSOS MORI, not Mike. They're the same ones he headed the MORI thread with last time. This political betting stuff is harder than you thought it was, isnt it? I'm sure you'll get the hang of it with time.

SouthamObserver

Ricardohos said:

Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?

You should be putting your mortgage on a thumping Tory majority instead of making £20 bets with Tim.

AveryLP

tim said:

Good to see the Help To Buy madness not polling well

There will be more voters benefitting from the Help to Buy Schemes between now and the General Election than from Ed's impractical and potentially illegal promise to freeze energy prices.

What you see in a shop window may excite you but it is what you buy and take home that drives retail sales.

Ricardohos

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ricardohos said:

Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

yes he bloody well has

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/

Nope.

'Amongst those certain to vote' wasn't a caveat in that banner headline. Just intrigued to winkle out any innate biases that keep creeping in.

Spot the difference:

Then:
'Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels'

Now
'CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI' (italics mine)

Tykejohnno

TheWatcher said:

Jonathan said:

Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

Book a minibus.

A Taxi ? ;-)

Neil

SouthamObserver said:

Ricardohos said:

Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?

You should be putting your mortgage on a thumping Tory majority instead of making £20 bets with Tim.

That's an awful lot of money to leave tied up on the top of his drawer.

taffys

Of course, the advice to switch only makes sense if there is a properly functioning market for supply.

How can there be a proper market for supply when the government is closing down one of the best methods of supply, coal fired power stations,without replacing them with equivalent capacity.

You can't expect to close down half the worlds gold mines and expect the price of gold to remain stable.

AveryLP

RichardNabavi said:

That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.

Plato

AveryLP said:

RichardNabavi said:

That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.

ONS @statisticsONS
#Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.

TheScreamingEagles

Ricardohos said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ricardohos said:

Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

yes he bloody well has

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/

Nope.

'Amongst those certain to vote' wasn't a caveat in that banner headline. Just intrigued to winkle out any innate biases that keep creeping in.

I'm not sure why I'm debating with someone who has reading comprehension issues.

If you noticed, last months banner headline wasn't exactly a positive for Ed was it, getting compared to some crap leaders of the opposition.

Plus you're reading far too much into banner headlines.

Speaking from experience, there's no great thought put into them, wordpress creates the URL based on what was first written

take this one I wrote, when Dave lost the Syria vote

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/29/if-cameron-loses-the-vote-thread/

Neil

AveryLP said:

RichardNabavi said:

That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.

It's just people realising that better times under a Labour government are getting closer

TGOHF

Dreadful poll for Labour.

Tissue_Price

I'm still a big fan of No Overall Majority myself, but there does appear to be a very strong groupthink amongst the media that the 2010 result must (a) represent Labour's 2015 floor and (b) probably roughly represent the Tories' 2015 ceiling.

(a) is more likely to be right because of the ex-LD lefties, but (b) is looking increasingly suspect. Based on the mid-term polling at the moment, in conjunction with the improving economy, I reckon we could well be looking at something like Lab 32 Con 38 LD 14.

AveryLP

Jonathan said:

Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

There is hope for the Lib Dems and Clegg.

What pollsters should be asking the 2010 Lib Dems is the following question:

"If it looked like Labour were not going to win the General Election, which party would you vote for if the election were to be held tomorrow?"

SouthamObserver

Plato said:

AveryLP said:

RichardNabavi said:

That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.

ONS @statisticsONS
#Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.

Why would a Labourite hope for bad news? Labourites have to live in the UK too.

Scrapheap_as_was

Good poll for Ed and the Tories...

Who'd a thunk it... normally it's a good poll for Cammo and Labour!

Scrapheap_as_was

They won't be putting up my price - I fixed last year until Nov 2014...

I might give a toss then.

Ricardohos

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ricardohos said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ricardohos said:

Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

yes he bloody well has

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/

Nope.

'Amongst those certain to vote' wasn't a caveat in that banner headline. Just intrigued to winkle out any innate biases that keep creeping in.

I'm not sure why I'm debating with someone who has reading comprehension issues.

Plus you're reading far too much into banner headlines.

Speaking from experience, there's no great thought put into them ... take this one I wrote,

Because it matters. Banner headlines are read, and re-read and they're the bit that people grab, and if there has been a change in the way data is presented we need to be clear about that. I've no problem with the caveat providing it appears every time and doesn't come across as giving the teeniest-weeniest hint of a sulking thread writer that the country narrative isn't moving in the direction he predicted. Still happy to call a Conservative majority "pure fantasy" Mike? Or would you care to apologise as you once asked me to do?

Oh, and I wouldn't take too much pride Screamer in the idea that you don't think much about what you publish.

TGOHF

Perhaps Ed internal-only popularity is soaring due to him not sacking Burnham ?

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/17/fear-and-loathing-in-the-plp-what-really-happened-in-labours-reshuffle/

"Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources, seeking to tell their side of the story about what is going on beneath the slowly fracturing façade of PLP unity.

Piecing together the various accounts, a rather different picture emerges of the reshuffle, to the one commonly reported....."

Ricardohos

So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.

TGOHF

SeanT said:

PaulTOwen ‏@PaulTOwen 1m
Labour and Tories neck and neck, 35:35 in Evening Standard/Ipsos Mori poll http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-economic-boost-melts-labours-lead-over-tories-poll-shows-8886383.html …

That's really all we need to know. All the rest is Smithsonian guff.

OGH talking up his 5 more years of Con-Dem coalition book

Neil

TGOHF said:

Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources

Dan Hodges and who else?

SouthamObserver

Ricardohos said:

So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.

Given all this, how much have you staked - in addition to your £20 with Tim - on a Tory victory? It's free money, isn't it?

AndyJS

Where's Sunil with his "Ed is great, Ed - for want of a better phrase - cuts through" mantra?

Tykejohnno

tim said:

@Avery.

I'm willing to tie up 12p until christmas and bet you that all the energy companies put up their prices and Dave looks increasingly silly advising people to change suppliers each time another one does.
I can make it 15p if you like.

Agree,can't believe the government message is to switch energy company,out of the remaining energy companies,can anyone tell me the one that will freeze or bring down the price. ?

AndyJS

What I find arresting is that the LD vote has sunk from 24% to 9% and yet the Labour vote has only risen from 30% to 35%.

JosiasJessop

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

isam

I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!

TGOHF

Neil said:

TGOHF said:

Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources

Dan Hodges and who else?

This craven complacency heartens me.

another_richard

Plato said:

AveryLP said:

RichardNabavi said:

That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.

ONS @statisticsONS
#Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.

You should be rather worried if you're hoping for a stronger economy.

Because even more buying of imported tat which we don't need with borrowed money which we don't have is the opposite of what the economy needs.

A government subsidised consumption bubble which benefits estate agents and DFS is straight from the Gordon Brown manual.

But then again Cameron and Osborne saw nothing wrong with Brownomics so its not surprising that they're continuing to implement it.

isam

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

Ricardohos

SouthamObserver said:

Ricardohos said:

So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.

Given all this, how much have you staked - in addition to your £20 with Tim - on a Tory victory? It's free money, isn't it?

That was precisely the point which Tim has managed unintentionally to illustrate below. By betting with him on here it's not tied up, providing he still has the means to pay up in 19 months if he loses. Staking via Will Hill et. al. now ties up the money. That was a fairly major point but I didn't see the need to educate one or two who clearly thought they knew better.

Having said that, I have staked but let's be clear there's no such thing as 'free money' in betting. If you want to go down that route the 1/7 on a 2015 election, despite the odds, must be a reasonable bet. The return on that is better than you'd get at most banks.

AndyJS

isam said:

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

They'll do well but won't win.

SouthamObserver

isam said:

I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!

Real Madrid's next galactico speaks sense. Is the story still rumbling on though? It looks to have died a death.

Neil

TGOHF said:

Neil said:

TGOHF said:

Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources

Dan Hodges and who else?

This craven complacency heartens me.

I'm not complacent about Labour's current positioning, I'm indifferent.

Ricardohos

tim said:

JosiasJessop said:

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.

You really like throwing words like 'fool' around Tim but I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely) as you. When you finally sign off at night and try to sleep you must feel pretty wretched deep inside.

isam

AndyJS said:

isam said:

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

They'll do well but won't win.

Cant be a 16/1 shot for me... nearer the time there may be under/over %s worth playing

HopiSen

One reason it's worth keeping an eye on the 'all expressing a preference' number is that it allows better comparison's with Mori's historical polling, which was conducted that way until 2002.

AveryLP

tim said:

@Avery.

I'm willing to tie up 12p until christmas and bet you that all the energy companies put up their prices and Dave looks increasingly silly advising people to change suppliers each time another one does.
I can make it 15p if you like.

I wouldn't want to deprive your daughters of their father's Christmas presents, tim.

Although I probably agree with you on the price trends, that doesn't mean Dave is wrong in pushing the switching line. He is still giving much needed impetus to competitive forces in the industry.

Energy prices have risen way above the rate of inflation for decades. Price increases have not been driven by lack of competition in the supply industry: they are the product of political policy both national and international. Even if the UK had the most competitive domestic energy supply industry in the world it would make not make a substantial difference to the prices consumers pay for household gas and electricity.

What is needed from our politicians is a mature debate about the prices consumers are prepared to pay to secure future (and competitive) supplies of energy and to save the planet.

Tykejohnno

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!

Real Madrid's next galactico speaks sense. Is the story still rumbling on though? It looks to have died a death.

No wonder spurs fans never see themselves winning the premiership,a good player comes along and they know he's going to be sold ;-)

SouthamObserver

Ricardohos said:

SouthamObserver said:

Ricardohos said:

So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.

Given all this, how much have you staked - in addition to your £20 with Tim - on a Tory victory? It's free money, isn't it?

That was precisely the point which Tim has managed unintentionally to illustrate below. By betting with him on here it's not tied up, providing he still has the means to pay up in 19 months if he loses. Staking via Will Hill et. al. now ties up the money. That was a fairly major point but I didn't see the need to educate one or two who clearly thought they knew better.

Having said that, I have staked but let's be clear there's no such thing as 'free money' in betting. If you want to go down that route the 1/7 on a 2015 election, despite the odds, must be a reasonable bet. The return on that is better than you'd get at most banks.

I'd tie up every bit of available cash I had for 18 months or so if I knew I was going to treble what I had staked. It's not worth waiting over a year for a 1/7; it sure is for a 3/1.

Pulpstar

isam said:

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

Did you get on for more than a fiver ?

MrJones

FPT

Grandiose said:

More good crime figures (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_331209.pdf, although I think the CSEW are the same (possibly revised) figures that were out a month or two ago, not sure).

More importantly the government has to leave its comfort zone of going-to-hell-in-a-handcart and paint a positive picture, even if it is one that includes "unacceptable" levels and/or high absolute numbers and/or "we can do even better".

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/boys-quizzed-over-500-rapes-a-year-by-gangs-8335165.html

CarlottaVance

TGOHF said:

Perhaps Ed internal-only popularity is soaring due to him not sacking Burnham ?

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/17/fear-and-loathing-in-the-plp-what-really-happened-in-labours-reshuffle

Quite a vicious article in The Daily Mail Labour uncut:

"Tristram Hunt is being positioned as the anti-Chuka.

Expect Hunt to be given substantial policy leeway and prime media opportunities, much as Chuka once enjoyed, to set a Hunt-for-leader bandwagon rolling, preferably straight into Chuka’s."

Talking of which the Hon Hunt has just been on WATO, not as good as Marr, but not as bad as the HoC.....

TGOHF

The political alignment graphic is instructive.

Ed furthest from the centre of the main3 party leaders.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!

Real Madrid's next galactico speaks sense. Is the story still rumbling on though? It looks to have died a death.

Hope so. All it will have done is further dilute the meaning of the word racism

Anorak

Ricardohos said:

I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely)

tim said:

I don't think travel broadens the internet, there's not a different internet in the Southern Hemisphere

Deuce. Ricardohos to serve.

Pulpstar

Are the 5% that think Ed Miliband is right wing and David Cameron is left wing the same people ?

TGOHF

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

Perhaps Ed internal-only popularity is soaring due to him not sacking Burnham ?

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/17/fear-and-loathing-in-the-plp-what-really-happened-in-labours-reshuffle

Quite a vicious article in The Daily Mail Labour uncut:

"Tristram Hunt is being positioned as the anti-Chuka.

Expect Hunt to be given substantial policy leeway and prime media opportunities, much as Chuka once enjoyed, to set a Hunt-for-leader bandwagon rolling, preferably straight into Chuka’s."

Sounds out the fragrant Balls couple aren't best pleased either - shame..

MrJones

Cameron's comment about switching energy companies pinpoints the problem - the belief that unconstrained capitalism leads to free markets. It doesn't. Unconstrained capitalism leads to cartels and monopolies. The only way to get free markets is if there's a referee imposing strict anti-trust rules.

isam

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

Did you get on for more than a fiver ?

Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

FrankBooth

TGOHF said:

The political alignment graphic is instructive.

Ed furthest from the centre of the main3 party leaders.

It's not instructive at all. 54% think Ed is left of centre, 57% think Dave is right of centre. 24% think Dave is right wing, whereas 26% think Ed is left wing. Splitting hairs.

Slackbladder

tim said:

Ricardohos said:

tim said:

JosiasJessop said:

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.

I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely)

I don't think travel broadens the internet, there's not a different internet in the Southern Hemisphere

Tim has everything he needs in his Merseyside bedsit....

Pulpstar

Nick Clegg seen as 'politically centrist' on the right-left scale, as people see themselves. Could be important for some late swingback to the Lib Dems...

Pulpstar

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

Did you get on for more than a fiver ?

Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

Phone it up ?! Can they not go to their own website and look the odds up...

Pulpstar

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

Did you get on for more than a fiver ?

Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

Perhaps you can pretend to play the Fixed Odds Betting Terminal in the shop whilst you wait, they'll probably take a bigger bet then

isam

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

Political Bet

UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

16/1 Paddy Power

Did you get on for more than a fiver ?

Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

Phone it up ?! Can they not go to their own website and look the odds up...

They phone up their trading room for bets on minor events that take out more than about a tenner

TGOHF

FrankBooth said:

TGOHF said:

The political alignment graphic is instructive.

Ed furthest from the centre of the main3 party leaders.

It's not instructive at all. 54% think Ed is left of centre, 57% think Dave is right of centre. 24% think Dave is right wing, whereas 26% think Ed is left wing. Splitting hairs.

The view of Ed is that the same number of people think of him as left wing than left of centre.

More people think Cam is right of centre rather than right wing.

A classic single data point theory which trumps all.

FrankBooth

About time the energy companies engaged in a fight to the death.

TheWatcher

'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

TGOHF

TheWatcher said:

'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

http://order-order.com/2012/01/12/its-all-gone-wonga-is-ed-in-a-ruddy-mess/

"Despite an on camera promise in October, Ed Miliband has failed to release the list of businessmen and lobbyists he dined with at a secret “off the record” supper organised by Roland Rudd the shady spinmeister. His agency Finsbury has a whole host of “predators” as clients, including at the online loan sharks Wonga."

felix

I think what the polls do show at the moment is that people are relatively uninfluenced by the headline grabbing moments - price freeze, etc - when it comes to how they will vote. I suspect the key influence here has to be the state of the economy. the last 3 weeks have not been great headlines for the tories whereas Ed has done relatively well - yet the poll narrowing has continued regardless for the moment. As SO says - very interesting times.

Plato

FrankBooth said:

About time the energy companies engaged in a fight to the death.

Eh? So there are fewer to compete with each than now? Sometimes I really do wonder...

TGOHF

http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/city-news/wonga-shifts-part-business-tax-2359351

"ayday lender Wonga has moved key parts of its business to Switzerland in a move that could slash its tax bill, experts have revealed."

MikeSmithson

JosiasJessop said:

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

A lot of betting between posters on here ends in tears with those who made the wagers clearing off when they found that they had lost.

I'm personally down £500 after one such instance and most of the regular gamblers have all been hit.

So you have to be very careful about the terms of the bet and who the wager is with.

I'd bet with Tim anytime because he does pay up promptly. You cannot say the same of a number of others.

JosiasJessop

tim said:

JosiasJessop said:

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.

Not understanding an area has never stopped you from wading in, has it?

I mean, look at you rather hilarious contributions about infrastructure over the years.

But my point still stands. Your comments are hardly going to encourage people to bet.

Plato

TheWatcher said:

'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

Labour seems incapable of dealing with any issue without either taxing it, price fixing it or banning it.

I cannot see how taxing payday lenders more will help any of their customers. Either they'll pay more because well that's how markets work or they'll be fewer lenders in the market because its not worth it. So who loses? Those who are the most hard pressed and relying on them.

10secs of thought shows its a crap idea.

Jonathan

Nick Clegg should step down and be replaced by LD leader and Deputy Prime Minister by Vince Cable.

He is the perfect Kevin Rudd figure that the LDs need.

Ricardohos

Slackbladder said:

tim said:

Ricardohos said:

tim said:

JosiasJessop said:

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.

I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely)

I don't think travel broadens the internet, there's not a different internet in the Southern Hemisphere

Tim has everything he needs in his Merseyside bedsit....

Haha quite!

I could make a grammatical point about what was the predicate of the subject, but that wouldn't be truthful to my intent which has got me thinking. I tend not to go on overseas based forums when I'm back in the UK, but I do when I'm out of the country. The converse isn't true however: I posted on here and other UK forums during my recent two month writing travelogue in Asia. Curious.

Anyway, I've noticed that one of Tim's favourite tactics is to deflect away from the point especially when it's aimed at him.

Josias you made a very good point about the betting issue. It's rare these days to find two thread members betting and on this occasion when it happened the owner of the site mocked the size of the bet, which would still have totalled £30 or so, and then Tim produced his usual chothonian fare. As you said, rather sad really.

TGOHF

tim said:

TGOHF said:

TheWatcher said:

'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

http://order-order.com/2012/01/12/its-all-gone-wonga-is-ed-in-a-ruddy-mess/

"Despite an on camera promise in October, Ed Miliband has failed to release the list of businessmen and lobbyists he dined with at a secret “off the record” supper organised by Roland Rudd the shady spinmeister. His agency Finsbury has a whole host of “predators” as clients, including at the online loan sharks Wonga."

So your argument is that Ed is being lobbied by payday loan companies and legislating against them, but that Cameron isn't being lobbied by the tobacco industry yet changes policy to favour them

Thats a killer line, please carry on.

Is that the best you can twist it ?

How about suggesting that I was inferring indirectly through the medium of subliminal invisible font typing that Cam is actually in favour of compulsory smoking levy for the poor to pay for free cigars for rich pensioners ?

JosiasJessop

MikeSmithson said:

JosiasJessop said:

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

A lot of betting between posters on here ends in tears with those who made the wagers clearing off when they found that they had lost.

I'm personally down £500 after one such instance and most of the regular gamblers have all been hit.

So you have to be very careful about the terms of the bet and who the wager is with.

I'd bet with Tim anytime because he does pay up promptly. You cannot say the same of a number of others.

That's undoubtedly true, and it's to Tim's credit that he pays up promptly (although surely he's not alone in that). But it's also irrelevant to the point.

The bet had been agreed between the participants. The comments this morning haven't seemed likely to encourage others to place bets.

Ricardohos

MikeSmithson said:

JosiasJessop said:

We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

A lot of betting between posters on here ends in tears with those who made the wagers clearing off when they found that they had lost.

I'm personally down £500 after one such instance and most of the regular gamblers have all been hit.

So you have to be very careful about the terms of the bet and who the wager is with.

That's fair comment and a good point, and I'm sorry for your £500 loss which is a heck of a lot.

RodCrosby

L&N say...

7.3% Tory vote lead
57 Tory seat lead

I'll have some more Monte Carlo stats in a mo...

HortenceWithering

Tim this, Tim that.....on and on it goes.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheWatcher said:

'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

I spy with my little eye, another price cap or rate freeze ....

Just read that Labour Uncut piece - thank goodness for those Mori leader numbers then... from our perspective.

Scrapheap_as_was

HortenceWithering said:

Tim this, Tim that.....on and on he goes.

SouthamObserver

I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.

Scrapheap_as_was

SouthamObserver said:

I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.

Come on you Spurs! Benteke likely to be back for the game against us....

Slackbladder

SouthamObserver said:

I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.

And yet again, you only ever seen one side of anything... ho hum.

MonikerDiCanio

RodCrosby said:

L&N say...

7.3% Tory vote lead
57 Tory seat lead

I'll have some more Monte Carlo stats in a mo...

I more or less agree with L&N.

Tories high 30s or low 40s.
Labour low 30s or high 20s.

Labour are in real trouble but they seem unconcious of the approaching disaster.

Scrapheap_as_was

Owen Jones‏@OwenJones843m
A huge shout of support to our teachers, who today have given a lesson to all of us: stand up for your rights #teacherROAR

Indeed my daughter and her classmates were most concerned to hear their Maths teacher tell them it was to protect their pensions... but he wasn't striking. School open albeit sans PE (....)

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Sun's shining. Most peculiar.

Anyway, sounds like Chilton may be ditched for Magnussen next year. Bianchi's safe (which is fair enough as he's probably the best back-marker driver):
http://www.espn.co.uk/marussia/motorsport/story/130577.html

JosiasJessop

SouthamObserver said:

I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.

Tim has over 11,400 posts since the site was rebooted, many thousands more than the nearest contributor (double? triple?). Perhaps he gets more comments said about him because he is so much more visible, and also exceptionally forthright (if not actually right).

Tim's contributions often dominate this site. You tend to agree with them, so perhaps you don't notice them as much.

Charles

tim said:

Neil said:

SouthamObserver said:

Ricardohos said:

Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?

You should be putting your mortgage on a thumping Tory majority instead of making £20 bets with Tim.

That's an awful lot of money to leave tied up on the top of his drawer.

I went to the pub with £20 last night, had to come home though as I realised it was the one tied up with my bet on the election with Ricardohos.
Really fancied a pint as well.
Won't be making that mistake again.

Making fun of someone less well off than you?

Toxic Tim

AveryLP

another_richard said:

Plato said:

AveryLP said:

RichardNabavi said:

That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.

ONS @statisticsONS
#Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.

You should be rather worried if you're hoping for a stronger economy.

Because even more buying of imported tat which we don't need with borrowed money which we don't have is the opposite of what the economy needs.

A government subsidised consumption bubble which benefits estate agents and DFS is straight from the Gordon Brown manual.

But then again Cameron and Osborne saw nothing wrong with Brownomics so its not surprising that they're continuing to implement it.

Cold noreasterly off the North Sea again, ar?

You need to square your analysis with the fact that the household savings ratio has risen and been higher than trend under the coalition government, households and individuals have reduced their net borrowings and household consumption has been flat over the past three years.

In addition, Government consumption as a share of UK Gross Final Expenditure has fallen from 17.1% (Q2 2010) to 15.6% (Q2 2013) and exports have risen from 23% to 24% over the same period.

Almost all the trends are in the right direction although you will no doubt be dissatisfied with the distance travelled.

Nonetheless my half-time pep talk to the PB Tory team is to be patient: "slowly, slowly catchee monkey".

state_go_away

Personally I am sick of reading about this bet between tim and Richardohos. This site is good at times (was very good once) but can become ridiculous and petty with even the owner joining in mocking stakes and being incredulous at the terms of a bet. I don't know why you support Tim the way you do Mike (it was a lot better reading this site during the time Tim made his 9999th comment and his 10,000th. ). I understand its not a commercial operation you run Mike because if it were I doubt Tim woudl exist on here by now .
I am surprised nobody Tim sneers at on here (I mean politicians rather than fellow punters ) has complained personally.

isam

Re my Thurrock bet, I didn't realise there was a by election today.... could be informative

Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 16m

Unison officials at by-election in Thurrock today: "vote UKIP, get Tory". They are all at it!