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SystemSystem Posts: 12,639
edited October 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI

Amongst all giving a voting intention LAB was 5% ahead
See chart pic.twitter.com/8GuTYRRqlH

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,369
    Before the turnout filter of all voters giving a VI it was (changes from last month)

    Lab 38 (-2)

    Con 33 (+3)

    LD 11(+1)

    Kippers 9 (-1)

    So there definitely has been a narrowing
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

    Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    All in all - another bright and sunny day for the Tories - solid retail sales figs, level pegging with MORI...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,369
    Ricardohos said:

    Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

    Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

    yes he bloody well has

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    FPT @tim
    tim said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak
    Prime Minister David Cameron says British Gas price rises are
    "disappointing" and urges people to try to save money by switching suppliers.

    That line just makes him look more remote than people already think, they all know the other suppliers are following, its a brilliantly stupid line which hits the buffers when the fifth and then sixth company puts up their prices.

    tim

    Are you alleging that the energy suppliers are colluding or co-ordinating price fixing?

    If so, there has been a regulatory failure at best or criminal acts committed at worst.

    If the domestic energy supply market is functioning properly then price increases which promise 'excessive' profits should attract new entrants and aggressive pricing from existing participants who may decide to give short term priority to increasing market share rather than margin.

    This is not purely theoretical. We see it happen regularly with motor fuel pricing as the major forecourt retailers (now mainly supermarket chains) compete for customers and margins.

    Cameron is therefore right to point customers towards switching suppliers as a means of saving costs. Increasing the willingness to switch is supporting those energy suppliers who might be inclined to increase their market share by undercutting competitors' pricing.

    Getting customers to switch utility suppliers is difficult as the inertia effect of entrenched monopoly state supply takes time to dissipate. But the market gets there eventually as can be seen with telecommunication service supply today.

    Of course, the advice to switch only makes sense if there is a properly functioning market for supply. But then it is not politicians who should be making that judgement without first making proper inquiry into and evaluation of the evidence.



  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Aaron Bell @AaronBell80
    @MSmithsonPB Mike, that's one tweet with the headline number followed by 4 looking for a silver lining for Ed. Can't see wood for the trees?
    Ricardohos said:

    Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

    Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Lib Dems. What are you going to do?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Both leaders are regarded to have drifted away from the centre; Dave a little more so than Ed. Dave's right turn coincides with a Tory vote rise though, so that may provide encouragement for even more right-wing popularism. The issue is whether this will seal the deal or do more harm than good. It could win back more UKIPers, but it will also increase wariness of a Tory majority in the centre and on the left. Fascinating times.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    All in all - another bright and sunny day for the Tories - solid retail sales figs, level pegging with MORI...

    The coalition is getting royally screwed on energy prices though. Even as a tory I have to say it serves dave and all the turquoise climate tw8ts right.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited October 2013
    Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back but not it seems in the banner. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

    So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Jonathan said:

    Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

    Book a minibus.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Jonathan said:

    Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

    Presumably fight for some of that 35% Ed is clinging on to?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ricardohos said:

    Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before?

    The source of the charts is IPSOS MORI, not Mike. They're the same ones he headed the MORI thread with last time. This political betting stuff is harder than you thought it was, isnt it? I'm sure you'll get the hang of it with time.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Ricardohos said:

    Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

    So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?

    You should be putting your mortgage on a thumping Tory majority instead of making £20 bets with Tim.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Good to see the Help To Buy madness not polling well

    There will be more voters benefitting from the Help to Buy Schemes between now and the General Election than from Ed's impractical and potentially illegal promise to freeze energy prices.

    What you see in a shop window may excite you but it is what you buy and take home that drives retail sales.

  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited October 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ricardohos said:

    Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

    Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

    yes he bloody well has

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/
    Nope.

    'Amongst those certain to vote' wasn't a caveat in that banner headline. Just intrigued to winkle out any innate biases that keep creeping in.

    Spot the difference:

    Then:
    'Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels'

    Now
    'CON now level pegging with LAB amongst those certain to vote with Ipsos-MORI' (italics mine)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheWatcher said:

    Jonathan said:

    Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

    Book a minibus.

    A Taxi ? ;-)

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SouthamObserver said:

    Ricardohos said:

    Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

    So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?

    You should be putting your mortgage on a thumping Tory majority instead of making £20 bets with Tim.

    That's an awful lot of money to leave tied up on the top of his drawer.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited October 2013
    Of course, the advice to switch only makes sense if there is a properly functioning market for supply.

    How can there be a proper market for supply when the government is closing down one of the best methods of supply, coal fired power stations,without replacing them with equivalent capacity.

    You can't expect to close down half the worlds gold mines and expect the price of gold to remain stable.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    RichardNabavi said:

    That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

    What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

    Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2013
    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

    What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

    Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.
    ONS @statisticsONS
    #Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

    If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,369
    Ricardohos said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ricardohos said:

    Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

    Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

    yes he bloody well has

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/
    Nope.

    'Amongst those certain to vote' wasn't a caveat in that banner headline. Just intrigued to winkle out any innate biases that keep creeping in.
    I'm not sure why I'm debating with someone who has reading comprehension issues.

    If you noticed, last months banner headline wasn't exactly a positive for Ed was it, getting compared to some crap leaders of the opposition.

    Plus you're reading far too much into banner headlines.

    Speaking from experience, there's no great thought put into them, wordpress creates the URL based on what was first written

    take this one I wrote, when Dave lost the Syria vote

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/29/if-cameron-loses-the-vote-thread/
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

    What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

    Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.
    It's just people realising that better times under a Labour government are getting closer ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dreadful poll for Labour.



  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I'm still a big fan of No Overall Majority myself, but there does appear to be a very strong groupthink amongst the media that the 2010 result must (a) represent Labour's 2015 floor and (b) probably roughly represent the Tories' 2015 ceiling.

    (a) is more likely to be right because of the ex-LD lefties, but (b) is looking increasingly suspect. Based on the mid-term polling at the moment, in conjunction with the improving economy, I reckon we could well be looking at something like Lab 32 Con 38 LD 14.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Jonathan said:

    Lib Dems. What are you going to do?

    There is hope for the Lib Dems and Clegg.

    What pollsters should be asking the 2010 Lib Dems is the following question:

    "If it looked like Labour were not going to win the General Election, which party would you vote for if the election were to be held tomorrow?"

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Plato said:

    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

    What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

    Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.
    ONS @statisticsONS
    #Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

    If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.

    Why would a Labourite hope for bad news? Labourites have to live in the UK too.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Good poll for Ed and the Tories...

    Who'd a thunk it... normally it's a good poll for Cammo and Labour!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    They won't be putting up my price - I fixed last year until Nov 2014...

    I might give a toss then.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited October 2013
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ricardohos said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ricardohos said:

    Has Mike every presented the figures in this way before? The Ipsos-Mori poll is basically that they're neck and neck, thus corroborating other pollsters. I don't recall the uncertain to vote being given equal footing in a thread header previously? Subtext, perhaps.

    Anyway, all heading the right way for the Tories just a lot earlier than they expected. 19 months to go. Con majority ahoy.

    yes he bloody well has

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/09/11/latest-ipsos-mori-poll-sees-lab-lead-down-to-3-points-and-eds-satisfaction-ratings-at-william-hague-levels/
    Nope.

    'Amongst those certain to vote' wasn't a caveat in that banner headline. Just intrigued to winkle out any innate biases that keep creeping in.
    I'm not sure why I'm debating with someone who has reading comprehension issues.

    Plus you're reading far too much into banner headlines.

    Speaking from experience, there's no great thought put into them ... take this one I wrote,
    Because it matters. Banner headlines are read, and re-read and they're the bit that people grab, and if there has been a change in the way data is presented we need to be clear about that. I've no problem with the caveat providing it appears every time and doesn't come across as giving the teeniest-weeniest hint of a sulking thread writer that the country narrative isn't moving in the direction he predicted. Still happy to call a Conservative majority "pure fantasy" Mike? Or would you care to apologise as you once asked me to do?

    Oh, and I wouldn't take too much pride Screamer in the idea that you don't think much about what you publish.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Perhaps Ed internal-only popularity is soaring due to him not sacking Burnham ?

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/17/fear-and-loathing-in-the-plp-what-really-happened-in-labours-reshuffle/

    "Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources, seeking to tell their side of the story about what is going on beneath the slowly fracturing façade of PLP unity.

    Piecing together the various accounts, a rather different picture emerges of the reshuffle, to the one commonly reported....."
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    PaulTOwen ‏@PaulTOwen 1m
    Labour and Tories neck and neck, 35:35 in Evening Standard/Ipsos Mori poll http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-economic-boost-melts-labours-lead-over-tories-poll-shows-8886383.html …

    That's really all we need to know. All the rest is Smithsonian guff.

    OGH talking up his 5 more years of Con-Dem coalition book ;)


  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:


    Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources

    Dan Hodges and who else?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Ricardohos said:

    So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.

    Given all this, how much have you staked - in addition to your £20 with Tim - on a Tory victory? It's free money, isn't it?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Where's Sunil with his "Ed is great, Ed - for want of a better phrase - cuts through" mantra?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    @Avery.

    I'm willing to tie up 12p until christmas and bet you that all the energy companies put up their prices and Dave looks increasingly silly advising people to change suppliers each time another one does.
    I can make it 15p if you like.

    Agree,can't believe the government message is to switch energy company,out of the remaining energy companies,can anyone tell me the one that will freeze or bring down the price. ?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    What I find arresting is that the LD vote has sunk from 24% to 9% and yet the Labour vote has only risen from 30% to 35%.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

    andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

    I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources

    Dan Hodges and who else?
    This craven complacency heartens me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,152
    Plato said:

    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

    What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

    Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.
    ONS @statisticsONS
    #Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

    If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.
    You should be rather worried if you're hoping for a stronger economy.

    Because even more buying of imported tat which we don't need with borrowed money which we don't have is the opposite of what the economy needs.

    A government subsidised consumption bubble which benefits estate agents and DFS is straight from the Gordon Brown manual.

    But then again Cameron and Osborne saw nothing wrong with Brownomics so its not surprising that they're continuing to implement it.


  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    SouthamObserver said:

    Ricardohos said:

    So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.

    Given all this, how much have you staked - in addition to your £20 with Tim - on a Tory victory? It's free money, isn't it?

    That was precisely the point which Tim has managed unintentionally to illustrate below. By betting with him on here it's not tied up, providing he still has the means to pay up in 19 months if he loses. Staking via Will Hill et. al. now ties up the money. That was a fairly major point but I didn't see the need to educate one or two who clearly thought they knew better.

    Having said that, I have staked but let's be clear there's no such thing as 'free money' in betting. If you want to go down that route the 1/7 on a 2015 election, despite the odds, must be a reasonable bet. The return on that is better than you'd get at most banks.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power

    They'll do well but won't win.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    isam said:

    I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

    andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

    I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!

    Real Madrid's next galactico speaks sense. Is the story still rumbling on though? It looks to have died a death.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    Over the weeks since Ed Miliband reshuffled the shadow cabinet, Uncut has been contacted by a range of different sources

    Dan Hodges and who else?
    This craven complacency heartens me.
    I'm not complacent about Labour's current positioning, I'm indifferent.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

    I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.

    You really like throwing words like 'fool' around Tim but I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely) as you. When you finally sign off at night and try to sleep you must feel pretty wretched deep inside.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    AndyJS said:

    isam said:

    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power

    They'll do well but won't win.
    Cant be a 16/1 shot for me... nearer the time there may be under/over %s worth playing

  • HopiSenHopiSen Posts: 48
    One reason it's worth keeping an eye on the 'all expressing a preference' number is that it allows better comparison's with Mori's historical polling, which was conducted that way until 2002.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery.

    I'm willing to tie up 12p until christmas and bet you that all the energy companies put up their prices and Dave looks increasingly silly advising people to change suppliers each time another one does.
    I can make it 15p if you like.

    I wouldn't want to deprive your daughters of their father's Christmas presents, tim.

    Although I probably agree with you on the price trends, that doesn't mean Dave is wrong in pushing the switching line. He is still giving much needed impetus to competitive forces in the industry.

    Energy prices have risen way above the rate of inflation for decades. Price increases have not been driven by lack of competition in the supply industry: they are the product of political policy both national and international. Even if the UK had the most competitive domestic energy supply industry in the world it would make not make a substantial difference to the prices consumers pay for household gas and electricity.

    What is needed from our politicians is a mature debate about the prices consumers are prepared to pay to secure future (and competitive) supplies of energy and to save the planet.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

    andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

    I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!

    Real Madrid's next galactico speaks sense. Is the story still rumbling on though? It looks to have died a death.

    No wonder spurs fans never see themselves winning the premiership,a good player comes along and they know he's going to be sold ;-)

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Ricardohos said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Ricardohos said:

    So back to the point: how can this be anything other than disastrous for Labour? It's pretty clear now that there's a trend emerging, which may or may not be sustained but you'd be pretty foolish given the economic data to bet against the Conservatives from here.

    Given all this, how much have you staked - in addition to your £20 with Tim - on a Tory victory? It's free money, isn't it?

    That was precisely the point which Tim has managed unintentionally to illustrate below. By betting with him on here it's not tied up, providing he still has the means to pay up in 19 months if he loses. Staking via Will Hill et. al. now ties up the money. That was a fairly major point but I didn't see the need to educate one or two who clearly thought they knew better.

    Having said that, I have staked but let's be clear there's no such thing as 'free money' in betting. If you want to go down that route the 1/7 on a 2015 election, despite the odds, must be a reasonable bet. The return on that is better than you'd get at most banks.

    I'd tie up every bit of available cash I had for 18 months or so if I knew I was going to treble what I had staked. It's not worth waiting over a year for a 1/7; it sure is for a 3/1.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    isam said:

    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power

    Did you get on for more than a fiver ?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    Grandiose said:

    More good crime figures (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_331209.pdf, although I think the CSEW are the same (possibly revised) figures that were out a month or two ago, not sure).

    More importantly the government has to leave its comfort zone of going-to-hell-in-a-handcart and paint a positive picture, even if it is one that includes "unacceptable" levels and/or high absolute numbers and/or "we can do even better".

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/boys-quizzed-over-500-rapes-a-year-by-gangs-8335165.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited October 2013
    TGOHF said:

    Perhaps Ed internal-only popularity is soaring due to him not sacking Burnham ?

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/17/fear-and-loathing-in-the-plp-what-really-happened-in-labours-reshuffle

    Quite a vicious article in The Daily Mail Labour uncut:

    "Tristram Hunt is being positioned as the anti-Chuka.

    Expect Hunt to be given substantial policy leeway and prime media opportunities, much as Chuka once enjoyed, to set a Hunt-for-leader bandwagon rolling, preferably straight into Chuka’s."

    Talking of which the Hon Hunt has just been on WATO, not as good as Marr, but not as bad as the HoC.....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The political alignment graphic is instructive.

    Ed furthest from the centre of the main3 party leaders.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    I think he is talking about the Roy Hodgson story not Mikes presentation of the latest poll

    andros townsend ‏@andros_townsend 2h

    I don't know what all this fuss is about. No offence was meant and none was taken! It's not even news worthy!

    Real Madrid's next galactico speaks sense. Is the story still rumbling on though? It looks to have died a death.

    Hope so. All it will have done is further dilute the meaning of the word racism
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2013
    Ricardohos said:

    I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely)

    tim said:

    I don't think travel broadens the internet, there's not a different internet in the Southern Hemisphere

    Deuce. Ricardohos to serve.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    Are the 5% that think Ed Miliband is right wing and David Cameron is left wing the same people ;) ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CarlottaVance said:

    TGOHF said:

    Perhaps Ed internal-only popularity is soaring due to him not sacking Burnham ?

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/10/17/fear-and-loathing-in-the-plp-what-really-happened-in-labours-reshuffle

    Quite a vicious article in The Daily Mail Labour uncut:

    "Tristram Hunt is being positioned as the anti-Chuka.

    Expect Hunt to be given substantial policy leeway and prime media opportunities, much as Chuka once enjoyed, to set a Hunt-for-leader bandwagon rolling, preferably straight into Chuka’s."
    Sounds out the fragrant Balls couple aren't best pleased either - shame..
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Cameron's comment about switching energy companies pinpoints the problem - the belief that unconstrained capitalism leads to free markets. It doesn't. Unconstrained capitalism leads to cartels and monopolies. The only way to get free markets is if there's a referee imposing strict anti-trust rules.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power

    Did you get on for more than a fiver ?
    Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TGOHF said:

    The political alignment graphic is instructive.

    Ed furthest from the centre of the main3 party leaders.

    It's not instructive at all. 54% think Ed is left of centre, 57% think Dave is right of centre. 24% think Dave is right wing, whereas 26% think Ed is left wing. Splitting hairs.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    tim said:

    Ricardohos said:

    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

    I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.

    I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely)
    I don't think travel broadens the internet, there's not a different internet in the Southern Hemisphere
    Tim has everything he needs in his Merseyside bedsit....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    Nick Clegg seen as 'politically centrist' on the right-left scale, as people see themselves. Could be important for some late swingback to the Lib Dems...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power

    Did you get on for more than a fiver ?
    Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

    Phone it up ?! Can they not go to their own website and look the odds up...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power

    Did you get on for more than a fiver ?
    Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

    Perhaps you can pretend to play the Fixed Odds Betting Terminal in the shop whilst you wait, they'll probably take a bigger bet then ;)
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    edited October 2013
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Political Bet

    UKIP to win Thurrock in GE 2015.

    16/1 Paddy Power

    Did you get on for more than a fiver ?
    Cant get on! Will do next time I pass a PP shop and have 2 hours to spare while they phone it up

    Phone it up ?! Can they not go to their own website and look the odds up...
    They phone up their trading room for bets on minor events that take out more than about a tenner

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2013
    FrankBooth said:

    TGOHF said:

    The political alignment graphic is instructive.

    Ed furthest from the centre of the main3 party leaders.

    It's not instructive at all. 54% think Ed is left of centre, 57% think Dave is right of centre. 24% think Dave is right wing, whereas 26% think Ed is left wing. Splitting hairs.
    The view of Ed is that the same number of people think of him as left wing than left of centre.

    More people think Cam is right of centre rather than right wing.

    A classic single data point theory which trumps all.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    About time the energy companies engaged in a fight to the death.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

    Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheWatcher said:

    'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

    Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

    http://order-order.com/2012/01/12/its-all-gone-wonga-is-ed-in-a-ruddy-mess/

    "Despite an on camera promise in October, Ed Miliband has failed to release the list of businessmen and lobbyists he dined with at a secret “off the record” supper organised by Roland Rudd the shady spinmeister. His agency Finsbury has a whole host of “predators” as clients, including at the online loan sharks Wonga."
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I think what the polls do show at the moment is that people are relatively uninfluenced by the headline grabbing moments - price freeze, etc - when it comes to how they will vote. I suspect the key influence here has to be the state of the economy. the last 3 weeks have not been great headlines for the tories whereas Ed has done relatively well - yet the poll narrowing has continued regardless for the moment. As SO says - very interesting times.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2013
    FrankBooth said:

    About time the energy companies engaged in a fight to the death.

    Eh? So there are fewer to compete with each than now? Sometimes I really do wonder...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/money/city-news/wonga-shifts-part-business-tax-2359351

    "ayday lender Wonga has moved key parts of its business to Switzerland in a move that could slash its tax bill, experts have revealed."
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited October 2013
    JosiasJessop said:

    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

    A lot of betting between posters on here ends in tears with those who made the wagers clearing off when they found that they had lost.

    I'm personally down £500 after one such instance and most of the regular gamblers have all been hit.

    So you have to be very careful about the terms of the bet and who the wager is with.

    I'd bet with Tim anytime because he does pay up promptly. You cannot say the same of a number of others.



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

    I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.
    Not understanding an area has never stopped you from wading in, has it?

    I mean, look at you rather hilarious contributions about infrastructure over the years.

    But my point still stands. Your comments are hardly going to encourage people to bet.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2013
    TheWatcher said:

    'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

    Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

    Labour seems incapable of dealing with any issue without either taxing it, price fixing it or banning it.

    I cannot see how taxing payday lenders more will help any of their customers. Either they'll pay more because well that's how markets work or they'll be fewer lenders in the market because its not worth it. So who loses? Those who are the most hard pressed and relying on them.

    10secs of thought shows its a crap idea.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Nick Clegg should step down and be replaced by LD leader and Deputy Prime Minister by Vince Cable.

    He is the perfect Kevin Rudd figure that the LDs need.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited October 2013
    Slackbladder said:

    tim said:

    Ricardohos said:

    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

    I suggest you go and look at the initial bet thread where Dickardohos blustered around making a fool of himself and accusing people of being chicken before you wade into an area you don't understand.

    I can honestly say that in two decades I've never seen anyone so disliked and vilified on any forum anywhere in the world (I travel widely)
    I don't think travel broadens the internet, there's not a different internet in the Southern Hemisphere
    Tim has everything he needs in his Merseyside bedsit....
    Haha quite!

    I could make a grammatical point about what was the predicate of the subject, but that wouldn't be truthful to my intent which has got me thinking. I tend not to go on overseas based forums when I'm back in the UK, but I do when I'm out of the country. The converse isn't true however: I posted on here and other UK forums during my recent two month writing travelogue in Asia. Curious.

    Anyway, I've noticed that one of Tim's favourite tactics is to deflect away from the point especially when it's aimed at him.

    Josias you made a very good point about the betting issue. It's rare these days to find two thread members betting and on this occasion when it happened the owner of the site mocked the size of the bet, which would still have totalled £30 or so, and then Tim produced his usual chothonian fare. As you said, rather sad really.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheWatcher said:

    'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

    Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

    http://order-order.com/2012/01/12/its-all-gone-wonga-is-ed-in-a-ruddy-mess/

    "Despite an on camera promise in October, Ed Miliband has failed to release the list of businessmen and lobbyists he dined with at a secret “off the record” supper organised by Roland Rudd the shady spinmeister. His agency Finsbury has a whole host of “predators” as clients, including at the online loan sharks Wonga."
    So your argument is that Ed is being lobbied by payday loan companies and legislating against them, but that Cameron isn't being lobbied by the tobacco industry yet changes policy to favour them

    Thats a killer line, please carry on.

    Is that the best you can twist it ?

    How about suggesting that I was inferring indirectly through the medium of subliminal invisible font typing that Cam is actually in favour of compulsory smoking levy for the poor to pay for free cigars for rich pensioners ?


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    MikeSmithson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

    A lot of betting between posters on here ends in tears with those who made the wagers clearing off when they found that they had lost.

    I'm personally down £500 after one such instance and most of the regular gamblers have all been hit.

    So you have to be very careful about the terms of the bet and who the wager is with.

    I'd bet with Tim anytime because he does pay up promptly. You cannot say the same of a number of others.

    That's undoubtedly true, and it's to Tim's credit that he pays up promptly (although surely he's not alone in that). But it's also irrelevant to the point.

    The bet had been agreed between the participants. The comments this morning haven't seemed likely to encourage others to place bets.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    MikeSmithson said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    We often hear laments on PB about the lack of betting, and about how topics stray away from betting implications.

    There are many reasons for this: off-site betting and the electoral cycle being two biggies.

    It's therefore a shame that when there's a small bet between two of our contributors, one of the participants takes the piss. It's hardly likely to encourage others to place bets ...

    A lot of betting between posters on here ends in tears with those who made the wagers clearing off when they found that they had lost.

    I'm personally down £500 after one such instance and most of the regular gamblers have all been hit.

    So you have to be very careful about the terms of the bet and who the wager is with.


    That's fair comment and a good point, and I'm sorry for your £500 loss which is a heck of a lot.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    L&N say...

    7.3% Tory vote lead
    57 Tory seat lead

    I'll have some more Monte Carlo stats in a mo...
  • HortenceWitheringHortenceWithering Posts: 145
    Tim this, Tim that.....on and on it goes.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheWatcher said:

    'Labour plans payday lenders levy to fund low-cost credit'

    Presumably the lenders will simply hike up their interest rates to pay the levy. Another well crafted plan.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24560098

    I spy with my little eye, another price cap or rate freeze ....

    Just read that Labour Uncut piece - thank goodness for those Mori leader numbers then... from our perspective.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    HortenceWithering said:

    Tim this, Tim that.....on and on he goes.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    SouthamObserver said:

    I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.

    Come on you Spurs! Benteke likely to be back for the game against us....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    SouthamObserver said:

    I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.

    And yet again, you only ever seen one side of anything... ho hum.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    RodCrosby said:

    L&N say...

    7.3% Tory vote lead
    57 Tory seat lead

    I'll have some more Monte Carlo stats in a mo...

    I more or less agree with L&N.

    Tories high 30s or low 40s.
    Labour low 30s or high 20s.

    Labour are in real trouble but they seem unconcious of the approaching disaster.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Owen Jones‏@OwenJones843m
    A huge shout of support to our teachers, who today have given a lesson to all of us: stand up for your rights #teacherROAR

    Indeed my daughter and her classmates were most concerned to hear their Maths teacher tell them it was to protect their pensions... but he wasn't striking. School open albeit sans PE (....)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Sun's shining. Most peculiar.

    Anyway, sounds like Chilton may be ditched for Magnussen next year. Bianchi's safe (which is fair enough as he's probably the best back-marker driver):
    http://www.espn.co.uk/marussia/motorsport/story/130577.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    SouthamObserver said:

    I find all the repetitive posts from the same old suspects about "Tim this, Tim that" the most tedious and unappealing aspect of this site. It is extraordinary that people can be so obsessed by one poster. Oh, and the whines about PB's bias. Note to whiners: not reporting something in exactly the way you would like it to be reported is not bias; the bias is entirely yours.

    Tim has over 11,400 posts since the site was rebooted, many thousands more than the nearest contributor (double? triple?). Perhaps he gets more comments said about him because he is so much more visible, and also exceptionally forthright (if not actually right).

    Tim's contributions often dominate this site. You tend to agree with them, so perhaps you don't notice them as much.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Neil said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Ricardohos said:

    Ed. actually he kind-of-does looking back. The headline grabber is neck-and-neck.

    So, just to turn this on its head, an opposition party mid-term and only neck and neck with the Government that has taken the country through austerity measures, with a recovering economy, rising house prices and an inept leader: what hope for Labour?

    You should be putting your mortgage on a thumping Tory majority instead of making £20 bets with Tim.

    That's an awful lot of money to leave tied up on the top of his drawer.
    I went to the pub with £20 last night, had to come home though as I realised it was the one tied up with my bet on the election with Ricardohos.
    Really fancied a pint as well.
    Won't be making that mistake again.
    Making fun of someone less well off than you?

    Toxic Tim
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    another_richard said:

    Plato said:

    AveryLP said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    That's the best economic optimism figure since 1997, other than the peak reached when the 2008 crisis was receding in early 2009.

    What should hearten the PB Tory faithful is that optimism levels are starting from a very low point and rising fast.

    Which means there is much ground to be made up and plenty of time to get there.
    ONS @statisticsONS
    #Retail sales quarter on quarter growth of 1.5% highest since March 2008 bit.ly/GQZ8bB

    If I were a Labourite hoping for poor news and bashing the Tories over the economy/jobs - I'd be rather worried now.
    You should be rather worried if you're hoping for a stronger economy.

    Because even more buying of imported tat which we don't need with borrowed money which we don't have is the opposite of what the economy needs.

    A government subsidised consumption bubble which benefits estate agents and DFS is straight from the Gordon Brown manual.

    But then again Cameron and Osborne saw nothing wrong with Brownomics so its not surprising that they're continuing to implement it.


    Cold noreasterly off the North Sea again, ar?

    You need to square your analysis with the fact that the household savings ratio has risen and been higher than trend under the coalition government, households and individuals have reduced their net borrowings and household consumption has been flat over the past three years.

    In addition, Government consumption as a share of UK Gross Final Expenditure has fallen from 17.1% (Q2 2010) to 15.6% (Q2 2013) and exports have risen from 23% to 24% over the same period.

    Almost all the trends are in the right direction although you will no doubt be dissatisfied with the distance travelled.

    Nonetheless my half-time pep talk to the PB Tory team is to be patient: "slowly, slowly catchee monkey".

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,856
    Personally I am sick of reading about this bet between tim and Richardohos. This site is good at times (was very good once) but can become ridiculous and petty with even the owner joining in mocking stakes and being incredulous at the terms of a bet. I don't know why you support Tim the way you do Mike (it was a lot better reading this site during the time Tim made his 9999th comment and his 10,000th. ). I understand its not a commercial operation you run Mike because if it were I doubt Tim woudl exist on here by now .
    I am surprised nobody Tim sneers at on here (I mean politicians rather than fellow punters ) has complained personally.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,333
    Re my Thurrock bet, I didn't realise there was a by election today.... could be informative

    Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 16m

    Unison officials at by-election in Thurrock today: "vote UKIP, get Tory". They are all at it!
This discussion has been closed.

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