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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair moves sharply back to Macron for French President following a run of good polls
Over the past week there has been a strong move on the betting markets to the 39 year old independent, Emmanuel Macron, for next French president following a series of polls that have him clearly in the top two for a runoff place.
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First!0
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One for the wine buffs on here.
The perfect wine to accompany pheasant.0 -
3 in the net - like liverpool0
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Macron could still be pulled under by a scandal. Everyone else seems to be.0
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There is a long way to go. Macron had his lead over Fillon cut by one point in today's ifop poll.
He is a worthy favourite, but Fillon is hanging in there.0 -
Sixth!0
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That's what I was thinking. With so much movement in the market this far out, surely the guy at almost evens is more likely to be a lay than a back? Or is Macron going to be the last man standing who's untouched by scandal? I think I'm sticking with laying Le Pen for now.rottenborough said:Macron could still be pulled under by a scandal. Everyone else seems to be.
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Le Pen is already at or over 40% in the runoff with Macron in the latest Kantar and Harris polls and while Macron is favourite the rumour is the Russians have further information on his private life they are storing up if he gets to a second round against Le Pen
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20170 -
I suppose ultimately someone has to win. Jeez. It's a crap shoot.0
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Mr. P, considering the circumstances, it could've been a lot worse.0
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Is that a remark to the sniper?DavidL said:Jeez. It's a crap shoot.
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His speeches are stunningly dull but this still seems excessive.Scott_P said:0 -
The French voting for Macron is them voting for more of the same. So disappointing. Ditto for the Germans voting for Merkel. Do these countries not see the economic, social, European, migration, etc crises?0
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Mr. L, "The speech was so tedious I was forced to shoot some bystanders in the leg simply as a means of passing the time."
Mind you, as far as a story involving a sniper and the French president goes, it could've been rather worse. Glad the unfortunate wounded aren't injured too severely.0 -
They will do by this summer. I fear Europe is going to be overwhelmed by migrants trying to get in and Europe has no answer whatsover. Some in Europe may out trump Trump, God forbidCornishBlue said:The French voting for Macron is them voting for more of the same. So disappointing. Ditto for the Germans voting for Merkel. Do these countries not see the economic, social, European, migration, etc crises?
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Theresa May has apparently given up crisps for lent. Unfortunately she finds nuts a little more difficult.0
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Nicolas DuPont-Aignon's website calls for unilaterally withdrawing from sanctions on Russia. What is it with right-wingers and Russia???0
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Working on nothing bar the polling, it looks like the drift to Le Pen is there but it isn't quick enough for her to win against Macron. Against Fillon though....HYUFD said:Le Pen is already at or over 40% in the runoff with Macron in the latest Kantar and Harris polls and while Macron is favourite the rumour is the Russians have further information on his private life they are storing up if he gets to a second round against Le Pen
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
She looks like she could poll in the 40-45% band.0 -
I am now +£100 Macron, 0 the field thanks to a tip presumably here back in November. Any value in taking some profit?0
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Oops, I suspect someone will soon be losing their fire arms badge.Scott_P said:0 -
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To paraphrase Maggie, you can't blame them: it's always better where the EU is.Big_G_NorthWales said:I fear Europe is going to be overwhelmed by migrants trying to get in
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Mr. Quidder, not quite as splendid as you, but I did hedge a bit for a minor green result for anyone else and a larger green result for Macron. If the rumours of leaks to come if he makes round two against Le Pen, I think a little bit of hedging might be wise, but entirely up to you.0
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If anyone is a kipper or has a copy of the UKIP rulebook, can Carswell just be expelled from the party? In normal political parties a member has to do something wrong to be subject to disciplinary proceedings.0
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Not really a surprise.Scott_P said:0 -
I was about £800 in the Green on Macron, but have taken advantage of the shifting odds to go Green on Fillon. I am now sitting comfortably all green, but whoever comes up against LePen will win hands down.ThreeQuidder said:I am now +£100 Macron, 0 the field thanks to a tip presumably here back in November. Any value in taking some profit?
I think a run off of Macron vs Fillon would be a more interesting final two in terms of deciding the future of France, but doesn't appear likely.0 -
Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.RobD said:
Not really a surprise.Scott_P said:
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?0 -
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/253/attachments/original/1486991020/Rules_of_Procedure_Feb_2017.pdf?1486991020DM_Andy said:If anyone is a kipper or has a copy of the UKIP rulebook, can Carswell just be expelled from the party? In normal political parties a member has to do something wrong to be subject to disciplinary proceedings.
W.1.10 Any action which is in public opposition to the Party or its core aims, orwhich
brings the Party into disrepute, shall be considered to be grounds for Disciplinary
action under Section AA of the Rules of Procedure.
W.1.11 seems to be the bit which provides for expulsion.0 -
They also see and are repelled by Trumpism and Faragism.CornishBlue said:The French voting for Macron is them voting for more of the same. So disappointing. Ditto for the Germans voting for Merkel. Do these countries not see the economic, social, European, migration, etc crises?
There is no easy cure for the ills of globalism, as will become apparent here and in America.0 -
The only other reference to "expel" in that document is I.5 The Party Secretary has the right to suspend or expel members who clearly bring the Party into disrepute by association with or membership of an organisation, membership of which the NEC has declared to be incompatible with membership of the Party or establish a group in opposition to an official UKIP group.Ishmael_Z said:
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/253/attachments/original/1486991020/Rules_of_Procedure_Feb_2017.pdf?1486991020DM_Andy said:If anyone is a kipper or has a copy of the UKIP rulebook, can Carswell just be expelled from the party? In normal political parties a member has to do something wrong to be subject to disciplinary proceedings.
W.1.10 Any action which is in public opposition to the Party or its core aims, orwhich
brings the Party into disrepute, shall be considered to be grounds for Disciplinary
action under Section AA of the Rules of Procedure.
W.1.11 seems to be the bit which provides for expulsion.0 -
PBers will be interested to know that I am currently 'doing a Jezza' and sitting on the floor of the delayed 18:00 from Kings X. Disruption due to 'a person being hit by a train at Sandy', and my train (18:03 Skipton) was cancelled.
Maybe if we had more relaxed rules on firearms ownership people would find a way to top themselves that wasn't quite so disruptive to the travelling public - or traumatising to train drivers.
As I type we are now slowing down and stopping...0 -
What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?0
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In UKIP, if you do something right (or moral) you are immediately out.DM_Andy said:If anyone is a kipper or has a copy of the UKIP rulebook, can Carswell just be expelled from the party? In normal political parties a member has to do something wrong to be subject to disciplinary proceedings.
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FPT
Pretty near the top of the tree, if not at the pinnacle. Pratchett was still at his creative best in those works, before he became formulaic. He was inventing a new world and could get in some biting social satire whilst keeping the comedy flowing.Fysics_Teacher said:
Where do you put "Guards, Guards"?0 -
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Mr. Thompson, agree entirely. Peers are being foolish. Still, makes them look right-on.0
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http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/lords/composition-of-the-lords/SquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Conservative 252
Labour 202
Crossbench 178
Lib Dem 102
Bishops 26
Non-affiliated 31
Other 14 (3 DUP, 3 UKIP, 2 UUP, 2 Ind Lab, 1 Grn, 1 Ind Soc Dem, 1 Ind UU, 1 PC)
Total 8050 -
Guards, Guards was the first one I read. Years before any of the others.HurstLlama said:FPT
Pretty near the top of the tree, if not at the pinnacle. Pratchett was still at his creative best in those works, before he became formulaic. He was inventing a new world and could get in some biting social satire whilst keeping the comedy flowing.Fysics_Teacher said:
Where do you put "Guards, Guards"?0 -
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_LordsSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Conservatives are only 252 of 805, but they've been bloody good at whipping recently, they got 207 out the other night at some time past 11. A lot of the crossbenchers will probably abstain, but if they go against the government then the ping pong will start.0 -
Only read three Discworld stories (in one volume), but I think Guards, Guards was amongst them.
Enjoyed the books, excepting the absence of chapters and the use of 'should of'.0 -
Two new Dutch polls
VVD (Rutte) tied with PVV (WIlders) on 22
and
PVV 28 lead by 1 over VVD
Fair value now 2.5 IMO which puts a little value in Hills and Ladbrokes @ 2.750 -
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Thanks Ishmael, the whole of W.1. seems to only apply to ordinary members, not those that have elected office or any formal position in the party. Carswell will need to be careful of "W.5 Elected members should not make public statements which contradict PartyIshmael_Z said:
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/253/attachments/original/1486991020/Rules_of_Procedure_Feb_2017.pdf?1486991020
W.1.10 Any action which is in public opposition to the Party or its core aims, orwhich
brings the Party into disrepute, shall be considered to be grounds for Disciplinary
action under Section AA of the Rules of Procedure.
W.1.11 seems to be the bit which provides for expulsion.
policy except in accordance with L.12 above." and "W.6 Elected members should refrain from public criticism of other Party members" but I think he's been just within the lines.
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I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
What a pain, I feel for you.SandyRentool said:PBers will be interested to know that I am currently 'doing a Jezza' and sitting on the floor of the delayed 18:00 from Kings X. Disruption due to 'a person being hit by a train at Sandy', and my train (18:03 Skipton) was cancelled.
Maybe if we had more relaxed rules on firearms ownership people would find a way to top themselves that wasn't quite so disruptive to the travelling public - or traumatising to train drivers.
As I type we are now slowing down and stopping...
Surprisingly, I find that there are markedly more suicides than homicides by firearm in the US: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/10/21/gun-homicides-steady-after-decline-in-90s-suicide-rate-edges-up/
Not sure what to conclude from this, but I think your proposal causes more problems than it solves.0 -
All others were only 228 for a total number voting of 435. That number rings a bell!Sandpit said:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_LordsSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Conservatives are only 252 of 805, but they've been bloody good at whipping recently, they got 207 out the other night at some time past 11. A lot of the crossbenchers will probably abstain, but if they go against the government then the ping pong will start.0 -
Surely on that basis, the elected Mr Farage has overstepped the line somewhat?DM_Andy said:
Thanks Ishmael, the whole of W.1. seems to only apply to ordinary members, not those that have elected office or any formal position in the party. Carswell will need to be careful of "W.5 Elected members should not make public statements which contradict PartyIshmael_Z said:
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/253/attachments/original/1486991020/Rules_of_Procedure_Feb_2017.pdf?1486991020
W.1.10 Any action which is in public opposition to the Party or its core aims, orwhich
brings the Party into disrepute, shall be considered to be grounds for Disciplinary
action under Section AA of the Rules of Procedure.
W.1.11 seems to be the bit which provides for expulsion.
policy except in accordance with L.12 above." and "W.6 Elected members should refrain from public criticism of other Party members" but I think he's been just within the lines.0 -
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
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Maskerade and thief of time for me. Pure comic genius.Scott_P said:
Guards, Guards was the first one I read. Years before any of the others.HurstLlama said:FPT
Pretty near the top of the tree, if not at the pinnacle. Pratchett was still at his creative best in those works, before he became formulaic. He was inventing a new world and could get in some biting social satire whilst keeping the comedy flowing.Fysics_Teacher said:
Where do you put "Guards, Guards"?0 -
I think there's a handy two word phase for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
To be fair Parliament could change its mind later on, and repeal those provisions of the Act.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
If Nissan were going to use a fund of £100m to bring more of their supply chain to the U.K. that sounds seriously good value for money for U.K. Plc. It would have a significant effect on our balance of payments.Scott_P said:0 -
I would normally agree but I'm still spooked by the fact we both thought that about Clinton. Yes, under the French system she would have won and yes, she was a weaker candidate than Macron (I know you will disagree with me on that, but she really was) yet even allowing for that, the way things have gone so far there seems a non-trivial risk of the rival to Le Pen being sunk by some ghastly scandal just befor the run-off, handing her the election more or less faute de mieux.foxinsoxuk said:
I was about £800 in the Green on Macron, but have taken advantage of the shifting odds to go Green on Fillon. I am now sitting comfortably all green, but whoever comes up against LePen will win hands down.ThreeQuidder said:I am now +£100 Macron, 0 the field thanks to a tip presumably here back in November. Any value in taking some profit?
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Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
Update - I have now de-Jezzed and found a seat! Train still at a standstill though, in a queue waiting to pass the site of the incident.0
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JingoHurstLlama said:FPT
Pretty near the top of the tree, if not at the pinnacle. Pratchett was still at his creative best in those works, before he became formulaic. He was inventing a new world and could get in some biting social satire whilst keeping the comedy flowing.Fysics_Teacher said:
Where do you put "Guards, Guards"?
Lords and Ladies
Interesting Times
But of all Pratchett's work, Good Omens remains my favourite (OK, I know Neil Gaiman co-wrote it).0 -
The Reverant was really set in the wrong country, wasn't it.SandyRentool said:Update - I have now de-Jezzed and found a seat! Train still at a standstill though, in a queue waiting to pass the site of the incident.
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That is so unacceptable but seems to sum up your dislike of our own Countrymen and women .williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
Agreed. If we look like the epitome of callousness it simply makes the EU hardliners' job easier. By extending an olive branch we make it easier for those in the EU hierarchy who want the minimum damage.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
Here in n Cyprus. BBC world news is Trump all the way.. źzzzzzzzzzzzzzzźRobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
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And his characters always fire their crossbows.Morris_Dancer said:Only read three Discworld stories (in one volume), but I think Guards, Guards was amongst them.
Enjoyed the books, excepting the absence of chapters and the use of 'should of'.
Still, even my GCSE textbooks get that wrong.0 -
Nonsense. williamglenn has never said a bad word about EU citizens.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is so unacceptable but seems to sum up your dislike of our own Countrymen and women .williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking? 0 -
There is no value in guaranteeing the right to remain of the 16hr a week chicken shop workers who are pulling in tens of thousands a year in benefits.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?
I'm not even sure that my local Romanian Big Issue Seller is indispensible.
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May has already offered to do an early deal on this, but was rebuffed.Beverley_C said:
Agreed. If we look like the epitome of callousness it simply makes the EU hardliners' job easier. By extending an olive branch we make it easier for those in the EU hierarchy who want the minimum damage.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
We'll be mining the Channel by the end of the decade at this rate..Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will do by this summer. I fear Europe is going to be overwhelmed by migrants trying to get in and Europe has no answer whatsover. Some in Europe may out trump Trump, God forbidCornishBlue said:The French voting for Macron is them voting for more of the same. So disappointing. Ditto for the Germans voting for Merkel. Do these countries not see the economic, social, European, migration, etc crises?
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NRE still saying the lines are closed: http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/158791.aspxSandyRentool said:Update - I have now de-Jezzed and found a seat! Train still at a standstill though, in a queue waiting to pass the site of the incident.
Fingers crossed they can get you on your way soon.0 -
To him these foreigners *are* his countrymen and -women.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is so unacceptable but seems to sum up your dislike of our own Countrymen and women .williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
Will no-one think of the stoats?RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
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I know there are stats showing immigrants pay more in tax than they claim in welfare. I suspect the same is true for EU immigrants.chestnut said:
There is no value in guaranteeing the right to remain of the 16hr a week chicken shop workers who are pulling in tens of thousands a year in benefits.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?
I'm not even sure that my local Romanian Big Issue Seller is indispensible.0 -
Negotiation should proceed on the basis of quid pro quo.Beverley_C said:
Agreed. If we look like the epitome of callousness it simply makes the EU hardliners' job easier. By extending an olive branch we make it easier for those in the EU hierarchy who want the minimum damage.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
For me, it would have to Thief of Time or Mort, although in the current climate I may re-read "Jingo" or "The Truth"ydoethur said:
JingoHurstLlama said:FPT
Pretty near the top of the tree, if not at the pinnacle. Pratchett was still at his creative best in those works, before he became formulaic. He was inventing a new world and could get in some biting social satire whilst keeping the comedy flowing.Fysics_Teacher said:
Where do you put "Guards, Guards"?
Lords and Ladies
Interesting Times
But of all Pratchett's work, Good Omens remains my favourite (OK, I know Neil Gaiman co-wrote it).
Small Gods was a complete thumbs-down second to only Unseen Academicals which was Pratchett's nadir IMO0 -
Surely any self-respecting hereditary would already have their robes!Restharrow said:
Will no-one think of the stoats?RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
0 -
As a whole yes, not necessarily as individuals.RobD said:
I know there are stats showing immigrants pay more in tax than they claim in welfare. I suspect the same is true for EU immigrants.chestnut said:
There is no value in guaranteeing the right to remain of the 16hr a week chicken shop workers who are pulling in tens of thousands a year in benefits.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?
I'm not even sure that my local Romanian Big Issue Seller is indispensible.0 -
Genuine question, how many hereditary peers are there currently in the Commons? I know of at least one. Not that May would need to fear by-elections of course...RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
0 -
Mr. Doethur, I do try to avoid firing both crossbows and bows in my books.
Incidentally, if anyone would like a sort of Flashman meets Discworld meets Blackadder fantasy-comedy nonsense, do try The Adventures of Sir Edric. Hoping to get the second book out this year.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK/
Mrs C, May was willing to do an early reciprocal deal. The EU declined.-1 -
92 at present (not counting those that also hold life peerages)ydoethur said:
Genuine question, how many hereditary peers are there currently in the Commons? I know of at least one. Not that May would need to fear by-elections of course...RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Edit: I'm an idiot.
I think there is only one... Viscount Thurso.0 -
The fact that many are self sustaining doesn't mean that we should guarantee to keep the ones who aren't.RobD said:
I know there are stats showing immigrants pay more in tax than they claim in welfare. I suspect the same is true for EU immigrants.chestnut said:
There is no value in guaranteeing the right to remain of the 16hr a week chicken shop workers who are pulling in tens of thousands a year in benefits.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?
I'm not even sure that my local Romanian Big Issue Seller is indispensible.0 -
A guarantee for anyone who has a job above a certain modest income (perhaps the same as the income spousal income threshold) unilaterally would be reasonable. It would give status to our EU Docs and Nurses, while not establishing rights for Big Issue sellers. Britain would only gain.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
Even as someone getting ever "softer" on Brexit, I agree with this. May has the right stance on EU migrants IMO: make clear that she wants those settled here already to stay, but on the condition that British expats on the Continent get the same treatment.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?
The Lords would be better off focussing on getting a clause which locks the government in to needing parliamentary approval for any Brexit "deal", preferably with the condition that Britain's exit won't take effect unless and until a deal's been approved, even if that means suspending or temporarily revoking Article 50.0 -
Well then, let us start from the highlands of correctness by doing the right thing and showing Johnny Foreigner how it should be doneMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, I do try to avoid firing both crossbows and bows in my books.
Incidentally, if anyone would like a sort of Flashman meets Discworld meets Blackadder fantasy-comedy nonsense, do try The Adventures of Sir Edric. Hoping to get the second book out this year.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK/
Mrs C, May was willing to do an early reciprocal deal. The EU declined.
0 -
John Thurso lost his seat in the Commons in 2015. He's back in the Lords now.RobD said:
92 at present (not counting those that also hold life peerages)ydoethur said:
Genuine question, how many hereditary peers are there currently in the Commons? I know of at least one. Not that May would need to fear by-elections of course...RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Edit: I'm an idiot.
I think there is only one... Viscount Thurso.0 -
Quite. Take out a couple of hundred premier league footballers and a few CEOs, and the figures look rather different.Philip_Thompson said:
As a whole yes, not necessarily as individuals.RobD said:
I know there are stats showing immigrants pay more in tax than they claim in welfare. I suspect the same is true for EU immigrants.chestnut said:
There is no value in guaranteeing the right to remain of the 16hr a week chicken shop workers who are pulling in tens of thousands a year in benefits.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?
I'm not even sure that my local Romanian Big Issue Seller is indispensible.
No other country in the world pays benefits to recent immigrants, in most places you'll quickly find yourself deported if you're an unemployed foreigner.0 -
You may not have noticed but the SNP did rather well at the last general election. Regrettably the Highlands were cleared of nobility.RobD said:
92 at present (not counting those that also hold life peerages)ydoethur said:
Genuine question, how many hereditary peers are there currently in the Commons? I know of at least one. Not that May would need to fear by-elections of course...RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Edit: I'm an idiot.
I think there is only one... Viscount Thurso.0 -
Ultimately we should do the right thing by UK residents, whether the EU agrees to reciprocate or not. We should not be dragged down to their level.Sean_F said:
Negotiation should proceed on the basis of quid pro quo.Beverley_C said:
Agreed. If we look like the epitome of callousness it simply makes the EU hardliners' job easier. By extending an olive branch we make it easier for those in the EU hierarchy who want the minimum damage.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
Yes it should, but you can give yourself an edge in negotiation as well. We need to minimise the disadvantage which A.50 will place us in beacuse A.50 gives the EU the upper hand.Sean_F said:
Negotiation should proceed on the basis of quid pro quo.Beverley_C said:
Agreed. If we look like the epitome of callousness it simply makes the EU hardliners' job easier. By extending an olive branch we make it easier for those in the EU hierarchy who want the minimum damage.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
I believe they're biodegradable. Or a wasting asset, if you prefer. And then, of course, there's the PETA problem. But most hereditaries will have maintained a modest stoat farm behind the fox covert, just in case.RobD said:
Surely any self-respecting hereditary would already have their robes!Restharrow said:
Will no-one think of the stoats?RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
0 -
Mrs C, that argument does have shades of Blair and the rebate.0
-
People for the Ethical Treatment of Aristocrats?Restharrow said:
I believe they're biodegradable. Or a wasting asset, if you prefer. And then, of course, there's the PETA problem. But most hereditaries will have maintained a modest stoat farm behind the fox covert, just in case.RobD said:
Surely any self-respecting hereditary would already have their robes!Restharrow said:
Will no-one think of the stoats?RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
0 -
But what if that would be doing the wrong thing by our citizens?SandyRentool said:
Ultimately we should do the right thing by UK residents, whether the EU agrees to reciprocate or not. We should not be dragged down to their level.Sean_F said:
Negotiation should proceed on the basis of quid pro quo.Beverley_C said:
Agreed. If we look like the epitome of callousness it simply makes the EU hardliners' job easier. By extending an olive branch we make it easier for those in the EU hierarchy who want the minimum damage.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?
Basically feelings on this issue seem to come down to whether people are more likely to know people in category (a) or in category (b). Unsurprisingly the media is dominated by category (a) types.0 -
That sounds reasonable, although I can see Mrs May's point about wanting assurances about Brits living in the EU simultaneously. We should allow pretty much unlimited immigration of medical professionals, and bend over backwards to stop them leaving.foxinsoxuk said:
A guarantee for anyone who has a job above a certain modest income (perhaps the same as the income spousal income threshold) unilaterally would be reasonable. It would give status to our EU Docs and Nurses, while not establishing rights for Big Issue sellers. Britain would only gain.williamglenn said:
Guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens living and working in Britain is in Britain's interests, and sod what anyone else, including British ex-pats, thinks about it.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
What? That "Unseen Academicals" was Pratchett's worst book?Morris_Dancer said:Mrs C, that argument does have shades of Blair and the rebate.
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Thief of Time is very good, and I enjoyed The Truth. Could never quite get on with Mort.Beverley_C said:
For me, it would have to Thief of Time or Mort, although in the current climate I may re-read "Jingo" or "The Truth"ydoethur said:
JingoHurstLlama said:FPT
Pretty near the top of the tree, if not at the pinnacle. Pratchett was still at his creative best in those works, before he became formulaic. He was inventing a new world and could get in some biting social satire whilst keeping the comedy flowing.Fysics_Teacher said:
Where do you put "Guards, Guards"?
Lords and Ladies
Interesting Times
But of all Pratchett's work, Good Omens remains my favourite (OK, I know Neil Gaiman co-wrote it).
Small Gods was a complete thumbs-down second to only Unseen Academicals which was Pratchett's nadir IMO
As for Unseen Academicals, Snuff, I Shall Wear Midnight, Raising Steam and The Shepherd's Crown, I don't count them as Pratchetts because I'm 99% sure they were actually written by his secretary - the rather incompetent shoehorning in of favourite characters whose story arcs had come to a natural end long ago with which those novels abounded is all too typical of ghost writing and/or fan fiction.0 -
Thanks to the epic election with more candidates than voters, with a North Koreanesque result!ThreeQuidder said:
John Thurso lost his seat in the Commons in 2015. He's back in the Lords now.RobD said:
92 at present (not counting those that also hold life peerages)ydoethur said:
Genuine question, how many hereditary peers are there currently in the Commons? I know of at least one. Not that May would need to fear by-elections of course...RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Edit: I'm an idiot.
I think there is only one... Viscount Thurso.0 -
You think the HoL are merely indulging in a spot of Villager Gin Units (anagram to circumvent possible ban)?RobD said:
To be fair Parliament could change its mind later on, and repeal those provisions of the Act.Richard_Nabavi said:
I cannot begin to imagine how any sentient being could conceivably think it's a good idea for one side to guarantee the rights of the other side's citizens unconditionally. Even if our EU friends decide to chuck out British citizens? Even if there's no deal at all? What about healthcare costs? What about welfare payments?Philip_Thompson said:Such a stupid thing to defeat the government over. Parliament should be concerned with the rights of British citizens not just EU citizens. The government have already made clear they wish to respect the rights of EU citizens and it is simply conditional on a reciprocal agreement from Europe that they'll respect our citizens rights.
So what do the Lords hope to achieve here? If our citizens rights are respected then an agreement can be made quickly. If they're not then should Parliament encourage that?
What on earth are these peers smoking?0 -
The one I was thinking of was Michael Ancram, which was silly because he retired a long time ago as well. Thurso has lost his seat, Gummer has gone, Benn is not a peer. Are there in fact any in the Commons now?RobD said:
92 at present (not counting those that also hold life peerages)ydoethur said:
Genuine question, how many hereditary peers are there currently in the Commons? I know of at least one. Not that May would need to fear by-elections of course...RobD said:
She merely has to repeal the HoL Act to allow the hereditaries back inSquareRoot said:What is the breakdown of the house of lords. May surely cannot win on Tory votes alone?
Edit: I'm an idiot.
I think there is only one... Viscount Thurso.0 -
Mrs C, you're being deliberately naughty. If this behaviour continues there shall be no roast parsnips for you, young lady!0
