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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless LAB make a disastrous candidate choice then it’s hard to see them losing Gorton
Yesterday I Tweeted expressing the wish that the next by-election along would be somewhere that voted to stay in the EU last June 23rd. Sadly that has come about following the death of the long-standing Labour MP, Sir Gerald Kaufman, at the age of 86.
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Meanwhile
@bbclaurak: Major to stand by view Brexit is 'historic mistake', warns govt overplaying expectations, Brexiteers showing 'contempt' to those who ask Qs
@bbclaurak: Major will also warn May she'll have to 'face down' hardcore eurosceptics - will May face her own 'bastards' as he faced his ?
@bbclaurak: In Major's mild mannered way, it's a pretty critical speech from someone who wants to be a critical friend0 -
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@patrickwintour: In short former Conservative PM shows a good deal more backbone than the Labour front bench in resisting Brexit.0
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LDs were wiped out in Manchester City Council elections in 2014. http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live---local-elections-2014-71498010
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Oh dear. The undead are going to rise tonight and spend the evening moaning and tearing at Sir John Major's limbs.0
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Let's see...AlastairMeeks said:Oh dear. The undead are going to rise tonight and spend the evening moaning and tearing at Sir John Major's limbs.
@patrickwintour: Major: time to stop shouting down critics. Nothing "arrogant” or “brazen” or “elitist”, or “delusional” to express concern about Brexit.0 -
Just how disastrous a candidate would be needed? Outside of the reincarnation of Adolf Hitler, I don't know that one exists.0
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Works both ways, Major like Cameron was very vague about what remaining in the EU meant. It is a bit rich to accuse others showing contempt to those who ask questions.Scott_P said:Meanwhile
@bbclaurak: Major to stand by view Brexit is 'historic mistake', warns govt overplaying expectations, Brexiteers showing 'contempt' to those who ask Qs
@bbclaurak: Major will also warn May she'll have to 'face down' hardcore eurosceptics - will May face her own 'bastards' as he faced his ?
@bbclaurak: In Major's mild mannered way, it's a pretty critical speech from someone who wants to be a critical friend0 -
Apparently IDS is scheduled on Newsnight...AlastairMeeks said:Oh dear. The undead are going to rise tonight and spend the evening moaning and tearing at Sir John Major's limbs.
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Just from the headline, don't all governments mislead the public with 'rosy confidence'? It's called spinning.Scott_P said:
He is right though that there are elements, which the government seems to use as a distraction, who react with naked hostility to any questioning of strategy or any seeking oversight. That is partly because some of those asking are indeed people who would like to or are trying to prevent Brexit, but not all are, and questioning is important.0 -
On topic, if this isn't a safe hold for Labour, nowhere is. It would require the 12th biggest by-election swing ever.0
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@bbclaurak: Major also warns of cosying up to Trump - 'how many disagreements can there be before the closest of ties start to fray'?0
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Here is Labour's problem...
@Freedland: When a Tory former PM offers a critique of the Tory government more stirring and powerful than the Labour leader has ever managed twitter.com/tnewtondunn/st…0 -
Even Corbyn can't facilitate losing a 24k majority......0
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The eighth biggest by-election swing ever if the Lib Dems are to take it.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, if this isn't a safe hold for Labour, nowhere is. It would require the 12th biggest by-election swing ever.
But the Sandalistas should have a lot of fun.0 -
A quibble. Is it really such an odd shape? It is hardly Ribble Valley!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ribble Valley
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Has Sam Wheeler resigned from the shadow cabinet yet ?0
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Manchester Gorton looks like a shark to me.dixiedean said:A quibble. Is it really such an odd shape? It is hardly Ribble Valley!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ribble Valley0 -
Cinderella's lost slipper.AlastairMeeks said:
Manchester Gorton looks like a shark to me.dixiedean said:A quibble. Is it really such an odd shape? It is hardly Ribble Valley!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ribble Valley
Edit: Can see the shark now!0 -
Sounds like a challenge.
On Major: he may believe it's a mistake, but does he actually want to prevent it? If not, he needs to argue for what he'd see as an optimal departure. If so, he needs to explain how he squares that with democracy.
It would be legal for the result to be annulled by Parliament, but that would create political fireworks.0 -
Major is certainly a big beast, but as a well known EU remainer, isn't this a case of Dog Bites Man?Scott_P said:0 -
I've seen a lot of American congressional districts, I'm not sure we have any that compare in odd shapedness.dixiedean said:A quibble. Is it really such an odd shape? It is hardly Ribble Valley!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ribble Valley0 -
FPT: @Roger: "To violate someone by a compulsory test would be unacceptable and furthermore the social implications of getting the police involved in what is likely to be a closely knit religious family could be devastating. I'm afraid however much people think it's a crime that deserves punishment the best way of dealing with it is by an intense publicity campaign. "
Rubbish: when I was a child at school we automatically had health inspections by the school nurse which would have picked up FGM. A health check to detect whether a crime - a brutal crime - has been committed is not a violation.
The idea we shouldn't prosecute crimes because it might upset the perpetrators is utterly bizarre. And frankly gross: read up if you can on what is actually involved in cutting a girl, the pain involved at the time and the continuing pain for the rest of their lives, the pain involved in not being able to lose menstrual blood, for instance, and developing a cyst which has to be removed surgically and imagine that happening to young girls when they are tiny and throughout their teenage years and thereafter and never being able to enjoy sex.
It is an appalling crime. I don't give a fig for religious or cultural sensibilities. Let's call a spade a spade. It's barbaric and it should not be happening to British girls. Nor do I give two hoots about how close bloody knit the families are. Girls are being horribly maimed. Crimes are being committed. The answer is not some public information film, though that may be a part. A few prosecutions and children made wards of court pour encourager les autres would send a clear message about what can and cannot happen in our society.
We're not talking about advice on eating more fruit, for crying out loud.0 -
Whoops. Prepare for several hours of the PB Frothers to unleash their foaming spittle on Sir John Major in 3... 2... 1...0
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Surely the undead, in this context, are Blair and Major?AlastairMeeks said:Oh dear. The undead are going to rise tonight and spend the evening moaning and tearing at Sir John Major's limbs.
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Look at this blast from the past....
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/836252319977205760?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
And thumbs up at what Major's just said.0 -
The constituency could be a ballista... from a side-on view.0
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I am sure we can rely on you to rebut each one in your usual spellbinding way, personally I am off to watch some paint dry.Bojabob said:Whoops. Prepare for several hours of the PB Frothers to unleash their foaming spittle on Sir John Major in 3... 2... 1...
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I just don't think Major has any special insight any more. The world is very different from 1997. We can't fight the last war.isam said:
Surely the undead, in this context, are Blair and Major?AlastairMeeks said:Oh dear. The undead are going to rise tonight and spend the evening moaning and tearing at Sir John Major's limbs.
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@jackW might recall the Gorton By Election of 1967.
http://www.itnsource.com/shotlist//RTV/1967/10/27/BGY506230596/?v=1
Labour majority dropped to 557.0 -
Theresa May is going to experience an ERM-style political crisis on steroids when her Brexit negotiations run aground.0
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@AlsoIndigo I really like Dr Sarah Wollaston. She's been excellent whenever I've seen her on QT.0
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Plenty of political undead recently. I see Jezza's friends are busy telling everyone the reason they lost Copeland was because of Blair and Mandelson on the TV a couple of weeks ago. Its a view I guess.isam said:
Surely the undead, in this context, are Blair and Major?AlastairMeeks said:Oh dear. The undead are going to rise tonight and spend the evening moaning and tearing at Sir John Major's limbs.
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I have difficulty believing the Lib Dems can dig in to the muslim vote here, Labour with Stop-the-War Corbyn have that sewn up. The students will love Corbyn, this is Momentum central.
In essense this seat is like Stoke Central without the leavey/nationalist areas and more students and minorities.
So while this may be a heavily remain area with a nearby Lib stronghold, it is not natural Lib Dem territory.
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If the deniers of immigration problems have their way, the compulsory checks will begin in posh all girls schools in the home countiesCyclefree said:FPT: @Roger: "To violate someone by a compulsory test would be unacceptable and furthermore the social implications of getting the police involved in what is likely to be a closely knit religious family could be devastating. I'm afraid however much people think it's a crime that deserves punishment the best way of dealing with it is by an intense publicity campaign. "
Rubbish: when I was a child at school we automatically had health inspections by the school nurse which would have picked up FGM. A health check to detect whether a crime - a brutal crime - has been committed is not a violation.
The idea we shouldn't prosecute crimes because it might upset the perpetrators is utterly bizarre. And frankly gross: read up if you can on what is actually involved in cutting a girl, the pain involved at the time and the continuing pain for the rest of their lives, the pain involved in not being able to lose menstrual blood, for instance, and developing a cyst which has to be removed surgically and imagine that happening to young girls when they are tiny and throughout their teenage years and thereafter and never being able to enjoy sex.
It is an appalling crime. I don't give a fig for religious or cultural sensibilities. Let's call a spade a spade. It's barbaric and it should not be happening to British girls. Nor do I give two hoots about how close bloody knit the families are. Girls are being horribly maimed. Crimes are being committed. The answer is not some public information film, though that may be a part. A few prosecutions and children made wards of court pour encourager les autres would send a clear message about what can and cannot happen in our society.
We're not talking about advice on eating more fruit, for crying out loud.0 -
I wondered if Major would join the Blair Hesseltine axis against the spineless Brexiteers who seem to have no idea what they are supposed to be doing. Good for him!0
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Woe woe and thrice woe!williamglenn said:Theresa May is going to experience an ERM-style political crisis on steroids when her Brexit negotiations run aground.
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Shock horror - BBC reports Trump doing what he promised.
US President Donald Trump is seeking to boost defence spending by $54bn (£43bn) in his proposed budget plan for 2018, which is about a 9% increase.
The blueprint also calls for deep cuts elsewhere, including to foreign assistance and environmental budgets.
Mr Trump's plan leaves large welfare programmes such as Social Security and Medicare untouched.
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williamglenn, the cut out and keep versionwilliamglenn said:Theresa May is going to experience an ERM-style political crisis on steroids when her Brexit negotiations run aground.
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Assuming the by-election takes place on May 4th, do we think the Manchester mayoral election will lead to a higher than expected turnout?0
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This by-election is surely going to be a proper measure of where the Liberals are in national terms. A remain area, too. I expect them to go very hard indeed at this seat. Could be a huge upset there.0
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"...Instead of working harder to create fascinating stories though, lazy writers just resort to killing children to get us invested in their stories.
http://www.therebel.media/hey_hollywood_stop_killing_kids0 -
Last time Gorton returned a Conservative was 1931, though the result in 1959 was close for Labour maj of 269.0
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I think it is entirely fair of Major to ask some searching questions of the May government.
The only way Britain is going to get a worthwhile deal and make a success of Brexit is if it stops being deluded about what is achievable, in what time frame and how tough it will be. It may well be all worth it in the end or because of the benefits of not being in the EU but that does not mean that everything will be wonderful from the start. If May does not manage expectations sensibly she will come a cropper.
It also seems appropriate for Major to be saying this given that, arguably, the referendum was the final working out of the endless Parliamentary battles over Mastricht, which first introduced the concept of EU citizenship.0 -
Not sure they have got to the bottom of the problem yet
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kle4 said:
Just how disastrous a candidate would be needed? Outside of the reincarnation of Adolf Hitler, I don't know that one exists.
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I think it would be fair to say that the comments in the Telegraph are unsympathetic
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/27/sir-john-major-warns-theresa-may-hard-brexit-could-mean-cuts/0 -
As Mike says - it depends on who the Lab candidate is. No political deadbeats or time servers preferably nor Corbynistas. The main dfference this time of course the by-election follows a death of a well respected veteran MP rather than the sitting member upping sticks for a cushty number away from the political frayJason said:This by-election is surely going to be a proper measure of where the Liberals are in national terms. A remain area, too. I expect them to go very hard indeed at this seat. Could be a huge upset there.
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Children in general are very poorly done in fiction. Whiny, annoying burdens to the protagonists used as lazy sympathy fodder or appeal to a younger audience, rather than characters in their own right whom we can care about, instead killed or put in peril and expecting our societal attitude toward children to be enough to make us care, rather than making a good story or good characters.PlatoSaid said:"...Instead of working harder to create fascinating stories though, lazy writers just resort to killing children to get us invested in their stories.
http://www.therebel.media/hey_hollywood_stop_killing_kids0 -
It's stunning how so much in life is relative.The_Apocalypse said:Look at this blast from the past....
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/836252319977205760?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
And thumbs up at what Major's just said.
Compared to the deranged clot we have in the White House currently, Dubya looks like a serious statesman.0 -
What remain really need is a big beast Brexit supporter to come out and say it's all a mistake, the EU is grand, and we should stay in. The likes of Blair, Major, Mandelson and Helseltine coming out and denouncing it just doesn't cut the mustard. Yesterday's men, clinging to yesterday's view of the EU won't change anybody's mind.
We'll get the usual suspects pouring scorn on Major, and the usual suspects telling us that Major is a sage, and a top bloke, but it's just people agreeing with people who share their world view, or disagreeing with someone who doesn't. No point getting wound up by either stance.0 -
More on those 'plotters' using 'an exceptionally well resourced dark arts operation' to 'destroy Jeremy Corbyn'.
Recently uncovered evidence suggests they may have been voters defying Storm Doris by journeying to polling stations in Copeland.0 -
FPT:
+1,000,000Cyclefree said:
Rubbish: when I was a child at school we automatically had health inspections by the school nurse which would have picked up FGM. A health check to detect whether a crime - a brutal crime - has been committed is not a violation.
The idea we shouldn't prosecute crimes because it might upset the perpetrators is utterly bizarre. And frankly gross: read up if you can on what is actually involved in cutting a girl, the pain involved at the time and the continuing pain for the rest of their lives, the pain involved in not being able to lose menstrual blood, for instance, and developing a cyst which has to be removed surgically and imagine that happening to young girls when they are tiny and throughout their teenage years and thereafter and never being able to enjoy sex.
It is an appalling crime. I don't give a fig for religious or cultural sensibilities. Let's call a spade a spade. It's barbaric and it should not be happening to British girls. Nor do I give two hoots about how close bloody knit the families are. Girls are being horribly maimed. Crimes are being committed. The answer is not some public information film, though that may be a part. A few prosecutions and children made wards of court pour encourager les autres would send a clear message about what can and cannot happen in our society.
FGM is barbaric.
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Mr. Bojabob, it could be far was* than Trump.
Flavius Phocas or Antoninus Caracalla he is not.
Edited extra bit: *worse.0 -
I agree with him entirely in that bit. There will be people seeking to undermine or prevent Brexit through underhand means because they cannot democratically manage it, but those pursuing the democratic path to Brexit are not helped by people not feeling able to express concern or offer their thoughts, even critical ones. I am sure all reasonable people would agree, and so even if they think Major a deluded has been about the worthiness of Brexit or what needs to happen now, we can overcome his points rather than think he and those like him should shut up.Scott_P said:0 -
That was 1955 . The majority increased to 857 in 1959. The November 1967 by election saw Labour's majority slashed to 508. Very different boundaries though.dr_spyn said:Last time Gorton returned a Conservative was 1931, though the result in 1959 was close for Labour maj of 269.
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Is John Major still a thing?0
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What about circumcision?isam said:If the deniers of immigration problems have their way, the compulsory checks will begin in posh all girls schools in the home counties
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justin124 said:
That was 1955 . The majority increased to 857 in 1959. The November 1967 by election saw Labour's majority slashed to 508. Very different boundaries though.dr_spyn said:Last time Gorton returned a Conservative was 1931, though the result in 1959 was close for Labour maj of 269.
Misread date.justin124 said:
That was 1955 . The majority increased to 857 in 1959. The November 1967 by election saw Labour's majority slashed to 508. Very different boundaries though.dr_spyn said:Last time Gorton returned a Conservative was 1931, though the result in 1959 was close for Labour maj of 269.
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Is this new tactic from the refuseniks, of predicting criticism of someone making a pro EU statement, a kind of defence so as to stop it, lest the would be critics lose a point for proving them right?
Surely no one would be so petty!0 -
Snip0
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Mike: 21 councillor at Gorton in 2004, 2016 nil and by my maths the local vote across the constituency was:-
Labour 16, 867
Green 3,497
Lib Dem 1,314 or 5%
Con 1,306
UKIP 1,109 (only stood in 2 of the 7 wards)
Evidence of recent local council elections mostly shows a collapse of the Green vote the Lib Dems benefitting but will this happen here. ( Clegg and his coalition have a lot to answer for).
Presumably will be fought the same day as the locals in May, prevents the full Lib Dem mobilisation, they have other fish to fry. So should be a solid Labour result. The Lib Dems will need to push the history of the seat particuarly 2001, 5 and 10.0 -
Funny, I thought much the same about Brown and Major. It came as a shock to me as someone who was decidedly unimpressed by Major when he had the job ....Bojabob said:Compared to the deranged clot we have in the White House currently, Dubya looks like a serious statesman.
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Yesterday I spent some time asking Leavers to contemplate why Remainers weren't changing their minds. Responses divided between:kle4 said:
I agree with him entirely in that bit. There will be people seeking to undermine or prevent Brexit through underhand means because they cannot democratically manage it, but those pursuing the democratic path to Brexit are not helped by people not feeling able to express concern or offer their thoughts, even critical ones. I am sure all reasonable people would agree, and so even if they think Major a deluded has been about the worthiness of Brexit or what needs to happen now, we can overcome his points rather than think he and those like him should shut up.Scott_P said:
1) But we keep telling you that you're wrong, what more can we do?
2) We don't care what Remainers think, we've won our referendum and that's that.
3) Remainers have the temerity not to change their minds and it's their fault.
The brittle way in which Leavers respond to every concern expressed makes it most unlikely that the country will pull together behind Brexit. If Britain remains divided, Brexit will almost inevitably fail. Yet Leavers show no interest in addressing this.
Most odd.0 -
But students like Corbyn don't they? So selecting a corbynista would not overly harm them. And the one positive with Corbyn we know is he doesn't seem to interfere in these selections, so nobody parachuting in either. The LDs will surely be aiming to regain second and nothing more no matter who is selected.RobC said:
As Mike says - it depends on who the Lab candidate is. No political deadbeats or time servers preferably nor Corbynistas. The main dfference this time of course the by-election follows a death of a well respected veteran MP rather than the sitting member upping sticks for a cushty number away from the political frayJason said:This by-election is surely going to be a proper measure of where the Liberals are in national terms. A remain area, too. I expect them to go very hard indeed at this seat. Could be a huge upset there.
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Has Major become a bastard?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Given that Gorton is a university seat it will be interesting to see whether academic resentment against the Lib Dems has abated. Of course entirely different cohorts of students will be voting (or not voting) than those so upset by the LD tuition fee saga earlier this decade.0
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Mr. D, "snip"
When Mrs C asked Mr. Isam about circumcision I don't think she was asking for volunteers...0 -
He's well and truly gone off the reservation. I expect he's enjoying himself enormously tonight.FF43 said:
Has Major become a bastard?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Indeed many Leavers seem to be of the view that "we won" = "we are right" = "dissent must be silenced".AlastairMeeks said:
Yesterday I spent some time asking Leavers to contemplate why Remainers weren't changing their minds. Responses divided between:kle4 said:
I agree with him entirely in that bit. There will be people seeking to undermine or prevent Brexit through underhand means because they cannot democratically manage it, but those pursuing the democratic path to Brexit are not helped by people not feeling able to express concern or offer their thoughts, even critical ones. I am sure all reasonable people would agree, and so even if they think Major a deluded has been about the worthiness of Brexit or what needs to happen now, we can overcome his points rather than think he and those like him should shut up.Scott_P said:
1) But we keep telling you that you're wrong, what more can we do?
2) We don't care what Remainers think, we've won our referendum and that's that.
3) Remainers have the temerity not to change their minds and it's their fault.
The brittle way in which Leavers respond to every concern expressed makes it most unlikely that the country will pull together behind Brexit. If Britain remains divided, Brexit will almost inevitably fail. Yet Leavers show no interest in addressing this.
Most odd.
Those attitudes are part of the problem, not part of the solution.0 -
I think Trump is honestly making George W Bush's time as President look a whole lot better. I was a kid when he was President, but my parents anti-Bush views did influence me. I am a liberal leftie on top of that, so even when I got my own mind I never really liked Bush. But I never hated him (I did hate Cheney and Rumsfield though).Bojabob said:
It's stunning how so much in life is relative.The_Apocalypse said:Look at this blast from the past....
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/836252319977205760?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
And thumbs up at what Major's just said.
Compared to the deranged clot we have in the White House currently, Dubya looks like a serious statesman.
On CNN they've been talking about Trump's realigning of American Conservatism. On issues such as immigration, the GOP base has had these kinds of beliefs for some time now. Really, it's the whole 'economic nationalism' thing where the real realigning has gone on. I find it hard to believe you can be a free-market, Reagan Conservative one day and subscribe to Bannon economics the next. I think a lot of this is about power: Trump and his team have given the GOP power, and for the sake of power many Conservatives are willing to drop long-standing beliefs. The other extreme, of course, is the British Left: who are so obsessed with ideological purity that they are willing to make themselves unelectable.0 -
Perhaps we need to have two new categories:-
1. Those who want to remain in the EU, are appalled at the result of the referendum and would like to see the decision reversed in some way. Their most articulate spokesman so far is one T Blair.
2. Those who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU but are concerned that the consequences and the trade-offs needed are poorly understood and/or communicated by the government and that it is altogether too Panglossian in its approach to how Brexit will be implemented.
Criticisms from the group in 2 are worth listening to because they may help the government make better decisions.
Maybe we should have a competition to name these groups. Just to make it easier in PB threads.
Group 1 could be called The Millers (after Ms Gina Miller). The Blairites has been taken.
What should Group 2 be called?0 -
'Opportunities are raised way beyond any reality'. He's right of course.....and it's curious.
...This morning like most mornings the Telegraph wrote a Brexit piece based on a report by PwC as they all are. In common with all the others they paint a Lalaland (if you'll forgive the analogy) of a magical future.
Something about this daily drip of good Brexit news based on insight from PwC just doesn't ring true. It sounds like the work of a PR department. Here's this mornings
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/27/uk-rises-become-third-important-country-company-growth-prospects/0 -
They have more cause to be upset than their predecessors though. They're actually having to pay the higher fees.RobC said:Given that Gorton is a university seat it will be interesting whether academic resentment against the Lib Dems has abated. Of course an entirely different cohorts of students will be voting (or not voting) than those so upset by the LD tuition fee saga earlier this decade.
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It's perfectly valid, we all know perfectly well anyone making any kind of statement will get attacked, particularly with volatile subjects like this, and preparing your defence in advance seems sensible. I don't think there is any merit in pretending people making such statements would not face massive hostility and so may seek to mentally predict the avenues of attack and counter them. We see this all the time in politics no matter the subject 'my opponents will say x, but in fact the truth is y' sort of thing, it's unremarkable.isam said:Is this new tactic from the refuseniks, of predicting criticism of someone making a pro EU statement, a kind of defence so as to stop it, lest the would be critics lose a point for proving them right?
Will Theresa May have to face down her own bastards, asks @bbclaurak? John Major: "You may say that - I couldn't possibly comment".
All PMs have their bastards.0 -
Sensible?Cyclefree said:Perhaps we need to have two new categories:-
1. Those who want to remain in the EU, are appalled at the result of the referendum and would like to see the decision reversed in some way. Their most articulate spokesman so far is one T Blair.
2. Those who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU but are concerned that the consequences and the trade-offs needed are poorly understood and/or communicated by the government and that it is altogether too Panglossian in its approach to how Brexit will be implemented.
Criticisms from the group in 2 are worth listening to because they may help the government make better decisions.
Maybe we should have a competition to name these groups. Just to make it easier in PB threads.
Group 1 could be called The Millers (after Ms Gina Miller). The Blairites has been taken.
What should Group 2 be called?0 -
I wish there were more Conservatives like Sir John Major.williamglenn said:Theresa May is going to experience an ERM-style political crisis on steroids when her Brexit negotiations run aground.
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Yes, I think a Corbynista would be a good choice in that seat, especially with the Greens second. The idea that LibDems do well with students is a bit unproven though I expect they'll give it a good go.kle4 said:
But students like Corbyn don't they? So selecting a corbynista would not overly harm them. And the one positive with Corbyn we know is he doesn't seem to interfere in these selections, so nobody parachuting in either. The LDs will surely be aiming to regain second and nothing more no matter who is selected.RobC said:
As Mike says - it depends on who the Lab candidate is. No political deadbeats or time servers preferably nor Corbynistas. The main dfference this time of course the by-election follows a death of a well respected veteran MP rather than the sitting member upping sticks for a cushty number away from the political frayJason said:This by-election is surely going to be a proper measure of where the Liberals are in national terms. A remain area, too. I expect them to go very hard indeed at this seat. Could be a huge upset there.
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Beverley_C said:
Funny, I thought much the same about Brown and Major. It came as a shock to me as someone who was decidedly unimpressed by Major when he had the job ....Bojabob said:Compared to the deranged clot we have in the White House currently, Dubya looks like a serious statesman.
History will judge Sir John Major more kindly than his own time. I was never a fan of his, but nevertheless one has to respect his upturning of political gravity by winning in 1992, then stoically holding for half a decade in the face of vehement attacks from the europhobic right of his own party.0 -
I remember it well - the same night that Winnie Ewing won Hamilton for the SNP. The Tories also gained Leicester SW. This was a few days before the 1967 Devaluation!dr_spyn said:@jackW might recall the Gorton By Election of 1967.
http://www.itnsource.com/shotlist//RTV/1967/10/27/BGY506230596/?v=1
Labour majority dropped to 557.0 -
There are other groups. One of the largest, one in which I would place myself is:Cyclefree said:Perhaps we need to have two new categories:-
1. Those who want to remain in the EU, are appalled at the result of the referendum and would like to see the decision reversed in some way. Their most articulate spokesman so far is one T Blair.
2. Those who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU but are concerned that the consequences and the trade-offs needed are poorly understood and/or communicated by the government and that it is altogether too Panglossian in its approach to how Brexit will be implemented.
Criticisms from the group in 2 are worth listening to because they may help the government make better decisions.
Maybe we should have a competition to name these groups. Just to make it easier in PB threads.
Group 1 could be called The Millers (after Ms Gina Miller). The Blairites has been taken.
What should Group 2 be called?
Those who are appalled at the result of the referendum, who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU, who see the whole Brexit project heading for the rocks, with no real prospect of avoiding very real pain. All that can be done is to prepare the first aid kit for the inevitable breaking of bones that is coming. From the sounds of it, Sir John is in exactly this category.
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Reasonable?Cyclefree said:Perhaps we need to have two new categories:-
1. Those who want to remain in the EU, are appalled at the result of the referendum and would like to see the decision reversed in some way. Their most articulate spokesman so far is one T Blair.
2. Those who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU but are concerned that the consequences and the trade-offs needed are poorly understood and/or communicated by the government and that it is altogether too Panglossian in its approach to how Brexit will be implemented.
Criticisms from the group in 2 are worth listening to because they may help the government make better decisions.
Maybe we should have a competition to name these groups. Just to make it easier in PB threads.
Group 1 could be called The Millers (after Ms Gina Miller). The Blairites has been taken.
What should Group 2 be called?0 -
Miss Cyclefree, the Merchants (we could stick with a Chaucer theme).0
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Your own, as you have admitted deliberately provocative, attitude may not have encouraged a thoughtful response in fairness, but I think it is fair to say too many respond too negatively and hostilely to any expressed concern.AlastairMeeks said:
Yesterday I spent some time asking Leavers to contemplate why Remainers weren't changing their minds. Responses divided between:kle4 said:
I agree with him entirely in that bit. There will be people seeking to undermine or prevent Brexit through underhand means because they cannot democratically manage it, but those pursuing the democratic path to Brexit are not helped by people not feeling able to express concern or offer their thoughts, even critical ones. I am sure all reasonable people would agree, and so even if they think Major a deluded has been about the worthiness of Brexit or what needs to happen now, we can overcome his points rather than think he and those like him should shut up.Scott_P said:
1) But we keep telling you that you're wrong, what more can we do?
2) We don't care what Remainers think, we've won our referendum and that's that.
3) Remainers have the temerity not to change their minds and it's their fault.
The brittle way in which Leavers respond to every concern expressed makes it most unlikely that the country will pull together behind Brexit. If Britain remains divided, Brexit will almost inevitably fail. Yet Leavers show no interest in addressing this.
Most odd.
Some remainers are clearly, I would argue, not interested in being reached out to, which hardly helps heal division, but the greater burden would need to fall on we the victors I think.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. D, "snip"
When Mrs C asked Mr. Isam about circumcision I don't think she was asking for volunteers...
Whilst male circumcision is not as life destroying as FGM, I cannot think of any reason to inflict it on a healthy baby boy and sometimes it goes horribly wrong.
Basically cutting bits off your kids for purely cultural reasons should be outlawed.
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PragmatistsCyclefree said:Perhaps we need to have two new categories:-
1. Those who want to remain in the EU, are appalled at the result of the referendum and would like to see the decision reversed in some way. Their most articulate spokesman so far is one T Blair.
2. Those who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU but are concerned that the consequences and the trade-offs needed are poorly understood and/or communicated by the government and that it is altogether too Panglossian in its approach to how Brexit will be implemented.
Criticisms from the group in 2 are worth listening to because they may help the government make better decisions.
Maybe we should have a competition to name these groups. Just to make it easier in PB threads.
Group 1 could be called The Millers (after Ms Gina Miller). The Blairites has been taken.
What should Group 2 be called?0 -
Mrs C, one is glad one is intact.0
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Have to say I have seen precious little evidence of reaching out (and it's the Government, rather than PB that I have in mind here).kle4 said:
Your own, as you have admitted deliberately provocative, attitude may not have encouraged a thoughtful response in fairness, but I think it is fair to say too many respond too negatively and hostilely to any expressed concern.AlastairMeeks said:
Yesterday I spent some time asking Leavers to contemplate why Remainers weren't changing their minds. Responses divided between:kle4 said:
I agree with him entirely in that bit. There will be people seeking to undermine or prevent Brexit through underhand means because they cannot democratically manage it, but those pursuing the democratic path to Brexit are not helped by people not feeling able to express concern or offer their thoughts, even critical ones. I am sure all reasonable people would agree, and so even if they think Major a deluded has been about the worthiness of Brexit or what needs to happen now, we can overcome his points rather than think he and those like him should shut up.Scott_P said:
1) But we keep telling you that you're wrong, what more can we do?
2) We don't care what Remainers think, we've won our referendum and that's that.
3) Remainers have the temerity not to change their minds and it's their fault.
The brittle way in which Leavers respond to every concern expressed makes it most unlikely that the country will pull together behind Brexit. If Britain remains divided, Brexit will almost inevitably fail. Yet Leavers show no interest in addressing this.
Most odd.
Some remainers are clearly, I would argue, not interested in being reached out to, which hardly helps heal division, but the greater burden would need to fall on we the victors I think.0 -
Major will most likely go down in history as a better PM than both Blair and Brown. Blair had real potential to be a great PM but messed it up badly. Brown was always going to be a total disaster. Although he looks like a colossus when compared with most of what the Labour party is offering up today in terms of political talent.Bojabob said:Beverley_C said:
Funny, I thought much the same about Brown and Major. It came as a shock to me as someone who was decidedly unimpressed by Major when he had the job ....Bojabob said:Compared to the deranged clot we have in the White House currently, Dubya looks like a serious statesman.
History will judge Sir John Major more kindly than his own time. I was never a fan of his, but nevertheless one has to respect his upturning of political gravity by winning in 1992, then stoically holding for half a decade in the face of vehement attacks from the europhobic right of his own party.0 -
A capital idea. The nervous nellies?Cyclefree said:Perhaps we need to have two new categories:-
1. Those who want to remain in the EU, are appalled at the result of the referendum and would like to see the decision reversed in some way. Their most articulate spokesman so far is one T Blair.
2. Those who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU but are concerned that the consequences and the trade-offs needed are poorly understood and/or communicated by the government and that it is altogether too Panglossian in its approach to how Brexit will be implemented.
Criticisms from the group in 2 are worth listening to because they may help the government make better decisions.
Maybe we should have a competition to name these groups. Just to make it easier in PB threads.
Group 1 could be called The Millers (after Ms Gina Miller). The Blairites has been taken.
What should Group 2 be called?0 -
Evening all.
Going to go out on a limb here, but even Corbyn couldn’t cockup badly enough to lose Gorton
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