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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unless LAB make a disastrous candidate choice then it’s hard to see them losing Gorton
Yesterday I Tweeted expressing the wish that the next by-election along would be somewhere that voted to stay in the EU last June 23rd. Sadly that has come about following the death of the long-standing Labour MP, Sir Gerald Kaufman, at the age of 86.
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@bbclaurak: Major to stand by view Brexit is 'historic mistake', warns govt overplaying expectations, Brexiteers showing 'contempt' to those who ask Qs
@bbclaurak: Major will also warn May she'll have to 'face down' hardcore eurosceptics - will May face her own 'bastards' as he faced his ?
@bbclaurak: In Major's mild mannered way, it's a pretty critical speech from someone who wants to be a critical friend
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK-TDfempwY
@patrickwintour: Major: time to stop shouting down critics. Nothing "arrogant” or “brazen” or “elitist”, or “delusional” to express concern about Brexit.
He is right though that there are elements, which the government seems to use as a distraction, who react with naked hostility to any questioning of strategy or any seeking oversight. That is partly because some of those asking are indeed people who would like to or are trying to prevent Brexit, but not all are, and questioning is important.
@Freedland: When a Tory former PM offers a critique of the Tory government more stirring and powerful than the Labour leader has ever managed twitter.com/tnewtondunn/st…
But the Sandalistas should have a lot of fun.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ribble Valley
Edit: Can see the shark now!
On Major: he may believe it's a mistake, but does he actually want to prevent it? If not, he needs to argue for what he'd see as an optimal departure. If so, he needs to explain how he squares that with democracy.
It would be legal for the result to be annulled by Parliament, but that would create political fireworks.
Rubbish: when I was a child at school we automatically had health inspections by the school nurse which would have picked up FGM. A health check to detect whether a crime - a brutal crime - has been committed is not a violation.
The idea we shouldn't prosecute crimes because it might upset the perpetrators is utterly bizarre. And frankly gross: read up if you can on what is actually involved in cutting a girl, the pain involved at the time and the continuing pain for the rest of their lives, the pain involved in not being able to lose menstrual blood, for instance, and developing a cyst which has to be removed surgically and imagine that happening to young girls when they are tiny and throughout their teenage years and thereafter and never being able to enjoy sex.
It is an appalling crime. I don't give a fig for religious or cultural sensibilities. Let's call a spade a spade. It's barbaric and it should not be happening to British girls. Nor do I give two hoots about how close bloody knit the families are. Girls are being horribly maimed. Crimes are being committed. The answer is not some public information film, though that may be a part. A few prosecutions and children made wards of court pour encourager les autres would send a clear message about what can and cannot happen in our society.
We're not talking about advice on eating more fruit, for crying out loud.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/836252319977205760?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
And thumbs up at what Major's just said.
http://www.itnsource.com/shotlist//RTV/1967/10/27/BGY506230596/?v=1
Labour majority dropped to 557.
In essense this seat is like Stoke Central without the leavey/nationalist areas and more students and minorities.
So while this may be a heavily remain area with a nearby Lib stronghold, it is not natural Lib Dem territory.
US President Donald Trump is seeking to boost defence spending by $54bn (£43bn) in his proposed budget plan for 2018, which is about a 9% increase.
The blueprint also calls for deep cuts elsewhere, including to foreign assistance and environmental budgets.
Mr Trump's plan leaves large welfare programmes such as Social Security and Medicare untouched.
http://www.therebel.media/hey_hollywood_stop_killing_kids
The only way Britain is going to get a worthwhile deal and make a success of Brexit is if it stops being deluded about what is achievable, in what time frame and how tough it will be. It may well be all worth it in the end or because of the benefits of not being in the EU but that does not mean that everything will be wonderful from the start. If May does not manage expectations sensibly she will come a cropper.
It also seems appropriate for Major to be saying this given that, arguably, the referendum was the final working out of the endless Parliamentary battles over Mastricht, which first introduced the concept of EU citizenship.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/27/sir-john-major-warns-theresa-may-hard-brexit-could-mean-cuts/
Compared to the deranged clot we have in the White House currently, Dubya looks like a serious statesman.
We'll get the usual suspects pouring scorn on Major, and the usual suspects telling us that Major is a sage, and a top bloke, but it's just people agreeing with people who share their world view, or disagreeing with someone who doesn't. No point getting wound up by either stance.
Recently uncovered evidence suggests they may have been voters defying Storm Doris by journeying to polling stations in Copeland.
FGM is barbaric.
Flavius Phocas or Antoninus Caracalla he is not.
Edited extra bit: *worse.
Surely no one would be so petty!
Labour 16, 867
Green 3,497
Lib Dem 1,314 or 5%
Con 1,306
UKIP 1,109 (only stood in 2 of the 7 wards)
Evidence of recent local council elections mostly shows a collapse of the Green vote the Lib Dems benefitting but will this happen here. ( Clegg and his coalition have a lot to answer for).
Presumably will be fought the same day as the locals in May, prevents the full Lib Dem mobilisation, they have other fish to fry. So should be a solid Labour result. The Lib Dems will need to push the history of the seat particuarly 2001, 5 and 10.
1) But we keep telling you that you're wrong, what more can we do?
2) We don't care what Remainers think, we've won our referendum and that's that.
3) Remainers have the temerity not to change their minds and it's their fault.
The brittle way in which Leavers respond to every concern expressed makes it most unlikely that the country will pull together behind Brexit. If Britain remains divided, Brexit will almost inevitably fail. Yet Leavers show no interest in addressing this.
Most odd.
When Mrs C asked Mr. Isam about circumcision I don't think she was asking for volunteers...
Those attitudes are part of the problem, not part of the solution.
On CNN they've been talking about Trump's realigning of American Conservatism. On issues such as immigration, the GOP base has had these kinds of beliefs for some time now. Really, it's the whole 'economic nationalism' thing where the real realigning has gone on. I find it hard to believe you can be a free-market, Reagan Conservative one day and subscribe to Bannon economics the next. I think a lot of this is about power: Trump and his team have given the GOP power, and for the sake of power many Conservatives are willing to drop long-standing beliefs. The other extreme, of course, is the British Left: who are so obsessed with ideological purity that they are willing to make themselves unelectable.
1. Those who want to remain in the EU, are appalled at the result of the referendum and would like to see the decision reversed in some way. Their most articulate spokesman so far is one T Blair.
2. Those who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU but are concerned that the consequences and the trade-offs needed are poorly understood and/or communicated by the government and that it is altogether too Panglossian in its approach to how Brexit will be implemented.
Criticisms from the group in 2 are worth listening to because they may help the government make better decisions.
Maybe we should have a competition to name these groups. Just to make it easier in PB threads.
Group 1 could be called The Millers (after Ms Gina Miller). The Blairites has been taken.
What should Group 2 be called?
...This morning like most mornings the Telegraph wrote a Brexit piece based on a report by PwC as they all are. In common with all the others they paint a Lalaland (if you'll forgive the analogy) of a magical future.
Something about this daily drip of good Brexit news based on insight from PwC just doesn't ring true. It sounds like the work of a PR department. Here's this mornings
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/27/uk-rises-become-third-important-country-company-growth-prospects/
Will Theresa May have to face down her own bastards, asks @bbclaurak? John Major: "You may say that - I couldn't possibly comment".
All PMs have their bastards.
History will judge Sir John Major more kindly than his own time. I was never a fan of his, but nevertheless one has to respect his upturning of political gravity by winning in 1992, then stoically holding for half a decade in the face of vehement attacks from the europhobic right of his own party.
Those who are appalled at the result of the referendum, who accept that Britain will be leaving the EU, who see the whole Brexit project heading for the rocks, with no real prospect of avoiding very real pain. All that can be done is to prepare the first aid kit for the inevitable breaking of bones that is coming. From the sounds of it, Sir John is in exactly this category.
Some remainers are clearly, I would argue, not interested in being reached out to, which hardly helps heal division, but the greater burden would need to fall on we the victors I think.
Whilst male circumcision is not as life destroying as FGM, I cannot think of any reason to inflict it on a healthy baby boy and sometimes it goes horribly wrong.
Basically cutting bits off your kids for purely cultural reasons should be outlawed.
Going to go out on a limb here, but even Corbyn couldn’t cockup badly enough to lose Gorton