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JackW said:

Go Jezza go ....

Stupid DiscussionID is required.....

I was robbed, robbed I tell you!

JackW said:

And the winner of the New Thread Oscar is .....

Pause for dramatic effect :

"RobD"

Yes, I just read about that. LOL

I think that'll be the last time the Oscars are hosted at Auchentennach Castle

You could not Trump it when it came to announcing the Oscar for best movie... Over to the fake news department at the White House for verification of which movie won the oscar...

I claim the real first, after the stewards enquiry and double checking that the correct envelope was read out.

Gerald Kaufman wasn't just the oldest current MP; he was the oldest serving MP since 1972 or 1964 (depending how old S. O. Davies was when he died in 1972 (85 as he claimed or 92 as he probably was)).

Ken Clarke becomes the new Father of the House.

JackW said:

Ken Clarke becomes the new Father of the House.

Dennis Skinner must be thinking, "come on, I just have to outlive Clarke and it'll be my turn."

SimonStClare said:

Morning all.

OMG, OMG, OMG – wrong film named best picture at Oscars…! - Gerald Kaufman. RIP.

And .... and @RobD missed a "First" ....

Truly a new day of shocks has dawned, has it not?!?!

Dixie said:

JohnLoony said:

Gerald Kaufman wasn't just the oldest current MP; he was the oldest serving MP since 1972 or 1964 (depending how old S. O. Davies was when he died in 1972 (85 as he claimed or 92 as he probably was)).

His seat is so safe, even Jezza can't lose it. I assume Labour will be 1/100. If Labour lost it, then yes, they're screwed.

Something tells me that Labour party activists will still be ordered to pile into this seat and money will no object within campaign limits when it comes to shoring up the core vote in this seat.

Gorton is quite a big test for the Liberal Democrats.

McDonnell: "The coup plotters are willing to sacrifice the Party at elections just to topple Jeremy and prevent a socialist leading the Party. It is more important to them that they regain control of the Party than it is to win elections."

Pot, Kettle!

Apparently they have two sets of envelopes at the Oscars. What a bunch of muppets.

tlg86 said:

Apparently they have two sets of envelopes at the Oscars. What a bunch of muppets.

It couldn't have happened to a more self-opinionated, self-serving deserving bunch.

On topic - those Farron numbers are awful. Right person as party leader: Jeremy Corbyn 24%, Tim Farron 25%. He is only saved because so many people don't know who he is still. Which is damning in its own right.

I expect a whole series of threads with observations like "The above numbers clearly show that Tim Farron is part of the problem....The solution is obvious. The LibDems need new leadership. Whether it will get it (and when) is anybody’s guess."

RobD said:

tlg86 said:

RobD said:

tlg86 said:

Apparently they have two sets of envelopes at the Oscars. What a bunch of muppets.

Do you know what the second set is supposedly for?

Back up apparently - as if someone's going to runoff with the originals!

Ah, so it was the backup from a previous prize they read out? Maybe next time they'll print the name of the category on the front of the envelope.

It seems so. The first story was that somehow Beatty had gotten the previous award (Best Actress), but Emma Stone says she had it the whole time.

I thought they printed the nominations on the outside of the envelope. I think I've heard a story that someone once didn't actually open the envelope and assumed the winner was the first name printed on the outside! Luckily, it was actually the winner. So it would be interesting to know how the nominations were read out in this case.

Perhaps it's the "Trump Effect":
Say one thing and mean whatever.

peter_from_putney said:

MarqueeMark said:

On topic - those Farron numbers are awful. Right person as party leader: Jeremy Corbyn 24%, Tim Farron 25%. He is only saved because so many people don't know who he is still. Which is damning in its own right.

I expect a whole series of threads with observations like "The above numbers clearly show that Tim Farron is part of the problem....The solution is obvious. The LibDems need new leadership. Whether it will get it (and when) is anybody’s guess."

It really shouldn't take that long .... they only have 8 (excl. Farron) to pick from.

Farron’s problem is, partly at least I suspect snobbery. He didn’t go to Oxbridge and therefore isn’t part of the PPE, and hangers on, circle.

He’s been getting a bad deal from the media ever since he refused a Government position under Clegg.

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic

What a totally futile exercise it has been this year attempting to turn a profit by betting on the Oscars.
Despite my having correctly picked the winner in 17 of the 24 categories, I still succeeded in showing a loss of 1.75 units or 7% (25 units invested with 23.25 units returned) on account of the miniscule odds available on the favourites which were as short as 1/20, most of which were clearly therefore foregone conclusions.
The only way to make any money is to find a gem of an outsider, as Roger succeeded in doing last year, or by identifying 3 or 4 winners at odds rather better than evens. An impossible task on this occasion.

Oh well, there's always next year!

Annoyingly, Emma Stone won best actress as well rather than Roger's tips.

Damn.

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

twitter.com/profanityswan/status/835922751256932352

I thought it was established she hadn't lived in Britain for 30 years?

She went back to look after her dying parents and until her deportation was caring for her husband.

What kind of nation have we become?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.qakEvYOgg#.pojejArOO

Yeah, that doesn't agree with what is stated here, that she was out of the UK between 1992 and 2013.

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singaporean-fighting-deportation-from-britain

As for which to believe... The Straits Times or Buzzfeed.. hmmm, that's a tough one.

Manchester Gorton voted nearly 2:1 Remain. This is a seat where the Lib Dems must be looking to make major progress.

Very good last thread by @stodge by the way, and now sadly a by-election coming up for Labour in what should be a very safe seat

GeoffM said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

twitter.com/profanityswan/status/835922751256932352

I thought it was established she hadn't lived in Britain for 30 years?

Here's the link from yesterday, out of the UK from 1992 to 2013 - http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singaporean-fighting-deportation-from-britain

Aargh! We established all of this yesterday painfully and at great length. It was like teeth being pulled last time but at least everyone eventually accepted the facts and moved on.

Now the second wave of banzai morons are running straight at the truth with bayonets fixed.

In the name of all that's holy can we just ignore him, please. It's one of the thicker ones this time.though That may or may not help.

Hey, at least I didn't mention the CNN video..

I'm sorry, I can't get too worked up about Ms Clennell. The Leave vote was a vote to be unpleasant to foreigners and to self-justify it as something else afterwards. Ms Clennell's deportation and the reaction to it by Leavers is entirely consistent with that.

On topic, Corbyn clearly must go - and sooner rather than later - but Labour need to do more than just change the leader if they don't just want to reascend to the giddy heights Ed Miliband achieved.

Tanks on the lawn:

Prime Minister Theresa May has urged voters across Scotland to use the upcoming local elections to express their opposition to Scottish independence.

Writing exclusively for Holyrood magazine ahead of the Scottish Conservative conference, the PM frames the local elections, held on 4 May, on constitutional grounds.

May also rejects SNP claims that Scotland’s vote to remain in the European Union has been ignored in Downing Street’s approach to Brexit negotiations, writing that “every voter had an equal say and the collective answer was final”.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/exclusive-theresa-may-urges-scots-use-local-elections-reject-independence

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

twitter.com/profanityswan/status/835922751256932352

I thought it was established she hadn't lived in Britain for 30 years?

She went back to look after her dying parents and until her deportation was caring for her husband.

What kind of nation have we become?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.qakEvYOgg#.pojejArOO

Yeah, that doesn't agree with what is stated here, that she was out of the UK between 1992 and 2013.

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singaporean-fighting-deportation-from-britain

As for which to believe... The Straits Times or Buzzfeed.. hmmm, that's a tough one.

She was in Singapore until 1999.

The article states

The couple lived apart for years until she was finally able to re-enter Britain in 2013, on the basis of making another application within the country. She stayed on even though her subsequent applications failed.

tlg86 said:

RobD said:

tlg86 said:

Apparently they have two sets of envelopes at the Oscars. What a bunch of muppets.

Do you know what the second set is supposedly for?

Back up apparently - as if someone's going to runoff with the originals!

I thought they had two adjudicators who collate the votes and fill in the envelopes separately, then double check with each other that they're all correct. One guy then hands the first set of envelopes out to the presenters with the awards, while the other keeps the backups in case they're needed.

But LOL that Hollywood managed to screw up the biggest award on their biggest night of the year!

DavidL said:

There was a 9.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour in Gorton in 2015. An astonishing result given the national trends. I don't think I have seen a bigger swing in favour of Labour at that election.

Of course it was results like this that made the Labour vote so much less efficient than it had been in the Blair landslides. Piling up votes where they did least good.

I think Corbyn exacerbates that tendency too. He does appeal to a hard core Labour supporter far more left wing that the country as a whole. Kieran's analysis shows that this is at the cost of repelling those whose support is needed to do well overall. If that is right then the current polling/electoral models probably understate the damage he would do in an election campaign.

I'd have thought Manchester Gorton (like Brighton, Cambridge, Bristol West, and left-wing inner London) is Corbynism ground zero.

If nothing else it should tell us about the measure of his current appeal in his heartlands.

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

twitter.com/profanityswan/status/835922751256932352

I thought it was established she hadn't lived in Britain for 30 years?

She went back to look after her dying parents and until her deportation was caring for her husband.

What kind of nation have we become?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.qakEvYOgg#.pojejArOO

A nation that pays far too much attention to buzzfeed, it would seem.

Individual immigration issues can be sad - but the rules are there for a reason. See last nighht's thread for far more even handed detail on this case.

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm sorry, I can't get too worked up about Ms Clennell. The Leave vote was a vote to be unpleasant to foreigners and to self-justify it as something else afterwards. Ms Clennell's deportation and the reaction to it by Leavers is entirely consistent with that.

it;s the way you tell them antifrank Carson

ThreeQuidder said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Manchester Gorton voted nearly 2:1 Remain. This is a seat where the Lib Dems must be looking to make major progress.

Any clues as to why their numbers tanked so heavily in 2015?

It's the student area of Manchester.

Thanks, and thanks @AlastairMeeks too.

Alanbrooke said:

And the winner of the Oscars is ......

Donald Trump


The Academy screw up saved us from 6 hours of thespian moaning and gave the Donald a clean break

The Russians orchestrated the cock up

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

RobD said:

tlg86 said:

Apparently they have two sets of envelopes at the Oscars. What a bunch of muppets.

Do you know what the second set is supposedly for?

Back up apparently - as if someone's going to runoff with the originals!

I thought they had two adjudicators who collate the votes and fill in the envelopes separately, then double check with each other that they're all correct. One guy then hands the first set of envelopes out to the presenters with the awards, while the other keeps the backups in case they're needed.

But LOL that Hollywood managed to screw up the biggest award on their biggest night of the year!

At least it disproves the old canard about the winners being tipped off in advance.

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

There was a 9.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour in Gorton in 2015. An astonishing result given the national trends. I don't think I have seen a bigger swing in favour of Labour at that election.

Of course it was results like this that made the Labour vote so much less efficient than it had been in the Blair landslides. Piling up votes where they did least good.

I think Corbyn exacerbates that tendency too. He does appeal to a hard core Labour supporter far more left wing that the country as a whole. Kieran's analysis shows that this is at the cost of repelling those whose support is needed to do well overall. If that is right then the current polling/electoral models probably understate the damage he would do in an election campaign.

I'd have thought Manchester Gorton (like Brighton, Cambridge, Bristol West, and left-wing inner London) is Corbynism ground zero.

If nothing else it should tell us about the measure of his current appeal in his heartlands.

Hmm...won't we get a really chronic turnout after a very low key campaign where most the parties are reluctant to spend much on a foregone conclusion? Labour will then blame an apparent fall in support of the loss of a very "popular" MP.

tlg86 said:

This is like the time Kimi Raikkonen was declared the winner of the 2003 Brazilian Grand Prix, but then had to hand it over to Giancarlo Fisichella the following week because the FIA had calculated correctly who was leading at the last complete lap before the race was red flagged.

Duckworth Lewis in F1?

Gerald Kaufman's political career had peaked, by the time he entered Parliament.

Mortimer said:

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

twitter.com/profanityswan/status/835922751256932352

I thought it was established she hadn't lived in Britain for 30 years?

She went back to look after her dying parents and until her deportation was caring for her husband.

What kind of nation have we become?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.qakEvYOgg#.pojejArOO

A nation that pays far too much attention to buzzfeed, it would seem.

Individual immigration issues can be sad - but the rules are there for a reason. See last nighht's thread for far more even handed detail on this case.

I dont think the full facts have been established on this case. Googling her and finding random stories on the internet is not the same as reading the home office files.
The basic point is that even though she has a family here, 2 generations, and is caring for her ill british husband she is still being deported and that is what most people find outrageous. But the rules are the rules.

fitalass said:

Dixie said:

JohnLoony said:

Gerald Kaufman wasn't just the oldest current MP; he was the oldest serving MP since 1972 or 1964 (depending how old S. O. Davies was when he died in 1972 (85 as he claimed or 92 as he probably was)).

His seat is so safe, even Jezza can't lose it. I assume Labour will be 1/100. If Labour lost it, then yes, they're screwed.

Something tells me that Labour party activists will still be ordered to pile into this seat and money will no object within campaign limits when it comes to shoring up the core vote in this seat.

Manchester is one of the strongest Labour membership bases outside London (it was an important factor in Oldham), especially among students (who are especially numerous in Gordon itself). It's the sort of seat where Corbyn is an asset, although I assume Kaufmann had a sizable personal vote. I suspect the main problem will be the Greens.

On topic, one has to be careful about this sort of poll, as people sometimes respond to hypotheticals whimsically. "Would you consider voting Labour?" will have a chunk of people who politely say they'll consider anything: the fact that over a third of these (37%) don't care who the leader is shows their lack of genuine interest at this point. On the face of it the figures show a Labour potential of 51%, but in reality I expect it's more likle 40%.

The fact that a fifth of current Labour voters would be less likely to vote Labour if Corbyn was replaced is interesting though again might or might not prove real - it depends partly on whether he stood down voluntarily (which would produce an "oh well, all the best" reaction) or was ousted (which I think would do real damage to the core vote).

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

There was a 9.2% swing from the Conservatives to Labour in Gorton in 2015. An astonishing result given the national trends. I don't think I have seen a bigger swing in favour of Labour at that election.

Of course it was results like this that made the Labour vote so much less efficient than it had been in the Blair landslides. Piling up votes where they did least good.

I think Corbyn exacerbates that tendency too. He does appeal to a hard core Labour supporter far more left wing that the country as a whole. Kieran's analysis shows that this is at the cost of repelling those whose support is needed to do well overall. If that is right then the current polling/electoral models probably understate the damage he would do in an election campaign.

I'd have thought Manchester Gorton (like Brighton, Cambridge, Bristol West, and left-wing inner London) is Corbynism ground zero.

If nothing else it should tell us about the measure of his current appeal in his heartlands.

Hmm...won't we get a really chronic turnout after a very low key campaign where most the parties are reluctant to spend much on a foregone conclusion? Labour will then blame an apparent fall in support of the loss of a very "popular" MP.

Perfect seat for a returning prince over the water, mind.

Whether of the Balls or Miliband variety....

nielh said:

Mortimer said:

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

twitter.com/profanityswan/status/835922751256932352

I thought it was established she hadn't lived in Britain for 30 years?

She went back to look after her dying parents and until her deportation was caring for her husband.

What kind of nation have we become?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.qakEvYOgg#.pojejArOO

A nation that pays far too much attention to buzzfeed, it would seem.

Individual immigration issues can be sad - but the rules are there for a reason. See last nighht's thread for far more even handed detail on this case.

(Some snipping)
But the rules are the rules.

Quite.

Bromptonaut said:

nielh said:

Mortimer said:

Bromptonaut said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

twitter.com/profanityswan/status/835922751256932352

I thought it was established she hadn't lived in Britain for 30 years?

She went back to look after her dying parents and until her deportation was caring for her husband.

What kind of nation have we become?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/a-grandmother-has-been-deported-with-just-ps12-in-her-pocket?utm_term=.qakEvYOgg#.pojejArOO

A nation that pays far too much attention to buzzfeed, it would seem.

Individual immigration issues can be sad - but the rules are there for a reason. See last nighht's thread for far more even handed detail on this case.

I dont think the full facts have been established on this case. Googling her and finding random stories on the internet is not the same as reading the home office files.
The basic point is that even though she has a family here, 2 generations, and is caring for her ill british husband she is still being deported and that is what most people find outrageous. But the rules are the rules.

When even the Daily Mail has a supportive article you know the PB Tories are out on their own.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4190826/amp/Grandmother-married-Briton-27-years-deported.html

Marginally more trustworthy than Buzzfeed, but at odds with the Strait Times articles.