politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won
Comments
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RBS results out tommorow. Hopefully a smaller loss than expected or same loss but with more provisions for fines etc. That'd be good.0
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I remember making a few hundred pounds on labour to win the Glenrothes by election because the odds had drifted so much, But know enough to know that until there's a good bit of emptying of ballot boxes no one really knows. I asked Mike on the site at about 10:30 if he thought it was value, it was.
My prediction
12,000 con
11,500 lab0 -
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.0 -
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
Weed needs light - not heat - to grow.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.0 -
Brings back some memories, but as you say, signified very little in the end. Tramping round Croydon North for Bill Pitt, 30 years later nothing has changed, you are free to choose a government (so long as it's Labour or Conservative!)stodge said:Afternoon all
Well, it's nice to have moved on from isnttheweatherbadbutwenorthernersaretough.com
A tale of two constituencies and racecourses:
Huntingdon (former MP John Major) - racing today abandoned due to strong winds.
Sedgefield (former MP Tony Blair) - racing goes ahead.
30 years ago (roughly), I was pounding the streets of Greenwich in the rain working for Rosie Barnes. Thoroughly miserable day but it all ended well as the Conservative vote disintegrated - in truth, Labour's vote didn't fall that much from 1983 but the Conservatives (who had run Labour close back then) slumped to a deposit-losing third (I think it was still 12.5%).
It seemed at the time to be a big event and with the Truro by election a couple of weeks later famously got Norman Tebbit so flustered he spent a whole day attacking the Alliance which only increased the party's poll numbers.
In the end, of course, it made no difference at all. The Alliance's own contradictions tore it apart, Margaret Thatcher won a second landslide and Rosie Barnes sank into obscurity along with the rest of the SDP though the diaspora found their way into and eventually took over both the Labour parties (Blair via the likes of David Marquand) and the Conservatives (David Cameron via the likes of Chris Grayling and Danny Finkelstein).
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I posted this link yesterday evening but nobody reacted to it at the time. I recommended pbers watch the approx 31mins long video in the vain hope that some of you might like to hear the campaign reflections of our outstanding LD candidate Rebecca Hanson. If you had watched this facebook video feed you would have found out Rebecca's feelings on the likely result. Watch it now if you want to know.
https://www.facebook.com/hansonforcopeland/?fref=ts0 -
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.
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Just worked out that more people have served in Labour's shadow cabinet since the 2015 GE (80) than served in the Thatcher / Major cabinets in total (75).
(Note - this is only the 18 years of their cabinets proper and excludes Thatcher's shadow cabinet 1975-9 and Major's brief one in 1997).0 -
Right, enough about storms and by-elections. Dinner jacket going on, out to the opera this evening, followed by an early night and hopefully get up for the results. Have fun and good luck to those involved in Stoke and Copeland. Laters.0
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Yeah that's what I am saying, they were not the obvious result.Philip_Thompson said:
There's a difference between "on a knife edge" and "the obvious result". The polls did show Brexit to be on a knife edge (especially during the postal vote period before the murder of Jo Cox) but people didn't believe the polls.isam said:
"Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge"DanSmith said:
Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.isam said:
Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!DanSmith said:
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Not really
Saying Brexit and Trump were "the obvious result" is crazy0 -
Yes they did, this isn't really even a debating point is it?isam said:
"Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge"DanSmith said:
Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.isam said:
Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!DanSmith said:
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Not really0 -
There was a pile of voting slips on the table nearest the camera that seemed to favour Goldsmith. But there were another 39 tables out of view.kle4 said:By the by, anyone recall if there was a reasoning th betting moved back toward Goldsmith around 0100 on the chart above?
EDIT: It is very easy to grasp at straws in the absence of real data.0 -
The postal votes were always likely to be overwhelmingly Labour in Stoke. UKIP need a very strong performance on the day to overcome it.Dixie said:
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
Alot of smoke signals emerging that UKIP haven't done enough in Stoke. Now might be the time to lay them like a man.Dixie said:
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
Last week's trial with the soon to be ex Councillor in Bath might have provided some leads. Some of the defendants in that case were Vietnamese.FrancisUrquhart said:
The large scale production is pretty much all tended to illegals immigrants who are trafficked to the UK and live at the grow, while the money men never go anywhere near the actual production locations.dr_spyn said:
Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
They say teens, might be, might also be that if you are trafficked to the UK you will be told if you ever get arrested claim you are a teenager.
So these busts shut down that location, arrest a handful of illegals, and the cycle starts up again somewhere else.0 -
Indeed. But...DYORPulpstar said:
Alot of smoke signals emerging that UKIP haven't done enough in Stoke. Now might be the time to lay them like a man.Dixie said:
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
yes, and on a low turnout, PVs might be 40% of votes. That's almost impossible to overturn.AndyJS said:
The postal votes were always likely to be overwhelmingly Labour in Stoke. UKIP need a very strong performance on the day to overcome it.Dixie said:
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
we're all guessing at this stage.isam said:0 -
Well I've got the liability up to £900 on them. Enough for me that to be honest.Dixie said:
Indeed. But...DYORPulpstar said:
Alot of smoke signals emerging that UKIP haven't done enough in Stoke. Now might be the time to lay them like a man.Dixie said:
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
Perhaps we can look forward to a spell of having Gareth Snell as Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities in due course.david_herdson said:Just worked out that more people have served in Labour's shadow cabinet since the 2015 GE (80) than served in the Thatcher / Major cabinets in total (75).
(Note - this is only the 18 years of their cabinets proper and excludes Thatcher's shadow cabinet 1975-9 and Major's brief one in 1997).0 -
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.0 -
as in, you gain £900 if UKIP win? and lose it if they lose?Pulpstar said:
Well I've got the liability up to £900 on them. Enough for me that to be honest.Dixie said:
Indeed. But...DYORPulpstar said:
Alot of smoke signals emerging that UKIP haven't done enough in Stoke. Now might be the time to lay them like a man.Dixie said:
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
0
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The odious Snell will deliver a vaguely competent speech tonight and will then be touted as a 'rising star' and future leader of his party.Richard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps we can look forward to a spell of having Gareth Snell as Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities in due course.david_herdson said:Just worked out that more people have served in Labour's shadow cabinet since the 2015 GE (80) than served in the Thatcher / Major cabinets in total (75).
(Note - this is only the 18 years of their cabinets proper and excludes Thatcher's shadow cabinet 1975-9 and Major's brief one in 1997).0 -
Is that Robert Kilroy-Silk's party?PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y0 -
I doubt the economics and techniques of cannabis farms are an area of expertise to many posters on this site. Indeed, Mr.Pubgoer seems to be suspiciously knowledgeable.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.0 -
Need daylight hours per day. That's what plants work by, hence growing seasons regardless of temperature. Using daylight bulbs will get you winter crops, provided the temperature is in the growing range.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.0 -
And in the shadow cabinet a week next Tuesday!Jason said:
The odious Snell will deliver a vaguely competent speech tonight and will then be touted as a 'rising star' and future leader of his party.Richard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps we can look forward to a spell of having Gareth Snell as Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities in due course.david_herdson said:Just worked out that more people have served in Labour's shadow cabinet since the 2015 GE (80) than served in the Thatcher / Major cabinets in total (75).
(Note - this is only the 18 years of their cabinets proper and excludes Thatcher's shadow cabinet 1975-9 and Major's brief one in 1997).0 -
I tend to work on the assumption that there are experts on every topic under the sun on this site. It is a part of its charm.HurstLlama said:
I doubt the economics and techniques of cannabis farms are an area of expertise to many posters on this site. Indeed, Mr.Pubgoer seems to be suspiciously knowledgeable.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.0 -
Never personally HLHurstLlama said:
I doubt the economics and techniques of cannabis farms are an area of expertise to many posters on this site. Indeed, Mr.Pubgoer seems to be suspiciously knowledgeable.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.
PBers have known many people.
I just seem to have known a few more rogues than most over the years.
Although I guess Sean T would probably lead the way in having known some dodgy geezers.
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The Tories and UKIP were virtually joint second last time in Stoke, if UKIP are collapsing they should stand a good chance.DanSmith said:
And if Copeland is that comfortable, assume that the Tories are getting very, very close in Stoke.Pulpstar said:
FOUR thousand.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Jesus.0 -
0
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Sent you a PM, basically betting reasonably heavily against UKIP in both By-elections now.Dixie said:
as in, you gain £900 if UKIP win? and lose it if they lose?Pulpstar said:
Well I've got the liability up to £900 on them. Enough for me that to be honest.Dixie said:
Indeed. But...DYORPulpstar said:
Alot of smoke signals emerging that UKIP haven't done enough in Stoke. Now might be the time to lay them like a man.Dixie said:
Once postal votes started coming in, they saw the big numbers and felt not many would be theirs. Of course, they don't know how people voted. and they are crap at forecasting. Libs said UKIP can't win and they are good at forecstingisam said:0 -
Who will then announce a 'crushing humiliation for May' when the results come in.....RoyalBlue said:
This is a Labour-leaning paper trying to discourage Tories from voting. Nothing more!Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
Nope. Its a front for James O'Keefe a US Conservative Political ActivistPhilip_Thompson said:
Is that Robert Kilroy-Silk's party?PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O'Keefe0 -
Or BREXIT......I'm sure he'd love to deal with.....what was he called it?Richard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps we can look forward to a spell of having Gareth Snell as Shadow Minister for Women and Equalities in due course.david_herdson said:Just worked out that more people have served in Labour's shadow cabinet since the 2015 GE (80) than served in the Thatcher / Major cabinets in total (75).
(Note - this is only the 18 years of their cabinets proper and excludes Thatcher's shadow cabinet 1975-9 and Major's brief one in 1997).0 -
One bet I'd avoid right now is buying Labour on the SPIN in Stoke.
If they're doing badly enough to come 2nd (It doesn't look like that, but bear with me) then the chance they're doing badly enough to come 3rd is there too (Due to the quite close two second place horses).
Copeland was always a reasonably close two horse race (UKIP a very distant third in 2015) so the analysis is different there.
I say this as a broad Labour backer in Stoke too.0 -
A lot of money being pumped on UKIP in Stoke. Now the most popular bet of the day.
Would not expect it to be based on any inside information though.0 -
Before the Jo Cox murder there were some polls showing Leave ahead, after the murder most polls showed Remain ahead, not surprisingly some people were reluctant to tell pollsters they were for Leave because little was known about the murder suspect.isam said:
"Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge"DanSmith said:
Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.isam said:
Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!DanSmith said:
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Not really
Saying Brexit and Trump were "the obvious result" is crazy
By polling day it had become clear that the killer was not a mainstream Brexiteer but a complete nutcase and the public again felt comfortable sticking with their original choice. However it came too late to be reflected in the final polls.
In the case of Trump, national polls which just had voting intention headline numbers did show him well behind, but there were some polls in the crucial marginal states that he needed to win. showing them neck and neck and Trump ahead by 1 or 2%.
The Conservatives winning a majority in 2015 wasn't picked up in any poll and was probably caused by don't knows making up their minds at the last minute.0 -
Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
I am reassured, Mr. Pubgoer.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Never personally HLHurstLlama said:
I doubt the economics and techniques of cannabis farms are an area of expertise to many posters on this site. Indeed, Mr.Pubgoer seems to be suspiciously knowledgeable.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.
PBers have known many people.
I just seem to have known a few more rogues than most over the years.
Although I guess Sean T would probably lead the way in having known some dodgy geezers.
In the who has known most crooks stakes, I would put SeanT well down the list. Anyone who has worked in the City for any length of time is probably leading him by a length and a half and those that have worked in merchant banking are so far clear of the field that they are could probably have a competition amongst themselves. The supposedly stale area of insurance is not immune either. I know of one chap, who might still be alive so I am not going to name him, having been thrown out of Lloyds for corrupt and improper practice used to do deals out of his Rolls Royce parked around the corner.0 -
Off-topic:
For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.
However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.
Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.
Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.
(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Still vividly recall the subtle shift over the first hour or two once the polls closed after the referendum. The smug complacency of a 10 point lead for Remain evaporated, and the financial chaps who had commissioned exit polls suddenly realised there was a reason there wasn't an official one.0 -
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
Labour activist i know, who is in Stoke just said they will lose Copeland!
Tory activist in know, who is in Copeland, saying all those who said they will vote Tory are coming out to vote.
DYOR DYOR but Stoke Labour, Copeland, perhaps Tory.0 -
blimey.notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
I believe Dr Palmer informed us earlier that it was in keeping with current Labour Party policy. I think the justification was along the lines of them running their GOTV operation as usual and if a voter says they have voted you might as well believe him because getting on his case if it doesn't match what your teller says is not going to make him more likely to vote for you.DanSmith said:
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
No. Standard Labour practice apparently (Nick Palmer explained it earlier)DanSmith said:
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
Seems odd but it is the way they do things.0 -
If the 4000 rumour is correct, it does not reflect well on Labour's expectation management.0
-
Of course there will also be information circulating already as to how the postal votes have gone!notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
UKIP not answering me. History tells me that is because they haven't won. Those in with a chance get verbose. Those losing cry alone.Brom said:A lot of money being pumped on UKIP in Stoke. Now the most popular bet of the day.
Would not expect it to be based on any inside information though.0 -
No, simply a measure of priority. The thought is that it's more important to put all your resource into knocking up friends than it is to know the result in advance - only one actually gets you any more votes.DanSmith said:
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
Personally I prefer to tell if I have the resource, but for an additional reason. Apparently up to 1 in 6 voters make up their mind inside the polling booth, and having a friendly face with a party badge at the entrance doesn't do any harm. We telled (what is the past tense of 'to tell'?) at one polling station in nine in my ward last May, so it got knocked up in the evening, and although we picked it due to strength, it was our best by miles. How much of that is between factors of underlying strength / smart knocking up / impact of seeing a teller at the polling station I can only conjecture.0 -
Call me jaded, but it all seems pretty lame stuff, even if I do think the MSM are biased against the GOP.AlsoIndigo said:
Nope. Its a front for James O'Keefe a US Conservative Political ActivistPhilip_Thompson said:
Is that Robert Kilroy-Silk's party?PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O'Keefe0 -
there will be, although that can be hard to gauge and give false hope. you have to see through the paper and count at speed.justin124 said:
Of course there will also be information circulating already as to how the postal votes have gone!notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
Looks like I'm continuing on form with my prediction of two Labour holds ... 0
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8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.
However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.
Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.
Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.
(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)
Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.0 -
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.Pulpstar said:
No. Standard Labour practice apparently (Nick Palmer explained it earlier)DanSmith said:
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
Seems odd but it is the way they do things.0 -
What would Theresa May's ideal scenario be tonight? A win in Copeland and a close second in Stoke?0
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Yep. The long list of unfortunate brushes with the boys in blue and interesting attempts to bait, solicit fraud and assorted other political stunts suggests he might not be the most objective reporter of the political actualité.MTimT said:
Call me jaded, but it all seems pretty lame stuff, even if I do think the MSM are biased against the GOP.AlsoIndigo said:
Nope. Its a front for James O'Keefe a US Conservative Political ActivistPhilip_Thompson said:
Is that Robert Kilroy-Silk's party?PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O'Keefe0 -
Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
There's 119 hours released just today - he's already taken two big scalps from DNC and three arrested before today.MTimT said:
Call me jaded, but it all seems pretty lame stuff, even if I do think the MSM are biased against the GOP.AlsoIndigo said:
Nope. Its a front for James O'Keefe a US Conservative Political ActivistPhilip_Thompson said:
Is that Robert Kilroy-Silk's party?PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O'Keefe
I'd take this pretty seriously if I was a media man right now0 -
It looks a sweet chip. I'm waiting for a teardown of how they've done it.HurstLlama said:
8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.
However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.
Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.
Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.
(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)
Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.
I think you're thinking of ARM's takeover by Softbank. Profitable for me and many friends, but the end of an era.0 -
Two wins, maximise the pressure on Corbyn. May would be perfectly happy to see them having another months long leadership campaign.Carolus_Rex said:What would Theresa May's ideal scenario be tonight? A win in Copeland and a close second in Stoke?
0 -
what are Tory odds in Copeland? The noise I am getting from there is put a few bob on.0
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Careful Mr Thompson.MTimT said:
Need daylight hours per day. That's what plants work by, hence growing seasons regardless of temperature. Using daylight bulbs will get you winter crops, provided the temperature is in the growing range.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's not heat that you need.Philip_Thompson said:
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season.
You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.
You are displaying far too much expertise as an innocent,0 -
I attended the opening of Postal Votes fot the Norwich North By election in July 2009 on behalf of Craig Murray.From my observations I was able to correctly predict the % vote shares of each of the main parties to within 0.5%. In particular, I predicted that UKIP would beat the Greens - which surprised a lot of people at the time! The only vote share I was a bit out on was the BNP - who managed circa 2.5% rather than the 1% I had suggested from my tallying.Dixie said:
there will be, although that can be hard to gauge and give false hope. you have to see through the paper and count at speed.justin124 said:
Of course there will also be information circulating already as to how the postal votes have gone!notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
but of course, you didn't tell anyone, because it is illegal?justin124 said:
I attended the opening of Postal Votes fot the Norwich North By election in July 2009 on behalf of Craig Murray.From my observations I was able to correctly predict the % vote shares of each of the main parties to within 0.5%. In particular, I predicted that UKIP would beat the Greens - which surprised a lot of people at the time! The only vote share I was a bit out on was the BNP - who managed circa 2.5% rather than the 1% I had suggested from my tallying.Dixie said:
there will be, although that can be hard to gauge and give false hope. you have to see through the paper and count at speed.justin124 said:
Of course there will also be information circulating already as to how the postal votes have gone!notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.0 -
He has a long track record of making unfair edits that misrepresent the circumstances and having to issue apologies or settle, the whole ACORN fiasco just after Obama was elected started with him if I recall... and cost him $100,000 to settle when he got rumbled.PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
There's 119 hours released just today - he's already taken two big scalps from DNC and three arrested before today.MTimT said:
Call me jaded, but it all seems pretty lame stuff, even if I do think the MSM are biased against the GOP.AlsoIndigo said:
Nope. Its a front for James O'Keefe a US Conservative Political ActivistPhilip_Thompson said:
Is that Robert Kilroy-Silk's party?PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O'Keefe
I'd take this pretty seriously if I was a media man right now0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, 4,000 rumour?0
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Win both, pull a fully formed brexit plan / Theresa Maynifesto out of her back pocket tomorrow, call an election with a promise to immediately trigger A50 - conditional on a Con Majority.Carolus_Rex said:What would Theresa May's ideal scenario be tonight? A win in Copeland and a close second in Stoke?
It would kill labour, kill UKIP and set up the pro-EU LD's as her opposition for the next parliament.0 -
Surely, a close second in both; enough to give Corbyn an apparent victory to keep him in situ, but also enough to put them both in reach come the GE.Carolus_Rex said:What would Theresa May's ideal scenario be tonight? A win in Copeland and a close second in Stoke?
0 -
tpfkar said:
No, simply a measure of priority. The thought is that it's more important to put all your resource into knocking up friends than it is to know the result in advance - only one actually gets you any more votes.DanSmith said:
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
Personally I prefer to tell if I have the resource, but for an additional reason. Apparently up to 1 in 6 voters make up their mind inside the polling booth, and having a friendly face with a party badge at the entrance doesn't do any harm. We telled (what is the past tense of 'to tell'?) at one polling station in nine in my ward last May, so it got knocked up in the evening, and although we picked it due to strength, it was our best by miles. How much of that is between factors of underlying strength / smart knocking up / impact of seeing a teller at the polling station I can only conjecture.
Yes. It's a poor show if you can't rally up a couple of dozen older supporters to take names. It doesn't preclude the other stuff, and come six pm when you are knocking up its useful to have half of your voters already crossed off..
0 -
Yes, we still collect turnout information from the polling station, but not the stuff about "George Smith of 117 Acacia Road has voted" - it's mildly useful in the early hours, but when most people vote around 6 the data comes into the system too slowoly to be worthwhile, and tempts activists to try to perfect their data instead of getting out there.MTimT said:
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.
In my patch, the other parties do the same.0 -
Has Rogerdamus pronounced - he's usually very reliable.....JosiasJessop said:Looks like I'm continuing on form with my prediction of two Labour holds ...
0 -
fellow campaign workers.Dixie said:
but of course, you didn't tell anyone, because it is illegal?justin124 said:
I attended the opening of Postal Votes fot the Norwich North By election in July 2009 on behalf of Craig Murray.From my observations I was able to correctly predict the % vote shares of each of the main parties to within 0.5%. In particular, I predicted that UKIP would beat the Greens - which surprised a lot of people at the time! The only vote share I was a bit out on was the BNP - who managed circa 2.5% rather than the 1% I had suggested from my tallying.Dixie said:
there will be, although that can be hard to gauge and give false hope. you have to see through the paper and count at speed.justin124 said:
Of course there will also be information circulating already as to how the postal votes have gone!notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
I suppose I could have popped down to Ladbrokes !0 -
You are quite right , Mr. J, I am confusing my ARM with my AMD - age you know.JosiasJessop said:
It looks a sweet chip. I'm waiting for a teardown of how they've done it.HurstLlama said:
8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.
However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.
Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.
Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.
(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)
Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.
I think you're thinking of ARM's takeover by Softbank. Profitable for me and many friends, but the end of an era.
It looks like I am going to be up your way on the week-end of 27-28th May, might you be around for a lunch or even an early evening drinkie?0 -
That Labour will be out of power until the year 4000. I don't buy it myself, but I've put a few quid onMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, 4,000 rumour?
Or more probably the idea the Tories will win Copeland by 4000. I don't buy that one either.0 -
AMD are still a serious player in the graphics card market, it's entirely possible there has been lots of spin off technology from their research and development efforts there that they can use in the CPUs.JosiasJessop said:
It looks a sweet chip. I'm waiting for a teardown of how they've done it.HurstLlama said:
8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.
However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.
Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.
Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.
(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)
Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.
I think you're thinking of ARM's takeover by Softbank. Profitable for me and many friends, but the end of an era.0 -
Mr. kle4, so, quite an optimistic assessment, then?0
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So Tories to win Copeland and get 2nd in StokeAlastairMeeks said:0 -
There are almost certainly biases in everything published but there was nothing in those recordings at all to raise alarms. It was similar yesterday with the anti semitism article being an internal plot within the Democrats with regard to their own internal elections. Might be true, but no evidence was given and it was quite a conspiracy theory. Surely in a two party system the left and right are going to get support from some on the extremes whose views they may not agree with. Trump has support from the alt right who have some interesting views. It is what you would expect and it is something he does or does not deal with.MTimT said:
Call me jaded, but it all seems pretty lame stuff, even if I do think the MSM are biased against the GOP.AlsoIndigo said:
Nope. Its a front for James O'Keefe a US Conservative Political ActivistPhilip_Thompson said:
Is that Robert Kilroy-Silk's party?PlatoSaid said:Project Veritas undercover at CNN HQ
https://youtu.be/xf-0_dFnl-Y
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_O'Keefe
Occam's razor generally rules and these links are just nonsense without some evidence. It is a bit like a cult. Followers believe anything put in front of them from their leaders no matter how contrived.0 -
Ah.Pong said:
Win both, pull a fully formed brexit plan / Theresa Maynifesto out of her back pocket tomorrow, call an election with a promise to immediately trigger A50 - conditional on a Con Majority.Carolus_Rex said:What would Theresa May's ideal scenario be tonight? A win in Copeland and a close second in Stoke?
It would kill labour, kill UKIP and set up the pro-EU LD's as her opposition for the next parliament.
My mistake - I'd forgotten all about that fully formed brexit plan!0 -
But presumably both Tories and Lib Dems expect to come second. Fake news!Dixie said:
So Tories to win Copeland and get 2nd in StokeAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Chimes with what @Dixie is saying too.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The FT on Russian cyber warriors:
https://www.ft.com/content/f41e1dc4-ef83-11e6-ba01-119a44939bb60 -
Unless labour comes 4th.Brom said:
But presumably both Tories and Lib Dems expect to come second. Fake news!Dixie said:
So Tories to win Copeland and get 2nd in StokeAlastairMeeks said:
0 -
No. Neither has said that - I'd expect it to be the Tories 2nd at the moment but if they're both saying UKIP 3rd it probably means they haven't won.Brom said:
But presumably both Tories and Lib Dems expect to come second. Fake news!Dixie said:
So Tories to win Copeland and get 2nd in StokeAlastairMeeks said:
Remember UKIP were useless in Oldham West & Royton most recently where they were expected to challenge.0 -
I'm told no-one is allowed to tell anyone!justin124 said:
fellow campaign workers.Dixie said:
but of course, you didn't tell anyone, because it is illegal?justin124 said:
I attended the opening of Postal Votes fot the Norwich North By election in July 2009 on behalf of Craig Murray.From my observations I was able to correctly predict the % vote shares of each of the main parties to within 0.5%. In particular, I predicted that UKIP would beat the Greens - which surprised a lot of people at the time! The only vote share I was a bit out on was the BNP - who managed circa 2.5% rather than the 1% I had suggested from my tallying.Dixie said:
there will be, although that can be hard to gauge and give false hope. you have to see through the paper and count at speed.justin124 said:
Of course there will also be information circulating already as to how the postal votes have gone!notme said:Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
I suppose I could have popped down to Ladbrokes !0 -
Unlikely, but it still pays out if you lay UKIP.wasd said:
Unless labour comes 4th.Brom said:
But presumably both Tories and Lib Dems expect to come second. Fake news!Dixie said:
So Tories to win Copeland and get 2nd in StokeAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?0
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good point. Libs may do it!Brom said:
But presumably both Tories and Lib Dems expect to come second. Fake news!Dixie said:
So Tories to win Copeland and get 2nd in StokeAlastairMeeks said:0 -
In a low turnout vote the governing party taking a seat from the official opposition by 4,000 would be among the biggest by-election sensations in history. It would indicate a Tory majority at the next GE of over 150 and would probably spell the end of Corbyn whatever happens in Stoke.kle4 said:
That Labour will be out of power until the year 4000. I don't buy it myself, but I've put a few quid onMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, 4,000 rumour?
Or more probably the idea the Tories will win Copeland by 4000. I don't buy that one either.
0 -
Both the Tories and the Lib Dems do have a bit of a vested interest, but the Lib Dem canvass estimates in Richmond were a very very good indicator and their interest was somewhat more vested than most there.justin124 said:Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?
0
