Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?
No. Standard Labour practice apparently (Nick Palmer explained it earlier)
Seems odd but it is the way they do things.
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.
If you have the manpwoer just ring all your canvassed supporters during the afternoon and evening.
Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?
Both the Tories and the Lib Dems do have a bit of a vested interest, but the Lib Dem canvass estimates in Richmond were a very very good indicator and their interest was somewhat more vested than most there.
I was thinking more of the 4000 majority suggestion re-Copeland.
Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?
No. Standard Labour practice apparently (Nick Palmer explained it earlier)
Seems odd but it is the way they do things.
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.
If you have the manpwoer just ring all your canvassed supporters during the afternoon and evening.
Telephone data is very very sketchy now. It's not automatically on the electoral roll, and though exempt from Tps, it's usually best to honour it.
But presumably both Tories and Lib Dems expect to come second. Fake news!
No. Neither has said that - I'd expect it to be the Tories 2nd at the moment but if they're both saying UKIP 3rd it probably means they haven't won.
Remember UKIP were useless in Oldham West & Royton most recently where they were expected to challenge.
They were never, ever going to win there. The people saying they expected a challenge were setting them up for a fall so they could write them off afterwards
FWIW I laid them at 8/1 there, and expect them to come at least close 2nd here
Labour are not doing any polling station telling for the Copeland by election. That means they literally have no idea how the day is going. They have no means to measure whether their vote is coming out or not so are running it blind.
The conservatives will be able to project how they think things are going, whether that gets out to journalists is another matter, but labour have no idea, any claims otherwise are entirely conjecture. When the boxes are emptied tonight will be their first piece of knowledge as to how it went.
Would that be an indication they have given up hope?
No. Standard Labour practice apparently (Nick Palmer explained it earlier)
Seems odd but it is the way they do things.
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.
If you have the manpwoer just ring all your canvassed supporters during the afternoon and evening.
Outside of by elections it is normal to close down a committee room and move troops elsewhere if you are clearly losing a ward or if you think you have it sown up. How can you do that without tellers returns. Calling your own supporters tells you nothing about the opposition turnout. How does Labours teller policy deal with that?
Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?
Both the Tories and the Lib Dems do have a bit of a vested interest, but the Lib Dem canvass estimates in Richmond were a very very good indicator and their interest was somewhat more vested than most there.
I was thinking more of the 4000 majority suggestion re-Copeland.
Turnout around 30,000 in Copeland maybe ?
So a 4000 majority would be around 13.5%. That'd be a 10% swing and if copied in Stoke results in a narrow win for the Tories there too !
Of course how good the info he's been given is another matter.....
Tories and Lib Dems are both informed but reasonably disinterested parties so far as the UKIP/Lab dynamic goes in Stoke. The Lib Dems won't want to say the Tories are second as they need to motivate their own vote to come out, and the Tories won't want to say because of expectation management. Saying UKIP is probably third suits both parties and is most likely true to the best of their knowledge. The Lib Dem info in Richmond most recently was very good.
Quite a clever place to do this. Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots. You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*. EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?
It's not heat that you need. It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season. You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.
Need daylight hours per day. That's what plants work by, hence growing seasons regardless of temperature. Using daylight bulbs will get you winter crops, provided the temperature is in the growing range.
Careful Mr Thompson.
You are displaying far too much expertise as an innocent,
I met a company about a decade ago that were trying to produce leds that were perfectly tuned for photosynthesis, with 90%+ of the energy they consumed coming out in the wavelengths that plants used to grow. Their presentation was all about ending world hunger, but I suspect (if they ever got it working perfectly) that all the early buyers would be pot farmers.
There is no sense in not having tellers on Polling Stations if your opponents do. I have been party to research on this matter and it does affect the box by 10 to 15%. I know most if not every polling station in Copeland was going to have Conservative tellers through to at least 8 pm.
The LDs were saying yesterday it was a Con gain. The feeling among the Cons was that a lot of work had been done. Labour activists are confident and perhaps hopeful they will lose. (They don't all like the candidate.) One visiting Con councillor leafletter was annoyed he had been going around one of the bigger towns rather than more Tory areas. The LD mission is clear - do the groundwork for 2 or 3 county divisions near Keswick under cover from the by-election.
Who knows who will win but there is evidence of differential effort in the GOTV, Con and LD much stronger than Lab.
I've said Con gain since December and see no reason or concern to move away from that position. But I do not think 4,000 is remotely credible unless Labour are doing nothing at all.
Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?
Both the Tories and the Lib Dems do have a bit of a vested interest, but the Lib Dem canvass estimates in Richmond were a very very good indicator and their interest was somewhat more vested than most there.
I was thinking more of the 4000 majority suggestion re-Copeland.
Turnout around 30,000 in Copeland maybe ?
So a 4000 majority would be around 13.5%. That'd be a 10% swing and if copied in Stoke results in a narrow win for the Tories there too !
For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.
However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.
Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.
Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.
(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)
8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.
Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.
It looks a sweet chip. I'm waiting for a teardown of how they've done it.
I think you're thinking of ARM's takeover by Softbank. Profitable for me and many friends, but the end of an era.
You are quite right , Mr. J, I am confusing my ARM with my AMD - age you know.
It looks like I am going to be up your way on the week-end of 27-28th May, might you be around for a lunch or even an early evening drinkie?
That sounds like a spiffing idea. Shall I pencil it in?
Could someone be starting a rumour to deliberately shift the betting odds?
Both the Tories and the Lib Dems do have a bit of a vested interest, but the Lib Dem canvass estimates in Richmond were a very very good indicator and their interest was somewhat more vested than most there.
I was thinking more of the 4000 majority suggestion re-Copeland.
Turnout around 30,000 in Copeland maybe ?
So a 4000 majority would be around 13.5%. That'd be a 10% swing and if copied in Stoke results in a narrow win for the Tories there too !
Surely v different seats and dynamics?
The Lab-Tory swing 'gap' in Richmond Park vs Sleaford & North Hykeham was 8 or 4% whichever way you want to look at it. Copeland and Stoke are more similiar than those two seats were so a 10% swing to the Tories in Copeland definitely implies a positive swing to the Tories and probable second in Stoke.
For the last forty or so years, Intel have been a dominant force in the chip industry with their x86 range. They've been challenged by upstart competitor AMD, who took a rather significant x86 market share off Chipzilla about ten to fifteen years ago.
However Intel fought back, and AMD consistently lagged behind the behemoth. However Intel are having significant problems moving onto their new 10-nanomemtre process, and yesterday AMD launched their new architecture, Ryzen. This is only slightly lower than Intel's fastest x86 offering, but under half the price.
Interesting times in the tech world. As performance gains by shrinking the process become harder and much more expensive, it pays to be clever.
Time will show whether AMD have really done this, or if it's all smoke and mirrors.
(I have no connection with either AMD or Intel)
8 cores and 16 threads at 3.6 GHZ for less than £400, that is pretty damn good (the nearest intel offering is £1,100). The release date is next week so I doubt someone is trying a smoke and mirrors strategy at this stage. So maybe AMD is really about to take the crown.
Wasn't AMD sold to the Japanese recently? If so all the IP and all the future profits have already gone off-shore.
It looks a sweet chip. I'm waiting for a teardown of how they've done it.
I think you're thinking of ARM's takeover by Softbank. Profitable for me and many friends, but the end of an era.
You are quite right , Mr. J, I am confusing my ARM with my AMD - age you know.
It looks like I am going to be up your way on the week-end of 27-28th May, might you be around for a lunch or even an early evening drinkie?
That sounds like a spiffing idea. Shall I pencil it in?
Please do, Mr. J, and let me know which session suits you best. I have tickets for the airshow for both days and will, I hope, be staying with my niece, so whatever time suits you.
Quite a clever place to do this. Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots. You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*. EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?
It's not heat that you need. It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season. You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.
Need daylight hours per day. That's what plants work by, hence growing seasons regardless of temperature. Using daylight bulbs will get you winter crops, provided the temperature is in the growing range.
Careful Mr Thompson.
You are displaying far too much expertise as an innocent,
I met a company about a decade ago that were trying to produce leds that were perfectly tuned for photosynthesis, with 90%+ of the energy they consumed coming out in the wavelengths that plants used to grow. Their presentation was all about ending world hunger, but I suspect (if they ever got it working perfectly) that all the early buyers would be pot farmers.
You need to be able to tune the lights to provide different optimum light for different growing phases of the plants. For leaf and plant growth the requirements are different from seedling plant growth and to induce and speed up flowering another spectrum is better. Also different species of plants will require slightly different light. One size will not fit all!
The wrong light can slow things down.
The plant will only develop at the speed of the most limited input (CO2, Light, Heat, Water, Nutrients). Some of the Cannabis growers are very good.
You need to be able to tune the lights to provide different optimum light for different growing phases of the plants. For leaf and plant growth the requirements are different from seedling plant growth and to induce and speed up flowering another spectrum is better. Also different species of plants will require slightly different light. One size will not fit all!
The wrong light can slow things down.
The plant will only develop at the speed of the most limited input (CO2, Light, Heat, Water, Nutrients). Some of the Cannabis growers are very good.
4.1 - 4.9 now. Tories and Labour both benefitting.
All because of a tweet from a UKIP hating BBC journo!
Why are the BBC (including individual journalists) tweeting anything during election day? I thought they had a strict policy of 'no comment' while voting was going on.
4.1 - 4.9 now. Tories and Labour both benefitting.
All because of a tweet from a UKIP hating BBC journo!
Why are the BBC (including individual journalists) tweeting anything during election day? I thought they had a strict policy of 'no comment' while voting was going on.
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........
Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.
Yes, we still collect turnout information from the polling station, but not the stuff about "George Smith of 117 Acacia Road has voted" - it's mildly useful in the early hours, but when most people vote around 6 the data comes into the system too slowoly to be worthwhile, and tempts activists to try to perfect their data instead of getting out there.
In my patch, the other parties do the same.
And presumably to do it properly you'd need solid data on the postal votes as well nowadays? I think it is a bit of a shame though. The knocking up business does give activists a sense of purpose on polling day and something useful to do.
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.
Yes, we still collect turnout information from the polling station, but not the stuff about "George Smith of 117 Acacia Road has voted" - it's mildly useful in the early hours, but when most people vote around 6 the data comes into the system too slowoly to be worthwhile, and tempts activists to try to perfect their data instead of getting out there.
In my patch, the other parties do the same.
And presumably to do it properly you'd need solid data on the postal votes as well nowadays? I think it is a bit of a shame though. The knocking up business does give activists a sense of purpose on polling day and something useful to do.
Knocking up goes on full blast, it's just the telling that doesn't. If you're knocking up 8 houses in a steet, it's easier to do them all than wait around in the committee room to find out if number 17 has voted.
But yes, it would help knocking up for all parties if the Returning Officer would release PVs cast. We were told it's against the law.
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........
Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.
This. It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........
Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.
This. It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).
Yes but then you miss the fun of watching the market swing violently as Faisal Islam comes out with some rumour or another.
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........
Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.
This. It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).
Yes but then you miss the fun of trying to watching the market swing violently as Faisal Islam comes out with some rumour or another.
This will be the time I keep topping up and the drift is real!
But after Trump, Brexit and Con Maj day of election drift, I am not buying the overheard conversations of partisan observers
Quite a clever place to do this. Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots. You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*. EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
Not my area of expertise but surely the very point of the lights is to generate heat so how would using LEDs help?
It's not heat that you need. It's the light so that you can control and force the growing season. You can net 0.8kg every 12-13 weeks from about 40 plants.
Interesting didn't know that, as I said not my area of expertise at all. I always assumed it was a greenhouse-like effect of heat that the lights were there to generate.
I doubt the economics and techniques of cannabis farms are an area of expertise to many posters on this site. Indeed, Mr.Pubgoer seems to be suspiciously knowledgeable.
Never personally HL PBers have known many people. I just seem to have known a few more rogues than most over the years. Although I guess Sean T would probably lead the way in having known some dodgy geezers.
I am reassured, Mr. Pubgoer.
In the who has known most crooks stakes, I would put SeanT well down the list. Anyone who has worked in the City for any length of time is probably leading him by a length and a half and those that have worked in merchant banking are so far clear of the field that they are could probably have a competition amongst themselves. The supposedly stale area of insurance is not immune either. I know of one chap, who might still be alive so I am not going to name him, having been thrown out of Lloyds for corrupt and improper practice used to do deals out of his Rolls Royce parked around the corner.
I think I ought to win that competition! I did do my bit putting the perpetrator of Britain's biggest fraud in prison, after all.
And I meet dodgy geezers every day of the week.....
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........
Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.
This. It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).
Yes but then you miss the fun of watching the market swing violently as Faisal Islam comes out with some rumour or another.
Faisal was very pro remain but I don't know which political party he might support. Respect?
From what I'm hearing, a lot of people are going to be disappointed.
I'm not hearing anything at all from here but I can also tell you that a lot of people are going to be disappointed. In fact I'd be more daring than Recdivist and venture *very* disappointed. Positively grumpy, in fact.
It's called democracy. From the Greek demos meaning "people" and cracy meaning "crass".
It does seem very odd indeed for a party that claims to have a good GOTV machine. In the US, they measure the turnout almost by the hour targeted by post code, and send the volunteers around to the locations where the vote has not shown up. Can't do that without the data during the course of the day.
Yes, we still collect turnout information from the polling station, but not the stuff about "George Smith of 117 Acacia Road has voted" - it's mildly useful in the early hours, but when most people vote around 6 the data comes into the system too slowoly to be worthwhile, and tempts activists to try to perfect their data instead of getting out there.
In my patch, the other parties do the same.
And presumably to do it properly you'd need solid data on the postal votes as well nowadays? I think it is a bit of a shame though. The knocking up business does give activists a sense of purpose on polling day and something useful to do.
Knocking up goes on full blast, it's just the telling that doesn't. If you're knocking up 8 houses in a steet, it's easier to do them all than wait around in the committee room to find out if number 17 has voted.
But yes, it would help knocking up for all parties if the Returning Officer would release PVs cast. We were told it's against the law.
Try doing this for 70,000 electors in a rural constituency.
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........
Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.
This. It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).
Yes but then you miss the fun of trying to watching the market swing violently as Faisal Islam comes out with some rumour or another.
This will be the time I keep topping up and the drift is real!
But after Trump, Brexit and Con Maj day of election drift, I am not buying the overheard conversations of partisan observers
Fair enough.
If there were no differences of opinion then we wouldn't have a live betting market
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
I thought this site was about politics and betting. Apologies if passing on information is a bit of a drag. Nobody knows the outcome. I'm just passing it on. I also apologise for knowing senior people in 3 parties who are happy to talk to me. I must ask them to stop. What shall we discuss? The weather?
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
I thought this site was about politics and betting. Apologies if passing on information is a bit of a drag. Nobody knows the outcome. I'm just passing it on. I also apologise for knowing senior people in 3 parties who are happy to talk to me. I must ask them to stop. What shall we discuss? The weather?
Your assessment of the mood music around Zac's disastrous by-election was spot on, so I for one am paying attention to your posts.
From what I'm hearing, a lot of people are going to be disappointed.
Two holds for Labour?
I've been on 2 holds for Labour since the beginning. Only now am I starting to think differently based on the info from both Labour and Tories in Copeland. But DYOR
Phil Neville said on radio that there is no way Wayne would go to China. He has so many relatives and friends in the North West and he is a family person
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
I thought this site was about politics and betting. Apologies if passing on information is a bit of a drag. Nobody knows the outcome. I'm just passing it on. I also apologise for knowing senior people in 3 parties who are happy to talk to me. I must ask them to stop. What shall we discuss? The weather?
Are you Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh? Fair enough, forgive my scepticism. I somewhat doubt anyone would be in the pub or having a mild orgasm with hours of voting left in a finely balanced contest.
Update from Copeland: Labour in the pub; Tories smiling like having had a mild orgasm. In Stoke, UKIP incommunicado. I.E., f*cked.
Your ramping is more obvious than what goes on on the Betfair Forum. I suppose once you've clear out your positions the information will dry up.
Yep, does sound like Billy Bullshit has got a login.
His info chimes with George Eaton, Tory, Lib Dem sources regarding Stoke and the local rag in Copeland though........
Let's be honest it's more likely 1 person has said something and others have run with it and recycled the information. Unless people reveal their source or have a great track record then little is to be believed at this point in the day. We've been here before many, many times.
This. It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).
Yes but then you miss the fun of watching the market swing violently as Faisal Islam comes out with some rumour or another.
Oh if you enjoy it... Don't let me spoil your fun!
There is no sense in not having tellers on Polling Stations if your opponents do. I have been party to research on this matter and it does affect the box by 10 to 15%. I know most if not every polling station in Copeland was going to have Conservative tellers through to at least 8 pm.
The LDs were saying yesterday it was a Con gain. The feeling among the Cons was that a lot of work had been done. Labour activists are confident and perhaps hopeful they will lose. (They don't all like the candidate.) One visiting Con councillor leafletter was annoyed he had been going around one of the bigger towns rather than more Tory areas. The LD mission is clear - do the groundwork for 2 or 3 county divisions near Keswick under cover from the by-election.
Who knows who will win but there is evidence of differential effort in the GOTV, Con and LD much stronger than Lab.
I've said Con gain since December and see no reason or concern to move away from that position. But I do not think 4,000 is remotely credible unless Labour are doing nothing at all.
The county potentials in a few months are juicy for the cons also, two or three seats in the Copeland area of Cumbria could be picked up easily. There's been historically not a lot of intelligence in the Copeland area for the tories, a weakness in the local organisation, which does have some dedicated members but not the body to mount their own proper parliamentary campaigns.
The only shame if the cons win is the abolition of the constituency in the boundary review and the creation of a safe urban Workington and Whitehaven seat.
Would May be tempted to call a snap general election and push through a law change to end fixed term parliaments? At least we could get to keep it for a good time longer.
Comments
That said, I do have a bet on Labour winning Copeland. Could the Curse of Morris Dancer be more powerful then we ever thought possible?
FWIW I laid them at 8/1 there, and expect them to come at least close 2nd here
So a 4000 majority would be around 13.5%. That'd be a 10% swing and if copied in Stoke results in a narrow win for the Tories there too !
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/834792383053172736
Of course how good the info he's been given is another matter.....
I've a bet on him gone before Corbyn...
Almost worth buying LD and Tory on the Stoke index...?
The Lib Dems won't want to say the Tories are second as they need to motivate their own vote to come out, and the Tories won't want to say because of expectation management. Saying UKIP is probably third suits both parties and is most likely true to the best of their knowledge.
The Lib Dem info in Richmond most recently was very good.
Lab 7k Con 5k UKIP 4k LD 2k
on vote UK at
vote-2012.proboards.com
I've little faith if any of these predictions.
The LDs were saying yesterday it was a Con gain. The feeling among the Cons was that a lot of work had been done. Labour activists are confident and perhaps hopeful they will lose. (They don't all like the candidate.) One visiting Con councillor leafletter was annoyed he had been going around one of the bigger towns rather than more Tory areas. The LD mission is clear - do the groundwork for 2 or 3 county divisions near Keswick under cover from the by-election.
Who knows who will win but there is evidence of differential effort in the GOTV, Con and LD much stronger than Lab.
I've said Con gain since December and see no reason or concern to move away from that position. But I do not think 4,000 is remotely credible unless Labour are doing nothing at all.
@Olivianuzzi: Richard Spencer, asked if he likes rock music, says "Depeche Mode is the official band of the alt-right."
Lib-Dems NOT Winning Here if The Loony is correct!
Didn't Realize John Loony had decided to LEAVE PB BTW?
Didn't Realize John Loony had decided to LEAVE PB BTW?
I'm sure he pops in every now and then, often at odd hours of the morning.
Didn't Realize John Loony had decided to LEAVE PB BTW?
Mr Looney posts infrequently, but has still made an appearance over the last few days.
Which is also rumoured.
(*missing person)
Copeland: Labour 32%, Tories 30%, LDs 15% and UKIP 13%
Stoke: Labour 32%, Tories 23%, UKIP 22%, LD 15%
The wrong light can slow things down.
The plant will only develop at the speed of the most limited input (CO2, Light, Heat, Water, Nutrients). Some of the Cannabis growers are very good.
4.1 - 4.9 now. Tories and Labour both benefitting.
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2016/11/14/antarctic-greenhouse-dlr/
https://www.ft.com/content/ce317948-efbb-11e6-930f-061b01e23655
I must have missed him.
Perhaps I should have said "Early of this parish" rather than "Late of this parish."
https://medium.com/@andygoss/stokeland-a8c1f8e01d51#.4313uhj0o
(A total long shot, but put some money on the tories in stoke as thought they were value)
But yes, it would help knocking up for all parties if the Returning Officer would release PVs cast. We were told it's against the law.
Le Pen 26.5 No change
Macron 22.5 Up 3.5
Fillon 20.5 Up 1.5
http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/23-02-2017.pdf
R2: Macron 61 - Le Pen 39
Edit: Corrected yr original post.
depends if people can be arsed to vote for him, he has the weakest support base of the lot
seems a bit of a gobshite
But yes, a good poll for Macron, but still a long way to go.
It's like choosing to believe what you hear on transfer deadline day. Just go to bed and wake up the next day (hopefully).
VI turnout for Fillon is stronger than for Macron
But after Trump, Brexit and Con Maj day of election drift, I am not buying the overheard conversations of partisan observers
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39067908
And I meet dodgy geezers every day of the week.....
One hopes you're not referring to your fellow PBers
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/john-boehner-obamacare-republicans-235303
It's called democracy. From the Greek demos meaning "people" and cracy meaning "crass".
Try doing this for 70,000 electors in a rural constituency.
If there were no differences of opinion then we wouldn't have a live betting market
Weren't you in the pub with them at the time ?
https://twitter.com/itvfootball/status/834816917181435909
You think he will quit?
http://www.france24.com/en/20170223-clashes-french-youths-protest-alleged-police-rape
Must read up on Proverbs 16:18 tonight.
The only shame if the cons win is the abolition of the constituency in the boundary review and the creation of a safe urban Workington and Whitehaven seat.
Would May be tempted to call a snap general election and push through a law change to end fixed term parliaments? At least we could get to keep it for a good time longer.