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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited February 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly

Above is a chart showing the Betfair exchange prices on the day of December’s Richmond Park by-election. As can be seen those who were following the betting for their inspiration would have got it wrong until about 11:30 p.m.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    edited February 2017
    Ah yes Dunfermline 2006.

    When Charles Kennedy and Mark Oaten ran for the leadership and the shit hit the erm fan.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Betting markets tell you what gamblers think is going to happen, not what is going to happen.

    I'd be inclined to take a little more notice of price movements in Stoke Central, which is a relatively easy seat for parties to get a handle on owing to its compact size, than Copeland, which is the reverse. But I won't be taking very much notice of either.

    I'll mainly be looking out for off-the-record comments by Lib Dems.
  • ipfreelyipfreely Posts: 29
    second, like Labour in Copeland
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Well down the running like a Green candidate in Copeland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    The Tories might well win Copeland but 1.44/1.45 is a horror price.
    OTOH @Shadsy 4-7 for Labour in Stoke looks good value.
  • ipfreelyipfreely Posts: 29
    interesting that the Dunfermline by-election of February 2007 (actually Dunfermline and West Fife in February 2006) went from Lib Dems getting 35%+ in 2006 and 2010 to LOSING THEIR DEPOSITS in 2015.
    #BigLeagueLosers
  • ipfreelyipfreely Posts: 29
    what time are the results expected?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    ipfreely said:

    what time are the results expected?

    I think someone here yesterday suggested 1-2am for Stoke and 3-4am for Copeland (weather permitting).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    TudorRose said:

    ipfreely said:

    what time are the results expected?

    I think someone here yesterday suggested 1-2am for Stoke and 3-4am for Copeland (weather permitting).
    Depends if people remember their big coats ;-)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is one reason why Labour losing Copeland should have Jeremy Corbyn circling the plughole:

    https://medium.com/@theobertram/the-copeland-test-labours-core-vote-ddac4fb8ee#.fzovnu9bz
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TudorRose said:

    ipfreely said:

    what time are the results expected?

    I think someone here yesterday suggested 1-2am for Stoke and 3-4am for Copeland (weather permitting).
    Depends if people remember their big coats ;-)
    There was a suggestion that Copeland might defer until Friday if things got 'bad'. Here in North Lancs it's just a bit breezy, nothing special really.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Lots of people who thought they'd get away with it are moaning like crazy now.

    "A total of 214 people involved in protests on Inauguration Day in downtown Washington have been indicted on felony rioting charges.
    A grand jury in D.C. charged five individuals Tuesday with felony rioting in addition to the 209 other defendants indicted on felony rioting charges earlier in February, CNN reported.

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/23/200-inauguration-day-protesters-indicted-rioting-charges/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This is one reason why Labour losing Copeland should have Jeremy Corbyn circling the plughole:

    https://medium.com/@theobertram/the-copeland-test-labours-core-vote-ddac4fb8ee#.fzovnu9bz

    Labour are making up for it by doing well in leafy remain middle/upperclass BEs like Richmon... oh wait.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited February 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,292
    Afternoon all :)

    Well, it's nice to have moved on from isnttheweatherbadbutwenorthernersaretough.com

    A tale of two constituencies and racecourses:

    Huntingdon (former MP John Major) - racing today abandoned due to strong winds.
    Sedgefield (former MP Tony Blair) - racing goes ahead.

    30 years ago (roughly), I was pounding the streets of Greenwich in the rain working for Rosie Barnes. Thoroughly miserable day but it all ended well as the Conservative vote disintegrated - in truth, Labour's vote didn't fall that much from 1983 but the Conservatives (who had run Labour close back then) slumped to a deposit-losing third (I think it was still 12.5%).

    It seemed at the time to be a big event and with the Truro by election a couple of weeks later famously got Norman Tebbit so flustered he spent a whole day attacking the Alliance which only increased the party's poll numbers.

    In the end, of course, it made no difference at all. The Alliance's own contradictions tore it apart, Margaret Thatcher won a second landslide and Rosie Barnes sank into obscurity along with the rest of the SDP though the diaspora found their way into and eventually took over both the Labour parties (Blair via the likes of David Marquand) and the Conservatives (David Cameron via the likes of Chris Grayling and Danny Finkelstein).
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    Will Labour try to capitalise on Storm Doris and the bridge shutdown in Copeland today, I wonder?

    "Imagine trying to get to Carlisle to give birth in these conditions, if the Tory candidate wins..."
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    I'm guessing Corbyn values his kneecaps ^_~
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    yes, a win is a bonus! one loss was always on the card in these tough marginals.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    AlsoIndigo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?
    Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    AlsoIndigo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?
    He's Jezza minus the 'nice old man who grows his own veg' act that seems to have some people fooled.

    If they're after sub-20% poll ratings, McDonnell's the man to do it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?
    Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.
    Yes. He might shore up confidence in general ability, even if he has his own demons for any GE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?
    Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.
    Not nearly as loved by the general membership though.

    If Corbyn was to agree a deal to put him in by May, the moderates would have a decent chance of toppling McDonnell in 2019 say.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Essexit said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?
    He's Jezza minus the 'nice old man who grows his own veg' act that seems to have some people fooled.

    If they're after sub-20% poll ratings, McDonnell's the man to do it.
    here's hoping. Then Abbot
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Alastair, thanks for that. A very good piece of analysis and a good read to boot.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited February 2017
    The fact there is even vaguely serious talk of McIRA leading Labour shows what a state the Labour Party is in. A terrorist supporting Marxist enterist leading the Labour party, the sort of people Kinnock fought to rid the party of and a million miles from the electoral successful sensible sounding Blarites.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,880
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    Please be McIRA, please. Think how well he'd go down in Birmingham, Warrington, Manchester...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    FPT
    Animal_pb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/834749224159965187

    Somehow, when we hear TSE + big coat, most of us are thinking Macklemore, not Hardy Northerner....
    I've got the Macklemore and orange pimp daddy suit.

    I might wear it at the next PB meet.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?
    Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.
    True, but the next election campaign with him as leader writes itself. Photos with Adams, photos with Livingstone, videos of quoting Mao at Osborne and throwing the little red book, uncharitable references to being in jail after Greenham Common marches, and to crown it all
    "It's about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    And this is another:

    https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/02/copeland-turning-blue-would-be-more-historic-than-you-think.html/

    Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.
    Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.

    So he's almost certainly safe.
    I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.
    Please be McIRA, please. Think how well he'd go down in Birmingham, Warrington, Manchester...
    Jezza and McDonnell paraphrasing the old saying

    "The enemy of you and me is my friend"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    edited February 2017
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpolitics
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited February 2017
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The fact there is even vaguely serious talk of McIRA leading Labour shows what a state the Labour Party is in. A terrorist supporting Marxist enterist leading the Labour party, the sort of people Kinnock fought to rid the party of and a million miles from the electoral successful sensible sounding Blarites.

    Tipped at 50/1 by me when Jeremy Corbyn first took office:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/03/antifranks-501-tip-to-be-next-labour-leader/

    But not even my best-performing longshot for next Labour leader.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpolitics
    You can see how inexperienced canvassers might get that impression. Lots of people open the door when you knock, talk to you pleasantly and say they are going to vote for you. You walk away with a warm feeling, and they got you off their doorstep in the shortest possible time, and can go back to the telly.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpolitics
    UKIP telling me they've lost. Actually they don't have the data, but they get the feeling. They don't have a postal vote operation. PVs can be as high as 40%
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    edited February 2017
    Dixie said:

    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpolitics
    UKIP telling me they've lost. Actually they don't have the data, but they get the feeling. They don't have a postal vote operation. PVs can be as high as 40%
    Well Banks, Farage and one other senior Kipper are saying they think they'll win, but I wasn't particularly talking about Stoke but the Euros, Clacton, Rochester and some GE seats, Farage just said I reckon we will win... and he bets on the results too!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.
    Success equals performance minus anticipation.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?
    What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat. I guess if people keep saying Labour have run some kind of brilliant deception, then I guess the 'spin' must work. As your comments demonstrate.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884

    Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.
    Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.

    It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.
  • GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?
    What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat. I guess if people keep saying Labour have run some kind of brilliant deception, then I guess the 'spin' must work. As your comments demonstrate.
    The vast majority of the non politically obsessed probably have no idea what the usual vote is in either constituency, if someone in a suit appears on the TV and says that its a marginal seat, they will probably believe him absent someone else yelling "Liar" around the same time.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The fact there is even vaguely serious talk of McIRA leading Labour shows what a state the Labour Party is in. A terrorist supporting Marxist enterist leading the Labour party, the sort of people Kinnock fought to rid the party of and a million miles from the electoral successful sensible sounding Blarites.

    He's the favoured successor of the young middle class hobby socialist.

    Our famiily YMCHS was somewhat surprised when his grandmother explained that his track record IRO Northern Ireland would mean those who lived through the PIRA bombing campaign of the 70s and 80s (i.e. anyone over 45) would be disinclined to vote for him.

    Actually, his granny is from Lancashire, so she put it a great deal less politely than that. And she's a Liberal Democrat.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    fabulous. But the party keep telling me they are not favourites. I know, I know, spin.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884

    Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.

    Probably busy with the movers that day. After all he has a whole house worth of personal belongings to pack up....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Harry Cole
    Wow, not a single Labour backbencher has bothered to turn up to the Commons debate about historic prosecutions of British troops. https://t.co/XMFgPeUEto
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884

    Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.

    To be fair Marr booked the UKIP leader for Sunday and who knows who will be UKIP leader come Sunday?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?
    What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat.
    So why are the party pretending otherwise? What word other than spin would you prefer, its the managed presentation of fact and opinion in order to advance a particular view or cause (eg, trying to encourage any waverers that they had better come out or else UKIP might snatch it).

    As long as outright lies are not told there's nothing disreputable about it particularly, but it is known parties try to make by-elections seem more significant than they are all the time - claiming a win in a safe seat says something about the country - and claiming they are not sure they will win is therefore noteworthy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    I don't know if there is some symbolism with the top picture...

    http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/traffic-and-weather-live-storm-doris-arrives-in-north-staffordshire/story-30157738-detail/story.html
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    At least it wasn't receiving public subsidy like the one in the old railway tunnel in North Wales.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Better not be, I have money on a Labour double!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,935
    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    The rumours could have been spread by Labour to make sure Tories who don't like the look of the weather say 'Oh well no need to bother as its 4,000 lead'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,935
    Philip_Thompson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884

    Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.

    To be fair Marr booked the UKIP leader for Sunday and who knows who will be UKIP leader come Sunday?
    Farage as interim leader?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Campaign manager’s press briefings are for entertainment only, they are not a betting guide.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?
    What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat.
    So why are the party pretending otherwise? What word other than spin would you prefer, its the managed presentation of fact and opinion in order to advance a particular view or cause (eg, trying to encourage any waverers that they had better come out or else UKIP might snatch it).

    As long as outright lies are not told there's nothing disreputable about it particularly, but it is known parties try to make by-elections seem more significant than they are all the time - claiming a win in a safe seat says something about the country - and claiming they are not sure they will win is therefore noteworthy.
    Sensible people can discern the difference, that's all I'm saying.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    What these bunker cannabis growers have failed to account for are munchies during the nuclear winter.

    Otherwise it's a fresh approach to get people through the Trump presidency.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    This is a Labour-leaning paper trying to discourage Tories from voting. Nothing more!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    FOUR thousand.

    Jesus.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    SimonStClare said:

    Campaign manager’s press briefings are for entertainment only, they are not a betting guide.

    Ain't that the truth. I'd honestly believe a regular spin doctor more than a campaign manager, they don't have the restraint of a regular spin doctor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Let us not forget that these elections are no laughing matter - babies will die, I read it online.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    rottenborough said:

    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    The rumours could have been spread by Labour to make sure Tories who don't like the look of the weather say 'Oh well no need to bother as its 4,000 lead'.
    4000 is big no room for doubt there.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    FOUR thousand.

    Jesus.
    And if Copeland is that comfortable, assume that the Tories are getting very, very close in Stoke.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.
    interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited February 2017
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.
    Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.

    It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.
    TBF, there was one in Cameron's early days, where they hammered the by-election and lost badly. It was in the news for a week, but now I'm struggling to remember which one it was.

    Ealing? "David Cameron's Conservative" ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    By the by, anyone recall if there was a reasoning th betting moved back toward Goldsmith around 0100 on the chart above?
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    SimonStClare said:

    Campaign manager’s press briefings are for entertainment only, they are not a betting guide.

    LOL. good point. MY Tory and UKIP friends are top of the party and they wouldn't bullshit me. Neither think they will win. I will let you know if they change opinion.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Dixie said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.
    interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?
    I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    FOUR thousand.

    Jesus.
    And if Copeland is that comfortable, assume that the Tories are getting very, very close in Stoke.
    I don't know if I'm getting old, but these two by-elections seem to have been some of the most chaotic and unpredictable I can recall.

    I'm sticking with Tory win for Copeland and narrow Lab hold for Stoke, but it could go anywhere.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Three new German opinion polls out yesterday tell a similar picture

    CDU/CSU in a narrow lead and squeezing AfD hard
    SPD a close 2nd and squeezing Greens and Linke hard
    FDP stable at around 6 %
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.
    interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?
    I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.
    Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    OK, Tories now saying "no comment.' in Copeland UKIP "no chance!" Pick the bones out of that.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

    They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    BannedInParis said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.
    Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.

    It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.
    TBF, there was one in Cameron's early days, where they hammered the by-election and lost badly. It was in the news for a week, but now I'm struggling to remember which one it was.

    Ealing? "David Cameron's Conservative" ?
    Ealing-Southall 3rd place.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ce9749dc-371d-11dc-9f6d-0000779fd2ac.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true#axzz4ZWCVc3ee
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    PlatoSaid said:

    Harry Cole
    Wow, not a single Labour backbencher has bothered to turn up to the Commons debate about historic prosecutions of British troops. https://t.co/XMFgPeUEto

    They hardly ever turn up to any defence-related debates.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Dixie said:

    OK, Tories now saying "no comment.' in Copeland UKIP "no chance!" Pick the bones out of that.

    UKIP no chance in Stoke.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited February 2017
    isam said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.
    interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?
    I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.
    Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!
    Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    dr_spyn said:

    BannedInParis said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.

    Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.

    The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.
    You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?

    The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
    Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.
    Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.

    It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.
    TBF, there was one in Cameron's early days, where they hammered the by-election and lost badly. It was in the news for a week, but now I'm struggling to remember which one it was.

    Ealing? "David Cameron's Conservative" ?
    Ealing-Southall 3rd place.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ce9749dc-371d-11dc-9f6d-0000779fd2ac.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true#axzz4ZWCVc3ee
    Yeah, by-elections are (typically) tomorrow's fish paper.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    AlsoIndigo said:

    .

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

    They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
    Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    edited February 2017
    AlsoIndigo said:

    .

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

    They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
    If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.
    You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
    EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    https://medium.com/@theobertram/the-copeland-test-labours-core-vote-ddac4fb8ee#.xa8z7q31t

    Labour in deep deep poo
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    DanSmith said:

    isam said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.
    interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?
    I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.
    Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!
    Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.
    "Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge"

    Not really

    Saying Brexit and Trump were "the obvious result" is crazy
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    dr_spyn said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    .

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

    They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
    Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?
    A further three men, aged 27, 30 and 45, all from Somerset, were arrested on suspicion of cannabis production and human trafficking offences.

  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    AlsoIndigo said:

    dr_spyn said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    .

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

    They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
    Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?
    A further three men, aged 27, 30 and 45, all from Somerset, were arrested on suspicion of cannabis production and human trafficking offences.

    Teens are probably Vietnamese would be my guess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited February 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    .

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

    They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
    Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?
    The large scale production is pretty much all tended to illegals immigrants who are trafficked to the UK and live at the grow, while the money men never go anywhere near the actual production locations.

    They say teens, might be, might also be that if you are trafficked to the UK you will be told if you ever get arrested claim you are a teenager.

    So these busts shut down that location, arrest a handful of illegals, and the cycle starts up again somewhere else.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    AlsoIndigo said:

    .

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526

    Just for personal consumption officer...

    Quite a clever place to do this.
    Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.

    They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.
    If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.
    You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
    EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.

    I doubt this sort of facility shares supply with anyone else, it probably has its own substation, if its meant to be disused and someone maintaining the substation sees the meter going around, eyebrows might be raised.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,606
    Dixie said:

    Dixie said:

    OK, Tories now saying "no comment.' in Copeland UKIP "no chance!" Pick the bones out of that.

    UKIP no chance in Stoke.
    Really?! Early call
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    isam said:

    DanSmith said:

    isam said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    DanSmith said:

    Dixie said:

    Yorkcity said:

    DanSmith said:

    Goupillon said:

    Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:

    "Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.

    Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."

    http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds

    Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.
    Looks like it with ease .Game over.
    blimey. What are you basing it on?
    Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.
    interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?
    I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.
    Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!
    Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.
    "Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge"

    Not really

    Saying Brexit and Trump were "the obvious result" is crazy
    There's a difference between "on a knife edge" and "the obvious result". The polls did show Brexit to be on a knife edge (especially during the postal vote period before the murder of Jo Cox) but people didn't believe the polls.
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