politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chances are that following the betting on by-election days won’t tell you anything and could be costly
Above is a chart showing the Betfair exchange prices on the day of December’s Richmond Park by-election. As can be seen those who were following the betting for their inspiration would have got it wrong until about 11:30 p.m.
Comments
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Ah yes Dunfermline 2006.
When Charles Kennedy and Mark Oaten ran for the leadership and the shit hit the erm fan.0 -
Betting markets tell you what gamblers think is going to happen, not what is going to happen.
I'd be inclined to take a little more notice of price movements in Stoke Central, which is a relatively easy seat for parties to get a handle on owing to its compact size, than Copeland, which is the reverse. But I won't be taking very much notice of either.
I'll mainly be looking out for off-the-record comments by Lib Dems.0 -
second, like Labour in Copeland0
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Well down the running like a Green candidate in Copeland.0
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interesting that the Dunfermline by-election of February 2007 (actually Dunfermline and West Fife in February 2006) went from Lib Dems getting 35%+ in 2006 and 2010 to LOSING THEIR DEPOSITS in 2015.
#BigLeagueLosers0 -
what time are the results expected?0
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This is one reason why Labour losing Copeland should have Jeremy Corbyn circling the plughole:
https://medium.com/@theobertram/the-copeland-test-labours-core-vote-ddac4fb8ee#.fzovnu9bz0 -
There was a suggestion that Copeland might defer until Friday if things got 'bad'. Here in North Lancs it's just a bit breezy, nothing special really.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Lots of people who thought they'd get away with it are moaning like crazy now.
"A total of 214 people involved in protests on Inauguration Day in downtown Washington have been indicted on felony rioting charges.
A grand jury in D.C. charged five individuals Tuesday with felony rioting in addition to the 209 other defendants indicted on felony rioting charges earlier in February, CNN reported.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/02/23/200-inauguration-day-protesters-indicted-rioting-charges/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social0 -
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Labour are making up for it by doing well in leafy remain middle/upperclass BEs like Richmon... oh wait.AlastairMeeks said:This is one reason why Labour losing Copeland should have Jeremy Corbyn circling the plughole:
https://medium.com/@theobertram/the-copeland-test-labours-core-vote-ddac4fb8ee#.fzovnu9bz0 -
You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.0 -
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Afternoon all
Well, it's nice to have moved on from isnttheweatherbadbutwenorthernersaretough.com
A tale of two constituencies and racecourses:
Huntingdon (former MP John Major) - racing today abandoned due to strong winds.
Sedgefield (former MP Tony Blair) - racing goes ahead.
30 years ago (roughly), I was pounding the streets of Greenwich in the rain working for Rosie Barnes. Thoroughly miserable day but it all ended well as the Conservative vote disintegrated - in truth, Labour's vote didn't fall that much from 1983 but the Conservatives (who had run Labour close back then) slumped to a deposit-losing third (I think it was still 12.5%).
It seemed at the time to be a big event and with the Truro by election a couple of weeks later famously got Norman Tebbit so flustered he spent a whole day attacking the Alliance which only increased the party's poll numbers.
In the end, of course, it made no difference at all. The Alliance's own contradictions tore it apart, Margaret Thatcher won a second landslide and Rosie Barnes sank into obscurity along with the rest of the SDP though the diaspora found their way into and eventually took over both the Labour parties (Blair via the likes of David Marquand) and the Conservatives (David Cameron via the likes of Chris Grayling and Danny Finkelstein).0 -
Will Labour try to capitalise on Storm Doris and the bridge shutdown in Copeland today, I wonder?
"Imagine trying to get to Carlisle to give birth in these conditions, if the Tory candidate wins..."0 -
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.0 -
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.0 -
I'm guessing Corbyn values his kneecaps ^_~TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.0 -
yes, a win is a bonus! one loss was always on the card in these tough marginals.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.0 -
McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.0 -
Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.AlsoIndigo said:
McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.0 -
He's Jezza minus the 'nice old man who grows his own veg' act that seems to have some people fooled.AlsoIndigo said:
McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.
If they're after sub-20% poll ratings, McDonnell's the man to do it.0 -
Yes. He might shore up confidence in general ability, even if he has his own demons for any GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.AlsoIndigo said:
McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.0 -
Not nearly as loved by the general membership though.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.AlsoIndigo said:
McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.
If Corbyn was to agree a deal to put him in by May, the moderates would have a decent chance of toppling McDonnell in 2019 say.0 -
here's hoping. Then AbbotEssexit said:
He's Jezza minus the 'nice old man who grows his own veg' act that seems to have some people fooled.AlsoIndigo said:
McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.
If they're after sub-20% poll ratings, McDonnell's the man to do it.0 -
Alastair, thanks for that. A very good piece of analysis and a good read to boot.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.0 -
The fact there is even vaguely serious talk of McIRA leading Labour shows what a state the Labour Party is in. A terrorist supporting Marxist enterist leading the Labour party, the sort of people Kinnock fought to rid the party of and a million miles from the electoral successful sensible sounding Blarites.0
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Please be McIRA, please. Think how well he'd go down in Birmingham, Warrington, Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.0 -
FPT
I've got the Macklemore and orange pimp daddy suit.Animal_pb said:
Somehow, when we hear TSE + big coat, most of us are thinking Macklemore, not Hardy Northerner....TheScreamingEagles said:
I might wear it at the next PB meet.0 -
True, but the next election campaign with him as leader writes itself. Photos with Adams, photos with Livingstone, videos of quoting Mao at Osborne and throwing the little red book, uncharitable references to being in jail after Greenham Common marches, and to crown it allTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes. But he's a bit more competent than Corbyn.AlsoIndigo said:
McIRA must be just about as electorally poisonous at Jezza ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.
"It's about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA."0 -
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
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Jezza and McDonnell paraphrasing the old sayingSandpit said:
Please be McIRA, please. Think how well he'd go down in Birmingham, Warrington, Manchester...TheScreamingEagles said:
I think his opponents might have changed. Yes I'm looking at you John McDonnell.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on how well-organised his party opponents are this time.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, yes, but this is a party leader who refused to stand down when two-thirds of his MPs and most of his shadow cabinet said they had no confidence in him. So a little by-election loss in a county far away of which he knows nothing, and on a low turnout during a storm, is unlikely to shift him.AlastairMeeks said:
So he's almost certainly safe.
"The enemy of you and me is my friend"0 -
You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.0 -
UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpoliticskle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.0 -
Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.kle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.0 -
Tipped at 50/1 by me when Jeremy Corbyn first took office:FrancisUrquhart said:The fact there is even vaguely serious talk of McIRA leading Labour shows what a state the Labour Party is in. A terrorist supporting Marxist enterist leading the Labour party, the sort of people Kinnock fought to rid the party of and a million miles from the electoral successful sensible sounding Blarites.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/10/03/antifranks-501-tip-to-be-next-labour-leader/
But not even my best-performing longshot for next Labour leader.0 -
You can see how inexperienced canvassers might get that impression. Lots of people open the door when you knock, talk to you pleasantly and say they are going to vote for you. You walk away with a warm feeling, and they got you off their doorstep in the shortest possible time, and can go back to the telly.isam said:
UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpoliticskle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.0 -
UKIP telling me they've lost. Actually they don't have the data, but they get the feeling. They don't have a postal vote operation. PVs can be as high as 40%isam said:
UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpoliticskle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.0 -
Well Banks, Farage and one other senior Kipper are saying they think they'll win, but I wasn't particularly talking about Stoke but the Euros, Clacton, Rochester and some GE seats, Farage just said I reckon we will win... and he bets on the results too!Dixie said:
UKIP telling me they've lost. Actually they don't have the data, but they get the feeling. They don't have a postal vote operation. PVs can be as high as 40%isam said:
UKIP just say they think they'll win! #honestpoliticskle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.0 -
Success equals performance minus anticipation.Jason said:
Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.kle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.0 -
What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat. I guess if people keep saying Labour have run some kind of brilliant deception, then I guess the 'spin' must work. As your comments demonstrate.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.0 -
This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884
Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.0 -
Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.Jason said:
Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.kle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.0 -
Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
The vast majority of the non politically obsessed probably have no idea what the usual vote is in either constituency, if someone in a suit appears on the TV and says that its a marginal seat, they will probably believe him absent someone else yelling "Liar" around the same time.Jason said:
What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat. I guess if people keep saying Labour have run some kind of brilliant deception, then I guess the 'spin' must work. As your comments demonstrate.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.0 -
He's the favoured successor of the young middle class hobby socialist.FrancisUrquhart said:The fact there is even vaguely serious talk of McIRA leading Labour shows what a state the Labour Party is in. A terrorist supporting Marxist enterist leading the Labour party, the sort of people Kinnock fought to rid the party of and a million miles from the electoral successful sensible sounding Blarites.
Our famiily YMCHS was somewhat surprised when his grandmother explained that his track record IRO Northern Ireland would mean those who lived through the PIRA bombing campaign of the 70s and 80s (i.e. anyone over 45) would be disinclined to vote for him.
Actually, his granny is from Lancashire, so she put it a great deal less politely than that. And she's a Liberal Democrat.0 -
fabulous. But the party keep telling me they are not favourites. I know, I know, spin.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
Probably busy with the movers that day. After all he has a whole house worth of personal belongings to pack up....AlastairMeeks said:This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884
Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.0 -
Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...0 -
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
Harry Cole
Wow, not a single Labour backbencher has bothered to turn up to the Commons debate about historic prosecutions of British troops. https://t.co/XMFgPeUEto0 -
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
0 -
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
To be fair Marr booked the UKIP leader for Sunday and who knows who will be UKIP leader come Sunday?AlastairMeeks said:This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884
Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.0 -
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
So why are the party pretending otherwise? What word other than spin would you prefer, its the managed presentation of fact and opinion in order to advance a particular view or cause (eg, trying to encourage any waverers that they had better come out or else UKIP might snatch it).Jason said:
What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
As long as outright lies are not told there's nothing disreputable about it particularly, but it is known parties try to make by-elections seem more significant than they are all the time - claiming a win in a safe seat says something about the country - and claiming they are not sure they will win is therefore noteworthy.0 -
I don't know if there is some symbolism with the top picture...
http://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/traffic-and-weather-live-storm-doris-arrives-in-north-staffordshire/story-30157738-detail/story.html0 -
At least it wasn't receiving public subsidy like the one in the old railway tunnel in North Wales.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...0 -
Better not be, I have money on a Labour double!DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
The rumours could have been spread by Labour to make sure Tories who don't like the look of the weather say 'Oh well no need to bother as its 4,000 lead'.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
Farage as interim leader?Philip_Thompson said:
To be fair Marr booked the UKIP leader for Sunday and who knows who will be UKIP leader come Sunday?AlastairMeeks said:This pre-briefing doesn't suggest confidence in the UKIP camp:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/834761791100026884
Contingency planning for the aftermath of failure is never a good sign.0 -
Campaign manager’s press briefings are for entertainment only, they are not a betting guide.0
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Sensible people can discern the difference, that's all I'm saying.kle4 said:
So why are the party pretending otherwise? What word other than spin would you prefer, its the managed presentation of fact and opinion in order to advance a particular view or cause (eg, trying to encourage any waverers that they had better come out or else UKIP might snatch it).Jason said:
What does it matter? He could call it anything he likes. Most sensible people know it's a safe Labour seat.TheScreamingEagles said:
You missed Jack Dromey calling Stoke Central a very tight marginal ?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
As long as outright lies are not told there's nothing disreputable about it particularly, but it is known parties try to make by-elections seem more significant than they are all the time - claiming a win in a safe seat says something about the country - and claiming they are not sure they will win is therefore noteworthy.0 -
What these bunker cannabis growers have failed to account for are munchies during the nuclear winter.
Otherwise it's a fresh approach to get people through the Trump presidency.0 -
This is a Labour-leaning paper trying to discourage Tories from voting. Nothing more!Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
FOUR thousand.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Jesus.0 -
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
Ain't that the truth. I'd honestly believe a regular spin doctor more than a campaign manager, they don't have the restraint of a regular spin doctor.SimonStClare said:Campaign manager’s press briefings are for entertainment only, they are not a betting guide.
0 -
Let us not forget that these elections are no laughing matter - babies will die, I read it online.0
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4000 is big no room for doubt there.rottenborough said:
The rumours could have been spread by Labour to make sure Tories who don't like the look of the weather say 'Oh well no need to bother as its 4,000 lead'.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
And if Copeland is that comfortable, assume that the Tories are getting very, very close in Stoke.Pulpstar said:
FOUR thousand.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Jesus.0 -
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
TBF, there was one in Cameron's early days, where they hammered the by-election and lost badly. It was in the news for a week, but now I'm struggling to remember which one it was.kle4 said:
Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.Jason said:
Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.kle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.
Ealing? "David Cameron's Conservative" ?0 -
By the by, anyone recall if there was a reasoning th betting moved back toward Goldsmith around 0100 on the chart above?0
-
LOL. good point. MY Tory and UKIP friends are top of the party and they wouldn't bullshit me. Neither think they will win. I will let you know if they change opinion.SimonStClare said:Campaign manager’s press briefings are for entertainment only, they are not a betting guide.
0 -
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
I don't know if I'm getting old, but these two by-elections seem to have been some of the most chaotic and unpredictable I can recall.DanSmith said:
And if Copeland is that comfortable, assume that the Tories are getting very, very close in Stoke.Pulpstar said:
FOUR thousand.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Jesus.
I'm sticking with Tory win for Copeland and narrow Lab hold for Stoke, but it could go anywhere.0 -
Three new German opinion polls out yesterday tell a similar picture
CDU/CSU in a narrow lead and squeezing AfD hard
SPD a close 2nd and squeezing Greens and Linke hard
FDP stable at around 6 %0 -
Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!DanSmith said:
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
OK, Tories now saying "no comment.' in Copeland UKIP "no chance!" Pick the bones out of that.0
-
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.0 -
Ealing-Southall 3rd place.BannedInParis said:
TBF, there was one in Cameron's early days, where they hammered the by-election and lost badly. It was in the news for a week, but now I'm struggling to remember which one it was.kle4 said:
Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.Jason said:
Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.kle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.
Ealing? "David Cameron's Conservative" ?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ce9749dc-371d-11dc-9f6d-0000779fd2ac.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true#axzz4ZWCVc3ee0 -
Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.isam said:
Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!DanSmith said:
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds0 -
They hardly ever turn up to any defence-related debates.PlatoSaid said:Harry Cole
Wow, not a single Labour backbencher has bothered to turn up to the Commons debate about historic prosecutions of British troops. https://t.co/XMFgPeUEto0 -
Yeah, by-elections are (typically) tomorrow's fish paper.dr_spyn said:
Ealing-Southall 3rd place.BannedInParis said:
TBF, there was one in Cameron's early days, where they hammered the by-election and lost badly. It was in the news for a week, but now I'm struggling to remember which one it was.kle4 said:
Spin is constant, but some spin is more blatant and in need of calling out than others. Calling Stoke a tight marginal, when by any assessment of its history and composition it should be safe when Lab are in opposition in particular, is especially egregious an example of spin, and any attempt to portray it a triumph under difficult circumstances the same.Jason said:
Yeah, I was just saying TSE spins things ad nauseum, I know it's his job to do that. Does it really matter how the Tories and Labour have tried to spin these elections? Unless there's a major shock and UKIP take Stoke and the Tories take Copeland, they'll be forgotten about by the end of next week. Richmond faded after a couple of days.kle4 said:
You missed Labours campaign coordinator calling stoke a tight marginal?Jason said:
The only spinning I see is from you, TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to hand it to Corbyn's spinners.
Two Lab holds tonight and it will feel like the Blair landslide of 1997.
The Tories have overdone their changes, and Labour downplayed enormously, the spin has been immense.
It's relevant for the Tories because if they overplay their hand and fail, it will puncture their own narrative - in itself nothing so small is significant, but it adds to the cumulative narrative of politics in both cases.
Ealing? "David Cameron's Conservative" ?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ce9749dc-371d-11dc-9f6d-0000779fd2ac.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true#axzz4ZWCVc3ee0 -
Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.0 -
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.
0 -
https://medium.com/@theobertram/the-copeland-test-labours-core-vote-ddac4fb8ee#.xa8z7q31t
Labour in deep deep poo0 -
"Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge"DanSmith said:
Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.isam said:
Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!DanSmith said:
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Not really
Saying Brexit and Trump were "the obvious result" is crazy0 -
A further three men, aged 27, 30 and 45, all from Somerset, were arrested on suspicion of cannabis production and human trafficking offences.dr_spyn said:
Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
0 -
Teens are probably Vietnamese would be my guess.AlsoIndigo said:
A further three men, aged 27, 30 and 45, all from Somerset, were arrested on suspicion of cannabis production and human trafficking offences.dr_spyn said:
Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.0 -
The large scale production is pretty much all tended to illegals immigrants who are trafficked to the UK and live at the grow, while the money men never go anywhere near the actual production locations.dr_spyn said:
Odd thing, 3 teens of no fixed abode arrested at the site. Who put the money up for the equipment?AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
They say teens, might be, might also be that if you are trafficked to the UK you will be told if you ever get arrested claim you are a teenager.
So these busts shut down that location, arrest a handful of illegals, and the cycle starts up again somewhere else.0 -
I doubt this sort of facility shares supply with anyone else, it probably has its own substation, if its meant to be disused and someone maintaining the substation sees the meter going around, eyebrows might be raised.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If that's how they've been caught then they are utter idiots.AlsoIndigo said:.
They probably got erm.. grassed.. up by the electric company, those big lights use a ton of power, and cycling them to match a day/night cycle is a bit obvious, and one of the thing electric companies are asked to look out for.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Quite a clever place to do this.FrancisUrquhart said:Nuclear bunker raid finds £1m cannabis farm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-39064526
Just for personal consumption officer...
Heat sources will be well screened from thermal cameras etc.
You bypass the meter, *not that I know anything about this*.
EDIT to add, they should now be using LED's as they use much less power and produce far less heat.0 -
There's a difference between "on a knife edge" and "the obvious result". The polls did show Brexit to be on a knife edge (especially during the postal vote period before the murder of Jo Cox) but people didn't believe the polls.isam said:
"Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge"DanSmith said:
Betting odds are not predictors (as OGH has pointed out on numerous occasions). Polls always showed Brexit to be on a knife edge.isam said:
Except they were about 90% unlikely to happen at close of polling!DanSmith said:
I got the Tory majority wrong (and learnt my lesson from that). Brexit and Trump were not in any way surprising results.Dixie said:
interesting philosophy. Like Brexit and Trump and Tory majority you mean?DanSmith said:
Always assume the most obvious result will happen in politics.Dixie said:
blimey. What are you basing it on?Yorkcity said:
Looks like it with ease .Game over.DanSmith said:
Is going to be a comfortable Tory win.Goupillon said:Posted recently on Whitehaven News live feed:
"Turnout is hard to judge at this stage, but it could make all the difference to who wins and who loses.
Rumours are rife that the Conservatives think they will take the seat by 4,000 votes.....but we'll have to wait and see."
http://www.whitehavennews.co.uk/news/HAPPENING-LIVE-The-latest-from-the-Copeland-by-election-c0781a8d-a1cf-4dc7-9a2d-d11fdbcf4028-ds
Not really
Saying Brexit and Trump were "the obvious result" is crazy0
