politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leade
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out
At the weekend I had a bet at 9/4 with William Hill that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader to exit his post. That’s since tightened to 6/4 which still looks a good punt.
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That said, UKIP only seem to have pillocks to choose from as leader. Give it up guys. You've had your moment in the sun. There's nothing left to do, nothing left to achieve. Go home.
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/15022805.Tory_councillor_resigns_position/
The only news article in the local paper was one where Labour were campaigning against a possible school closure in the ward, as well as the introduction of fortnightly bin collections. There's also an ongoing row about proposed rising parking charges in the town centre. Maybe these are what swung the vote behind Lab this time - straightforward local politics resulting a a win for the local Opposition.
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/15100870.Leaflet_sparks_spat_in_lead_up_to_ballot/
You really couldn't make it up
Time for Dacre to answer some questions
https://twitter.com/tonyblairoffice
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/170686
Interesting that it seems to be getting more support in Tory areas so far:
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=170686
I did back myself at 100/1 to win Islington South and Finsbury Park, but pulled out before the selection. Not the shrewdest bet ever placed!!
https://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/winklebury-by-election
824 Lab, 4742 Con, LD 42. Turnout 28.5%
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/supreme-courts-ruling-foreign-spouses-breach-human-rights/
This morning the court upheld a rule that forbids British citizens bringing a foreign spouse into the country unless they (the British citizen, not the foreign spouse) is earning at least £18,600 a year (or £22,400 if they have one or more children)
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
My son who married a Canadian 18 months ago took over 15 months to get the ok to join his wife in Canada from New Zealand but she has to sponsor him for three years so that he cannot claim any benefits from the government
I reckon he doesn't stand, but holds back on an endorsement at this time.
Any other guesses?
Suzanne Evans to step into the breach?
If Corbyn is still there she wins, no matter when the election is and if it's in 2020 she's there until at least 2022.
All four of the others could be gone by that time.
Nicola Sturgeon advises senior SNP figures: Don’t call it ‘indyref2’
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15107713.Nicola_Sturgeon_advises_senior_SNP_figures__Don___t_call_it____indyref2___/
so it's 'IndyRefNew'......
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_2ndtourelectionpresidentielle-6mai2012.pdf
On page 8 of this report they break down the abstentionists by age group.
18-24 ans: 28%
25-34 ans: 24%
35-44 ans: 24%
45-59 ans: 17%
60+ ans: 13%
So while the elderly turn out more, the gap doesn't seem to be anywhere near as much as in the UK, so the elderly vote turnout will probably help Fillon less than it would help May for example.
1. The income of the foreign spouse is not taken into consideration abroad, neither are the earning prospects or any job offer in the UK.
2. Income earned outside the UK by the applicant or the spouse is not considered in the vast number of cases
3. Savings that have not been deposited in a international bank for at least 6 months are not considered
3. Couples living abroad which were married, and indeed had children before the act was even considered, and rightly expected to move back to the UK at a later date, are unable to relocate to the UK without passing the test
4. Couples with a UK applicant and UK children but foreign mother allows the applicant and children to move to the UK and having to leave the spouse behind.
5. EU (Non-UK) applicants with non-EU spouses don't have to meet the requirements.
For the full monty check out https://www.jcwi.org.uk/policy/reports/impact-children-family-migration-rules
To quote from the judgement:
There can be no doubt that the MIR has caused, and will continue to cause, significant hardship to many thousands of couples who have good reasons for wanting to make their lives together in this country, and to their children. There are several types of family, not illustrated in the cases before us, upon whom the MIR will have a particularly harsh effect. These include British citizens who have been living and working abroad, have married or formed stable relationships there, and now wish to return to their home country. Many of these relationships will have been formed before the new Rules were introduced or even publicly proposed. They also include couples who formed their relationships before the changes in the Rules were introduced and who had every expectation that the foreign partner would be allowed to come here. Of particular concern is the impact upon the children of these couples, many or even most of whom will be British citizens themselves.
The current system is a mess, full of anomalies, for example with regard to non-EU spouses of other (non-UK) EU countries, who are allowed to settle in the UK with no permission required. It's also not allowed to discriminate against a first-generation immigrant wanting to bring an arranged wife from abroad, as against, oh I dunno, a random example, someone born in Britain of British parents but who works abroad for a while and gets married to someone he meets there. Can't think why I chose that as an example.
Also, income earned abroad or even a job offer in the UK isn't enough to satisfy authorities. Don't start on self-employment or company directors either, that's another nightmare.
On the face of it, the majority of those who were petitioning the Surpreme Court were people who would clearly be a burden to the State.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/22/supreme-court-ruling-due-challenge-foreign-spouse-income-limit2/
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
Bliar doesn't get to walk away smelling of roses, although his ire at the Daily Mail does seem quite reasonable if the facts are as he stated.
There is a vacancy for a party on the centre-right but it needs a leader who can deal with the big egos and stop the in-fighting.
Nuttall has been a fool for telling lies or exaggerating, these days everything can be checked and if you're involved in politics there are people who watch you closely and listen to everything you say and then check.
It's much easier just to tell the truth at all times and be thought boring, after a while people will begin to respect your honesty.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
Going out for an hour just now, so if any questions I'll deal with them when I return.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2017/feb/22/they-dont-care-about-us-the-anger-and-apathy-behind-the-stoke-byelection-video
Interesting piece on the Nuttall phenomenon.
Former terror law watchdog Lord Carlile said al-Harith had 'plainly' been a terrorist.
He said the Government may have been right to pay the money to protect state secrets
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4248464/Former-Guantanamo-detainee-plainly-terrorist.html
14:09 Tony Blair’s statement about Fiddler/al-Harith case and the Daily Mail includes a sentence accusing the paper of running entitled: “Still Think He Wasn’t A Danger, Mr Blair? Fury at Labour government’s £1m compensation for innocent Brit.” (See 12.52pm.)
Blair was wrong about that. That headline is from the Sun.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/22/pmqs-may-corbyn-ivan-rogers--eu-ambassador-ivan-rogers-questions-by-commons-brexit-committee-politics-live
With the good results announced by Lloyds today, it would be a good time for the government to offload a large portion of their remaining shares
The Bolt Report
WATCH: Islamic community leader @keysartrad says beating women is 'a last resort'. Live on #TheBoltReport on @SkyNewsAust https://t.co/ZsWICdgbbR
As an aside, how after all the cuts to local government budgets, we still have two brigades in Sussex is astonishing. Two sets of chief officers, two lots of HQ staff, two lots of procurement policies, two training schools, two sets of standard operating procedures. The waste is appalling. I know how it has come about and it is not only empire defence at Chief Officer level the local authorities are as much to blame with councilors defending their own turf and power bases, but it really isn't good enough. Scarce resources are being sucked away from service delivery into HQs that are 50% unnecessary. The police forces in Sussex were forced into amalgamation in 1968, that the fire brigades continue to be separate nearly fifty years later is absurd.
So we are basically where we were thought to be before Brexit. I heard the Governor explaining that this is because of the action taken by the BoE in light of the vote. IIRC that amounted to a 0.25% cut in interest rates and a suggestion (not yet acted on so far as I am aware) that we might have some more QE. Not his most convincing statement.
On the whole, I would be against giving the office of PCC greater scope at this time. The role has yet to bed in and prove itself effective in the job that it has now, I think it would be a bad idea to give people who are struggling with their present job more responsibilities.
£4,000 a term today.
https://twitter.com/skymarkwhite/status/834409455257268224
I was in the last year that got their uni fees paid for, my father often observed Uni cost him less than schooling me did.
By way of comparison, the Conservatives have lost 800 seats since 2010.
http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/22/media-hottakes-wed-see-chronicles-narnia-released-year/#.WK2iD67RkAQ.twitter
"The American Conservative: “Narnia and the Problem of Borders”
By not effectively maintaining border security, King Tirian ensured his nation would be invaded and plundered by the Calormenes. Also, Archenland should’ve been Narnia’s Benedict Option.
The Atlantic: “How World War II Shaped Narnia”
One of those very comprehensive and thoroughly researched articles that’s so long it’s divided up by roman numerals. It’s fascinating, but you have to go to class at some point. Most of your social media friends will share this article after reading about a third of the way through, and nod sagaciously when asked about it.
Breitbart: “Narnia Ignored Calormene Jihad, Innocent People Died”
The nation should’ve gotten smart and gotten tough. Also, Soros would’ve funded the Calormenes.
BuzzFeed: “20 Times Eustace and Jill Almost Kissed”
A series of GIFs with inconsistent formatting obviously poached from Tumblr. About ten of them can be viewed as vaguely romantic, if you stretch the definition...
That'll make it look very good indeed and I think the model may well be copied.
Essentially it is grammar schooling outwith the state.
Happy Birthday Mr. Washington! #OTD George Washington was born in 1732. #GW ranked second in our #cspanPOTUSsurvey https://t.co/ECS06QmAiC https://t.co/KN6ISGwXsy
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/02/bbc-glories-death/
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/deputy_assistant_commissioner_cr
etc.
The private day schools have become an arms race of facilities, seeing fees inflation of so,etching like 10-12% per year for the las two decades. The public boarding schools are even worse, fees upwards of £30k mean they're now full of mainly foreign students from China, the Middle East and Russia. The rich locals here in the sandpit all try and get their kids into the British public schools.
Even if you believe the petition will never be genuinely considered (as is the case with most, and some may even deserve that), politicians and officials go through the motions with such things so they can be appear to have met people half way.
I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.