Basically, for all the optimistic blether on here, we remain in a parlous state in terms of the public finances. The other aspect of the business rates issue is the decoupling of Government from supporting local authorities via the Revenue Support Grant is predicated on Councils gaining access to business rates paid in their area. If businesses pressurise the Government to reduce their business rates liabilities, the plan for Councils to become fully self-financing in 2019-20 will be in big trouble.
Who cares on here though - as long as the Conservatives win Stoke and Copeland - that's all that matters.
Labour losing Stoke to UKIP would be grim, but probably survivable for Corbyn. He could blame Brexit. A loss to the Tories would be unthinkable, and must surely trigger a proper revolt, rather than the half arsed coups that have gone before.
What price do you think UKIP should be to come 2nd and to come 3rd Richard?
I'd reckon something like Evens 2nd and 7/4 3rd. (I think the market odds on them winning are too short, though, so you'd need to adjust if you think I'm wrong on that).
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Believe !
So long as UKIP don't win either, or I'm going to the poorhouse.
If Labour win both Copeland and Stoke, Corbyn is safe for the time being although there are plenty more pitfalls ahead. If Labour lose Copeland to the Tories and win Stoke, he will be wounded and it might start up a new campaign to oust him. If Labour lose Copeland to the Tories and Stoke to UKIP then he is in serious trouble and if he doesn't resign over it, he will be removed later in the year. If Labour lose both Copeland and Stoke to the Tories, Corbyn is dead in the water and by Sunday at the latest, he will be gone or at the very least it will be announced that he is going.
With a better opposition, maybe. As it is, Corbyn isn't talking about business rates and he can't talk about the Guantanamo British detainee because he would have supported his release, and subsequent compensation.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Still, it was good to see her supporting that plucky upper sixth student.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much just into that visit, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
I think that works. I suspect she must have thought pushing UKIP into third place is a possibility, plus a split UKIP/Tory vote helps Labour keep Stoke and keeps Corbyn in place
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
If the Tories overtake UKIP and take second it certainly won't
Labour losing Stoke to UKIP would be grim, but probably survivable for Corbyn. He could blame Brexit. A loss to the Tories would be unthinkable, and must surely trigger a proper revolt, rather than the half arsed coups that have gone before.
Yes. A Copeland Tory and Stoke UKIP is survival for Corbyn, even though it shouldn't be. A Stoke Tory would be a disaster for Jezza. We blues need him to stay so for me a UKIP Stoke and Lab Copeland with swing to blues is probably the best result.
What price do you think UKIP should be to come 2nd and to come 3rd Richard?
I'd reckon something like Evens 2nd and 7/4 3rd. (I think the market odds on them winning are too short, though, so you'd need to adjust if you think I'm wrong on that).
The market says 28% 1st, but lets say they are too short and call it 26%
Shadsy, when you boil it down to 100% makes them 11.7% to be 4th
Your 2nd and 3rd prices come to 86.5% so we need to get them down to the remaining 63%.. a crude multiplication by 0.73 makes it 36.5% and 26.3%
That makes UKIP worth 10.1 on SPINs 25/10
(unless you think they are genuinely 86.5% to come 2nd or 3rd, which with Shadsy's 11.7% to come 4th would make them 54/1 to win it!)
Completely off topic, I was just working on some stuff and (silly boy) the phrase "I want to be a popczar" popped into my head as a song scarily and currently relevant for D. Trump. Was that because I'm listening to Charles Ives, or just native weirdness?
The proper original lyrics are by JAMIE CULLUM. Credit where credit's due :
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Maybe she just likes to annoy and wind up her opponents, whether it's campaigning in their safe seats or popping up in the House of Lords during the Brexit debate.
Absurd tweet, quibbles over business rates and 1 detainee nothing like crashing out of ERM
Yes, it's completely bonkers. The business rates problem will be smoothed over with more transitional relief, and the Jamal al-Harith affair is murky, will soon be forgotten anyway, and in any case is more Labour's problem than Mrs May's.
There are some PB Tories on here who really seem to have it in for PM May, so I'm intrigued, who would you want as PM out of the current crop of Tory MPs? Or is it just because Corbyn is so bad that you feel you can make trouble without any real comebacks?
Completely off topic, I was just working on some stuff and (silly boy) the phrase "I want to be a popczar" popped into my head as a song scarily and currently relevant for D. Trump. Was that because I'm listening to Charles Ives, or just native weirdness?
The proper original lyrics are by JAMIE CULLUM. Credit where credit's due :
Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.
got to be worth a flutter
Yes, I took the opportunity to lay any other on the double and back Tory on the stoke market for a larger profit. (I'd done the reverse a week or two ago where I laid of LD and Tory on stoke)
A Tory or LD victory in stoke could be the best result for us pbers as we're likely to get renewed activity on next lab leader and possibly a ukip leadership event too.
There are some PB Tories on here who really seem to have it in for PM May, so I'm intrigued, who would you want as PM out of the current crop of Tory MPs? Or is it just because Corbyn is so bad that you feel you can make trouble without any real comebacks?
Some of us are members of the Provisional Wing of Continuity Cameron Army, we'd like Dave back.
Governments make bad decisions when there's no effective opposition to hold them to account, which ultimately screws the governing party long term.
If Corbyn is going to hold her to account, some of us will.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
There are some PB Tories on here who really seem to have it in for PM May, so I'm intrigued, who would you want as PM out of the current crop of Tory MPs? Or is it just because Corbyn is so bad that you feel you can make trouble without any real comebacks?
You are forgetting that we are all PB Tories, comrade!
However I'd like to see Osborne as the next leader, if only because the explosions we'd see from Mr Brooke and Mr Llama.
There are some PB Tories on here who really seem to have it in for PM May, so I'm intrigued, who would you want as PM out of the current crop of Tory MPs? Or is it just because Corbyn is so bad that you feel you can make trouble without any real comebacks?
Good luck getting an answer to that! With some I suspect a thwarted sense of entitlement the previous regime pandered to.
Seeing as this is a sight utterly obsessed with making predictions, I offer my own. Both of these by-elections will be long forgotten by the end of next week, if not sooner.
(This post may seem very prescient in an hour, or utterly dumb.)
The rumour is there is up to seven planets in that system. Undoubtedly they will go overboard with speculation about being habitable, but it is around a red dwarf star and any planet would be bathed in X-rays and UV radiation.
There are some PB Tories on here who really seem to have it in for PM May, so I'm intrigued, who would you want as PM out of the current crop of Tory MPs? Or is it just because Corbyn is so bad that you feel you can make trouble without any real comebacks?
You are forgetting that we are all PB Tories, comrade!
However I'd like to see Osborne as the next leader, if only because the explosions we'd see from Mr Brooke and Mr Llama.
I would say Leadsom has more chance than Osborne given most Tory members want a hard Brexit
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Absurd tweet, quibbles over business rates and 1 detainee nothing like crashing out of ERM
Yes, it's completely bonkers. The business rates problem will be smoothed over with more transitional relief, and the Jamal al-Harith affair is murky, will soon be forgotten anyway, and in any case is more Labour's problem than Mrs May's.
Seeing as this is a sight utterly obsessed with making predictions, I offer my own. Both of these by-elections will be long forgotten by the end of next week, if not sooner.
That's a rather brave prediction, as Sir Humphrey might once have said.
Unless we get two clear Lab holds, tomorrow's results are highly likely to be the trigger for an assault on Mr Corbyn's position.
Candidate in Stoke a complete dud and very lucky to be up against Billy Liar.
While the right of the party continues to pick the most anti Corbyn candidate Jezza is safe as candidate gets blame with majority of members.
Of course wins count as Corbyn ones.
Blair and Mandelsons suicide bombing also helpful to Jezzas survival
If Corbyn loses both by-elections to the Tories and tries to hang on then 60 or more Labour MPs could resign the whip, form an SDP MKII and their leader would become the new leader of the opposition. There's plenty of time between now and the next election to build a new Labour party and consign the old one to the dustbin. It won't come to that but that's the nuclear option.
I would have thought that the two obvious near-term potential successors to Theresa May at present are Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt.
Theresa May has made it abundantly clear that she is not going to be outflanked on her right front on Brexit. So if she were to fail, it would be by delivering a car-crash Brexit. In those circumstances, all the hard Leavers would be equally poorly placed.
Conversely, those most strongly associated with Remain would reap no benefits from being able to say "I told you so". The Conservative party, doing its usual act of never panicking except in a crisis, would look for a safe pair of hands. Right now it's hard to see past Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt for that role.
There are some PB Tories on here who really seem to have it in for PM May, so I'm intrigued, who would you want as PM out of the current crop of Tory MPs? Or is it just because Corbyn is so bad that you feel you can make trouble without any real comebacks?
You are forgetting that we are all PB Tories, comrade!
However I'd like to see Osborne as the next leader, if only because the explosions we'd see from Mr Brooke and Mr Llama.
I would say Leadsom has more chance than Osborne given most Tory members want a hard Brexit
(This post may seem very prescient in an hour, or utterly dumb.)
The rumour is there is up to seven planets in that system. Undoubtedly they will go overboard with speculation about being habitable, but it is around a red dwarf star and any planet would be bathed in X-rays and UV radiation.
Yet we find life everywhere we look on Earth. Extremophiles are crazy things.
These planets might have life, but not as we know it.
Completely off topic, I was just working on some stuff and (silly boy) the phrase "I want to be a popczar" popped into my head as a song scarily and currently relevant for D. Trump. Was that because I'm listening to Charles Ives, or just native weirdness?
The proper original lyrics are by JAMIE CULLUM. Credit where credit's due :
Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.
got to be worth a flutter
Yes, I took the opportunity to lay any other on the double and back Tory on the stoke market for a larger profit. (I'd done the reverse a week or two ago where I laid of LD and Tory on stoke)
A Tory or LD victory in stoke could be the best result for us pbers as we're likely to get renewed activity on next lab leader and possibly a ukip leadership event too.
Yes, these by-elections are entertaining and seemingly profitable. Oddly, I am very good at numbers...but I don't understand betting beyond the 2-1 etc. I think I get laying, but the rest is anathema.
And I have only bet twice in my life: I won £14,000 (Lottery) and 100 quid (Grand National), both on a £10 stake.
(This post may seem very prescient in an hour, or utterly dumb.)
The rumour is there is up to seven planets in that system. Undoubtedly they will go overboard with speculation about being habitable, but it is around a red dwarf star and any planet would be bathed in X-rays and UV radiation.
Yet we find life everywhere we look on Earth. Extremophiles are crazy things.
These planets might have life, but not as we know it.
Yep, but they also might not, and that scenario won't be considered much in the following days
I would have thought that the two obvious near-term potential successors to Theresa May at present are Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt.
Theresa May has made it abundantly clear that she is not going to be outflanked on her right front on Brexit. So if she were to fail, it would be by delivering a car-crash Brexit. In those circumstances, all the hard Leavers would be equally poorly placed.
Conversely, those most strongly associated with Remain would reap no benefits from being able to say "I told you so". The Conservative party, doing its usual act of never panicking except in a crisis, would look for a safe pair of hands. Right now it's hard to see past Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt for that role.
Very difficult to say as no conditions for May's exit yet exist.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.
got to be worth a flutter
Yes, I took the opportunity to lay any other on the double and back Tory on the stoke market for a larger profit. (I'd done the reverse a week or two ago where I laid of LD and Tory on stoke)
A Tory or LD victory in stoke could be the best result for us pbers as we're likely to get renewed activity on next lab leader and possibly a ukip leadership event too.
Yes, these by-elections are entertaining and seemingly profitable. Oddly, I am very good at numbers...but I don't understand betting beyond the 2-1 etc. I think I get laying, but the rest is anathema.
And I have only bet twice in my life: I won £14,000 (Lottery) and 100 quid (Grand National), both on a £10 stake.
I had a couple of profitable years "matched betting" via moneysavingsxpert forums. That's when I understood the numbers element. I don't get the mentality that gamblers have and have been astonished that people have been backing lab/lab on the doubles market at a lower price than they could have had lab on Copeland (via betfair anyway)
Try laying every option in a market, it's quite fun and a real maths challenge
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
Hmm. I'd be surprised. That means beating Williams and Ferrari, amongst others. That said, they did a superb job last year (losing Hulkenberg won't help).
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
Journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step and all that.
(This post may seem very prescient in an hour, or utterly dumb.)
The rumour is there is up to seven planets in that system. Undoubtedly they will go overboard with speculation about being habitable, but it is around a red dwarf star and any planet would be bathed in X-rays and UV radiation.
Yet we find life everywhere we look on Earth. Extremophiles are crazy things.
These planets might have life, but not as we know it.
Has Paul Nuttell said that he has already been to these new planets on a secret NASA mission yet?
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
Journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step and all that.
For sure, but it puts the triumphalism into a bit of context.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
In the 2012 council elections Cameron lost 405 council seats, in the 2013 local elections 335 council seats, I doubt May will do that badly in this year's council polls
I like Osborne. There, I've said it. He's too talented to be a backbencher. Not sure he has the powerbase to be the next leader though.
I don't think, to date, that he has shown the right skills to be a leader, though admittedly that is hard to define. But he is probably worth a place in Cabinet. However that would surely not happen under May, since she didn't only sack him she made sure people knew she'd upbraided him when she did it (and it must have been her who did so, since the reports were positively framed ).
I like Osborne. There, I've said it. He's too talented to be a backbencher. Not sure he has the powerbase to be the next leader though.
I don't think, to date, that he has shown the right skills to be a leader, though admittedly that is hard to define. But he is probably worth a place in Cabinet. However that would surely not happen under May, since she didn't only sack him she made sure people knew she'd upbraided him when she did it (and it must have been her who did so, since the reports were positively framed ).
If May wins the next general election I can see her removing Boris and making Osborne Foreign Secretary but not before
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
That's 6/month, so at that rate only another 500 months - 42 years to go! Do you think they'll have had a female leader by then?
I like Osborne. There, I've said it. He's too talented to be a backbencher. Not sure he has the powerbase to be the next leader though.
Osborne' time will come again (as will Gove's). Right now he's servicing his sentence on the back benches for his 'Punishment Budget' rhetoric around the EU referendum, if he keeps his nose clean and stays loyal to the PM for a couple of years, he'll most likely find his way back to the front bench. If he doesn't annoy Mrs May again in the meantime.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
Journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step and all that.
For sure, but it puts the triumphalism into a bit of context.
Some LDs see a meteoric return to fortune to match the fall from grace, but even that was not as swift as it may have seemed.
Now, if the LDs win either of tomorrow's by-elections, yes, they will very swiftly recover!
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
Journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step and all that.
For sure, but it puts the triumphalism into a bit of context.
Some LDs see a meteoric return to fortune to match the fall from grace, but even that was not as swift as it may have seemed.
Now, if the LDs win either of tomorrow's by-elections, yes, they will very swiftly recover!
The fall from grace in terms of councillors was almost continuous from 2004.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
Unless you're suggesting that the Lib Dems should set up an assassination unit to take out rival councillors in winnable seats, I'm not sure what your point is.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
Unless you're suggesting that the Lib Dems should set up an assassination unit to take out rival councillors in winnable seats, I'm not sure what your point is.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago More I think the Tories will win in Copeland and Labour will win in Stoke. There. I've done it. You all know what happens next...
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
I have posted my predictions for Copeland and Stoke both on here and the Vote2012 website . I don't recall seeing yours though .
I like Osborne. There, I've said it. He's too talented to be a backbencher. Not sure he has the powerbase to be the next leader though.
I don't think, to date, that he has shown the right skills to be a leader, though admittedly that is hard to define. But he is probably worth a place in Cabinet. However that would surely not happen under May, since she didn't only sack him she made sure people knew she'd upbraided him when she did it (and it must have been her who did so, since the reports were positively framed ).
There is a not too small part of me that thinks both parties were happy for that story to do the rounds.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
I have posted my predictions for Copeland and Stoke both on here and the Vote2012 website . I don't recall seeing yours though .
For everyone else:
"Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4 Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8"
Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.
got to be worth a flutter
Yes, I took the opportunity to lay any other on the double and back Tory on the stoke market for a larger profit. (I'd done the reverse a week or two ago where I laid of LD and Tory on stoke)
A Tory or LD victory in stoke could be the best result for us pbers as we're likely to get renewed activity on next lab leader and possibly a ukip leadership event too.
Yes, these by-elections are entertaining and seemingly profitable. Oddly, I am very good at numbers...but I don't understand betting beyond the 2-1 etc. I think I get laying, but the rest is anathema.
And I have only bet twice in my life: I won £14,000 (Lottery) and 100 quid (Grand National), both on a £10 stake.
I had a couple of profitable years "matched betting" via moneysavingsxpert forums. That's when I understood the numbers element. I don't get the mentality that gamblers have and have been astonished that people have been backing lab/lab on the doubles market at a lower price than they could have had lab on Copeland (via betfair anyway)
Try laying every option in a market, it's quite fun and a real maths challenge
I think I understand. Which betting orgs do I go to? Ladbrokes?
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago More I think the Tories will win in Copeland and Labour will win in Stoke. There. I've done it. You all know what happens next...
Whatever Dan says, usually the opposite occurs – but in this case, probably not…!
Completely off topic, I was just working on some stuff and (silly boy) the phrase "I want to be a popczar" popped into my head as a song scarily and currently relevant for D. Trump. Was that because I'm listening to Charles Ives, or just native weirdness?
The proper original lyrics are by JAMIE CULLUM. Credit where credit's due :
Hmm. I'd be surprised. That means beating Williams and Ferrari, amongst others. That said, they did a superb job last year (losing Hulkenberg won't help).
It's good to have ambitions, but FI probably overperformed last year and would be lucky to repeat. They've got a good chance of fighting for 4th with McLaren though, unless the red cars are as bad as has been rumoured.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
I have posted my predictions for Copeland and Stoke both on here and the Vote2012 website . I don't recall seeing yours though .
For everyone else:
"Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4 "
So for a Mid-term PM losing 2% in Copeland versus the GE is not much of a "vote loser" is it?
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
I have posted my predictions for Copeland and Stoke both on here and the Vote2012 website . I don't recall seeing yours though .
For everyone else:
"Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4 Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8"
I do agree, but why the social media excitement that Stoke is in play, I wonder.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago More I think the Tories will win in Copeland and Labour will win in Stoke. There. I've done it. You all know what happens next...
Whatever Dan says, usually the opposite occurs – but in this case, probably not…!
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago More I think the Tories will win in Copeland and Labour will win in Stoke. There. I've done it. You all know what happens next...
So Monster raving Looney party to gain both then.......
Mr. Pulpstar, on the other hand, UKIP is an easier option for disenchanted Labour voters than jumping to the Conservatives. Nuttall could siphon off Labour support.
I could be wrong, but in my experience Labour diehards just do not make a straight switch to the Tories. I have heard the term "Tory Boy" used as an insult by working class people all over the country
You would be surprised. Knocked on a door yesterday, the person had refused to sign Tory nomination papers for a council seat only two year ago, now an enthusiastic Tory supporter. She can't stand Corbyn.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
I have posted my predictions for Copeland and Stoke both on here and the Vote2012 website . I don't recall seeing yours though .
For everyone else:
"Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4 Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8"
I do agree, but why the social media excitement that Stoke is in play, I wonder.
A quintupling of the Lib Dem vote share in Stoke will be spectacular!
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
That's 6/month, so at that rate only another 500 months - 42 years to go! Do you think they'll have had a female leader by then?
The number of councillors today is around 20% smaller than it used to be 20 years ago , creation of unitaries etc . The pattern of the annual elections has also changed with more councils moving from annual elections to elections every 4 years . Over half of all English local elections are now fought every 4th year so 2019 will be the next big year which may well see 1,000 plus Lib Dem gains , sounds a lot but is only 3 per council on average .
(This post may seem very prescient in an hour, or utterly dumb.)
The rumour is there is up to seven planets in that system. Undoubtedly they will go overboard with speculation about being habitable, but it is around a red dwarf star and any planet would be bathed in X-rays and UV radiation.
Yet we find life everywhere we look on Earth. Extremophiles are crazy things.
These planets might have life, but not as we know it.
Yep, but they also might not, and that scenario won't be considered much in the following days
Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.
got to be worth a flutter
Yes, I took the opportunity to lay any other on the double and back Tory on the stoke market for a larger profit. (I'd done the reverse a week or two ago where I laid of LD and Tory on stoke)
A Tory or LD victory in stoke could be the best result for us pbers as we're likely to get renewed activity on next lab leader and possibly a ukip leadership event too.
Yes, these by-elections are entertaining and seemingly profitable. Oddly, I am very good at numbers...but I don't understand betting beyond the 2-1 etc. I think I get laying, but the rest is anathema.
And I have only bet twice in my life: I won £14,000 (Lottery) and 100 quid (Grand National), both on a £10 stake.
I had a couple of profitable years "matched betting" via moneysavingsxpert forums. That's when I understood the numbers element. I don't get the mentality that gamblers have and have been astonished that people have been backing lab/lab on the doubles market at a lower price than they could have had lab on Copeland (via betfair anyway)
Try laying every option in a market, it's quite fun and a real maths challenge
I think I understand. Which betting orgs do I go to? Ladbrokes?
Comments
Back in the real world away from Stoke and Copeland, the issue of funding adult social care rumbles on:
http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2017/02/social-care-reform-coming-javid-pledges-finance-settlement-confirmed?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
So the £240m settlement is what it is subject to Hammond finding some money down the back of the Treasury sofa next week.
Another take on this from this evening's Standard:
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/anthony-hilton-we-re-banking-on-you-philip-hammond-to-lift-the-mood-of-the-nation-a3473311.html
Basically, for all the optimistic blether on here, we remain in a parlous state in terms of the public finances. The other aspect of the business rates issue is the decoupling of Government from supporting local authorities via the Revenue Support Grant is predicated on Councils gaining access to business rates paid in their area. If businesses pressurise the Government to reduce their business rates liabilities, the plan for Councils to become fully self-financing in 2019-20 will be in big trouble.
Who cares on here though - as long as the Conservatives win Stoke and Copeland - that's all that matters.
If Labour lose Copeland to the Tories and win Stoke, he will be wounded and it might start up a new campaign to oust him.
If Labour lose Copeland to the Tories and Stoke to UKIP then he is in serious trouble and if he doesn't resign over it, he will be removed later in the year.
If Labour lose both Copeland and Stoke to the Tories, Corbyn is dead in the water and by Sunday at the latest, he will be gone or at the very least it will be announced that he is going.
HOWEVER really bad weather in Copeland could delay the count until Friday morning/lunchtime.
Shadsy, when you boil it down to 100% makes them 11.7% to be 4th
Your 2nd and 3rd prices come to 86.5% so we need to get them down to the remaining 63%.. a crude multiplication by 0.73 makes it 36.5% and 26.3%
That makes UKIP worth 10.1 on SPINs 25/10
(unless you think they are genuinely 86.5% to come 2nd or 3rd, which with Shadsy's 11.7% to come 4th would make them 54/1 to win it!)
The proper original lyrics are by JAMIE CULLUM. Credit where credit's due :
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/jamiecullum/iwanttobeapopstar.html
Candidate in Stoke a complete dud and very lucky to be up against Billy Liar.
While the right of the party continues to pick the most anti Corbyn candidate Jezza is safe as candidate gets blame with majority of members.
Of course wins count as Corbyn ones.
Blair and Mandelsons suicide bombing also helpful to Jezzas survival
Apologies all around.
A Tory or LD victory in stoke could be the best result for us pbers as we're likely to get renewed activity on next lab leader and possibly a ukip leadership event too.
Governments make bad decisions when there's no effective opposition to hold them to account, which ultimately screws the governing party long term.
If Corbyn is going to hold her to account, some of us will.
1st = 13.6%, 2nd = 50%, 3rd or Lower = 36.4% Correct SPIN = 8.4
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRAPPIST-1
(This post may seem very prescient in an hour, or utterly dumb.)
However I'd like to see Osborne as the next leader, if only because the explosions we'd see from Mr Brooke and Mr Llama.
I'm off to the Carmathenshire/Pembrokeshire border for my hols this year.
One year domestic, one year foreign is how I roll. Packing my camera :>
Unless we get two clear Lab holds, tomorrow's results are highly likely to be the trigger for an assault on Mr Corbyn's position.
There's plenty of time between now and the next election to build a new Labour party and consign the old one to the dustbin.
It won't come to that but that's the nuclear option.
Theresa May has made it abundantly clear that she is not going to be outflanked on her right front on Brexit. So if she were to fail, it would be by delivering a car-crash Brexit. In those circumstances, all the hard Leavers would be equally poorly placed.
Conversely, those most strongly associated with Remain would reap no benefits from being able to say "I told you so". The Conservative party, doing its usual act of never panicking except in a crisis, would look for a safe pair of hands. Right now it's hard to see past Philip Hammond and Jeremy Hunt for that role.
These planets might have life, but not as we know it.
And I have only bet twice in my life: I won £14,000 (Lottery) and 100 quid (Grand National), both on a £10 stake.
Try laying every option in a market, it's quite fun and a real maths challenge
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39055494
Hmm. I'd be surprised. That means beating Williams and Ferrari, amongst others. That said, they did a superb job last year (losing Hulkenberg won't help).
Now, if the LDs win either of tomorrow's by-elections, yes, they will very swiftly recover!
More
I think the Tories will win in Copeland and Labour will win in Stoke. There. I've done it. You all know what happens next...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/22/theresa-may-hits-phones-ahead-closely-contested-by-elections/
"Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4
Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8"
Ferrari need to sort themselves out.
Horrific.