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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leade

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416

    DavidL said:

    I disagree with the header that Nuttall would be under pressure to resign as leader even if he wins but I think that is an entirely academic issue. He is not going to win, probably not even come second. It looks a good bet, may even pay off on Friday.

    Not sure you should use the word "academic" in relation to Dr Nuttall, whose PhD in football stadium policing is widely cited.
    You're right of course. An unfortunate oversight.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,072
    Sandpit said:

    She was the one who was in charge when the Brazilian electrician got shot. Public sector accountability at work as usual.
    Truly? What odds the appointment is withdrawn following outrage in that case I wonder.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This is rather interesting

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2584786

    "Like most of his speeches and appearances on the campaign trail, Trump's addresses to CPAC have been wild and unpredictable. Looking back at them, one begins to see how he fed off of the audience and used the conference to try to develop his political persona. Here are some of his top moments since he first addressed CPAC in 2011:

    https://youtu.be/PlT9fAkj0XU
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    The private school nearest to me is an eye-watering price, but the results are no better than the local comp. Their fields are good to ride horses up the side of though.

    it's not what you learn, it's who you hang around with. The art of the private school.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,083

    I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.

    Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?
    18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.
    It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
    OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).
    O/T ... a bit anyway. What do you well-informed chaps think of the proposal in Essex for the PCC to take over as the Fire and well as the Police authority?
    Going out for an hour just now, so if any questions I'll deal with them when I return.
    Well, Mr. Cole many years ago the police forces in many parts of England also ran the ambulance services through the Watch Committees and County Authorities, so there is a precedent for combining more than one emergency service under a single authority. The fire Service was never part of that scheme though.

    On the whole, I would be against giving the office of PCC greater scope at this time. The role has yet to bed in and prove itself effective in the job that it has now, I think it would be a bad idea to give people who are struggling with their present job more responsibilities.
    Mr L, Mr S, you have confirmed my thoughts. We have a 'consultation' with the questions wriiten to enable support to be assumed, but I've worked my way through it and voted, so far as I can, against. It's could to have my opinions confirmed.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    She was the one who was in charge when the Brazilian electrician got shot. Public sector accountability at work as usual.
    Truly? What odds the appointment is withdrawn following outrage in that case I wonder.
    Jobs for the (girls)
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    staceyj said:

    Getting rather fed up with Mikes obsession with Nuttall. I personally don't see 6-4 as value in any way shape or form, but as usual Mike is talking his own book up. Whatever happened to the great "independant" blogger Mike Smithson

    He forgot how to spell "independent"?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    38 in my Year 11 maths class.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    On the experience of my children the main advantage of private education is the highly motivated and competitive class environment which demands the best of the children. The ethos is very different from my experience of state schools where it was not "cool" to be clever or work hard or even be particularly ambitious.

    Much of this comes from the parents who are paying of course but the fact that those who do not subscribe to that ethos can be winnowed out and removed (something State schools inevitably find far more difficult) helps enormously.

    In Dundee fees are about £11,000 a year now but have been increasing much faster than inflation for the last decade. I'm glad I am on my last!
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Dixie said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/

    My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?
    16 grand in London minimum. 20 grand average.
    But almost certainly with far smaller classes than 30 years ago, which means more teachers, and a wider range of sports coached by ex-internationals with more equipment, including all the machines you'd expect in a high-end executive health club or whatever they call gyms these days, and a laptop and tablet for every child -- while in state schools they still have to use pens!
    mainly, but not all the case. Certainly a lot better. Pupils use computers but you pay extra for that. our local private school was using the park until recently. The computer room though looks like a film set, effing beautiful and looks like NASA.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    She was the one who was in charge when the Brazilian electrician got shot. Public sector accountability at work as usual.
    Truly? What odds the appointment is withdrawn following outrage in that case I wonder.
    With the media restrictions on anything too party-political tomorrow for the by-elections, there's a good chance of this appointment making most of the front pages. Hacks are probably chasing down the family of Mr de Menezes now for comment.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    This school is going to be massively oversubscribed....

    Yup, but the really important question is why? What is it about this new school that will attract so many parents to pay out of their taxed income to get their children into it? What will this new, untried and untested school offering that the local authority schools, that are there for no fee, are not?

    I read that the people who have set up this school are planning to set up similar one's all across the North. If not they, then someone else will set up similar chains in the Midlands and the South.

    So if it works something is being said about our taxpayer-financed schools and LEAs. I am not sure I am comfortable about what this will mean in terms of educational apartheid in a few years to come, but it might be very hopeful sign of improvement in our dreadful educational system (e,g, just suppose someone sets up a chain of schools concentrating on vocational education and the LEAs job is to funnel the cash where the pupils want to go for the parents who cannot afford the very modest fees).

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    edited February 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    This school is going to be massively oversubscribed....

    Yup, but the really important question is why? What is it about this new school that will attract so many parents to pay out of their taxed income to get their children into it? What will this new, untried and untested school offering that the local authority schools, that are there for no fee, are not?

    I read that the people who have set up this school are planning to set up similar one's all across the North. If not they, then someone else will set up similar chains in the Midlands and the South.

    So if it works something is being said about our taxpayer-financed schools and LEAs. I am not sure I am comfortable about what this will mean in terms of educational apartheid in a few years to come, but it might be very hopeful sign of improvement in our dreadful educational system (e,g, just suppose someone sets up a chain of schools concentrating on vocational education and the LEAs job is to funnel the cash where the pupils want to go for the parents who cannot afford the very modest fees).

    Because it combines affordability with parents who DEFINITELY send their kid to school to learn.
    The state sector has the former, and private the latter. Grammar schools have both too, but can't be created for political reasons.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    DavidL said:

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    On the experience of my children the main advantage of private education is the highly motivated and competitive class environment which demands the best of the children. The ethos is very different from my experience of state schools where it was not "cool" to be clever or work hard or even be particularly ambitious.

    Much of this comes from the parents who are paying of course but the fact that those who do not subscribe to that ethos can be winnowed out and removed (something State schools inevitably find far more difficult) helps enormously.

    In Dundee fees are about £11,000 a year now but have been increasing much faster than inflation for the last decade. I'm glad I am on my last!
    Yes, it's absolutely the ethos of the school that makes the difference, alongside the engagement of parents.

    I'm definitely looking forward to seeing how this experiment works out, a cut-price private education with the right emphasis could be hugely popular among the genuinely middle-class - who now find themselves priced out of educating their children in the same way that they were educated themselves.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,626
    edited February 2017
    DavidL said:

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    On the experience of my children the main advantage of private education is the highly motivated and competitive class environment which demands the best of the children. The ethos is very different from my experience of state schools where it was not "cool" to be clever or work hard or even be particularly ambitious.

    Much of this comes from the parents who are paying of course but the fact that those who do not subscribe to that ethos can be winnowed out and removed (something State schools inevitably find far more difficult) helps enormously.

    In Dundee fees are about £11,000 a year now but have been increasing much faster than inflation for the last decade. I'm glad I am on my last!
    That too, my parents and grandparents were obsessed with my education.

    The time I got just an A instead of an A*, it was like the end of the world for them.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited February 2017
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    wasdwasd Posts: 276

    Pulpstar said:

    This school is going to be massively oversubscribed....

    Yup, but the really important question is why? What is it about this new school that will attract so many parents to pay out of their taxed income to get their children into it? What will this new, untried and untested school offering that the local authority schools, that are there for no fee, are not?

    I read that the people who have set up this school are planning to set up similar one's all across the North. If not they, then someone else will set up similar chains in the Midlands and the South.

    So if it works something is being said about our taxpayer-financed schools and LEAs. I am not sure I am comfortable about what this will mean in terms of educational apartheid in a few years to come, but it might be very hopeful sign of improvement in our dreadful educational system (e,g, just suppose someone sets up a chain of schools concentrating on vocational education and the LEAs job is to funnel the cash where the pupils want to go for the parents who cannot afford the very modest fees).

    Children usually reflect their parents attitudes; by excluding parents unwilling to do more than the very minimum they are legally mandated to do then you're also excluding a good number of children with the same attitude.
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    tlg86 said:

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    38 in my Year 11 maths class.
    So that's why you couldn't get into Fen Poly and had to slum it at Cowley Tech.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    There were 40 people in my GCSE history class.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    dr_spyn said:
    Sinclair C5?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,094
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/

    My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?
    I believe inflation has averaged a little more than 4% in the period, which works out to about a 500% increase over 40 years - i.e. £1,800 a term.

    I suspect that the price of a private school in Newcastle is probably around £3,500 - 4,000 per term, so about 6-7% annual inflation.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited February 2017
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Sinclair C5?


    Feb 20 2017 Bike News


    The IRIS eTrike picks up where Sinclair’s C5 left off

    Sir Clive Sinclair’s nephew brings new answer to urban mobility

    (Lib Dems have urban mobility!)

    http://www.bikeradar.com/commuting/news/article/iris-etrike-sinclair-49215/
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Michael Calderone
    Trump's getting more coverage than the next 1,000 famous people, per firm tracking value of earned media https://t.co/9IgiDTJrDc
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    dr_spyn said:
    Aren't the lib dems now a taxi?
    Martin Day, formally of this parish seemed to think so.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,072
    dr_spyn said:
    One of those little Italian style scooters? Good in their own way perhaps, but risky and much more popular in its ideas on the continent.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    Sinclair C5?

    This question was asked recently

    @LouiseAnkersLD: @JohnRentoul an idea for a Top 10 - Top Ten ideas that had to be implemented to show they were rubbish.

    C5 would be on my list
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Sir Clive Sinclair’s nephew brings new answer to urban mobility

    (Lib Dems have urban mobility!)

    http://www.bikeradar.com/commuting/news/article/iris-etrike-sinclair-49215/

    Another vehicle with looks that would make you embarrassed to sit in it! Clearly nothing was learned from the C5!

  • Options
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. wasd, some years ago a US study found the biggest factor in religion was the religion of one's parents, perhaps unsurprisingly. Political leanings might be seen in a similar light.

    Mr. Eagles, good line for getting the apathetic to vote.
  • Options

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    From this review of the research, we can scientifically document several important findings about reduced class size, which local school districts may find useful:

    •Smaller classes in the early grades (K-3) can boost student academic achievement;
    •A class size of no more than 18 students per teacher is required to produce the greatest benefits;
    •A program spanning grades K-3 will produce more benefits than a program that reaches students in only one or two of the primary grades;
    •Minority and low-income students show even greater gains when placed in small classes in the primary grades;
    •The experience and preparation of teachers is a critical factor in the success or failure of class size reduction programs;
    •Reducing class size will have little effect without enough classrooms and well-qualified teachers; and
    •Supports, such as professional development for teachers and a rigorous curriculum, enhance the effect of reduced class size on academic achievement.

    Source: http://www.centerforpubliceducation.org/Main-Menu/Organizing-a-school/Class-size-and-student-achievement-At-a-glance/Class-size-and-student-achievement-Research-review.html
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited February 2017

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. wasd, some years ago a US study found the biggest factor in religion was the religion of one's parents, perhaps unsurprisingly. Political leanings might be seen in a similar light.

    Mr. Eagles, good line for getting the apathetic to vote.

    Mr Dancer, not so much political leaning, although that might be the case. Definitely work ethic I would say. If you see your parents lounging around doing sod-all all day, it will look like the normal thing to do. Its conspicuously the case in people close to me, lazy parents mostly have lazy kids - well, more lazy than most kids anyway ;)

    If you parents are not interested in your assignments, don't take an interest in your school work, don't attend parents evenings etc, most kids are going to figure its not something they should be interested in either. With private schools there is nothing like a 5 grand bill every year to focus minds on the importance of education!

    There is clear evidence of this in families with 3rd generation long term unemployed, where the kids don't see why they should be bothered to get a job when the state will take care of them and they can do what they want with their life, in effect they feel its their right to play on their xbox at the public expense!
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    wasdwasd Posts: 276

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. wasd, some years ago a US study found the biggest factor in religion was the religion of one's parents, perhaps unsurprisingly. Political leanings might be seen in a similar light.

    Mr. Eagles, good line for getting the apathetic to vote.

    Unsurprising. It would be very odd if the parents culture didn't at least get partially transmitted down to their offspring.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    From this review of the research, we can scientifically document several important findings about reduced class size, which local school districts may find useful:

    •Smaller classes in the early grades (K-3) can boost student academic achievement;
    •A class size of no more than 18 students per teacher is required to produce the greatest benefits;
    •A program spanning grades K-3 will produce more benefits than a program that reaches students in only one or two of the primary grades;
    •Minority and low-income students show even greater gains when placed in small classes in the primary grades;
    •The experience and preparation of teachers is a critical factor in the success or failure of class size reduction programs;
    •Reducing class size will have little effect without enough classrooms and well-qualified teachers; and
    •Supports, such as professional development for teachers and a rigorous curriculum, enhance the effect of reduced class size on academic achievement.

    Source: http://www.centerforpubliceducation.org/Main-Menu/Organizing-a-school/Class-size-and-student-achievement-At-a-glance/Class-size-and-student-achievement-Research-review.html
    impressive research
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    On Stoke: is Labour claiming they'll win by 400 votes against UKIP, or the Conservatives?
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    but who is close? If Tories, they can turn it. UKIP can't
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Sinclair C5?
    A Segway scooter?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Big old Squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzeeeeeeeeee appeal to potential Lib Dem voters.
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    If that's consistent with Labour fearing the Tories more than UKIP, now, then the Tories are stonking value.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,688
    No matter how good the canvas returns are you can't tell that sort of margin. It sounds like the usual call to get the people there for knocking up as it is the 'too close to call' message.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,626
    edited February 2017
    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    So my close sources in Tories are happy with the job they have done in both Stoke and Copeland. They're not favourites in either they say, but Copeland should be a closer result. UKIP insiders say they know they are disorganized and Nuttall is media failure but they reckon that people don't care. They say postal votes likely to win Stoke for Labour. I'm still forecasting 2 Labour holds.
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    Lab win Copeland & lose Stoke 14/1

    Just saying.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This school is going to be massively oversubscribed....

    Yup, but the really important question is why? What is it about this new school that will attract so many parents to pay out of their taxed income to get their children into it? What will this new, untried and untested school offering that the local authority schools, that are there for no fee, are not?

    I read that the people who have set up this school are planning to set up similar one's all across the North. If not they, then someone else will set up similar chains in the Midlands and the South.

    So if it works something is being said about our taxpayer-financed schools and LEAs. I am not sure I am comfortable about what this will mean in terms of educational apartheid in a few years to come, but it might be very hopeful sign of improvement in our dreadful educational system (e,g, just suppose someone sets up a chain of schools concentrating on vocational education and the LEAs job is to funnel the cash where the pupils want to go for the parents who cannot afford the very modest fees).

    Because it combines affordability with parents who DEFINITELY send their kid to school to learn.
    The state sector has the former, and private the latter. Grammar schools have both too, but can't be created for political reasons.
    It has to do with the *bottom* 10-20%, the kids and parents who don't give a shit about school, who stop others learning and bully those who appear introverted.

    This isn't something to which the answer is streaming and setting, as it's a problem as much of the playground as the classroom. It will only get fixed when headteachers in state schools have real authority to exclude the small percentage of unruly pupils who ruin the education of all the others.
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    wasdwasd Posts: 276
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This school is going to be massively oversubscribed....

    Yup, but the really important question is why? What is it about this new school that will attract so many parents to pay out of their taxed income to get their children into it? What will this new, untried and untested school offering that the local authority schools, that are there for no fee, are not?

    I read that the people who have set up this school are planning to set up similar one's all across the North. If not they, then someone else will set up similar chains in the Midlands and the South.

    So if it works something is being said about our taxpayer-financed schools and LEAs. I am not sure I am comfortable about what this will mean in terms of educational apartheid in a few years to come, but it might be very hopeful sign of improvement in our dreadful educational system (e,g, just suppose someone sets up a chain of schools concentrating on vocational education and the LEAs job is to funnel the cash where the pupils want to go for the parents who cannot afford the very modest fees).

    Because it combines affordability with parents who DEFINITELY send their kid to school to learn.
    The state sector has the former, and private the latter. Grammar schools have both too, but can't be created for political reasons.
    It has to do with the *bottom* 10-20%, the kids and parents who don't give a shit about school, who stop others learning and bully those who appear introverted.

    This isn't something to which the answer is streaming and setting, as it's a problem as much of the playground as the classroom. It will only get fixed when headteachers in state schools have real authority to exclude the small percentage of unruly pupils who ruin the education of all the others.
    Start withdrawing all benefits from parents who's children get excluded for ten times as long as the exclusion period. And add compulsory custodial sentences for assault on teachers.
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    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    Still 19/1 on Betfair. Incredible.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited February 2017
    Off-topic, but I watched a Channel 4 programme last night about the best place to live in the UK. Leyland won with Warrington second (hmm ... it was using the youngish as the demographics of choice), but the interesting part was when they discussed London.

    They stated that many London-born people move out, with house prices being a big factor, and they are often replaced by immigrants to the country. I assume that's accurate.

    If so, then surely Brexit could act as a partial solution to the housing crisis there. Assuming fewer immigrants into the capital, then the population could fall. House prices would fall in line and there'd be an eventual equilibrium at a lower level.

    Brexit - the gift that keeps on giving.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    Lab win Copeland & lose Stoke 14/1

    Just saying.

    That's all very well after I just put the house on a Labour double...
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    Dadge said:

    Lab win Copeland & lose Stoke 14/1

    Just saying.

    That's all very well after I just put the house on a Labour double...
    I think you'll win, I think the 3/1 that Shadsy offered on Lab holding both seats might well be a rare rick by him.
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    Scott_P said:
    Great post. - Someone's gone to a great deal of effort to dig those stats out.
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    UKIP believe they have enough pledges to win Stoke.Whether they can defeat the postal votes and get pledgers out in atrocious weather is another matter.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    CD13 said:

    Off-topic, but I watched a Channel 4 programme last night about the best place to live in the UK. Leyland won with Warrington second (hmm ... it was using the youngish as the demographics of choice), but the interesting part was when they discussed London.

    They stated that many London-born people move out, with house prices being a big factor, and they are often replaced by immigrants to the country. I assume that's accurate.

    If so, then surely Brexit could act as a partial solution to the housing crisis there. Assuming fewer immigrants into the capital, then the population could fall. House prices would fall in line and there'sdbe an eventual equilibrium at a lower level.

    Brexit - the gift that keeps on giving.

    Indeed. I moved in my road of 100 houses in 1997. Since then about 50 houses have been sold. Not one single British family has moved in. Mainly Europeans. To rent in our road is now £3k per month. Most are ex-pats or EU staff Our road is ordinary terrace street. Many Europeans are now saying they will leave London. I like them, but house prices will fall and that's good for my children. Brexit here we come
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,072
    No it won't. I stake my non-existent house on it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    I'm still in two minds, can Corbyn survive a Tory win in Stoke, now that Blair and Mandleson are back making nuisances of themselves again?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,072
    Pulpstar said:

    Assorted media think it'll be a bad night for Labour in Stoke


    htt://twitter.com/J_Bloodworth/status/834426623189467136

    hps://twitter.com/wsj_douglasj/status/834419963335208960
    ttps://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/834418401653178370
    ttps://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/834108096658161664

    Wishful thinking for excitement. Snell's tweets make him look an arse, but enough to lose the seat, even with other Lab difficulties?
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    Sandpit said:

    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    I'm still in two minds, can Corbyn survive a Tory win in Stoke, now that Blair and Mandleson are back making nuisances of themselves again?
    Stoke, he can blame Gareth Snell being a bell end and the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Sandpit said:

    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    I'm still in two minds, can Corbyn survive a Tory win in Stoke, now that Blair and Mandleson are back making nuisances of themselves again?
    No. Corbyn won't survive a Tory win in Stoke, in much the same as we all wouldn't survive the sun going supernova tommorow.
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    Hmm. Backed Labour at 3.5 in Copeland. Happy with that. Unsure of dabbling elsewhere. Might put a smidgen on the blues at 8 (the double, Lab-Copeland, Con-Stoke, is 14 though).

    The agony of choice!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    Lab-Copeland, Con-Stoke, is 14 though

    Don't take that bet, it is absolubtely horrible. 1,400 - 1 would be nearer the mark given the negative correlation between those results.
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    Put tiny sums on.

    Anyway, to France: Macron has shortened again, Fillon lengthened a smidge. Macron back to joint favourite (Ladbrokes all these numbers) with Le Pen at 2.75, Fillon out to 3.25.

    However, Le Pen's all the way out (with Betfair) at 3.75.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Bayrou, who is obviously now not running, giving his backing to Macron if this tweet is correct.

    https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/834427314435919873
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    edited February 2017
    Con-Copeland Lab-Stoke OTOH is an absolute steal if you can get it at 14-1.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,014
    edited February 2017
    Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder. Labour has the NHS card in Copeland, and a reportedly sound candidate, whereas Stoke is hobbled by low turnout, two terrible candidates (UKIP and Labour) and might be in play.

    Anyway, if Labour win Copeland *or* Conservatives win Stoke, I'll be content.

    ....

    If it's the other way around I shall be miffed.

    Edited extra bit: the Ladbrokes double is for Labour to win Copeland and lose Stoke, so a UKIP win there would also pay out.

    Edited extra bit 2: Mr. G, that would explain the shortening of Macron's odds.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,010
    dr_spyn said:

    "Asked to draw a car that summed up the Labour party, the group produced sketches of clapped-out old bangers, variously on bricks, or in one case with a steering wheel at each end “because they don’t know which way they’re going”.

    The Tory party was likened to a Rolls-Royce or limousine, with the passengers drinking champagne and “mowing down the poor”.

    The drawings of vehicles that represented Ukip all included either the St George’s Cross or the union flag – and in one case a union flag on top of a swastika “because I’m not sure what to think of them”. "

    That's exactly how I would have imagined working class people in Stoke see the three parties. I know everyone here is writing off UKIP, but if they win in it will look so obvious in hindsight.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    tlg86 said:

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    38 in my Year 11 maths class.
    So that's why you couldn't get into Fen Poly and had to slum it at Cowley Tech.
    Ha ha. No. It's why I ended up doing a geography degree. When you're in a class of 38, it's very easy to be intimidated by those who have the advantage of having help with maths at home. I didn't realize how good I was at maths - it's what I wish I had done.
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    Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    Sandpit said:

    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    I'm still in two minds, can Corbyn survive a Tory win in Stoke, now that Blair and Mandleson are back making nuisances of themselves again?
    Stoke, he can blame Gareth Snell being a bell end and the embodiment of David Cameron's maxim about Twitter.
    David Cameron's maxim about Twitter, will probably last longer than Twitter.
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    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Mike says of Corbyn " I’m of the view that two LAB holds tomorrow would make it easier for him to stand aside". Quite convoluted reasoning for that but I can see why you say it. Nevertheless for me even just one Labour loss on Thursday would still pretty much guarantee an early Corbyn exit if only because it would become impossible to ignore impending oblivion even in the most stubborn Labour mind and whatever excuses Corbyn came up with wouldn't cut the mustard any longer. However as two Lab holds are the far more likely outcome betting on Corbyn hanging on longer than Nuttall is fair enough. Corbyn was always a GE disaster in the making not a by-election one where local issues hold more sway, activists can spare the time and you are not electing a PM.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Sandpit said:

    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    I'm still in two minds, can Corbyn survive a Tory win in Stoke, now that Blair and Mandleson are back making nuisances of themselves again?
    Corbyn can survive anything because it's impossible to remove him if he doesn't want to go. The only exception to this is if McDonnell says that enough is enough, which he would probably do if Labour lost Stoke.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    I'm still in two minds, can Corbyn survive a Tory win in Stoke, now that Blair and Mandleson are back making nuisances of themselves again?
    No. Corbyn won't survive a Tory win in Stoke, in much the same as we all wouldn't survive the sun going supernova tommorow.
    And they are probably about as likely as each other.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,781
    edited February 2017

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Sinclair C5?
    Feb 20 2017 Bike News

    The IRIS eTrike picks up where Sinclair’s C5 left off

    Sir Clive Sinclair’s nephew brings new answer to urban mobility

    (Lib Dems have urban mobility!)

    http://www.bikeradar.com/commuting/news/article/iris-etrike-sinclair-49215/
    Lots of problems with that, not least that the big version will require motoring insurance etc, and the smaller version will not get through the barriers and chicanes which litter our cycle routes.

    Though it would get through this one, designed to keep out all bikes which are wider than a bus - if the electricator can lift 55 kilos over the kerb:

    image

    The weight needs to be half of the current figure.

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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Lab-Copeland, Con-Stoke, is 14 though

    Don't take that bet, it is absolubtely horrible. 1,400 - 1 would be nearer the mark given the negative correlation between those results.
    I pondered the related contingency factor on that bet yesterday and I'm not convinced the odds of the double should be much different to simply multiplying the singles together.

    The voters in Stoke are very different to the voters in Copeland.

    I'm happy enough to threat them as two separate byelections for doubles purposes on that bet.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder. Labour has the NHS card in Copeland, and a reportedly sound candidate, whereas Stoke is hobbled by low turnout, two terrible candidates (UKIP and Labour) and might be in play.

    Anyway, if Labour win Copeland *or* Conservatives win Stoke, I'll be content.

    ....

    If it's the other way around I shall be miffed.

    Look at the margin to overcome though, 8.4% swing in Stoke needed; 3.25% in Copeland.

    In addition to that the Tories are coming from third in Stoke whereas Copeland is obviously a straight and clear Lab-Tory battle.

    Also Tory helpers (@David_Herdson) etc have been doing the rounds in Copeland, whereas a 25 year old candidate has been chosen in Stoke. That is a sure sign they weren't THAT serious about it at the start.

    Nuttall might be hopeless but he represents an obstacle for Bereton to come over, whereas Trudy Harrison just has Gillian Troughton to overhaul.

    Con-Stoke, Lab-Copeland is just one I can't see - if the Tories are strong enough to win Stoke then Copeland falls.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,010
    Pong said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lab-Copeland, Con-Stoke, is 14 though

    Don't take that bet, it is absolubtely horrible. 1,400 - 1 would be nearer the mark given the negative correlation between those results.
    I pondered the related contingency factor on that bet yesterday and I'm not convinced the odds of the double should be much different to simply multiplying the singles together.

    The voters in Stoke are very different to the voters in Copeland.

    I'm happy enough to threat them as two separate byelections for doubles purposes on that bet.
    Me too
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    Mr. Pulpstar, on the other hand, UKIP is an easier option for disenchanted Labour voters than jumping to the Conservatives. Nuttall could siphon off Labour support.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,010

    Mr. Pulpstar, on the other hand, UKIP is an easier option for disenchanted Labour voters than jumping to the Conservatives. Nuttall could siphon off Labour support.

    I could be wrong, but in my experience Labour diehards just do not make a straight switch to the Tories. I have heard the term "Tory Boy" used as an insult by working class people all over the country
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: No10 spksman on Javid business rates (and fact that at 12 noon no new money, at 4pm new money):"I don't think it's chaos."
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    DanSmith said:

    Sandpit said:

    Am told by a reliable source that the Tories will be throwing t'kitchen sink in Stoke tomorrow in GOTV operations.

    I'm still in two minds, can Corbyn survive a Tory win in Stoke, now that Blair and Mandleson are back making nuisances of themselves again?
    Corbyn can survive anything because it's impossible to remove him if he doesn't want to go. The only exception to this is if McDonnell says that enough is enough, which he would probably do if Labour lost Stoke.
    Might he just break with McDonnell and say he doesnt care because the membership loves him ? He doesn't care about parliament reportedly, so as long as he keeps getting rapturous receptions at Momentum meetings he will probably stay. He might stay anyway if he sees his job as giving influence to StW and assorted other malcontents.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    edited February 2017

    Mr. Pulpstar, on the other hand, UKIP is an easier option for disenchanted Labour voters than jumping to the Conservatives. Nuttall could siphon off Labour support.

    The correct price, assuming no correlation as @isam and @pong judge to be correct for Tory-Stoke, Lab-Copeland is 60-1 fyi.
    Lab-Stoke, Tory-Copeland right now should be 6-5 (Betfair prices)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited February 2017

    Might he just break with McDonnell and say he doesnt care because the membership loves him ? He doesn't care about parliament reportedly, so as long as he keeps getting rapturous receptions at Momentum meetings he will probably stay. He might stay anyway if he sees his job as giving influence to StW and assorted other malcontents.

    That would be the point for 150 Labour MPs to resign the whip
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    Mr. Pulpstar, I slightly misread the bet. It's Lab-Copeland, NotLab-Stoke (so a UKIP win pays out, if Labour take Copeland).

    Mr. Isam, aye, that was my thinking.
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    Is anyone playing in Shadsy's Stoke fourth-place market?

    Liberal Democrats 1.36
    Conservatives 4.00
    UKIP 7.00
    Labour 17.00
    Greens 26.00
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    isamisam Posts: 41,010
    edited February 2017

    Is anyone playing in Shadsy's Stoke fourth-place market?

    Liberal Democrats 1.36
    Conservatives 4.00
    UKIP 7.00
    Labour 17.00
    Greens 26.00

    Hope not, its a 122% book #defensive

    What price do you think UKIP should be to come 2nd and to come 3rd Richard?

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    Mr. Pulpstar, I slightly misread the bet. It's Lab-Copeland, NotLab-Stoke (so a UKIP win pays out, if Labour take Copeland).

    Mr. Isam, aye, that was my thinking.

    Oh - well that is very different !

    9.7 is the correct price . So the 14-1 is well worth taking, if you assume no correlation.

    I think there is, and it is negative in this case - so I'm swerving it.
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    Does anyone know what time the Stoke and Copeland results are due? Are they counting overnight?
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, I wonder. Labour has the NHS card in Copeland, and a reportedly sound candidate, whereas Stoke is hobbled by low turnout, two terrible candidates (UKIP and Labour) and might be in play.

    Anyway, if Labour win Copeland *or* Conservatives win Stoke, I'll be content.

    ....

    If it's the other way around I shall be miffed.

    Look at the margin to overcome though, 8.4% swing in Stoke needed; 3.25% in Copeland.

    In addition to that the Tories are coming from third in Stoke whereas Copeland is obviously a straight and clear Lab-Tory battle.

    Also Tory helpers (@David_Herdson) etc have been doing the rounds in Copeland, whereas a 25 year old candidate has been chosen in Stoke. That is a sure sign they weren't THAT serious about it at the start.

    Nuttall might be hopeless but he represents an obstacle for Bereton to come over, whereas Trudy Harrison just has Gillian Troughton to overhaul.

    Con-Stoke, Lab-Copeland is just one I can't see - if the Tories are strong enough to win Stoke then Copeland falls.
    Agreed on last point. If Stoke goes Labour in shit street
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    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, I slightly misread the bet. It's Lab-Copeland, NotLab-Stoke (so a UKIP win pays out, if Labour take Copeland).

    Mr. Isam, aye, that was my thinking.

    Oh - well that is very different !

    9.7 is the correct price . So the 14-1 is well worth taking, if you assume no correlation.

    I think there is, and it is negative in this case - so I'm swerving it.
    If all things go to plan, we should have another double header in June. Leigh and Liverpool Walton.

    I wonder what the price on the double Lab hold seats in that would be?
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    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, I slightly misread the bet. It's Lab-Copeland, NotLab-Stoke (so a UKIP win pays out, if Labour take Copeland).

    Mr. Isam, aye, that was my thinking.

    Oh - well that is very different !

    9.7 is the correct price . So the 14-1 is well worth taking, if you assume no correlation.

    I think there is, and it is negative in this case - so I'm swerving it.
    If all things go to plan, we should have another double header in June. Leigh and Liverpool Walton.

    I wonder what the price on the double Lab hold seats in that would be?
    Pretty short.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    isam said:

    Is anyone playing in Shadsy's Stoke fourth-place market?

    Liberal Democrats 1.36
    Conservatives 4.00
    UKIP 7.00
    Labour 17.00
    Greens 26.00

    Hope not, its a 122% book #defensive

    What price do you think UKIP should be to come 2nd and to come 3rd Richard?

    I don't think the Greens are 26.0 - they've put in a paper candidate (Couldn't attend hustings due to work); and made no effort in the seat.
    The other four parties have made an effort of one sort or another so will all beat the greens.
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    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.

    I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.

    38 in my Year 11 maths class.
    So that's why you couldn't get into Fen Poly and had to slum it at Cowley Tech.
    Ha ha. No. It's why I ended up doing a geography degree. When you're in a class of 38, it's very easy to be intimidated by those who have the advantage of having help with maths at home. I didn't realize how good I was at maths - it's what I wish I had done.
    I loved Maths, alongside physics, they were in my top choices of what I was contemplating reading at university, alongside law and history/the classic.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005

    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, I slightly misread the bet. It's Lab-Copeland, NotLab-Stoke (so a UKIP win pays out, if Labour take Copeland).

    Mr. Isam, aye, that was my thinking.

    Oh - well that is very different !

    9.7 is the correct price . So the 14-1 is well worth taking, if you assume no correlation.

    I think there is, and it is negative in this case - so I'm swerving it.
    If all things go to plan, we should have another double header in June. Leigh and Liverpool Walton.

    I wonder what the price on the double Lab hold seats in that would be?
    Depends on what happens friday morning.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Mr. Pulpstar, I slightly misread the bet. It's Lab-Copeland, NotLab-Stoke (so a UKIP win pays out, if Labour take Copeland).

    Mr. Isam, aye, that was my thinking.

    Oh - well that is very different !

    9.7 is the correct price . So the 14-1 is well worth taking, if you assume no correlation.

    I think there is, and it is negative in this case - so I'm swerving it.
    If all things go to plan, we should have another double header in June. Leigh and Liverpool Walton.

    I wonder what the price on the double Lab hold seats in that would be?
    Pretty short.

    I did say to Alastair Meeks earlier on today that in 2012 the Stoke/Copeland double would have been something like 1/25.

    That's how much Corbyn has moved Labour.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,158
    Hyperbole. Theresa May's Black Wednesday will be the day she announces she's instructed the European Commission that she is revoking Article 50.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.

    got to be worth a flutter
This discussion has been closed.