I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
I have posted my predictions for Copeland and Stoke both on here and the Vote2012 website . I don't recall seeing yours though .
For everyone else:
"Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4 "
So for a Mid-term PM losing 2% in Copeland versus the GE is not much of a "vote loser" is it?
It is when all the hype is that Corbyn is useless and the Conservatives are heading for a famous victory .
Candidate in Stoke a complete dud and very lucky to be up against Billy Liar.
While the right of the party continues to pick the most anti Corbyn candidate Jezza is safe as candidate gets blame with majority of members.
Of course wins count as Corbyn ones.
Blair and Mandelsons suicide bombing also helpful to Jezzas survival
I agree that whatever the result, Corbyn is safe. He had a NC vote by the vast majority of his MPs and didn't budge. A couple of byelections are not going to trouble him.
The thing Jezza is doing right is letting the local parties choose their candidates, as he has done in all of the seats and has also been up to campaign with each. I think that the divisions within Labour are not chasms, and the problems quite fixeable.
Is Snell a dud? or is he just refreshingly outspoken? It is worth noting that the many tweets he has been pilloried for long antedate his selection. He has played a straight bat since.
@GillTroughton is as straight as an arrow. Nothing in her twitter going back years.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
That's 6/month, so at that rate only another 500 months - 42 years to go! Do you think they'll have had a female leader by then?
The number of councillors today is around 20% smaller than it used to be 20 years ago , creation of unitaries etc . The pattern of the annual elections has also changed with more councils moving from annual elections to elections every 4 years . Over half of all English local elections are now fought every 4th year so 2019 will be the next big year which may well see 1,000 plus Lib Dem gains , sounds a lot but is only 3 per council on average .
What's the difference between now and 10 years ago, when the LD decline happened? The LD tally fell by more than 50%
There are some PB Tories on here who really seem to have it in for PM May, so I'm intrigued, who would you want as PM out of the current crop of Tory MPs? Or is it just because Corbyn is so bad that you feel you can make trouble without any real comebacks?
Some of us are members of the Provisional Wing of Continuity Cameron Army, we'd like Dave back.
Nobody made him quit and he promised he wouldn't...
Have stuck a fiver on the Tories in Stoke at 19's thanks to my fellow PBers.
got to be worth a flutter
Yes, I took the opportunity to lay any other on the double and back Tory on the stoke market for a larger profit. (I'd done the reverse a week or two ago where I laid of LD and Tory on stoke)
A Tory or LD victory in stoke could be the best result for us pbers as we're likely to get renewed activity on next lab leader and possibly a ukip leadership event too.
Yes, these by-elections are entertaining and seemingly profitable. Oddly, I am very good at numbers...but I don't understand betting beyond the 2-1 etc. I think I get laying, but the rest is anathema.
And I have only bet twice in my life: I won £14,000 (Lottery) and 100 quid (Grand National), both on a £10 stake.
I had a couple of profitable years "matched betting" via moneysavingsxpert forums. That's when I understood the numbers element. I don't get the mentality that gamblers have and have been astonished that people have been backing lab/lab on the doubles market at a lower price than they could have had lab on Copeland (via betfair anyway)
Try laying every option in a market, it's quite fun and a real maths challenge
I think I understand. Which betting orgs do I go to? Ladbrokes?
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
I have posted my predictions for Copeland and Stoke both on here and the Vote2012 website . I don't recall seeing yours though .
For everyone else:
"Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 4 Others 4 Stoke Lab 34 Lib Dem 20 UKIP 19 Con 16 Green 3 Others 8"
I do agree, but why the social media excitement that Stoke is in play, I wonder.
A quintupling of the Lib Dem vote share in Stoke will be spectacular!
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
That's 6/month, so at that rate only another 500 months - 42 years to go! Do you think they'll have had a female leader by then?
The number of councillors today is around 20% smaller than it used to be 20 years ago , creation of unitaries etc . The pattern of the annual elections has also changed with more councils moving from annual elections to elections every 4 years . Over half of all English local elections are now fought every 4th year so 2019 will be the next big year which may well see 1,000 plus Lib Dem gains , sounds a lot but is only 3 per council on average .
What's the difference between now and 10 years ago, when the LD decline happened? The LD tally fell by more than 50%
Just looked it up, from about 22k in 2004 to 20k in 2016. A 10% fall, to be compared with the 60% fall of the LDs.
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
That's 6/month, so at that rate only another 500 months - 42 years to go! Do you think they'll have had a female leader by then?
The number of councillors today is around 20% smaller than it used to be 20 years ago , creation of unitaries etc . The pattern of the annual elections has also changed with more councils moving from annual elections to elections every 4 years . Over half of all English local elections are now fought every 4th year so 2019 will be the next big year which may well see 1,000 plus Lib Dem gains , sounds a lot but is only 3 per council on average .
What's the difference between now and 10 years ago, when the LD decline happened? The LD tally fell by more than 50%
The Lib Dem decline started in 2011 and we all know the reason for that .
Candidate in Stoke a complete dud and very lucky to be up against Billy Liar.
While the right of the party continues to pick the most anti Corbyn candidate Jezza is safe as candidate gets blame with majority of members.
Of course wins count as Corbyn ones.
Blair and Mandelsons suicide bombing also helpful to Jezzas survival
I agree that whatever the result, Corbyn is safe. He had a NC vote by the vast majority of his MPs and didn't budge. A couple of byelections are not going to trouble him.
The thing Jezza is doing right is letting the local parties choose their candidates, as he has done in all of the seats and has also been up to campaign with each. I think that the divisions within Labour are not chasms, and the problems quite fixeable.
Is Snell a dud? or is he just refreshingly outspoken? It is worth noting that the many tweets he has been pilloried for long antedate his selection. He has played a straight bat since.
@GillTroughton is as straight as an arrow. Nothing in her twitter going back years.
People like Corbyn have to be prised from office by something mechanical. He's too self centred to go of his own volition. I wonder whether his diminishing fan club realized he was going to become so fond of the trappings of office
I still think Theresa May visiting Stoke this week will ended up being bracketed in the same batshit craziness of Dick Cheney campaigning in Hawaii at the end of the 2004 election.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that visit in itself, because I think she's the kind of leader who will feel duty-bound to visit in order to show support for the troops on the ground.
May has spent years working with the constituency parties - unlike her predecessor - so I expect we'll see a lot more of her at bye-elections - even very long shots. The local parties won't forget.
The Conservatives used to win council by elections when Cameron was leader , it will eventually sink in that their current leader is a vote loser .
Apologies but I missed your predictions for how much Tory vote share will fall in tomorrow's bye-elections.
The Lib Dems used to have 5,000 councillors, now they are down to 2,000
But don't fear, they've won 12 back in local by-elections this year alone.
That's 6/month, so at that rate only another 500 months - 42 years to go! Do you think they'll have had a female leader by then?
The number of councillors today is around 20% smaller than it used to be 20 years ago , creation of unitaries etc . The pattern of the annual elections has also changed with more councils moving from annual elections to elections every 4 years . Over half of all English local elections are now fought every 4th year so 2019 will be the next big year which may well see 1,000 plus Lib Dem gains , sounds a lot but is only 3 per council on average .
What's the difference between now and 10 years ago, when the LD decline happened? The LD tally fell by more than 50%
The Lib Dem decline started in 2011 and we all know the reason for that .
Had already lost eight hundred seats from 2004 and up to and including the 2010 election, before the coalition was even a glint in Cameron's eye.
Seville vs Leicester is nailed on for Seville. I am on the Seville -2 handicap. If Leicester get away with losing 2 nil then I would be happy. I would be ecstatic with a goal!
Incidentally, I think Seville offer good value for winning the CL. They are nailed on to progress, are good at European knockout competitions, flying high in the Spanish League, rivals misfiring and currently 28 on Betfair. Worth a fiver at least.
Candidate in Stoke a complete dud and very lucky to be up against Billy Liar.
While the right of the party continues to pick the most anti Corbyn candidate Jezza is safe as candidate gets blame with majority of members.
Of course wins count as Corbyn ones.
Blair and Mandelsons suicide bombing also helpful to Jezzas survival
If Corbyn loses both by-elections to the Tories and tries to hang on then 60 or more Labour MPs could resign the whip, form an SDP MKII and their leader would become the new leader of the opposition. There's plenty of time between now and the next election to build a new Labour party and consign the old one to the dustbin. It won't come to that but that's the nuclear option.
It would need more than 60 given that Labour would still be left with 170 MPs.
Comments
The thing Jezza is doing right is letting the local parties choose their candidates, as he has done in all of the seats and has also been up to campaign with each. I think that the divisions within Labour are not chasms, and the problems quite fixeable.
Is Snell a dud? or is he just refreshingly outspoken? It is worth noting that the many tweets he has been pilloried for long antedate his selection. He has played a straight bat since.
@GillTroughton is as straight as an arrow. Nothing in her twitter going back years.
That is all.
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If it's got pineapple on it, then it ain't a pizza.
Seville vs Leicester is nailed on for Seville. I am on the Seville -2 handicap. If Leicester get away with losing 2 nil then I would be happy. I would be ecstatic with a goal!
Incidentally, I think Seville offer good value for winning the CL. They are nailed on to progress, are good at European knockout competitions, flying high in the Spanish League, rivals misfiring and currently 28 on Betfair. Worth a fiver at least.
If anyone was going to turn to terrorism it is likely to be them.