politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leade

At the weekend I had a bet at 9/4 with William Hill that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader to exit his post. That’s since tightened to 6/4 which still looks a good punt.
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1st!0
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2nd. Like the Tories or Lib Dems in Stoke.0
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Diego Costa's copy of the Echo?0
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The guy is a pillock.
That said, UKIP only seem to have pillocks to choose from as leader. Give it up guys. You've had your moment in the sun. There's nothing left to do, nothing left to achieve. Go home.0 -
FPT but more on topic here re: Basingstoke by-election:
I did a bit of digging and the councillor resigned on 5th Jan for no given reason, looks like he genuinely did just want to spend more time with his family.justin124 said:
Labour came very close to winning this ward in both 2014 and 2011 - though they have really romped home this time.Sandpit said:
Do we even know what happened in the ward in Basingstoke? Usually there's local factors behind such unusual looking swings, such as a scandal that resulted in the resignation of the councillor which caused the vacancy.Sean_F said:
Bear in mind that Parliamentary elections (and Assembly elections) don't count. Only local by-elections are "real elections."CD13 said:Mr Senior,
"No it is an anti May swing . She is poisonous to the Conservative vote'"
Is that's why her personal ratings are so crap?
I think she's over-rated, but you have to face facts.
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/15022805.Tory_councillor_resigns_position/
The only news article in the local paper was one where Labour were campaigning against a possible school closure in the ward, as well as the introduction of fortnightly bin collections. There's also an ongoing row about proposed rising parking charges in the town centre. Maybe these are what swung the vote behind Lab this time - straightforward local politics resulting a a win for the local Opposition.
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/15100870.Leaflet_sparks_spat_in_lead_up_to_ballot/0 -
I'm sure someone has posted this but it's brilliant. The Mail's campaign against Blair for compensating the ISIS man. Apparently the the campaign for his compensation was led by the Daily Mail! What's more it was agreed by the Conservatives.
You really couldn't make it up
Time for Dacre to answer some questions
https://twitter.com/tonyblairoffice0 -
Not May? But, but, but - she personally and it was all her own fault lost a council bye-election in Basingstoke last night and is heading for fourth in Stoke & Copeland.....or something...0
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Professor Nuttall will be a great loss to UKIP and a great gain for academia.0
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Petition to replace the House of Lords with an elected body:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/170686
Interesting that it seems to be getting more support in Tory areas so far:
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=1706860 -
I think Shadsy did it for a joke, I didn't back it.Sandpit said:
I did back myself at 100/1 to win Islington South and Finsbury Park, but pulled out before the selection. Not the shrewdest bet ever placed!!0 -
Farron Fails Again.
https://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/winklebury-by-election
824 Lab, 4742 Con, LD 42. Turnout 28.5%0 -
Oh for f*** sake. That last thing this country needs in the middle of Brexit and economic turmoil is a huge constitutional change in the House of Lords. Right idea long term, wrong now.AndyJS said:Petition to replace the House of Lords with an elected body:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/170686
Interesting that it seems to be getting more support in Tory areas so far:
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=1706860 -
The Supreme Court supports Mrs May's shameful minimum income law for foreign spouses
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/supreme-courts-ruling-foreign-spouses-breach-human-rights/
This morning the court upheld a rule that forbids British citizens bringing a foreign spouse into the country unless they (the British citizen, not the foreign spouse) is earning at least £18,600 a year (or £22,400 if they have one or more children)0 -
Todays Opinionway poll puts Macron up one point and ahead of Fillon again
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_10 -
4742 Con ?dr_spyn said:Farron Fails Again.
https://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/winklebury-by-election
824 Lab, 4742 Con, LD 42. Turnout 28.5%0 -
Why is it shameful.AlsoIndigo said:The Supreme Court supports Mrs May's shameful minimum income law for foreign spouses
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/supreme-courts-ruling-foreign-spouses-breach-human-rights/
This morning the court upheld a rule that forbids British citizens bringing a foreign spouse into the country unless they (the British citizen, not the foreign spouse) is earning at least £18,600 a year (or £22,400 if they have one or more children)
My son who married a Canadian 18 months ago took over 15 months to get the ok to join his wife in Canada from New Zealand but she has to sponsor him for three years so that he cannot claim any benefits from the government
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Will he be stepping down to spend more time on finishing his PhD? Or to resume his professional football career...I hear Sutton Utd are looking for a new reserve goalkeeper.0
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Nuttall is a laughing stock. Apart from Farage, who else is in the queue of numpties for the spot?0
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Bayrou announcement today.
I reckon he doesn't stand, but holds back on an endorsement at this time.
Any other guesses?0 -
Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out. – Good call, his standing within the party is already in doubt and a poor by-election result for UKIP will destabilise him further.
Suzanne Evans to step into the breach?0 -
I agree but the labour candidate is a disgrace. Poor Stoke - deserves so much morefoxinsoxuk said:Nuttall is a laughing stock. Apart from Farage, who else is in the queue of numpties for the spot?
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Hard to disagree with that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree but the labour candidate is a disgrace. Poor Stoke - deserves so much morefoxinsoxuk said:Nuttall is a laughing stock. Apart from Farage, who else is in the queue of numpties for the spot?
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'economic turmoil'rottenborough said:
Oh for f*** sake. That last thing this country needs in the middle of Brexit and economic turmoil is a huge constitutional change in the House of Lords. Right idea long term, wrong now.AndyJS said:Petition to replace the House of Lords with an elected body:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/170686
Interesting that it seems to be getting more support in Tory areas so far:
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=1706860 -
I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.0
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FFS Con 472.Big_G_NorthWales said:
4742 Con ?dr_spyn said:Farron Fails Again.
https://www.basingstoke.gov.uk/winklebury-by-election
824 Lab, 4742 Con, LD 42. Turnout 28.5%0 -
5/1 May is a terrible price, what do they think she is going to call an early election and then lose it?!
If Corbyn is still there she wins, no matter when the election is and if it's in 2020 she's there until at least 2022.
All four of the others could be gone by that time.0 -
Evans would be great.SimonStClare said:Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out. – Good call, his standing within the party is already in doubt and a poor by-election result for UKIP will destabilise him further.
Suzanne Evans to step into the breach?0 -
Sturgeon at 8-1 has appeal - 2nd Sindy ref could see her out.DeClare said:5/1 May is a terrible price, what do they think she is going to call an early election and then lose it?!
If Corbyn is still there she wins, no matter when the election is and if it's in 2020 she's there until at least 2022.
All four of the others could be gone by that time.0 -
Just so we're all clear:
Nicola Sturgeon advises senior SNP figures: Don’t call it ‘indyref2’
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15107713.Nicola_Sturgeon_advises_senior_SNP_figures__Don___t_call_it____indyref2___/
so it's 'IndyRefNew'......0 -
FPT
The difference seems to be less pronounced in France (already they have much higher turnout, 80% in 2012)HYUFD said:
Certainly to get to the runoff yesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, assuming (as here) the French elderly turn out more, that's good for Fillon.
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_2ndtourelectionpresidentielle-6mai2012.pdf
On page 8 of this report they break down the abstentionists by age group.
18-24 ans: 28%
25-34 ans: 24%
35-44 ans: 24%
45-59 ans: 17%
60+ ans: 13%
So while the elderly turn out more, the gap doesn't seem to be anywhere near as much as in the UK, so the elderly vote turnout will probably help Fillon less than it would help May for example.0 -
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
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She wouldn't last if she somehow got elected. Farage and his allies don't exactly rate her.Dixie said:
Evans would be great.SimonStClare said:Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out. – Good call, his standing within the party is already in doubt and a poor by-election result for UKIP will destabilise him further.
Suzanne Evans to step into the breach?0 -
So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.0
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Getting rather fed up with Mikes obsession with Nuttall. I personally don't see 6-4 as value in any way shape or form, but as usual Mike is talking his own book up. Whatever happened to the great "independant" blogger Mike Smithson0
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Any number of reasons.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why is it shameful.AlsoIndigo said:The Supreme Court supports Mrs May's shameful minimum income law for foreign spouses
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/supreme-courts-ruling-foreign-spouses-breach-human-rights/
This morning the court upheld a rule that forbids British citizens bringing a foreign spouse into the country unless they (the British citizen, not the foreign spouse) is earning at least £18,600 a year (or £22,400 if they have one or more children)
My son who married a Canadian 18 months ago took over 15 months to get the ok to join his wife in Canada from New Zealand but she has to sponsor him for three years so that he cannot claim any benefits from the government
1. The income of the foreign spouse is not taken into consideration abroad, neither are the earning prospects or any job offer in the UK.
2. Income earned outside the UK by the applicant or the spouse is not considered in the vast number of cases
3. Savings that have not been deposited in a international bank for at least 6 months are not considered
3. Couples living abroad which were married, and indeed had children before the act was even considered, and rightly expected to move back to the UK at a later date, are unable to relocate to the UK without passing the test
4. Couples with a UK applicant and UK children but foreign mother allows the applicant and children to move to the UK and having to leave the spouse behind.
5. EU (Non-UK) applicants with non-EU spouses don't have to meet the requirements.
For the full monty check out https://www.jcwi.org.uk/policy/reports/impact-children-family-migration-rules
To quote from the judgement:
There can be no doubt that the MIR has caused, and will continue to cause, significant hardship to many thousands of couples who have good reasons for wanting to make their lives together in this country, and to their children. There are several types of family, not illustrated in the cases before us, upon whom the MIR will have a particularly harsh effect. These include British citizens who have been living and working abroad, have married or formed stable relationships there, and now wish to return to their home country. Many of these relationships will have been formed before the new Rules were introduced or even publicly proposed. They also include couples who formed their relationships before the changes in the Rules were introduced and who had every expectation that the foreign partner would be allowed to come here. Of particular concern is the impact upon the children of these couples, many or even most of whom will be British citizens themselves.
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True but when he is neck and neck with Macron to make the runoff that could be crucialParistonda said:FPT
The difference seems to be less pronounced in France (already they have much higher turnout, 80% in 2012)HYUFD said:
Certainly to get to the runoff yesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, assuming (as here) the French elderly turn out more, that's good for Fillon.
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/attachments/rapport_2ndtourelectionpresidentielle-6mai2012.pdf
On page 8 of this report they break down the abstentionists by age group.
18-24 ans: 28%
25-34 ans: 24%
35-44 ans: 24%
45-59 ans: 17%
60+ ans: 13%
So while the elderly turn out more, the gap doesn't seem to be anywhere near as much as in the UK, so the elderly vote turnout will probably help Fillon less than it would help May for example.0 -
Hopefully as we leave the EU there can be a more nuanced approach taken to issues like this, with more control over whom we allow and don't allow to move to and settle in the UK.AlsoIndigo said:The Supreme Court supports Mrs May's shameful minimum income law for foreign spouses
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/supreme-courts-ruling-foreign-spouses-breach-human-rights/
This morning the court upheld a rule that forbids British citizens bringing a foreign spouse into the country unless they (the British citizen, not the foreign spouse) is earning at least £18,600 a year (or £22,400 if they have one or more children)
The current system is a mess, full of anomalies, for example with regard to non-EU spouses of other (non-UK) EU countries, who are allowed to settle in the UK with no permission required. It's also not allowed to discriminate against a first-generation immigrant wanting to bring an arranged wife from abroad, as against, oh I dunno, a random example, someone born in Britain of British parents but who works abroad for a while and gets married to someone he meets there. Can't think why I chose that as an example.
Also, income earned abroad or even a job offer in the UK isn't enough to satisfy authorities. Don't start on self-employment or company directors either, that's another nightmare.
On the face of it, the majority of those who were petitioning the Surpreme Court were people who would clearly be a burden to the State.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/22/supreme-court-ruling-due-challenge-foreign-spouse-income-limit2/0 -
Both Tony Blair and Paul Staines should be regarded with a great deal of caution. But if their stories are tallying, there might just be something in it.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
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Like you!SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
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18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"0 -
Yet they apparently rated Nuttall ...Essexit said:
She wouldn't last if she somehow got elected. Farage and his allies don't exactly rate her.Dixie said:
Evans would be great.SimonStClare said:Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out. – Good call, his standing within the party is already in doubt and a poor by-election result for UKIP will destabilise him further.
Suzanne Evans to step into the breach?0 -
It was probably one of the many stinking piles of poo left on the desks of incoming ministers in May 2010. Mrs May would have been acting on the advice of the civil service and home office lawyers when she signed off on the payment.Pulpstar said:
Both Tony Blair and Paul Staines should be regarded with a great deal of caution. But if their stories are tallying, there might just be something in it.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
Bliar doesn't get to walk away smelling of roses, although his ire at the Daily Mail does seem quite reasonable if the facts are as he stated.0 -
Feel free to post your own betting tips.staceyj said:Getting rather fed up with Mikes obsession with Nuttall. I personally don't see 6-4 as value in any way shape or form, but as usual Mike is talking his own book up. Whatever happened to the great "independant" blogger Mike Smithson
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The Labour candidate just posts the same kind of stuff the good denizens of pb post and retweet themselves every day. I'm not saying they couldn't have found someone better but hey, he just seems to be a man of the times to me.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree but the labour candidate is a disgrace. Poor Stoke - deserves so much morefoxinsoxuk said:Nuttall is a laughing stock. Apart from Farage, who else is in the queue of numpties for the spot?
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OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"0 -
Wasn’t there a group action for compensation by former Guantanamo detainees rumbling, long before the Coalition took power? More inherited merde from the previous administration.Sandpit said:
It was probably one of the many stinking piles of poo left on the desks of incoming ministers in May 2010. Mrs May would have been acting on the advice of the civil service and home office lawyers when she signed off on the payment.Pulpstar said:
Both Tony Blair and Paul Staines should be regarded with a great deal of caution. But if their stories are tallying, there might just be something in it.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
Bliar doesn't get to walk away smelling of roses, although his ire at the Daily Mail does seem quite reasonable if the facts are as he stated.0 -
The problem is that there is a great deal of squabbling within the party, that's why Diane James didn't last long and also why Susanne Evans didn't win.TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
There is a vacancy for a party on the centre-right but it needs a leader who can deal with the big egos and stop the in-fighting.
Nuttall has been a fool for telling lies or exaggerating, these days everything can be checked and if you're involved in politics there are people who watch you closely and listen to everything you say and then check.
It's much easier just to tell the truth at all times and be thought boring, after a while people will begin to respect your honesty.0 -
Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
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O/T ... a bit anyway. What do you well-informed chaps think of the proposal in Essex for the PCC to take over as the Fire and well as the Police authority?HurstLlama said:
OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
Going out for an hour just now, so if any questions I'll deal with them when I return.0 -
Each Service does its own thing, with a little bit of cooperation thrown in. There's a lot of empire building in all aspects of the fire service, too many chiefs, not enough Indians, (literally!)HurstLlama said:
OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"0 -
I wish them every success, looks to be a massive gap in the market to me.Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/0 -
I think the issue was not whether HMG had a genuine defence against the claims for compensation but how much about methods and capabilities would have to be exposed in order to defend the actions. In short it was judged preferable to pay out a few million than have the abilities of the intelligence agencies handed over to terrorist organisations.Sandpit said:
It was probably one of the many stinking piles of poo left on the desks of incoming ministers in May 2010. Mrs May would have been acting on the advice of the civil service and home office lawyers when she signed off on the payment.Pulpstar said:
Both Tony Blair and Paul Staines should be regarded with a great deal of caution. But if their stories are tallying, there might just be something in it.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
Bliar doesn't get to walk away smelling of roses, although his ire at the Daily Mail does seem quite reasonable if the facts are as he stated.0 -
John Harris's video report from Stoke Central:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2017/feb/22/they-dont-care-about-us-the-anger-and-apathy-behind-the-stoke-byelection-video0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/22/paul-nuttall-ukip-success-blurring-truth-hillsborough-nigel-farage
Interesting piece on the Nuttall phenomenon.0 -
Sadly, that looks like rather a naive view nowadays.DeClare said:
It's much easier just to tell the truth at all times and be thought boring, after a while people will begin to respect your honesty.
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It might also be time for us to look at those laws again. No such payouts are necessary to protect intelligence services in other countries, notably in Obama's USA.HurstLlama said:
I think the issue was not whether HMG had a genuine defence against the claims for compensation but how much about methods and capabilities would have to be exposed in order to defend the actions. In short it was judged preferable to pay out a few million than have the abilities of the intelligence agencies handed over to terrorist organisations.Sandpit said:
It was probably one of the many stinking piles of poo left on the desks of incoming ministers in May 2010. Mrs May would have been acting on the advice of the civil service and home office lawyers when she signed off on the payment.Pulpstar said:
Both Tony Blair and Paul Staines should be regarded with a great deal of caution. But if their stories are tallying, there might just be something in it.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
Bliar doesn't get to walk away smelling of roses, although his ire at the Daily Mail does seem quite reasonable if the facts are as he stated.0 -
Not really a fan of it. Scope for lots of conflicts and would our budget get pilfered by the coppers? I think there are plenty of good reason for more joined up thinking regarding the Emergency Services, and I think Fire and Rescue and Ambulance Service would both benefit by being under the same umbrella. We have a good reputation in local communities, whereas the Police might be perceived as the "enemy", and being joined with the local police authority might jeopardise us doing community safety work, and close a few doors.OldKingCole said:
O/T ... a bit anyway. What do you well-informed chaps think of the proposal in Essex for the PCC to take over as the Fire and well as the Police authority?HurstLlama said:
OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
Going out for an hour just now, so if any questions I'll deal with them when I return.0 -
He was declared not to be a security risk by then home secretary David Blunkett after lobbying by Tony Blair's government led to his release by the United States.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
Former terror law watchdog Lord Carlile said al-Harith had 'plainly' been a terrorist.
He said the Government may have been right to pay the money to protect state secrets
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4248464/Former-Guantanamo-detainee-plainly-terrorist.html0 -
I disagree with the header that Nuttall would be under pressure to resign as leader even if he wins but I think that is an entirely academic issue. He is not going to win, probably not even come second. It looks a good bet, may even pay off on Friday.0
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Oops:
14:09 Tony Blair’s statement about Fiddler/al-Harith case and the Daily Mail includes a sentence accusing the paper of running entitled: “Still Think He Wasn’t A Danger, Mr Blair? Fury at Labour government’s £1m compensation for innocent Brit.” (See 12.52pm.)
Blair was wrong about that. That headline is from the Sun.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/22/pmqs-may-corbyn-ivan-rogers--eu-ambassador-ivan-rogers-questions-by-commons-brexit-committee-politics-live
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The Daily Mail was a main cheerleader for his release in 2004 and was the one using his continued detention at Guantanamo to beat up Labour.CarlottaVance said:
He was declared not to be a security risk by then home secretary David Blunkett after lobbying by Tony Blair's government led to his release by the United States.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
Former terror law watchdog Lord Carlile said al-Harith had 'plainly' been a terrorist.
He said the Government may have been right to pay the money to protect state secrets
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4248464/Former-Guantanamo-detainee-plainly-terrorist.html0 -
Certainly keep the traffic police at arm's length, a police sergeant friend of mine bemoans at some length how hard it is to get people to talk when knocking on doors making enquiries, because too many of them have been pulled over for doing 73mph on the motorway, and tar all police with the same brush.TwistedFireStopper said:
Not really a fan of it. Scope for lots of conflicts and would our budget get pilfered by the coppers? I think there are plenty of good reason for more joined up thinking regarding the Emergency Services, and I think Fire and Rescue and Ambulance Service would both benefit by being under the same umbrella. We have a good reputation in local communities, whereas the Police might be perceived as the "enemy", and being joined with the local police authority might jeopardise us doing community safety work, and close a few doors.OldKingCole said:
O/T ... a bit anyway. What do you well-informed chaps think of the proposal in Essex for the PCC to take over as the Fire and well as the Police authority?HurstLlama said:
OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
Going out for an hour just now, so if any questions I'll deal with them when I return.0 -
O/T
With the good results announced by Lloyds today, it would be a good time for the government to offload a large portion of their remaining shares0 -
Hmmm
The Bolt Report
WATCH: Islamic community leader @keysartrad says beating women is 'a last resort'. Live on #TheBoltReport on @SkyNewsAust https://t.co/ZsWICdgbbR0 -
Thanks, Mr. Stopper. I rather thought that might be the case. The qualities of the very senior management I and my colleagues found in the Fire Service even made those of the police look good.TwistedFireStopper said:
Each Service does its own thing, with a little bit of cooperation thrown in. There's a lot of empire building in all aspects of the fire service, too many chiefs, not enough Indians, (literally!)HurstLlama said:
OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
As an aside, how after all the cuts to local government budgets, we still have two brigades in Sussex is astonishing. Two sets of chief officers, two lots of HQ staff, two lots of procurement policies, two training schools, two sets of standard operating procedures. The waste is appalling. I know how it has come about and it is not only empire defence at Chief Officer level the local authorities are as much to blame with councilors defending their own turf and power bases, but it really isn't good enough. Scarce resources are being sucked away from service delivery into HQs that are 50% unnecessary. The police forces in Sussex were forced into amalgamation in 1968, that the fire brigades continue to be separate nearly fifty years later is absurd.0 -
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/0 -
No arguments from me!HurstLlama said:
Thanks, Mr. Stopper. I rather thought that might be the case. The qualities of the very senior management I and my colleagues found in the Fire Service even made those of the police look good.TwistedFireStopper said:
Each Service does its own thing, with a little bit of cooperation thrown in. There's a lot of empire building in all aspects of the fire service, too many chiefs, not enough Indians, (literally!)HurstLlama said:
OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
As an aside, how after all the cuts to local government budgets, we still have two brigades in Sussex is astonishing. Two sets of chief officers, two lots of HQ staff, two lots of procurement policies, two training schools, two sets of standard operating procedures. The waste is appalling. I know how it has come about and it is not only empire defence at Chief Officer level the local authorities are as much to blame with councilors defending their own turf and power bases, but it really isn't good enough. Scarce resources are being sucked away from service delivery into HQs that are 50% unnecessary. The police forces in Sussex were forced into amalgamation in 1968, that the fire brigades continue to be separate nearly fifty years later is absurd.0 -
16 grand in London minimum. 20 grand average.PlatoSaid said:
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/0 -
per annumDixie said:
16 grand in London minimum. 20 grand average.PlatoSaid said:
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/0 -
As anticipated, Q4 2016 has been revised up to 0.7% growth: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39049073
So we are basically where we were thought to be before Brexit. I heard the Governor explaining that this is because of the action taken by the BoE in light of the vote. IIRC that amounted to a 0.25% cut in interest rates and a suggestion (not yet acted on so far as I am aware) that we might have some more QE. Not his most convincing statement.0 -
See preceding post to yours about inaccuracies in Blair's dodgy dossier statementJonathanD said:
The Daily Mail was a main cheerleader for his release in 2004 and was the one using his continued detention at Guantanamo to beat up Labour.CarlottaVance said:
He was declared not to be a security risk by then home secretary David Blunkett after lobbying by Tony Blair's government led to his release by the United States.SouthamObserver said:So, according to Guido, it was Theresa May who signed off on the ISIS man's £1 million. Well, well. Presumably, this is one of those times when Guido is an untrustworthy source who should never, ever be quoted by anyone serious.
Former terror law watchdog Lord Carlile said al-Harith had 'plainly' been a terrorist.
He said the Government may have been right to pay the money to protect state secrets
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4248464/Former-Guantanamo-detainee-plainly-terrorist.html0 -
Pulpstar said:
I wish them every success, looks to be a massive gap in the market to me.Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
Bring in Stelios Haji-IoannouPulpstar said:
I wish them every success, looks to be a massive gap in the market to me.Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/0 -
Well, Mr. Cole many years ago the police forces in many parts of England also ran the ambulance services through the Watch Committees and County Authorities, so there is a precedent for combining more than one emergency service under a single authority. The fire Service was never part of that scheme though.OldKingCole said:
O/T ... a bit anyway. What do you well-informed chaps think of the proposal in Essex for the PCC to take over as the Fire and well as the Police authority?HurstLlama said:
OK, thanks. No surprise for me at least. Just out of idle curiosity has the fire service sorted out shared basic training yet or is each brigade still doing its own thing (I did some work as a consultant at the strategic leadership level a few years ago and wonder if anything really came of it).TwistedFireStopper said:
18 months ago, we were all anointed with the black spot of redundancy. Now, we struggle to turn pumps out if we get much more than a bit o' burnt toast.HurstLlama said:
Glad you are here, Mr Stopper. I see your Brigade is recruiting again, after an alleged five year hiatus. What is that all about?TwistedFireStopper said:I can't see Nuttall lasting long, especially if he doesn't get elected. His actions and words have been easy targets, and he just doesn't have the feel of a credible leader. Maybe no one can actually lead UKIP as there doesn't really seem to be a need for them post the referendum.
It's actually only a ruse to try and up the diversity quotas, we only really want to recruit from certain demographics. As one of our senior managers told a certain table full of stale pale males a couple of weeks ago, "We want to recruit firefighters for the next 30 years, not the last 30 years................"
Going out for an hour just now, so if any questions I'll deal with them when I return.
On the whole, I would be against giving the office of PCC greater scope at this time. The role has yet to bed in and prove itself effective in the job that it has now, I think it would be a bad idea to give people who are struggling with their present job more responsibilities.0 -
My alma mater was a day school, fees were £500 a term when I started in 1989 and around £650 a term when I left in 1996.PlatoSaid said:
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
£4,000 a term today.0 -
0
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Same here, my alma mater charges £4,000 a term now, and you're a year old than me.Sandpit said:
My alma mater was a day school, fees were £500 a term when I started in 1989 and around £650 a term when I left in 1996.PlatoSaid said:
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
£4,000 a term today.
I was in the last year that got their uni fees paid for, my father often observed Uni cost him less than schooling me did.0 -
She was the one who was in charge when the Brazilian electrician got shot. Public sector accountability at work as usual.TheScreamingEagles said:Dick head of The Met now
https://twitter.com/skymarkwhite/status/8344094552572682240 -
FPT local elections, note that Labour lost 4,000 seats between 1997 and 2004, and still won two more general elections (including a net loss of 190 in local by-elections)
By way of comparison, the Conservatives have lost 800 seats since 2010.0 -
A Good choice, the death of an innocent Brazilian should not hinder one’s career...TheScreamingEagles said:Dick head of The Met now
https://twitter.com/skymarkwhite/status/8344094552572682240 -
I guess that is going to be quite a controversial appointment.TheScreamingEagles said:Dick head of The Met now
https://twitter.com/skymarkwhite/status/8344094552572682240 -
But almost certainly with far smaller classes than 30 years ago, which means more teachers, and a wider range of sports coached by ex-internationals with more equipment, including all the machines you'd expect in a high-end executive health club or whatever they call gyms these days, and a laptop and tablet for every child -- while in state schools they still have to use pens!Dixie said:
16 grand in London minimum. 20 grand average.PlatoSaid said:
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
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This is rather fun
http://thefederalist.com/2017/02/22/media-hottakes-wed-see-chronicles-narnia-released-year/#.WK2iD67RkAQ.twitter
"The American Conservative: “Narnia and the Problem of Borders”
By not effectively maintaining border security, King Tirian ensured his nation would be invaded and plundered by the Calormenes. Also, Archenland should’ve been Narnia’s Benedict Option.
The Atlantic: “How World War II Shaped Narnia”
One of those very comprehensive and thoroughly researched articles that’s so long it’s divided up by roman numerals. It’s fascinating, but you have to go to class at some point. Most of your social media friends will share this article after reading about a third of the way through, and nod sagaciously when asked about it.
Breitbart: “Narnia Ignored Calormene Jihad, Innocent People Died”
The nation should’ve gotten smart and gotten tough. Also, Soros would’ve funded the Calormenes.
BuzzFeed: “20 Times Eustace and Jill Almost Kissed”
A series of GIFs with inconsistent formatting obviously poached from Tumblr. About ten of them can be viewed as vaguely romantic, if you stretch the definition...0 -
Private school, explains your obsession with ancient civilizations and raunchinessTheScreamingEagles said:
Same here, my alma mater charges £4,000 a term now, and you're a year old than me.Sandpit said:
My alma mater was a day school, fees were £500 a term when I started in 1989 and around £650 a term when I left in 1996.PlatoSaid said:
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
£4,000 a term today.
I was in the last year that got their uni fees paid for, my father often observed Uni cost him less than schooling me did.0 -
Of all the candidates they have chosen the one whose ability to process information under stress and make sound judgements has been demonstrably shown as flawed. Astonishing.SimonStClare said:
A Good choice, the death of an innocent Brazilian should not hinder one’s career...TheScreamingEagles said:Dick head of The Met now
https://twitter.com/skymarkwhite/status/8344094552572682240 -
This school is going to be massively oversubscribed. As such there will be an entry exam, and my guess is the (Eventual A-level) results will be outstanding.
That'll make it look very good indeed and I think the model may well be copied.
Essentially it is grammar schooling outwith the state.0 -
American History
Happy Birthday Mr. Washington! #OTD George Washington was born in 1732. #GW ranked second in our #cspanPOTUSsurvey https://t.co/ECS06QmAiC https://t.co/KN6ISGwXsy0 -
Which came first, the torture or the terrorist?
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/02/bbc-glories-death/0 -
The conspiracy theorists are going to go bananas.TwistedFireStopper said:
I guess that is going to be quite a controversial appointment.TheScreamingEagles said:Dick head of The Met now
https://twitter.com/skymarkwhite/status/834409455257268224
https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/deputy_assistant_commissioner_cr
etc.0 -
The private school nearest to me is an eye-watering price, but the results are no better than the local comp. Their fields are good to ride horses up the side of though.0
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Nah, rauchiness is in the eye of the beholder, and if you get it in her eye [rest redacted to preserve the innocence of PBers]Freggles said:
Private school, explains your obsession with ancient civilizations and raunchinessTheScreamingEagles said:
Same here, my alma mater charges £4,000 a term now, and you're a year old than me.Sandpit said:
My alma mater was a day school, fees were £500 a term when I started in 1989 and around £650 a term when I left in 1996.PlatoSaid said:
My girls' school was £345 a term, meals were £25 same period. That was Newcastle 1978 with little increases until I left 6th form. What's the inflation price now?Sandpit said:Here's something that could really shake up the education sector: £900 a term private school, and to hell with the swimming pools and playing fields.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/02/21/britains-first-cut-price-private-school-will-charge-parents/
£4,000 a term today.
I was in the last year that got their uni fees paid for, my father often observed Uni cost him less than schooling me did.0 -
Not sure you should use the word "academic" in relation to Dr Nuttall, whose PhD in football stadium policing is widely cited.DavidL said:I disagree with the header that Nuttall would be under pressure to resign as leader even if he wins but I think that is an entirely academic issue. He is not going to win, probably not even come second. It looks a good bet, may even pay off on Friday.
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Yep, and if they can hold the fees at those levels they'll have dozens of them open in short order.Pulpstar said:This school is going to be massively oversubscribed. As such there will be an entry exam, and my guess is the (Eventual A-level) results will be outstanding.
That'll make it look very good indeed and I think the model may well be copied.
Essentially it is grammar schooling outwith the state.
The private day schools have become an arms race of facilities, seeing fees inflation of so,etching like 10-12% per year for the las two decades. The public boarding schools are even worse, fees upwards of £30k mean they're now full of mainly foreign students from China, the Middle East and Russia. The rich locals here in the sandpit all try and get their kids into the British public schools.0 -
My wife works in a private school. The facilities and opportunities are amazing, but so are the fees.Sandpit said:
Yep, and if they can hold the fees at those levels they'll have dozens of them open in short order.Pulpstar said:This school is going to be massively oversubscribed. As such there will be an entry exam, and my guess is the (Eventual A-level) results will be outstanding.
That'll make it look very good indeed and I think the model may well be copied.
Essentially it is grammar schooling outwith the state.
The private day schools have become an arms race of facilities, seeing fees inflation of so,etching like 10-12% per year for the las two decades. The public boarding schools are even worse, fees upwards of £30k mean they're now full of mainly foreign students from China, the Middle East and Russia. The rich locals here in the sandpit all try and get their kids into the British public schools.0 -
It looks bad to turn people away and with sensitive stuff people will bend procedure as much as they can to allow people to submit their views, so I'm inclined to believe No.10 on this one. Stunt.MattW said:
He said. She said. No 10 says they didn't follow the procedure. They say they did.TheScreamingEagles said:There's a touch of Gordon Brown when it comes to Mrs May.
https://twitter.com/GwynneMP/status/834329709089529856
Who knows?
Even if you believe the petition will never be genuinely considered (as is the case with most, and some may even deserve that), politicians and officials go through the motions with such things so they can be appear to have met people half way.0 -
From my own experience, the main advantage of a private education is the smaller class sizes, the one on one teaching we got if we needed it.
I hear of schools with class sizes of 30 or more, and I can't comprehend it.0 -
I suspect weasel words. The petition was probably received by the copper on the gate ("not received by No10").kle4 said:
It looks bad to turn people away and with sensitive stuff people will bend procedure as much as they can to allow people to submit their views, so I'm inclined to believe No.10 on this one. Stunt.MattW said:
He said. She said. No 10 says they didn't follow the procedure. They say they did.TheScreamingEagles said:There's a touch of Gordon Brown when it comes to Mrs May.
https://twitter.com/GwynneMP/status/834329709089529856
Who knows?
Even if you believe the petition will never be genuinely considered (as is the case with most, and some may even deserve that), politicians and officials go through the motions with such things so they can be appear to have met people half way.0