politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Storm Doris to hit Stoke and Copeland tomorrow with winds of u

First ..... again!

Haven't the poor residents of Stoke already had enough punishment from a couple of windbags?

@CarlottaVance only 113 points? Merely a flesh wound!

Oh dear, what a shame. The 'Business for Scotland' SNP front totally independent organisation's leader has shut his only business - a 'social media consultancy' which he ran from his livingroom (sure it wasn't the spare room? - ed.) after losing 'a significant amount of money':

Gordon Macintyre-Kemp, who is behind a new fundraising campaign for a second referendum, put more than £50,000 into a social media consultancy that ended with net assets of £594.

Intelligise Limited, which was based at Mr Macintyre-Kemp’s home in Jordanhill in Glasgow, was “dissolved via voluntary strike-off” in February 2016, the Herald can reveal.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15105527.Business_for_Scotland_boss_admits_losing_money_on_his_business/?ref=twtrec

Will they change the name to 'Failed Business for Scotland'?

are you all hiding from Doris? or all canvassing?

Doris Stokes .... I wonder through what medium we'll see the result coming first and will it have any spiritual meaning to PBers ?

MattW said:

Back to topic (after a diversion via SNP ROFL).

In Stoke if I have been paying attention Labour have the strongest local activist base so a gale or snowstorm would presumably be in their favour.

The other factor will be postal votes - depressed turnout on the day will increase their share of the total ballot.....

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

I think you vastly underestimate the power of the Stoke UKIP candidate to influence the weather. A mere sweep of the hand of St Paul of Stoke will render UKIP voters immune from the vagaries of mere weather and render them effortlessly to the polls to ensure the coronation of the Great Leader.

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

Having dealt with all of the hot air and bluster emanating from Paul Nuttall, I am confident that the good people of Stoke are well prepared for this storm.

just browsing 538 - the oscars changed to AV from FPTP in 2010! who knew...

Doesn't this make phone banks all the more important? If it's too unpleasant to be out for hours, much easier to knock up by phone?

Perhaps a lesson for the Liberal .Metropolitan Elite though - there's been a debate about why Copeland is depopulating, hard to recruit key NHS staff in Whitehaven. If the LME have to try to work when it's rainy and windy, they might understand the problem a little more?

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

When were the postal votes issued ? People tend to return them almost straight away, so it's possible they were returned before the more recent embarrassments of Wing Commander Nuttall.

OldKingCole said:

There isn’t going be a hurricane, though!
Apparently nowadays the Met Office, and presumably other British forecasters tend to overplay bad weather, to avoid a ‘Michael Fish moment’!

Also if you are offering weather forecasting as a commercial product there are bound to be liabilities issues if your client uses your forecast of moderate weather and incurs a loss as a result.

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

I think it boosts a Con/Lab result chance, as you say. The Tories have become expert at postal voting which should help them in Copeland but started working Stoke seriously too late for it to matter there. Labour has a big organisational lead over UKIP.

ThreeQuidder said:

dugarbandier said:

just browsing 538 - the oscars changed to AV from FPTP in 2010! who knew...

The author gets a basic fact about AV wrong. Someone should educate him...

Hardly surprising given the dearth of explanatory threads on AV here.

CarlottaVance said:

Fourth! Like the Lib Dems in Stoke & Copeland! Maybe, or maybe not.....could be the Tories.....or UKIP.....

Joking apart, don't parties have a 'duty of care' to activists so if they encourage (hector/badger/persuade) them to go out canvassing tomorrow and one of them gets injured - having been warned of a danger of injury from flying debris - might they not be in a tricky position?

In every election that I've ever fought the party had insurance for this (and for injuries to voters being transported), and I had the impression it was mandatory, not just a Labour policy.

But in practice the problem on election day is to hold volunteers back from pushing themselves beyond what's sensible. I've never met a reluctant volunteer who had to be badgered - such people don't turn up, they sit at home and post on PB about how concerned they are by developments.

Sandpit: very very few people nowadays want car lifts - I think we had about 3 requests in Broxtowe in 2015. That's because people with diabilities sign up for postal votes, and others, if minded to vote, normally do have their own cars and prefer to uswe them.

swing_voter said:

Crikey, Doris Stokes ..

Cricket, Ben Stokes ..

Through the ether ..

P Nuttall - Caught Silly Point - Bowled Stoke's Electorate - 0

Rain Stopped Play ....

JackW said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

I think you vastly underestimate the power of the Stoke UKIP candidate to influence the weather. A mere sweep of the hand of St Paul of Stoke will render UKIP voters immune from the vagaries of mere weather and render them effortlessly to the polls to ensure the coronation of the Great Leader.

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

https://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

AlsoIndigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

When were the postal votes issued ? People tend to return them almost straight away, so it's possible they were returned before the more recent embarrassments of Wing Commander Nuttall.

My view, and this is just supposition, is that most people who Postal vote do so at the instigation of a political party. "So, Mr Smith, you plan on voting Labour. Can I just check you will be in Stoke on election day? Your night be busy, you say, well let me organise a postal vote for you." I'm not convinced (although I could be wrong) that UKIP has the Postal vote ground game down pat.

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

More than half the good people of Stoke did not vote on the pleasant May day in 2015. Perhaps that was driven by the choice of candidate available which was undoubtedly disappointing. If so, we could be looking at some pretty record lows this time out where someone merely disappointing would shine like a latter day Gladstone.

I suspect the country folk of Copeland will be more robust and not let a bit of weather put them off.

Very true, and with a 25% turnout in Stoke the result could be anything - four parties all over 20% maybe?

The hardy folk of Cumbria all know that a bit of rain, wind and snow doesn't mean the cows milk themselves, some jobs have to be done whatever the weather. Oh, and nuclear power stations run on the same principle! Expect a queue of Land Rovers and even tractors at the polling stations of Copeland tomorrow.

I resent all these implications that Cumbria is somehow hardier than Stoke btw. All that lot up there do is wander around admiring daffodils (or so I'm led to believe). Whereas yr average stokie is probably doing a backbreaking shift at the bet365 mines...

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

Fourth! Like the Lib Dems in Stoke & Copeland! Maybe, or maybe not.....could be the Tories.....or UKIP.....

Joking apart, don't parties have a 'duty of care' to activists so if they encourage (hector/badger/persuade) them to go out canvassing tomorrow and one of them gets injured - having been warned of a danger of injury from flying debris - might they not be in a tricky position?

In every election that I've ever fought the party had insurance for this (and for injuries to voters being transported), and I had the impression it was mandatory, not just a Labour policy.

But in practice the problem on election day is to hold volunteers back from pushing themselves beyond what's sensible. I've never met a reluctant volunteer who had to be badgered - such people don't turn up, they sit at home and post on PB about how concerned they are by developments.

Sandpit: very very few people nowadays want car lifts - I think we had about 3 requests in Broxtowe in 2015. That's because people with diabilities sign up for postal votes, and others, if minded to vote, normally do have their own cars and prefer to uswe them.

Interesting point on car lifts, I did a few in 2010 where we did evening canvassing and said we could go now if they wanted a lift to the polling station. I imagine that if it's raining the proverbial cats and dogs and blowing a gale, then a nice man offering a lift down the road to those without a car would be warmly received.

The headline will be " ___________ blown away."

rcs1000 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

rcs1000 said:

Re Stoke and weather: surely this increases the importance of postal votes, thus boosting Labour (which has a ground game) at the expense of UKIP. So the possibility of a surprise is diminished.

In Copeland, it probably boosts the Tories, who I suspect are better organised there. But, it also provides a ready made excuse for Jeremy Corbyn: yes we lost Copeland, but under exceptional circumstances where turnout dropped below 30% due to Hurricane Doris.

When were the postal votes issued ? People tend to return them almost straight away, so it's possible they were returned before the more recent embarrassments of Wing Commander Nuttall.

My view, and this is just supposition, is that most people who Postal vote do so at the instigation of a political party. "So, Mr Smith, you plan on voting Labour. Can I just check you will be in Stoke on election day? Your night be busy, you say, well let me organise a postal vote for you." I'm not convinced (although I could be wrong) that UKIP has the Postal vote ground game down pat.

Postal votes are mostly used by the elderly who, as we know, overwhelmingly favour the Tories.

notme said:

SouthamObserver said:

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

Because we would never get others doing similar things:
https://goo.gl/images/NGqQjG

Oh, that's OK then.

Those hoping Brexit would mean higher wages for the low paid and less EU immigration will be rejoicing this morning:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/834180531067691008

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

AlastairMeeks said:

SouthamObserver said:

White supremacy in the White House.
https://twitter.com/prudentesfuturi/status/834297489758920705

What do you expect from an administration that is currently arguing with the Anne Frank Center over its attitude to anti-Semitism?

The black vote was down last November. It's going to need epic voter suppression to ensure that remains the case in 2020.

Dixie said:

CarlottaVance said:

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

We need more entertainers like Doris. We've only got an octopus these days!

Yes but what an octopus President Trump is proving to be - couldn't keep his tentacles off the ladies and now he's got his mits all over world wide policy.

That's entertainment ..

JackW said:

Dixie said:

CarlottaVance said:

For the youngsters for whom Doris Stokes belongs in ancient history (she died a decade before Tony Blair came into office) a taste of her act:

https://youtu.be/Pv4DSJlj3NQ

We need more entertainers like Doris. We've only got an octopus these days!

Yes but what an octopus President Trump is proving to be - couldn't keep his tentacles off the ladies and now he's got his mits all over world wide policy.

That's entertainment ..

But, after the Secretary of State appointment that wasn't, not his Mitt.

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

As I said yesterday, ignoring him doesn't work. The Milobots will just spam places with his awesomeness. As has happened on here.

People with extreme views need challenging, not ignoring; and that's true whatever direction the extremism may be in. Yes, some of his opponents go too far. But the solution is not to leave him unchallenged.

Fortunately he's been the architect of his own demise.

Good morning, everyone.

Might the adverse weather bolster the blues and yellows?

It may harm Labour the most, due to their voters often not bothering anyway.

JosiasJessop said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

As I said yesterday, ignoring him doesn't work. The Milobots will just spam places with his awesomeness. As has happened on here.

People with extreme views need challenging, not ignoring; and that's true whatever direction the extremism may be in. Yes, some of his opponents go too far. But the solution is not to leave him unchallenged.

Fortunately he's been the architect of his own demise.

Challenging with reasoned debate and by putting an argument sensibly, soberly and backed by facts and evidence. Screaming at people and insulting them, never mind punching them in the face, doesnt change minds, it drives people into a bunker where you dont know what they think until they comes out and vote.

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

I would rather ISIS suicide bombers were blowing themselves up a long way away from me, rather than locally.

Jonathan said:

The headline will be " ___________ blown away."

Shurely "Raining on UKIP's parade?"

tlg86 said:

rottenborough said:

tlg86 said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

That was the lead story at 6am on Sky News. Oddly it wasn't the lead story on the BBC.

It was David Blunket, not Tony Blair. BBC covered the story as lead item on BBC News at 10pm. Didn't mention the actual figure of compensation, which probably wasn't known at the time.

That's the thing with BBC News, blink and you miss it. Unless it's about Paul Nuttall or the NHS, in which case the story will be repeated over and over again.

So we've gone from 'it wasn't the lead story' to 'it was but not for long enough'?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

A bullet in the back of the head would have done the trick.
President Duterte has the right approach,

Oh yes, the man whose killing spree needed to be halted as the police themselves had, at best, murderous elements.

Mr. kle4, there was an interesting, brief, mention of that in Ian Mortimer's excellent The Time Traveller's Guide to Medieval England (and, ahem, by me in my most recent blog: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/coins-and-money-in-history.html ).

Imagine if, today, working conditions improved drastically due to 30% of the population dying of incurable disease.

Alistair said:

Sandpit said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Laurie Penny writes a very good very long piece about Milo whatshisface:

hps://twitter.com/pennyred/status/834200815032086528

What is it about people like Penny, who think that people who disagree with them should be subject to physical violence?

The way one deals with a troll like Milo is just to ignore him until he goes away, he loves it when certain sections of the left go collectively nuts about him!

I think you misunderstand the subtitle. Its not that Penny thinks he should be punched in the face its that she thinks Milo wants to be punched in the face as the ultimate validation of his strategy.

It wasn't just the title, skimming the article there were several references to it being well deserved if Milo and his followers were subjected to physical assault. It's the same mentality that thought it was hilarious when someone got sucker-punched while being interviewed on live TV on Inauguration Day, just because that someone was of the right and those of the left found him offensive.

The way one stands up to the Milos of this world is either to ignore or to engage in reasoned debate. Calling him 'isms' and wanting him beaten up isn't engaging in anything like reasonable debate.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

A bullet in the back of the head would have done the trick.
President Duterte has the right approach,

bloody pb liberals

dugarbandier said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

AlsoIndigo said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

AlsoIndigo said:

This ISIS suicide bomber from Gitmo seems to be putting one final nail in Tony Blair's reputational coffin, after he assured everyone that these extremists posed no danger, and gave him a million quid of taxpayers money, which he apparently gave straight to ISIS. Nice work Tony

And nice work Tony for letting him sneak out of the country to join ISIS, and later let his wife follow. Oh, hold on, that was Dave, not Tony.

How do you propose Dave stopped a free citizen from leaving the country ? Once Tony let him off the damage was done.

A bullet in the back of the head would have done the trick.
President Duterte has the right approach,

bloody pb liberals

I know.
Getting soft in my old age.

Talking of electoral duties, I was Returning Officer in the Oxford Union one election and had to help a very old voter who was partially sighted vote. Going through the list of candidates at one name he demanded "Is that the Jew boy?" Awkward pause, then "Vote for him".

CarlottaVance said:

Talking of electoral duties, I was Returning Officer in the Oxford Union one election and had to help a very old voter who was partially sighted vote. Going through the list of candidates at one name he demanded "Is that the Jew boy?" Awkward pause, then "Vote for him".

I was at a polling station and a very long bearded Rabbi asked me if I could help him as his sight wasn't too good so I went into the little booth with him and asked where he wanted his cross. He looked at me like I was mad and said 'Conservative of course!'

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

So we've gone from 'it wasn't the lead story' to 'it was but not for long enough'

It's good question, how long should a story stay in the cycle for? The news broke after the Six O'clock News but was clearly available by 10pm (I went to bed after the football, so missed it). To be fair it's still on the front of the News page on the BBC website, but we all know the BBC would rather not talk about such a story.

How much time a story deserves is perhaps a reasonable thing to ask, and indeed criticise. I didn't see either news broadcast, I was just clarifying because the criticism of not giving enough time, or too much to less important matters, is far less serious than outright not covering it or burying it.

Fair enough, I agree. The other night it got to ten past six and having interviewed the health editor (following the usual piece about the NHS), the anchor turned to the camera and I really thought she was going to say "and now the News."